Month: May 2025

Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars got the #1 pick following a 1-15 season and it seemed like a good year to get that pick, as it gave them the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence, who was viewed as one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory. So far, however, the results have not been what the Jaguars expected. Lawrence struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, as the Jaguars finished with the worst record in the NFL for the second straight year, this time at 3-14. 

Lawrence didn’t have a lot of help from the rest of this roster and the Jaguars had a completely overmatched coaching staff, led by Urban Meyer, who didn’t even make it through his first season in the NFL, so it was easy to give Lawrence a mulligan for that terrible performance. In his second season in the league, Lawrence took a big step forward and showed why he was such a highly regarded prospect, completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while leading the Jaguars to 9 wins, a division title, and a playoff victory. He was especially good down the stretch, completing 69.7% of his passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his final 9 games.

In his third season in the league, Lawrence continued his strong play from the second half of 2022, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in the first 12 games of the season. In total, Lawrence had a 21-game stretch across 2022 and 2023 where he completed 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while leading the Jaguars to a 15-6 record in the regular season. However, Lawrence suffered an injury down the stretch in 2023 and was not nearly the same while trying to play through it, leading to him losing his final 4 starts as the Jaguars fell completely out of the playoff race.

Still, there was reason for optimism going into 2024, given how well Lawrence had played over the course of more than a full season prior to his injury late in 2023. The Jaguars especially seemed optimistic about his 2024 campaign, wanting to get ahead of a potential career best year by giving him an extension prior to the season, rather than waiting for his value to go up. Lawrence still cost the Jaguars a 5-year, 275 million dollar deal, which makes him tied for the second highest paid quarterback in the league as of this writing, but it was reasonable to assume that if Lawrence bounced back from his injury that the cost of that extension after the season would be even higher.

However, Lawrence did not bounce back in 2024, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. The Jaguars’ defense also struggled mightily, leading to the Jaguars going just 2-8 in games started by Lawrence and just 4-13 overall. Injuries again affected his season, costing him seven games, but he was underwhelming even when on the field. Now going into his fifth season in the league, it’s still tough to know what to make of Lawrence. He is still only going into his age 26 season and has shown a pretty high ceiling, but he has also been inconsistent, injury prone, and, overall, his body of work through four seasons in the league has not been in line with a #1 overall pick who was given a huge extension after just three seasons in the league.

The Jaguars don’t have a reasonable opportunity to get out of Lawrence’s extension until after the 2028 season and, in fact, his extension is still a full year away from even starting, so they are tied to him for the foreseeable future. His cap hit as a percentage of the overall cap will stay below 10% for the next two seasons, but it is projected to be at 10.36% in 2027 and 12.65% in 2028, which means it will become increasingly difficult for the Jaguars to surround Lawrence with talent over the next few seasons. In fact, the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, so the Jaguars will need Lawrence to elevate his game to a consistently high level for his contract to be worth it long-term.

To try to get the most out of Lawrence, the Jaguars fired head coach Doug Pederson this off-season after three seasons with the team and replaced him with former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen is credited with getting a career best year out of another inconsistent former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield last season, but Coen is still inexperienced overall, with one year of offensive play calling at the NFL level, and there have been plenty of offensive coordinators who have struggled to translate that success into a head coaching role. Coen hired Grant Udinski as his offensive coordinator and he comes from a successful coaching staff in Minnesota, but he too is inexperienced, with this being his first offensive coordinator job in the NFL. There is plenty of potential here with Lawrence under this new coaching staff, but it remains to be seen if they can make good on that potential.

Lawrence will be backed up by Nick Mullens, who comes with Udinski from Minnesota. In 20 career starts in eight seasons in the league, Mullens has completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.99 YPA, which are both impressive numbers for backup quarterback, but he is also erratic with the ball, throwing 31 interceptions to 34 touchdowns, which is why he has never been looked at as a starting option, despite his ability to consistently pick up big gains through the air. Still, he’s overall a solid backup option. The Jaguars will just be hoping that Lawrence doesn’t suffer a significant injury for the third year in a row, causing them to have to turn to their backup again. 

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Jaguars ended up with the 5th pick last season as a result of their terrible season, but that wasn’t high enough for the Jaguars to get the player they coveted at the top of the draft, as they traded away a package of picks, including the 5th pick, their second rounder this year, and their first rounder next year, to the Browns for the #2 pick, where they selected Colorado’s Travis Hunter. It’s a risky move, in large part because the Jaguars are not guaranteed to be good this year and could be giving the Browns a relatively high pick again next year, but the Jaguars view Hunter as a generational talent worth giving away multiple high picks for.

Hunter is certainly a unique prospect, showing the ability to play every down at a high level on both sides of the ball in college, at wide receiver and cornerback, and his ability to play on both sides of the ball is likely a large part of the reason why the Jaguars felt comfortable giving up so much for him, as they could view him as essentially multiple players. However, whether he is capable of doing what he did at the collegiate level at the NFL level remains to be seen. 

It will be a lot of work mentally to learn two positions at a high level in the NFL and physically it significantly increases his chances of injury long-term to have roles on both sides of the ball. Ultimately, it seems likely he will focus primarily on one side of the ball long-term, with a much smaller role on the other side of the ball, but he might not be good enough at either position to justify the Jaguars giving up that much draft capital to select him if he isn’t playing both sides of the ball at an effective level.

Given where the Jaguars need him the most, it seems likely Hunter will primarily be a wide receiver this season, with a smaller role as a cornerback on defense. The Jaguars overhauled their receiving corps this off-season, letting go of veterans Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, who were effective last season with yards per route run averages of 1.72 and 1.51 respectively, but who were limited to 8 games and 9 games respectively due to injury, as well as letting go of Gabe Davis, who struggled mightily with 0.95 yards per route run across 10 games.

Hunter will be part of replacing Kirk and Davis at wide receiver and the Jaguars also added Dyami Brown on a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal in free agency. Brown was a third round pick in 2021, but he has totaled just 59 catches for 784 yards and 4 touchdowns in his career, with just a 1.10 yards per route run average. He had an impressive run in the post-season for the Commanders last year, averaging 2.44 yards per route run over a 3-game span, and the Jaguars are hoping he has permanently turned a corner, still only going into his age 26 season, but that’s a very small sample size and Brown benefited significantly from having Jayden Daniels at quarterback. 

It seems unlikely Brown will develop into anything more than a decent #3 receiver in on his one-year deal with the Jaguars. The Jaguars also still have Parker Washington, who took on a big role down the stretch last season when Kirk and Davis were out, but he only averaged a 1.02 yards per route run average, which is actually up from the 0.75 yards per route run that the 2023 6th round pick averaged as a rookie, so he’s a very underwhelming option as well.

The constant in this wide receiver group is Brian Thomas, a 2024 first round pick who had a huge rookie season, with a 87/1282/10 slash line and 2.45 yards per route run. Thomas benefited from a high target total (133) and target share (25.5%) on a team with little in the way of other options, but he also faced frequent double teams as a result. This season could be a similar situation, given the state of the rest of this wide receiver group, with the difference being that Thomas is now another year more experienced and could get better quarterback play on a better offense if Trevor Lawrence stays healthy and plays up to his potential in this new offense.

To replace Evan Engram at tight end, they are giving a bigger role to Brenton Strange, who fared well as the primary tight end last season when Engram was out, finishing the season with a 40/411/2 slash line and 1.49 yards per route run, including a 29/275/2 slash line in eight games without Engram. Strange was a 2nd round pick in 2023, so he’s always had the upside to develop into an above average starting tight end, but he struggled mightily as a rookie with a 0.41 yards per route run average, and is still relatively inexperienced and unproven as a starting tight end, so, while he comes with a lot of upside, he also comes with a lot of downside.

The Jaguars signed Johnny Mundt and Hunter Long in free agency, but they only signed deals worth 5.5 million over 2 years and 5 million over 2 years respectively and are only backup options behind Strange. Mundt is an 8-year veteran, but barely played in his first five seasons in the league (10 total catches) and has finished below 60 on PFF in two of the past three seasons, while averaging 1.00 yards per route run over that stretch. Mundt is also now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him, to the extent he ever had best days.

Long, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick who hasn’t really developed. He played more snaps last season than he had in his first three seasons in the league combined, but that was still a snap count of just 279, after 239 combined in his first three seasons, and he has just a 0.52 yards per route run average in his career. Both are underwhelming backup options. This receiving corps has talent, led by #1 receiver Brian Thomas and the upside of rookie Travis Hunter, but this is a top heavy group that could be underwhelming overall again. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Jaguars also overhauled their offensive line this off-season. Center Mitch Morse retired ahead of what would have been his age 33 season, while right guard Brandon Scherff wasn’t retained ahead of his age 34 season. In their place, the Jaguars signed Robert Hainsey to replace Morse at center and Patrick Mekari to replace Scherff at right guard. Hainsey was signed to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and Mekari was signed to a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal, but it’s not a guarantee they will be a significant upgrade, even though Morse and Scherff had PFF grades of just 57.9 and 64.7 respectively. 

Hainsey, a 2021 3rd round pick, made 34 starts with the Buccaneers from 2022-2023, but he was underwhelming, with PFF grades of 66.7 and 52.8, and subsequently was replaced by a first round pick in Graham Barton last off-season. Hainsey showed some potential as a reserve last season, with a 73.3 PFF grade across 94 snaps, but that is no guarantee that his second stint as a starter goes better than his first stint. Mekari, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, while making 53 starts, but he had his worst season last season with a 60.4 PFF grade, which coincided with a career high in starts at 17, after previously never making more than 12 starts in a season. Mekari has been at his best as a versatile super sub in the past and it’s unclear if he can be more than marginal as a full-time starter.

The rest of this offensive line is the same as it ended last season, but the Jaguars did make a big change at left tackle mid-season last year, trading away Cam Robinson so that Walker Little could take over for him. Little was a second round pick in 2021, but he had only made 17 career starts prior to week 7 of last season. Little had shown potential in limited action though, with PFF grades of 68.5, 61.1, and 58.8 in his first three seasons in the league, and then he broke out with a career best 72.8 PFF grade last season after becoming the full-time starter. By trading Robinson in the final year of his contract and extending Little on a 3-year, 40.5 million dollar deal, the Jaguars essentially chose the younger, less experienced Walker over Robinson and it appears they made the right decision. He’s still relatively inexperienced, but he could easily remain an above average starter, still only going into his age 26 season.

Ezra Cleveland and Anton Harrison remain at left guard and right tackle respectively. Cleveland, a 2020 2nd round pick, has made 69 starts in five seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons, maxing out at 73.5 in 2022 and finishing at 64.9 last season. He should remain at least a capable starter again in 2025. Harrison, meanwhile, was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled as a rookie with a 53.0 PFF grade across 17 starts, before taking a step forward with a 64.2 PFF grade across 16 starts. Still only going into his age 23 season, Harrison could have his best season yet in 2025.

The Jaguars’ starting five offensive line isn’t bad, but it isn’t particularly good either and their depth is a concern as well. Chuma Edoga was added in free agency to be the swing tackle and he’s been mostly mediocre through 23 starts in six seasons in the league. On the interior, the Jaguars used a 3rd round pick on guard Wyatt Milum and they have center Luke Fortner, a 2022 3rd round pick who made all 34 starts in his first two seasons in the league, but struggled mightily with PFF grades of 49.6 and 44.3 respectively, leading to him being replaced by Mitch Morse last off-season. Overall, this is an underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

At running back, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby split carries pretty evenly last season, with carry totals of 150 and 168 respectively. That was a big change from 2022 and 2023, when Etienne was the Jaguars’ clear lead back. It looked like that would remain the case in 2024, but Etienne declined in efficiency for the second year in a row, while Bigsby had a mini breakout year in his second season in the league, after struggling with a 2.64 YPC average on 50 carries as a 3rd round rookie in 2023.

Etienne, a 2021 first round pick, missed his whole rookie year with injury, but returned to rush for 1,125 yards and 5 touchdowns on 220 carries in 2022, averaging 5.11 YPC, with 3.10 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 50.9%, and a missed tackle rate of 26.0%. In 2023, he fell to 3.78 YPC on 267 carries, with 2.87 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 43.1%, and a missed tackle rate of 24.0% and then in 2024, he fell to 3.72 YPC, with 2.48 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 45.3%, and a missed tackle rate of 11.3%. Bigsby, meanwhile, improved to a 4.56 YPC average last season, with 3.74 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 49.4%, and a missed tackle rate of 27.4%.

The Jaguars seemed unsatisfied with their backfield options this off-season and may have taken the draft class’ top running back, Ashton Jeanty, at 5 if they had been unable to move up to take Travis Hunter. Instead, the Jaguars waited until the 4th round, when they took Bhayshul Tuten, who could have an immediate role as part of a three headed backfield. Etienne is probably locked into the primary passing down role, averaging a 44/349/0 slash line with 1.07 yards per route run over the past three seasons, while Bigsby has averaged just 0.36 yards per route run in his career, but Tuten does have some upside as a receiver as well and could play his way into some snaps on passing downs. Overall, this is an underwhelming backfield, but the Jaguars do have some options.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Jaguars’ defense was a big problem last season. Overall, they ranked 31st in yards per play allowed and 30th in first down rate allowed. They did have one obvious strength though, their edge defender duo of Josh Allen and Travon Walker combined for 18.5 of the teams’ 34 sacks (5th worst in the NFL). Walker led the team with 10.5 sacks, but Allen was the better of the two, as he added 9 hits and a 12.9% pressure rate to his 8 sacks, while also playing at a high level against the run, leading to a dominant 82.7 PFF grade. 

That was nothing new for Allen, who had PFF grades of 78.5, 82.9, and 89.5 in his previous three seasons, while combining for 40 sacks, 54 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 66 games over the past four seasons. Still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. Walker, meanwhile, only added 5 hits and a 10.1% pressure rate to his 10.5 sacks, finishing only slightly above average on PFF with a 68.2 grade. That was a career best PFF grade for Walker, who had grades of 60.3 and 53.9 in his first two seasons in the league, but the former #1 overall pick is still only going into his age 25 season and could have more untapped upside. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have another career best year in 2025.

Behind Allen and Walker, the Jaguars had Arik Armstead, a hybrid player who split snaps between the edge and the interior. Armstead had a 68.7 PFF grade across 569 snaps, with 2 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate, which isn’t bad, but it is a decline from most of his career, as he has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of ten seasons in the league, while totaling 35.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 133 career games. Armstead is now heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue declining in 2025. 

Behind Allen, Walker, and Armstead, the Jaguars’ options are limited. Yasir Abdullah had a 56.6 PFF grade across 170 snaps last season, after posting a 30.7 PFF grade across 45 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2023. Myles Cole, a 2024 7th round pick, had a 34.0 PFF grade across 135 snaps as a rookie. The Jaguars added veteran Emmanuel Ogbah in free agency this off-season, but he is going into his age 32 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons, after being a solid player in his prime. This is a talented edge defender group, but it is a bit of a top heavy position group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a big position of weakness last season, as only one of the Jaguars’ top five interior defenders in terms of snaps played finished above 60 on PFF. That one player, Jeremiah Ledbetter, who had a 63.0 PFF grade across 441 snaps, is no longer with the team and the Jaguars didn’t make any significant additions to this group this off-season, but there is at least some room for optimism at this position because the Jaguars have some young players with upside.

Probably the highest upside player of the group is Maason Smith, who only had a 43.7 PFF grade across 384 snaps last season, but the 2024 2nd round pick could easily take a big step forward in his second season in the league, though obviously that’s far from a guarantee and, even if he does, he has a long way to go towards being a solid starter. The Jaguars also took Jordan Jefferson in the 4th round of the 2024 NFL Draft and he showed some promise as a rookie with a 62.7 PFF grade, albeit on just 151 snaps. Tyler Lacy, a 2023 4th round pick, is also in the mix for a role, but he has PFF grades of 58.2 and 45.2 across snap counts of 145 and 340 respectively in his first two seasons in the league.

Veteran Davon Hamilton will also likely continue playing a role. He may have some upside, as he had a 74.9 PFF grade across 610 snaps in 2022 and is still only in his age 28 season, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in his other four seasons in the league, so it’s very possible that 2022 was a fluke and that he will continue struggling. Overall, this looks like a very underwhelming position group, but it at least has some upside.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Jaguars did get some good play out of the linebacker position last season, led by a talented duo of Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun. Lloyd is a 2022 1st round pick who has posted PFF grades of 78.1 and 76.7 over the past two seasons respectively on snap counts of 966 and 884 respectively, after struggling with a 48.3 PFF grade across 925 snaps as a rookie. Lloyd is likely to continue being an above average every down linebacker going forward, seemingly having permanently turned a corner. Oluokun, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 69.6, 75.2, and 68.5 across snap counts of 1,145, 1,110, and 815 over the past three seasons respectively since joining the Jaguars. He is now going into his age 30 season and could start declining soon, but there is a good chance he remains at least a solid starter for another season.

Depth is a bit of a concern behind the Jaguars’ top-2 linebackers though, which could be an issue if either Lloyd or Oluokon miss time with injury. Chad Muma was a third round pick in 2022 and has PFF grades of 54.9, 38.1, and 57.4 across 692 total snaps played in three seasons in the league. Ventrell Miller is a 2023 4th round pick who struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade across 482 snaps in the first action of his career last season. The Jaguars also added 4th and 6th round picks through this year’s draft, taking Jack Kiser and Jalen McLeod respectively. All of the options are likely to struggle if forced into a significant role by injuries in 2025, but the Jaguars will have a good linebacker duo if both options stay healthy.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Safety was a position of weakness for the Jaguars last season, as Andre Cisco (979 snaps), Darnell Savage (764 snaps), and Antonio Johnson (685 snaps) all played significant snap totals, but all struggled, with PFF grades of 58.8, 46.2, and 50.1 respectively. Cisco wasn’t retained this off-season, but the Jaguars didn’t do much to replace him, only signing Eric Murray in free agency and using a third round pick on Caleb Ransaw. They will compete with holdovers Antonio Johnson and Darnell Savage for starting jobs.

Murray had a decent 61.7 PFF grade across 857 snaps last season, but that was the first season in which he played more than 400 snaps and had a PFF grade higher than 60 since 2018, which was the only other time he has done that in nine seasons in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, it seems unlikely he will do that two years in a row, so he’s likely to be a liability if he ends up winning a starting job. 

Savage is a former first round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in three of his six seasons in the league and he is only in his age 28 season, but those three seasons below 60 have come in the past four seasons, so it seems likely he will remain a liability if he wins the starting job again in 2025. Johnson, meanwhile, is a 2023 5th round pick who flashed potential with a 73.8 PFF grade across 172 snaps as a rookie, but who couldn’t translate that into a much larger role last season. Regardless of which two safeties end up as the starters, safety is likely to remain a position of liability in 2025.

The Jaguars weren’t as bad at cornerback last season, but they still spent to add ex-Cowboys cornerback Jourdan Lewis on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal that likely locks him into a starting role. Lewis had a 71.7 PFF grade across 871 snaps last season, but that was a higher season-long grade than any season in the five seasons prior, a stretch in which he finished below 60 three times. Lewis is now going into his age 30 season, so it seems unlikely he will be able to repeat last season’s performance.

Tyson Campbell and Jarrian Jones are likely locked into starting roles as well. Campbell looked like he was on his way to being one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come after a 2022 campaign in which the 2021 2nd round pick finished with a 82.1 PFF grade, following a 62.7 PFF grade across 864 snaps as a rookie. However, he has fallen to PFF grades of 61.5 and 62.9 respectively over the past two seasons. 

Campbell is still only going into his age 25 season though, so he still has plenty of upside and it’s likely that injuries have been part of the reason for his disappointing play over the past two seasons, as he has missed 11 games over those two seasons combined, while being limited in numerous others. He’s still a complete one-year wonder in terms of being the player he was in 2022, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if 2025 was at least the second best season of his career.

Jarrion Jones, meanwhile, is a 2024 3rd round pick who had an impressive rookie season in the slot, with a 69.0 PFF grade across 699 snaps. He should continue being a solid slot cornerback, with the upside to continue getting better. The Jaguars also still have Montaric Brown, who was decent with a 62.2 PFF grade across 855 snaps, but who will likely be a reserve this season with Jourdan Lewis being added. Brown is also a one-year wonder, as the 2022 7th round had PFF grades of 37.3 and 51.3 on snap counts of 63 and 475 respectively in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Travis Hunter will also have a role as a reserve as well. The Jaguars are much better at cornerback than safety, but have an underwhelming secondary overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Jaguars used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker in Cam Little and it proved to be a smart move, as he went 27 of 29 on field goals, including 13 of 15 on kicks of 40+ yards, as well as 27 of 27 on extra points. In terms of points above average, Little ranked 6th in the NFL with 8.54. It is only one year, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he ended up being one of the best kickers in the league for years to come. 

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Jaguars roster isn’t significantly improved compared to a year ago. They made some additions in free agency, but none of them look likely to move the needle. They are hoping that their rookie class and improved coaching on both sides of the ball can help them improve, which is likely true, but the Jaguars finished last season 27th in yards per play differential and 31st in first down rate differential, so they have a long way to go to even be an average team and it looks unlikely that will happen in 2025.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC South

New England Patriots 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Quarterback

The Patriots were once the standard of consistent excellence in the NFL, winning their division 17 times in a 20-year span from 2000-2019, with nine Super Bowl appearances, six Super Bowl victories, and the league’s best record during that stretch by a wide margin. However, things have quickly fallen apart since Tom Brady left during the 2020 off-season. The Patriots have made the post-season once in five years without him, with no division titles, no post-season victories, and a record of 33-51 over those five seasons. They have been especially bad over the past two seasons, bottoming out with a combined 8-26 record.

Brady’s departure obviously is a big part of why they have struggled in recent years, but their poor drafting in recent years has been a big problem as well and that dates back to even before Brady left. The last time this team drafted a player who made an All-Pro on either offense or defense was back in the 2016 NFL Draft, when they took Joe Thuney. The result is a roster that has been one of the worst in the league over the past two seasons.

Because they haven’t drafted well, the Patriots haven’t had players worth giving big second contracts to. The result of that is the Patriots entered this off-season with the most cap space in the league. The Patriots spent aggressively this off-season, but spending in free agency often means overpaying players that other teams didn’t want to keep, while the good teams build through the draft and use their cap space to keep their talent. That was largely the case for the Patriots this off-season.

That being said, there are some reasons to be optimistic for the Patriots. For one, while many of their off-season additions were overpays, they do make this team better. On top of that, the Patriots added an experienced head coach in Mike Vrabel, who consistently got the most out of his talent in Tennessee. Vrabel brings with him an experienced offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels, whose success as an offensive coordinator in his career has led to him getting two head coaching opportunities. 

Probably the biggest reason to be optimistic about this team’s future is their talented young quarterback. As bad as the Patriots have drafted in recent years, they seem like they hit on the #3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, when they selected Drake Maye. Maye’s numbers weren’t impressive as a rookie, as he completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, with 7.80 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 54 carries, but his supporting cast was a big part of the reason for his underwhelming production, as Maye himself finished with a solid PFF grade of 70.1. Now going into his second season in the league, with a better supporting cast and an improved coaching staff, Maye could easily take a big step forward, both in terms of his own level of play and particularly in terms of his level of production.

The Patriots actually drafted two quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft, taking Joe Milton with a 6th round pick. He made a start in a meaningless week 18 game against the Bills’ backups last season and impressed, completing 22 of 29 for 241 yards and a touchdown. That could have been the start of Milton developing into a good backup for Drake Maye, but Milton reportedly felt he should have been the starter long-term instead and the Patriots were forced to deal him to the Cowboys for a swap of late round picks this off-season and will instead have a veteran in Joshua Dobbs behind Maye on the depth chart.

Dobbs is a mediocre backup option, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 5.98 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions across 549 career pass attempts and 15 starts in eight seasons in the league, with just 3 of those starts being wins. He also doesn’t have much upside, going into his age 30 season, and would be a big downgrade from Maye if forced to make significant starts. Still, this quarterback room is going in the right direction with Drake Maye looking like a potential future franchise quarterback, something he could take another step forward towards becoming in his second season in the league in 2025.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One of the biggest off-season additions the Patriots made was signing wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a 3-year, 63.5 million dollar deal. Diggs has been one of the most accomplished wide receivers in the league over his 10 seasons in the league, surpassing 1000 yards receiving in every season from 2018-2023, while averaging 2.09 yards per route run for his career. He seemed like he was on his way to another 1000+ yard season in 2024, when he had a 47/496/3 slash line and 1.84 yards per route run through eight games, but he then tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.

Not Diggs is not only coming off of a significant injury, but he’s also going into his age 32 season. Age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, as a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. It seems likely Diggs’ best days are behind him, but even at significantly less than his peak, he would still be a boost for a receiving corps that was arguably the worst in the NFL last season. He figures to be the de facto #1 wide receiver, even with his age and injury concerns.

The rest of this wide receiver group is unsettled. Demario Douglas is probably the favorite to be the #2 wide receiver. The 2023 6th round pick has been their top wide receiver by default over the past two seasons, averaging a 58/591/2 slash line and 1.53 yards per route run through two seasons in the league. Douglas is still only going into his age 25 season and may have further untapped upside, but he’s still pretty underwhelming as a #2 receiver.

Also in the mix for roles are third round rookie Kyle Williams, veteran journeyman free agent signing Mack Hollins, veteran holdover Kendrick Bourne, 2023 6th round pick Kayshon Boutte, and 2024 2nd round pick JaLynn Polk. Williams has upside, but might be too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. Hollins has averaged just 1.07 yards per route run in eight seasons in the league, including just 0.92 yards per route run last season, and now heads into his age 32 season. Bourne averaged 1.76 yards per route run across his first three seasons with the Patriots, but suffered a torn ACL midway through his third season in 2023 and was not the same upon his return in 2024, averaging just 1.06 yards per route run. 

Bourne could be better in 2025, another year removed from his injury, but that’s not a guarantee, especially since he’s also getting up there in age, now heading into his age 30 season. Boutte was second on the team among wide receivers in receiving with a 43/589/3 slash line last season, but was part of the problem, with just 1.26 yards per route run, in the first significant action of his career. Polk has still upside, but struggled mightily with 0.35 yards per route run as a rookie. It’s possible that several of these wide receivers will play situational/rotational roles as the Patriots try to make the most of a wide receiver group that has some options, but is underwhelming overall.

The strength of this receiving corps last season was the tight end spot, where Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper finished with slash lines of 66/674/2 and 45/476/3 respectively on averages of 1.39 yards per route run and 1.65 yards per route run respectively. Henry’s performance last season was largely in line with his career average of 1.47 yards per route run, while Hooper also has a decent 1.37 yards per route run average for his career. 

The problem is both are now heading into their age 31 season and could start to decline. They’ll probably still be heavily involved in the offense, given the Patriots’ issues at wide receiver, but they might not be as efficient or effective as a year ago. The Patriots don’t have any promising young tight end options behind them on the depth chart, with 2024 7th round pick Jaheim Bell, who played just 84 mediocre snaps as a rookie, likely to be the #3 tight end. This receiving corps is better by default than last season, but is still an unsettled group that has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As bad as the Patriots’ receiving corps was last season, their offensive line was arguably even worse, finishing 31st on PFF in pass blocking grade and 32nd in run blocking grade. A ridiculous twelve different offensive linemen made starts for the Patriots last season and only one of them finished above 60 on PFF. Fortunately, the Patriots made some additions to this offensive line this off-season that should be upgrades, even if some are likely to be upgrades by default.

