Month: June 2025

Cincinnati Bengals 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Quarterback

The Bengals made the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season and then made it back to the AFC Championship game in 2022, but they have missed the post-season in back-to-back seasons since then. In 2023, the big issue was quarterback Joe Burrow not being healthy for most of the season, struggling through a calf injury at the start of the season and then missing the final seven games of the season with a wrist injury. In 2024, Burrow stayed healthy all season and played at an MVP level, completing 70.6% of his passes for an average of 7.54 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but the rest of this team struggled, particularly their defense, which ranked 17th in yards per play allowed and 28th in first down rate allowed.

In the 2020 and 2021 drafts, the Bengals got Joe Burrow and his elite wide receiver duo of JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins, but, since then, they have drafted poorly. Between 2022-2024, the Bengals had ten picks in the first three rounds and, thus far, none of them have developed into an above average starter, with eight of those ten picks being used on the defensive side of the ball. The result is a very top-heavy roster. The Bengals do have one other high-level player, edge defender Trey Hendrickson, but he is going into an age 31 contract year and, thus far, the Bengals have been unwilling to give him the contract he is asking for, which could result in the Bengals opting to trade him before the season starts, even though doing so would further weaken their defense.

Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are at least signed long-term, but the Bengals ended up having to pay Chase and Higgins significantly more this off-season than they would have if they had signed them last off-season. Chase and Higgins received contracts worth 40.25 million annually and 28.75 million annually respectively, making them the 1st highest and 9th highest paid wide receivers in the league in terms of annual value. Between those contracts and Joe Burrow’s 55 million annual contract, tied for second highest among quarterbacks, the Bengals are paying a lot of money to their three best players and, if they keep Hendrickson, that will be another massive contract on the books. For this team to be consistently competitive, they will need the rest of this roster to be filled out by talented players on rookie contracts, but the Bengals’ recent history of poor drafting has prevented that.

Burrow should at least continue playing at a high level in 2025, especially since he’s keeping his top two wide receivers. Over the past four seasons, Burrow has completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 127 touchdowns, and 41 interceptions in 59 starts. Still very much in his prime, going into his age 29 season, Burrow should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and beyond. The Bengals also have a good backup in Jake Browning, who only has seven career starts, all of which came in 2023, but he showed the ability to run this offense effectively, completing 70.4% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. It’s a small sample size, but Browning seems like a useful backup to have, though obviously the Bengals would be in a lot of trouble if Burrow suffered a significant injury.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

JaMarr Chase had the best season of his career in 2024, winning the receiving triple crown with a 127/1708/17 slash line on 175 targets, while averaging 2.41 yards per route run, tied for seventh among eligible wide receivers. That didn’t come out of nowhere either, as he averaged a 101/1404/11 slash line per 17 games with 2.19 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 25 season, the 2021 5th overall pick could easily be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. 

Higgins, meanwhile, had the second best season of his 5-year career in 2024, in terms of yards per game (75.9) and yards per route run (2.05), but he did miss five games with injury, which limited him to a 73/911/10 slash line on 109 targets. Injuries have been a concern for him for much of his career, as he’s missed at least three games in three of his five seasons in the league, including a 2021 season in which he had a 74/1091/6 slash line on 110 targets in just 14 games, giving him a career high 77.9 yards per game, in addition to having a career high 2.26 yards per route run that season. In total, he has averaged a 80/1116/8 slash line per 17 games with 1.95 yards per route run in his career and, still only in his age 26 season, coming off one of the best seasons of his career, he could easily exceed those averages again in 2025, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if he missed more time due to injury.

The rest of this wide receiver depth chart, however, is an example of the lack of depth on this roster. Andrei Iosivas was the #3 wide receiver last season, but he had just a 36/479/6 slash line on 61 targets, while averaging 0.84 yards per route run, similar to the 0.77 yards per route run that the 2023 6th round pick averaged in a smaller role as a rookie. Iosivas didn’t even step up in Higgins’ absence, with just 8 catches for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns in the five games that Higgins missed, games in which the Bengals went just 1-4. 

The Bengals used a third round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Jermaine Burton, who they were hoping would become the #3 receiver long-term, but he didn’t gain the trust of the coaching staff and barely played as a rookie, seeing just 131 snaps in 14 games, while averaging just 1.11 yards per route run when he did play. He still has a lot of upside though and could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but he’ll probably still start the season as the Bengals’ #4 wide receiver, despite Iosivas’ struggles as the #3 last season.

The Bengals did at least get a solid season out of starting tight end Mike Gesicki, who had a 65/655/2 slash line on 83 targets, while averaging 1.58 yards per route run. Gesicki also had slash lines of 53/703/6 and 73/780/2 and with the Dolphins in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while averaging a combined 1.52 yards per route run, but he fell to slash lines of 32/362/5 and 29/244/2 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, while averaging a combined 0.87 yards per route run. 

However, those struggles can easily be blamed on playing in an offense that didn’t use the tight end much in the passing game in Miami in 2022 and then playing on a bad offense in New England in 2023. His career seemed to get back on track in 2024 now in a more effective and tight end friendly offense in Cincinnati and he could remain a solid receiving tight end in 2025, though it is worth noting he is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon.

The Bengals don’t have bad depth at tight end, but all of their other tight ends have their issues. Tanner Hudson has averaged 1.66 yards per route run over the past two seasons, but plays sparingly and is now heading into his age 31 season. Erick All, a 2024 4th round pick, averaged 1.48 yards per route run as a rookie, but had his rookie season ended by a torn ACL after 231 snaps in nine games, which, coupled with his collegiate injury history, dampens his long-term projection and reportedly could cost him the entire 2025 season. 

