Quarterback

The Commanders were the NFL’s surprise team last season, going all the way from a 4-13 season in 2023 to a 12-5 season in 2024, as well as an NFC Championship appearance. The biggest reason for their improvement was quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was selected #2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and went on to have arguably the best rookie season ever by a quarterback, completing 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.43 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on 148 carries (6.02 YPC). Going into this off-season the Commanders had a lot of cap space to spend to fill out the rest of their roster, with their quarterback on a cheap rookie deal that is the best value of any active contract in the NFL right now.

Given how well their season went last season and that they spent money to get better this off-season, many are expecting the Commanders to be even better this season, but there are reasons why that might not happen. For one, the Commanders were not as good as their record in the regular season last year, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31 respectively, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Even in the Commanders’ two playoff wins, they lost the first down rate and yards per play battle both times. Including their blowout loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship game, the Commanders were actually -1.71 in yards per play differential and -10.07% in first down rate differential in the post-season.

The Commanders also had one of the weakest schedules in the league last season, while their schedule this season is expected to be one of the toughest in the league. On top of that, for all of the money the Commanders spent this off-season, it’s unclear how much better they actually are. They also might not get quite as good of a season out of Jayden Daniels, as quarterbacks who have a great rookie season don’t always repeat that the following season, even if they ultimately end up being a great quarterback long-term. 

Of the other four rookie quarterbacks who posted a 100+ quarterback rating, only one did that again the next season and, on average, those four quarterbacks saw their QB rating fall by 12.8 points the following season. We most recently saw this with CJ Stroud, who had a phenomenal rookie year and then saw his QB rating fall by 13.8 points in his second season in the league. If we expand out to the eleven quarterbacks with a 90+ quarterback rating as a rookie, the results are a little better, but more than half of them saw their quarterback rating fall in their second season, with the average QB rating of the bunch being 4.7 points lower in their second season than their first season and only two of eleven quarterbacks exceeding a 100 QB rating. Daniels should still be very good in 2025, but he might not be quite as good.

Daniels is actually backed up by one of those other eleven quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota, whose career got off to a good start with backup 90+ QB ratings in his first two seasons in the league, but he never panned out as a long-term starter and has been a backup for four of the past five seasons. In total, Mariota has completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.49 YPA, 97 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, while rushing for 5.75 YPC and 18 touchdowns on 375 carries in 74 career starts in 10 seasons in the league. Now in his age 32 season, Mariota is who he is at this stage of his career, but, as far as backups go, he is one of the better ones in the league. He stepped in well last season when needed, completing 34 of 44 for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns, and could do the same again in 2025 for a short period of time. This is one of the best quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

One of the Commanders’ biggest additions this off-season was 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The Commanders only gave up a 5th round pick for him, but they took on his full 17.5 million dollar salary for 2025. The Commanders’ second leading wide receiver had just 506 receiving yards last season and Deebo Samuel has a career 2.16 yards per route run average, so the Commanders had a need and Samuel has the upside. However, Samuel saw that yards per route run average fall to a career low 1.60 in 2024, which is actually less than the 1.69 yards per route run that de facto #2 receiver Olamide Zaccheus averaged last season, albeit in a part-time role.

It’s possible Samuel could bounce back in 2025, still only in his age 29 season, but he’s picked up a lot of injuries in his career, missing time in all six seasons in the league, while missing 19 games total over that stretch, so it’s possible he is starting to decline faster than most receivers. There is a good chance he is still a boost to this offense, but he might not be quite as good as expected and they may miss the departed Olamide Zaccheus more than expected.

Terry McLaurin remains as the #1 receiver. He finished with a 82/1096/13 slash line and 1.98 yards per route run last season, his fifth straight 1000+ season and his sixth season over 900 in as many seasons in the league. He’s never been an elite wide receiver, maxing out with 1,191 receiving yards in 2022, but he has a solid 1.87 yards per route run average in his career. Unfortunately, he is now going into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he started declining, but he will probably remain an above average wide receiver even if he isn’t quite as good as he usually is.

