Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)

The Bills finished the regular season at 13-4, 13-3 if we don’t include a meaningless week 18 game in which they rested their starters, but, even if we ignore week 18, the Bills had just a first down rate differential of just +1.50% and a yards per play differential of +0.55 this season, which are more significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did lead the league with a +24 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent week-to-week, which is why first down rate and yards per play tend to be much more predictive than anything. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season, leading to them going 20-26 ATS, 22-24 straight up, 11-16 ATS as favorites, and 5-11 ATS with 7 straight up losses as favorites of 4 or more.

The Bills also faced a relatively easy schedule this season, facing just five playoff opponents, tied for the fewest among playoff qualifiers. Making matters worse, the Bills won just two of those games, with no wins by more than nine points, relevant considering this line is nine. The Broncos haven’t had much success against playoff qualifiers either, going 1-5 (excluding their week 18 win over a Chiefs team that was resting their starters), but they don’t need to win to cover this high spread and only one of their matchups against a playoff qualifier resulted in a loss by more than nine points. I wouldn’t make a big bet on the Broncos, but I expect this game to be relatively close.

Buffalo Bills 25 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against the spread: Denver +9

Confidence: Medium