Quarterback

The Buccaneers made the post-season for the fifth straight season in 2024, the longest active streak in the NFC, but how they’ve done it hasn’t always been the same. The streak started in 2020 when the Buccaneers signed Tom Brady, who immediately elevated a team with a great supporting cast that was a quarterback away from contention and, as a result, the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers then spent aggressively to keep their team together in 2021 and 2022, borrowing future cap space to do so, but, while they made the playoffs in both seasons, they fell from 13 wins in 2021 to 8 wins in 2022, making the post-season only because of how weak the rest of the division was.

Following that disappointing 2022 season, Tom Brady retired and the Buccaneers were faced with a difficult decision. They needed to part ways with some players to get under the cap either way and could have opted to completely blow it up and start from scratch. Instead, the Buccaneers opted not to completely rebuild and kept as much of their core as they could. They then took a flier on free agent quarterback Baker Mayfield, a former #1 pick who had some successful seasons with the Browns earlier in his career, but who came cheap because he was two years removed from his last successful season and had most recently struggled mightily in a season that saw him make starts for both the Panthers and Rams in 2022.

Mayfield’s addition turned out to be a great decision as he bounced back with 64.3% completion, 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, a QB rating of 94.6, much more in line with the 93.7 QB rating he had in 2018 and the 95.9 QB rating he had in 2020 than the 83.1 QB rating he had in 2021 or the 79.0 QB rating he had in 2022. The result was the Buccaneers winning 9 games, the division, and even another playoff game. However, the Buccaneers struggled in terms of both yards per play differential at -0.33 and first down rate differential at -2.75%, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Their offense ranked 23rd in first down rate and 14th in yards per play, while their defense ranked 21st in first down rate allowed and 22th in yards per play allowed.

Between that and Baker Mayfield’s history of inconsistency, it seemed likely the Buccaneers would have fewer wins in 2024 than they did in 2023. Instead, their offense improved to a new level, ranking 3rd in first down rate and 4th in yards per play, in large part due to quarterback Baker Mayfield having a career best year, completing 71.4% of his passes for 7.89 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 106.8. The Buccaneers’ win total of 10 wasn’t a significant improvement and the Buccaneers actually lost their first playoff game this time around, but they succeeded in a way that tends to be much more sustainable long-term, finishing the season 3rd in first down rate differential at +4.33% and 5th in yards per play differential at +0.75, both of which are much better than their record suggested.

It is fair to wonder how much of the improvement of Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense was because of offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen came to Tampa Bay in a tough spot, replacing Dave Canales, whose previous success turning around Mayfield’s career in 2023 landed him the Carolina Panthers’ head coach job in 2024, but Coen’s offense proved to be even more effective than Canales’ offense. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, Coen also parlayed his one season as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator into a head coach job, leaving for the Jaguars, with former Coen assistant Josh Grizzard being elevated to his first NFL offensive coordinator job to replace him. It’s very possible Grizzard doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of success Coen had last season, which would be a big blow to this team.

Mayfield will again be backed up by Kyle Trask, who was originally drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft to potentially replace Brady long-term, before losing a competition for the starting job to Mayfield. In four seasons as the backup, Trask has only gotten to attempt 11 passes, so he’s an unknown commodity, but the Buccaneers like him enough to keep him as the backup for a fifth straight season, preventing him from leaving as a free agent with a 1-year, 2.7875 million dollar deal this off-season. It’s tough to know what to make of him, but needless to say the Buccaneers are hoping that Mayfield can stay healthy all season long again in 2025.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

It wasn’t just improved play by Baker Mayfield and the passing game that led to the Buccaneers’ offense being more effective this season, as they also improved significantly on the ground, going a 3.44 yards per carry average in 2023, dead last in the NFL, to a 5.25 yards per carry average in 2024, 3rd in the NFL. Part of that was due to improved offensive line play, which I will get into later, but the Buccaneers also got a huge year from rookie running back Bucky Irving, who was one of the best running backs in the league, despite only being a 4th round pick.

