Miami Dolphins (7-8) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)

Earlier in the week, the Dolphins were favored by 6.5 in this game in Cleveland against the Dolphins, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle have since been ruled out and this line has dropped to 3.5. I originally had a low confidence pick on the Browns at +6.5 with a calculated line of Miami -4.5 and I think this line is still too high. In four games without Tua Tagovailoa earlier this season, the Dolphins averaged just 10 points per game and that was with Waddle on the field. 

The Browns have their own offensive issues with third string Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center and key players like Nick Chubb, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku out, but they still have a great defense. With all the injuries factored in, the Dolphins have just a 3.5-point edge in my roster rankings, giving us a calculated line of Miami -1.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Browns at home at +3.5 and this should be a low scoring game, so getting more than a field goal with the Dolphins is very intriguing. I would still pick the Browns at +3, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Miami Dolphins 12 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: Medium