Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)

The Texans are arguably the worst team in the playoffs. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also arguably the most injury plagued playoff qualifier, missing five above average week one starters, defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, and guard Shaq Mason. 

Making matters worse, all of those except Diggs are relatively recent injuries, going down since week 12, and the Texans have a first down rate differential of -3.17% and a yards per play differential of -0.44 over that stretch. On top of that, the Texans are just 1-5 this season against playoff qualifiers with a -66 point differential in those games, both of which are worst or tied for worst among playoff qualifiers. That one win came all the way back in week 5, when they were a much healthier team.

The Chargers aren’t an overly impressive team, but they have an advantage over the Texans in every aspect. They went just 2-5 against playoff qualifiers with a point differential of -35, which is very underwhelming, but better than the Texans. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, the Chargers finished the season at +1.12% and +0.10, both better than the Texans’ season-long marks. The Chargers do have some injuries, but none are as significant as any of the five key players the Texans are missing. 

The Chargers also have mostly gotten better as the season has gone on, dating back to Justin Herbert returning to full health from an early season leg injury. Herbert had a PFF grade of 55.4 through the first five games of the season, but that has jumped to 94.3 in the twelve games since, best in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks over that stretch. As a team, the Chargers have a first down rate differential of +1.69% and a yards per play differential of +0.28 over that stretch. With the current injury state these two teams are in, the Chargers have a 5-point edge over the Texans in my roster rankings.

The Texans are at home in this game, but the Chargers don’t have much homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway. Since moving there in 2017, the Chargers are 27-34-3 ATS at home with an average point differential of +1.2, as opposed to 39-26-4 ATS on the road with an average point differential of +1.8. Between that and the Chargers’ significant edge in my roster rankings, we are getting some line value with the Chargers as 2.5-point favorites. There isn’t quite enough here for the Chargers to be bettable, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Houston Texans 19

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: Low