Irving rushed for 1,122 yards and 8 touchdowns on 207 carries, ranking 4th among eligible running backs in yards per carry at 5.42, 1st in yards per carry after contact at 4.03, 4th in PFF grade at 90.6, 2nd in elusive rating at 122.1, and 6th in carry success rate at 55.1. He was also an effective receiver too, ranking 6th among running backs with 1.63 yards per route run, taking 52 targets for a 47/392/0 slash line, despite playing only a part-time role in passing situations. Irving might not be quite as good again in 2025, especially with the coordinator change, but he looks likely to be one of the best running backs in the league for years to come.

Backup running back Rachaad White also had a solid season with a 4.26 yards per carry average and a 50.7% carry success rate on 144 carries, a significant upgrade from when he averaged 3.64 yards per carry and had a 40.8% carry success rate on 272 carries as the lead back in 2023. He saw his role gradually decline as the season went on, with White receiving 70 carries to Irving’s 67 in the first eight games they played together, as opposed to a 126-74 split in favor of Irving in the final eight games of the season. I would expect a similar split to those final eight games in 2025. White has struggled as the lead back before, but is a solid backup option. 

White is also likely to continue having a role in the passing game, which he has always had some success in, with a career 1.22 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Sean Tucker likely remains as the #3 back, after averaging 6.16 YPC on 50 carries last season. He went undrafted in 2023 and only has 65 carries in two seasons in the league, but he has a career 5.09 YPC average. He will likely remain in the same role and rotate in if either of the two backs ahead of him on the depth chart miss time. With an impressive lead back in Bucky Irving and good depth behind him, this is an impressive backfield. 

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line was also significantly improved in 2024, going from 10th in PFF pass blocking grade and 29th in PFF run blocking grade in 2023 to 2nd in pass blocking grade and 15th in run blocking grade in 2024. The biggest reason for this was the emergence of right guard Cody Mauch, a 2023 2nd round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie with a 44.7 PFF grade across 17 starts, but who then improved drastically in year two, finishing with a 75.4 PFF grade across 17 starts. Mauch is still technically a one-year wonder and could regress in 2025, but even if he does, he’s highly unlikely to regress back to his rookie year form and he also just as easily could continue being an above average starting guard, or even improve further.

Aside from Mauch’s massive improvement, the rest of this line was actually largely the same in 2024 as 2023. Center Graham Barton and left guard Ben Bredeson were new starters, but both were actually below average, with PFF grades of 55.8 and 56.2 respectively. Barton was a first round pick in 2024 and could easily be a lot better in his second season in the league in 2025, while Bredeson has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020, while making 42 starts total, and will likely continue struggling in 2025.

Tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke also remain in 2025 and both had similar seasons in 2024 as they had in 2023. Wirfs had an 82.8 PFF grade, his fifth straight season with a PFF grade in the 80s since entering the league as the 13th overall pick in 2020. Wirfs started his career at right tackle and has seamlessly made the transition to the blind side over the past two seasons. Only going into his age 26 season, I would expect Wirfs to play at a similar level for years to come and could even have further untapped upside. Goedeke, meanwhile, has had PFF grades of 72.5 and 73.7 over the past two seasons, after struggling as a 2nd round rookie in 2022 with a 43.7 PFF grade. He should continue being an above average starter in 2025.

Depth is a concern on this offensive line. The Buccaneers’ starting offensive line was pretty healthy last season, missing just five games combined between the five of them, which is not guaranteed to continue. Justin Skule (361 snaps) and Robert Hainsey (94 snaps) played well as the top reserves last season with PFF grades of 69.2 and 73.3 respectively, but both left this off-season and weren’t really replaced. The most notable off-season addition the Buccaneers made on the offensive line was Charlie Heck, who is likely to be the swing tackle, even though he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020 (23 starts).

On the interior, the Buccaneers are hoping Sua Opeta can be their top reserve, after he missed all of last season with injury. A 2019 undrafted free agent, Opeta has only finished above 60 on PFF once in his career and coming off of a major injury hurts his projection even more. The Buccaneers have an above average starting offensive line, but they could have significant problems if they can’t stay as healthy as they did a year ago, given their lack of depth.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

If there is one reason this offense could survive the loss of offensive coordinator Liam Coen without declining significantly, it’s a receiving corps that should be significantly improved. Chris Godwin is set to return from a broken ankle that cost him all but 10 games last season. Godwin is an accomplished receiver who has finished above 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, including six seasons over 80, while surpassing 1000 yards receiving four times and averaging 1.97 yards per route run for his career. As good as he’s been in his career, he was actually on his way to a career year best last season, as his 2.36 yards per route run average was a career high and the 121/1399/12 slash line he was on pace for would have also set new career highs across the board.

