Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

The Colts lost last week in embarrassing fashion, losing as 7-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the league in the New York Giants. Not only that, but that loss essentially ended the Colts season, as it caused them to be eliminated from post-season contention. You might think the Colts will be flat this week after such an embarrassing loss made this game meaningless for post-season qualification purposes, but we’ve seen plenty of teams give high levels of effort the week after being eliminated, most recently the 49ers and Cardinals last week, the Cardinals doing so after an embarrassing upset loss to the Panthers. 

On top of that, the Colts will be motivated to put that embarrassing loss behind them and avoid another potentially embarrassing loss to another one of the worst teams in the league this week, at home for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams tend to bounce back after big upset losses like the Colts’ loss, covering the spread at a 60.7% rate the week after losing as road favorites of seven or more, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a loss like that, which usually makes them a good bet.

I can’t say for sure that the Colts will be overlooked and embarrassed this week, but they definitely seem undervalued as 4.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars this week. Even with last week’s loss included, the Colts still have a significant edge over the Jaguars in first down rate differential (-0.83% vs. -4.18%) and yards per play differential (-0.12 vs. -0.63), against a pretty similar schedule (.460 opponents winning percentage for the Colts, .474 for the Jaguars). 

The Colts also are a much healthier team, likely missing just three week one starters, one of which is quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has struggled this season, as opposed to at least six missing starters for the Jaguars, most notably quarterback Trevor Lawrence and three starting pass catchers in Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. With injuries factored in, the Colts have a 4.5-point edge over the Jaguars in my roster rankings, giving us a calculated line of Indianapolis -6.5. That gives us decent line value with the Colts, in addition to a strong situational trend on their side, so they are worth betting this week. With no significant players looking truly questionable for either side, I am locking in this bet in early this week before the line potentially increases.

Update: This line weirdly has dropped to 3 in some places, which warrants an additional bet.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High