The biggest addition they made was using the 4th overall pick on LSU left tackle Will Campbell. Campbell isn’t as good as most left tackle prospects selected in the top-5 and may ultimately have to move to right tackle or guard long-term, but he should still be an immediate upgrade at left tackle and is likely to be an above average starter somewhere on this offensive line long-term. Additionally, the Patriots signed veterans Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury in free agency and used a third round pick on Jared Wilson.

Moses will start at right tackle, where he has made 157 starts over the past ten seasons, with just six games missed due to injury over that stretch. Moses has also finished above 60 on PFF in all ten of those seasons, including six seasons over 70. However, Moses now heads into his age 34 season and his 63.3 PFF grade in 2024 was the lowest across that stretch. Additionally, all six of the games he has missed with injury over that stretch have come in the past two seasons. 

Moses’ best days are almost definitely behind him at this point and he could continue declining and/or miss more time with injury. However, he will still be a welcome addition, given how bad the Patriots were at right tackle last season. Moses will be backed up by Caedan Wallace, who was one of those right tackles who struggled last season, with a 44.1 PFF grade across 129 snaps as a rookie, but he was a 2024 3rd round pick and still has upside long-term.

Bradbury, meanwhile, will start at center. The 2019 1st round pick has never lived up to where he was drafted. He has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons (72 starts), but he has maxed out at a 70.2 PFF grade, so he’s no more than a solid starter at best, especially now going into his age 30 season. Like Moses, he should still be a welcome addition. Jared Wilson is also primarily a center, but his best path to playing time as a rookie is probably at left guard, where Cole Strange is currently penciled in as the starter.

Strange is a former first round pick, selected 29th overall in 2022, but he was a reach when he was selected there and hasn’t shown anything in three seasons in the league to suggest that wasn’t the case. Strange did take a step forward between year one and year two, going from a 54.6 PFF grade to a 64.6 PFF grade, but then he suffered a brutal knee injury late in his second season that kept him out for most of his third season in 2024 and when he returned he only had a 48.6 PFF grade across 117 snaps. Another year removed from his injury, Strange could bounce back to his 2022 form, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, it’s unlikely he ever proves himself to have been worth a first round pick.

At right guard, Mike Onwenu is the only holdover who didn’t struggle last season, with a 65.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. That was actually a down year for him, as the 2020 6th round pick received PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, and 71.5 across a total of 56 starts in his first four seasons in the league, prior to last season. Still only in his age 28 season, Onwenu has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. With Onwenu likely to bounce back, the additions of Campbell, Moses, Bradbury, and Wilson, and Cole Strange potentially bouncing back as well, this offensive line looks a lot better than a year ago, but this is still only an average unit at best.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The running back position wasn’t a position of weakness last season. Lead back Rhamondre Stevenson only averaged 3.87 yards per carry across 207 carries, but that was largely because he struggled to find running room on an overall poor offense. In three seasons in the league prior to last season, Stevenson averaged 4.54 yards per carry across 499 carries and, only in his age 27 season, he should bounce back on a better offense in 2025. However, the Patriots still used a high draft pick on another running back, TreVeyon Henderson, who they selected in the second round. Henderson might not take Stevenson’s lead back job as a rookie, but he figures to at least the second part of a one-two punch at running back, using his speed and athleticism to complement the size of the 6-0 227 Stevenson.

Stevenson’s addition likely means the end of Antonio Gibson having a significant role on this offense. He was actually great in limited action last season, significantly exceeding Stevenson’s average with a 4.48 YPC on 120 carries, while ranking 2nd among running backs with 3.91 yards per carry after contact and 1st among running backs with a 131.2 elusive rating. That was out of line with his career averages though, as he averaged 4.11 yards per carry, 2.76 yards per carry after contact, and maxed out at an elusive rating of 86.9 in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. He would likely need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see any sort of significant role on this offense, but he’s great insurance as far as #3 backs go.

Gibson was also the Patriots’ best receiving back last season, averaging 1.26 yards per route run and taking 29 targets for a 23/206/0 slash line, as opposed to 0.62 yards per route run and a 33/168/1 slash line on 41 targets for Stevenson, but pass catching was a strength of Henderson’s game at the collegiate level and he is likely to take a big chunk of Gibson’s playing time on passing downs as well. Stevenson could also bounce back a little bit as a receiver, as his career average of 1.01 yards per route run significantly exceeds his 2024 average. This is a solid backfield overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Patriots weren’t as bad on defense as they were on offense last season, but they still made some big additions on this side of the ball this off-season. The biggest addition was interior defender Milton Williams, who they signed to a 4-year, 104 million dollar deal, making him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league. Williams has had solid PFF grades of 72.6, 69.7, and 70.1 over the past three seasons, playing the run pretty well and adding 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate, but he only has snap counts of 396, 494, and 500 over those three seasons, so he is a projection to the larger role the Patriots are almost definitely counting on him to play. Milton was a third round pick in 2021 and is still only going into his age 26 season, so he could easily have the upside to become an above average every down interior defender, but that’s not a guarantee and the Patriots are betting a lot of money to find out.

Williams will start next to Christian Barmore, who also has a lot of upside. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Barmore had PFF grades of 63.5 and 68.6 across snap counts of 598 and 327 in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 83.8 PFF grade across 750 snaps in 2023. Barmore was a high level pass rusher even in his first two seasons, combining for 12.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 44 games across the three seasons, and his run defense caught up with that in his third season. 

However, Barmore missed most of last season recovering from a serious illness and, while he is expected to return to full strength in 2025, that is not necessarily a guarantee. Even if he does return to full strength, he’s still a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023. Only in his age 26 season, he could be one of the better interior defenders in the league for years to come if he can return to form, but he comes with some downside as well.

Daniel Ekuale and Davon Godchaux were the Patriots’ top-2 interior defenders last season in terms of snaps played at 723 and 680 respectively, but they were a mediocre duo, with PFF grades of 60.3 and 51.6 respectively, and neither was retained this off-season. Jeremiah Pharms is their leader in terms of snaps played among returning interior defenders and he will likely still have a reserve role, but the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled with a 58.1 PFF grade across 457 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2024 and he will likely continue struggling in 2025.

The Patriots also added Khyiris Tonga in free agency and used a 4th round pick on Joshua Farmer to give them additional depth at the interior defender position. Tonga has mostly been solid in his career, with PFF grades of 52.1, 77.9, 67.7, and 60.0 in four seasons since being selected in the 7th round in 2021, but he has only played snap counts of 217, 276, 188, and 229 in those four seasons, so he would be best as a deep reserve and would be a projection to a larger role if forced into one. Farmer, meanwhile, has upside, but is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one. This should be a solid position group overall, led by Christian Barmore, who is returning from a lost season, and Milton Williams, who was added in free agency.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Patriots also added Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson in free agency, on deals worth 43.5 million over 3 years and 3 million over 1 year respectively. They will replace Deatrich Wise, who left this off-season after receiving a mediocre 59.7 PFF grade across 409 snaps last season, and they will take some of the burden off of Keion White and Anfernee Jennings, who were likely overstretched last season with snap counts of 830 and 831 respectively.

White will probably be the best of the bunch. A 2023 2nd round pick, White was decent as a rookie with a 64.2 PFF grade across 522 snaps before taking a step forward in year two with a 68.5 PFF grade, holding up against the run and totaling 5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. He could be even better in his third season in the league in 2024, especially if a reduced snap count makes him more efficient. Jennings, meanwhile, is best as a situational run stopper, with PFF grades of 71.4, 78.0, 85.9, and 73.0 against the run in four seasons in the league, but only a career 8.4% pressure rate, including just 2.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 2024.

Landry is also a better run defender than pass rusher, totaling 50.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 98 career games, while surpassing 60 on PFF in run defense grade in every season except his rookie season in 2018, including a 82.2 run defense grade last season (6th among edge defenders), which offset the 9 sacks, 6 hits, and 7.1% pressure rate he had as a pass rusher. I would expect him to be a similar player again in 2025, above average as a run defender and below average as a pass rusher. He rejoins former head coach Mike Vrabel, who he was with in Tennessee for the first six seasons of his career from 2018-2023.

Chaisson, meanwhile, is a bust as a 2020 1st round pick, finishing below average on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, on an average of just 336 snaps per season, but he seemed to take a step forward in his fifth season in the league, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade across 508 snaps. It’s possible last season proves to be a fluke and, even if it wasn’t, it’s not exactly a great season, but he’s always had talent and is still only in his age 26 season, so it’s very possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a decent rotational player. This is a decent, if unspectacular edge defender group.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Patriots also added Robert Spillane and Jack Gibbens to a linebacking corps that also returns their top-2 linebackers in terms of snaps played from last season, Jahlani Tavai (916 snaps) and Christian Elliss (514 snaps). Spillane signed for 33 million over 3 years, while Gibbens signed for just 1.3 million over 1 year. Spillane is likely locked into a starting role by virtue of his salary. Spillane has been one of the best run stopping linebackers in the league over the past three seasons, with PFF run defense grades of 77.3, 89.0, and 87.3 respectively, but he has also consistently struggled in coverage, with PFF coverage grades of 39.5, 59.0, and 48.8 respectively. Now in his age 30 season, he is who he is at this stage of his career and could start to decline in 2025. He might not play quite every down, coming off the field in some passing situations in a deep linebacking corps, but I expect him to play significant snaps as a starter.

Tavai had PFF grades of 73.5 and 86.6 across snap counts of 570 and 838 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but he fell to a 54.7 PFF grade across 916 snaps in 2024. That’s largely in line with how Tavai played before joining the Patriots, when he had PFF grades of 61.6 and 32.1 on snap counts of 597 and 624 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Tavai was a second round pick in 2019 and has always had upside, but it’s very possible he will never be the same linebacker he was under former head coach Bill Belichick. Tavai is still relatively young in his age 29 season and could have some bounce back potential, but he also could continue struggling.

Elliss actually played pretty well last season, with a 72.6 PFF grade across 514 snaps as a part-time player. That kind of came out of nowhere, as the 2021 undrafted free agent had only played 150 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league prior to last season, so he could regress in 2025, but he could still earn a role at least as a coverage linebacker and has a good chance to be useful in that role. 

Gibbens, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent signing from Mike Vrabel’s Titans. He had a decent 60.0 PFF grade across 214 snaps as a rookie, seemed to break out as a solid situational run stopper in 2023, with a 71.2 PFF grade across 628 snaps, and he seemed to be on his way to an even better season in 2024, when he had a 83.2 PFF grade across 234 snaps, but he suffered a season ending injury and wasn’t retained as a restricted free agent. Now in New England, he should at least be good depth, but could also earn a role as an early down linebacker. This isn’t a spectacular unit, but the Patriots have options in a deep group overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Patriots’ secondary was the strength of their defense last season and should remain a strength in 2025. Christian Gonzalez, who the Patriots selected 17th overall in 2023, has been the best draft pick the Patriots have had in years. He flashed a lot of talent with a 80.8 PFF grade across 209 snaps in an injury shortened rookie season and translated that to a season-long role in 2024, when he ranked 12th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 76.0 grade. Still only going into his age 23 season, there is no reason to expect Gonzalez won’t develop into one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The Patriots gave Carlton Davis a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal to hopefully upgrade the other cornerback spot, with Jonathan Jones leaving this off-season after a 60.7 PFF grade across 712 snaps. Davis finished last season with a 74.5 PFF grade and, while that was the best season of his career and he has been inconsistent throughout his career, he has also finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of his seven seasons in the league, since being selected in the 2nd round in 2018. He’s still relatively young in his age 29 season and should at least be a solid starter. The one concern with him is injuries, as he has missed at least two games due to injury in every season in the league, with 27 games missed total. 

Slot cornerback Marcus Jones remains. He’s a solid option when healthy, with PFF grades of 67.6, 64.2, and 70.2 in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2022, but he’s missed at least two games in every season in the league, with 20 games missed total. The 586 snaps he played last season were a career high. If he can stay healthy, he should remain a solid slot option, still only in his age 27 season, but it seems likely he will miss more time with injury at some point this season.

Cornerback depth is an issue, especially given how injury prone some of the starters are. The top reserve options are 2023 7th round pick Alex Austin, who has been decent but unspectacular with PFF grades of 62.0 and 61.1 across snap counts of 216 and 234 in two seasons in the league, Marcellas Dial, a 2024 6th round pick who played 61 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and 4th round rookie Craig Woodson. One of those three would be forced into a significant role if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart and they could easily struggle in that significant role.

At safety, Jabrill Peppers leads the way and is one of the better safeties in the league when on the field. He was limited to 372 snaps in six games due to off-the-field problems last season, but he still had a 82.3 PFF grade, after posting a 87.3 PFF grade across 955 snaps in 2023 and a 75.0 PFF grade across 398 snaps in a situational role in 2022. Peppers is now heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but even if he declines somewhat, the Patriots’ defense will still benefit from likely having him on the field for significantly more games in 2025 than he played in 2024.

Peppers will likely start next to Kyle Dugger, who has been a solid starter for most of his career, but who struggled mightily in a down year last season, finishing with a 44.3 PFF grade across 759 snaps. Prior to last season, the 2020 2nd round pick had finished above 60 in all four seasons in the league, including PFF grades of 71.8 and 78.4 respectively in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Still only going into his age 29 season, Dugger has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. One concern for him is durability, as he has missed at least two games in four of five seasons in the league, with 10 total games missed in his career.

Luckily, the Patriots do have better depth at safety than at cornerback. Marte Mapu is a 2023 3rd round pick who took a step forward in year two, with a 63.4 PFF grade across 487 snaps, after a 50.0 PFF grade across 204 snaps as a rookie. Dell Pettus is a 2024 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 73.9 PFF grade across 341 snaps as a rookie last season. Jaylinn Hawkins, their top reserve last season, had a PFF grade of 60.1 across 613 snaps, but that was the first season above 60 on PFF for him in five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Mapu or Pettus took over the top reserve role this season, as both are higher upside options than Hawkins. Overall, this is a well above average secondary, led by top cornerback Christian Gonzalez and top safety Jabrill Peppers.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Joey Slye was the Patriots’ kicker last season and he was below average, costing the Patriots about 5.42 points below average. In total, he made just 78.8% of his field goals last season. The Patriots let him go this off-season and replaced him with 6th round pick Andres Borregales, who was one of the most effective collegiate kickers throughout his career, surpassing 80% in field goal percentage in all four seasons, including an 18 of 19 final season in which he hit 7 of 8 from 40+ with a long of 56. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Slye right away and he has the upside to be an above average kicker for years to come.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Patriots overpaid many of their free agent additions this off-season, but between their free agent additions, what looks like a strong draft class, their new coaching staff, and quarterback Drake Maye going into his second season in the league, it’s not hard to see how this team could take a big step forward, after finishing just 4-13 last season. Perhaps the biggest thing working in their favor this season is that they have one of the weakest schedules in the league. That could be enough to propel a decent team to sneak into the post-season in the AFC.

Update: The surprise release of Jabrill Peppers and the uncertainty injury situation of cornerback Christian Gonzalez hurts this team’s playoff chances.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC East

New York Jets 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Jets

Quarterback

The Jets thought they were about to become Super Bowl contenders when they traded for Aaron Rodgers two off-seasons ago, hoping to pair the talented veteran quarterback with a defense that was already one of the best in the league. However, that didn’t go according to plan. Rodgers lasted four snaps into his first season in New York, going down for the season with a torn achilles, and a league worst quarterback situation in his absence wasted a dominant defensive performance, as the Jets finished just 7-10, despite ranking 1st in yards per play allowed and 2nd in first down rate allowed.

Rodgers returned in 2024, but the offense still wasn’t as good as expected, finishing 21st in yards per play and 17th in first down rate, while the defense was even more disappointing, still ranking 2nd in yards per play allowed, but plummeting to 22nd in first down rate allowed. That was partially due to the Jets’ defense losing some key players between 2023 and 2024, but the bigger issue is the Jets fired defensive minded head coach Robert Saleh after a disappointing 2-3 start and, without him, the defense totally collapsed, leading to the team finishing 5-12 overall, including 3-9 after firing Saleh.

The Jets went all in on trying to compete over the past two seasons and, after disappointing in both seasons, opted to go into a full rebuild this off-season, going from 7th in average age and 9th in average annual value of their roster in 2024 to 28th in average age and 24th in average annual value of their roster in 2025. Rodgers and several other expensive aging veterans were either released or not retained as free agents and new defensive minded head coach Aaron Glenn will attempt to resurrect what is left of a once dominant defensive unit.

With this year’s quarterback class being a below average one, the Jets opted to address the quarterback position in free agency, signing Justin Fields to a 2-year, 40 million dollar deal with 30 million guaranteed. Fields was the 11th overall pick in the draft just four years ago, has had his moments, and is still only going into his age 26 season, so he was a worthwhile flier for the Jets, but it seems unlikely that this will be the situation that finally gets the most out of him, given all of the other issues the Jets have. He will probably be a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers who, while he wasn’t as good as he had been in the past and while this team disappointed overall, still had a solid 77.8 PFF grade in 2024.

In four seasons in the league, Fields has made 44 starts and has completed 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.95 YPA, 45 touchdowns, and 31 interceptions as a passer, while excelling on the ground with 6.00 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 418 carries. In terms of PFF grade, he has been at 64.2, 70.2, 74.6, and 71.5 over those four seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2025, but he was probably the best option the Jets could have hoped for this off-season. He at least has some upside and, in the likely scenario he doesn’t make good on that upside, the Jets would be better positioned to be selecting high in a much better quarterback draft in 2026.

Fields will be backed up by Tyrod Taylor, who has made 58 starts in his career, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 68 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, while rushing for 5.60 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 407 carries. However, he is now in his age 36 season and is only a backup at this stage of his career, albeit an above average backup. If Fields struggles as expected, there is a good chance he gets benched for Taylor at some point this season, but Taylor wouldn’t necessarily be an upgrade and he doesn’t nearly have the upside Fields has.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

In addition to released Rodgers’ ahead of a 37.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, they also got rid of his long-time #1 receiver Davante Adams, ahead of a 36.25 million dollar non-guaranteed salary. Adams was acquired mid-season from the Raiders last year and proceeded to be Rodgers’ best receiver the rest of the way, with a 67/854/7 slash line in just 11 games, averaging a team leading 2.16 yards per route run. The Jets did keep another favorite target of Rodgers’ this off-season, Aaron Lazard, but only after he agreed to slash the remaining non-guaranteed 22 million over 2 years left on his contract down to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal.

Garrett Wilson was the Jets #1 receiver before Adams was added and, even after taking a backseat to Adams for most of last season, he still finished last season with a 101/1104/7 slash line and a 1.69 yards per route run average. Overall, the 2022 1st round pick has exceeded 1000 yards receiving in all three seasons in the league, with an average slash line of 93/1083/5 and a yards per route run average of 1.69, despite inconsistent at best quarterback play. His quarterback play probably won’t be better this season, but he comes with a high floor and, still only in his age 25 season, he also comes with additional upside.

Even though he had to take a big pay cut to stay on the roster, Allen Lazard still figures to have a significant passing game role by default, given the Jets’ other options. Lazard has made a living off of having chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, but, even though he has played with Rodgers for most of his career, he still only has a 1.31 yards per route run average for his career, including 1.26 last season. Now going into his age 30 season, without his favorite quarterback, he figures to be even more inefficient. 

The Jets’ don’t have a better #2 option though, as the rest of the depth chart consists of veteran journeyman free agent addition Josh Reynolds, who has averaged 1.21 yards per route run in eight seasons in the league and now heads into his age 30 season, fellow veteran journeyman free agent addition Tyler Johnson, who has averaged 1.06 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, 4th round rookie Arian Smith, who is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one, and 2024 3rd round pick Malachi Coley, who averaged just 0.34 yards per route run as a rookie. Reynolds is probably the favorite for the #3 receiver job by default, in a very thin position group.

Given their issues at wide receiver, the Jets might focus more of their passing game on the tight end position this off-season. However, the Jets top tight end is second round rookie Mason Taylor, who has a big upside, but could be an inefficient target in a big role in year one. His only competition for the top tight end job is 2022 3rd round pick Jeremy Ruckert, who has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, while averaging 0.83 yards per route run, and free agent addition Stone Smartt, who has never played more than 307 snaps in a season in three years in the league, while averaging just 1.17 yards per route run in a situational role. Taylor will likely have to be a big part of this passing game whether he is ready for that or not. Outside of talented #1 receiver Garrett Wilson, this offense severely lacks reliable pass catchers.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Jets also let go of their two tackles from a year ago, Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who had PFF grades of 73.7 and 63.3, but were heading into their age 35 and age 34 seasons respectively. To replace them, the Jets will promote swing tackle Olu Fashanu, a 2024 1st round pick who had a 61.2 PFF grade across 7 starts as a rookie, and they drafted Armand Membou in the first round of this year’s draft to give them a long-term bookend. Both are inexperienced and raw, but both have huge upsides and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were at least a solid duo in 2025. Fashanu figures to start at left tackle, while Membou stays at his collegiate position of right tackle.

The rest of the Jets’ offensive line remains the same as last year, which is a good thing, as this was actually a solid unit, ranking 17th in pass block grade and 12th in run block grade on PFF. Right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker is also a former first round pick, selected 14th overall in 2021. Last year he had a career best 77.7 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 66.8, 71.8, and 71.7 in his first three seasons in the league. The problem is he missed 20 games due to injury over those three seasons, before making 15 starts in 2024. He’s always had a lot of talent and could play at a similar level in 2025 as he did in 2024, but he remains a higher than average injury risk.

Center Joe Tippmann is also a recent high draft pick, selected in the 2nd round in 2023. He had a decent rookie year with a 61.0 PFF grade across 14 starts, before taking a step forward with a 73.4 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2024. He’s technically still a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he could easily continue playing at an above average level and may have further untapped upside, still only in his age 24 season.

The biggest surprise on this offensive line last season was left guard John Simpson, who had a 77.3 PFF grade in 17 starts, after finishing below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. It’s possible the former 2020 4th round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, but he also could easily regress and prove last season to be a fluke. 

Max Mitchell will likely be the swing tackle. The 2022 4th round pick has received PFF grades of 55.5, 49.3, and 65.1 in three seasons in the league, across 14 starts. He did take a step forward in his third season in the league last season and he’s not a bad backup, but he could still struggle if forced into a significant role. On the interior, the Jets have 2020 6th round pick Jake Hanson, who has been mediocre in seven career starts, and free agent addition Josh Myers, a 2021 2nd round pick who has made 56 starts in four seasons in the league, but who has mostly been mediocre, with PFF grades of 58.3, 60.4, 55.8, and 55.7. The Jets have a promising tackle duo of back-to-back first round picks and they have three players coming off great seasons on the interior, though all three of them had career best years and they might not repeat those seasons again in 2025. Still, this looks like an above average offensive line.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Jets’ running game wasn’t bad last season, ranking 16th in the NFL with 4.30 yards per carry, but lead back Breece Hall was a bit of a disappointment. A 2nd round pick in 2022, Hall averaged 4.81 YPC on 303 carries with 1.82 yards per route run across his first two seasons in the league, despite a torn ACL that ended his rookie season and affected him into his second season. Going into 2024, another year removed from the injury, many were expecting a breakout year for Hall, but he only averaged 4.19 YPC on 209 carries with 1.26 yards per route run.

Not only was Hall not as effective as expected, but he ceded more carries to 4th round rookie backup Braelon Allen than expected. Allen only averaged 3.63 yards per carry on his 92 carries, but he had a higher carry success rate than Hall, 51.1% vs. 46.4%, with his biggest issue being that he only had one carry longer than 15 yards (20) all season. I would expect a similar split between the two backs in 2025, but both could benefit from playing next to a quarterback like Justin Fields who can take off and run with the ball himself, which takes some of the defense’s focus off of the running back. Hall also has some bounce back potential from a down year in 2024 and he could have a big year as a pass catcher, given the Jets’ lack of options in the receiving game.

In addition to drafting Allen in last year’s draft, Jets also used a 5th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on another running back in Isaiah Davis. He averaged 5.80 YPC on 30 carries as the #3 running back last season and figures to have the same role in 2025. He probably won’t see much action, but would take over as the backup if Allen got hurt and, if Hall got hurt, Davis could see a bigger role as part of a committee with Allen. This is a solid backfield overall, even if Breece Hall didn’t have the breakout year many expected last season.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The area where the Jets declined the most on defense last season was probably the edge defender position. In 2023, the Jets had a very deep group on the edge, with Jermaine Johnson, John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Huff, Michael Clemons, and Will McDonald finishing with PFF grades of 83.0, 70.4, 79.7, 65.9, and 71.6 across snap counts of 748, 626, 481, 368, and 183 respectively. Going into 2024, the Jets let go of Huff and Franklin-Myers and replaced them with Haason Reddick, while hoping for more out of 2023 1st round pick Will McDonald in his second season in the league. 

However, Reddick ended up holding out for the first seven games of the season in search of a new contract and then struggled upon his return, with a 53.5 PFF grade across 392 snaps. Meanwhile, Jermaine Johnson was limited to 82 snaps in two games by a torn achilles. The result was Will McDonald and Michael Clemons being forced into much larger roles than the year before and struggling, with PFF grades of 756 and 624 respectively across snap counts of 59.4 and 50.6 respectively.

McDonald was an above average pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate, but struggled mightily in run defense. Now going into his third season in the league, McDonald still has the upside to be better in 2025, especially if he can play a smaller role, one more focused on rushing the passer in obvious passing situations. Clemons, meanwhile, is a 2022 4th round pick who flashed potential in his first two seasons in the league, also having a 78.7 PFF grade across 311 snaps as a rookie, in addition to his solid 2023 season. He could have a bounce back year if he is allowed to play a smaller role.

Haason Reddick is gone, but Johnson’s return could make a huge impact if he can return to form, as he not only dominated in 2023, but he is a 2022 1st round pick who also flashed potential with a 71.7 PFF grade across 312 snaps as a rookie. Johnson might not play quite as well in 2025 as he did in 2023, in his first season back from injury, but he should still be an above average player. The Jets also used a 5th round pick on Tyler Baron and have 2024 undrafted free agent Eric Watts, who had a decent 66.1 grade across 231 snaps as a rookie. They will compete for a deep reserve role. This position group is not nearly as deep as it once was and both McDonald and Clemons will probably have to play bigger roles than they should, but the re-addition of Jermaine Johnson should be a big boost.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Jets’ interior defenders also disappointed last season. The personnel was largely the same as 2023, but top interior defender Quinnen Williams fell to a 69.6 PFF grade, after receiving PFF grades of 90.1 and 90.6 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The 3rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Williams was inconsistent early in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 67.4, 81.4, and 64.4 in his first three seasons in the league, but it seemed like he had permanently turned a corner after back-to-back dominant seasons in 2022 and 2023. Williams is still only going into his age 28 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential, but that is not a guarantee, given his history of inconsistency and given that he had his best years under Robert Saleh, who is no longer with the team.

