Green Bay Packers (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (13-2)

These two teams are pretty evenly matched. The Packers have a big edge in yards per play differential (+1.08 vs. +0.36), while the Vikings have a big edge in first down rate differential (+3.54% vs. +1.98%). In my roster rankings, these two teams are about even at quarterback, on the offensive line, and in the secondary, with the Vikings having the edge on the defensive line and in the receiving corps and the Packers having the edge at running back and in the linebacking corps. My calculated line is Minnesota -2, which is essentially the same as the actual line at Minnesota -1.5.

However, the Packers are in a significantly better spot than the Vikings this week, for a couple reasons. For one, the Packers are coming off of a blowout victory on Monday Night Football (34-0) and that tends to carry into the next week, as teams cover at a 59.0% rate the week after a victory by 21 points or more on Monday Night Football. The Packers did lose at home to the Vikings earlier this season, losing by two as 3-point favorites, but that actually works in their favor this week, as evenly matched divisional opponents tend to split the season series, with road underdogs covering at a 57.0% rate in same season, regular season rematches against a team that they previously lost to as home favorites. There isn’t enough here for the Packers to be bettable against the spread, but the money line is worth a small bet.

Green Bay Packers 26 Minnesota Vikings 24 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +1.5

Confidence: Low