Noah Brown will likely be the #3 receiver. He only had a 35/453/1 slash line last season, but he was limited to 11 games due to injury and had an impressive 1.63 yards per route run average. Brown has never exceeded 600 receiving yards in a season in his career, but he has averaged 1.47 yards per route run over the past seven seasons, including 1.94 yards per route run in 2023, so he has been a pretty efficient pass catcher even if he’s never had the playing time or target share to put up big overall numbers. His numbers may be limited again as the #3 receiver, but he’s not a bad #3 option.

For depth options, the Commanders have 2024 3rd round pick Luke McCaffrey, who struggled with a 0.68 yards per route run average as a rookie, but could take a step forward in 2025. The Commanders also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Jaylin Lane, though it’s unlikely he is NFL ready enough to contribute in a positive way in his first season in the league. The Commanders also brought Michael Gallup out of retirement and, while he is still only in his age 29 season and has a decent 1.38 yards per route run average in his career, that fell to 1.04 in his final two seasons prior to being out of the league in 2024 and it’s hard to imagine him being significantly better after a year off. These aren’t bad depth options, but the Commanders will obviously be hoping they don’t have significant injuries to one or multiple of their top-3 wide receivers.

The Commanders also got a decent year out of tight end Zach Ertz, who turned back the clock to finish with a 66/654/7 slash line and 1.30 yards per route run, both his best since 2021, as he averaged 297 yards per season and 1.06 yards per route run across 2022-2023. Ertz is now heading into his age 35 season and could easily go back to struggling in 2025, though there is at least a chance that doesn’t happen and he has another decent season, despite his age.

If Ertz declines, perhaps the Commanders will get more out of Ben Sinnott, a 2024 2nd round pick who was overmatched with a 0.26 yards per route run average as a rookie, but who could take at least somewhat of a step forward in his second season in the league, even if he still is underwhelming. The Commanders also have John Bates, a blocking specialist who has averaged 0.88 yards per route run in his career, but is at least useful as a blocker. This receiving corps replaces Olamide Zaccheus with Deebo Samuel, but that isn’t as much of an upgrade as it seems and both Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz are on the wrong side of 30 and could be worse in 2025 than they were in 2024 as a result. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Another big addition the Commanders made this off-season was left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who they acquired in a trade with the Texans. Tunsil cost the Commanders a package of picks that included a 3rd rounder this year and a 2nd rounder next year and they will take on the remaining 42.7 million dollars he is owed for the next two seasons. Tunsil has been a consistently above average left tackle in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in six healthy straight seasons, maxing out with a 80.0 PFF grade in 2022. Durability has been a concern for him though, as he’s missed time in seven of nine seasons in the league, with 23 games missed total. He’s also heading into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season.

Even with the age and injury concerns though, Tunsil should still be an upgrade at left tackle for the Commanders, after Brandon Coleman was their primary starter there last season, receiving a 63.9 PFF grade across 787 snaps. Coleman was only a 3rd round rookie and could get better going forward, but if he is going to be a primary starter somewhere this season it is going to be at right tackle, rather than left. Even starting at right tackle might not be in the cards for Coleman, as the Commanders still have incumbent right tackle Andrew Wylie and additionally used their first round pick on an offensive tackle in Josh Conerly.

Coleman’s best path to a starting job would be if Conerly were to move to guard as a rookie. At guard, he would compete with incumbent Nick Allegretti on the left side. Allegretti wasn’t bad last season with a 61.7 PFF grade, but there is definitely room to upgrade. A 2019 7th round pick, Allegretti has only made 30 starts in six seasons in the league and probably doesn’t have the upside to be any better than he was last season. Wylie could also be a candidate at guard, but he finished at 59.3 in PFF grade last season, after finishing in the 60s in five of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so the Commanders have better options than him across the offensive line and he is likely to just be a versatile reserve this season.

Right guard Sam Cosmi is locked into a starting role. He was arguably their best offensive lineman last season with a 68.8 PFF grade and that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick started his career with PFF grades of 74.9, 71.6, and 80.6, before his career worst 2024 season. Cosmi is still only going into his age 26 season, so he would have bounce back potential under normal circumstances, but he tore his ACL in the second round of the playoffs of last season and, as a result, could miss the start of the season and/or not be at his best when he returns.