Drew Sample ranked second on the team in routes run from the tight end spot last season, but he averaged just 0.46 yards per route run last season and has averaged just 0.73 yards per route run in six seasons in the league, so he would be best as a blocking specialist. The Bengals have a great wide receiver duo, probably the best in the league, and tight end Mike Gesicki is a good third option, but the rest of this group leaves something to be desired, which affects their overall grade slightly.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Probably the best player to come out of the Bengals’ recent drafts is running back Chase Brown, a 5th round pick in 2023. Brown started the 2024 season in a timeshare with veteran Zach Moss, after playing sparingly (93 snaps) as a rookie, but Moss went down for the season in week 8, leaving Chase Brown to have a heavy usage the rest of the way, averaging 23.6 touches (18.9 carries, 4.7 catches) per game in eight games without Moss, as compared to 11.8 touches (9.8 carries, 2.0 catches) per game in the eight games that Moss played.

Moss is set to return in 2025, but Brown drastically outplayed him last season, averaging 4.32 YPC to Moss’ 3.27 YPC, so it seems highly unlikely that they will go back to splitting carries, leaving Moss as purely a change of pace backup. Moss does have some bounce back potential, as the 2020 3rd round pick averaged 4.29 YPC on 484 carries in his first four seasons in the league, prior to struggling in 2024, but, even if he bounces back, he is best as a backup. He’s also missed at least three games due to injury in all five seasons in the league, with 23 games missed total.

The Bengals also added Samaje Perine in free agency and, while he will probably finish third on the team in carries, having averaged just 59.3 carries per season and 4.05 yards per carry in eight seasons in the league, he is a useful pass catcher, averaging 1.40 yards per route run as a receiver in his career, as opposed 0.85 for Moss, so he could be used in obvious passing situations and cut into Brown’s passing game opportunities, though Brown also has averaged 1.38 yards per route run in his career and should continue having a significant passing down role. Brown won’t see the same usage he had down the stretch last season, with Moss back from injury to spell him on early downs and Perine added to spell him on passing downs, but Brown is still the clear feature back, a role he should be at least solid in. 

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As much of a problem as the Bengals’ defense was last season and figures to still be in 2025, the Bengals’ offensive line is arguably just as big of a problem. Burrow obviously benefits significantly from the weapons he has in the passing game, but, even with those weapons taken into account, his production is especially impressive when you consider the offensive line he has in front of him. Last season, they ranked 29th in both PFF pass block grade and PFF run block grade and, going into 2025, there isn’t much reason for optimism.

One potential reason for optimism is the likelihood that they will get better seasons from their two starting tackles, Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims. They finished last season with PFF grades of 58.2 and 57.8 respectively, but Mims is a 2024 1st round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025, while Brown had previously never had a PFF grade worse than 66.1 in a season, with four seasons above 70 in his previous six seasons. Still only going into his age 29 season, Brown has obvious bounce back potential, especially if he is healthier, after missing six games last season. Even Mims and Brown don’t improve in 2025, both are locked into starting roles because the best alternative is Cody Ford, who has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a 50.6 PFF grade across 688 snaps in 2024.

Even if Mims and/or Brown are better in 2024 though, the Bengals still have a concerning situation on the interior of the offensive line. Cordell Volson and Alex Cappa were the primary starting guards last season and finished with PFF grades of 59.3 and 50.5 respectively. Cappa is no longer with the team, but his replacement Lucas Patrick is unlikely to be significantly better. Patrick had a decent 64.6 PFF grade last season, but that came in just 10 starts. Additionally, that was one of just two seasons out of nine seasons in the league in which he has finished above 60 on PFF, and he’s now going into his age 32 season. He’s also never made more than 15 starts in a season, with just 64 starts in nine seasons in the league, due to injuries and ineffectiveness, so he’s a desperation option as a season-long starter.

Volson, meanwhile, has made 48 starts in three seasons in the league since the Bengals took him in the 4th round pick in 2022, but he has finished with PFF grades in the 50s in all three seasons and, already in his age 27 season, he is unlikely to be better in 2025. The Bengals did use a third round pick in this year’s draft on Dylan Fairchild, who could push either Patrick or Volson for their starting job, but it’s far from a guarantee that he would be any better as a rookie.

Meanwhile at center, Ted Karras was the Bengals’ only regular starter to finish last season with a PFF grade above 60 and he has never finished below 60 on PFF in any of his nine seasons in the league, while starting 94 out of a 100 possible games over the past six seasons, but his 64.1 PFF grade in 2024 was still underwhelming and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so he could decline in 2025. Overall, this still looks like a very underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, Trey Hendrickson is by far the Bengals’ best defensive player. He isn’t a good run defender, but he has finished above 80 overall on PFF in three straight seasons despite his lack of run defense because he has finished above 90 in pass rush grade on PFF in each of those three seasons, while totaling 43 sacks, 48 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate in 49 games. He also combined for 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 31 games from 2020-2021, so he has five straight seasons of elite pass rush on his resume. His age is a concern, now going into his age 31 season, and there is a chance he isn’t even on the Bengals’ roster this season if they can’t come to terms with him on an extension, but, if he is on the roster, he should remain a very valuable edge defender even if he does decline, as he would be declining from such a high base point.

Aside from Hendrickson, the rest of this edge defender group was a big problem in 2024, as their next three edge defenders in terms of snaps played, Joseph Ossai (573 snaps), Sam Hubbard (521 snaps), and Myles Murphy (353 snaps), finished with PFF grades of 58.3, 58.9, and 56.5 respectively. Hubbard retired this off-season and will essentially be replaced by first round pick Shemar Stewart, who has a massive upside, but who is extremely raw and also currently involved in his own contract dispute with the team. Even if Stewart eventually comes to terms with the Bengals, which seems likely, given Stewart’s lack of options, he will still have missed valuable off-season work, which is especially a concern for a player who is so raw. I wouldn’t expect him to have a significant positive contribution in year one.

Myles Murphy is also a recent first round pick, selected 29th overall in 2023, but he has been a bust thus far in his career, finishing with PFF grades in the 50s in both seasons in the league, while averaging just 21.9 snaps per game. Equally ineffective as a run stopper and pass rusher, Murphy has just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate in 30 career games. The good news is he is still only going into his age 23 season and has significant untapped upside, so he could take a step forward, potentially a big step forward, in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Ossai, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick and will remain involved in the Bengals’ edge defender rotation in 2025. He did have a 68.4 PFF grade in 2023, but that came on just 177 snaps and it’s his only season above 60 on PFF in his career. Also a poor run defender, Ossai has managed just 9.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 47 career games. He’s also still relatively young, going into his age 25 season in 2025, so he could also have untapped upside and take a step forward this season, but that seems even less likely than Murphy taking a step forward. 

