Detroit Lions (13-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9)

These two teams met in the NFC Championship game last season, with the 49ers narrowly pulling out the victory at home, but things have gone very differently for these two teams since then, as the Lions have arguably been even better than last season, currently sitting as the #1 overall seed in the NFC, while the 49ers have fallen out of the playoffs completely, officially getting eliminated with last week’s loss in Miami, which dropped them to 6-9. However, these two teams aren’t that far apart statistically, as the 49ers rank 5th at +2.69% in first down rate differential and 3rd at +1.06 in yards per play differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss record, while the Lions rank 2nd at +5.11% in first down rate differential and 6th at +0.54 in yards per play differential. 

The 49ers have a lot of injuries, missing seven week 1 starters, including key players like wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, right tackle Colton McKivitz, and interior defender Javon Hargrave. They’re particularly banged up on the offensive line, where they aren’t just missing Williams, McKivitz, and left guard Aaron Banks, but also their backups at left tackle and left guard, and they are down to their fourth string running back as well. However, the Lions have a ton of injuries as well, also missing seven week 1 starters, and they only have a 3.5-point edge in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good value with the 49ers as 3.5-point home underdogs, with my calculated line at Detroit -1.5, crossing the key number of three (1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly).

In a lot of ways, this 49ers’ team reminds me of their 2020 team. A year after losing the Super Bowl, the 2020 San Francisco 49ers led the league in adjusted games lost to injury and finished 6-10, despite finishing the season 4th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. After that team seemed to bottom out late in the season, they won by eight points as 5-point underdogs in Arizona in week 16, against a team that was 8-6 coming into that game, and then in week 17 they lost by three as 7-point underdogs against the Seahawks, who came into that game at 11-4. I think this team will fare similarly well in this rematch with the Lions this week, which they should be focused for, even after being eliminated. They have at least a decent chance to pull the upset, but, even if they don’t, they have a great chance of keeping it close and covering, as 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer.

Detroit Lions 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +3.5

Confidence: Medium