New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

The Eagles are resting some key starters in this game, locked into the #2 seed in the NFC regardless of the outcome of this game. Normally I don’t like to bet on games where one team is resting their starter because they tend to be unpredictable, but I think we’re getting some line value with the Eagles in this game. If this was a regular game, my calculated line would have the Eagles favored by 18.5 points. Instead, this line is Philadelphia -2.5, meaning the Eagles’ absent starters would have to be worth 16 points for this line to make sense and I think that’s too much, especially since the Eagles will either be starting Kenny Pickett, a solid backup, or Tanner McKee, who showed promise in limited action last week, at quarterback.

You might be hesitant about betting on a team resting starters, but teams are actually 20-14 ATS in that spot over the past 13 seasons, which isn’t a reason to bet on teams resting starters, but it’s a reason not to shy away from it. The Giants are also in a bad spot after a big upset win last week, winning straight up as underdogs of 7 points against the Colts. Teams cover the spread just at a 41.3% rate the week after winning as home underdogs or five points or more, as it tends to be tough for a bad team to bring that kind of effort two weeks in a row. There still is a lot of uncertainty in a game where the Eagles are resting starters, so this is a small bet, but I think there is money to be made here.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2.5

Confidence: Medium