The Jets will need Williams to return to form because the rest of this position group is a significant issue. Javon Kinlaw and Solomon Thomas, who struggled with PFF grades of 53.4 and 45.6 across snap counts of 695 and 458 last season, are no longer with the team, but the players the Jets added to replace them aren’t necessarily upgrades. Derrick Nnadi, signed from the Chiefs, has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons on an average of just 290 snaps per season, including a career worst 35.8 PFF grade across a career low 221 snaps in 2024. 

Byron Cowart, signed from the Bears, has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in his career in which he has played significant snaps, including a 58.9 PFF grade across 335 snaps in 2024. Jay Tufele, signed from the Bengals, has never finished above 60 on PFF in four seasons in the league, while playing an average of just 132 snaps per season, including a career worst 44.4 PFF grade across a career high 242 snaps in 2024. The Jets do have Leonard Taylor, who showed some potential with a 62.7 PFF grade across 261 snaps last season, but that’s a small sample size for a 2024 undrafted free agent and it still wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a solid rotational player. Outside of Quinnen Williams, who is coming off of a down year, this position group has a lot of problems. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Jets’ linebackers were also disappointing in 2024. In 2023, CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams were one of the best linebacker duos in the league, with PFF grades of 82.9 and 81.1 respectively, but in 2024 Mosley was limited to 110 snaps in four games by injury, while Williams fell to a 68.0 PFF grade. Fortunately, the Jets did have Jamien Sherwood step up. A 2021 5th round pick who had only played 357 snaps in his first three seasons prior to last season, Sherwood ended up playing 1,063 snaps as the replacement for Mosley and finished the season with a 73.8 PFF grade. He’s still a one-year wonder, but that season didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 79.1 and 76.1 in 2022 and 2023 respectively as well, albeit on snap counts of 25 and 193 respectively. He might prove to be unable to repeat last season’s career best year, but he also could remain an above average every down starter.

Williams, meanwhile, is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023, so he’s no guarantee to bounce back in 2025. Prior to his back-to-back above average seasons, Williams finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, after being selected in the 3rd round in 2019. Williams is unlikely to reach his 2023 heights again, but he’s also even more unlikely to regress back to his pre-2023 form. Another season similar to 2024 seems like the most likely outcome for him in 2025.

With Mosley not being retained this off-season, the Jets needed to replenish depth at the linebacker position and attempted to do so by signing Jamin Davis. A 2021 1st round pick, Davis had some decent seasons in Washington early in his career, with PFF grades of 62.9 and 67.6 respectively on snap counts of 833 and 742 respectively in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but he fell to a 51.1 PFF grade across just 107 snaps in 2024, a season he began with Washington and ended with Minnesota, after Washington cut him mid-season. 

Only going into his age 27 season, Davis is not a bad depth option, but the Jets will obviously be hoping he doesn’t have to see significant action in 2025. Aside from Davis, their other depth options are 2023 6th round pick Zaire Barnes, who hasn’t played a defensive snap in two seasons in the league, and 5th round rookie Francisco Mauigoa. Williams and Sherwood are a solid starting duo and Davis isn’t bad depth, but this position group is unlikely to be as good as they were in 2023, when they were one of the best in the NFL.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback Sauce Gardner also had a disappointing season in 2024, falling from PFF grades of 87.9 and 88.6 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023 respectively to a 70.2 PFF grade in 2024. The 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Gardner has obvious bounce back potential in 2025, still only in his age 25 season, but there is a chance he never quite is the same as he was in 2022 and 2023, without his old head coach Robert Saleh.

While Gardner should be better this season, this cornerback group probably won’t be because they lost their other outside cornerback, DJ Reed, in free agency and he stepped up while Gardner was struggling by his standards to lead all Jets cornerbacks with a 70.7 PFF grade. In his place, the Jets signed veteran Brandon Stephens and used a third round pick on Azareye’h Thomas. Stephens will probably get the first crack at the starting job, but he’s an underwhelming option. He had a 69.2 PFF grade across 1,078 snaps in 2023, but the 2021 3rd round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in his other three seasons in the league, including a 55.8 PFF grade in 2024.

Slot cornerback Michael Carter also had a down year in 2024. After receiving PFF grades of 73.5 and 80.4 across snap counts of 732 and 671 respectively in 2022 and 2023, Carter fell to a 50.7 PFF grade last season and only played 285 snaps in 13 games because he ceded snaps down the stretch to Isaiah Oliver. Carter is still only in his age 26 season, so he could bounce back in 2025, but he could also be another player who won’t be the same without Robert Saleh. He also isn’t guaranteed to get his starting job back, as Oliver remains on the roster as competition. 

Oliver, who also played some safety last season, finished the 2024 season with a 65.1 PFF grade across 576 snaps. That was his fourth season straight above 60 on PFF, but he has only averaged 397 snaps per season over that stretch and he has never had a season in seven seasons in the league in which he had a PFF grade higher than 60 and a snap count higher than 600 in the same season. He might be best as a versatile reserve, rather than a starting slot cornerback, but he could still beat out Carter if Carter can’t bounce back.

Including Oliver, the Jets had five players make starts at safety last season. Aside from Oliver, who is likely to primarily be a cornerback this season, only one other safety, Tony Adams, remains as Ashtyn Davis (71.1 PFF grade across 260 snaps), Jalen Mills (63.4 PFF grade across 457 snaps), and Chuck Clark (50.8 PFF grade across 709 snaps) were not retained this off-season. Adams, who had a 66.4 PFF grade across 764 snaps last season, after a 68.0 PFF grade across 879 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2023, is likely locked into one of the starting safety jobs in 2025.

At the other safety spot, the Jets will start free agent addition Andre Cisco. Cisco had a down year in 2024, finishing with a 58.8 PFF grade across 979 snaps, but he had PFF grades of 67.9, 67.1, and 68.9 across snap counts of 247, 992, and 848 over the first three seasons of his career prior to last season and the 2021 3rd round pick is still only going into his age 25 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential. He and Adams will likely be a decent, but unspectacular safety duo.

Aside from the hybrid Oliver, the Jets depth options at safety are limited. The Jets used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Malachi Moore, but he would almost definitely struggle if forced into a starting role as a rookie by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Jaylin Simpson, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2024, but didn’t play a snap as a rookie and also would likely struggle if forced into a starting role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Jets are likely to get a bounce back season from #1 cornerback Sauce Gardner, but they lost DJ Reed this off-season and, aside from Gardner, their secondary is underwhelming overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Jets cycled through five different kickers who attempted kicks for them in 2024. Only one of those kickers remains on the roster, Anders Carlson, and he is likely the favorite for the job, with his top competition being undrafted rookie Caden Davis. Carlson was a 6th round pick by the Packers in 2023, but only lasted one season there because he was the second worst kicker in the league statistically, costing the Packers 11.92 points below average. Last season, Carlson played for both the 49ers and Jets and was better, only 0.63 points below average, and he could continue getting better going forward, but he is still an underwhelming primary option.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jets are starting a rebuild, after unsuccessfully going all in during the brief Aaron Rodgers era. The result is a young roster with some very underwhelming position groups and noticeable needs. The Jets might not quite be one of the worst teams in the league this season and they have a weak schedule, but they seem very unlikely to contend for a playoff spot.

Update: The Jets upgraded their kicker position in a big way with the addition of Nick Folk, but the loss of Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season is a big blow to this team’s offense.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC East

Washington Commanders 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Quarterback

The Commanders were the NFL’s surprise team last season, going all the way from a 4-13 season in 2023 to a 12-5 season in 2024, as well as an NFC Championship appearance. The biggest reason for their improvement was quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was selected #2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and went on to have arguably the best rookie season ever by a quarterback, completing 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.43 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on 148 carries (6.02 YPC). Going into this off-season the Commanders had a lot of cap space to spend to fill out the rest of their roster, with their quarterback on a cheap rookie deal that is the best value of any active contract in the NFL right now.

Given how well their season went last season and that they spent money to get better this off-season, many are expecting the Commanders to be even better this season, but there are reasons why that might not happen. For one, the Commanders were not as good as their record in the regular season last year, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31 respectively, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Even in the Commanders’ two playoff wins, they lost the first down rate and yards per play battle both times. Including their blowout loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship game, the Commanders were actually -1.71 in yards per play differential and -10.07% in first down rate differential in the post-season.

The Commanders also had one of the weakest schedules in the league last season, while their schedule this season is expected to be one of the toughest in the league. On top of that, for all of the money the Commanders spent this off-season, it’s unclear how much better they actually are. They also might not get quite as good of a season out of Jayden Daniels, as quarterbacks who have a great rookie season don’t always repeat that the following season, even if they ultimately end up being a great quarterback long-term. 

Of the other four rookie quarterbacks who posted a 100+ quarterback rating, only one did that again the next season and, on average, those four quarterbacks saw their QB rating fall by 12.8 points the following season. We most recently saw this with CJ Stroud, who had a phenomenal rookie year and then saw his QB rating fall by 13.8 points in his second season in the league. If we expand out to the eleven quarterbacks with a 90+ quarterback rating as a rookie, the results are a little better, but more than half of them saw their quarterback rating fall in their second season, with the average QB rating of the bunch being 4.7 points lower in their second season than their first season and only two of eleven quarterbacks exceeding a 100 QB rating. Daniels should still be very good in 2025, but he might not be quite as good.

Daniels is actually backed up by one of those other eleven quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota, whose career got off to a good start with backup 90+ QB ratings in his first two seasons in the league, but he never panned out as a long-term starter and has been a backup for four of the past five seasons. In total, Mariota has completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.49 YPA, 97 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, while rushing for 5.75 YPC and 18 touchdowns on 375 carries in 74 career starts in 10 seasons in the league. Now in his age 32 season, Mariota is who he is at this stage of his career, but, as far as backups go, he is one of the better ones in the league. He stepped in well last season when needed, completing 34 of 44 for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns, and could do the same again in 2025 for a short period of time. This is one of the best quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

One of the Commanders’ biggest additions this off-season was 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The Commanders only gave up a 5th round pick for him, but they took on his full 17.5 million dollar salary for 2025. The Commanders’ second leading wide receiver had just 506 receiving yards last season and Deebo Samuel has a career 2.16 yards per route run average, so the Commanders had a need and Samuel has the upside. However, Samuel saw that yards per route run average fall to a career low 1.60 in 2024, which is actually less than the 1.69 yards per route run that de facto #2 receiver Olamide Zaccheus averaged last season, albeit in a part-time role.

It’s possible Samuel could bounce back in 2025, still only in his age 29 season, but he’s picked up a lot of injuries in his career, missing time in all six seasons in the league, while missing 19 games total over that stretch, so it’s possible he is starting to decline faster than most receivers. There is a good chance he is still a boost to this offense, but he might not be quite as good as expected and they may miss the departed Olamide Zaccheus more than expected.

Terry McLaurin remains as the #1 receiver. He finished with a 82/1096/13 slash line and 1.98 yards per route run last season, his fifth straight 1000+ season and his sixth season over 900 in as many seasons in the league. He’s never been an elite wide receiver, maxing out with 1,191 receiving yards in 2022, but he has a solid 1.87 yards per route run average in his career. Unfortunately, he is now going into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he started declining, but he will probably remain an above average wide receiver even if he isn’t quite as good as he usually is.

Noah Brown will likely be the #3 receiver. He only had a 35/453/1 slash line last season, but he was limited to 11 games due to injury and had an impressive 1.63 yards per route run average. Brown has never exceeded 600 receiving yards in a season in his career, but he has averaged 1.47 yards per route run over the past seven seasons, including 1.94 yards per route run in 2023, so he has been a pretty efficient pass catcher even if he’s never had the playing time or target share to put up big overall numbers. His numbers may be limited again as the #3 receiver, but he’s not a bad #3 option.

For depth options, the Commanders have 2024 3rd round pick Luke McCaffrey, who struggled with a 0.68 yards per route run average as a rookie, but could take a step forward in 2025. The Commanders also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Jaylin Lane, though it’s unlikely he is NFL ready enough to contribute in a positive way in his first season in the league. The Commanders also brought Michael Gallup out of retirement and, while he is still only in his age 29 season and has a decent 1.38 yards per route run average in his career, that fell to 1.04 in his final two seasons prior to being out of the league in 2024 and it’s hard to imagine him being significantly better after a year off. These aren’t bad depth options, but the Commanders will obviously be hoping they don’t have significant injuries to one or multiple of their top-3 wide receivers.

The Commanders also got a decent year out of tight end Zach Ertz, who turned back the clock to finish with a 66/654/7 slash line and 1.30 yards per route run, both his best since 2021, as he averaged 297 yards per season and 1.06 yards per route run across 2022-2023. Ertz is now heading into his age 35 season and could easily go back to struggling in 2025, though there is at least a chance that doesn’t happen and he has another decent season, despite his age.

If Ertz declines, perhaps the Commanders will get more out of Ben Sinnott, a 2024 2nd round pick who was overmatched with a 0.26 yards per route run average as a rookie, but who could take at least somewhat of a step forward in his second season in the league, even if he still is underwhelming. The Commanders also have John Bates, a blocking specialist who has averaged 0.88 yards per route run in his career, but is at least useful as a blocker. This receiving corps replaces Olamide Zaccheus with Deebo Samuel, but that isn’t as much of an upgrade as it seems and both Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz are on the wrong side of 30 and could be worse in 2025 than they were in 2024 as a result. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Another big addition the Commanders made this off-season was left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who they acquired in a trade with the Texans. Tunsil cost the Commanders a package of picks that included a 3rd rounder this year and a 2nd rounder next year and they will take on the remaining 42.7 million dollars he is owed for the next two seasons. Tunsil has been a consistently above average left tackle in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in six healthy straight seasons, maxing out with a 80.0 PFF grade in 2022. Durability has been a concern for him though, as he’s missed time in seven of nine seasons in the league, with 23 games missed total. He’s also heading into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season.

Even with the age and injury concerns though, Tunsil should still be an upgrade at left tackle for the Commanders, after Brandon Coleman was their primary starter there last season, receiving a 63.9 PFF grade across 787 snaps. Coleman was only a 3rd round rookie and could get better going forward, but if he is going to be a primary starter somewhere this season it is going to be at right tackle, rather than left. Even starting at right tackle might not be in the cards for Coleman, as the Commanders still have incumbent right tackle Andrew Wylie and additionally used their first round pick on an offensive tackle in Josh Conerly.

Coleman’s best path to a starting job would be if Conerly were to move to guard as a rookie. At guard, he would compete with incumbent Nick Allegretti on the left side. Allegretti wasn’t bad last season with a 61.7 PFF grade, but there is definitely room to upgrade. A 2019 7th round pick, Allegretti has only made 30 starts in six seasons in the league and probably doesn’t have the upside to be any better than he was last season. Wylie could also be a candidate at guard, but he finished at 59.3 in PFF grade last season, after finishing in the 60s in five of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so the Commanders have better options than him across the offensive line and he is likely to just be a versatile reserve this season.

Right guard Sam Cosmi is locked into a starting role. He was arguably their best offensive lineman last season with a 68.8 PFF grade and that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick started his career with PFF grades of 74.9, 71.6, and 80.6, before his career worst 2024 season. Cosmi is still only going into his age 26 season, so he would have bounce back potential under normal circumstances, but he tore his ACL in the second round of the playoffs of last season and, as a result, could miss the start of the season and/or not be at his best when he returns.

Center Tyler Biadasz is also locked into his job. A 2020 4th round pick, Biadasz has made 64 starts over the past four seasons and has consistently received decent grades from PFF, finishing at 64.8, 61.7, 68.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. He will likely be backed up by free agent addition Nate Herbig, who missed all of last season with injury, but who had previously received PFF grades of 71.2, 68.7, 58.0, and 67.6 from 2020-2023, when he made 30 starts as a spot starter. He’s primarily been a guard in his career, but can also play center. With Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly being added, this is a much improved offensive line and it is a deep offensive line, with two players who started last season now in reserve roles, along with free agent addition Nate Herbig, who is also an above average reserve.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Things stay the same for the Commanders in the backfield this season. Brian Robinson will remain their lead back, after leading the team in carries in each of his first three seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2022. He’s an unspectacular lead back, but he’s not a bad option either, rushing for 2,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 570 carries (4.09 YPC) in his career, with 2.89 yards per carry after contact, 17.2% missed tackle rate, and a 49.8% carry success rate. Last season was mostly in line with those career numbers, as he had 799 yards and 8 touchdowns on 187 carries (4.27 YPC) in his career, with 3.07 yards per carry after contact, 15.5% missed tackle rate, and a 48.7% carry success rate. I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Robinson is a solid pass catcher too, with a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he only had a 20/159/0 slash line last season and won’t play a big passing game role again this season because the Commanders have a great passing down specialist behind him on the depth chart in Austin Ekeler, who has been one of the best receiving backs of his era, averaging 1.83 yards per route run in his career and 1.69 yards per route run last season. Ekeler was also a great lead back in his prime, peaking with a combined 410 carries for 1,826 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2021-2022, but he’s now going into his age 30 season, so his days of being a lead back are behind him at this point. He still averaged 4.77 yards per carry last season in a change of pace role though. He could decline further in 2025, given his age, but having a reduced role should help him age better long-term. 

The Commanders also have good depth at the running back position. Chris Rodriguez, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged 4.94 YPC on 35 carries last season and has a 4.88 YPC average on 86 carries in two seasons in the league, while Jeremy McNichols, a veteran journeyman also had an impressive 4.75 YPC average on 55 carries last season, though his career average is only 4.31, he has just 145 carries in eight seasons in the league, primarily playing special teams, and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so Rodriguez is definitely the better of the two options going forward. The Commanders also used a 7th round pick on Jacory Croskey-Merritt to give themselves additional depth, though he could have a hard time cracking a deep running back group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Commanders’ offense should at least be somewhat better this season, due to the additions of Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil, their defense was the bigger problem last season, ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed and it’s unlikely they are significantly better this season. They did make a big move to sign Javon Kinlaw in free agency, giving him a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal, but that is likely a big overpay.

Kinlaw was a first round pick by the 49ers in 2020 and has broken out as a solid interior pass rusher over the past two seasons, combining for 8 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate, while playing all 34 games, after struggling through injuries for the first three seasons of his career (26 total games missed) but he has continued to struggle against the run in those two seasons, finishing with run defense grades of 31.3 and 50.8 respectively on PFF. As a result, he has finished below 60 on PFF in both seasons at 49.6 and 53.4, making it five straight seasons below 60 to begin his career. Now in his age 28 season, Kinlaw likely is who he is at this stage of his career. He will likely remain an above average pass rusher in 2025, but his run defense will probably prevent him from being worth what the Commanders paid him.

Kinlaw will rotate heavily with Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton, who led this position group with 741 snaps and 515 snaps played respectively last season. Both struggled, with PFF grades of 53.7 and 51.6 respectively, but both could be better in 2025, as Payne finished with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season and is still only in his age 28 season, while Newton is a 2024 2nd round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

The Commanders also added Eddie Goldman to compete for a deep reserve role. Goldman was a consistently above average starter in his prime with the Bears, finishing above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league from 2015-2019, including four seasons above 70, and a career best 87.3 PFF grade in 2018, but he sat out the 2020 season, struggled mightily upon his return in 2021, with a 39.8 PFF grade across 336 snaps, then sat out another two seasons before struggling again in 2024, when he had a 49.3 PFF grade across 330 snaps. 

Now in his age 31 season, Goldman’s best days are long behind him and he is likely to continue struggling in 2025, even in a deep reserve role. His primary competition for that role is likely Sheldon Day, who had a 58.2 PFF grade across 272 snaps last season and has finished with PFF grades in the 50s or 60s in all nine seasons in the league, on an average of 202 snaps per season. He could have a similar season again in 2025 as a deep reserve, though it’s worth noting he is now in his age 31 season and could decline to the point where he is a significant liability. This is an underwhelming overall position group, though they could be better than last season by default if Daron Payne bounces back and Jer’Zhan Newton takes a step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Commanders’ edge defender group, on the other hand, is likely to be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024. Dante Fowler, their team leader in sacks with 10.5, wasn’t retained this off-season and, though he struggled against the run and finished with just a 62.1 PFF grade across 563 snaps overall, he will still be missed, especially since his replacements are Deatrich Wise and Jacob Martin. Wise was a solid player in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2019-2022, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 54.3 and 59.7 over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he is likely to continue struggling. 

Jacob Martin, meanwhile, is a career journeyman who has been decent in his career, but who has only averaged 314 snaps played per season and now is also on the wrong side of 30, going into his age 30 season. Martin figures to be a reserve, while Wise has a good chance to be a de facto starter, given the Commanders’ other options. Dorance Armstrong was the Commanders’ best overall edge defender last season, finishing with a 68.9 PFF grade across 635 snaps, while totaling 5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, after finishing with a 70.1 PFF grade across 446 snaps, while totaling 7.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 28 season and coming off of four straight seasons above 60 on PFF, Armstrong should continue being a solid starter in 2025, but he’s pretty underwhelming as far as top edge defenders go.

The Commanders’ other option is Clelin Ferrell, but he is an underwhelming option. Ferrell was the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but has not nearly lived up to the billing, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of six seasons, including a 58.5 PFF grade across 369 snaps last season, while maxing out at a 76.1 PFF grade in 2020 and averaging just 450 snaps per season. He’s a decent rotational player at his best, but nothing more. He rounds out a very underwhelming edge defender rotation.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Commanders’ linebackers were the strength of their defense last season, led by every down linebacker Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Wagner was one of the best linebackers in the entire league, finishing 2nd among linebackers on PFF with a 89.9 PFF grade across 1,071 snaps. That was nothing new for Wagner, who now has eight seasons above 80 in thirteen seasons in the league, with eleven seasons above 70 and no seasons below 69 in what is likely to be a Hall of Fame career when all is said and done. The problem is Wagner is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined in a significant way this season, which would hurt this defense significantly.

Fortunately, Frankie Luvu could be better in 2025 than 2024. He wasn’t bad last season, with a 67.5 PFF grade across 1,058 snaps, but that was a drop off from his first two seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023, when he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 80.0 respectively across snap counts of 941 and 989 respectively. Still on the right side of 30 in his age 29 season, Luvu has obvious bounce back potential in 2025, which would be a boost for this defense, even if he doesn’t quite match his career best 2023 campaign.

Depth is a big issue for the Commanders at linebacker though. Their options include Nick Bellore, a career special teamer who has played just 866 total defensive snaps in 14 seasons in the league, and who now enters his age 36 season, Jordan Magee, a 2024 5th round pick who only played 16 snaps as a rookie, Dominique Hampton, also a 2024 5th round pick, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 6th round rookie Kain Medrano. The Commanders will have to hope neither of their starters misses significant time with injury, given their options behind them on the depth chart, which hurts their overall grade at this position at least somewhat.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Commanders should get better play out of their cornerbacks this season. Last season, their top-3 cornerbacks were Mike Sainristil (978 snaps), Benjamin St-Juste (836 snaps), and 

Noah Igbinoghene (819 snaps) and they finished with PFF grades of 66.1, 47.4, and 49.3 respectively. This season, they should get more out of Marshon Lattimore, who was acquired at the trade deadline last year, but only played two regular season games due to injury, and they added veteran Jonathan Jones in free agency.

Lattimore and Jones should be upgrades over St-Juste and Igbinoghene, but perhaps largely by default. Lattimore comes with upside, finishing above 70 on PFF in four of eight seasons in the league, including a 70.0 PFF grade last season, but he’s been inconsistent in his career and he’s been very injury prone in recent years, missing 25 games over the past three seasons combined. Lattimore is still relatively young in his age 29 season and he has a high upside, but he comes with injury and consistency concerns. 

Jones, meanwhile, has also had some success in his career, finishing above 70 on PFF three times in nine seasons in the league, but he’s also been injury prone of late, missing 15 games in the past four seasons, and he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of a 2024 season in which he finished with just a 60.7 PFF grade across 712 snaps, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Sainristil remains as a starter. Not only was he their only capable cornerback last season, but he was only a second round rookie and could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Overall, this looks like a solid trio of cornerbacks, especially when compared to last season, but at least two of them have significant injury histories and one is on the wrong side of 30. 

Depth could prove to be important, so the Commanders used a second round pick on Trey Amos. Amos probably won’t begin the season as a starter, but could easily find himself with a significant role at some point, either due to injury ahead of him on the depth chart or due to Jones struggling. Igbinoghene also remains as a reserve option, but he should remain buried on the depth chart if possible. He was a first round pick by the Dolphins in 2020, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league and only got on the field for a total of 627 snaps in his first four seasons in the league before being forced into a significant role in a weak position group last season.

Things are not as good at safety, probably even worse than they were a year ago. Jeremy Chinn was a solid starter with a 69.0 PFF grade across 1,020 snaps, but he wasn’t brought back this off-season. Instead, the Commanders replaced him with Will Harris, whose 61.5 PFF grade last season was simultaneously significantly worse than Chinn, but also the second best season-long grade of his 6-year career. Now in his age 30 season, he’s likely to regress and be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary.

Quan Martin remains as the other starter, but he was mediocre with a 59.2 PFF grade across 942 snaps last season. He is a 2023 2nd round pick and he did flash potential as a rookie with a 65.4 PFF grade across 365 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He still may have further untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to develop into a consistently solid starter. He too could be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary this season. 

The Commanders do have some reserve options at safety, but it’s unclear if any of them would be better than the starters. Percy Butler was the primary reserve last season with 399 snaps, but he finished with a 43.9 PFF grade. He did have a 62.7 PFF grade across 835 snaps (13 starts) in 2023, but the 2022 4th round pick has finished below 50 in his other two seasons in the league. Darrick Forest has finished with PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round in 2021, including a snap count of 849 in 2022, but that snap count fell to 328 in 2023 and just 74 in 2024. Jeremy Reeves has had his moments, but ultimately has played just 725 snaps in seven seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2018. The Commanders’ cornerback group should be significantly better this season, even if largely by default, but their safety room looks likely to be even worse, with both projected starters likely to be liabilities.

Grade: B-

Kicker

Austin Seibert was the Commanders kicker to start last season and he was having a solid year with 2.16 points above average through nine games, but he got hurt and missed the rest of the season. The Commanders then cycled through Greg Joseph (-2.92 points below average) and Cade York (-7.43 points below average) before finding Zane Gonzalez, who was decent down the stretch and through their playoff run, accumulating 0.77 points above average. 

This season, the Commanders brought none of those kickers back, opting for veteran free agent addition Matt Gay. Gay had a great 3-year stretch from 2020-2022 where he accumulated 20.65 points above average, but he fell to 3.67 points below average in 2023 and 0.68 points below average in 2024 and now heads into his age 31 season. He’s not totally over the hill for a kicker and could bounce back somewhat in 2025, but, now two years removed from his last above average season, it seems pretty unlikely he will find his old form again in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Commanders won 12 games and made the NFC Championship game last season, but they are starting from a lower base point than that suggests, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss records. That was despite a relatively easy schedule, a schedule that gets a lot harder in 2024. Even in the post-season, the Commanders lost the first down rate and yards per play battle in all three games, finishing the post-season with a -1.71 yards per play differential and a -10.07% first down rate differential.

