Pick of the Week
BAL 34 (-6) CIN 21
High Confidence Picks
None
Medium Confidence Picks
NYG 20 (-6.5) CAR 10
ATL 24 (-3.5) NO 17
CHI 20 NE 16 (+6.5)
SF 30 (-6.5) TB 20
DET 24 HOU 23 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
ARZ 24 (+1.5) NYJ 23 Upset Pick +110
BUF 23 IND 20 (+4)
KC 23 (-7.5) DEN 13
MIN 22 JAX 17 (+7)
PHI 26 (-7) DAL 17
MIA 27 (+2.5) LAR 26 Upset Pick +115
No Confidence Picks
WAS 23 PIT 20 (+3)
LAC 24 (-7.5) TEN 16
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
The Ravens don’t have the best record in the league, but statistically they have been the best team in the league by a wide margin. Their yards per play differential of +1.50 leads the league, with no other team better than +1.25 and only one other team better than +0.86, while their first down rate differential of +5.75% is significantly better than the second place team at 3.72%. Those metrics tend to be much more predictive going forward than win/loss records.
The Bengals have been better than their record too, with a positive yards per play differential (+0.44) and a positive first down rate differential (+0.85%), despite a losing record, but statistically I still give the Ravens a nine point edge, given how much better the Ravens have been in both of those metrics. The Ravens have also done that despite facing a much tougher schedule. While both teams have faced each other and have faced the Commanders, Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs, the Bengals’ other games were against the Giants, Patriots, Panthers, and Eagles, who have a combined 12 wins, while the Ravens’ other games were against the Bills, Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Broncos, who have a combined 19 wins.
The Ravens also have a seven and a half point edge in my roster rankings, particularly with the Bengals expected to be without talented wide receiver Tee Higgins and starting left tackle Orlando Brown again this week. Given that and their massive statistical edge, my calculated line has the Ravens favored by 10.5 at home, so we’re getting good value with them. Significantly better teams also tend to cover the spread at home on a short week, even in divisional matchups, as divisional home favorites of 6 points or more are 25-16 ATS on Thursdays historically, as long as both teams are on short rest. I like the Ravens a lot this week.
Update: I don’t normally do this until I’ve had time to fully look at all of the games this week, but it’s unlikely I’ll like any games more than this one, so I am making this a rare Thursday Night Football Pick of the Week.
Injury Update: Orlando Brown may play, but the Bengals’ best interior defender BJ Hill is also highly questionable. For the Ravens, tight end Isaiah Likely is out, but interior defender Travis Jones is set to return. If both Brown and Hill play, that hurts the Ravens chances, but it’s very possible one or both miss this game and, even in a worst case scenario, I still like the Ravens a lot. If both play, my calculated line is Baltimore -9.5 and if both are out my line is Baltimore -11. If only one plays, my calculated line is Baltimore -10. Either way, we’re getting good line value with the Ravens in a good spot.
Baltimore Ravens 34 Cincinnati Bengals 21
Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Pick of the Week
ATL 30 (-3) DAL 20
High Confidence Picks
LAC 24 (-1) CLE 17
SEA 24 (+1.5) LAR 20 Upset Pick +105
Medium Confidence Picks
TEN 20 (-3) NE 13
ARZ 21 (-1) CHI 16
PHI 27 JAX 23 (+7.5)
MIN 23 IND 20 (+6)
Low Confidence Picks
NYJ 26 (-2) HOU 23
CIN 23 LV 17 (+7.5)
DET 27 (-2.5) GB 23
BUF 27 MIA 23 (+6)
No Confidence Picks
WAS 23 NYG 20 (+4)
BAL 27 (-9.5) DEN 17
NO 24 CAR 17 (+7.5)
KC 30 (-9) TB 20
Houston Texans (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
This line favors the Jets by 1.5 at home, suggesting these two teams are about even. That might be surprising, given that the Jets are 2-6 and the Texans are 6-2, but these two teams are much closer than that suggests. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss record, the Texans are at +0.57 and +2.16% respectively, while the Jets are at +0.41 and +0.66%. Five of the Texans’ six wins have come by one-score, while four of the Jets’ six losses have come by one-score, so if a couple things had gone differently these two teams could have very similar records.