The Bengals also have 2021 4th round pick Cam Sample, who missed all of last season with a torn achilles, but who could be part of the rotation at the edge defender position in 2025. Sample was underwhelming in his first two seasons in the league in 2021 and 2022, with PFF grades of 52.1 and 58.0 on snap counts of 310 and 411 respectively, but he did take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023, with a 61.6 PFF grade across 375 snaps, though obviously that’s a small sample size and his 2024 injury complicates matters significantly. Stewart, Murphy, and Ossai have potential and it seems likely at least one will contribute in a significant way in 2025, but this is still an underwhelming position group outside of Trey Hendrickson, who significantly elevates the overall grade of this group for now, but might not even be on their final roster.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Outside of Hendrickson, the Bengals’ best defensive player might be interior defender BJ Hill, who had a 70.2 PFF grade across 710 snaps last season, his seventh season above 65 on PFF in seven seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70. Equally reliable as a run stopper and pass rusher, Hill has 23.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 112 career games. His age is a concern, as he’s now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but chances are he’ll remain at least a capable every down player in 2025.

Hill was the only Bengals interior defender to finish above 60 on PFF last season, but the Bengals do at least have a pair of second year players who were highly drafted and could take a step forward, as 2024 2nd round pick Kris Jenkins had a 45.4 PFF grade across 496 snaps as a rookie and 2024 3rd round pick McKinnley Jackson had a 53.0 PFF grade across 248 snaps as a rookie. It’s not a guarantee that either one improves in 2025, but there is a good chance at least one of them does, even if only to the level of being a capable rotational player.

The Bengals also added veteran TJ Slaton to the mix in free agency, but he’s an underwhelming option. The 6-5 330 pounder had decent years in 2022 and 2023, with PFF grades of 61.7 and 65.1 on snap counts of 333 and 627 respectively, primarily due to solid run defense, but he’s never been a good pass rusher, with a career pressure rate of 5.0%, and in 2024 he struggled as a run defender too, leading to a 45.3 PFF overall grade across 427 snaps. He has some bounce back potential as a situational run stopper, but he’s still an underwhelming option at a position group that still looks underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Top linebacker Logan Wilson is the other option for the Bengals’ best defensive player aside from Hendrickson. He had a solid 72.4 PFF grade in 2024, but he got hurt after 743 snaps in 11 games and missed the rest of the season, which was a huge blow to this defense. He’s been a solid every down linebacker for years though, with PFF grades of 72.7 and 62.6 on snap counts of 954 and 1,068 in 2022 and 2023 as well, and, still only in his age 29 season, he should remain a solid every down linebacker in 2025.

He’ll probably start next to second round rookie Demetrius Knight. Knight replaces Germaine Pratt, who had a 60.6 PFF grade across 1,075 snaps last season. Knight has a higher upside than Pratt, but isn’t necessarily an upgrade over Pratt in the short-term. The Bengals also have 4th round rookie Carter Barrett and veteran free agent addition Oren Burks, but Barrett is unlikely to make a significant positive impact as a rookie, while Burks has flashed potential with PFF grades of 79.2, 71.3, and 83.0 over the past three seasons, but only on snap counts of 156, 326, and 147 and he’s now going into his age 30 season, having started just 17 of 108 career games, so he is best as backup. This isn’t a bad position group as long as Logan Wilson stays healthy, but it isn’t a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Cornerbacks

Slot cornerback Mike Hilton was the Bengals’ highest rated cornerback by a wide margin last season, with a 75.9 PFF grade across 737 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season, ahead of his age 31 season in 2025, and he wasn’t replaced by a comparable veteran. Instead, the Bengals’ cornerback depth group is led by a bunch of recent draft picks that have yet to develop. Dax Hill probably has the highest upside of the bunch. 

A 2022 first round pick, Hill began his career at safety and struggled, playing just 130 mediocre snaps as a rookie and then receiving a 50.9 PFF grade across 1,089 snaps upon becoming a starter in 2023, but he seemed to do better when he moved to cornerback in 2024, with a 68.2 PFF grade, although that came in a very small sample size, as his season was ended by a torn ACL after 262 snaps in five games. Hill’s injury recovery complicates his long-term projection even more, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has always had talent, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he picked up where he left off in 2024, or even if he took another step forward.

DJ Turner was a second round pick in 2023. He struggled as a rookie with a 51.5 PFF grade across 827 snaps, but he took a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024 with a 67.8 PFF grade, albeit across only 508 snaps before his season was also ended by injury. He’s also an unproven commodity, but he has the talent to pick up where he left off before getting hurt last season, or even to get better, though obviously that’s not a guarantee.

Cam Taylor-Britt, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2022. He also struggled as a rookie, with a 56.1 PFF grade across 590 snaps, but he has been better over the past two seasons, though largely by default, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 63.6, while starting all 29 games he has played. Taylor-Britt, Turner, and Hill all have upside, but none of them have proven themselves as a consistently above average starter yet and there is no guarantee that happens in 2025. Meanwhile, Josh Newton, a 2024 5th round pick who had a 60.9 PFF grade across 504 snaps as a rookie, is likely to be their primary depth option.

At safety, the Bengals will start Geno Stone and Jordan Battle, who, a year ago, looked like they would be a good safety duo. A 7th round pick in 2020, Stone flashed potential with a 72.2 PFF grade across 450 snaps in 2022 and then seemingly broke out as an above average starter in 2023, with a 71.9 PFF grade across 950 snaps, but he declined significantly to a 53.1 PFF grade across 1,100 snaps in 2024. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and has bounce back potential, but there is no guarantee he returns to his 2023 form.

