Denver Broncos (9-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

This is a matchup of two teams that tend to get better as the year goes on after a slow start. Broncos coach Sean Payton consistently did that in his previous job with the New Orleans Saints and has continued that in his first two seasons with the Broncos. In total as a head coach, Payton is 11-22-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season and 146-105–5 ATS after that. This season, the Broncos lost their first two games of the season, but have gone 9-4 (10-3 ATS) since then. Last season, it took them a little longer in Sean Payton’s first season in Denver, as they started 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS), before going 7-4 (6-5 ATS) the rest of the way. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS and 1-9 straight up in the first two weeks of the season in the Zac Taylor/Joe Burrow era and 49-27-2 ATS and 46-31 straight up after those first two weeks. This season, they lost their first three games of the season, but are 7-5 straight up and 8-4 ATS since then. Those two trends should cancel out and, with that in mind, the Bengals should be the better pick, as 3-point home favorites. 

The Broncos have a two game lead on them in the standings, but the Bengals have a first down rate differential of +1.05% and a yards per play differential of +0.27, as opposed to -0.11% and +0.19 for the Broncos. The Bengals also have a 3-point edge in my roster rankings, in part due to their offense now being fully healthy, with left tackle Orlando Brown notably set to return this week after missing six of the Bengals’ last seven games. My calculated line has the Bengals favored by 4.5 in this game, so we’re getting decent line value with them, but not quite enough for them to be worth betting.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Denver Broncos 22

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Low