Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)

The Eagles have been the slightly better of these two teams statistically, winning two more games and finishing the season with a first down rate differential of +2.64% and a yards per play differential of +0.77, as opposed to +0.98% and +0.15 respectively for the Commanders. However, the Eagles’ big edge is their injury situation. While the Commanders will be without their top offensive lineman Sam Cosmi in this game, after being relatively healthy throughout the regular season, the Eagles are much healthier than they have been for much of the season. Most notably, key players like All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), and top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) all have returned after missing significant time with injury this season. 

In the injury situations these two teams are currently in, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Commanders in my roster rankings, with an edge in every position group, except quarterback. The Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts edge is significant, but not nearly enough to make up for the fact that the Eagles are a much better team overall. There isn’t quite enough here for the Eagles to be worth betting as 6-point home favorites, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Commanders 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low