Battle, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and flashed a lot of potential as a rookie with a 82.5 PFF grade across 524 snaps, but he struggled in 2024 with a 53.1 PFF grade and ultimately spent his second season in the league primarily as a backup, playing just 464 snaps in 15 games behind veteran Vonn Bell, who had a 62.1 PFF grade across 705 snaps. Bell is no longer with the team, giving Battle a clear path to a starting job and he still has a high upside, only going into his age 25 season, but it’s tough to know what to expect from him, given the disparity between how he played in 2023 and how he played in 2024.

If Stone and Battle don’t bounce back, the Bengals don’t really have another good option. The only other safeties on the roster who have ever played a snap are 2022 5th round pick Tycan Anderson, who has played just one snap in his career, and 2024 7th round pick Daijahn Anthony, who has played just 12 snaps. They could move Hill back to safety if needed, but that would hurt their depth at cornerback and he has shown himself to be better at cornerback than safety anyway. Overall, this secondary has some upside, but also a lot of downside.

Grade: B-

Kicker

Evan McPherson struggled as the Bengals’ kicker last season, costing the Bengals 6.33 points compared to average, while also missing five games due to injury. He has been better in the past though, with 11.10 points above average in 2021 and 4.05 points above average in 2023, though he did also cost the Bengals 2.95 points compared to average in 2022. Still, he has been overall a solid kicker in his four seasons in the league and he is still only going into his age 26 season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The 2025 Bengals are a very similar team to the 2024 Bengals, a top-heavy roster with minimal depth behind their few stars. If they end up having to trade Trey Hendrickson, that problem will be even worse. However, if they keep Hendrickson, the Bengals could still sneak into the post-season, something they almost did in 2024. The Bengals are unlikely to make a deep playoff run even if they make the post-season though.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC North

Miami Dolphins 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Dolphins

Quarterback

The Dolphins fell from a 11-6 record in 2023 to a 8-9 record in 2024. The biggest reason for this by far was the decline of their offense, which went from ranking 2nd in yards per play and 5th in first down rate in 2023 to just 23rd in yards per play and 16th in first down rate in 2024. Part of the problem was quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed six games due to injury and, in his absence, a trio of quarterbacks, Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle, combined to complete just 63.5% of their passes for an average of 6.09 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

However, the Dolphins offense was not the same as 2023 even in games Tua Tagovailoa started. The biggest reason for that is the Dolphins completely changed their offensive philosophy. In 2022 and 2023, when Tagovailoa combined to complete 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.51 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions in 30 starts, Tagovailoa had an average depth of target of 10.1 and 8.2 respectively. In 2024, that dropped to 6.1, while his time to throw dropped to the lowest in the league at 2.25. 

In 2022, the Dolphins had 66.5% of their targets go to wide receivers, second in the NFL, which continued into 2023, when 67.8% of targets went to wide receivers, third in the NFL, but in 2024, that dropped to 50.4%, just 27th in the NFL, while 23.1% of targets went to running backs, 3rd in the NFL, and 26.6% went to tight ends, 7th in the NFL. The result was Tagovailoa set a new career high in completion percentage at 72.9%, but his yards per attempt fell to 7.19, a significant drop off from 2022-2023.

Dolphins didn’t change their offensive play caller and had mostly the same personnel in their receiving corps in 2024 as they did in 2022 and 2023, so a huge shift like that was surprising and there are a lot of factors that explain it. Part of it was simply that the Dolphins wanted to prevent Tagovailoa from taking too many hits, as he has missed time with injury in four of five seasons in the league, with 20 games missed total and a concerning history of concussions. 

Keeping Tagovailoa from taking hits is a goal that was made harder by a decline in the Dolphins offensive line from 2023 to 2024, as they went from ranking 16th in PFF pass block grade and 18th in PFF run block grade in 2023 to 21st in PFF pass block grade and 28th in PFF run block grade in 2024, which I will get into more later. The decline of their offensive line is another reason why the Dolphins felt the need to get the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quicker and into the hands of running backs and tight ends, rather than letting plays develop downfield for wide receivers. Additionally, this offense saw a significant decline by #1 wide receiver and deep threat Tyreek Hill in 2024, which I will also get more into later. Hill’s decline further contributed to the Dolphins’ offensive philosophy shift.

None of those factors are likely to change in 2024. In fact, the Dolphins suffered more losses on the offensive line this off-season, Hill is now another year older, going into his age 31 season, and another injury plagued season by Tagovailoa is likely to further necessitate getting the ball out of his hands quicker, so this new offense is here to stay, despite the underwhelming results from a year ago. The Dolphins did at least find a new backup quarterback for Tagovailoa, signing Zach Wilson in free agency.

Wilson has potential, as a former #2 overall pick who is still only going into his age 26 season, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be much of an upgrade over what the Dolphins had at quarterback behind Tagovailoa last season. In 33 career starts, Wilson has completed just 57.0% of his passes for an average of 6.34 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, good for a QB rating of just 73.2. The Dolphins also used a 7th round pick on a developmental quarterback in Quinn Ewers, but he figures to spend his whole rookie season as the third string quarterback, unless something goes horribly wrong ahead of him on the depth chart. With Tagovailoa’s injury history and a shaky backup situation, there are definitely concerns in this quarterback room, even if Tagovailoa does have a high upside when everything is right.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Dolphins’ offensive line got worse from 2023 to 2024 and looks likely to get even worse from 2024 to 2025. Last off-season, the Dolphins lost right guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams to free agency. This off-season, the Dolphins lost left tackle Terron Armstead to retirement, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season in 2025. Armstead still had a 89.4 PFF grade in 15 starts last season (821 snaps), despite his age and a concerning injury history, so his loss will be massive for this offensive line.

In his place, the Dolphins will likely turn to Patrick Paul, a 2024 2nd round pick who was drafted to be Armstead’s successor, but who struggled mightily with a 44.9 PFF grade across 338 snaps (three starts) as a rookie. He actually spent his rookie season as the Dolphins’ 4th tackle, with veteran Kendall Lamm being the swing tackle, posting a 72.7 PFF grade in seven starts. Lamm is also no longer with the team, which further hurts their offensive line. Paul still has upside and could take a big step forward in his second season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, he will still be a massive downgrade from Armstead.

