Month: December 2024

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (8-7) at Chicago Bears (4-11)

The Bears started the season 4-2 across an easy schedule, but have since lost nine straight games and are statistically one of the worst teams in the league overall. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are more predictive than win/loss record, the Bears rank 30th at -3.82% and dead last at -1.23 respectively. They’re also pretty banged up right now, missing four week 1 starters due to injury, including left tackle Braxton Jones, left guard Teven Jenkins, who both went down in last week’s loss to the Lions.

The Seahawks aren’t a great team, but they are slightly above in first down rate differential (+0.55%) and yards per play differential (+0.05) and they are healthier overall, only missing two week 1 starters due to injury. Unfortunately, this line favors the visiting Seahawks by 3.5, which is the worst line to bet, with 3.5 point favorites covering at just a 47.8% rate, lower than any other single line. That’s because about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly 3, more than are decided by 4-6 points combined, meaning in terms of real probability, 3.5 is closer to 6.5 than 2.5. My calculated line is Seattle -6, so we’re still getting some line value with the Seahawks, but not as much as we would be if this line was -3.

The Seahawks are also in a bad spot, with a much tougher game against the Rams on deck, while the Bears are in a good spot in their second straight game as home dogs after a big loss. Teams cover at just a 45.5% rate as favorites when facing an opponent with a winning percentage under 35% when their next opponent will have a winning percentage more than 35% better than their current opponent. That should be slightly neutralized by the fact that the Seahawks probably have to win both of their final two games to make the post-season, but they still might not bring their best effort for this game. Meanwhile, home underdogs like the Bears cover at a 54.8% rate after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs the week before. I am still taking the Seahawks for pick ‘em purposes, but there isn’t nearly enough here for them to be bettable.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Houston Texans (9-6)

The Ravens are only one game better than the Texans in the standings, but they have a huge edge in point differential (+103 vs. +20), first down rate differential (+5.45% vs. +0.50%), and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. +0.16), which are all significantly more predictive than win/loss records. That’s despite the fact that the Ravens have faced a significantly tougher schedule than the Texans, with an opponent’s win percentage of .529, as opposed to .484 for the Texans. 

The Ravens are also much healthier than the Texans. The Ravens have been one of the least injured teams in the league this season, but they’re even healthier now than they have been, as they don’t have a single week one starter absent for this game. The Texans, on the other hand, are missing seven, including wide receiver Tank Dell, safety Jimmie Ward, and right guard Shaq Mason, a trio of key players who went down last week in the Texans’ loss to the Chiefs. In their current injury situations, the Ravens have a 11-point edge over the Texans, giving us a calculated line of Baltimore -9. This isn’t a big bet, but there’s enough line value with the Ravens at -5.5 for this to be worth betting.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

This line favors the visiting Chiefs by 3 points and typically the Steelers are a good bet as underdogs, going 57-39 ATS since Mike Tomlin’s first season in 2007, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs of three or fewer, as they tend to play and win a lot of close games (104-64 in one-score games under Mike Tomlin, the best record in the league over that time period). However, the Chiefs also have played and won a lot of close games this season, going 11-0 in one-score games, and, as a result of that, they have covered at a high rate unless they are big favorites, going 0-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or fewer and 7-3 ATS in their other games.

As a result of all their close victories, both teams are worse in first down rate differential and yards per play differential than their records suggest, as the Chiefs are +1.24% in first down rate differential and -0.15 in yards per play differential, while the Steelers are -2.20% in first down rate differential and -0.23 yards in per play differential. Both of those metrics are more predictive than win/loss record, although both teams have shown the ability to consistently win close games at a much higher rate than average.

Ultimately, this pick comes down to injuries. The Steelers have the advantage in that aspect, even though they’ll be without top cornerback Joey Porter after he got hurt in last week’s game, as they’ll get back top wide receiver George Pickens, talented safety DeShon Elliott, and starting cornerback Donte Jackson from absences of three games, two games, and one game respectively, while the Chiefs could be without stud interior defender Chris Jones for the first time this season, which would a huge absence. My calculated line with Jones out is Kansas City -1 and with him in it’s Kansas City -3. With Jones uncertain, I am going to take the Steelers for a no confidence pick at +3 for now and upgrade it to low confidence if Jones is out and the line doesn’t move.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: None

