Month: January 2025

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Championship Pick

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Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Championship Pick

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Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)

With the Lions losing in their first playoff game last week, the Chiefs have the best record in the league at 16-2 and one of those two losses was a meaningless week 18 game when they didn’t play their starters with the one seed already locked up. However, the Chiefs won a lot of close games, with just six wins by more than seven points and a 10-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. The Bills have a worse record than the Chiefs, but still have much better numbers in terms of yards per play differential (+0.42 vs. -0.08) and comparable numbers in terms of first down rate differential (1.21% vs. 1.29%), when you exclude both teams’ meaningless week 18 games.

Typically first down rate differential and yards per play differential are significantly more predictive than win/loss record and, along with that, a teams’ record in one-score games is not predictive, but the Chiefs are now 50-19 in one-score games when Patrick Mahomes starts, which is a pretty big sample size. For comparison, the Bills are just 22-20 in one-score games with Josh Allen since his breakout season in 2020, as good as Allen has been over that time period. 

The gap between these two teams in terms of the aforementioned metrics might suggest this is not necessarily going to be a close game, but my roster rankings have these two teams about equal. The Chiefs are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. 

The Chiefs have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position. As a result, they seem to have gotten better as the year has gone on, with four of their six wins by more than seven points this season coming in their last four meaningful games. The Bills, on the other hand, were one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season, but now enter this AFC Championship game missing top safety Taylor Rapp and potentially top cornerback Christian Benford, who has yet to clear the concussion protocol.

With this likely to be a close game, the Chiefs seem like the right side. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given their tendency to win close games, the Chiefs have been great this season against the spread when not big favorites, going 7-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of six points or fewer (excluding week 18), as opposed to 0-7-1 when favored by more than six points. Going back to Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 19-6-1 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than three in games started by Mahomes, including a 18-8 straight up record, making them close to an automatic bet in that situation, especially in the playoffs, when they are 7-0 ATS. My calculated line of Chiefs -2.5 doesn’t give us much value with the Chiefs at -1.5, but as long as this game is expected to be close, I like the Chiefs chances of pulling out the victory. This is only a small bet for now, but I would probably increase it if Benford winds up not playing.

Kansas City Chiefs 28 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)

The Bills finished the regular season one game better than the Ravens, one and a half games if you ignore the Bills’ meaningless week 18 loss to the Patriots, but the Ravens faced a much tougher schedule, with an opponents’ winning percentage of .529, second best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .467 for the Bills, third worst among playoff qualifiers. Both teams blew out inferior opponents in the first round of the post-season, but in the regular season, the Ravens had much more success against playoff qualifiers than the Bills did, as the Bills played just five playoff qualifiers, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and went just 2-3 with a -15 point differential in those games, while the Ravens played ten playoff qualifiers, most among playoff qualifiers, and went 7-3 with +112 point differential, which was best among playoff qualifiers by a wide margin.

Despite the much tougher schedule, the Ravens finished the regular season with significantly better numbers in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing first in both categories by a wide margin at +1.66 and +6.36% respectively (second place in both metrics was +0.99 and +4.70% respectively). The Bills, on the other hand, finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of +0.55 and a first down rate differential of 1.50%, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did have a significantly better turnover margin (+24 vs. +6), but turnover margins are not very predictive. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game in the regular season have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season and have a post-season record of just 23-24.

The Ravens also got significantly better down the stretch once they benched struggling safety Marcus Williams after week 10. From week 11 to week 18, their defense ranked first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense wasn’t quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens had a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% over that stretch, both best in the league.

This spread seems to take some of this into account, favoring the Ravens by 1 point on the road, despite the Bills having a better record, but I think we’re still getting some line value with the visitors. My biggest concern with betting the Ravens is that they will likely be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers for the second straight week due to injury, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league in the regular season, but even with his absence the Ravens still have a 4-point edge over the Bills in my roster rankings, so I think the Ravens are still bettable even without Flowers, albeit for a smaller play than if Flowers was playing.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

The Chiefs finished the regular season tied for the best record in the league at 15-2, but they didn’t blow out many opponents, with just four wins by more than eight points, which is relevant, with this line at 8.5. Only one of those four wins by more than eight points came against a fellow playoff qualifier, a 19-point win over the Steelers, who were eliminated in the first round and who were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. Even excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs only finished the regular season with a first down rate differential of +1.34% and a yards per play differential of -0.04, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records.