Center Tyler Biadasz is also locked into his job. A 2020 4th round pick, Biadasz has made 64 starts over the past four seasons and has consistently received decent grades from PFF, finishing at 64.8, 61.7, 68.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. He will likely be backed up by free agent addition Nate Herbig, who missed all of last season with injury, but who had previously received PFF grades of 71.2, 68.7, 58.0, and 67.6 from 2020-2023, when he made 30 starts as a spot starter. He’s primarily been a guard in his career, but can also play center. With Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly being added, this is a much improved offensive line and it is a deep offensive line, with two players who started last season now in reserve roles, along with free agent addition Nate Herbig, who is also an above average reserve.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Things stay the same for the Commanders in the backfield this season. Brian Robinson will remain their lead back, after leading the team in carries in each of his first three seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2022. He’s an unspectacular lead back, but he’s not a bad option either, rushing for 2,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 570 carries (4.09 YPC) in his career, with 2.89 yards per carry after contact, 17.2% missed tackle rate, and a 49.8% carry success rate. Last season was mostly in line with those career numbers, as he had 799 yards and 8 touchdowns on 187 carries (4.27 YPC) in his career, with 3.07 yards per carry after contact, 15.5% missed tackle rate, and a 48.7% carry success rate. I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Robinson is a solid pass catcher too, with a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he only had a 20/159/0 slash line last season and won’t play a big passing game role again this season because the Commanders have a great passing down specialist behind him on the depth chart in Austin Ekeler, who has been one of the best receiving backs of his era, averaging 1.83 yards per route run in his career and 1.69 yards per route run last season. Ekeler was also a great lead back in his prime, peaking with a combined 410 carries for 1,826 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2021-2022, but he’s now going into his age 30 season, so his days of being a lead back are behind him at this point. He still averaged 4.77 yards per carry last season in a change of pace role though. He could decline further in 2025, given his age, but having a reduced role should help him age better long-term. 

The Commanders also have good depth at the running back position. Chris Rodriguez, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged 4.94 YPC on 35 carries last season and has a 4.88 YPC average on 86 carries in two seasons in the league, while Jeremy McNichols, a veteran journeyman also had an impressive 4.75 YPC average on 55 carries last season, though his career average is only 4.31, he has just 145 carries in eight seasons in the league, primarily playing special teams, and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so Rodriguez is definitely the better of the two options going forward. The Commanders also used a 7th round pick on Jacory Croskey-Merritt to give themselves additional depth, though he could have a hard time cracking a deep running back group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Commanders’ offense should at least be somewhat better this season, due to the additions of Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil, their defense was the bigger problem last season, ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed and it’s unlikely they are significantly better this season. They did make a big move to sign Javon Kinlaw in free agency, giving him a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal, but that is likely a big overpay.

Kinlaw was a first round pick by the 49ers in 2020 and has broken out as a solid interior pass rusher over the past two seasons, combining for 8 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate, while playing all 34 games, after struggling through injuries for the first three seasons of his career (26 total games missed) but he has continued to struggle against the run in those two seasons, finishing with run defense grades of 31.3 and 50.8 respectively on PFF. As a result, he has finished below 60 on PFF in both seasons at 49.6 and 53.4, making it five straight seasons below 60 to begin his career. Now in his age 28 season, Kinlaw likely is who he is at this stage of his career. He will likely remain an above average pass rusher in 2025, but his run defense will probably prevent him from being worth what the Commanders paid him.

Kinlaw will rotate heavily with Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton, who led this position group with 741 snaps and 515 snaps played respectively last season. Both struggled, with PFF grades of 53.7 and 51.6 respectively, but both could be better in 2025, as Payne finished with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season and is still only in his age 28 season, while Newton is a 2024 2nd round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

The Commanders also added Eddie Goldman to compete for a deep reserve role. Goldman was a consistently above average starter in his prime with the Bears, finishing above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league from 2015-2019, including four seasons above 70, and a career best 87.3 PFF grade in 2018, but he sat out the 2020 season, struggled mightily upon his return in 2021, with a 39.8 PFF grade across 336 snaps, then sat out another two seasons before struggling again in 2024, when he had a 49.3 PFF grade across 330 snaps. 