2024 Week 16 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

TB 28 (-3.5) DAL 20

High Confidence Picks

SEA 24 (+3) MIN 23 Upset Pick +135

Medium Confidence Picks

BAL 27 (-6.5) PIT 17

ATL 23 (-8.5) NYG 10

DET 27 (-6.5) CHI 17

Low Confidence Picks

SF 19 (+1.5) MIA 17 Upset Pick +105

LAC 20 (-2.5) DEN 17

IND 20 TEN 17 (+3.5)

JAX 17 (+2) LV 16 Upset Pick +110

LAR 31 (-3) NYJ 27

No Confidence Picks

ARZ 27 CAR 23 (+4.5)

BUF 31 NE 17 (+14.5)

CIN 27 (-9.5) CLE 17

PHI 24 (-3.5) WAS 19

KC 20 HOU 17 (+3.5)

GB 27 NO 13 (+14.5)

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)

Early in the week, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs in this game, as the oddsmakers seemed to be preparing for a Patrick Mahomes absence due to the ankle injury he suffered in last week’s win over the Browns. I locked in a small bet on the money line (+120) at that point because I thought Mahomes had a chance to play, in which case we’d obviously be getting great value with the Chiefs, and, even if he didn’t play, I still thought the Chiefs had a better than 50/50 shot to win, for a number of reasons. 

Mahomes is obviously a great quarterback who would be missed, but he hasn’t played up to his usual standard this season. The Chiefs also have a good backup in Carson Wentz and good teams tend to play well with backup quarterbacks to compensate for their quarterback’s absence. The Chiefs also still have a good defense that ranks 7th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed, while their offense ranks just 24th in yards per play and 13th in first down rate. On top of that, the Texans are an overrated team that has not played as well as their record, with seven of their nine victories coming by eight points or fewer. The Chiefs are also overrated with a lot of close victories, but Mahomes is a big part of why they are overrated and, without him, I don’t think they would be overrated.

However, it looks like Mahomes is going to play in this game after all and this line has shifted significantly to compensate, moving six points all the way to Kansas City -3.5. I don’t like the Chiefs nearly that much at that number, as that’s a huge line movement for one player, especially one that will likely be playing at less than 100%. My calculated line with Mahomes in the lineup is Kansas City -5, even before factoring in that he could be significantly limited by injury or suffer a setback and have to come out of the game. That line of -5 isn’t actually that different from -3.5, as games are rarely decided by 4 or 5 points. With that in mind, I actually like the Texans for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Steelers are typically a good bet as underdogs under Mike Tomlin, going 57-38 ATS since Tomlin’s first season in 2007. However, they do have a strong trend working against them in this spot, as teams are 44-61 ATS as underdogs in a same-season regular season divisional rematch against a team they already beat as underdogs earlier in the season, as it’s very tough to pull an upset against the same team twice in the same season. It’s a small sample size obviously, but the Steelers lost and failed to cover the only time they were in that situation under Mike Tomlin, even as good as they are as underdogs in general.

With that in mind, I think the Ravens are bettable as 6.5-point favorites this week. The Steelers have the better record, but the Ravens have significant advantages in first down rate differential (5.31% vs. -1.79%) and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. -0.14), which are much more predictive than win-loss records. In the Ravens’ loss to the Steelers earlier this season, the Ravens won the first down rate battle by 4.89% and the yards per play differential by 2.00, only losing by two because they lost the turnover battle by two and missed two field goals, which are both much less predictive than yards per play and first down rate. The Ravens also have a 7-point edge in my roster rankings.

It might seem weird to bet a big favorite against a team with a better record, but teams are 140-108 ATS all-time in week 11 or later as favorites of 3.5 or more against a team with a better record than them, as teams tend to be big favorites in that situation for a good reason. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but I wouldn’t worry about the Steelers having the better record when evaluating this game. This isn’t a big bet, but the Ravens are worth betting this week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

The Broncos got off to a slow start this season, losing their first two games of the season, games in which they lost the first down rate battle by a combined 6.98% and the yards per play battle by a combined 0.50. However, since then, they have won 9 of 12 games, while going 10-2 ATS. This is nothing new for Sean Payton coached teams, as Payton is 146-104-5 ATS in week 3 or later in his career, as opposed to 11-22-1 in weeks 1 and 2. That’s mostly from his time in New Orleans, but, in addition to this season, a similar thing happened last season in Payton’s first season in Denver, although it took a little bit longer, as they started 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS), before going 7-4 (6-5 ATS) the rest of the way.