The Commanders’ offense should be even better this season unless Jayden Daniels has a significant sophomore slump, as the Commanders added wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Laremy Tunsil this off-season to a unit that ranked 10th in yards per play and 8th first down rate. However, their defense looks likely to remain one of the worst in the league, after ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed. The Commanders should still be in the mix for a playoff spot and they have an easier schedule than the Eagles, who are unlikely to be as good as they were a year ago, but I wouldn’t consider the Commanders an elite team.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East

Indianapolis Colts 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterbacks

The Colts went 8-9 in 2024 but could have been a lot better than that if they had competent quarterback play, as they had an above average roster overall but had the second worst QB rating in the league at 75.8. The other three teams who ranked in the bottom-4 in team QB rating finished with the three worst records in the league, but the Colts managed to be in contention for a playoff spot late into the season because of the strength of the rest of this roster. It’s not a stretch to say that the Colts entered this off-season a quarterback away from being at least a playoff team in the AFC.

The Colts could have gone after Sam Darnold, by far the top available quarterback in free agency this off-season, but doing so would have meant giving up on Anthony Richardson, who they selected 4th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft just two years ago. There is definitely an argument to be made for the Colts doing that, as Richardson was always a very risky pick that high in the draft and has shown nothing in two years in the league to suggest he was worth that pick. 

Richardson missed most of his rookie season with injury and was not particularly good when on the field in 4 starts. He was impressive on the ground with 5.44 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries, but he completed just 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while finishing the season with a 52.2 PFF grade. In 2024, he was arguably worse as a passer, completing 47.7% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while averaging 5.80 YPC and rushing for 6 touchdowns on 86 carries in 11 starts, missing more time due to injury and then briefly getting benched upon his return. Richardson still has upside, but the rest of the Colts’ roster is ready to contend right now and it seems unlikely that Richardson is ready to quarterback a contending team in 2025.

The Colts did add a quarterback this off-season, but it was ex-Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who is a very underwhelming alternative. The Colts did still give him 14 million on a one-year deal, most of which is guaranteed, so there is a good chance he starts games for them this season unless Richardson improves significantly, but the addition of Jones is probably more about trying to give Richardson a wake-up call and some competition rather than trying to replace him. 

In six seasons in the league, Jones has made 69 starts, but has just a 84.3 QB rating, worst among quarterbacks with at least 1,200 pass attempts over that time period. He is a solid runner, averaging 5.46 YPC with 15 touchdowns on 399 carries in his career, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Richardson, but he also might not be an upgrade over Joe Flacco, who isn’t mobile, but had a 90.5 QB rating across 248 pass attempts last season. It’s unlikely the Colts will even get average quarterback play out of either of their quarterback options, so this team is unlikely to make the playoffs, even with a roster that looks likely to be above average overall.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

If there is one area the Colts could be worse this season than last season, it is their offensive line, which lost a pair of week one starters from last season in right guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly. Fries and Kelly had PFF grades of 86.9 and 67.0 respectively last season, but they were limited to 5 starts and 10 starts respectively by injuries and the Colts had replacements that played pretty well in their absence, so those losses might not be as big of a deal as they seem.

Kelly will be replaced by Tanor Bortolini, a 2024 4th round pick who played 351 snaps as a rookie, mostly at center, where he started 5 games. He had a decent 65.1 PFF grade and, while he is a projection to a season-long role, he looks like he could be at least a capable starter long-term. Fries, meanwhile, will be replaced by Matt Goncalves, a 2024 3rd round pick who mostly saw action at tackle last season, but who had a solid 65.9 PFF grade across 566 snaps. He’s changing positions and, like Bortolini, he is a projection to a season-long role, but he also could at least be a capable starter.

The Colts are also hoping to get healthier years out of tackles Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann, who were limited to 12 games and 14 games respectively last season. Smith also fell to a career worst 65.7 PFF grade, after finishing above 70 in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, including three seasons over 80, with his most recent being a career best 83.3 in 2023. Smith is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, so he has a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat and, while durability has been a concern for him in recent years, as he’s missed at least five games in three of the past four seasons, it’s definitely possible he plays more games than he did last year as well.

Raimann is coming off of a career best year, with a 85.1 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick has been above average since his rookie year and has gotten better in every season in the league, with PFF grades of 73.3 and 82.7 in his first two seasons in the league. Raimann was an old rookie and is already in his age 28 season, but he should remain a high level starter in 2025, even if he might not repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

Left guard Quenton Nelson also played at a high level in 2024, finishing with a 81.3 PFF grade, while making all 17 starts. It wasn’t anything new for Nelson, as he has finished above 80 on PFF in three of seven seasons in the league, but he also has been inconsistent in his career, especially in recent years, with PFF grades of 69.1, 68.4, and 70.8 in 2021, 2022, and 2023, prior to last season’s dominant campaign. Nelson is still in his prime in his age 29 season, but his history of inconsistency means he could regress significantly from a year ago, though that’s not a guarantee.

The big concern on this offensive line is depth. The Colts had good depth a year ago, with Bortolini and Goncalves ready to slide into starting roles when called upon, but they will begin the season in the starting lineup this season and, without them as reserves, their reserve options are now questionable. Dalton Tucker made seven starts at right guard last season when Will Fries was out, but he struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade. He’s a 2024 undrafted free agent who would likely continue to struggle in 2025 if forced back into a starting role, but he’s probably their top reserve option at guard.

Danny Pinter, a 2020 5th round pick, is their top reserve at center and he’s been decent when called upon in five seasons in the league since going in the 5th round in 2020, but he’s only made nine starts in those five seasons, so he’s pretty unproven. At tackle, their top reserve options are likely Blake Freeland, who had a 44.2 PFF grade across 701 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2023, before playing just 23 mediocre snaps last season, and 4th round rookie Jalen Travis. It’s highly unlikely all five of the Colts’ offensive line starters stay healthy all season in 2025, so at some point their depth will be tested, which is a big concern. This is an above average starting five, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade upfront.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ passing game struggled last season due to their quarterback play, but they got great play from their wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been their #1 receiver for four seasons, leading the team in targets in all of those seasons, while averaging a 91/992/4 slash line per season and 1.77 yards per route run. Last year was actually a down year for him, as he had a 69/808/3 slash line and 1.68 yards per route run. There were a few reasons for that. Obviously, poor quarterback play had something to do with it. Pittman also played most of the season through a back injury that only cost him one game but that likely limited his effectiveness. 

On top of that, Pittman had a smaller target share than he was used to (111 targets, as opposed to 142 on average in his previous three seasons), as a result of other wide receivers emerging around him. That looks likely to continue being the case in 2025. Josh Downs, a 2023 2nd round pick, seems like he has emerged as the long-term #1 wide receiver. He had fewer targets than Pittman in 2024 (107), but only because he missed three games with injury. He was the more efficient of the two receivers, averaging a team leading 2.20 yards per route run, which led to a 72/803/5 slash line, after a 1.60 yards per route run average and a 68/771/2 slash line as a rookie. Now going into his third season in the league and his age 24 season, Downs looks likely to at least be an above average wide receiver for years to come and has the upside to get even better.

Another recent second round pick, Alec Pierce, had a mini breakout season in 2024, with a 1.82 yards per route run average, after averaging 1.02 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league combined. Pierce did that despite only getting 69 targets, which he took for a 37/824/7 slash line. Pierce is a bit of a one-dimensional deep threat, but he will continue having a role in this offense going forward, especially if the gunslinging Anthony Richardson winds up as the quarterback. The Colts also have 2024 2nd round pick Adonai Mitchell waiting in the wings as the #4 receiver. He had a decent rookie season, with 1.51 yards per route run and he still has further upside, so he is a great option as far as #4 receivers go.

The big weakness of this receiving corps last season was the tight end position, as no tight end had more than 31 targets, 14 catches, 182 yards, or 1.00 yards per route run. The Colts upgraded the tight end position in a big way though, using the 14th overall pick on Tyler Warren. Warren was one of the top prospects in the draft overall, but fell to the Colts because tight ends have a relatively low position value and because this draft class had another elite tight end prospect in Colston Loveland. He should be a big boost for this receiving corps right away.

Kylen Granson was the Colts’ de facto #1 receiving tight end last season with a 14/182/0 slash line and he wasn’t retained this off-season, but he won’t be needed with Warren being added and the Colts do still have Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree, who, while they aren’t good receivers, are good blockers and will still be useful in that role behind Warren. Alie-Cox has an average of 1.24 yards per route run for his career, but it has fallen to 0.86 over the past three seasons leading to PFF grades of 48.2, 60.8, 64.5 and now he is heading into his age 32 season. 

Meanwhile, Ogletree, a 6th round pick in 2022, has only averaged 1.05 yards per route run in his career, but has PFF grades of 66.2 and 69.1 over the past two seasons due primarily to his run blocking. At this stage of his career, he is probably the better option. Both will probably see roles, but Ogletree makes more sense as the #2 behind Warren. The addition of Warren as a big upgrade at the primary receiving tight end position in a receiving corps that already had a lot of talent at the wide receiver position makes this an impressive receiving corps overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Colts finished last season 8th in yards per carry, 7th in carries, and 8th in rushing yards last season. A lot of that had to do with Anthony Richardson, who not only had a 5.80 YPC on 86 carries, but additionally his presence in the backfield made life much easier for running backs because opposing defenses had to worry about the quarterback taking off and running himself. In fact, in 10 games in which Richardson played the majority of the team’s quarterback snaps, the Colts averaged 4.96 YPC across 308 carries per game, as opposed to 4.28 YPC across 188 carries per game in their other 7 games. 

Lead back Jonathan Taylor averaged 4.72 YPC on 303 carries, ranking 4th in the league with 1,431 rushing yards as a result. For Taylor, it was his third 1000+ yard season in five seasons in the league, but his first since he rushed for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) as a rookie in 2020 and 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC) in his second season in the league in 2021. In his third and fourth seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, he combined for just 1,602 yards and 11 touchdowns on 361 carries (4.44 YPC), while missing 13 total games due to injury. 

Taylor seemed to bounce back in 2024, but he benefited significantly from playing alongside Richardson in the backfield, and with a great offensive line in front of him (4th in PFF run blocking grade). His 2.68 yards per carry after contact was the worst of his career, after averaging 3.33 yards per carry after contact across his first four seasons in the league combined, while his 11.9% missed tackle rate was also a career low, after an average of 19.2% in his first four seasons in the league combined. Taylor also still missed another three games with injury, so he didn’t exactly shed his injury prone label last season. He still has a good chance to be a highly productive lead back in this offense, but he’s not as good as his overall numbers suggested last season, and he’ll probably miss more time due to injury this season.

Depth was an issue for the Colts at running back last season, as top reserve Trey Sermon only averaged 2.84 yards per carry on 56 carries. He wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by Khalil Herbert, who will probably be an upgrade, but maybe by default. Herbert averaged 4.87 yards per carry, including 3.20 yards per carry after contact, in his first three seasons in the league with the Bears, who selected him in the 6th round in 2021, but he fell out of the Bears running back rotation last season and was traded to the Bengals mid-season, where he still had trouble getting on the field, finishing last season with just 36 carries and just a 3.61 yards per carry average. He has bounce back potential in 2025 and is unlikely to have to play a big role other than in games when Taylor is absent, so he’s not a bad fit for his role.

The Colts also have Tyler Goodson as their third string running back for the second straight year. The 2022 undrafted free agent has averaged 5.33 yards per carry on 45 carries in his career. He’s unlikely to have a big role even if Jonathan Taylor misses significant time with injury. Taylor will likely remain the primary back on passing downs as well, but he only has a career 0.91 yards per route run average, including 0.50 last season, when he finished the season with just a 18/136/1 slash line. Herbert, however, has an even worse 0.68 yards per route run in his career, so he’s not a better option, while Goodson has only averaged 0.91 yards per route run in limited action. The Colts’ backfield isn’t as good as their production looked last season, but this isn’t a bad backfield either and they have a good chance to be highly productive again.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Colts’ defense was the strength of this team last season, as they ranked 20th in yards per play allowed and 8th in first down rate allowed. They made some changes this off-season, but they weren’t necessarily bad ones and all of their best players from a year ago remain, as all seven players who played more than 500 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 70 remain on the team. The strength of this defense was the interior defender position, where DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart ranked first and second on the team in PFF grade among players with more than 500 snaps, finishing at 81.9 and 76.0 respectively on snap counts of 579 and 690. 

Both are accomplished players, as DeForest Buckner has finished above 70 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including five seasons over 80, while Stewart has finished above 60 in each of the past six seasons, including three seasons over 70 in the past four seasons. The problem is they are going into their age 31 and age 32 seasons and could start to decline this season. They could remain at least solid starters even if they do decline, particularly Buckner, who is one year younger and starting from a higher base point, but if both decline noticeably, it will hurt this defense significantly. 

The other problem is the Colts don’t have good depth behind them. This was the case last season as well, when Raekwon Davis (349 snaps), Taven Bryan (340 snaps), and Adetomiwa Adebawore (137 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 37.1, 58.2, and 57.9 respectively as the top reserves. Davis and Bryan are gone, replaced by free agent additions Neville Gallimore and Eric Johnson, as well as 6th round rookie Tim Smith, none of whom are an upgrade. 

Gallimore will probably be their top reserve. He was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but he has averaged just 307 snaps per season in his career, while finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons. Johnson is returning to the Colts, who selected him in the 5th round in 2022 originally, but he has played just 570 snaps in three seasons in the league since, while finishing with PFF grades of 47.4, 30.5, and 54.2 respectively. Adebawore will also likely remain in the mix for a role, despite struggling across a total of just 269 snaps played in two seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in 2023. Even the late round rookie Tim Smith could be in the mix for a reserve role, which says more about the Colts’ depth at this position than it does about Smith. Buckner and Stewart could remain a great starting duo, but their ages are a concern and the Colts’ lack of depth behind them is a concern as well.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the Colts were led by first round rookie Laiatu Latu, who had a 71.5 PFF grade across 618 snaps. Now going into his second season in the league, Latu has the potential to be even better in 2025. He figures to continue starting opposite Kwity Paye, another former first round pick, who has PFF grades of 69.6, 69.6, 74.3, and 66.8 in four seasons in the league across an average of 638 snaps per season. Now going into his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Dayo Odeyingbo was also above average last season with a 66.1 PFF grade across 746 snaps, but he left as a free agent this off-season. However, the Colts do get back Samson Ebukam after he missed all of last season due to injury. Ebukam has finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of his seven healthy seasons in the league, including a career best 84.4 PFF grade across 703 snaps in his most recent season in 2023. It seems unlikely he’ll repeat his career best season two years later, with a major injury in between, and he’s also now going into his age 30 season, but he has a good chance to be an effective rotational player.

The Colts also added JT Tuimoloau in the second round of this year’s draft to give themselves some added depth at the edge defender position and he will compete with veteran Tyquan Lewis, who played 355 snaps last season, for a role. Lewis has finished above 60 on PFF in four of the past five seasons, including a 65.0 PFF grade last season, but he’s only played 336 snaps per season in his career and he now heads into his age 30 season. The Colts don’t have any clear star players at the edge defender position, but they look solid overall at this spot.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Colts also lost starting linebacker EJ Speed this off-season, but he was below average with a 56.4 PFF grade across 1,011 snaps last season and the Colts have a promising replacement for him in Jaylon Carlies, a 2024 5th round pick who flashed a lot of potential with a 70.0 PFF grade across 242 snaps as a rookie. He’s still a projection to a larger role, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Speed and he gives them a higher upside at the position than his predecessor. Carlies will start next to Zaire Franklin, who had a 60.4 PFF grade across 1,157 snaps last season, in line with the 57.0 PFF grade across 1,136 snaps he had in 2022 and the 60.9 PFF grade across 1,090 snaps he had in 2023. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The concern with this group in the absence of Speed is their lack of depth, without any good replacements added for Carlies’ old reserve role. Joe Bachie was added in free agency and Hunter Wohler was added in the draft, but Bachie is a career special teamer who has played 238 snaps on defense in five seasons in the league, while Wohler is just a 7th round rookie. Segun Olubi remains, but he has played just nondescript 136 snaps since going undrafted in 2022. Cameron McGrone also remains, but he has played just 9 snaps since getting drafted in the 5th round in 2021. One of those players would have to play a significant role if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart. This is an underwhelming linebacking corps overall, but that isn’t much different than last season.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Colts had a solid trio at cornerbacks last season with Kenny Moore, Jaylon Jones, and Samuel Womack receiving PFF grades of and 70.8, 67.4, and 71.4 across snap counts of 1,013, 1,146, and 673 respectively. There are reasons why all three might not be quite as good again in 2025 though. For Moore, the issue is his age, as he has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of eight seasons in the league, including five seasons above 70, but now heads into his age 31 season. 

Moore could remain at least a solid starter unless he declines significantly, but he’s likely to be worse in 2025 than 2024. For Womack and Jones, the issue is they are one-year wonders, as Womack is a 2022 5th round pick who had played just 216 snaps in his career prior to last season, while Jones is a 2023 7th round pick who struggled with a 56.8 PFF grade across 788 snaps as a rookie before last season. Both could continue being solid players in 2025, but they could also regress.

Fortunately, the Colts did add Charvarius Ward in free agency on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal. Ward struggled in 2024 with a 56.2 PFF grade across 694 snaps, but he was dealing with serious issues in his personal life that almost definitely affected his play. Prior to 2024, Ward had been one of the best cornerbacks in the league, finishing with PFF grades of 83.2 and 82.6 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Ward has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. He figures to be locked into a starting job outside based on his salary, leaving the other three to compete for roles. The Colts also used a third round pick on Justin Walley, but he would likely need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to see a significant role in year one.

In addition to Chavarius Ward, the Colts also signed Cam Bynum in free agency, replacing free agent departure Justin Blackmon, who had a 69.3 PFF grade across 987 snaps last season. Bynum signed for 4 years, 60 million, but, even though Blackmon remains unsigned as of this writing, going from Bynum to Blackmon was basically a lateral move, as Bynum has PFF grades of 58.2, 73.2, and 63.0 in three seasons as a starter. He’s not a bad starting option, but was likely overpaid.

Bynum will start next to Nick Cross, who remains as the other starter. Cross had a solid 70.3 PFF grade in his first full season as a starter in 2024, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade across 292 snaps in 2023. He’s still only a one-year starter and is relatively unproven as a result, but he is also still only in his age 24 season, so he has the upside to get even better if he can take a step forward in his fourth season in the league.

Rodney Thomas will likely remain the Colts’ top reserve safety. He only played 98 snaps in that role last season because both of their starting safeties stayed healthy, but he could easily end up being called upon more this season. A 7th round pick in 2022, Thomas was a starter earlier in his career, playing snap totals of 720 and 962 in his first two seasons in the league, but he struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade and a 58.2 PFF grade respectively, so he is better off as a reserve. Overall, this looks like an above average secondary.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Colts’ primary kicker last season was Matt Gay, who was slightly below average with 0.68 points below average. Gay started every game except one, when undrafted rookie Spencer Shrader filled in as an injury replacement. Shrader went on to play for the Chiefs and Chargers last season as well and actually made every kick, going 5/5 on field goals and 9/9 on extra points in four games, accumulating 2.11 points above average. This off-season, the Colts opted to bring back Shrader and release Gay. The Colts also added undrafted free agent Maddux Trujillo to compete with Shrader, but Shrader seems likely to be the favorite for the job in 2025. He’s still pretty unproven, but showed a lot of potential last season and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Matt Gay.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Colts once again have an above average roster, but will likely once again be limited by their quarterback play, which looks likely to be among the worst in the league again. If either of their quarterback options, Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, can exceed expectations and be even a capable starter in 2025, this team would likely make the post-season, but the odds are against that happening.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in AFC South

Chicago Bears 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

Two years ago, the Bears got the #1 pick, coming off of a 3-14 season and were faced with a choice. The Bears could have used the #1 pick on a new quarterback, which would have meant trading away Justin Fields, who they had traded a pair of first round picks to select 11th overall just two years prior and who didn’t seem like he had gotten a fair shot with a good roster yet, or they could have traded away the #1 pick for a huge return. The Bears opted for the latter, getting back a package that included a pair of first round picks, a pair of second round picks, and talented wide receiver DJ Moore from the Carolina Panthers, who then used the pick to select Bryce Young.

A year after that trade, going into the 2024 off-season, the Bears seemed like they had obviously made the correct choice. Justin Fields didn’t pan out, leading to the Bears still only going 7-10 in 2023, and Fields was eventually traded to the Steelers for a conditional late round pick, but Bryce Young fared even worse in his first season in Carolina, leading to the Panthers finishing just 2-15, the worst record in the league, which meant that the 2024 first round pick the Panthers gave the Bears in their trade the year before was #1 overall, giving the Bears the opportunity to select Caleb Williams, who looked like one of the best quarterback prospects of the last decade.

Williams also seemed to be stepping into a much better situation than most quarterbacks who are selected #1. The Bears’ record the previous year wasn’t good, but it was better than most teams who select #1 and, armed with multiple high draft picks from the Panthers and a significant amount of cap space due to their cheap, young core, the Bears had been aggressive in both the 2023 and 2024 off-seasons building out the rest of this roster. If Caleb Williams could be as good as advertised, the Bears seemed to have a clear path to contending quickly and for years to come.

Instead, the Bears actually took a step back in 2024, finishing with a 5-12 record. There are numerous reasons for the Bears’ disappointing season, but quarterback Caleb Williams has to be at the top of the list. Williams’ overall numbers don’t look that bad, as he completed 62.5% of his passes for an average of 6.30 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions (87.8 QB rating), while rushing for 6.04 YPC on 81 carries, but Williams also took 68 sacks on a team that had the most sacks allowed in the league. 

Normally, a lot of the blame for all of those sacks would fall on the offensive line, but the Bears’ offensive line actually ranked 9th in pass blocking grade on PFF. The bigger problem was Williams held the ball for too long and showed a lack of pocket presence. Williams had the 6th highest time in the pocket in the NFL at 3.04 seconds, but only ranked 18th in quarterback pressure rate at 35.3, so even though he held the ball for a long time, he wasn’t pressured at a high rate. He ranked 3rd in the NFL in sack rate on pressured snaps at 27.8% and led the NFL with 17 unnecessary sacks taken. Overall, despite decent passing numbers, Williams received just a 67.6 PFF grade, good for 32nd among 44 eligible quarterbacks. Making matters worse, Bryce Young made significant strides in his second season in Carolina, while the other quarterback who would have been in consideration for the #1 pick in 2023, CJ Stroud, led the Texans to their second straight division title and won a playoff game for the second season in a row.

Of course, it’s tough to know how much of Williams’ struggles last season was his fault or the fault of poor coaching. Going into last season, the Bears’ coaching staff seemed like their biggest weakness and it proved to be a big downfall. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired mid-season and replaced with Thomas Brown. A few weeks after that, head coach Matt Eberflus was fired and Brown became interim head coach, in addition to their offensive coordinator and play caller, a massive responsibility for a coach who entered last season as a passing game coordinator with just one year of previous offensive coordinator experience.

Fortunately, the Bears made a big splash this off-season, hiring former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their new head coach. Not only was Johnson the most sought after head coaching candidate of the last couple head coaching cycles, but he is also a very quarterback friendly head coach who has the potential to do great things for Williams’ development. Johnson isn’t guaranteed success, like many great coordinators before him who have failed as first time head coaches, and Williams needs to put in the work to develop as well, but I don’t think Williams could have asked for a better coaching staff situation going into a pivotal second season in the league and there is a great chance that he and this Bears offense take a huge step forward this season, after ranking 32nd in yards per play and 31st in first down rate last season.

Williams will be backed up by either Tyson Bagent, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has been their backup for the past two seasons, or Case Keenum, a journeyman veteran they signed this off-season to compete with Bagent for the backup role. Both look like underwhelming options. Bagent has exceeded expectations by being a backup in his first two years in the league after going undrafted, but he looked like one of the worst backup options in the league when on the field, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions (71.9 QB rating), which is why they brought in Keenum to potentially give them an alternative this off-season.

Keenum has had some great years as a backup and even as a starter in the NFL, making 66 starts in 13 seasons in the league and posting a 84.6 QB rating, but his QB rating is just 57.6 over the past three seasons and now he heads into his age 37 season, so he looks like he’s at the end of the line. If Bagent can hold off Keenum for the backup job, that will say negative more about Keenum than it will positive about Bagent and the same is true if Keenum comes in and takes the job. The Bears will obviously need Williams to stay healthy again all season, given the state of their backup quarterback situation, but if Williams does stay healthy again, he and this offense have enormous potential, given Williams’ talent and the new coaching staff he has.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bears’ offensive line wasn’t really the problem last season, but they did overhaul this group. The results of that overhaul could be a mixed bag, but one move that almost definitely helps this offense is signing center Drew Dalman, one of the best centers in the league, to replace Coleman Shelton, who was decent but unspectacular last season with a 66.4 PFF grade in 17 starts. Dalman has finished with PFF grades of 65.9, 82.3, and 78.8 over the past three seasons and is still very much in his prime, going into his age 27 season. He’s only a decent pass protector, but he is an incredible run blocker who should give the Bears’ ground game a big boost this season.

The Bears also made changes at both guard spots. They didn’t have bad guard play last season, as Teven Jenkins and Matt Pryor had PFF grades of 75.4 and 69.9 in 14 starts and 15 starts respectively as the primary starters, but the Bears didn’t necessarily downgrade the position either. At left guard, Jenkins wasn’t retained as a free agent because he has consistently had durability issues and he was replaced via trade for Joe Thuney who is highly accomplished, finishing above 70 on PFF in eight straight seasons, including a 79.9 PFF grade in 2024, and also highly durable, missing just two starts in nine seasons in the league. The one problem with Thuney is he is now heading into his age 33 season. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and unless he declines significantly this season, he should remain an above average starter.

Pryor, meanwhile, will be replaced by Jonah Jackson, who also came over in a trade, reuniting with his former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Jackson spent his first four seasons in Detroit from 2020-2023, making 57 starts. After struggling as a rookie with a 57.0 PFF grade, he seemed to turn a corner in his second and third seasons in the league with PFF grades of 69.3 and 66.1, before regressing to 59.7 in his contract year. 

Jackson still got a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal from the Rams last off-season, but he lasted two games at guard before getting hurt, then moved to center upon his return, struggled mightily in one start out of position, and then played well back at guard in a meaningless week 18 game, finishing the 2024 season with a 67.5 PFF grade over across just 266 snaps. Now going into 2025, it’s tough to know what to make of Jackson, now two years removed from his last full season as a starter in which he was above average, but he’s still theoretically in his prime in his age 28 season and should have bounce back potential, even if that’s far from a guarantee.

At tackle, the Bears return the same starters as a year ago. Right tackle Darnell Wright was probably their best offensive lineman last season. Selected 10th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft after their trade down with the Panthers, Wright had a decent 62.4 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie before breaking out with a 79.3 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2024. Wright is technically a one-year wonder and could regress somewhat in 2025, but he also has a massive ceiling and, still only going into his age 24 season, his best years could still be ahead of him. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward in 2025.

Left tackle Braxton Jones played pretty well, with a 77.4 PFF grade. He was only a 5th round pick in 2022, but has proven to be a steal, with PFF grades of 75.4 and 68.8 in his first two seasons in the league before continuing to play well last season. The one concern with him is he has missed 11 games over the past two seasons, but I wouldn’t necessarily call him an injury prone player. The Bears also added extra insurance this off-season with second round pick Ozzy Trapilo, who could potentially be viewed as the long-term starter if Jones isn’t retained as a free agent next off-season.

The Bears also used a high draft pick on a potential long-term starter at tackle in last year’s draft, taking Kiran Amegadjie in the third round. Amegadjie struggled as a rookie with a 40.3 PFF grade across 126 snaps and his long-term outlook doesn’t look as good as it did a year ago, which is probably why Trapilo was added as well, but he could still develop into a long-term starter. With Trapilo being drafted, the Bears may view Amegadjie as a guard long-term more than a tackle. If he sees action as an injury replacement in 2025, it is more likely to be inside than outside. The Bears likely have above average starters at least four of five offensive line spots, with right guard being the exception, and some recent high draft picks as reserves, so this offensive line looks like it should be a strength this season.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Bears’ running game was also underwhelming last season, ranking just 4.02 in YPC at 27th, even with Caleb Williams having success on the ground. Lead back D’Andre Swift averaged just 3.80 YPC across 253 carries. Their running game should get a boost from Drew Dalman being added on the offensive line, but many expected the Bears to use a high draft pick to address their running back group, potentially even moving up in the first round to take Ashton Jeanty, the top running back prospect in the draft class, because Ben Johnson’s offense relied heavily on the running game in Detroit, led by a talented duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

The Bears couldn’t get Jeanty, but they did have opportunities to upgrade their backfield and opted not to, only using a 7th round pick on Kyle Monangai, an effective collegiate back who probably lacks the athleticism to be effective at the NFL level. That leaves Swift as the clear lead back again. A second round pick in 2020, Swift averaged 4.62 YPC in his first three seasons in the league, but was limited to 364 carries in 40 games due to injuries. In 2023, Swift was traded to Philadelphia and had 229 carries in 16 games, taking them for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns (4.58 YPC), giving him an impressive 4.60 YPC over 593 carries in his four seasons in the league, but only 2.53 of that came after contact, benefitting significantly from great blocking both in Detroit and Philadelphia. 

In his first season in Chicago, that average after contact was similar at 2.46, but he had far less room to work with. Swift should benefit from the Bears’ run blocking and offense in general being better in 2025, but he’s an underwhelming lead back in general who is reliant on talent around him. He is at least a capable pass catcher though, finishing last season with a 42/386/0 slash line and 1.09 yards per route run, which are actually down from his career averages of a 55/419/2 slash line per 17 games and 1.27 yards per route run. 

Roschon Johnson will also likely remain the #2 back. His yards per carry average was even worse than Swift’s at 2.73 on 55 carries, but that was because he was almost exclusively used as a short yardage option and he actually had success in that role, with a 56.4% carry success rate. He also rushed for 6 touchdowns, the same amount as Swift, despite a much smaller carry total. Johnson also had a decent 4.35 yards per carry average on 81 carries as a 4th round rookie in 2023 when he was used in an expanded role.

Without a significant addition being made to this backfield this off-season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnson get a bigger role beyond just short yardage and cut into D’Andre Swift’s carry total this season. Johnson also showed himself to be a decent pass catcher as a rookie with a 1.10 yards per route run average, though that did fall to 0.76 in 2024. Overall, the Bears have an underwhelming backfield, but they should benefit from better run blocking on the offensive line and likely a better offense around them in general.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Bears didn’t use any high draft picks on their backfield, but they did add to their receiving corps, adding tight end Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick and using one of their two second round picks on wide receiver Luther Burden. They are the latest in a long line of pass catchers the Bears have recently used significant assets on. DJ Moore was acquired in the trade with Carolina where they gave away the first overall pick and the Bears reportedly asked for Moore in lieu of adding another first round pick in the deal. Between that and the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal they gave him last off-season, the Bears have a lot of resources committed to Moore, but he is worth it.

Moore led the team with a 98/966/6 slash line last season and that actually constituted a down year for him. His receiving yardage was the third lowest of his 7-year career, while his 1.44 yards per route run average was the worst in his career. He exceeded 1,100 receiving yards in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023, with a yards per route run average over two yards per route run in 2019, 2020, and 2023, and he posted career highs across the board with a 96/1364/8 slash line and 2.31 yards per route run in 2023. In total, he has averaged 1.91 yards per route run in his career, while averaging a 83/1123/5 slash line per 17 games and missing just two games total. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, the former first round pick will almost definitely bounce back with a new coaching staff and likely better quarterback play in 2025.

Rome Odunze, the 9th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, will be the #2 receiver. He had a disappointing season last year as well, managing just a 54/734/3 slash line on 1.18 yards per route run, but he also could be a lot better in 2025, as he still has a lot of talent. With Moore and Odunze likely locked into their roles, that leaves Burden to compete with veteran free agent addition Olamide Zaccheus for the #3 receiver job. Burden had first round talent and could prove to be a steal, while Zaccheus had a solid 45/506/3 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run average last season in a part-time role with the Commanders. 

Zaccheus only has averaged 1.28 yards per route run in his career and had a career best year in his sixth season in the league last season, so Burden should beat him out, but both could have roles. It wouldn’t be hard for either to be an upgrade on the departed Keenan Allen, who commanded 121 targets last season but was very inefficient on them, finishing with just a 70/744/7 slash line. His vacated targets will likely be split amongst Burden, Zaccheus, and Loveland, with Odunze also likely seeing a larger target share.

Loveland will likely be the starting tight end, but the Bears still have Cole Kmet, an experienced tight end on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal, so he should still have a role and will probably prevent Loveland from having a big target share as a rookie. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Kmet had a career year in 2023 with a 73/719/6 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run, but like most of this offense he had a disappointing 2024 and fell to a 47/474/4 slash line and 0.91 yards per route run, marking the lowest yards per route run average of his career and the lowest receiving total since his rookie season. 

Only going into his age 26 season, Kmet had obvious bounce back potential in 2025 before Loveland was drafted and he should still see a significant increase in efficiency this season, but his overall playing time and production upside are going to be significantly reduced by the addition of Loveland. He’s as good as any #2 tight end in the league though and should still have somewhat of a role. Overall, this looks like a deep and talented receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

It wasn’t just the Bears’ offense that was disappointing in 2024, as the defense underperformed expectations as well. In 2023, the Bears finished the season ranked 18th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed and were even better down the stretch after adding Montez Sweat in a deadline trade, but in 2024 they fell to 30th yards in per play allowed and 19th in first down rate allowed. Montez Sweat himself was a disappointment as well. 

After finishing the 2023 season with 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate, including 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 9 games with the Bears, Sweat had just 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 16 games in 2024, while falling to a 65.6 PFF grade across 616 snaps, the lowest PFF grade since his rookie season in 2019. Sweat is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, and had PFF grades of 79.7, 75.6, 86.4, and 74.8 in his four previous seasons prior to last season, so he has a good chance to bounce in 2025.

Sweat bouncing back is much needed because the rest of this position group has a lot of problems. DeMarcus Walker was underwhelming with a 64.7 PFF grade across 738 snaps last season and wasn’t retained this off-season, but his replacement Dayo Odeyingbo is not really an upgrade, despite being added on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal. Odeyingbo was a second round pick in 2021, but has not lived up to the billing, finishing with PFF grades of 61.4, 62.6, 56.9, and 66.1 across an average of 515 snaps per season, while totaling 16.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate in 61 games. 

Last season was the best of Odeyingbo’s career, as his career high PFF grade came across a career high 746 snaps and he’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he may have further untapped potential, but the Bears are betting on his potential more than anything and could easily disappoint and be an overpay. Making matters even worse, the Bears desperately lack depth behind Sweat and Odeyingbo. Darrell Taylor (374 snaps), Austin Booker (283 snaps), and Jacob Martin (222 snaps) were the Bears’ top reserves last season. Martin and Taylor had pressure rates of 13.5% and 13.8% in limited roles, but neither was retained this off-season, leaving only Booker, who had a 6.5% pressure rate. 

Booker is a 2024 5th round pick and could be better in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and he’ll almost definitely be counted on for a big role, as the Bears didn’t add any other reserve options this off-season, leaving Daniel Hardy, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 72 career snaps, and Dominique Robinson, a 2022 5th round pick with a career 4.8% pressure rate, as their other best reserve options. Even if Sweat bounces back and Odeyingbo continues developing, both of which are not guaranteed, this position group will still have significant concerns.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Bears did at least make significant additions at the interior defender position this off-season, signing Grady Jarrett to a 3-year, 42.75 million dollar deal and using a second round pick on Shemar Turner. Both have some upside, but both also have significant downside, for opposite reasons. While Turner is a rookie, and a particularly raw one at that, Jarrett is going into his age 32 season and his 11th season in the league. Jarrett already had a down year last season, falling to a 62.1 PFF grade across 744 snaps, after exceeding 70 on PFF in each of his previous seven seasons, and he could easily decline further again in 2025. Even if he doesn’t, it’s very likely his best days are behind him at this stage of his career.

Even with Jarrett and Turner being added, Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings will still have significant roles as well. Dexter, a 2023 2nd round pick, had a mini breakout season last year with a 70.3 PFF grade across 616 snaps, after receiving a 50.9 PFF grade across 433 snaps as a rookie. Dexter played well both against the run and as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate. He’s technically a one-year wonder and could regress somewhat in 2025, but he also could have permanently turned a corner and he could even develop further and have an even better season, still only in his age 24 season.

Andrew Billings wasn’t quite as good, but he still had a decent 62.5 PFF grade, his 5th straight healthy season above 60 on PFF, with his career best PFF grade of 76.4 coming in 2022 on 478 snaps. He did miss nine games due to injury and was limited to 297 snaps as a result, which is somewhat of a concern, as he also missed all but 72 snaps between 2020 and 2021 due to injury. Billings is also going into his age 30 season, so his age is becoming a concern as well. He could be a solid rotational player who stays healthy, but there is some concern that won’t happen.

Chris Williams (367 snaps), Byron Cowart (335 snaps), and Zacch Pickens (228 snaps) all saw somewhat significant snaps for the Bears at the interior defender position last season and all struggled with PFF grades of 45.5, 58.9, and 45.5 respectively. However, Cowart is no longer on the team and, with Jarrett and Turner being added, Pickens and Williams will play deep reserve roles this season at most, if they even make the final roster. 

Pickens at least may have some untapped upside, as he was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but he has shown nothing across 492 career snaps to suggest he was deserving of that pick, while Williams is a 2020 undrafted free agent who had only played 107 career snaps prior to last season and who is highly unlikely to ever develop into even a decent rotational player. The Bears’ interior defender position group is much better for Jarrett and Turner being added and Pickens and Williams not needing to play significant roles this season as a result, but this is still only a solid position group.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Bears made a big investment in their linebacking corps two off-seasons ago when they added Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards on deals worth 72 million over 4 years and 19.5 million over 3 years respectively. Edmunds was the higher paid of the two by far, but Edwards has been the better player, earning an extension worth 20 million over 2 years this off-season. Edwards finished with a 79.6 PFF grade across 1,042 snaps in his first season in Chicago, which shouldn’t have been a surprise, as he had PFF grades of 76.3 and 84.8 across snap counts of 684 and 1,040 respectively in his final two seasons in Philadelphia before signing with the Bears in free agency. 

Edwards had a down year last year with only a 60.7 PFF grade across 1,054 snaps though, part of why the Bears’ defense disappointed, but he is still only going into his age 29 season and could easily bounce back in a big way in 2025. Edmunds, meanwhile, has had PFF grades of 56.6 and 59.2 over the past two seasons respectively, across snap counts of 876 and 1,055. He did have a 79.0 PFF grade across 760 snaps in his final season in Buffalo in 2022, but that was by far the best season of his 7-year career and has proven to be a fluke. He’s still only in his age 27 season and could bounce back a little bit in 2025, but it’s unlikely he will ever live up to his 2022 season and the big contract the Bears gave him as a result of that season.

The Bears used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Ruben Hyppolite and he could replace Edmunds as the starter if they decide to move on from him after the guaranteed money on his contract is finished next off-season, but in the meantime he will replace former backup Jack Sanborn, who had a decent 63.1 PFF grade across 235 snaps last season, before signing with the Cowboys this off-season. Other reserve options include Noah Sewell, who has flashed some potential in two seasons in the league since being a 2023 5th round pick, albeit on just 32 snaps, and Amen Ogbongbemiga, a career special teamer and former undrafted free agent who has played just 146 career snaps in four seasons in the league. It won’t take much for Hyppolite to be the top reserve even as a rookie in an overall solid, but unspectacular position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The strength of the Bears’ defense last season was their secondary, particularly their cornerback group, which was led by Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, who finished 10th and 12th respectively among cornerbacks with PFF grades of 76.2 and 76.0 respectively. For Johnson, this type of performance was expected and, in fact, it actually was a significant decline from 2023, when he led all cornerbacks with a 90.1 PFF grade, though that was the only season of his 5-year career in which he had played at that level, so that is likely somewhat of a fluke. Still, Johnson is one of the most talented cornerbacks in the league and is very much in his prime in his age 26 season, so I would expect him to continue playing at a high level, even if he doesn’t reach his 2023 peak again. 

For Gordon, his performance last season was somewhat of a surprise. The 2022 2nd round pick has always had the upside, but he had PFF grades of 49.8 and 65.6 in his first two seasons in the league, so 2024 was a significant improvement for him. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at that level or better, now going into his age 26 season, but he could also regress a little bit. He’s also only a slot cornerback, which limited him to 48.3 snaps per game last season, but, at his best, he’s one of the best pure slot cornerbacks in the league.

With Gordon playing in the slot, Tyrique Stevenson was the primary outside cornerback opposite Johnson last season, but he struggled with a 58.9 PFF grade across 810 snaps. Stevenson is a 2023 2nd round pick who has upside, but between last season and a 60.2 PFF grade across 830 snaps as a rookie, he hasn’t shown that upside yet. Stevenson also started ceding snaps down the stretch last season to Terrell Smith, who outplayed him significantly with a 78.5 PFF grade, albeit on just 207 snaps. Smith was just a 5th round pick in 2023, but he also showed potential with a 69.6 PFF grade across 377 snaps as a rookie and could ultimately be a better long-term option than Stevenson. Stevenson is probably the favorite for the #2 cornerback job in 2025, but he could be on a short leash and, at the very least, Smith is a good #4 cornerback option.

At safety, the Bears were led by Kevin Byard, who had a 72.8 PFF grade while making all 17 starts. That is nothing new for Byard, who has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of the past eight seasons, including three seasons over 80, while making all but 1 start during that time period. Byard is now heading into his age 32 season and could start declining soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, he has been remarkably durable throughout his career, and even if he does decline, he should remain a solid starter at the very least.

JaQuan Brisker began last season as the other starting safety and played decently with a 65.3 PFF grade across 5 starts, but then he suffered a season ending injury. Fortunately, the Bears actually didn’t experience any drop off without him, even though two different players made starts in his absence, with his original replacement Elijah Hicks also suffering a season ending injury after 356 snaps in 8 games and being replaced by Jonathan Owens, who played 429 snaps. In Brisker’s absence, Hicks and Owens received PFF grades of 71.8 and 66.5 respectively, so they were actually slight upgrades.

Brisker returns to the starting lineup in 2025 and will hopefully be healthier. The 2022 2nd round pick has played similarly to last season throughout his 3-year career, with PFF grades of 67.0 and 66.7 in 2022 and 2023, across 30 total starts. He’s still pretty young, going into his age 26 season, and could still have further untapped potential, but even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter. He will continue being backed up by Hicks and Owens. 

Owens had a 61.9 PFF grade across 774 snaps in 2023 with the Packers, though he also struggled with a 48.3 PFF grade across 970 snaps in 2022 with the Texans and he now heads into his age 30 season, but he’s still a good reserve option. Meanwhile, Hicks is a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 46.2 PFF grade across the first significant action of his career in 2023, when he played 487 snaps, but he isn’t a bad reserve option either. This looks likely to remain an above average secondary again in 2025.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Cairo Santos was an above average kicker last season, accumulating 2.84 points above average. That actually was a down year for him, as he has totaled 19.46 points above average over the past five seasons combined, good for 5th most among kickers during that span. Santos is going into his age 34 season in 2025, and last year could have been the beginning of a decline, but kickers can remain effective into their mid-30s, so there is a good chance he remains an above average kicker this season.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bears disappointed last year, drastically underperforming their talent level, in large part due to their poor coaching staff. Going into 2025, that coaching staff seems likely to be significantly improved, led by new Head Coach Ben Johnson, a highly accomplished coordinator and one of the most sought after head coaching hires of the past few off-seasons, as well as new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, whose past success as a coordinator has earned him two head coaching opportunities in his career. However, Johnson is still a first time head coach who isn’t guaranteed to be a success, the Bears were statistically even worse than their record last season, and they have one of the toughest schedules in the league, so it seems unlikely they will be a playoff team.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th in NFC North

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers

Quarterback

The Buccaneers made the post-season for the fifth straight season in 2024, the longest active streak in the NFC, but how they’ve done it hasn’t always been the same. The streak started in 2020 when the Buccaneers signed Tom Brady, who immediately elevated a team with a great supporting cast that was a quarterback away from contention and, as a result, the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers then spent aggressively to keep their team together in 2021 and 2022, borrowing future cap space to do so, but, while they made the playoffs in both seasons, they fell from 13 wins in 2021 to 8 wins in 2022, making the post-season only because of how weak the rest of the division was.

Following that disappointing 2022 season, Tom Brady retired and the Buccaneers were faced with a difficult decision. They needed to part ways with some players to get under the cap either way and could have opted to completely blow it up and start from scratch. Instead, the Buccaneers opted not to completely rebuild and kept as much of their core as they could. They then took a flier on free agent quarterback Baker Mayfield, a former #1 pick who had some successful seasons with the Browns earlier in his career, but who came cheap because he was two years removed from his last successful season and had most recently struggled mightily in a season that saw him make starts for both the Panthers and Rams in 2022.

Mayfield’s addition turned out to be a great decision as he bounced back with 64.3% completion, 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, a QB rating of 94.6, much more in line with the 93.7 QB rating he had in 2018 and the 95.9 QB rating he had in 2020 than the 83.1 QB rating he had in 2021 or the 79.0 QB rating he had in 2022. The result was the Buccaneers winning 9 games, the division, and even another playoff game. However, the Buccaneers struggled in terms of both yards per play differential at -0.33 and first down rate differential at -2.75%, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Their offense ranked 23rd in first down rate and 14th in yards per play, while their defense ranked 21st in first down rate allowed and 22th in yards per play allowed.

Between that and Baker Mayfield’s history of inconsistency, it seemed likely the Buccaneers would have fewer wins in 2024 than they did in 2023. Instead, their offense improved to a new level, ranking 3rd in first down rate and 4th in yards per play, in large part due to quarterback Baker Mayfield having a career best year, completing 71.4% of his passes for 7.89 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 106.8. The Buccaneers’ win total of 10 wasn’t a significant improvement and the Buccaneers actually lost their first playoff game this time around, but they succeeded in a way that tends to be much more sustainable long-term, finishing the season 3rd in first down rate differential at +4.33% and 5th in yards per play differential at +0.75, both of which are much better than their record suggested.

It is fair to wonder how much of the improvement of Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense was because of offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen came to Tampa Bay in a tough spot, replacing Dave Canales, whose previous success turning around Mayfield’s career in 2023 landed him the Carolina Panthers’ head coach job in 2024, but Coen’s offense proved to be even more effective than Canales’ offense. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, Coen also parlayed his one season as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator into a head coach job, leaving for the Jaguars, with former Coen assistant Josh Grizzard being elevated to his first NFL offensive coordinator job to replace him. It’s very possible Grizzard doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of success Coen had last season, which would be a big blow to this team.

Mayfield will again be backed up by Kyle Trask, who was originally drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft to potentially replace Brady long-term, before losing a competition for the starting job to Mayfield. In four seasons as the backup, Trask has only gotten to attempt 11 passes, so he’s an unknown commodity, but the Buccaneers like him enough to keep him as the backup for a fifth straight season, preventing him from leaving as a free agent with a 1-year, 2.7875 million dollar deal this off-season. It’s tough to know what to make of him, but needless to say the Buccaneers are hoping that Mayfield can stay healthy all season long again in 2025.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

It wasn’t just improved play by Baker Mayfield and the passing game that led to the Buccaneers’ offense being more effective this season, as they also improved significantly on the ground, going a 3.44 yards per carry average in 2023, dead last in the NFL, to a 5.25 yards per carry average in 2024, 3rd in the NFL. Part of that was due to improved offensive line play, which I will get into later, but the Buccaneers also got a huge year from rookie running back Bucky Irving, who was one of the best running backs in the league, despite only being a 4th round pick.

Irving rushed for 1,122 yards and 8 touchdowns on 207 carries, ranking 4th among eligible running backs in yards per carry at 5.42, 1st in yards per carry after contact at 4.03, 4th in PFF grade at 90.6, 2nd in elusive rating at 122.1, and 6th in carry success rate at 55.1. He was also an effective receiver too, ranking 6th among running backs with 1.63 yards per route run, taking 52 targets for a 47/392/0 slash line, despite playing only a part-time role in passing situations. Irving might not be quite as good again in 2025, especially with the coordinator change, but he looks likely to be one of the best running backs in the league for years to come.

Backup running back Rachaad White also had a solid season with a 4.26 yards per carry average and a 50.7% carry success rate on 144 carries, a significant upgrade from when he averaged 3.64 yards per carry and had a 40.8% carry success rate on 272 carries as the lead back in 2023. He saw his role gradually decline as the season went on, with White receiving 70 carries to Irving’s 67 in the first eight games they played together, as opposed to a 126-74 split in favor of Irving in the final eight games of the season. I would expect a similar split to those final eight games in 2025. White has struggled as the lead back before, but is a solid backup option. 

White is also likely to continue having a role in the passing game, which he has always had some success in, with a career 1.22 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Sean Tucker likely remains as the #3 back, after averaging 6.16 YPC on 50 carries last season. He went undrafted in 2023 and only has 65 carries in two seasons in the league, but he has a career 5.09 YPC average. He will likely remain in the same role and rotate in if either of the two backs ahead of him on the depth chart miss time. With an impressive lead back in Bucky Irving and good depth behind him, this is an impressive backfield. 

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line was also significantly improved in 2024, going from 10th in PFF pass blocking grade and 29th in PFF run blocking grade in 2023 to 2nd in pass blocking grade and 15th in run blocking grade in 2024. The biggest reason for this was the emergence of right guard Cody Mauch, a 2023 2nd round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie with a 44.7 PFF grade across 17 starts, but who then improved drastically in year two, finishing with a 75.4 PFF grade across 17 starts. Mauch is still technically a one-year wonder and could regress in 2025, but even if he does, he’s highly unlikely to regress back to his rookie year form and he also just as easily could continue being an above average starting guard, or even improve further.

Aside from Mauch’s massive improvement, the rest of this line was actually largely the same in 2024 as 2023. Center Graham Barton and left guard Ben Bredeson were new starters, but both were actually below average, with PFF grades of 55.8 and 56.2 respectively. Barton was a first round pick in 2024 and could easily be a lot better in his second season in the league in 2025, while Bredeson has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020, while making 42 starts total, and will likely continue struggling in 2025.

Tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke also remain in 2025 and both had similar seasons in 2024 as they had in 2023. Wirfs had an 82.8 PFF grade, his fifth straight season with a PFF grade in the 80s since entering the league as the 13th overall pick in 2020. Wirfs started his career at right tackle and has seamlessly made the transition to the blind side over the past two seasons. Only going into his age 26 season, I would expect Wirfs to play at a similar level for years to come and could even have further untapped upside. Goedeke, meanwhile, has had PFF grades of 72.5 and 73.7 over the past two seasons, after struggling as a 2nd round rookie in 2022 with a 43.7 PFF grade. He should continue being an above average starter in 2025.

Depth is a concern on this offensive line. The Buccaneers’ starting offensive line was pretty healthy last season, missing just five games combined between the five of them, which is not guaranteed to continue. Justin Skule (361 snaps) and Robert Hainsey (94 snaps) played well as the top reserves last season with PFF grades of 69.2 and 73.3 respectively, but both left this off-season and weren’t really replaced. The most notable off-season addition the Buccaneers made on the offensive line was Charlie Heck, who is likely to be the swing tackle, even though he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020 (23 starts).

On the interior, the Buccaneers are hoping Sua Opeta can be their top reserve, after he missed all of last season with injury. A 2019 undrafted free agent, Opeta has only finished above 60 on PFF once in his career and coming off of a major injury hurts his projection even more. The Buccaneers have an above average starting offensive line, but they could have significant problems if they can’t stay as healthy as they did a year ago, given their lack of depth.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

If there is one reason this offense could survive the loss of offensive coordinator Liam Coen without declining significantly, it’s a receiving corps that should be significantly improved. Chris Godwin is set to return from a broken ankle that cost him all but 10 games last season. Godwin is an accomplished receiver who has finished above 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, including six seasons over 80, while surpassing 1000 yards receiving four times and averaging 1.97 yards per route run for his career. As good as he’s been in his career, he was actually on his way to a career year best last season, as his 2.36 yards per route run average was a career high and the 121/1399/12 slash line he was on pace for would have also set new career highs across the board.

There is some concern about whether or not Godwin will be quite as good again in 2025, coming off of a major injury, but he’s still in his relative prime in his age 29 season and, even if he isn’t quite as good, he should remain an above average receiver and having him healthy for significantly more games will be a boost to this offense. In Godwin’s absence last season, Jalen McMillan was the de facto #2 receiver and the 3rd round rookie was underwhelming overall, with a PFF grade of 61.0 and a yards per route run average of 1.18, but he seemed to turn a corner late in the season, with a 24/316/7 slash line and 1.90 yards per route run in his final five seasons of the regular season. Now going into his second season in the league, it’s very possible he will continue being an efficient player, though his role will be smaller.

McMillan’s role being smaller is in part due to Godwin returning, but it’s also due to the Buccaneers using their first round pick in this year’s draft on Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka will have to earn a role in a deep receiving corps, but his addition does give them some insurance in case Godwin can’t return to form or in case McMillan doesn’t continue developing. Egbuka also gives the Buccaneers a potential long-term replacement for Mike Evans, who has been the Buccaneers #1 receiver for years, exceeding 1000 yards receiving and a 70 PFF grade in all eleven seasons in the league since being selected 7th overall in 2014, with a career 2.08 yards per route run average and seven seasons above 80 on PFF, but who is now going into his age 32 season and will start to decline soon.

Evans hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, finishing last season with a 74/1004/11 slash line in just 14 games, while averaging 2.41 yards per route run and receiving an 89.0 PFF grade, but age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability and a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. It’s very possible Evans sees at least some decline this season, but the addition of Egbuka, the return of Godwin, and the potential continued development of McMillan should more than make up for that in a wide receiver group that looks likely to be significantly better in 2025 than 2024.

With the issues the Buccaneers had at wide receiver last season, tight end Cade Otton took on a bigger role, finishing second on the team with 87 targets, up from target totals of 65 and 67 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, but he wasn’t particularly efficient, finishing the season with a 59/600/4 slash line, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 63.4 PFF grade. That was still better than 2022 and 2023, when the 2022 4th round pick had yard per route run averages of 0.84 and 0.80 and PFF grades of 56.6 and 52.1, but Otton doesn’t seem like he has a particularly high upside and will likely max out as a decent starting tight end. I would expect a significantly smaller role in the offense from him this season, given how much better the Buccaneers’ wide receivers should be.

