Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

The Chiefs finished the regular season tied for the best record in the league at 15-2, but they didn’t blow out many opponents, with just four wins by more than eight points, which is relevant, with this line at 8.5. Only one of those four wins by more than eight points came against a fellow playoff qualifier, a 19-point win over the Steelers, who were eliminated in the first round and who were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. Even excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs only finished the regular season with a first down rate differential of +1.34% and a yards per play differential of -0.04, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records.

However, the Chiefs seemed to turn a corner down the stretch, with their last three victories coming by 14 points, 8 points, and 19 points, including that aforementioned victory over the Steelers, a game in which the Chiefs didn’t even have their top defensive player Chris Jones due to injury. It’s very possible the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs were not giving their best effort for most of the season and are now turning it on late in the season. 

The Chiefs are also more talented and healthier now than they have been for most of the season. They are only missing one week 1 starter, wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has been out since week 4, and they have replaced him well by trading for DeAndre Hopkins after week 7 and getting back Marquise Brown after he missed the first 14 games of the season with injury. They have also recently gotten back other key players in running back Isaiah Pacheco (10 games missed), edge defender Charles Omenihu (11 games missed), and cornerback Jaylen Watson (11 games missed) and they have significantly improved their offensive line by moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle, which is a more important position.

The Texans, meanwhile, are probably the worst team left in the post-season. They finished the regular season negative in both first down rate differential (-0.80%) and yards per play differential (-0.04), ranking 4th worst and 2nd worst among playoff qualifiers in those metrics. They’re also one of the more injury plagued teams left in the playoffs, missing four above average week one starters, defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. 

The Texans only lost by 8 when these two teams met a few weeks ago, in the middle of the Chiefs’ impressive late season stretch, but the Texans lost Dell and Ward in that game, after which the Chiefs went on a 10-3 run, even though the Chiefs also lost Chris Jones in that game, who has since returned. If the Chiefs can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh by 19 even without Jones, they can beat a comparable team in the Texans in Kansas City with Jones by at least 9. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Chiefs to be bettable, given their track record of playing close games this year, but for pick ‘em purposes I would be willing to guess that the Chiefs are permanently playing at a different level now than they were earlier in the season.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -8.5

Confidence: Low