Paul will start opposite Austin Jackson. A first round pick in 2020, Jackson struggled to start his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of his first three seasons, but he has been better over the past two seasons, though his 60.0 PFF grade in 2024 was a noticeable dropoff from his 68.4 PFF grade in 2023. He also has missed time due to injury in four of five seasons in the league, with a total of 28 games missed in five seasons, including nine games missed last season, and, overall, he has not lived up to his draft slot. 

Jackson is still only going into his age 26 season, so he could have further untapped upside, but most likely he will remain a decent, unspectacular starter in 2025. He will probably stay at right tackle, but it’s possible the Dolphins opt to move him to the left side and start Paul at right tackle. Meanwhile, Larry Borom will likely be the swing tackle. He’s made 27 starts in four seasons in the league and finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 48.0 and 53.8 over the past two seasons and, even for a swing tackle, he’s an underwhelming option.

Center Aaron Brewer was the Dolphins’ second best offensive lineman last season, with a 74.1 PFF grade across 1,139 snaps (17 starts). That was a career best year for the 2020 undrafted free agent, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as he also had a 71.6 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, though he did have a 59.9 PFF grade in 17 starts in his first full season as a starter in 2022. Even being a former undrafted free agent, with the underwhelming 2022 season on his resume, he still figures to be an above average starter in 2025, off of back-to-back seasons, still only going into his age 28 season.

If there is one reason for optimism on this offensive line, it’s the addition of veteran guard James Daniels on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal. Daniels has finished above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league and was on his way to a career best year in 2024, with a 92.9 PFF grade through 209 snaps, but he tore his achilles early in week 4 and missed the rest of the season. Now coming off of a significant injury, it seems highly unlikely he will go back to the level of play he had to start last season, especially since it was such a small sample size and since his previous career best PFF grade was 71.8 in 2021. Daniels is still only in his age 28 season, so he could be a solid starter if he’s healthy, but that’s not a guarantee.

However, it wouldn’t be hard for Daniels to be an upgrade over Robert Jones, a free agent departure who had a 56.1 PFF grade across 17 starts at guard last season. The Dolphins also added Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round of the draft and he could start at the other guard spot, even as a rookie. He might struggle as a rookie, but it also wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Liam Eichenberg, who had a 53.1 PFF grade in 14 starts last season. 

Eichenberg could still be in the mix to keep his starting job if Savaiinaea isn’t ready to start week 1 and Eichenberg is also a former second round pick, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league (52 starts) and, already going into his age 27 season, he is running out of time to make good on the upside he came into the league with and would likely continue to struggle if the Dolphins needed him to start in 2025. The additions of Daniels and Savaiinaea do help the Dolphins at guard, but they don’t offset the loss of Terron Armstead at left tackle and, overall, an already mediocre offensive line from a year ago looks likely to be even worse this season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, #1 receiver Tyreek Hill declined significantly in 2024, going from a 119/1710/7 slash line on 170 targets with 3.20 yards per route run in 2022 and a 119/1799/13 slash line on 171 targets with 3.82 yards per route run in 2023 to a 81/959/6 slash line on 123 targets with 1.75 yards per route run in 2024. Part of that is due to a reduced usage in the offense, but Hill also did not seem to be himself and saw his yards per target drop from 10.29 in 2022-2023 to 7.80 last season. Now going into his age 31 season, with the Dolphins’ new offensive philosophy here to stay, Hill is highly unlikely to bounce back to his 2022-2023 levels of production and could easily decline further.

Jaylen Waddle, the #2 receiver, also had a down year in 2024, going from a 75/1356/8 slash line on 117 targets with 2.59 yards per route run in 2022 and a 72/1014/4 slash line on 104 targets with 2.63 yards per route run in 2023 to a 58/744/2 slash line on 83 targets with 1.53 yards per route run in 2024. Unlike Hill, that is primarily due to the change in offensive philosophy, as Waddle is still only heading into his age 27 season and his 8.96 yards per target in 2024 is not too far off from his 10.72 yards per target average in 2022-2023. He will likely continue seeing a reduced role in 2025, but he’s still an above average #2 receiver who is in the prime of his career.

Tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De’Von Achane were the primary beneficiaries of the Dolphins’ new offensive philosophy. Smith, a free agent acquisition last off-season, set career highs in catches, yards, touchdowns, targets, and yards per route run, with a 88/884/8 slash line on 111 targets and 1.95 yards per route run, proving to be a great value on a 2-year, 8.4 million dollar deal. He was especially good in the 11 games Tagovailoa started, with a 62/626/5 slash line in those games, which extrapolates to a 96/967/8 slash line over 17 games. Unfortunately, Smith now wants a massive raise ahead of the second and final year of that deal and the Dolphins have been unwilling to give him that, leading to him holding out and wanting a trade if he and the Dolphins can’t come to an agreement. 

Smith had never exceeded 50 catches or 582 receiving yards in a season prior to last season and has a career average of just 1.57 yards per route run, so it’s understandable why the Dolphins wouldn’t want to pay top dollar for a player coming off of a breakout year in his eighth season in the league, especially with Smith now going into his age 30 season. However, he’s a big part of the offense, even if he regresses somewhat in 2025, and the Dolphins have another good option at tight end, so the Dolphins will ultimately have to hope they can come to a reasonable agreement with him, or risk having to trade away a key player from an offense that already has a lot of concerns.

Achane, meanwhile, ranked 2nd in the league among running backs with 87 targets last season, taking them for a 78/592/6 slash line and 1.45 yards per route run, ranking 1st among running backs in catches, 1st in receiving yards, 1st in receiving touchdowns, and 12th in yards per route run. That was a big increase from the 2023 3rd round pick’s rookie year, but he did show promise as a receiver in his first season in the league, with a 27/197/3 slash line on 37 targets and 1.12 yards per route run, so it’s not a huge surprise that he produced at the level he did with a significantly expanded opportunity in 2024. He will likely produce at a similar level in 2025 in a similar target share, potentially an even higher target share, given the state of the Dolphins’ offensive line, Tyreek Hill continuing to age on the wrong side of 30, and Jonnu Smith holding out.

