Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

This line favors the visiting Chiefs by 3 points and typically the Steelers are a good bet as underdogs, going 57-39 ATS since Mike Tomlin’s first season in 2007, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs of three or fewer, as they tend to play and win a lot of close games (104-64 in one-score games under Mike Tomlin, the best record in the league over that time period). However, the Chiefs also have played and won a lot of close games this season, going 11-0 in one-score games, and, as a result of that, they have covered at a high rate unless they are big favorites, going 0-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or fewer and 7-3 ATS in their other games.

As a result of all their close victories, both teams are worse in first down rate differential and yards per play differential than their records suggest, as the Chiefs are +1.24% in first down rate differential and -0.15 in yards per play differential, while the Steelers are -2.20% in first down rate differential and -0.23 yards in per play differential. Both of those metrics are more predictive than win/loss record, although both teams have shown the ability to consistently win close games at a much higher rate than average.

Ultimately, this pick comes down to injuries. The Steelers have the advantage in that aspect, even though they’ll be without top cornerback Joey Porter after he got hurt in last week’s game, as they’ll get back top wide receiver George Pickens, talented safety DeShon Elliott, and starting cornerback Donte Jackson from absences of three games, two games, and one game respectively, while the Chiefs could be without stud interior defender Chris Jones for the first time this season, which would a huge absence. My calculated line with Jones out is Kansas City -1 and with him in it’s Kansas City -3. With Jones uncertain, I am going to take the Steelers for a no confidence pick at +3 for now and upgrade it to low confidence if Jones is out and the line doesn’t move.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: None