Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6)

The Cardinals are a decent team statistically on the season, with a slightly above average point differential (+2), yards per play differential (+0.30), and first down rate differential (+0.39%), which are all more predictive than win/loss record, where the Cardinals sit at just 7-8. However, a big part of the reason for that is the Cardinals have had relatively few key injuries this season and that is starting to change. The Cardinals were dealt a big blow last week when stud left tackle Paris Johnson was ruled out for a must win game against the Panthers, a game the Cardinals subsequently lost in overtime, eliminating the Cardinals from playoff contention. 

Now, with the Cardinals’ season effectively over, Johnson has been shut down for the rest of the season, as has right tackle Jonah Williams. Williams was one of the few Cardinals to miss significant time with injury early in the season, missing 10 games in total, but the Cardinals got solid play out of veteran backup Kelvin Beachum in his absence. Now with both Johnson and Williams out, Beachum will start at left tackle and practice squad call up Jackson Barton will start at right tackle, which should lead to significantly diminished play at both tackle spots. The Cardinals could also be without stud lead back James Conner due to a knee injury he suffered last week. Conner saw limited practices every day this week, which normally would almost definitely mean he would play, but with the Cardinals out of playoff contention, they may opt to play it safe with him, which would be a big blow to this offense.

This line has moved to heavily compensate for the Cardinals’ injuries and elimination from the post-season though, probably more than it should have. The Cardinals have gone from 3-point road underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams on the early line last week to 5-point road underdogs earlier this week to now 7-point road underdogs, in large part due to the injury updates. Not only are the odds makers compensating for the Cardinals’ injuries, but they seem to be thinking the Cardinals won’t bring their best effort this week after being eliminated from the post-season, which seems unlikely, given that this is still a divisional rivalry game and given that the Cardinals are a well coached team under Jonathan Gannon who continued to play hard down the stretch last season despite a terrible roster that was going nowhere, going 3-5 after a 1-8 start.

On top of that, the Rams have an injury concern of their own, with right tackle Rob Havenstein suffering a shoulder injury in practice on Wednesday and subsequently missing Thursday’s practice and being listed as questionable on the final injury report. Despite the Rams’ 9-6 record, they actually rank behind the Cardinals in yards per play differential (-0.26) and point differential (-18), only having an edge in first down rate differential (+1.31%). They have played a lot better in recent weeks, winning eight of their last ten games after a 1-4 start, largely coinciding with the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to the lineup in week 8 after early season injuries. That hot stretch has also included four straight wins, fully coinciding with the Rams’ offensive line being fully healthy for the first time all season in week 13, but Havenstein’s potential absence would hurt them at least somewhat. 

With Conner and Havenstein factored in as truly questionable and factoring in that the Rams have below average homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds favoring the road team (+1.9 point per game average point differential at home, +1.1 point per game average point differential on the road since their first season in Los Angeles in 2016), my calculated line has the Rams as 5-point favorites, which gives us pretty decent line value with the Cardinals at +7. I am not placing a bet on the Cardinals right now because of the uncertainty around the status of Havenstein and Conner, but depending on whether or not those two play and depending on where this line ends up, I could end up placing a bet on the Cardinals and, either way, the Cardinals seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Arizona Cardinals 26

Pick against the spread: Arizona +7

Confidence: Low