Otton will continue being backed up by Payne Durham, who was an above average blocker last season, but averaged just 0.78 yards per route run. The 2023 5th round pick has a career 0.87 yards per route run average and is a one-year wonder in terms of blocking at the level he blocked at in 2024, but he could remain a solid blocking tight end. He won’t be needed for much of a pass catching role in a group with a significantly better wide receiver group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While the Buccaneers’ offense took a big step forward in 2024, their defense wasn’t much better, ranking 15th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed. Their best player was probably edge defender Yaya Diaby, who had a mini breakout year in his second season in the league, with a 76.7 PFF grade that was best among Buccaneers defenders across 785 snaps. Also a solid run defender, Diaby especially played well as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 14 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate. A 2023 3rd round pick, Diaby showed potential with a 64.2 PFF grade across 515 snaps as a rookie, before taking a big step forward last season. He should remain an above average starter going forward, with the upside to potentially get even better.

The rest of this edge defender group was underwhelming last season though. Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka were second and third among Buccaneers edge defenders with 573 snaps and 539 snaps played respectively and both struggled with PFF grades of 55.9 and 52.0 respectively. Tyron-Shoyinka wasn’t retained this off-season, while Nelson is likely to have a smaller role this season, with the Buccaneers adding veteran Haason Reddick in free agency, using a 4th round pick on David Walker, and likely giving a bigger role to 2024 second round pick Chris Braswell, who showed some promise with a 61.0 PFF grade across 328 snaps as a rookie. Nelson also has bounce back potential in a smaller role, as he had finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, on an average of 375 snaps, and is still only going into his age 28 season in 2025.

Reddick is likely to start opposite Diaby. Reddick had a weird 2024 season, holding out for the first seven games of the season in search of a new contract and then struggling with a 53.5 PFF grade across 392 snaps once he returned. However, he had PFF grades of 72.8, 67.9, 81.1, and 75.2 on snap counts of 874, 852, 816, and 861 in his previous four seasons, excelling as a pass rusher with 50.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 66 games, so he has bounce back potential with his new team in what should be a normal season for him. The one concern is he is going into his age 31 season, but even if he is not quite as good as he was from 2020-2023, he should still be an upgrade for the Buccaneers on the edge. This could be a solid position group overall.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Things remain largely the same at the interior defender position in 2025 as they were in 2024, with their top-4 in terms of snaps played, Vita Vea (705 snaps), Calijah Kancey (541 snaps), Logan Hall (538 snaps), Greg Gaines (395 snaps) all returning for 2025. Vea was by far the best of the bunch, finishing last season with a 75.7 PFF grade, playing well as a run defender and as a pass rusher, with 7 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. This was nothing new for Vea, who has finished above 70 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, mostly playing well against the run and adding 30.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 95 career games. Vea could start to decline soon, going into his age 30 season, but even if he isn’t quite at his best in 2025, he should still remain an above average starter.

Calijah Kancey was also an effective pass rusher, with 7.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run. This is similar to how the 2023 1st round pick played as a rookie, when he had 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but again struggled mightily as a run defender. Kancey is still only going into his age 24 season and has time to get better as a run defender and, at the very least, he should remain an above average interior pass rusher in 2025 and beyond. 

Logan Hall is also a recent high draft pick, selected in the second round in 2022, but he hasn’t shown himself to be worth that pick, either as a run defender or a pass rusher, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league. He could still have theoretical upside, only going into his age 25 season, but there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025 than he has been in his first three seasons in the league. Gaines also struggled last season, finishing with a 50.5 PFF grade. It was his third straight season below 60 on PFF and, while he did begin his career with three straight seasons above 60, it seems unlikely that he will bounce back to that level at this point, even if he isn’t totally over the hill yet in his age 29 season.

The one small change to this group from a year ago is that William Gholston wasn’t retained, after having a solid season in a very limited role last season, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 201 snaps. He will likely be replaced by 5th round pick Elijah Roberts, who is likely to struggle, even in a limited role. This position group has some problems, but Vita Vea is a great all-around defensive tackle, while Calijah Kancey is a great pass rusher, so there are also some things to like about this group.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The longest tenured Buccaneer, by far, is Lavonte David, who has been with the team since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2012. In his 13 seasons in the league, David has finished above 60 on PFF in every season of his career, above 70 in nine seasons, and above 80 in five seasons. He wasn’t at his best last season, with a 68.7 PFF grade across 1,077 snaps, and he’s now heading into his age 35 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, so he could drop off even more significantly in 2025, but there is still a chance he holds off father time for another year and remains at least a solid starter.

The other starting linebacker spot is much more of a question. Last season, the Buccaneers started the season with SirVocea Dennis and KJ Britt splitting snaps there. Dennis played decently, with a 67.3 PFF grade, but he went down for the season with injury after just 105 snaps in four games, while Britt struggled with a 44.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps. Britt took over the every down role after Dennis got hurt, but he struggled so much that he started ceding snaps down the stretch to JJ Russell, who was an upgrade in a limited role, with a 67.0 PFF grade across 249 snaps.

Britt and Russell weren’t retained this off-season and, now healthy, the Buccaneers look likely to give Dennis the first crack at the starting job. The 2023 5th round pick has upside, also having a 66.3 PFF grade as a rookie before last year’s solid performance prior to his injury, but he’s extremely unproven and a projection to a larger role, playing just 206 snaps total in two seasons in the league. Even if he earns a role this season, it might not be an every down role.

To compete with him, the Buccaneers added veteran Anthony Walker in free agency. Walker has started 83 of 99 games played in eight seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in six of those seasons, but he fell to a 48.0 PFF grade across 516 snaps in 2024 and now he heads into his age 30 season. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 33 games in eight seasons in the league, with at least three games missed in five of those eight seasons. He could still have another solid season as a starter or rotational player left in him, but his age, recent struggles, and injury history are a concern. With Walker’s issues, Dennis’ lack of experience, and Lavonte David’s age, there are a lot of concerns with this linebacking corps, but there is at least upside.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The biggest weakness of this secondary last season was the safety position. Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead began the season as the starters and finished with PFF grades of 56.8 and 58.0 respectively. Both also missed significant time with injury, limited to 528 snaps in 9 games and 731 snaps in 12 games respectively. In their absences, the primary replacement was Christian Izien, who also struggled, with a 57.6 PFF grade across 697 snaps.

The good news is the Buccaneers should get better play at least one safety spot this season, with Antoine Winfield having a lot of bounce back potential. Prior to last season’s down year, Winfield had received PFF grades of 86.1, 77.8, and 91.5 in the three previous seasons and he is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season. Last year’s struggles likely stemmed from not being totally healthy for most of the season, even when on the field. Assuming his injuries are behind him, Winfield’s upside is still as high as any safety in the league this season.

The other safety spot is much more of a question. Whitehead wasn’t retained this off-season, which isn’t a huge deal because he struggled last season, but the Buccaneers didn’t do anything to replace him. Christian Izien is a candidate for the other starting safety role. He had a decent rookie season in 2023, with a 66.8 PFF grade across 718 snaps, before struggling last season, but that came as a slot cornerback and he was originally an undrafted free agent, so it’s not a guarantee he ever develops into a consistent starter anywhere. Kaevon Merriweather might be another option, but he was also a 2023 undrafted free agent and he has mostly been nondescript across 419 snaps in two seasons in the league, though he did have a 65.7 PFF grade in a limited role (260 snaps) last season.

Maybe the Buccaneers’ best option would be to move slot cornerback Tykee Smith to safety, where he played in college, as the Buccaneers have a lot more depth at cornerback than at safety. Smith played pretty well on the slot last season as a third round rookie though, with a 70.2 PFF grade across 632 snaps, so the Buccaneers might be hesitant to move him off that spot and it’s possible he isn’t as good at safety as he was on the slot. Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean were both above average as the other two cornerbacks last season though, with PFF grades of 69.5 and 75.1 respectively, and the Buccaneers then added cornerbacks in the second and third round of this year’s draft in Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, so they do have a surplus at that position.

Dean is the veteran of the bunch, selected in the 3rd round in 2019. He has never finished worse than 68.3 on PFF for a season, with five seasons above 70 out of six seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent issue for him, as he’s missed at least two games in every season, with a maximum snap count of 884 snaps in a season, while missing 18 games total in six seasons in the league. McCollum, meanwhile, is a 2022 5th round pick who is a one-year wonder, having a solid season last season after PFF grades of 46.3 and 52.1 on snap counts of 278 and 784 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. 

McCollum could continue being a solid cornerback, but he could also regress somewhat. Overall, this secondary looks likely to be better than a year ago, with Winfield likely to bounce back in a big way and a couple relatively high draft picks being added, but the Buccaneers still need to figure out the other safety spot and they have a couple young defensive backs who exceeded expectations last season who may not continue playing at the same level in 2025.

Grade: B

Kickers

Kicker Chase McLaughlin’s career got off to a slow start, as he attempted kicks for six different teams in his first three seasons in the league, finishing below average in all three seasons, but he has finished above average in each of the past three seasons and has especially been good over the past two seasons. His 17.04 points above average in 2023 and 2024 combined are the 4th most in the league over that span, while his 9.64 points above average in 2024 ranked 3rd. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best kickers in the league in 2025.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Buccaneers’ offense might not be as good in 2025 without offensive coordinator Liam Coen, but they are starting from a high enough base point as a team, ranking 5th in yards per play differential and 3rd in first down rate differential in 2024, that they should still be an above average team, even if their offense regresses. They still look like the best team in the NFC South, they have an easy schedule, and, while they probably aren’t a true contender for the Super Bowl, they are still one of the top few teams in the NFC.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC South

Houston Texans 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

In 2023, the Texans had a surprise 10-7 season, won their division, and then won a wild card playoff game, led by impressive rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, as well as other talented young players who had breakout seasons. Last off-season, the Texans were aggressive in trying to maximize the rest of their roster while Stroud and others were on cheap rookie contracts and made numerous veteran additions, most notably wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired in a trade with the Bills. Many expected them to take another step forward in 2024 as a result and potentially even contend for a Super Bowl.

The Texans’ 2024 season wasn’t bad, but it was disappointing given their pre-season expectations, as their 2024 season essentially went the same way as 2023 did, a 10-7 record, a division title, and a wild card playoff win. Making matters even worse, the Texans were not even as good as their 10-7 record suggested in the regular season, finishing the year with a negative first down rate differential at -0.38% and only finishing slightly positive in yards per play differential at +0.03.

Their offense was the most disappointing as they went from 12th in yards per play and 17th in first down rate in 2023 to 19th in yards per play and 29th in first down rate in 2024. CJ Stroud fell from a 63.9% completion, 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (100.8 QB rating) to 63.2% completion, 7.01 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (87.0 QB rating). It wasn’t all his fault as his PFF grade actually only fell from 83.0 to 78.9, but it was a relatively disappointing year from him, given how good he was as a rookie. 

I will get into the other reasons this offense struggled last season later and will address whether I expect those issues to continue in 2025, but Stroud’s disappointing second season in the league wasn’t totally unexpected, given that impressive rookies often take a step back in their second season in the league, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he bounced back or even had his best season yet in his third season in the league in 2025, still only turning 24 in October. The future is still very bright for Stroud, who has the potential to be among the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Stroud will continue being backed up by Davis Mills. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Mills made 25 starts in his first two seasons in the league before Stroud was added, but completed just 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, while going just 5-19-1. Mills’ lack of supporting cast can be blamed somewhat for his struggles in those two seasons and it’s possible he has gotten better since then, but across 75 pass attempts since becoming the backup, Mills has completed 50.7% of his passes for an average of 5.13 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He showed enough for the Texans to keep him on a 1-year, 5 million dollar extension, but he’s an underwhelming backup option and the Texans would obviously be in trouble if Stroud missed significant time and Mills had to start in his absence.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason why the Texans’ offense disappointed last season was injuries to their receiving corps. In 2023, the Texans had a pair of talented young wide receivers who had breakout years in Nico Collins and Tank Dell and then they added veteran Stefon Diggs to the mix to give them arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. However, Collins missed five games, Diggs suffered a torn ACL that ended his season after 8 games, while Dell was not 100% to start the season recovering from a broken leg suffered late in 2023 and then, right around when he started to look like himself, he suffered a multi-ligament tear in his knee in week 16 that could cost him all of 2025.

With Diggs signing with the Patriots this off-season and Dell’s 2025 in jeopardy, wide receiver was a big need for the Texans this off-season and they addressed it by trading for veteran Christian Kirk and then using second and third round picks on Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Nico Collins remains as the #1 receiver. The 2021 3rd round pick showed promise early in his career, with a yards per route run average of 1.24 as a rookie and 1.68 in his second season in the league, despite shaky quarterback play, and then he broke out in his third season in 2023 when Stroud arrived, finishing the season with a 80/1297/8 slash line in 15 games on just 109 targets, while averaging 3.10 yards per route run and posting a 91.0 PFF grade.

In 2024, his PFF grade was even better at 91.6 and he had a 68/1006/7 slash line with 2.87 yards per route run on just 99 targets in 12 games. Over 17 games, that extrapolates to a 96/1425/10 slash line and that’s despite possibly not being 100% after returning from injury. Through his first five games of the season before getting hurt, Collins had a 32/567/3 slash line, which extrapolates to a 109/1928/10 slash line over 17 games. Injuries have always been an issue for him as he’s missed at least two games in all four seasons in the league, with 17 total games missed, but he’s among the best receivers in the league when healthy and, still only going into his age 26 season, his upside is massive in 2025 if he can avoid injury.

Christian Kirk should be a solid #2 option. He has missed 14 games over the past two seasons combined but averaged 2.07 yards per route run in 2023 and 1.72 yards per route run in 2024. Over the past four seasons combined, he has averaged 1.85 yards per route run with an average slash line of 77/1025/5 per 17 games and he’s still relatively young, only in his age 29 season. He probably won’t have as big of a target share in Houston as he had over the past four seasons, but his quarterback situation should be better and he won’t face many double teams with Nico Collins taking coverage away from him. Injuries are his biggest concern, but he comes with plenty of upside if he can stay healthy.

Kirk as the #2 receiver leaves the rookies Higgins and Noel to compete with holdover John Metchie for the #3 receiver job. Metchie is a former high draft pick himself, going in the second round in 2022, but he missed his whole rookie season while recovering from cancer and hasn’t developed in two years since, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run in a part-time role. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could still have upside, but the rookie Higgins will probably end up as the #3 receiver sooner rather than later and Metchie could end up as low as 5th on the depth chart behind Noel.

Tight end Dalton Schultz also had a down year in 2024 as well, going from a 59/635/5 slash line with 1.47 yards per route run in 2023 to a 53/532/2 slash line with 1.04 yards per route run last season. Schultz also averaged 1.47 yards per route run in 2021 and 1.38 yards per route run in 2022 and he’s still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, so it’s very possible 2024 proves to be a fluke and he bounces back in 2025. Even at his best, he’s not an elite tight end, but he is a solid one and a bounce back from him would help this offense at least somewhat.

Schultz will be backed up by either Cade Stover or Brevin Jordan. Stover, a 2024 4th round pick, was mediocre as a rookie with 0.92 yards per route run and a 51.9 PFF grade, but he could be better in his second season in the league. Jordan, meanwhile, was impressive as the #2 tight end in 2023, with 1.59 yards per route run and a 68.7 PFF grade, but he missed most of last season with injury. Jordan, a 2021 5th round pick, is still only going into his age 25 season, but he has just a 1.02 yards per route run average aside from 2023 and coming back from a significant injury complicates matters, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will return to his 2023 form in 2025. He’s still probably the favorite for the #2 tight end job, but it’s very possible both tight ends see roles behind Schultz. Overall, this receiving corps looks likely to be better than a year ago, when injuries significantly affected it.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The other reason this offense disappointed in 2024 was the struggles of their offensive line. The Texans overhauled their offensive line this off-season, adding numerous starting options, but they also traded away left tackle Laremy Tunsil in the process and he was their best offensive lineman last season with a 76.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. The Texans felt they wouldn’t be able to afford him long-term given all of the Texans’ other young players who will need big pay raises in the next couple off-seasons and wanted to get something for him while they could, ahead of his age 31 season. However, none of the other offensive linemen the Texans brought in this off-season have Tunsil’s upside and, as a result, this offensive line could potentially be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Tunsil’s likely replacement is Cam Robinson, who the Texans signed to a 1-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Robinson has made 101 starts in eight seasons in the league, all at left tackle, so he comes with plenty of experience, but he also has never finished with a PFF grade higher than 67.2. The flip side of that is he has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, so he at least gives the Texans a floor at the left tackle position, but he doesn’t give them much upside, especially since he is now heading into his age 30 season.

At right tackle, the Texans have several options. Tytus Howard started 12 games there last season, but he can also play guard, where he started 4 games down the stretch last season and where he has made 25 of his 77 career starts in six seasons in the league. If he moves to guard, the Texans could start 2024 2nd round pick Blake Fisher, rookie 2nd round pick Aireontae Ersery, or veteran free agent addition Trent Brown at right tackle.

Fisher was mediocre across 337 snaps (5 starts) as a rookie, with a 50.4 PFF grade, but could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Ersery enters the league pretty raw, but also has upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a capable starter in year one. Brown has finished above 60 on PFF in all ten seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, but he’s also missed 61 games in his career, including 20 over the past two seasons, and he’s now heading into his age 32 season so, even if he starts at the beginning of the season, the chances he gets hurt or gets benched due to age related decline are significant. 

Howard figures to be a starter somewhere, whether right tackle or one of the guard spots. He’s been inconsistent in six years in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but he did have a career best year in 2024, with a 70.5 PFF grade. He’s unlikely to repeat the best year of his career again in 2025, given his inconsistent past, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain at least a capable starter. Guard makes more sense for him than right tackle because the Texans have fewer options there, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play right tackle or even for him to see starts at both.

Aside from Howard, the Texans options at guard are free agent acquisition Laken Tomlinson, trade acquisition Ed Ingram, and holdover Juice Scruggs, who made 8 starts at center last season, but started his final 5 games at guard. Tomlinson is a veteran who has made 155 starts in 10 seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in seven of those seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and the 62.1 PFF grade he had last season was his best of the past three seasons. That’s probably the best case scenario for him at this point in his career and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him struggle.

Ingram was a second round pick by the Vikings in 2022, but he hasn’t developed, with PFF grades of 57.1, 59.5, and 54.0 in three seasons in the league (41 starts), which is why he was available so inexpensively via trade this off-season. He may still have some untapped potential, but he is running out of time to make good on that potential. Scruggs is also a former 2nd round pick, selected in 2023. He struggled in seven starts at guard as a rookie with a 51.5 PFF grade, but was better last season with a 63.6 PFF grade and could remain at least a capable starter. Overall, the Texans’ guard options are underwhelming, but it’s not like they got great guard play last season either.

If Scruggs doesn’t end up with a starting job at guard, he could compete at center. His primary competition at center would be Jarrett Patterson, who has been decent with PFF grades of 60.4 and 61.0 across 16 total starts in two seasons in the league, despite only being a 6th round pick in 2023. The Texans have options on the offensive line, but overall it seems like they have much more quantity than quality and, as a result, this is likely to remain a below average offensive line again this season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with Stefon Diggs, the other key veteran addition the Texans made on offense last season was running back Joe Mixon. Unlike Diggs, Mixon remains on the roster and will remain the starter in 2025. Mixon wasn’t necessarily a disappointment in his first season in Houston, but he wasn’t a difference maker either. He handled the load, with 245 carries in 14 games and he had 11 rushing touchdowns, but his 4.15 yards per carry average was unspectacular. He also slowed down significantly down the stretch, averaging 4.83 yards per carry on 126 carries in his first 6 games, as opposed to 3.42 yards per carry on 119 carries in his final 8 games.

Mixon has rushed for 7,428 yards and 60 touchdowns on 1,816 carries in his career (4.09 YPC), while averaging a 49/375/2 slash line per 17 games through the game, but he is now heading into his age 29 season with 2,135 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to start declining significantly. With Mixon getting up there in age, the Texans used a 4th round pick on Woody Marks to potentially replace him long-term. Marks is likely to begin his career as the third string running back though, as the Texans already have a capable backup in Dameon Pierce.

Pierce has seen his carry total decline from 220 to 145 to 40 in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2022, but he has a solid 4.07 yards per carry average in his career, with 3.28 yards per carry coming after contact. He also showed himself capable of being a lead back as a rookie in 2022, when he averaged 4.27 yards per carry on 220 carries with 3.28 yards per carry after contact. He’s pretty useless in passing situations, with 0.76 yards per route run averaged for his career, but he’s a good backup to have on early downs. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his carry total increase this season if the Texans want to rest Mixon more frequently to keep him fresher as he ages. This isn’t a bad backfield, but none of the Texans’ running backs are game changers.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Texans’ offense was disappointing in 2024, their defense actually played well and was by far the strength of this team. In 2023, they ranked 13th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed and in 2024, they jumped to 4th in yards per play allowed and 3rd in first down rate allowed. A big reason for that success was free agent acquisition Danielle Hunter, who had a 82.7 PFF grade across 766 snaps in the first year of a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal.

That was nothing new for Hunter, who has finished above 70 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, dating back to 2016, including finishes above 80 in four of the past five seasons. In total, he has 93.5 sacks, 65 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 122 games since 2016, including 12 sacks, 13 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate last season, and he’s a high level run defender as well. Hunter is going into his age 31 season in 2025, so he could start to decline, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2025, he will likely remain at least an above average starter.

Hunter makes up a dominant edge defender duo with Will Anderson, the 3rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, who had an impressive rookie season, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year on the strength of 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, and a 81.8 PFF grade across 629 snaps and then he was even better in his second season in the league in 2024, finishing with a 85.1 PFF grade across 561 snaps and totaling 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate. Still only going into his age 24 season in 2025, Anderson may not have reached his peak yet and looks like to be one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come. He could play at a Defensive Player of the Year caliber level this season.

With a duo like Hunter and Anderson leading the way, the Texans don’t have much need for depth, but they have at least one good option. Derek Barnett is not much of a pass rusher, with a career 9.8% pressure rate and just a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but he’s an above average run defender who can be useful in a situational role. He’s finished above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all but one of his eight seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70 and run defense grades of 80.1 and 72.6 over the past two seasons respectively. He played 390 snaps last season and I would expect a similar role from him in 2025.

Denico Autry has been a useful player for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in 9 of 11 seasons in the league, while averaging 566 snaps per season, but he fell to a 56.0 PFF grade across just 314 snaps last season and now heads into his age 35 season, so he might not even be a useful depth player at this point in his career. He’ll compete for a reserve role with 2023 4th round pick Dylan Horton, who has played 387 nondescript snaps in his career, but could have upside, and free agent acquisition Darrell Taylor, a 2020 2nd round pick who has never finished above 60 on PFF in overall grade for a season, but who has at least been useful as a situational pass rusher, with a career 10.7% pressure rate, including a 13.8% pressure rate last season. Overall, this is a great edge defender group, led by Anderson and Hunter.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The weak spot on this defense was the interior defender position, where the Texans didn’t have a single player finish with higher than a 60 grade on PFF. All four of the Texans top interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season all return and could play similar roles. Tim Settle led this position group with 625 snaps played in 17 games and finished with a 57.6 PFF grade. He was an effective pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, but struggled mightily with a 42.6 run defense grade. This has largely been the case for him throughout his 7-year career, as he has finished above 60 in run defense grade just once, but has a decent 7.7% pressure rate for his career. 

Now in his age 28 season, Settle likely is who he is at this stage of his career and should remain an effective pass rusher who struggles against the run this season. Mario Edwards ranked second with 466 snaps played in 13 games and he is a similar player to Settle. He has a 8.5% pressure rate for his career, including a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of the past six seasons. Now going into his age 31 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his pass rush declined as well.

Folorunso Fatukasi was the worst of the bunch with a 33.7 PFF grade across 308 snaps in 11 games. He’s had better years in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of the previous five seasons prior to last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as bad in 2025 as he was in 2024, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him at this point and he could easily continue being a liability. Kurt Hinish could also remain in the mix for snaps, despite finishing with PFF grades of 49.5, 40.0, and 56.2 on snap counts of 435, 465, and 231 in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2022.

The Texans did add Sheldon Rankins to the mix this off-season, but it’s unclear how much that will help. Rankins is returning to Houston, where he played in 2023 and if the Texans get the 2023 version of him, that will be a big boost, as he struggled against the run, but was a dominant pass rusher with 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. However, Rankins had a 55.3 PFF grade and was limited to 287 snaps in seven games with the Bengals last season due to an illness. Availability has consistently been an issue for him, as he has missed 32 games in nine seasons in the league, with at least four games missed in four of those seasons. Now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days could be behind him, but there is a scenario in which he is a useful player for them at a position of need in 2025. Overall, this is still an underwhelming position group. 

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Another big addition the Texans made to their defense last off-season was linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. He was limited to 573 snaps in 11 games, primarily by a suspension for repeated personal fouls, but he had a 70.9 PFF grade when he did play. Al-Shaair has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, but last season was his career best PFF grade, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed at least a little bit this season, but the flip side of that is he is likely to be available for more games and play more snaps this season.

Al-Shaair started next to Henry To’oTo’o, who improved significantly from 2023 to 2024. A 2023 5th round pick, To’oTo’o struggled during his rookie season with a 42.7 PFF grade across 435 snaps, but he improved to about a league average starter in 2024, with a 60.9 PFF grade across 830 snaps. It’s possible he could regress in 2025, but it’s also possible he has permanently turned the corner and will remain at least a capable starter, potentially with the upside to get even better in his third season in the league.

The Texans actually didn’t miss Al-Shaair that much when he was out last season because reserves Neville Hewitt and Jake Hansen finished the season with PFF grades of 70.2 and 78.2 respectively across snap counts of 342 and 135 respectively. Hewitt wasn’t brought back this off-season, but Hansen remains. He has only played 383 snaps in three seasons in the league and went undrafted in 2022, but he’s shown a lot of promise in limited action, with PFF grades of 69.1, 74.8, and 78.2 across his three seasons in the league.

The Texans also added EJ Speed in free agency this off-season to further bolster their depth and they have 2022 3rd round pick Christian Harris set to return from an injury plagued 2024 season in which he played just 172 snaps in three games. Speed has played 56.2 snaps per game while starting 26 of 31 games played over the past two seasons and has generally been a marginal starter, with PFF grades of 65.0 and 56.4 respectively. Now in Houston, it’s unlikely he will remain an every down player, but he should still be a useful situational run stuffer, having received run defense grades of 82.8, 78.8, and 71.5 from PFF over the past three seasons respectively, and if To’oTo’o regresses, Speed would likely be the Texans’ first option to replace him as an every down player.

Harris, meanwhile, was a decent starter in 2023 with a 60.1 PFF grade across 755 snaps, but he also had a 28.3 PFF grade across 711 snaps as a rookie in 2022 and had a 40.0 PFF grade across 172 snaps last season, so he is probably not returning to a starting role in a linebacking corps that is even deeper that it was last season. Overall, this is not a spectacular group, but they have plenty of depth and options and could be an above average group overall.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Texans also got better cornerback play in 2024 than they did in 2023, due to impressive play from second round pick Kamari Lassister and a breakout year by slot cornerback Jalen Pitre, who converted from safety. Lassister had a 70.0 PFF grade across 799 snaps in 14 games, while Pitre had a 73.9 PFF grade across 660 snaps, after the 2022 2nd round pick had middling grades of 57.1 and 61.6 on snap counts of 1,088 and 904 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Lassister will likely remain an above average starter in 2025 and has the upside to be even better, while Pitre has some regression potential, but could have permanently turned a corner and could remain an above average player in his second season at his new position.