There is some concern about whether or not Godwin will be quite as good again in 2025, coming off of a major injury, but he’s still in his relative prime in his age 29 season and, even if he isn’t quite as good, he should remain an above average receiver and having him healthy for significantly more games will be a boost to this offense. In Godwin’s absence last season, Jalen McMillan was the de facto #2 receiver and the 3rd round rookie was underwhelming overall, with a PFF grade of 61.0 and a yards per route run average of 1.18, but he seemed to turn a corner late in the season, with a 24/316/7 slash line and 1.90 yards per route run in his final five seasons of the regular season. Now going into his second season in the league, it’s very possible he will continue being an efficient player, though his role will be smaller.

McMillan’s role being smaller is in part due to Godwin returning, but it’s also due to the Buccaneers using their first round pick in this year’s draft on Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka will have to earn a role in a deep receiving corps, but his addition does give them some insurance in case Godwin can’t return to form or in case McMillan doesn’t continue developing. Egbuka also gives the Buccaneers a potential long-term replacement for Mike Evans, who has been the Buccaneers #1 receiver for years, exceeding 1000 yards receiving and a 70 PFF grade in all eleven seasons in the league since being selected 7th overall in 2014, with a career 2.08 yards per route run average and seven seasons above 80 on PFF, but who is now going into his age 32 season and will start to decline soon.

Evans hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, finishing last season with a 74/1004/11 slash line in just 14 games, while averaging 2.41 yards per route run and receiving an 89.0 PFF grade, but age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability and a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. It’s very possible Evans sees at least some decline this season, but the addition of Egbuka, the return of Godwin, and the potential continued development of McMillan should more than make up for that in a wide receiver group that looks likely to be significantly better in 2025 than 2024.

With the issues the Buccaneers had at wide receiver last season, tight end Cade Otton took on a bigger role, finishing second on the team with 87 targets, up from target totals of 65 and 67 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, but he wasn’t particularly efficient, finishing the season with a 59/600/4 slash line, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 63.4 PFF grade. That was still better than 2022 and 2023, when the 2022 4th round pick had yard per route run averages of 0.84 and 0.80 and PFF grades of 56.6 and 52.1, but Otton doesn’t seem like he has a particularly high upside and will likely max out as a decent starting tight end. I would expect a significantly smaller role in the offense from him this season, given how much better the Buccaneers’ wide receivers should be.

Otton will continue being backed up by Payne Durham, who was an above average blocker last season, but averaged just 0.78 yards per route run. The 2023 5th round pick has a career 0.87 yards per route run average and is a one-year wonder in terms of blocking at the level he blocked at in 2024, but he could remain a solid blocking tight end. He won’t be needed for much of a pass catching role in a group with a significantly better wide receiver group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While the Buccaneers’ offense took a big step forward in 2024, their defense wasn’t much better, ranking 15th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed. Their best player was probably edge defender Yaya Diaby, who had a mini breakout year in his second season in the league, with a 76.7 PFF grade that was best among Buccaneers defenders across 785 snaps. Also a solid run defender, Diaby especially played well as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 14 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate. A 2023 3rd round pick, Diaby showed potential with a 64.2 PFF grade across 515 snaps as a rookie, before taking a big step forward last season. He should remain an above average starter going forward, with the upside to potentially get even better.

The rest of this edge defender group was underwhelming last season though. Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka were second and third among Buccaneers edge defenders with 573 snaps and 539 snaps played respectively and both struggled with PFF grades of 55.9 and 52.0 respectively. Tyron-Shoyinka wasn’t retained this off-season, while Nelson is likely to have a smaller role this season, with the Buccaneers adding veteran Haason Reddick in free agency, using a 4th round pick on David Walker, and likely giving a bigger role to 2024 second round pick Chris Braswell, who showed some promise with a 61.0 PFF grade across 328 snaps as a rookie. Nelson also has bounce back potential in a smaller role, as he had finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, on an average of 375 snaps, and is still only going into his age 28 season in 2025.