With the Broncos’ improvement since early in the season, they have moved up to -0.02% in first down rate differential and +0.24 in yards per play differential on the season, despite how terribly they played in the first two weeks of the season. That’s actually slightly above their opponents this week, the Los Angeles Chargers, who are at a -0.28% first down rate differential and a -0.12 yards per play differential. When you add in that the Chargers lack a significant homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds that favor the road team, (26-34-3 ATS at home in Los Angeles since their first season in 2017), we get a little bit of line value with the Broncos at +2.5 when you look at it purely from a statistical standpoint.

However, my roster rankings have the Chargers with a 5-point edge, almost exclusively due to the Chargers massive advantage at the quarterback position with Justin Herbert (4th among quarterbacks on PFF) over Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix (24th among quarterbacks on PFF). Aside from the quarterback position, these two teams are pretty even, but the Chargers’ advantage at the game’s most important position can’t be ignored. The Chargers actually are one of the two teams to cover against the Broncos since week 2, doing so in a 7-point victory as 3-point favorites in week 6, in large part to Herbert (75.8 QBR) significantly outplaying Nix (53.4 QBR).

My calculated line when we look at roster rankings gives the Chargers a bigger advantage than my calculated line when we look at it from a statistical standpoint and my overall calculated line when taking everything into account is Chargers -3, so I am taking the Chargers for pick ‘em purposes, but there is too much conflicting analysis for me to confidently bet the Chargers, especially at home against a coach in Sean Payton who covers at a high rate outside of the first two weeks of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers 20 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: Low

2024 Week 15 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

DET 30 (-2.5) BUF 24

High Confidence Picks

ATL 20 (-3.5) LV 12

Medium Confidence Picks

NYJ 19 JAX 17 (+3.5)

DEN 19 IND 17 (+4.5)

MIN 26 (-6.5) CHI 17

ARZ 28 (-6) NE 19

Low Confidence Picks

SEA 24 (+2.5) GB 23 Upset Pick +120

SF 24 LAR 23 (+3)

LAC 24 (-3) TB 20

KC 23 CLE 20 (+4.5)

CIN 26 (-4.5) TEN 20

No Confidence Picks

HOU 20 (-2.5) MIA 17

WAS 24 NO 17 (+7.5)

BAL 27 (-16) NYG 10

PHI 24 PIT 19 (+5.5)

CAR 23 (-2.5) DAL 20

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2024 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (7-6) at San Francisco 49ers (6-7)

Both of these teams had impressive results last week. The Rams pulled the upset over the Bills, who are one of the best teams in the league, winning by a final score of 44-42. The 49ers faced a much easier opponent in the Chicago Bears, but blew them out convincingly, winning 38-13, while outgaining them by 4.29 yards per play and converting first downs at a 8.56% higher rate. Of those two results, the Rams’ looks much less fluky. Last week’s victory was the Rams’ sixth in eight games, including victories over the Rams and Seahawks, in addition to that win over the Bills. Meanwhile the 49ers’ win snapped a three game losing streak, including two straight losses by 25+ points, one of which came just one week prior against the same Bills team that the Rams defeated last week.

Injuries are the primary reason for these two teams generally heading in the opposite direction. Last week was only the Rams’ second game all season with their expected starting five offensive linemen all healthy at the same time, while their recent stretch of strong play largely coincides with the return of their two stud wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup in their week 8 victory over the Vikings. Overall, the Rams are one of the healthiest teams in the league right now, as none of the players who are expected to miss this game with injury being key players, with cornerback Cobie Durant, a decent starter, being their most notable absence. That kind of health simply was not the case for this team for most of the season.

For the 49ers, the situation is very different. Among others, the 49ers are most notably missing running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, and potentially defensive end Nick Bosa, all of whom were among the best players in the league at their respective positions during the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl last week. Bosa’s return would be big and it seems like the 49ers will get back linebacker Dre Greenlaw for the first time this season, but Bosa could be on the wrong side of questionable having gotten in just one limited practice this week after missing the past three games and it remains to be seen how much of an impact Greenlaw will make in his first game back from a torn achilles.

The 49ers have been the better team statistically this season, with a first down rate differential of +3.07% and a yards per play differential of +1.27, as opposed to 1.15% and -0.34 respectively for the Rams, but in their current injury situations, these two teams are about even in my roster rankings. Despite that, the 49ers are favored by a full field goal at home in this game, so we’re getting some line value with the Rams. It’s not enough for the Rams to be worth betting, but if Nick Bosa ends up missing his fourth straight game and the line doesn’t move, I would strongly consider a bet on the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: Low