Washington Commanders (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

The Commanders finished the regular season two games better than the Buccaneers and are underdogs of three points in this game. The public is all over the underdog as a result of that, with about 80% of the action on the Commanders, but this line remains unchanged, as the oddsmakers want as much money on the underdog as possible, for good reason. While the records show the Commanders as the better team, the Buccaneers have the substantial edge in both first down rate differential (+4.33% vs. +2.08%) and yards per play differential (+0.75 vs. +0.31), which are far more predictive than win/loss records.

The Buccaneers have also faced a much tougher schedule. While the Commanders had an opponents’ winning percentage of .436, worst among playoff qualifiers and second worst in the NFL overall, the Buccaneers faced an average schedule at .502. The Buccaneers faced seven playoff qualifiers this season, as opposed to just five for the Commanders, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and the Buccaneers had much more success in those games, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS with a +26 point differential that was 5th best among playoff qualifiers, while the Commanders went just 1-4 straight up and against the spread, with a -30 point differential that was 4th worst among playoff qualifiers.

The Commanders are fully healthy in this game, not missing a single week one starter, but the Buccaneers have had more key injuries than the Commanders have had this season and are also in significantly better injury shape than they have been for most of the season. The Buccaneers are only without two week one starters, wide receiver Chris Godwin and safety Jordan Whitehead, who have missed 10 games and 5 games respectively this season. Key players who missed significant time and have since returned for the Buccaneers include talented slot cornerback Tykee Smith (4 games missed), top cornerback Jamel Dean (5 games missed), stud safety Antoine Winfield (8 games missed), team sack leader Calijah Kancey (5 games missed), top wide receiver Mike Evans (3 games missed), starting tight end Cade Otton (3 games missed), starting wide receiver Jalen McMillan (4 games missed), and starting right tackle Luke Goedeke (4 games missed). 

For the Commanders, the most important players who have missed significant time are starting center Tyler Biadasz (2 games missed), starting right tackle Andrew Wylie (3 games missed), starting running back Brian Robinson (3 games missed), top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (6 games missed after being acquired via trade mid-season), and starting interior defender Jonathan Allen (9 games missed), which is significantly less than the Buccaneers, so I would say the Commanders are no more healthy relative to how they have been this season than the Buccaneers are. 

Between that and the Buccaneers’ significant statistical edge and their significantly better play against fellow playoff qualifiers, I like the Buccaneers quite a bit at home as only 3-point favorites. If you are still concerned with betting on a team with a worse record as favorites against a team with a better record, teams are just 8-25 straight up and 13-20 ATS in that spot in the post-season all time. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Buccaneers, but it’s a reason not to be concerned betting on them, despite the Commanders having the better record and being underdogs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Washington Commanders 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -3

Confidence: High