Reddick is likely to start opposite Diaby. Reddick had a weird 2024 season, holding out for the first seven games of the season in search of a new contract and then struggling with a 53.5 PFF grade across 392 snaps once he returned. However, he had PFF grades of 72.8, 67.9, 81.1, and 75.2 on snap counts of 874, 852, 816, and 861 in his previous four seasons, excelling as a pass rusher with 50.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 66 games, so he has bounce back potential with his new team in what should be a normal season for him. The one concern is he is going into his age 31 season, but even if he is not quite as good as he was from 2020-2023, he should still be an upgrade for the Buccaneers on the edge. This could be a solid position group overall.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Things remain largely the same at the interior defender position in 2025 as they were in 2024, with their top-4 in terms of snaps played, Vita Vea (705 snaps), Calijah Kancey (541 snaps), Logan Hall (538 snaps), Greg Gaines (395 snaps) all returning for 2025. Vea was by far the best of the bunch, finishing last season with a 75.7 PFF grade, playing well as a run defender and as a pass rusher, with 7 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. This was nothing new for Vea, who has finished above 70 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, mostly playing well against the run and adding 30.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 95 career games. Vea could start to decline soon, going into his age 30 season, but even if he isn’t quite at his best in 2025, he should still remain an above average starter.

Calijah Kancey was also an effective pass rusher, with 7.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run. This is similar to how the 2023 1st round pick played as a rookie, when he had 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but again struggled mightily as a run defender. Kancey is still only going into his age 24 season and has time to get better as a run defender and, at the very least, he should remain an above average interior pass rusher in 2025 and beyond. 

Logan Hall is also a recent high draft pick, selected in the second round in 2022, but he hasn’t shown himself to be worth that pick, either as a run defender or a pass rusher, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league. He could still have theoretical upside, only going into his age 25 season, but there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025 than he has been in his first three seasons in the league. Gaines also struggled last season, finishing with a 50.5 PFF grade. It was his third straight season below 60 on PFF and, while he did begin his career with three straight seasons above 60, it seems unlikely that he will bounce back to that level at this point, even if he isn’t totally over the hill yet in his age 29 season.

The one small change to this group from a year ago is that William Gholston wasn’t retained, after having a solid season in a very limited role last season, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 201 snaps. He will likely be replaced by 5th round pick Elijah Roberts, who is likely to struggle, even in a limited role. This position group has some problems, but Vita Vea is a great all-around defensive tackle, while Calijah Kancey is a great pass rusher, so there are also some things to like about this group.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The longest tenured Buccaneer, by far, is Lavonte David, who has been with the team since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2012. In his 13 seasons in the league, David has finished above 60 on PFF in every season of his career, above 70 in nine seasons, and above 80 in five seasons. He wasn’t at his best last season, with a 68.7 PFF grade across 1,077 snaps, and he’s now heading into his age 35 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, so he could drop off even more significantly in 2025, but there is still a chance he holds off father time for another year and remains at least a solid starter.

The other starting linebacker spot is much more of a question. Last season, the Buccaneers started the season with SirVocea Dennis and KJ Britt splitting snaps there. Dennis played decently, with a 67.3 PFF grade, but he went down for the season with injury after just 105 snaps in four games, while Britt struggled with a 44.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps. Britt took over the every down role after Dennis got hurt, but he struggled so much that he started ceding snaps down the stretch to JJ Russell, who was an upgrade in a limited role, with a 67.0 PFF grade across 249 snaps.

Britt and Russell weren’t retained this off-season and, now healthy, the Buccaneers look likely to give Dennis the first crack at the starting job. The 2023 5th round pick has upside, also having a 66.3 PFF grade as a rookie before last year’s solid performance prior to his injury, but he’s extremely unproven and a projection to a larger role, playing just 206 snaps total in two seasons in the league. Even if he earns a role this season, it might not be an every down role.

