Quarterback

In 2023, the Texans had a surprise 10-7 season, won their division, and then won a wild card playoff game, led by impressive rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, as well as other talented young players who had breakout seasons. Last off-season, the Texans were aggressive in trying to maximize the rest of their roster while Stroud and others were on cheap rookie contracts and made numerous veteran additions, most notably wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired in a trade with the Bills. Many expected them to take another step forward in 2024 as a result and potentially even contend for a Super Bowl.

The Texans’ 2024 season wasn’t bad, but it was disappointing given their pre-season expectations, as their 2024 season essentially went the same way as 2023 did, a 10-7 record, a division title, and a wild card playoff win. Making matters even worse, the Texans were not even as good as their 10-7 record suggested in the regular season, finishing the year with a negative first down rate differential at -0.38% and only finishing slightly positive in yards per play differential at +0.03.

Their offense was the most disappointing as they went from 12th in yards per play and 17th in first down rate in 2023 to 19th in yards per play and 29th in first down rate in 2024. CJ Stroud fell from a 63.9% completion, 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (100.8 QB rating) to 63.2% completion, 7.01 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (87.0 QB rating). It wasn’t all his fault as his PFF grade actually only fell from 83.0 to 78.9, but it was a relatively disappointing year from him, given how good he was as a rookie. 

I will get into the other reasons this offense struggled last season later and will address whether I expect those issues to continue in 2025, but Stroud’s disappointing second season in the league wasn’t totally unexpected, given that impressive rookies often take a step back in their second season in the league, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he bounced back or even had his best season yet in his third season in the league in 2025, still only turning 24 in October. The future is still very bright for Stroud, who has the potential to be among the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Stroud will continue being backed up by Davis Mills. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Mills made 25 starts in his first two seasons in the league before Stroud was added, but completed just 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, while going just 5-19-1. Mills’ lack of supporting cast can be blamed somewhat for his struggles in those two seasons and it’s possible he has gotten better since then, but across 75 pass attempts since becoming the backup, Mills has completed 50.7% of his passes for an average of 5.13 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He showed enough for the Texans to keep him on a 1-year, 5 million dollar extension, but he’s an underwhelming backup option and the Texans would obviously be in trouble if Stroud missed significant time and Mills had to start in his absence.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason why the Texans’ offense disappointed last season was injuries to their receiving corps. In 2023, the Texans had a pair of talented young wide receivers who had breakout years in Nico Collins and Tank Dell and then they added veteran Stefon Diggs to the mix to give them arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. However, Collins missed five games, Diggs suffered a torn ACL that ended his season after 8 games, while Dell was not 100% to start the season recovering from a broken leg suffered late in 2023 and then, right around when he started to look like himself, he suffered a multi-ligament tear in his knee in week 16 that could cost him all of 2025.

With Diggs signing with the Patriots this off-season and Dell’s 2025 in jeopardy, wide receiver was a big need for the Texans this off-season and they addressed it by trading for veteran Christian Kirk and then using second and third round picks on Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Nico Collins remains as the #1 receiver. The 2021 3rd round pick showed promise early in his career, with a yards per route run average of 1.24 as a rookie and 1.68 in his second season in the league, despite shaky quarterback play, and then he broke out in his third season in 2023 when Stroud arrived, finishing the season with a 80/1297/8 slash line in 15 games on just 109 targets, while averaging 3.10 yards per route run and posting a 91.0 PFF grade.

In 2024, his PFF grade was even better at 91.6 and he had a 68/1006/7 slash line with 2.87 yards per route run on just 99 targets in 12 games. Over 17 games, that extrapolates to a 96/1425/10 slash line and that’s despite possibly not being 100% after returning from injury. Through his first five games of the season before getting hurt, Collins had a 32/567/3 slash line, which extrapolates to a 109/1928/10 slash line over 17 games. Injuries have always been an issue for him as he’s missed at least two games in all four seasons in the league, with 17 total games missed, but he’s among the best receivers in the league when healthy and, still only going into his age 26 season, his upside is massive in 2025 if he can avoid injury.

Christian Kirk should be a solid #2 option. He has missed 14 games over the past two seasons combined but averaged 2.07 yards per route run in 2023 and 1.72 yards per route run in 2024. Over the past four seasons combined, he has averaged 1.85 yards per route run with an average slash line of 77/1025/5 per 17 games and he’s still relatively young, only in his age 29 season. He probably won’t have as big of a target share in Houston as he had over the past four seasons, but his quarterback situation should be better and he won’t face many double teams with Nico Collins taking coverage away from him. Injuries are his biggest concern, but he comes with plenty of upside if he can stay healthy.