The Jets also enter this game as the healthier team, with the Texans most notably missing wide receivers Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, who are not just their two best wide receivers, but two of the better wide receivers in the league. Given the injury situations of these two teams, my calculated line is very similar to the actual line, favoring the Jets by two. The Jets are also in a better spot at home on a short week. That benefit is minimized in divisional matchups or when the road team is the significantly better team, but non-divisional home favorites cover at a 59.8% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, which applies to the Jets in this game. That effect is more pronounced when the home team is big favorites, but home favorites of three or less still cover at a 56.2% rate.
Also, if you’re worried about picking a 2-6 team as favorites against a 6-2 team, teams with winning percentages below 30% are actually 14-5 ATS as favorites against teams with winning percentages above 70% in week 5 or later over the past 35 seasons. There’s not quite enough for the Jets to be bettable this week, but they should be the right side and they’re a good contrarian play in pick ‘em leagues, with about 80% of people on the Texans because of their record.
New York Jets 26 Houston Texans 23
Pick against the spread: NY Jets -1.5
Confidence: Low
Pick of the Week
SF 27 (-3.5) DAL 17
High Confidence Picks
SEA 24 (+3) BUF 23 Upset Pick +140
HOU 24 IND 23 (+5)
JAX 31 (+4) GB 30 Upset Pick +175
Medium Confidence Picks
LAC 23 (-7) NO 13
Low Confidence Picks
CHI 24 WAS 23 (+3)
BAL 27 (-8.5) CLE 17
DEN 19 (-10.5) CAR 7
PIT 20 (-5.5) NYG 13
DET 26 (-11.5) TEN 13
KC 27 (-9.5) LV 16
ATL 27 (-1.5) TB 24
No Confidence Picks
NYJ 24 NE 17 (+7)
MIN 23 (-2.5) LAR 20
CIN 27 (-2.5) PHI 24
MIA 31 (-4) ARZ 26
Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-4)
These two teams have very different records, with the Vikings tied for the best record in the NFC at 5-1 and the Rams out of the playoff picture at 2-4, but they have been more equal than that suggests, as the Vikings have a +1.73% first down rate differential and a +0.64 yards per play differential, while the Rams are at -1.08% and -0.71 respectively. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss record. The Rams also get a big boost this week, with talented wide receiver Cooper Kupp practicing in full and set to return for the first time since getting injured back in week 2. With these two teams closer in important metrics than their records suggest and the Rams getting one of their most important players back from injury, my rankings have these two teams about four points apart.
With the Rams at home, that four point gap would normally mean they should be two point underdogs, with home teams on average outscoring road teams by about two points over the past several seasons. However, the Rams don’t have quite the same homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds heavily supporting the road team. Given that, this line, favoring the Vikings by a field goal, is about right. My calculated line has the Rams slightly more likely than the Vikings to cover this spread, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week and the most likely outcome might be a push, with the Vikings winning by exactly a field goal. If this line slips down to 2.5, I would change my pick to Minnesota.
Update: This line has dropped to 2.5, but that’s because Puka Nacua is surprisingly active, while TJ Hockenson, who was questionable for the Vikings, was ruled out. Nacua is unlikely to play close to his regular snap count though, having gotten just two limited practices in after missing seven weeks, while Hockenson would likely not have played a full snap count had he been active, in his first game in ten months after tearing his ACL, so neither of those injury developments is a huge deal. This is still a no confidence pick, but I am switching to Minnesota at 2.5.