Now in his age 31 season, Goldman’s best days are long behind him and he is likely to continue struggling in 2025, even in a deep reserve role. His primary competition for that role is likely Sheldon Day, who had a 58.2 PFF grade across 272 snaps last season and has finished with PFF grades in the 50s or 60s in all nine seasons in the league, on an average of 202 snaps per season. He could have a similar season again in 2025 as a deep reserve, though it’s worth noting he is now in his age 31 season and could decline to the point where he is a significant liability. This is an underwhelming overall position group, though they could be better than last season by default if Daron Payne bounces back and Jer’Zhan Newton takes a step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Commanders’ edge defender group, on the other hand, is likely to be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024. Dante Fowler, their team leader in sacks with 10.5, wasn’t retained this off-season and, though he struggled against the run and finished with just a 62.1 PFF grade across 563 snaps overall, he will still be missed, especially since his replacements are Deatrich Wise and Jacob Martin. Wise was a solid player in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2019-2022, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 54.3 and 59.7 over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he is likely to continue struggling. 

Jacob Martin, meanwhile, is a career journeyman who has been decent in his career, but who has only averaged 314 snaps played per season and now is also on the wrong side of 30, going into his age 30 season. Martin figures to be a reserve, while Wise has a good chance to be a de facto starter, given the Commanders’ other options. Dorance Armstrong was the Commanders’ best overall edge defender last season, finishing with a 68.9 PFF grade across 635 snaps, while totaling 5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, after finishing with a 70.1 PFF grade across 446 snaps, while totaling 7.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 28 season and coming off of four straight seasons above 60 on PFF, Armstrong should continue being a solid starter in 2025, but he’s pretty underwhelming as far as top edge defenders go.

The Commanders’ other option is Clelin Ferrell, but he is an underwhelming option. Ferrell was the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but has not nearly lived up to the billing, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of six seasons, including a 58.5 PFF grade across 369 snaps last season, while maxing out at a 76.1 PFF grade in 2020 and averaging just 450 snaps per season. He’s a decent rotational player at his best, but nothing more. He rounds out a very underwhelming edge defender rotation.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Commanders’ linebackers were the strength of their defense last season, led by every down linebacker Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Wagner was one of the best linebackers in the entire league, finishing 2nd among linebackers on PFF with a 89.9 PFF grade across 1,071 snaps. That was nothing new for Wagner, who now has eight seasons above 80 in thirteen seasons in the league, with eleven seasons above 70 and no seasons below 69 in what is likely to be a Hall of Fame career when all is said and done. The problem is Wagner is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined in a significant way this season, which would hurt this defense significantly.

Fortunately, Frankie Luvu could be better in 2025 than 2024. He wasn’t bad last season, with a 67.5 PFF grade across 1,058 snaps, but that was a drop off from his first two seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023, when he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 80.0 respectively across snap counts of 941 and 989 respectively. Still on the right side of 30 in his age 29 season, Luvu has obvious bounce back potential in 2025, which would be a boost for this defense, even if he doesn’t quite match his career best 2023 campaign.

Depth is a big issue for the Commanders at linebacker though. Their options include Nick Bellore, a career special teamer who has played just 866 total defensive snaps in 14 seasons in the league, and who now enters his age 36 season, Jordan Magee, a 2024 5th round pick who only played 16 snaps as a rookie, Dominique Hampton, also a 2024 5th round pick, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 6th round rookie Kain Medrano. The Commanders will have to hope neither of their starters misses significant time with injury, given their options behind them on the depth chart, which hurts their overall grade at this position at least somewhat.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Commanders should get better play out of their cornerbacks this season. Last season, their top-3 cornerbacks were Mike Sainristil (978 snaps), Benjamin St-Juste (836 snaps), and 

Noah Igbinoghene (819 snaps) and they finished with PFF grades of 66.1, 47.4, and 49.3 respectively. This season, they should get more out of Marshon Lattimore, who was acquired at the trade deadline last year, but only played two regular season games due to injury, and they added veteran Jonathan Jones in free agency.

Lattimore and Jones should be upgrades over St-Juste and Igbinoghene, but perhaps largely by default. Lattimore comes with upside, finishing above 70 on PFF in four of eight seasons in the league, including a 70.0 PFF grade last season, but he’s been inconsistent in his career and he’s been very injury prone in recent years, missing 25 games over the past three seasons combined. Lattimore is still relatively young in his age 29 season and he has a high upside, but he comes with injury and consistency concerns. 