Kirk as the #2 receiver leaves the rookies Higgins and Noel to compete with holdover John Metchie for the #3 receiver job. Metchie is a former high draft pick himself, going in the second round in 2022, but he missed his whole rookie season while recovering from cancer and hasn’t developed in two years since, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run in a part-time role. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could still have upside, but the rookie Higgins will probably end up as the #3 receiver sooner rather than later and Metchie could end up as low as 5th on the depth chart behind Noel.

Tight end Dalton Schultz also had a down year in 2024 as well, going from a 59/635/5 slash line with 1.47 yards per route run in 2023 to a 53/532/2 slash line with 1.04 yards per route run last season. Schultz also averaged 1.47 yards per route run in 2021 and 1.38 yards per route run in 2022 and he’s still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, so it’s very possible 2024 proves to be a fluke and he bounces back in 2025. Even at his best, he’s not an elite tight end, but he is a solid one and a bounce back from him would help this offense at least somewhat.

Schultz will be backed up by either Cade Stover or Brevin Jordan. Stover, a 2024 4th round pick, was mediocre as a rookie with 0.92 yards per route run and a 51.9 PFF grade, but he could be better in his second season in the league. Jordan, meanwhile, was impressive as the #2 tight end in 2023, with 1.59 yards per route run and a 68.7 PFF grade, but he missed most of last season with injury. Jordan, a 2021 5th round pick, is still only going into his age 25 season, but he has just a 1.02 yards per route run average aside from 2023 and coming back from a significant injury complicates matters, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will return to his 2023 form in 2025. He’s still probably the favorite for the #2 tight end job, but it’s very possible both tight ends see roles behind Schultz. Overall, this receiving corps looks likely to be better than a year ago, when injuries significantly affected it.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The other reason this offense disappointed in 2024 was the struggles of their offensive line. The Texans overhauled their offensive line this off-season, adding numerous starting options, but they also traded away left tackle Laremy Tunsil in the process and he was their best offensive lineman last season with a 76.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. The Texans felt they wouldn’t be able to afford him long-term given all of the Texans’ other young players who will need big pay raises in the next couple off-seasons and wanted to get something for him while they could, ahead of his age 31 season. However, none of the other offensive linemen the Texans brought in this off-season have Tunsil’s upside and, as a result, this offensive line could potentially be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Tunsil’s likely replacement is Cam Robinson, who the Texans signed to a 1-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Robinson has made 101 starts in eight seasons in the league, all at left tackle, so he comes with plenty of experience, but he also has never finished with a PFF grade higher than 67.2. The flip side of that is he has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, so he at least gives the Texans a floor at the left tackle position, but he doesn’t give them much upside, especially since he is now heading into his age 30 season.

At right tackle, the Texans have several options. Tytus Howard started 12 games there last season, but he can also play guard, where he started 4 games down the stretch last season and where he has made 25 of his 77 career starts in six seasons in the league. If he moves to guard, the Texans could start 2024 2nd round pick Blake Fisher, rookie 2nd round pick Aireontae Ersery, or veteran free agent addition Trent Brown at right tackle.

Fisher was mediocre across 337 snaps (5 starts) as a rookie, with a 50.4 PFF grade, but could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Ersery enters the league pretty raw, but also has upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a capable starter in year one. Brown has finished above 60 on PFF in all ten seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, but he’s also missed 61 games in his career, including 20 over the past two seasons, and he’s now heading into his age 32 season so, even if he starts at the beginning of the season, the chances he gets hurt or gets benched due to age related decline are significant. 

Howard figures to be a starter somewhere, whether right tackle or one of the guard spots. He’s been inconsistent in six years in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but he did have a career best year in 2024, with a 70.5 PFF grade. He’s unlikely to repeat the best year of his career again in 2025, given his inconsistent past, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain at least a capable starter. Guard makes more sense for him than right tackle because the Texans have fewer options there, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play right tackle or even for him to see starts at both.