Outside of Hill, Waddle, Smith, and Achane, the Dolphins have very little else in the receiving corps. Malik Washington was fifth on the team with just 36 targets and the nominal #3 wide receiver finished with a 26/223/0 slash line and 0.86 yards per route run. Washington was only a 6th round pick in 2024, so it’s not surprising he struggled as a rookie, but he’s not a guarantee to be any better in his second season in the league. He will compete with free agent acquisition Nick Westbrook-Inhine, who has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, for the #3 wide receiver role in 2025.

At tight end, the Dolphins’ other options behind Smith are 2023 undrafted free agent Julian Hill and veteran free agent addition Pharaoh Brown. Hill has averaged 0.53 yards per route run in his career and is a poor blocker as well, leading to him receiving PFF grades of 40.9 and 37.2 on snap counts of 343 and 515 in two seasons in the league, while Brown is a blocking specialist with 72 catches in 85 career games who is now heading into his age 31 season. Brown’s blocking ability likely gives him the edge for the #2 tight end job, but neither option is prepared to take over as the primary pass catching tight end if Jonnu Smith isn’t on the roster in 2025. The Dolphins have a good two wide receiver/one tight end trio, but this is a very top-heavy receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

In addition to having a big passing game role, De’Von Achane will have a big role on the ground. As a rookie, he was a change of pace back and missed six games to injury, limiting him to 103 carries, as opposed to 209 carries for Raheem Mostert, but in 2024, that flipped, as Achane played 17 games as the lead back and had 203 carries, while Mostert was limited to 85 carries in 13 games. Achane did see his yards per carry average drop off from 7.77 as a rookie to 4.47 last season, but it was always highly unlikely that he would continue that high average from his rookie year in a bigger role, especially as the Dolphins’ offense declined around him.

Achane was still much more effective last season than Mostert, who averaged just 3.27 YPC. Mostert wasn’t brought back this off-season, which could open up an even bigger role for Achane, though the Dolphins will probably want to avoid overloading the 5-8 188 pound Achane. Behind Achane on the depth chart, the Dolphins have 2024 4th round pick Jaylen Wright, veteran free agent addition Alexander Mattison, and 6th round rookie Ollie Gordon. Wright and Mattison figure to compete for the #2 running back role. 

Wright has the higher upside and figures to be the favorite for the backup job, but he was underwhelming as a rookie, averaging just 3.66 YPC on 68 carries and averaging just 0.10 yards per route run. Mattison has been underwhelming throughout his career though, averaging 3.90 YPC on 716 carries in six seasons in the league, with 0.99 yards per route run, so the Dolphins have to be hoping Wright can take a step forward in his second season in the league. The rookie Gordon, meanwhile, figures to start his rookie year as the #4 running back. Depth is a concern behind Achane, but Achane is one of the better all-around running backs in the league, posing a threat to defenses as a runner and a receiver.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins were solid on the defensive side of the ball last season, ranking 9th in yards per play allowed and 11th in first down rate allowed, but there are reasons for concern on this side of the ball as well. Of the 12 players who played at least 500 snaps for the Dolphins on defense last season, only five of them remain on the roster and one of those five is likely to not be on their team by the time the season starts. Some of these departed players were among their most important last season and, while the Dolphins did add some replacements, overall their replacements are not nearly as good as the players they lost.

One of those key players was Calais Campbell, who led the Dolphins’ defense with a 82.3 PFF grade, doing so on 616 snaps. Campbell excelled as a run defender, ranking first among interior defenders on PFF with a 85.9 run defense grade and he also added 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. A lesser off-season departure is DaShawn Hand, who played 564 snaps last season and had a 60.5 PFF grade. To replace them, the Dolphins used a first round pick on Kenneth Grant, who has a big upside, but who is highly unlikely to be as good as a rookie as Campbell was last season. 

Grant will start next to Zach Sieler, one of the few good defensive players from last season who remains on this roster. Sieler finished with a 78.9 PFF grade across 749 snaps last season, playing equally well as a run defender and a pass rusher, with PFF grades above 70 in both aspects, including 10 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. For Sieler, it was his third season above 70 on PFF in the past four seasons, but he is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, which is a significant concern, considering he is one of the few talented holdovers from 2024. Even if he doesn’t drop off significantly, a slight decline from him in 2025 would further hurt this defense.

With Hand also not being retained, the Dolphins could rely more heavily on Benito Jones as their top reserve in 2025, even though he had a 51.3 PFF grade across 481 snaps last season. That wasn’t anything out of the ordinary for Jones, who has never finished above 60 on PFF in five seasons in the league, including a career worst 37.4 PFF grade across a career high 566 snaps as recently as 2023. He figures to continue struggling in 2025, this time likely in a larger role.

Other reserve options include 5th round rookie Jordan Phillips, 7th round rookie Zeek Biggers, and free agent addition Matthew Butler, a 2022 5th round pick who has played 168 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league. All three are likely to struggle in a significant role in 2025 and there is a good one at least one of them has to play that significant role if any of their top-3 interior defenders misses time with injury. With Calais Campbell and Da’Shawn Hand gone and Zach Sieler now on the wrong side of 30, this position group looks significantly worse than a year ago, even with a first round pick in Kenneth Grant being added to the mix.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

If there is one reason for some optimism on this defense, it’s the fact that they are likely to be healthier, after having the seventh most adjusted games lost to injury of any defense in the league last season. Most notably, the Dolphins should get a healthier season out of edge defenders Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips was limited to 134 snaps in four games by a knee injury last season, his second straight seasons affected by a major injury, after a torn achilles ended his 2023 season and limited him to 366 snaps in eight games. 

