Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) at New England Patriots (3-12)

This game is a tough call. The Chargers are only favored by four points on the road, where they tend to overperform expectations as a result of not having any homefield advantage in Los Angeles (27-34 ATS at home, 37-26 ATS on the road since their first season in Los Angeles in 2017). My roster rankings give the Chargers a huge advantage over the Patriots, about 11.5 points and PFF has the Chargers ranked 6th in overall team grade, as opposed to 30th for the Patriots.

However, the Chargers have a much smaller advantage in terms of yards per play differential (-0.07 vs. -0.69) and first down rate differential (-0.08% vs. -3.20%), which are the most predictive statistics. My calculated line, combining my roster rankings and those statistical rankings, while factoring in the Chargers’ tendency to over-perform on the road, favors the Chargers by 6.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Chargers, but it’s not quite enough for them to be worth betting, especially given the conflicting analysis between my roster rankings and statistical measures.

Update: Jabrill Peppers is out for the Patriots, while JK Dobbins and Elijah Molden are in for the Chargers, which was best case scenario for the Chargers from the inactives. This line has moved up to 5.5, but that’s not a big deal because games are rarely decided by 4-5 points. If you can get still -5.5, the Chargers are worth betting.

Los Angeles Chargers 26 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -5.5

Confidence: Medium