Aside from Howard, the Texans options at guard are free agent acquisition Laken Tomlinson, trade acquisition Ed Ingram, and holdover Juice Scruggs, who made 8 starts at center last season, but started his final 5 games at guard. Tomlinson is a veteran who has made 155 starts in 10 seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in seven of those seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and the 62.1 PFF grade he had last season was his best of the past three seasons. That’s probably the best case scenario for him at this point in his career and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him struggle.

Ingram was a second round pick by the Vikings in 2022, but he hasn’t developed, with PFF grades of 57.1, 59.5, and 54.0 in three seasons in the league (41 starts), which is why he was available so inexpensively via trade this off-season. He may still have some untapped potential, but he is running out of time to make good on that potential. Scruggs is also a former 2nd round pick, selected in 2023. He struggled in seven starts at guard as a rookie with a 51.5 PFF grade, but was better last season with a 63.6 PFF grade and could remain at least a capable starter. Overall, the Texans’ guard options are underwhelming, but it’s not like they got great guard play last season either.

If Scruggs doesn’t end up with a starting job at guard, he could compete at center. His primary competition at center would be Jarrett Patterson, who has been decent with PFF grades of 60.4 and 61.0 across 16 total starts in two seasons in the league, despite only being a 6th round pick in 2023. The Texans have options on the offensive line, but overall it seems like they have much more quantity than quality and, as a result, this is likely to remain a below average offensive line again this season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with Stefon Diggs, the other key veteran addition the Texans made on offense last season was running back Joe Mixon. Unlike Diggs, Mixon remains on the roster and will remain the starter in 2025. Mixon wasn’t necessarily a disappointment in his first season in Houston, but he wasn’t a difference maker either. He handled the load, with 245 carries in 14 games and he had 11 rushing touchdowns, but his 4.15 yards per carry average was unspectacular. He also slowed down significantly down the stretch, averaging 4.83 yards per carry on 126 carries in his first 6 games, as opposed to 3.42 yards per carry on 119 carries in his final 8 games.

Mixon has rushed for 7,428 yards and 60 touchdowns on 1,816 carries in his career (4.09 YPC), while averaging a 49/375/2 slash line per 17 games through the game, but he is now heading into his age 29 season with 2,135 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to start declining significantly. With Mixon getting up there in age, the Texans used a 4th round pick on Woody Marks to potentially replace him long-term. Marks is likely to begin his career as the third string running back though, as the Texans already have a capable backup in Dameon Pierce.

Pierce has seen his carry total decline from 220 to 145 to 40 in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2022, but he has a solid 4.07 yards per carry average in his career, with 3.28 yards per carry coming after contact. He also showed himself capable of being a lead back as a rookie in 2022, when he averaged 4.27 yards per carry on 220 carries with 3.28 yards per carry after contact. He’s pretty useless in passing situations, with 0.76 yards per route run averaged for his career, but he’s a good backup to have on early downs. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his carry total increase this season if the Texans want to rest Mixon more frequently to keep him fresher as he ages. This isn’t a bad backfield, but none of the Texans’ running backs are game changers.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Texans’ offense was disappointing in 2024, their defense actually played well and was by far the strength of this team. In 2023, they ranked 13th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed and in 2024, they jumped to 4th in yards per play allowed and 3rd in first down rate allowed. A big reason for that success was free agent acquisition Danielle Hunter, who had a 82.7 PFF grade across 766 snaps in the first year of a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal.

That was nothing new for Hunter, who has finished above 70 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, dating back to 2016, including finishes above 80 in four of the past five seasons. In total, he has 93.5 sacks, 65 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 122 games since 2016, including 12 sacks, 13 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate last season, and he’s a high level run defender as well. Hunter is going into his age 31 season in 2025, so he could start to decline, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2025, he will likely remain at least an above average starter.

Hunter makes up a dominant edge defender duo with Will Anderson, the 3rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, who had an impressive rookie season, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year on the strength of 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, and a 81.8 PFF grade across 629 snaps and then he was even better in his second season in the league in 2024, finishing with a 85.1 PFF grade across 561 snaps and totaling 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate. Still only going into his age 24 season in 2025, Anderson may not have reached his peak yet and looks like to be one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come. He could play at a Defensive Player of the Year caliber level this season.

With a duo like Hunter and Anderson leading the way, the Texans don’t have much need for depth, but they have at least one good option. Derek Barnett is not much of a pass rusher, with a career 9.8% pressure rate and just a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but he’s an above average run defender who can be useful in a situational role. He’s finished above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all but one of his eight seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70 and run defense grades of 80.1 and 72.6 over the past two seasons respectively. He played 390 snaps last season and I would expect a similar role from him in 2025.