Phillips had a 87.7 PFF grade in his last healthy season in 2022 and seemed to be on his way to a similar season in 2023, with a 79.8 PFF grade at the time he got hurt. Between 2022 and 2023, Phillips had 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games. Still only going into his age 26 season, Phillips has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthy and return to form in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee, given his recent injury history.

Chubb, meanwhile, didn’t play a snap last season as he struggled to recover from a brutal knee injury suffered in week 17 of the 2023 season, which included a torn patellar tendon. He has now missed 43 games in seven seasons in the league and has had two significant knee injuries in his career, so there is no guarantee he ever returns to form. However, he has been a high level pass rusher throughout his career, with 39.5 sacks, 57 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 73 career games, and he had his best season in 2023 before getting hurt, with a 88.8 PFF grade and 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 16 games. He could be a useful player even at less than his best and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him.

In the absence of Phillips and Chubb, the Dolphins were led in snaps played at the edge defender position last season by Emmanuel Ogbah, who struggled with a 59.7 PFF grade across 734 snaps, particularly struggling as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate. Ogbah is no longer with the team, which could be addition by subtraction, especially if Phillips and/or Chubb stay relatively healthy and bounce back somewhat to form in 2025. 

The Dolphins also got a solid season out of 2024 1st round pick Chop Robinson last season, as he had a 70.0 PFF grade across 565 snaps as a rookie, while totaling 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Now going into his second season in the league, he could easily take a step forward and be even better in 2025. In a best case scenario, Chubb and Phillips stay healthy, play at or close to their prime form, and form a talented trio with Robinson, who takes a best step forward in his second season in the league, but a lot has to go right for that scenario to come to fruition. 

If any of those players miss time with injury in 2025, their depth outside of the top-3 is a concern. Aside from Robinson, Quinton Bell played the most snaps of any returning Dolphins edge rusher in 2024 and he had a decent 64.8 PFF grade, but the 2019 7th round is highly unproven, playing just 258 snaps last season, after playing just 61 snaps total in the first five seasons of his career. Other options include Mohamed Kamara, a 2024 5th round pick who played 26 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, and Cameron Goode, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 87 snaps in three seasons in the league. This group has a lot of potential upside, but also a lot of potential downside.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Dolphins also lost linebacker Anthony Walker this off-season, but he finished with just a 48.0 PFF grade across 516 snaps in 11 games last season, so his absence could be addition by subtraction. He will be replaced by Tyrel Dobson, who replaced Walker down the stretch last season, after being added mid-season. Dobson has had an interesting past two seasons. Dobson played 550 snaps in 2023 with the Bills as an injury replacement and excelled, with a 89.5 PFF grade, despite being a 2019 undrafted free agent who had previously played just 471 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, while never finishing above 60 on PFF. 

In 2024, Dobson signed with the Seahawks as a free agent and continue to play well in coverage, but his run defense dropped off significantly and he was ultimately let go mid-season for reasons that likely had to do with more than just football, as he had a 65.8 PFF grade across 603 snaps at the time of his release. The Dolphins then picked him up and he played about the same as he did in Seattle, with a 66.8 PFF grade across 251 snaps in five games. 

Dobson finished the 2024 season with a 67.3 PFF grade, which was a significant drop off from the year before, but he did play a new career high of 854 snaps, despite changing teams mid-season, and, in terms of coverage grade, he ranked 4th among linebackers on PFF at 82.9.  Now going into 2025, he seems likely to remain a high level coverage linebacker, still only in his age 27 season, but whether or not his run defense bounces back remains to be seen.

Dodson will start next to Jordyn Brooks, who was solid as an every down linebacker last season, with a 71.3 PFF grade across 1,039 snaps. That was a career best year for him though, as he had previously finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league. Brooks is a former first round pick and could just be a late bloomer, but it’s also very possible he regresses somewhat in 2025 and fails to repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

The Dolphins also added some depth options this off-season, signing veterans Willie Gay and KJ Britt in free agency. Gay was a second round pick in 2020 and showed some promise early in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of his first three seasons in the league, but he has fallen below 60 on PFF in each of the past two seasons, including a 44.1 PFF grade across just 277 snaps last season, which is why he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. Britt, meanwhile, struggled with a 44.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps last season in the first significant action of his career, after the 2021 5th round pick played just 234 snaps across the first three seasons in the league from 2021-2023. Both Britt and Gay would likely struggle if forced into a significant role by an injury to either Dodson or Brooks, but Dodson and Brooks are at least a solid starting duo.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Dolphins’ secondary is the group that lost the most this off-season. Both of their starting safeties from a year ago, Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer, are no longer with the team, nor is starting cornerback Kendall Fuller. None had a great season in 2024, but they all finished with PFF grades in the 60s and the players the Dolphins added to replace them are underwhelming. Additionally, the Dolphins are likely to be without top cornerback Jalen Ramsey this season, as he is expected to be traded or released prior to the start of the season, despite a 76.9 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. For the sake of this preview, I will project this unit as if Ramsey is not currently on the team.

Kader Kohou is the Dolphins’ top returning cornerback and he was decent with a 64.5 PFF grade across 708 snaps, but he is no one’s idea of a #1 cornerback, as he has played primarily on the slot and has received PFF grades in the 60s in each of his three seasons in the league. For outside cornerback options, the best the Dolphins have is mediocre holdovers Storm Duck and Cam Smith, mediocre free agent additions Kendall Sheffield and Artie Burns, and 5th round rookie Jason Marshall.

Smith probably has the most upside of the bunch, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2023, but he has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, playing just 155 snaps total. Last season, he was behind Storm Duck on the depth chart, even though Duck was an undrafted rookie who had just a 55.5 PFF grade across 359 snaps. Artie Burns was a first round pick in 2016 and showed promise early in his career, but he’s played just 938 snaps in his past seven seasons and now is heading into his age 30 season, so he’s only a desperation starting option. Sheffield, meanwhile, is a 2019 4th round pick who struggled with PFF grades of 47.5 and 40.3 on snap counts of 697 and 524 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and has since played just 169 snaps in four seasons in the league. It’s very possible the rookie Marshall will have to make starts for the Dolphins this season, even though it’s likely he would struggle if he did so.

