Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)

The Bills finished the regular season one game better than the Ravens, one and a half games if you ignore the Bills’ meaningless week 18 loss to the Patriots, but the Ravens faced a much tougher schedule, with an opponents’ winning percentage of .529, second best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .467 for the Bills, third worst among playoff qualifiers. Both teams blew out inferior opponents in the first round of the post-season, but in the regular season, the Ravens had much more success against playoff qualifiers than the Bills did, as the Bills played just five playoff qualifiers, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and went just 2-3 with a -15 point differential in those games, while the Ravens played ten playoff qualifiers, most among playoff qualifiers, and went 7-3 with +112 point differential, which was best among playoff qualifiers by a wide margin.

Despite the much tougher schedule, the Ravens finished the regular season with significantly better numbers in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing first in both categories by a wide margin at +1.66 and +6.36% respectively (second place in both metrics was +0.99 and +4.70% respectively). The Bills, on the other hand, finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of +0.55 and a first down rate differential of 1.50%, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did have a significantly better turnover margin (+24 vs. +6), but turnover margins are not very predictive. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game in the regular season have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season and have a post-season record of just 23-24.

The Ravens also got significantly better down the stretch once they benched struggling safety Marcus Williams after week 10. From week 11 to week 18, their defense ranked first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense wasn’t quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens had a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% over that stretch, both best in the league.

This spread seems to take some of this into account, favoring the Ravens by 1 point on the road, despite the Bills having a better record, but I think we’re still getting some line value with the visitors. My biggest concern with betting the Ravens is that they will likely be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers for the second straight week due to injury, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league in the regular season, but even with his absence the Ravens still have a 4-point edge over the Bills in my roster rankings, so I think the Ravens are still bettable even without Flowers, albeit for a smaller play than if Flowers was playing.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium