Green Bay Packers (9-3) at Detroit Lions (11-1)

The Lions have a big statistical edge in this matchup. Both teams have yards per play differentials, with the Packers at +0.89 and the Lions at +0.87, but the Lions have a huge edge in first down rate differential (+5.92% vs. +1.11%), which is the more predictive of the two metrics. That would suggest the Lions are undervalued as 3.5-point home favorites in this game, as my calculated line based off those statistics would be Detroit -7.5. However, the Packers are in the better injury situation of these two teams. 

While the Packers will still be without top cornerback Jaire Alexander (6th absence of the season) and starting wide receiver Romeo Doubs (3rd absence of the season), the Lions are still without stud left tackle Taylor Decker (3rd absence of the season), who will be joined on the sidelines by stud interior defender DJ Reader, starting linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez, and rotational defensive linemen Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom were active last week. The Lions do get top cornerback Carlton Davis back from a 1-game absence, but overall they are still in worse shape injury wise than their opponents.

My calculated line with the injuries factored in is still Detroit -6.5, so we’re getting some line value with Detroit -3.5, but not as much as you might think. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly 3, more than are decided by 4-6 combined. That means in terms of real probability, 3.5 is closer to 6.5 than 2.5. The Lions should still be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, but there isn’t enough here for the Lions to be worth betting unless this line moves down to 3.

Update: This line has moved to 3 in some places, so I am going to put a small bet on the Lions.

Detroit Lions 30 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: Medium