Jones, meanwhile, has also had some success in his career, finishing above 70 on PFF three times in nine seasons in the league, but he’s also been injury prone of late, missing 15 games in the past four seasons, and he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of a 2024 season in which he finished with just a 60.7 PFF grade across 712 snaps, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Sainristil remains as a starter. Not only was he their only capable cornerback last season, but he was only a second round rookie and could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Overall, this looks like a solid trio of cornerbacks, especially when compared to last season, but at least two of them have significant injury histories and one is on the wrong side of 30. 

Depth could prove to be important, so the Commanders used a second round pick on Trey Amos. Amos probably won’t begin the season as a starter, but could easily find himself with a significant role at some point, either due to injury ahead of him on the depth chart or due to Jones struggling. Igbinoghene also remains as a reserve option, but he should remain buried on the depth chart if possible. He was a first round pick by the Dolphins in 2020, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league and only got on the field for a total of 627 snaps in his first four seasons in the league before being forced into a significant role in a weak position group last season.

Things are not as good at safety, probably even worse than they were a year ago. Jeremy Chinn was a solid starter with a 69.0 PFF grade across 1,020 snaps, but he wasn’t brought back this off-season. Instead, the Commanders replaced him with Will Harris, whose 61.5 PFF grade last season was simultaneously significantly worse than Chinn, but also the second best season-long grade of his 6-year career. Now in his age 30 season, he’s likely to regress and be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary.

Quan Martin remains as the other starter, but he was mediocre with a 59.2 PFF grade across 942 snaps last season. He is a 2023 2nd round pick and he did flash potential as a rookie with a 65.4 PFF grade across 365 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He still may have further untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to develop into a consistently solid starter. He too could be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary this season. 

The Commanders do have some reserve options at safety, but it’s unclear if any of them would be better than the starters. Percy Butler was the primary reserve last season with 399 snaps, but he finished with a 43.9 PFF grade. He did have a 62.7 PFF grade across 835 snaps (13 starts) in 2023, but the 2022 4th round pick has finished below 50 in his other two seasons in the league. Darrick Forest has finished with PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round in 2021, including a snap count of 849 in 2022, but that snap count fell to 328 in 2023 and just 74 in 2024. Jeremy Reeves has had his moments, but ultimately has played just 725 snaps in seven seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2018. The Commanders’ cornerback group should be significantly better this season, even if largely by default, but their safety room looks likely to be even worse, with both projected starters likely to be liabilities.

Grade: B-

Kicker

Austin Seibert was the Commanders kicker to start last season and he was having a solid year with 2.16 points above average through nine games, but he got hurt and missed the rest of the season. The Commanders then cycled through Greg Joseph (-2.92 points below average) and Cade York (-7.43 points below average) before finding Zane Gonzalez, who was decent down the stretch and through their playoff run, accumulating 0.77 points above average. 

This season, the Commanders brought none of those kickers back, opting for veteran free agent addition Matt Gay. Gay had a great 3-year stretch from 2020-2022 where he accumulated 20.65 points above average, but he fell to 3.67 points below average in 2023 and 0.68 points below average in 2024 and now heads into his age 31 season. He’s not totally over the hill for a kicker and could bounce back somewhat in 2025, but, now two years removed from his last above average season, it seems pretty unlikely he will find his old form again in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Commanders won 12 games and made the NFC Championship game last season, but they are starting from a lower base point than that suggests, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss records. That was despite a relatively easy schedule, a schedule that gets a lot harder in 2024. Even in the post-season, the Commanders lost the first down rate and yards per play battle in all three games, finishing the post-season with a -1.71 yards per play differential and a -10.07% first down rate differential.

The Commanders’ offense should be even better this season unless Jayden Daniels has a significant sophomore slump, as the Commanders added wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Laremy Tunsil this off-season to a unit that ranked 10th in yards per play and 8th first down rate. However, their defense looks likely to remain one of the worst in the league, after ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed. The Commanders should still be in the mix for a playoff spot and they have an easier schedule than the Eagles, who are unlikely to be as good as they were a year ago, but I wouldn’t consider the Commanders an elite team.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East