To compete with him, the Buccaneers added veteran Anthony Walker in free agency. Walker has started 83 of 99 games played in eight seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in six of those seasons, but he fell to a 48.0 PFF grade across 516 snaps in 2024 and now he heads into his age 30 season. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 33 games in eight seasons in the league, with at least three games missed in five of those eight seasons. He could still have another solid season as a starter or rotational player left in him, but his age, recent struggles, and injury history are a concern. With Walker’s issues, Dennis’ lack of experience, and Lavonte David’s age, there are a lot of concerns with this linebacking corps, but there is at least upside.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The biggest weakness of this secondary last season was the safety position. Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead began the season as the starters and finished with PFF grades of 56.8 and 58.0 respectively. Both also missed significant time with injury, limited to 528 snaps in 9 games and 731 snaps in 12 games respectively. In their absences, the primary replacement was Christian Izien, who also struggled, with a 57.6 PFF grade across 697 snaps.

The good news is the Buccaneers should get better play at least one safety spot this season, with Antoine Winfield having a lot of bounce back potential. Prior to last season’s down year, Winfield had received PFF grades of 86.1, 77.8, and 91.5 in the three previous seasons and he is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season. Last year’s struggles likely stemmed from not being totally healthy for most of the season, even when on the field. Assuming his injuries are behind him, Winfield’s upside is still as high as any safety in the league this season.

The other safety spot is much more of a question. Whitehead wasn’t retained this off-season, which isn’t a huge deal because he struggled last season, but the Buccaneers didn’t do anything to replace him. Christian Izien is a candidate for the other starting safety role. He had a decent rookie season in 2023, with a 66.8 PFF grade across 718 snaps, before struggling last season, but that came as a slot cornerback and he was originally an undrafted free agent, so it’s not a guarantee he ever develops into a consistent starter anywhere. Kaevon Merriweather might be another option, but he was also a 2023 undrafted free agent and he has mostly been nondescript across 419 snaps in two seasons in the league, though he did have a 65.7 PFF grade in a limited role (260 snaps) last season.

Maybe the Buccaneers’ best option would be to move slot cornerback Tykee Smith to safety, where he played in college, as the Buccaneers have a lot more depth at cornerback than at safety. Smith played pretty well on the slot last season as a third round rookie though, with a 70.2 PFF grade across 632 snaps, so the Buccaneers might be hesitant to move him off that spot and it’s possible he isn’t as good at safety as he was on the slot. Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean were both above average as the other two cornerbacks last season though, with PFF grades of 69.5 and 75.1 respectively, and the Buccaneers then added cornerbacks in the second and third round of this year’s draft in Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, so they do have a surplus at that position.

Dean is the veteran of the bunch, selected in the 3rd round in 2019. He has never finished worse than 68.3 on PFF for a season, with five seasons above 70 out of six seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent issue for him, as he’s missed at least two games in every season, with a maximum snap count of 884 snaps in a season, while missing 18 games total in six seasons in the league. McCollum, meanwhile, is a 2022 5th round pick who is a one-year wonder, having a solid season last season after PFF grades of 46.3 and 52.1 on snap counts of 278 and 784 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. 

McCollum could continue being a solid cornerback, but he could also regress somewhat. Overall, this secondary looks likely to be better than a year ago, with Winfield likely to bounce back in a big way and a couple relatively high draft picks being added, but the Buccaneers still need to figure out the other safety spot and they have a couple young defensive backs who exceeded expectations last season who may not continue playing at the same level in 2025.

Grade: B

Kickers

Kicker Chase McLaughlin’s career got off to a slow start, as he attempted kicks for six different teams in his first three seasons in the league, finishing below average in all three seasons, but he has finished above average in each of the past three seasons and has especially been good over the past two seasons. His 17.04 points above average in 2023 and 2024 combined are the 4th most in the league over that span, while his 9.64 points above average in 2024 ranked 3rd. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best kickers in the league in 2025.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Buccaneers’ offense might not be as good in 2025 without offensive coordinator Liam Coen, but they are starting from a high enough base point as a team, ranking 5th in yards per play differential and 3rd in first down rate differential in 2024, that they should still be an above average team, even if their offense regresses. They still look like the best team in the NFC South, they have an easy schedule, and, while they probably aren’t a true contender for the Super Bowl, they are still one of the top few teams in the NFC.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC South