Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)

The Detroit Lions finished the regular season 15-2, while ranking 2nd in first down rate differential at 4.70% and 6th in yards per play differential at +0.48, while the Commanders finished 12-5 with a first down rate differential of +2.08% (7th in the NFL) and a yards per play differential of +0.31 (11th in the NFL). That is despite the fact that the Lions faced a much tougher schedule, entering the postseason with an opponents’ winning percentage of .516, 3rd best among playoff qualifiers, while the Commanders entered the postseason with an opponents’ winning percentage of .436, worst among playoff qualifiers. The Lions played 8 regular season games against playoff qualifiers, going 6-2 in those games, while the Commanders played just 5 games against playoff qualifiers and went 1-4 in those games.

However, this line favors the Lions by 9.5, which is pretty substantial and it means the Commanders don’t have to win, or even really come that close to winning, to cover this spread. With that in mind, there are some reasons to like the Commanders. While the Lions did beat six other playoff qualifiers, only two of those wins came by double digits, with none of those games coming against teams remaining in the playoffs. In fact, they’ve only played three games against teams remaining in the playoffs and the result of those three games was an overtime victory over the Rams, a 3-point win against the Texans on a long, last second field goal, and a loss to the Bills by 6. The Lions did beat the Packers by 10 and Vikings by 22 and, even if those teams have been eliminated, you can still argue they are on a comparable level to the Commanders, but the Lions also had games against those two teams in which they won by just 3 points and 2 points respectively.

The Commanders, meanwhile, only had one loss all season by double digits and that came all the way back in week 1, against a Buccaneers team that they beat last week. They did need garbage time touchdowns against the Ravens and Eagles to make those games closer than they otherwise would have been, but garbage time touchdowns still count and, even if the Lions lead by multiple touchdowns in the fourth quarter, there is still a possibility that the Commanders could mount a rally in garbage time to cut the lead to one score and cover this high spread.

The Commanders also have the injury edge. While the Lions are probably the most injury plagued team in the post-season, missing six week 1 starters, the Commanders are probably the healthiest playoff team, not missing a single week 1 starter. The Lions have been injury plagued for most of the season, while the Commanders have been relatively healthy for most of the season, but the Lions are still in a worse injury position than they have been for most of the season and the Commanders are in a better injury position than they have been for most of the season. With injuries taken into account, my roster rankings have the Lions five points better than the Commanders, which is not enough to justify this line being 9.5. I wouldn’t make a big bet on the Commanders, but they’re bettable for a small play.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Commanders 24

Pick against the spread: Washington +9.5

Confidence: Medium