Dallas Cowboys (7-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)

The Cowboys pulled off an upset win over the Buccaneers last week, but that puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at just a 43.6% rate as underdogs of four or more after an upset win as underdogs of four points or more. The Cowboys also lost the first down rate battle by 9.40% and the yards per play battle by 0.21 in that game, which is much more predictive of future winning than final scores are. On the season, the Cowboys have a first down rate differential of -3.22% (28th in the NFL) and a yards per play differential of -0.72% (27th in the NFL). Meanwhile, their opponents’ this week, the Philadelphia Eagles, rank 6th in first down rate differential at +2.31% and 4th in yards per play differential at +0.87.

The Eagles are missing their starting quarterback Jalen Hurts due to a concussion in this game, his first absence of the season, but they are arguably still the healthier team, as the Cowboys are missing at least seven week one starters due to injury, potentially up to nine, depending on the status of questionable linebacker Eric Kendricks and questionable safety Donovan Wilson, who barely practiced this week. The most notable new injury for the Cowboys is stud wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Eagles, meanwhile, will only be missing a maximum of four week one starters, including Hurts, potentially only three, depending on questionable edge defender Bryce Huff. In terms of SIC Score, the Eagles are at 88.8, while the Cowboys are at 82.4.

With all these injuries taken into account, my roster rankings still have the Eagles 11 points better than the Cowboys, with the Eagles having the edge in every single position group on both sides of the ball. This line, which was -11 on the early line last week, has dropped down to 7, so we’re getting great line value with the Eagles at home in this one. Between that and the bad spot the Cowboys are in, the Eagles look like a great bet this week at -7. I would also bet them at -7.5, but for a smaller amount.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 10

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High