Derek Stingley will remain the top cornerback. He didn’t have quite as good of a season in 2023 as he did in 2024, falling from a 81.8 PFF grade to a 73.9 PFF grade, but he played all 17 games, as opposed to 11 in 2023. Still only going into his age 24 season, Stingley, the third overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, looks likely to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come. The one concern with him is injuries as, even though he played in all 17 games last season, he missed 14 in his first two seasons combined and had durability issues as a prospect coming out of college.

The Texans bolstered their cornerback depth this off-season by using a third round pick on Jaylin Smith and signing veteran Ronald Darby. Darby has finished above 60 on PFF in nine of ten seasons in the league, including five seasons above 70, while starting 107 of 118 games he has played, but he’s also missed 46 games in those ten seasons, with four or more games missed in six seasons, and now he’s heading into his age 31 season. He’s good depth to have, but he might not be reliable if forced to start for an extended period of time.

At safety, the Texans lost Eric Murray, who played 857 snaps last season, but he only had a 61.7 PFF grade and the Texans almost definitely upgraded on him by trading for CJ Gardner-Johnson. Gardner-Johnson had a 76.0 PFF grade across 907 snaps last season and, while that was a career best, he’s not a one-year wonder, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70. Durability has been his biggest issue, as he has missed 26 games across those six seasons, but, as long as he is healthy, he should be an above average starter, still only in his age 28 season.

Gardner-Johnson will likely start next to Calen Bullock. Bullock struggled with a 52.3 PFF grade across 977 snaps last season, but the 2024 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league. The alternative is Jimmie Ward, who is extremely proven, with PFF grades above 70 in five of the past six seasons, including a 76.1 PFF grade in 2024, but he is now going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly in 2025. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 54 games in 11 seasons in the league, including 7 last season, when he was limited to just 461 snaps played. He’ll probably be a reserve this season, but he’s at least versatile, capable of playing safety and slot cornerback, he is likely to at least have a situational sub package role, and he could still have another solid year left in the tank in a reduced role. This is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn was a slightly below average kicker last season, with 1.48 points below average. He was above average on field goals of 50+, making 13 of 17, and on field goals of 40-49, making 6 of 7, but he also missed three extra points and three kicks from inside 40 yards. Overall, he’s been a slightly above average kicker in his career, accumulating 9.09 points above average in eight seasons in the league. I would expect him to be somewhere around average again in 2025, still in the prime of his career in his age 31 season.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans’ offense disappointed last season due to regression from quarterback CJ Stroud, injuries to their receiving corps, and poor play on the offensive line. Their receiving corps should be better this year, but their offensive line looks likely to be worse and their running game could easily be worse as well. This is still the best team in the AFC South by default, but they have a tough schedule and I wouldn’t consider them true contenders in the AFC.

Update: After some re-analysis of the other teams in the AFC South, the division is way more wide open than I originally thought and, while the Texans are still the best team, it is not by a wide margin and they have by far the toughest schedules in the division.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC South

Dallas Cowboys 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

In 2024, the Cowboys fell to a 7-10 record, after going 12-5 the previous season. At first glance, it’s easy to blame injuries to key players as the culprit. In some order, the Cowboys’ most important players are quarterback Dak Prescott, top wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, top edge defender Micah Parsons, and top cornerback Da’Ron Bland. Bland got hurt before the season started and didn’t make his debut until week 12 as a result. Parsons got hurt in week 4 and missed 4 games, not returning until week 10. By the time Parsons and Bland returned, Prescott had suffered a season-ending injury in week 9 that cost him the final 9 games of the season. Lamb played most of the season, only missing two games, but he was limited by injury for much of the year and had a down year by his standards as a result. 

If all four are healthy all season in 2025, this will be a different team, but it’s also unrealistic to expect any four players to all remain injury free for a full season. The Cowboys should get more out of those four in total in 2025 than they did in 2024, but the Cowboys have a pretty top-heavy roster as a result of recent poor drafting and a lack of money spent in free agency, so a lack of depth when injuries knock out any of their top players is a significant concern.

The Cowboys do rank 11th in average annual value of their roster, which correlates heavily with winning percentage, but 17.9% of their average annual value is quarterback Dak Prescott, whose 60 million dollar annual salary makes him the highest paid quarterback in the league by 5 million annually. Prescott’s cap hit is 50.518 million for the 2025 season, about 18.1% of the total cap, and the only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers. 

Prescott is an important part of this team, but he isn’t an elite level quarterback, completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 213 touchdowns, and 98 interceptions in nine seasons in the league, good for a QB rating of 98.1 that ranks 11th in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts over the past nine seasons, one spot behind Kirk Cousins. With Prescott making as much as he does, it’s very hard for the Cowboys to surround him with enough talent for the team to compete at the highest level. Prescott is now heading into his age 32 season, so he likely is what he is at this stage of his career and could even start declining soon. His athleticism has already declined noticeably, as he went from averaging 5.07 YPC on 259 carries in his first five seasons in the league to 3.88 YPC on 161 carries over the past four seasons and another significant leg injury won’t help matters.

Prescott has also become increasingly injury prone, missing at least five games due to injury in three of the past five seasons, with 25 games total missed during that stretch. The Cowboys have previously had a solid backup in Cooper Rush to fall back on and he completed 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions (83.8 QB rating) in 14 starts across his Cowboys career (9-5 record), but he signed with the Ravens this off-season and was replaced via trade with Joe Milton. 

Milton has a higher upside than Rush and he showed that upside in his one start with the Patriots last season, completing 22 of 29 for 241 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions, but that came in a meaningless game against a Bills team that already had their playoff seed locked in and that played backups as a result, so that game isn’t enough for Milton to prove he should have gone higher than the 2024 6th round pick he was a year ago. At the very least, he gives the Cowboys a much lower floor than Rush would have if he has to step in for Prescott in case of injury.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Cowboys actually had a better record without Prescott (4-5) than with him last season (3-5), not because they were actually a better team without him, but because their defense was healthy, Cooper Rush played decently, and their running game was significantly better once they gave the feature back job to Rico Dowdle, who rushed for 833 yards and 2 touchdowns on 176 carries (4.73 YPC) in the Cowboys’ final 10 games, after rushing for 246 yards and no touchdowns on 59 carries (4.17 YPC) prior to that. 

We already know that Rush is gone and that their defense isn’t guaranteed to be as healthy in 2025 as they were down the stretch last season, but the Cowboys also opted not to retain Dowdle this off-season and, in his absence, they have one of the worst running back rooms in the NFL. The Cowboys’ completely revamped their running back room this off-season, not bringing any running back who had more than 17 carries last season and adding underwhelming veterans Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders in addition to fifth round pick Jaydon Blue and seventh round pick Phil Mafah. 

Williams, a 2021 2nd round pick, showed promise early in his career, averaging 4.43 YPC across 250 carries in the first 21 games of his career, but he tore his ACL midway through his second season in the league and hasn’t looked the same since, averaging just 3.62 YPC across 356 carries in 33 games since returning. Williams is still young, in his age 25 season, so he could still have some potential and, at the very least, he should be a useful pass catcher out of the backfield, with 158 catches in 54 career games and a career 1.23 yards per route run average, but he’s still an underwhelming option overall.

Sanders is also a former second round pick, drafted in 2019. He had an impressive start to his career with the Eagles, rushing for 3,708 yards and 20 touchdowns on 739 carries (5.02 YPC) in his first four seasons in the league, but he couldn’t replicate his success on a much worse offense in Carolina over the past two seasons, averaging 3.46 YPC on 184 carries. Sanders may fare better now with the Cowboys, but he’s going on three years removed from his last productive season and, while the Cowboys’ offensive situation might be better than Carolina’s, it’s not on the same level as Philadelphia’s was when Sanders was at his best. Unlike Williams, he is not a useful pass catcher, with a career 0.88 yards per route run average. Williams will likely be the nominal lead back to start the season, with Sanders as the backup and the rookies having potential to earn roles, even as relatively late picks, in an overall underwhelming position group.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Ceedee Lamb had a down year by his standards last season due to injuries that he played through. He still had a 101/1194/6 slash line with 2.27 yards per route run on 152 targets in 15 games, but that was a far cry from 2023, when he had a 135/1749/12 slash line and 2.78 yards per route run on 181 targets. Lamb is still only going into his age 26 season and has surpassed two yards per route run and 1,100 total receiving yards in four straight seasons, so, assuming he is healthier, he has as much potential as any receiver in the league going into 2025.

The Cowboys also added George Pickens via trade this off-season, their biggest off-season addition by far and a much needed #2 receiver opposite Lamb. Pickens, a 2022 2nd round pick who is only heading into his age 24 season, has posted slash lines of 52/801/4 on 84 targets, 63/1140/5 on 106 targets, and 59/900/3 on 103 targets in three seasons in the league, with a career 1.83 yards per route run average, despite inconsistent quarterback play. His best attribute is his deep ball ability, as he has caught 42 of 81 targets 20+ yards downfield in his career, turning them into 1,379 yards and 6 touchdowns, compared to just 3 interceptions. He might not have a high volume role in Dallas’ offense opposite Lamb, but he gives this offense another dimension downfield and will help free up space for Lamb underneath.

Pickens will be a huge upgrade over Jalen Tolbert, who finished second on the team with a 49/610/7 slash line last season on 79 targets and was pretty inefficient, with a below average 1.10 yards per route run. Tolbert will likely be the Cowboys’ #3 wide receiver this season and will almost definitely have a much smaller target total. Tolbert was a third round pick in 2022 and, only going into his age 26 season, he may have some untapped potential, but he has only averaged 1.03 yards per route run in his career and there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025 than he was in 2024. Even as a #3 receiver, he is an underwhelming option, but the Cowboys don’t have a better one and having him as the #3 is a lot better than having him as the #2.

Behind their top-3, the Cowboys’ top reserves are likely to be KaVontae Turpin and Jonathan Mingo. Turpin has a career 1.78 yards per route run average, including 2.06 in 2024, but he is a 5-9 153 pound 2022 undrafted free agent who is best as a situational player, which is all he will be in 2025. Jonathan Mingo, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2023 by the Panthers and was acquired by the Cowboys for a fourth round pick at last year’s deadline when they thought they were buying low, but he continued showing nothing in his new home and has averaged just 0.72 yards per route run across his two seasons in the league. He may theoretically still have some untapped upside, but it’s also very possible the Cowboys wasted a mid-round draft pick trying to turn his career around. He might be closer to being left off the final roster in 2025 than cracking the Cowboys’ top-3 wide receivers.

Given the state of the Cowboys wide receiver group last season, tight end Jake Ferguson was second on the team with 86 targets last season and he too was underwhelming, finishing with just a 59/494/0 slash line and 1.27 yards per route run. The 2022 4th round pick will likely see a smaller target share this season and could have some bounce back potential as well. He flashed some promise in a limited role as a rookie, with a 19/174/2 slash line on 22 targets and 1.66 yards per route run, and seemed to break out as the starter in his second season in the league in 2024, turning 102 targets into a 71/761/5 slash line and 1.46 yards per route run, before he took a big step backwards last season, with could have had something to do with an injury he suffered early in the season and played through.

Behind Ferguson, the Cowboys have 2023 2nd round pick Luke Schoonmaker, who took on a bigger role in the passing game in 2024 with Ferguson struggling, going from 369 snaps to 411 snaps, a 8/65/2 slash line to a 27/241/1 slash line, and a 0.62 yards per route run average to a 1.35 yards per route run average. Schoonmaker was originally drafted to be a future starter before Ferguson broke out and, barring Ferguson missing significant time, he will likely remain a only a solid #2 tight end for at least another season, rather than a true 1b to Ferguson’s 1a. With Lamb and Ferguson likely bouncing back from injury plagued down seasons in 2024 and George Pickens being added, the Cowboys’ receiving corps has a clear path to being a lot better in 2025.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One of the Cowboys’ best players for years has been right guard Zack Martin, but the likely future Hall of Famer opted to retire this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 35 season. Martin was not nearly what he used to be last season, with just a 65.6 PFF grade in 10 starts, but he could still be missed. The Cowboys used their first round pick to replace him, taking Alabama’s Tyler Booker, who appears to be a massive reach as the 12th overall pick. 

Booker had by far the lowest relative athletic score of any player drafted in the first two rounds and was not a particularly dominant college player either, ranking 126th among guards on PFF in 2024 and 28th in 2023. Between his lack of athleticism and lack of elite tape, Booker only earned a second round grade from PFF and he’s unlikely to be a significant upgrade on Martin as a rookie, even with Martin not anywhere near his best last season.

Booker is the second straight first round pick the Cowboys have used on their offensive line, taking left tackle Tyler Guyton in last year’s draft and Guyton’s career has not gotten off to a good start, as he finished his rookie year with a terrible 49.4 PFF grade, in large part due to his 18 penalties, tied for second most in the NFL. He has the upside to be a lot better in his second season in the league, but he has a long way to go to even be an average starting left tackle and he could easily continue struggling.

The Cowboys also used a first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on an offensive lineman, Tyler Smith, and at least that pick has worked out. Smith has finished with PFF grades of 71.4, 72.9, and 75.0 in three seasons in the league, while making 47 total starts, with 29 coming at left guard and 18 coming at left tackle. The Cowboys prefer him at left guard, where he has been slightly better in his career, but his ability to move out to left tackle in a pinch is an added bonus.

Center Cooper Beebe is not a former first round pick, but he is also a young, recent draft pick, selected in the third round in 2024. Beebe started all but one game as a rookie and, while he wasn’t spectacular, he held his own, with a PFF grade of 65.4. Now going into his second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward and, at the very least, he should continue being at least a capable starter. 

Right tackle Terence Steele is the veteran of the bunch, going into his sixth season in the league. Steele wasn’t drafted in 2020, but has still made 74 starts in five seasons in the league. He’s been inconsistent, finishing in the 50s on PFF twice (2020, 2023), in the 60s twice (2021, and 2024), with a career best 73.9 PFF grade coming in 2022. It’s tough to know what to expect from him in 2025, but he has generally averaged out as a solid starter and, still going into his age 28 season, he’s still in the prime of his career, so there is at least a good chance he’ll be a solid starter.

The Cowboys’ top reserves last season were Brock Hoffman and TJ Bass, who had PFF grades of 66.3 and 63.0 respectively across 515 snaps and 315 snaps respectively, primarily at guard, with Hoffman showing the ability to also play center if needed. Hoffman and Bass are recent undrafted free agents, 2022 and 2023 respectively, and last season was the first time either had finished above 60 on PFF in their careers, so they could struggle if forced into significant action, but they’re not bad reserve options. The Cowboys also added 2021 undrafted free agent Robert Jones in free agency and he has mostly been a marginal starter in 29 starts over the past three seasons. He will also provide depth on the interior and might be a better option than Hoffman or Bass because of his added experience.

At tackle, the top reserve option is likely Asim Richards, a 2023 5th round pick who has played 221 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. He’s an underwhelming option, but he is probably the best they have unless 6th round rookie Ajani Cornelius can exceed expectations in his first season in the league. Overall, this looks like an underwhelming offensive line, but they at least have some young players with potential, the majority of whom are recent high draft picks.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Cowboys were without top edge defender Micah Parsons for four games last season, which was a big absence. A capable, but unspectacular run stopper who dominates as a pass rusher, Parsons has totaled 52.5 sacks, 64 hits, and a 19.0% pressure rate in 63 career games, including 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate in just 13 games last season, leading to him receiving overall PFF grades of 89.8, 91.6, 92.7, and 90.0 in four seasons in the league, despite his middling play against the run. 

Parsons is still only in his age 26 season, so he should remain one of the top defensive players in the league for years to come and seems likely to win a Defensive Player of the Year Award at some point, having finished in the top-3 in DPOY voting in all three healthy seasons in the league. Having him healthy for all or most of the season would be a boost for this defense and it seems likely that will happen, as he had only missed one game in his career prior to last season.

The rest of the edge defender group is much more of a question mark. For the first three seasons of his career, Parsons had the talented DeMarcus Lawrence opposite him, but he missed all but four games last season, leaving an uninspiring group behind in his absence, and then he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season. The Cowboys also didn’t retain free agent Chauncey Golston, hybrid edge defender/interior defender who played 790 snaps last season and was decent with a 65.3 PFF grade, nor did they retain Carl Lawson, a pure edge player who had a mediocre 59.7 PFF grade across 402 snaps. 

To replace them, the Cowboys signed veteran Dante Fowler, used a second round pick on Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku, and are hoping to get more out of 2022 2nd round pick Sam Williams, who missed all of last season with injury, and 2024 2nd round pick Marshawn Kneeland, who was limited to 255 snaps in 11 games by injury and struggled with a 50.8 PFF grade as a rookie last season. Williams probably has the most upside of the bunch if he is past his injury, as he flashed potential with PFF grades of 70.9 and 68.5 on snap counts of 274 and 306 in his first two seasons in the league before missing last season, totaling 8.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate despite a very limited role, though his recent injury history and his relative lack of experience are still concerns. 

Ezeiruaku and Kneeland also have upside, but haven’t proven anything at the NFL level yet, with Ezeiruaku being a rookie and Kneeland being a second player who struggled in an injury plagued rookie season. The veteran Fowler has had some success in his career, with 37.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate in 95 games over the past seven seasons combined, but he has been inconsistent and he now heads into his age 31 season, so it is hard to depend on him to play at an above average level. 

Fowler did have 10.5 sacks last season with the Commanders, but his peripheral pass rush numbers weren’t as good, as he had just 4 hits and a 12.9% pressure rate, and he struggled against the run, leading to just a 62.1 PFF grade overall across 563 snaps. Getting a healthier season out of Parsons will be a boost for this defense and Parsons elevates the overall grade of this position group significantly by himself, but the rest of the group lacks any clear above average players.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Cowboys made the smart decision this off-season to keep one of their best defensive players Osa Odighizuwa on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal, making him only the 16th highest paid interior defender in the league and notably paying him significantly less than the less-proven Milton Williams (4-year, 104 million) got from the Patriots as a free agent this off-season. Odighizuwa almost definitely would have surpassed Williams’ contract had he been allowed to hit the open market, so the Cowboys got a relatively bargain by locking up Odighizuwa ahead of free agency. 

Odighizuwa consistently struggles against the run, finishing below 60 on PFF in run grade in three of four seasons in the league, including a 50.8 run defense grade last season, but he has also exceeded 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all four seasons, including three straight seasons above 70. In total, he has accumulated 13.5 sacks, 39 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 67 career games, including 11.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 51 games over the past three seasons and 4.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate in 17 games last season. 

Odighizuwa’s run struggles have led to him finishing above 70 in overall grade just once in four seasons in the league, with a 81.4 overall PFF grade in 2023 in his one season above 60 against the run, but he’s still a valuable player because of his effectiveness as a pass rusher and, only in his age 27 season, having missed just one game due to injury in his career, I would expect him to remain a high level interior pass rusher for at least a few more years.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys also lack depth at the interior defender position, even more than they do on the edge. The Cowboys used a first round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Mazi Smith, but he has been a massive disappointment, finishing with PFF grades of 49.8 and 34.8 across snap counts of 304 and 524 over his first two seasons in the league. He still has upside, only going into his age 24 season, but he would have to take a big step forward to even be an average starting caliber player in 2025, which is far from a guarantee.

Smith is likely locked into a starting role though, because the alternatives are mediocre veteran Solomon Thomas, 2024 7th round pick Justin Rogers, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and a pair of 7th round picks from this year’s draft Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote. Thomas will likely replace Chauncey Golston as a situational pass rusher, but he is a big downgrade, finishing below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, struggling mightily against the run, but not excelling as a pass rusher either, with 18.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 115 career games. 

Now going into his age 30 season, Thomas is unlikely to be better in 2025 and could be even worse if he starts to decline due to his age. The Cowboys interior defender group is similar to their edge defender group in that they have one top player who plays at a much higher level than the rest of the bunch, but that top player Odighizuwa is not nearly as good as Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ other interior defender options are also significantly worse than the Cowboys’ other edge defender options.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Cowboys’ top linebacker last season was Eric Kendricks, who had a 75.2 PFF grade across 918 snaps, but Kendricks was heading into his age 33 season in 2025 and the Cowboys opted not to retain him this off-season. Instead, he will be replaced by trade acquisition Kenneth Murray, who figures to be a clear downgrade. Murray was a first round pick in 2020 and has played 765 snaps per season in his career, but he has consistently struggled, with PFF grades below 60 in all five seasons, including a 45.9 PFF grade across 815 snaps in 2024. Murray is already in his age 27 season, so he probably is who he is at this stage of his career and it’s unlikely he will suddenly show why he was a first round pick, now in his sixth season in the league.

The Cowboys’ second best linebacker last season was DeMarvion Overshown, who had a 61.1 PFF grade across 708 snaps in 13 games, before a brutal season ending knee injury. Overshown, a 2023 3rd round pick, also missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury and now his 2025 season seems in doubt after his latest injury. He could still return mid-season, but that’s far from a guarantee and he might not be the same player immediately upon his return. In Overshown’s absence, the Cowboys will probably start Marist Liufau, a 2024 3rd round pick who started as a rookie in Overshown’s absence down the stretch last season, struggling with a 49.4 PFF grade across 520 snaps. 

Liufau could be better in his second season in the league, but has a long way to go to even be an average starter. If the Cowboys choose to bench Liufau, their other options are Damone Clark, Jack Sanborn, and Shemar James. A 2022 5th round pick, Clark started in 2023 and did a decent job, with a 61.8 PFF grade across 782 snaps, while also playing pretty well in limited roles in 2022 and 2024, with PFF grades of 65.5 and 68.2 respectively on snap counts of 398 and 163 respectively, so he would probably do a better job than Liufau, but the Cowboys seemed hesitant to use Clark last season, even after Overshown got hurt, so Liufau is probably the favorite over him for the starting job. 

Jack Sanborn, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who has been decent as a reserve in his career, but has only played 977 snaps total in three seasons in the league, while Shemar James is just a fifth round rookie. The Cowboys don’t have bad depth options at least, but their likely starting linebacker duo of Kenneth Murray and Marist Liufau is very underwhelming and, even if DeMarvion Overshown is able to play next season, he might not be 100% upon his return.

Grade: C

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Cowboys should get a healthier year out of cornerback Daron Bland, who missed all but the final seven games of last season due to an injury he suffered before the season started. Bland was one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2023, with a 90.4 PFF grade and, even if he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, the 2022 5th round pick also had a 71.9 PFF grade across 597 snaps in a part-time role as a rookie and a 70.1 PFF grade across 436 snaps after returning from injury last season, so he comes with a pretty high floor, in addition to having a huge ceiling if he can regain his 2023 form. Only in his age 26 season, he is one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

Unfortunately, the rest of this cornerback depth chart is a big problem. Jourdan Lewis had a 71.7 PFF grade across 871 snaps last season, but was not retained in free agency. Trevon Diggs struggled with a 56.6 PFF grade across 683 snaps last season and now his 2025 season is in question due to knee surgery. Diggs led the NFL with 17 interceptions from 2020-2022, the first three seasons of his career, but he also gave up a lot of big plays and only had PFF grades of 62.7, 59.6, and 66.9 as a result, and then he missed almost all of 2023 with a knee injury before struggled in 2024 and reaggravating his knee down the stretch. Even if he can play some or all of the 2025 season, I don’t expect a big year out of him.

In the absence of Lewis and potentially Diggs, the Cowboys’ other cornerbacks options are holdovers Caelen Carson, Israel Mukuamu, Josh Butler, and Andrew Booth, who all struggled mightily in limited roles last season and who would almost definitely struggle in a bigger role in 2025, as well as third round rookie Shavon Revel and former first round pick bust Kaiir Elam, who the Cowboys took a flier on via trade with the Bills this off-season. 

Carson was a 5th round pick in 2024 and struggled mightily with a 39.7 PFF grade across 252 snaps as a rookie. Mukuamu is a 2021 6th round pick who has played just 452 snaps in four seasons in the league, including a career high 201 last season, when he had a 48.5 PFF grade. Butler is a 2023 undrafted free agent who had a 49.9 PFF grade in the first 160 snaps of his career last season. Andrew Booth was a second round pick by the Vikings in 2024, but has been limited to 374 snaps in three seasons due to a combination of injury and poor performance and last season he had a 35.6 PFF grade across 116 snaps.

Revel is probably the best option of the bunch, as he could have been a first round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL during his final collegiate season, but between the knee injury he is returning from and the fact that he’s a rookie, he is a shaky option for the Cowboys in 2025. Elam had his moments last season with a 70.2 PFF grade across 305 snaps, but he has largely been unable to crack the Bills depth chart in three seasons in the league, despite being a high draft pick, playing 939 snaps in total in three seasons in the league, and he struggled in both 2022 and 2023, with PFF grades of 56.7 and 58.8, before showing some signs of life in 2024. Only in his age 24 season, he was a worthwhile flier for the Cowboys to take this off-season, but it’s hard to depend on him as a starter in 2025.

Fortunately, the Cowboys do have a better situation at safety. Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker both made all 17 starts last season and had decent PFF grades at 62.2 and 65.3 respectively. That was actually a down year for both players. For Wilson, it was the lowest grade of the 2019 6th round pick’s 6-year career. In 2020, 2022, and 2023, which were the other seasons in his career in which he made 10 or more starts, he finished with PFF grades of 72.0, 71.3, and 66.2 respectively. Wilson is now going into his age 30 season, so his best days could be behind him, but he has a good chance to at least remain a capable starter and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he bounced back somewhat from last year’s down season, as he isn’t totally over the hill yet.

For Hooker, last season was his lowest graded season that wasn’t significantly affected by injury. Hooker was very injury prone early in his career, as the 2017 1st round pick missed 28 games in his first four seasons, but he has only missed four over the past four seasons and he had PFF grades of 70.4, 76.2 and 77.4 in 2021, 2022 and 2023, before struggling by his standards in 2024. Hooker is still only in his age 29 season, so he has a better chance to bounce back than Wilson, though his injury history is at least worth noting, even if it hasn’t really been an issue for him lately.

The Cowboys also have some promising reserve options at safety. Juanyeh Thomas, a 2022 undrafted free agent, flashed a lot of potential with a 81.1 PFF grade across 192 snaps in 2023, before falling to a 56.1 PFF grade and only playing 93 snaps last season. He’s very inexperienced and is a former undrafted free agent, but there may still be some upside there. Markquese Bell is also a 2022 undrafted free agent. He was weirdly converted from an impressive coverage linebacker in 2023, when he had a 76.8 PFF grade across 701 snaps, to an underwhelming, lightly used reserve safety in 2024, when he had a 51.6 PFF grade across 34 snaps. Linebacker is probably still his best position, but the Cowboys seem committed to keeping him at safety and it’s possible he has some upside there too. The Cowboys may use three safeties together more frequently in 2025 than they did in 2024 to try to mask their lack of depth at cornerback.

