Seattle Seahawks (8-7) at Chicago Bears (4-11)

The Bears started the season 4-2 across an easy schedule, but have since lost nine straight games and are statistically one of the worst teams in the league overall. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are more predictive than win/loss record, the Bears rank 30th at -3.82% and dead last at -1.23 respectively. They’re also pretty banged up right now, missing four week 1 starters due to injury, including left tackle Braxton Jones, left guard Teven Jenkins, who both went down in last week’s loss to the Lions.

The Seahawks aren’t a great team, but they are slightly above in first down rate differential (+0.55%) and yards per play differential (+0.05) and they are healthier overall, only missing two week 1 starters due to injury. Unfortunately, this line favors the visiting Seahawks by 3.5, which is the worst line to bet, with 3.5 point favorites covering at just a 47.8% rate, lower than any other single line. That’s because about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly 3, more than are decided by 4-6 points combined, meaning in terms of real probability, 3.5 is closer to 6.5 than 2.5. My calculated line is Seattle -6, so we’re still getting some line value with the Seahawks, but not as much as we would be if this line was -3.

The Seahawks are also in a bad spot, with a much tougher game against the Rams on deck, while the Bears are in a good spot in their second straight game as home dogs after a big loss. Teams cover at just a 45.5% rate as favorites when facing an opponent with a winning percentage under 35% when their next opponent will have a winning percentage more than 35% better than their current opponent. That should be slightly neutralized by the fact that the Seahawks probably have to win both of their final two games to make the post-season, but they still might not bring their best effort for this game. Meanwhile, home underdogs like the Bears cover at a 54.8% rate after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs the week before. I am still taking the Seahawks for pick ‘em purposes, but there isn’t nearly enough here for them to be bettable.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: None