Denico Autry has been a useful player for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in 9 of 11 seasons in the league, while averaging 566 snaps per season, but he fell to a 56.0 PFF grade across just 314 snaps last season and now heads into his age 35 season, so he might not even be a useful depth player at this point in his career. He’ll compete for a reserve role with 2023 4th round pick Dylan Horton, who has played 387 nondescript snaps in his career, but could have upside, and free agent acquisition Darrell Taylor, a 2020 2nd round pick who has never finished above 60 on PFF in overall grade for a season, but who has at least been useful as a situational pass rusher, with a career 10.7% pressure rate, including a 13.8% pressure rate last season. Overall, this is a great edge defender group, led by Anderson and Hunter.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The weak spot on this defense was the interior defender position, where the Texans didn’t have a single player finish with higher than a 60 grade on PFF. All four of the Texans top interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season all return and could play similar roles. Tim Settle led this position group with 625 snaps played in 17 games and finished with a 57.6 PFF grade. He was an effective pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, but struggled mightily with a 42.6 run defense grade. This has largely been the case for him throughout his 7-year career, as he has finished above 60 in run defense grade just once, but has a decent 7.7% pressure rate for his career. 

Now in his age 28 season, Settle likely is who he is at this stage of his career and should remain an effective pass rusher who struggles against the run this season. Mario Edwards ranked second with 466 snaps played in 13 games and he is a similar player to Settle. He has a 8.5% pressure rate for his career, including a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of the past six seasons. Now going into his age 31 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his pass rush declined as well.

Folorunso Fatukasi was the worst of the bunch with a 33.7 PFF grade across 308 snaps in 11 games. He’s had better years in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of the previous five seasons prior to last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as bad in 2025 as he was in 2024, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him at this point and he could easily continue being a liability. Kurt Hinish could also remain in the mix for snaps, despite finishing with PFF grades of 49.5, 40.0, and 56.2 on snap counts of 435, 465, and 231 in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2022.

The Texans did add Sheldon Rankins to the mix this off-season, but it’s unclear how much that will help. Rankins is returning to Houston, where he played in 2023 and if the Texans get the 2023 version of him, that will be a big boost, as he struggled against the run, but was a dominant pass rusher with 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. However, Rankins had a 55.3 PFF grade and was limited to 287 snaps in seven games with the Bengals last season due to an illness. Availability has consistently been an issue for him, as he has missed 32 games in nine seasons in the league, with at least four games missed in four of those seasons. Now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days could be behind him, but there is a scenario in which he is a useful player for them at a position of need in 2025. Overall, this is still an underwhelming position group. 

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Another big addition the Texans made to their defense last off-season was linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. He was limited to 573 snaps in 11 games, primarily by a suspension for repeated personal fouls, but he had a 70.9 PFF grade when he did play. Al-Shaair has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, but last season was his career best PFF grade, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed at least a little bit this season, but the flip side of that is he is likely to be available for more games and play more snaps this season.

Al-Shaair started next to Henry To’oTo’o, who improved significantly from 2023 to 2024. A 2023 5th round pick, To’oTo’o struggled during his rookie season with a 42.7 PFF grade across 435 snaps, but he improved to about a league average starter in 2024, with a 60.9 PFF grade across 830 snaps. It’s possible he could regress in 2025, but it’s also possible he has permanently turned the corner and will remain at least a capable starter, potentially with the upside to get even better in his third season in the league.

The Texans actually didn’t miss Al-Shaair that much when he was out last season because reserves Neville Hewitt and Jake Hansen finished the season with PFF grades of 70.2 and 78.2 respectively across snap counts of 342 and 135 respectively. Hewitt wasn’t brought back this off-season, but Hansen remains. He has only played 383 snaps in three seasons in the league and went undrafted in 2022, but he’s shown a lot of promise in limited action, with PFF grades of 69.1, 74.8, and 78.2 across his three seasons in the league.