However, the Chiefs seemed to turn a corner down the stretch, with their last three victories coming by 14 points, 8 points, and 19 points, including that aforementioned victory over the Steelers, a game in which the Chiefs didn’t even have their top defensive player Chris Jones due to injury. It’s very possible the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs were not giving their best effort for most of the season and are now turning it on late in the season. 

The Chiefs are also more talented and healthier now than they have been for most of the season. They are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. They have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position.

The Texans, meanwhile, are probably the worst team left in the post-season. They finished the regular season negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also one of the more injury plagued teams left in the playoffs, missing four above average week one starters, defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. 

The Texans only lost by 8 when these two teams met a few weeks ago, in the middle of the Chiefs’ impressive late season stretch, but the Texans lost Dell and Ward in that game, after which the Chiefs went on a 10-3 run, even though the Chiefs also lost Chris Jones in that game, who has since returned. If the Chiefs can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh by 19 even without Jones, they can beat a comparable team in the Texans in Kansas City with Jones by at least 9. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Chiefs to be bettable, given their track record of playing close games this year, but for pick ‘em purposes I would be willing to guess that the Chiefs are permanently playing at a different level now than they were earlier in the season.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -8.5

Confidence: Low

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)

The Detroit Lions finished the regular season 15-2, while ranking 2nd in first down rate differential at 4.70% and 6th in yards per play differential at +0.48, while the Commanders finished 12-5 with a first down rate differential of +2.08% (7th in the NFL) and a yards per play differential of +0.31 (11th in the NFL). That is despite the fact that the Lions faced a much tougher schedule, entering the postseason with an opponents’ winning percentage of .516, 3rd best among playoff qualifiers, while the Commanders entered the postseason with an opponents’ winning percentage of .436, worst among playoff qualifiers. The Lions played 8 regular season games against playoff qualifiers, going 6-2 in those games, while the Commanders played just 5 games against playoff qualifiers and went 1-4 in those games.

However, this line favors the Lions by 9.5, which is pretty substantial and it means the Commanders don’t have to win, or even really come that close to winning, to cover this spread. With that in mind, there are some reasons to like the Commanders. While the Lions did beat six other playoff qualifiers, only two of those wins came by double digits, with none of those games coming against teams remaining in the playoffs. In fact, they’ve only played three games against teams remaining in the playoffs and the result of those three games was an overtime victory over the Rams, a 3-point win against the Texans on a long, last second field goal, and a loss to the Bills by 6. The Lions did beat the Packers by 10 and Vikings by 22 and, even if those teams have been eliminated, you can still argue they are on a comparable level to the Commanders, but the Lions also had games against those two teams in which they won by just 3 points and 2 points respectively.

The Commanders, meanwhile, only had one loss all season by double digits and that came all the way back in week 1, against a Buccaneers team that they beat last week. They did need garbage time touchdowns against the Ravens and Eagles to make those games closer than they otherwise would have been, but garbage time touchdowns still count and, even if the Lions lead by multiple touchdowns in the fourth quarter, there is still a possibility that the Commanders could mount a rally in garbage time to cut the lead to one score and cover this high spread.

The Commanders also have the injury edge. While the Lions are probably the most injury plagued team in the post-season, missing six week 1 starters, the Commanders are probably the healthiest playoff team, not missing a single week 1 starter. The Lions have been injury plagued for most of the season, while the Commanders have been relatively healthy for most of the season, but the Lions are still in a worse injury position than they have been for most of the season and the Commanders are in a better injury position than they have been for most of the season. With injuries taken into account, my roster rankings have the Lions five points better than the Commanders, which is not enough to justify this line being 9.5. I wouldn’t make a big bet on the Commanders, but they’re bettable for a small play.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Commanders 24

Pick against the spread: Washington +9.5

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

The Eagles won three more games than the Packers this season, but they were pretty similar in terms of yards per play differential (+0.97 for the Packers, +0.87 for the Eagles) and first down rate differential (+2.91% for the Eagles, +1.57% for the Packers), which are much more predictive than win/loss records. The Packers also faced a much tougher schedule than the Eagles, with an opponents winning percentage of .533, best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .453 for the Eagles, second worst among playoff qualifiers.

The Eagles did fare much better against other playoff qualifiers though, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread with a +29 point differential, as opposed to 2-5 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS for the Packers, who had a -15 point differential in those games. The Eagles are also in a much better injury situation. Not only are the Eagles only missing one week 1 starter, edge defender Brandon Graham, while the Packers are missing three, cornerback Jaire Alexander, wide receiver Christian Watson, and edge defender Preston Smith (trade), but the Eagles have also had more key players miss time this season who have since returned.

Both teams have been without their starting quarterback for about two and a half games, but the Eagles have also been without All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

Meanwhile the Packers’ most notable injuries this season aside from the players who remain out are starting wide receiver Romeo Doubs (4 games), every down linebacker Quay Walker (4 games), and talented safety Evan Williams (5 games), which is a much less significant list. In their current injury situations, I have the Eagles favored at home by seven points on my calculated line, despite these two teams being pretty equal statistically, so we’re getting decent line value with the Eagles as only 4.5-point favorites. I don’t think there is quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes,

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: Low

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Washington Commanders (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

The Commanders finished the regular season two games better than the Buccaneers and are underdogs of three points in this game. The public is all over the underdog as a result of that, with about 80% of the action on the Commanders, but this line remains unchanged, as the oddsmakers want as much money on the underdog as possible, for good reason. While the records show the Commanders as the better team, the Buccaneers have the substantial edge in both first down rate differential (+4.33% vs. +2.08%) and yards per play differential (+0.75 vs. +0.31), which are far more predictive than win/loss records.

The Buccaneers have also faced a much tougher schedule. While the Commanders had an opponents’ winning percentage of .436, worst among playoff qualifiers and second worst in the NFL overall, the Buccaneers faced an average schedule at .502. The Buccaneers faced seven playoff qualifiers this season, as opposed to just five for the Commanders, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and the Buccaneers had much more success in those games, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS with a +26 point differential that was 5th best among playoff qualifiers, while the Commanders went just 1-4 straight up and against the spread, with a -30 point differential that was 4th worst among playoff qualifiers.

The Commanders are fully healthy in this game, not missing a single week one starter, but the Buccaneers have had more key injuries than the Commanders have had this season and are also in significantly better injury shape than they have been for most of the season. The Buccaneers are only without two week one starters, wide receiver Chris Godwin and safety Jordan Whitehead, who have missed 10 games and 5 games respectively this season. Key players who missed significant time and have since returned for the Buccaneers include talented slot cornerback Tykee Smith (4 games missed), top cornerback Jamel Dean (5 games missed), stud safety Antoine Winfield (8 games missed), team sack leader Calijah Kancey (5 games missed), top wide receiver Mike Evans (3 games missed), starting tight end Cade Otton (3 games missed), starting wide receiver Jalen McMillan (4 games missed), and starting right tackle Luke Goedeke (4 games missed). 

For the Commanders, the most important players who have missed significant time are starting center Tyler Biadasz (2 games missed), starting right tackle Andrew Wylie (3 games missed), starting running back Brian Robinson (3 games missed), top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (6 games missed after being acquired via trade mid-season), and starting interior defender Jonathan Allen (9 games missed), which is significantly less than the Buccaneers, so I would say the Commanders are no more healthy relative to how they have been this season than the Buccaneers are. 

Between that and the Buccaneers’ significant statistical edge and their significantly better play against fellow playoff qualifiers, I like the Buccaneers quite a bit at home as only 3-point favorites. If you are still concerned with betting on a team with a worse record as favorites against a team with a better record, teams are just 8-25 straight up and 13-20 ATS in that spot in the post-season all time. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Buccaneers, but it’s a reason not to be concerned betting on them, despite the Commanders having the better record and being underdogs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Washington Commanders 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -3

Confidence: High