Carolina Panthers (4-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

The Panthers pulled off an upset win over the Cardinals last week, but that puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at just a 43.6% rate as underdogs of four or more after an upset win as underdogs of four points or more. Even with that upset win, the Panthers still rank dead last in first down rate differential at -6.02% and 29th in yards per play differential at -0.74, while their opponents this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rank 3rd in first down rate differential at 3.83% and 5th in yards per play differential at +0.56, which are by far the two most predictive team statistics. 

The Panthers have gotten better as the season has gone on due to improved play by quarterback Bryce Young and an improved injury situation, but that injury situation is starting to deteriorate quickly, as the Panthers will be missing at least seven, potentially nine week 1 starters due to injury in this game, depending on the status of top interior defender A’Shawn Robinson and top edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, who are legitimately questionable for this game. Even just since last week, the Panthers have lost talented right tackle Taylor Moton, feature back Chuba Hubbard, top cornerback Jaycee Horn, and top linebacker Josey Jewell, as well as potentially Clowney and Robinson, all of whom played last week.

The Buccaneers have their own injury concerns, missing at least three, potentially five week 1 starters, depending on the status of linebacker KJ Britt and safety Jordan Whitehead, but most of their injured starters have been out for several weeks and, even with the Buccaneers’ injuries factored in, the Buccaneers still have a significant edge in my roster rankings in every position group except the receiving corps, which is about equal. My calculated line for this game is Tampa Bay -13, so we’re getting significant line value with the Buccaneers at -8. When you add in that the Panthers are in a bad spot this week, the Buccaneers are a great bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -8

Confidence: High