The Texans also added EJ Speed in free agency this off-season to further bolster their depth and they have 2022 3rd round pick Christian Harris set to return from an injury plagued 2024 season in which he played just 172 snaps in three games. Speed has played 56.2 snaps per game while starting 26 of 31 games played over the past two seasons and has generally been a marginal starter, with PFF grades of 65.0 and 56.4 respectively. Now in Houston, it’s unlikely he will remain an every down player, but he should still be a useful situational run stuffer, having received run defense grades of 82.8, 78.8, and 71.5 from PFF over the past three seasons respectively, and if To’oTo’o regresses, Speed would likely be the Texans’ first option to replace him as an every down player.

Harris, meanwhile, was a decent starter in 2023 with a 60.1 PFF grade across 755 snaps, but he also had a 28.3 PFF grade across 711 snaps as a rookie in 2022 and had a 40.0 PFF grade across 172 snaps last season, so he is probably not returning to a starting role in a linebacking corps that is even deeper that it was last season. Overall, this is not a spectacular group, but they have plenty of depth and options and could be an above average group overall.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Texans also got better cornerback play in 2024 than they did in 2023, due to impressive play from second round pick Kamari Lassister and a breakout year by slot cornerback Jalen Pitre, who converted from safety. Lassister had a 70.0 PFF grade across 799 snaps in 14 games, while Pitre had a 73.9 PFF grade across 660 snaps, after the 2022 2nd round pick had middling grades of 57.1 and 61.6 on snap counts of 1,088 and 904 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Lassister will likely remain an above average starter in 2025 and has the upside to be even better, while Pitre has some regression potential, but could have permanently turned a corner and could remain an above average player in his second season at his new position.

Derek Stingley will remain the top cornerback. He didn’t have quite as good of a season in 2023 as he did in 2024, falling from a 81.8 PFF grade to a 73.9 PFF grade, but he played all 17 games, as opposed to 11 in 2023. Still only going into his age 24 season, Stingley, the third overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, looks likely to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come. The one concern with him is injuries as, even though he played in all 17 games last season, he missed 14 in his first two seasons combined and had durability issues as a prospect coming out of college.

The Texans bolstered their cornerback depth this off-season by using a third round pick on Jaylin Smith and signing veteran Ronald Darby. Darby has finished above 60 on PFF in nine of ten seasons in the league, including five seasons above 70, while starting 107 of 118 games he has played, but he’s also missed 46 games in those ten seasons, with four or more games missed in six seasons, and now he’s heading into his age 31 season. He’s good depth to have, but he might not be reliable if forced to start for an extended period of time.

At safety, the Texans lost Eric Murray, who played 857 snaps last season, but he only had a 61.7 PFF grade and the Texans almost definitely upgraded on him by trading for CJ Gardner-Johnson. Gardner-Johnson had a 76.0 PFF grade across 907 snaps last season and, while that was a career best, he’s not a one-year wonder, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70. Durability has been his biggest issue, as he has missed 26 games across those six seasons, but, as long as he is healthy, he should be an above average starter, still only in his age 28 season.

Gardner-Johnson will likely start next to Calen Bullock. Bullock struggled with a 52.3 PFF grade across 977 snaps last season, but the 2024 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league. The alternative is Jimmie Ward, who is extremely proven, with PFF grades above 70 in five of the past six seasons, including a 76.1 PFF grade in 2024, but he is now going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly in 2025. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 54 games in 11 seasons in the league, including 7 last season, when he was limited to just 461 snaps played. He’ll probably be a reserve this season, but he’s at least versatile, capable of playing safety and slot cornerback, he is likely to at least have a situational sub package role, and he could still have another solid year left in the tank in a reduced role. This is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn was a slightly below average kicker last season, with 1.48 points below average. He was above average on field goals of 50+, making 13 of 17, and on field goals of 40-49, making 6 of 7, but he also missed three extra points and three kicks from inside 40 yards. Overall, he’s been a slightly above average kicker in his career, accumulating 9.09 points above average in eight seasons in the league. I would expect him to be somewhere around average again in 2025, still in the prime of his career in his age 31 season.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans’ offense disappointed last season due to regression from quarterback CJ Stroud, injuries to their receiving corps, and poor play on the offensive line. Their receiving corps should be better this year, but their offensive line looks likely to be worse and their running game could easily be worse as well. This is still the best team in the AFC South by default, but they have a tough schedule and I wouldn’t consider them true contenders in the AFC.

Update: After some re-analysis of the other teams in the AFC South, the division is way more wide open than I originally thought and, while the Texans are still the best team, it is not by a wide margin and they have by far the toughest schedules in the division.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC South