Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

The Ravens finished the regular season first in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential by a wide margin, with their yards per play differential of +1.66 being significantly better than the second best team at +0.99 and their first down rate differential of +6.36% being significantly better than the second best team at +4.70%. Their offense led the way with a 6.85 yards per play average (2nd best in the league was 6.24) and a 36.22% first down rate (2nd best in the league was 35.90%), but their defense has also been especially good in recent weeks, since making a switch at safety from Marcus Williams to Ar’Darius Washington in week 11.

Since week 11, their defense ranks first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense hasn’t been quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens have a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% since week 11, both best in the league.

That is despite the fact that the Ravens played playoff qualifiers in five of seven games over that stretch. In fact, no playoff qualifier played more other playoff qualifiers this season than the Ravens who played ten. In those ten games, they went 7-3 both straight up and against the spread, with a point differential of +112, best among playoff qualifiers against other playoff qualifiers by a wide margin, with the Chiefs being second at +42 (excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos). The Ravens’ point differential against playoff qualifiers was powered by five wins over other playoff qualifiers by at least 10 points, very relevant considering this line is 9.5.

The Steelers, on the other hand, were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. They did go 4-3 against other playoff qualifiers, but with a point differential of -30, including double digit losses in each of their last three games against playoff qualifiers. The Steelers also finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of -0.35 and a first down rate differential of -2.23%, both worst among playoff qualifiers. This line might seem high at 9.5, but with that big of a gap between these two teams, this line seems more than warranted. Additionally, big favorites like this tend to cover at a high rate in the first round of the playoffs, with favorites of 9.5 or more going 11-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as favorites of exactly 9.5. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but if this big line scares you, that is definitely worth noting. 

The Ravens do have one thing working against them that prevents this from being a bigger bet and that is the injury to #1 receiver Zay Flowers. The Ravens have been one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season and, while Flowers is the only key player they are missing for this game, it is still a big absence, particularly when you consider they haven’t dealt with many significant injuries this season. 

The Steelers also have one key player absent, guard James Daniels, but he has been out since week 4 and, unlike the Ravens, the Steelers have had many significant injuries this season, as key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) all missed time with injury this season and have since returned. I’m still betting on the Ravens at -9.5, but Flowers’ absence is enough to keep this at a smaller bet and I don’t think I would bet the Ravens at -10.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9.5

Confidence: Medium