Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

The Eagles won three more games than the Packers this season, but they were pretty similar in terms of yards per play differential (+0.97 for the Packers, +0.87 for the Eagles) and first down rate differential (+2.91% for the Eagles, +1.57% for the Packers), which are much more predictive than win/loss records. The Packers also faced a much tougher schedule than the Eagles, with an opponents winning percentage of .533, best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .453 for the Eagles, second worst among playoff qualifiers.

The Eagles did fare much better against other playoff qualifiers though, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread with a +29 point differential, as opposed to 2-5 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS for the Packers, who had a -15 point differential in those games. The Eagles are also in a much better injury situation. Not only are the Eagles only missing one week 1 starter, edge defender Brandon Graham, while the Packers are missing three, cornerback Jaire Alexander, wide receiver Christian Watson, and edge defender Preston Smith (trade), but the Eagles have also had more key players miss time this season who have since returned.

Both teams have been without their starting quarterback for about two and a half games, but the Eagles have also been without All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

Meanwhile the Packers’ most notable injuries this season aside from the players who remain out are starting wide receiver Romeo Doubs (4 games), every down linebacker Quay Walker (4 games), and talented safety Evan Williams (5 games), which is a much less significant list. In their current injury situations, I have the Eagles favored at home by seven points on my calculated line, despite these two teams being pretty equal statistically, so we’re getting decent line value with the Eagles as only 4.5-point favorites. I don’t think there is quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes,

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: Low