Grade: B

Kickers

The Cowboys at least have one of the best kickers in the league, as Brandon Aubrey has finished 5th and 9th among kickers with 8.82 points above average and 7.06 points above average in two seasons in the league. Only four kickers have more points above average over the past two seasons combined. He was an old rookie and is already in his age 30 season, but kickers usually age pretty well and he figures to continue being one of the best kickers in the league for years to come.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Cowboys should get more out of their four most important players this season, Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, Micah Parsons, and Daron Bland, who all had their 2024 seasons significantly impacted by injury. The Cowboys also added George Pickens in a trade with the Cowboys to give their offense a big boost. Based on that, you might be expecting the Cowboys to take a big step forward in 2025 and be a playoff team again. That is a possibility, but it doesn’t seem likely for a couple reasons.

For one, the Cowboys were even worse than their 7-10 record suggested last season, ranking 28th in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential, so they are starting from a lower base point than most realize. Additionally, it’s unlikely that all four of the Cowboys most important players all stay healthy all season this year and this is a top heavy roster that significantly lacks depth at several positions. This isn’t a bad roster, but I think when all is said and done, there will be at least seven teams better than them in the NFC and they will be left on the outside looking in at a playoff spot as a result.

Update: The Cowboys’ already slim playoff chances have further taken a hit from the surprise Micah Parsons trade.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC East

Minnesota Vikings 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Quarterback

The Vikings were the NFL’s surprise team last season. In 2023, the Vikings went just 7-10 and then in the following off-season they lost quarterback Kirk Cousins to free agency and then the quarterback they drafted to replace him, JJ McCarthy, suffered a season-ending injury before the season even began. It didn’t seem like the Vikings were about to have the season they had, but they went on to finish 14-3, led by quarterback Sam Darnold, a journeyman and former bust of a 2018 3rd overall pick, who finally showed why he was taken so high with a breakout campaign in his seventh season in the league. In terms of yards per play differential, the Vikings ranked 9th at +0.31 and in first down rate differential they ranked 6th at +2.72%.

In some ways, the Vikings’ surprise 2024 season shouldn’t have been that surprising. The Vikings did not have an impressive record in 2023, but they were better than their record suggested, as they finished positive in both first down rate differential (+1.06%) and yards per play differential (+0.35). That was despite Kirk Cousins tearing his achilles and missing the final nine games of the season. The Vikings had a sneaky good roster around the quarterback and, when Sam Darnold had his breakout year, it was the catalyst this team needed to be among the best teams in the league in 2024.

Unfortunately, the Vikings’ season last year ended with a disappointing first round exit in the post-season, when Sam Darnold got exposed against a Rams team that was one of the hottest in the league down the stretch and came the closest of any team in the post-season to beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles. With Darnold hitting free agency this off-season, the Vikings opted not to retain him, letting him sign with the Seahawks on a 3-year, 100.5 million dollar deal, deciding instead to stay the course with JJ McCarthy as their long-term franchise quarterback. 

The Vikings then used the money they saved by not paying Darnold to be aggressive upgrading the rest of their roster in free agency, which likely was also the original plan when the Vikings opted to draft McCarthy, as having a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal gives a team the flexibility needed to build up the rest of their roster. In terms of average annual value of their roster, which correlates heavily with winning percentage, the Vikings rank 7th, despite having a cheap quarterback on a rookie deal.

Many think the Vikings will take a step back in 2025, as their over/under is only set at 8.5 wins. The Vikings do have a very tough schedule, but the rest of their roster is significantly better than it was last season, going from a good supporting cast to among the best in the NFL, and it’s very possible that Darnold’s success last will prove to largely be the result of the scheme and supporting talent around him that he had last season, which now will benefit the young McCarthy instead. McCarthy obviously gives them a lower floor than what Darnold gave them last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play similarly well and he probably possesses a higher upside than Darnold does as well.

For the Vikings part, they seem very confident in their young quarterback and his recovery from injury. The Vikings could have opted to either keep Darnold for at least another year or add veteran competition for McCarthy like Aaron Rodgers or at least add a high end backup like Joe Flacco, but instead the biggest quarterback addition they made this off-season was sending a draft pick swap to the Seattle for Sam Howell, a 2022 5th round pick who has a career 77.5 QB rating in 18 career starts. Time will tell if the Vikings made the right decision not adding a better quarterback this off-season, but McCarthy at the very least gives the Vikings a high upside at the quarterback position, while allowing the Vikings to focus their cap space elsewhere in free agency this off-season.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The area the Vikings spent the most resources on this off-season was their offensive line, particularly the interior of their offensive line, which proved to be a significant issue in the Vikings’ playoff loss to the Rams last season. Four players made starts for the Vikings on the interior of their offensive line last season, center Garrett Bradbury, who had a 62.1 PFF grade in 17 starts, left guard Blake Brandel, who had a 55.2 PFF grade in 17 starts, and right guards Ed Ingram and Dalton Risner, who had PFF grades of 54.0 and 67.0 in nine starts and eight starts respectively.

Of those four, only Brandel remains on the roster for 2025 and he will be a backup after all of the Vikings’ off-season additions on the interior of their offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries were added on contracts worth 18 million over 2 years and 87.72 million over 5 years respectively and then the Vikings further added to the interior of their offensive line in the draft, using their first round pick on Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson, who figures to start at left guard. Jackson has the potential to be a solid starter as a rookie and an above average starter long-term.

Ryan Kelly has consistently pretty been an above average center throughout his career, making 121 starts in nine seasons since being a first round pick in 2016, finishing above 60 on PFF in all but one season, with four seasons above 70, including a career best 77.2 PFF grade as recently as 2023. Kelly is going into his age 32 season though, so his best days are probably behind him and, in fact, he did decline to a 67.0 PFF grade in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him further decline in 2025, but even if he does, there is a good chance he remains at least a capable starter and a likely upgrade over Garrett Bradbury, who was only a marginal starter last season.

Will Fries, on the other hand, is not nearly as experienced, but he’s a lot younger and has a lot higher upside. A 7th round pick in 2021, Fries received PFF grades of 58.4 and 61.2 in his first two seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023 respectively (26 combined starts), but seemed to be on his way to a breakout season in 2024, with a 86.9 PFF grade through five games, before suffering a season ending leg injury. It’s a small sample size for a player who was mediocre at best across a larger sample size the previous two seasons and it’s possible he won’t be the same right away after injury anyway, so Fries comes with a lot of risk, but the upside is obviously there if he can get past his injury and play even close to as well in 2025 as he did at the start of 2024. It also wouldn’t be hard for Fries to be an upgrade over what the Vikings had at guard last season, even if he’s not at his best.

The Vikings could also get better play at tackle in 2025 if left tackle Christian Darrisaw is able to return to form after a season ending torn ACL he suffered seven games into the 2024 season. Darrisaw had a 81.4 PFF grade last season before going down and had PFF grades of 90.3 and 82.4 in 2022 and 2023 as well, so he’s one of the best left tackles in the league when healthy, and he’s only in his age 26 season, so he should be very much in the prime of his career. The Vikings traded for Cam Robinson to replace him mid-season, but he only had a 60.5 PFF grade in 10 starts, so he was an obvious downgrade. 

When Darrisaw is healthy, he forms a dominant tackle duo with right tackle Brian O’Neill, who has PFF grades of 78.0, 73.4, 82.7, 74.5, and 80.8 over the past five seasons, while missing just four games due to injury over that stretch. He is going into his age 30 season in 2025, so he could start declining soon, but even if his decline starts in 2025, he will almost definitely remain an above average right tackle and his upside is among the best right tackles in the league.

With Cam Robinson not being retained as a free agent, the Vikings would turn to free agent acquisition Justin Skule if either of their tackles missed time with injury. Skule, a 2019 6th round pick, has only made 17 starts in six seasons in the league, but he has generally been at least solid in the three seasons in which he has made starts in his career, with a 62.3 PFF grade in eight starts in 2019, a 45.4 PFF grade in 4 starts in 2020, and a 69.2 PFF grade in 5 starts last season, though he would obviously be a big downgrade if forced to start for an extended period of time. Blake Brandel, meanwhile, will be the primary reserve on the interior and he has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in the league since being selected in the 6th round in 2020, so he’s a very underwhelming reserve option. Depth is a concern, but the Vikings have the potential to have one of the best starting five offensive lines in the league next season.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The strength of the Vikings’ offense last season was their receiving corps, led by Justin Jefferson, who is one of the top wide receivers in the league. Jefferson finished last season with a 103/1533/10 slash line, a 87.2 PFF grade, and 2.50 yards per route run, which actually constituted a down year for him, as he had finished above 90 in PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, while exceeding his 2.50 yards per route run average in all four seasons. In total, Jefferson has averaged a 109/1641/9 slash line per 17 games in his career, while missing just seven games total in five seasons in the league. Jefferson is still only going into his age 26 season and his floor and his ceiling are both as high as any wide receiver in the league.

Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ #2 receiver, is not on the same level, but he’s a high-end #2 wide receiver. The 2023 1st round pick had a 70/911/10 slash line with 1.50 yards per route run and a 68.6 PFF grade as a rookie and a 63/875/9 slash line with 1.74 yards per route run and a 73.2 PFF grade last season. In the seven games in his career he has played without Justin Jefferson opposite him, he has 35 catches for 437 yards and 4 touchdowns, which extrapolates to a 85/1061/7 slash line over 17 games. He’s also only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to get even better. 

The Vikings also have a great receiving tight end in TJ Hockenson. Hockenson only made his debut in week 9 and played in just 10 games last season, as a result of a torn ACL that he suffered late in the 2023 season, and he probably wasn’t quite at 100%. He still finished with a 41/455/0 slash line and 1.52 yards per route run in that limited action, which extrapolates to a 70/774/0 slash line over 17 games. Hockenson will likely be back to full strength in 2025, only in his age 28 season, another year removed from the injury, and, in his last two seasons before the injury, Hockenson had slash lines of 86/914/6 and 95/960/5 on yards per route run averages of 1.60 and 1.89 respectively. He figures to be among the best receiving tight ends in the league in 2025.

With Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson as their top receiving options, the Vikings don’t need much else from the rest of their receiving corps, but their depth isn’t bad either. Backup tight end Josh Oliver did a decent job in Hockenson’s absence last season, finishing the season with a 1.39 yards per route run average, after averaging 1.50 yards per route run in 2023. Oliver, a 2019 3rd round pick, has always been a great blocker, but he has also developed into a decent receiving option over the past two seasons and, as a result, he has PFF grades of 75.1 and 75.7 on snap counts of 467 and 553 over those two seasons respectively. He won’t be needed for a big role as long as Hockenson is healthy, but he is a high end #2 tight end who can fill in decently as the starter if needed.

Jalen Nailor was underwhelming as the #3 receiver last season, averaging 1.07 yards per route run with a 28/414/6 slash line, but his career average of 1.32 yards per route run in three seasons since being selected in the 6th round in 2022 isn’t bad and the Vikings added competition for him this off-season, using a third round pick on Maryland’s Tai Felton and taking a flier on former 2021 2nd round pick Rondale Moore, who had yards per route run averages of 1.64 and 1.47 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, before falling to 0.73 in 2023 and then missing all of 2024 with injury. He’s not the most reliable option, but, still only going into his age 25 season, he was a worthwhile flier for the Vikings to take this off-season. Led by one of the best receiving trios in the league, the Vikings’ receiving corps is the strength of an overall talented roster.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Vikings also had a strong running game last season, with their top-2 running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers averaging 4.46 YPC and 4.64 YPC respectively across 255 carries and 64 carries respectively, despite underwhelming play on the interior of the Vikings’ offensive line. Akers wasn’t brought back this off-season, while Jones is heading into his age 31 season with 1,755 career touches, which makes him a strong candidate to drop off significantly, but the Vikings replaced Cam Akers with Jordan Mason, who figures to be an upgrade and who figures to be capable of taken more of the load away from Aaron Jones, who could remain effective even as he ages if he plays a lesser role.

In total, Aaron Jones has rushed for 7,078 yards and 50 touchdowns on 1432 carries (4.94 YPC) in eight seasons in the league. He’s also a very useful pass catcher, with an average 48/370/3 slash line per 17 games and 1.25 yards per route run averaged for his career. He will remain the Vikings’ primary passing down back because Jordan Mason has never shown any potential in that aspect, averaging just 0.56 yards per route run in his career. 

Mason went undrafted in 2022, but he has rushed for 1,253 yards and 7 touchdowns on 236 carries in his career (5.31 YPC), with 153 carries, 789 yards (5.16 YPC), and 3 touchdowns coming last season in 12 games, including six starts when he replaced the injured Christian McCaffrey as the lead back in San Francisco. His skill set also compliments Jones’ skill set well, as he is a bigger, more physical back at 5-11 223, while Jones is a smaller, speedier back at 5-9 208. I expect him to be a 1b to Jones’ 1a, with both running backs rotating heavily. 

If either Jones or Mason miss time with injury, the other would likely take on a feature back role, with third string running back Ty Chandler mixing in for a few touches here and there. Chandler began last season as the #2 back, but only averaged 3.25 YPC on 56 carries, leading to the Vikings acquiring Cam Akers mid-season to play ahead of him. Chandler, a 2022 5th round pick, has averaged just 4.04 YPC on 164 carries in three seasons in the league, while averaging 1.07 yards per route run as a receiver. He’s not a bad #3 running back, but the Vikings will almost definitely try to avoid using him in a significant role, even if one of their top-2 backs are injured. Led by a talented duo of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, this is a solid backfield.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Along with their offensive line, the interior defender position is another spot where the Vikings spent significant money this off-season. This was much needed because all four of the Vikings’ top-4 interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season finished with PFF grades below 60. Harrison Phillips (672 snaps), Jonathan Bullard (571 snaps), Jerry Tillery (467 snaps), and Jihad Ward (467 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 58.8, 56.1, 51.6, and 51.5 respectively.

To try to upgrade this position group in a big way, the Vikings handed out contracts worth 51 million over 3 years and 30 million over 2 years respectively to Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Both Allen and Hargrave have had some big years, but both are on the wrong side of 30, going into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively, and both are coming off injury plagued 2024 seasons, limited to 300 snaps in eight games and 104 snaps in three games respectively.

Allen had mostly been durable throughout his career prior to last season, missing just three total games in the previous six seasons combined, despite averaging 49.5 snaps per game, so it seems unlikely he will miss significant time with injury again in 2025. However, Allen also had a down year in 2024 even when on the field, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade as a pass rusher and averaging just a 8.9% pressure rate, which are not bad, but those are disappointing numbers for him, as he had surpassed 75 in PFF pass rush grade in each of the previous four seasons, while totaling 24 sacks, 50 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 65 games. 

Allen has also never been a good run defender and his run defense has gotten even worse in the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 37.9 and 41.3 against the run in 2023 and 2024 respectively, so the Vikings will need Allen to bounce back as a pass rusher to compensate for his lack of run defense. He’s not totally over the hill though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he did bounce back at least somewhat if he can stay healthy. Hargrave is also a much better pass rusher than run defender, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in each of the past five seasons, while totaling 45.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 130 career games, including 35 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 83 games over the past six seasons. 

Hargrave still had a 12.7% pressure rate in very limited action last season before getting hurt and he had only missed four total games due to injury in eight seasons in the league prior to last season, so he’s not an injury prone player, but now being another year older and coming off of a significant injury, it’s fair to wonder if he will decline in 2025. Both Allen and Hargrave come with risks, but it wouldn’t be hard for them to be better than the players they are replacing in Minnesota.

Of the Vikings’ top-4 interior defenders last season, only Harrison Phillips returns and he was probably the best of them by default. He also has had better years in the past and, only in his age 29 season, he has some bounce back potential. He’s a better run defender than Allen or Hargrave, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense in three straight seasons prior to last season, including a pair of seasons over 70, but he only has a 5.6% pressure rate in his career, which fell to 4.2% last season. He’s an underwhelming overall option, but he at least has bounce back potential as a run defender and the Vikings won’t be relying on him as their top interior defender anymore. 

The Vikings’ best interior defender last season was probably Jalen Redmond, who had a 77.2 PFF grade, especially excelling against the run, but he only played 208 snaps. Redmond is a 2023 undrafted free agent who had never played a snap prior to last season, so he’s very unproven, but he showed a lot of potential last season and 155 of those 208 snaps came in his final seven games of the season, so he earned himself a consistent role as a situational run stopper down the stretch last season and he should carry that into 2025.

Other reserve options for the Vikings including 5th round rookie Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, 2024 7th round pick Levi Drake Rodriguez, who played just 7 snaps as a rookie, and veteran journeyman Jonathan Harris, who has finished above 60 on PFF just once in six seasons in the league and who only played 133 snaps for the Panthers last season, when he had just a 49.0 PFF grade. None of them are likely to have a significant role unless there are significant injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This interior defender group still has concerns, but overall this looks like a better group than last year, perhaps a much better group if everyone can stay healthy and play at their best.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Vikings’ edge defenders were the strength of their defense last season. Starters Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel finished the season with PFF grades of 80.8 and 70.8 across snap counts of 916 and 920 respectively. Both especially excelled as a pass rusher, with Greenard totaling 12 sacks, 9 hits, and a 15.0% pressure rate and Van Ginkel totaling 11.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate. Both have similar stories, starting out as high level rotational players, breaking out in an every down role in 2023, and then signing with the Vikings last off-season and continuing their high level play in 2024.

Greenard only played 963 total snaps in the first three seasons of his career after being a 2020 3rd round pick, in part due to missing a combined 16 games due to injury, but he showed his promise with a 82.9 PFF grade across 414 snaps in 2021 and then broke out in 2023 with a 78.2 PFF grade across 632 snaps, while totaling 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate. The Vikings signed him to a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal last off-season, making him only the 14th highest paid edge defender in the league in average annual salary, and he proved to be a steal when he had another dominant season as an every down player in 2024. Greenard is still only going into his age 28 season and he seems to have put his injury issues behind him, missing just two games over the past two seasons, so he should continue playing at a high level in 2025.

Van Ginkel, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2019 and played fewer than 500 snaps in three of his first four seasons in the league, but he had a 79.3 PFF grade on 479 snaps in 2020 and a 74.8 PFF grade on 333 snaps in 2022, before breaking out with a 91.1 PFF grade across 727 snaps in 2023, while totaling 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate. The Vikings got him for only 20 million over 2 years last off-season, which proved to be an even bigger steal than Greenard, and he deservedly got a raise this off-season, when the Vikings added another 1 year and 23 million onto his deal ahead of what would have been his contract year in 2025. Van Ginkel’s age is a minor concern, heading into his age 30 season, but even if he regresses a little bit, he should remain at least an above average every down starter.

The Vikings lost Patrick Jones in free agency and he did have 7 sacks last season in a part-time role, but his peripheral pass rush stats of 4 hits and a 7.6% pressure rate were not nearly as good as his sack total and he finished with only a 55.8 PFF grade across 459 snaps, so he won’t be missed much, especially since the VIkings have 2024 1st round pick Dallas Turner waiting in the wings and ready to play a significant role behind Greenard and Van Ginkel. 

Turner got off to a slow start in 2024, with just a 6.3% pressure rate in his first six games, when he played just 85 snaps, but his pressure rate improved to 9.4% from that point on and his playing time increased alongside his improving play, as he played 217 snaps in his last 10 games. Turner figures to have an even bigger role this season and has all the talent to have a second year breakout year. Even if he doesn’t have a big breakout, he figures to be a high end rotational reserve, at the very least.

With Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Turner set to all play heavy snaps, the Vikings don’t have much need for depth outside of their top-3, but they would if any of their top-3 missed time with injury and they don’t really have a good fourth option. Bo Richter and Gabriel Murphy are 2024 undrafted free agents who played 30 nondescript snaps and 35 nondescript snaps respectively as rookies and they are really the only other options the Vikings have on the roster. Still, given how talented the Vikings’ top-3 are, their lack of depth beyond them is only a minor concern.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Vikings also got a great free agent value last off-season with Blake Cashman, who was signed to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal. Cashman, a 2019 5th round pick, played just 609 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, largely due to injuries that cost him 36 games total in those four seasons, and he was never more than a middling player when he was on the field, so it came as a shock when he had a 83.7 PFF grade in 2023 and it was fair to wonder if he would continue that level of play, especially since he again missed another three games due to injury that season. 

Cashman wasn’t quite as good in 2024, but he still had an above average 71.6 PFF grade, while playing a career high 894 snaps. Still only going into his age 29 season, with back-to-back above average seasons under his belt, it seems likely Cashman will remain an above average starter in 2025, though it’s worth noting that even with his career high in snaps last season, he still missed three games, so he remains an injury prone player who is likely to miss time again at some point this season.

Cashman will start next to Ivan Pace, who also had a surprisingly good season in 2023, when he had a 77.1 PFF grade across 704 snaps despite being an undrafted rookie. Pace wasn’t quite as good in 2024, but he still had a decent 64.6 PFF grade, though he was limited to 412 snaps in 11 games. Pace should play more in 2025, not just because he probably won’t miss as much time with injury, but because the Vikings don’t have the safety depth they had last season and probably won’t use three safeties at the same time in sub packages as much as they did last season, which I will talk more about later. Pace showed he was capable of playing close to an every down role in 2023, so he should be able to handle the higher snap count. He and Cashman should at least be a solid linebacker duo.

The Vikings also upgraded their linebacker depth this off-season. Kamu Grugier-Hill was the Vikings third linebacker last season and he was terrible, finishing with a 36.4 PFF grade across 182 snaps and barely seeing action even when Cashman or Pace missed time with injury. The Vikings didn’t bring him back this off-season and instead replaced him with veteran Eric Wilson. A 9-year veteran, Wilson struggled in the one season in his career in which he played an every down role, finishing with a 53.5 PFF grade across 1,034 snaps in 2020, but he finished with grades in the 60s in each of his next three highest snap totals in his career, with a 62.7 PFF grade across 336 snaps in 2018, a 67.6 PFF grade across 380 snaps in 2019, and a 65.8 PFF grade across 556 snaps last season. Wilson is heading into his age 31 season, but barring a massive dropoff, he’s a good insurance option to have. The Vikings additionally added another linebacker Kobe King in the 6th round of the draft to give themselves additional depth. With a solid starting duo and capable depth, the Vikings have an above average linebacker group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Vikings aren’t as deep at safety this season. Last season, Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, and Josh Metellus all essentially played every down roles last season, with one of them, most typically Metellus, essentially serving either as the slot cornerback or as a linebacker, depending on the situation. Those three finished the season with snap counts of 1,009, 1,028, and 990 respectively and all three were solid, with PFF grades of 66.2, 63.0, and 67.6 respectively. 

This off-season, Bynum signed with the Colts without being replaced. Making matters worse, Harrison Smith is going into his age 36 season and is clearly on the decline. He has seen his PFF grade decline in four straight seasons and his PFF grade last season was the second worst of his 13-year career, which has featured nine seasons above 70 on PFF and five seasons above 80. Smith could easily continue declining in 2025 and it wouldn’t surprise to see him be a liability.

Metellus could remain a solid starter, but versatility is a big part of his value and his game could suffer if the Vikings’ lack of safety depth gives him fewer opportunities to play other positions this season. Metellus was only a 6th round pick in 2020, but he has far exceeded his draft position. He first flashed potential in his third season in the league in 2022, when he had a 85.1 PFF grade across 259 snaps, after playing just 70 snaps combined in his first two seasons in the league. He hasn’t quite been that good in an every down role over the past two seasons, but he had a 69.2 PFF grade across 1,063 snaps in 2023, before having a similar season again in 2024. Still only in his age 27 season, he could have another similar season again in 2024, but his role will probably be different and that could hurt his effectiveness.

Theo Jackson was the Vikings’ fourth safety last season and he will probably see at least a situational role this season. The 2022 6th round pick has only played 221 snaps in three seasons in the league, including just 78 last season, but he has shown potential, with PFF grades of 85.0, 67.6, and 79.2. He’s a projection to a larger role and is unlikely to see anywhere near as big of a role as Camryn Bynum had last season, but he’s not a bad third safety option and he clearly has upside.

The Vikings also lost a pair of cornerbacks this off-season, not bringing back Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin, who had PFF grades of 63.9 and 64.3 respectively, across snap counts of 860 and 572 respectively. They should be in decent shape to replace them though. To replace one of them, Mekhi Blackmon is likely to take over as a starter. The 2023 3rd round pick flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade across 434 snaps as a rookie and was set to be a starter last season until he suffered a season-ending injury before the season even started. Blackmon is still unproven and coming back from a major injury complicates his development, but he has plenty of upside and could easily prove to be at least a solid starter.

The Vikings also signed Isaiah Rodgers, who has shown a lot of potential in part time roles in his career, finishing with a 70.7 PFF grade across 525 snaps in 2021, a 82.1 PFF grade across 434 snaps in 2022, and a 76.0 PFF grade across 329 snaps last season, with a 2023 season lost to suspension in between. He’s a projection to a larger role, but even if he isn’t quite as good in a larger role as he was in a part-time role, he could still easily be an above average player. 

The Vikings did bring back top cornerback Byron Murphy, re-signing him on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal, after he had a 72.8 PFF grade last season. Murphy had never had a season that good before and it came in his sixth season in the league, after finishing below 60 on PFF in three of his first five seasons in the league, so it’s possible last season could prove to be a fluke, but he’s also still only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible last season could prove to be a lasting breakout season for the 2019 2nd round pick.

For depth, the Vikings signed veteran Tavierre Thomas, Jeff Okudah, and Ambry Thomas this off-season. Thomas only played 46 snaps last season, but in his three previous seasons he had PFF grades of 77.6, 70.0, and 72.2 on snap counts of 639, 409, and 352 respectively, primarily as a slot cornerback, and he should be able to fill in as a solid slot specialist if needed. Okudah was once the third overall pick in the draft and is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, while missing 40 games due to injury and averaging just 394 snaps per season. He was a worthwhile flier for the Vikings to take, but I wouldn’t expect much from him. 

Ambry Thomas was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a 71.5 PFF grade across 482 snaps in 2023, but that is his only season above 60 on PFF in his career and he’s played just 375 snaps in his other three seasons in the league combined, with none of them coming last season, when he missed the entire season due to injury. Overall, I would say those three reserves are better depth than most teams have and that all three have upside, but there is also a reason they are reserves and were available cheaply this off-season. The Vikings had some off-season losses in the secondary this off-season, but this still looks like at least a decent group overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Vikings used a sixth round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker Will Reichard and he had about a league average first season in the league, accounting for just 0.30 points above average, making 24 of 30 field goals, including 8 of 11 from 50+, while also making all 38 of his extra points. Going into his second season in the league in 2025, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Reichard take a step forward and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect him to at least be a league average kicker once again.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings didn’t bring back quarterback Sam Darnold this off-season, but they took advantage of having JJ McCarthy on a cheap rookie deal and were aggressive in spending money to build up the rest of this roster even further, particularly addressing needs on the interior of their offensive and defensive lines, as well as at running back. The result is a Vikings team that has one of the best rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position. 

The quarterback position is the big mystery, with McCarthy coming off of a major injury and having never thrown a pass in the NFL, but he came into the league with a lot of upside and he has a great situation around him, between his supporting cast and the Vikings’ coaching staff. It’s very possible that Darnold’s success last season will prove to largely be the result of the situation he was in and that JJ McCarthy can also have success. That may be a big if, but if that is the case, the Vikings should be considered one of the favorites for the Super Bowl, given the overall talent on this roster. Even if McCarthy isn’t quite as good as Darnold, the Vikings should still compete for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 10-7, 3rd in NFC North