Minnesota Vikings 23 Los Angeles Rams 20
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
IND 24 (-3) MIA 17
High Confidence Picks
CIN 26 (-5.5) CLE 17
LAR 24 LV 20 (+7.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
DET 27 (+1.5) MIN 24 Upset Pick +110
JAX 24 (-5.5) NE 16
Low Confidence Picks
ARZ 24 (+2) LAC 23 Upset Pick +115
GB 26 HOU 24 (+3)
BUF 24 TEN 17 (+9.5)
PIT 17 (+1.5) NYJ 16 Upset Pick +110
WAS 34 (-8.5) CAR 24
DEN 17 NO 16 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
SF 24 KC 23 (+1.5)
BAL 30 TB 27 (+3.5)
PHI 23 NYG 20 (+3)
ATL 27 (-3) SEA 24
Denver Broncos (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)
This game is a tough call. The Saints have been the slightly better team this season, possessing the edge in first down rate differential. The Broncos have the better defense, allowing a 27.50% first down rate and 4.44 yards per play, as opposed to 30.85% and 6.07 for the Saints, but the Saints have a better offense, with a 31.35% first down rate and 5.33 yards per play, as opposed to 25.28% and 4.69 for the Broncos, and offensive production tends to be much more predictive and consistent week-to-week. In my efficiency metric that weighs offensive performance higher than defensive performance, the Saints have a significant edge at -0.53 to -4.25.
However, that’s mostly because the Saints played so well in the first two games of the season, when they won both games by a combined 62 points, and they have declined significantly since then, losing their last four games, in large part due to injuries, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. In total, the Saints are missing starting quarterback Derek Carr, a trio of starting offensive linemen in Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, and Cesar Ruiz, their two best wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the versatile Taysom Hill, starting linebacker Pete Warner, and starting safety Will Harris.
The Broncos are missing top cornerback Patrick Surtain, starting linebacker Alex Singleton, and starting wide receiver Josh Reynolds, while starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey and starting edge defender Baron Browning are questionable, but overall they are the much healthier team and, overall, possess a five point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we are getting a little bit of line value with the Broncos as 2.5-point road favorites, but the Saints are also in a better spot, as home underdogs cover the spread at a 56.7% rate after losing by 14 or more as home underdogs the previous week. I am taking the Saints for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.
Update: This line has shifted to 3, probably because McGlinchey and Browning are playing, but I already assumed they would, so that doesn’t change my projection at all. I like +3 a lot more than +2.5, so I am boosting this to a low confidence pick.
Denver Broncos 17 New Orleans Saints 16
Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3
Confidence: Low
Pick of the Week
ATL 31 (-6) CAR 20
High Confidence Picks
GB 24 ARZ 23 (+5.5)
TB 24 (-3.5) NO 17
Medium Confidence Picks
DET 30 (-3) DAL 24
NYJ 19 (+2.5) BUF 17 Upset Pick +120
IND 22 (+2.5) TEN 20 Upset Pick +120
Low Confidence Picks
BAL 31 (-6.5) WAS 23
HOU 23 NE 17 (+7)
PHI 23 (-9) CLE 13
CIN 30 (-3.5) NYG 24
JAX 24 (+1.5) CHI 23 Upset Pick +105
PIT 17 (-3) LV 13
No Confidence Picks
LAC 20 (-3) DEN 17
SF 27 SEA 24 (+3.5)
San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Both of these teams lost in surprising fashion last week, the 49ers as 7.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals and the Seahawks as 7-point home favorites against the Giants, but both teams were in a bad spot, with this much more important matchup on deck in just four days on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football). The 49ers also could have easily won if they didn’t lose their kicker to an injury mid-game, while the Seahawks easily could have won if not for a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown.
Even including last week’s disappointing results in a bad spot, both teams have impressive numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive long-term than win/loss record. The 49ers are +0.72 in yards per play differential and +5.41% in first down rate differential, while the Seahawks are +0.86 in yards per play differential and +5.71% in first down rate differential. However, these two teams are not as even as that would suggest, for several reasons.
For one, the 49ers have faced a much tougher schedule. While both teams have faced the Patriots, the 49ers have also faced the Jets, Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals, while the Seahawks have faced the Broncos, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants. The 49ers also have a much more talented roster in general, especially with the Seahawks missing talented cornerback Riq Woolen with injury, and, in the long run, the 49ers should be the significantly better team, possessing a seven point edge in my roster rankings. Given all of that, I think this line, favoring the 49ers by 3.5 points on the road, is about right.
I am taking the Seahawks, but only because betting on 3.5-point favorites is not a winning proposition, as they cover the spread only 48.0% of the time. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is. The most likely outcome of this game is a 49ers’ victory by a field goal, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers covered this spread.
San Francisco 49ers 27 Seattle Seahawks 24
Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5
Confidence: None
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