At safety, the Dolphins are expected to start a pair of free agent additions in Ashtyn Davis and Ifeatu Melifonwu, both of whom are underwhelming options. Both are former third round picks, in the 2020 and 2021 drafts respectively, but neither have ever been a regular starter and neither have shown enough potential as reserves to give me confidence that they will be capable starters. Davis has averaged just 328 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, while making a total of just 22 starts, and Melifonwu has averaged just 219 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, while making a total of just 14 starts. Other options at safety include 5th round rookie Dante Trader and career special teamer Elijah Campbell, who has played just 284 defensive snaps in seven seasons in the league. This overall looks like arguably the worst secondary in the league.

Grade: C

Kicker

Jason Sanders is entering his 8th season as the Dolphins’ kicker. He has been inconsistent throughout his career, finishing below average in three of seven seasons, but he has overall accounted for 14.00 points above average in seven seasons in the league and he has had some great seasons, including a 2020 season in which he led the league with 13.91 points above average and a 2024 season in which he ranked 7th in the league with 7.66 points above average. It’s tough to know what to expect from him in 2025, but most likely he will be a slightly above average kicker, though not as good as he was a year ago.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Dolphins had significant losses this off-season, particularly on defense and, overall, look significantly worse as a team than they were a year ago. They could be healthier, after finishing with the 5th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, but they still have a lot of key players with significant injury histories. They also will face a tougher schedule this season, after having the easiest opponents strength of schedule of any team in the league last season. Overall, it seems unlikely they will even reach last season’s win total of eight.

Update: The Dolphins did trade Jalen Ramsey and also Jonnu Smith as well, but they got back Minkah Fitzpatrick to upgrade their safety room and replaced Smith with Darren Waller, which isn’t a big downgrade. Overall, this team looks like they are in better shape than they were a month ago, but I would still expect them to finish below .500.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in AFC East

New York Giants 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Quarterback

The Giants made a surprise playoff appearance in 2022, going 9-7-1 after winning a total of just 22 games in the previous five seasons, but there was reason to believe their 2022 season was a fluke, as they won 8 of their 9 games by 8 points or fewer, went just 2-6 against playoff qualifiers in the regular season, and finished just 23rd in DVOA. The Giants didn’t seem to think so, changing little about their roster from 2022 and 2023 and re-signing quarterback Daniel Jones to a 4-year, 160 million dollar deal, but that decision proved to be a mistake, as the Giants went 6-11 in 2023 and 3-14 in 2024, making that 2022 season look like an obvious fluke, as the only season in their past eight seasons in which they won more than six games.

The Giants won fewer games in 2024 than they did in 2023, but statistically they were a better team in 2024, as they ranked dead last in the league in yards per play differential (-1.13%) and first down rate differential (-6.90%) in 2023, but slightly improved to 30th in yards per play differential (-0.89) and 27th in first down rate differential (-3.15%) in 2024. That was in large part due to the fact that they actually had a good rookie class, with each of their six draft picks turning into starters by the end of the season. However, that wasn’t nearly enough to erase the fact that they didn’t draft a player from 2020-2023 who made a Pro Bowl as a member of the Giants or the fact that they had one of the worst quarterback situations in the league.

The Giants officially ended Daniel Jones’ tenure as their starting quarterback when they released him midway through last season. After giving him a deal that guaranteed him 81 million two off-seasons ago, Jones proceeded to start just 16 more games for the team and complete 64.7% of his passes for an average of 5.95 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in those 16 starts, good for a 76.6 QB rating. After releasing Jones, the Giants gave starts to Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito, who were not any better, and, overall the Giants finished last season ranked 30th in the NFL with a team QB rating of 77.8.

This off-season, the Giants overhauled their quarterback room. DeVito is the only quarterback from last season who remains on the roster, but the 2023 undrafted free agent has been underwhelming in eight career starts, completing 65.3% of his passes for an average of 6.12 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, and, in this overhauled quarterback room, he probably isn’t any higher than 4th on the depth chart and is unlikely to make the final roster, barring a trade ahead of him on the depth chart.

To try to improve this group, the Giants signed a pair of veterans in Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston and then traded back up into the first round to select Jaxson Dart. This is a better quarterback room by default, but all three options still have concerns. Dart has as much upside as any quarterback in this draft class and could ultimately prove to be the long-term solution for the Giants, but enters the league pretty raw and, with two veterans ahead of him on the depth chart, he might not see any action as a rookie. If he does, it’ll be down the stretch, if the Giants want to get him some game action in what will likely end up being another lost season for the team.

Wilson will likely be the starter for most of the season. Going into his age 37 season, Wilson has looked like a shell of himself in recent years, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 58 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions with 4.34 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 178 carries in 41 starts over the past three seasons, after completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 292 touchdowns, and 87 interceptions with 5.54 YPC and 23 touchdowns on 846 carries in 158 starts in his first 10 seasons in the league. He’s highly unlikely to ever bounce back close to his prime form and could continue declining in 2025. He’s barely a starting caliber quarterback anymore and it’s not surprising he had to settle for being a stopgap in free agency this off-season.

Winston, meanwhile, is a former #1 overall pick who has never lived up to the billing, completing 61.2% of his passes for an average of 7.62 YPA, 154 touchdowns, and 111 interceptions in 87 starts in 10 seasons in the league. He has settled into being a backup in recent years, making just 17 starts over the past five seasons and is likely to remain one in 2025, now in his age 31 season. Winston is a bit of a weird fit on a team that has a veteran stopgap and a young developmental quarterback, so he’s by far the most likely of the bunch to be traded if the Giants opt to move one of these quarterbacks, but the Giants may want to keep him around just to have as many options as possible on the roster. It’s possible all three of these quarterbacks see action at some point in a quarterback room that is better than last season, but largely by default. 

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Of the six players in the Giants’ impressive 2024 draft class, #6 overall pick wide receiver Malik Nabers was the best of the bunch. Despite poor quarterback play, he finished his rookie season with a 109/1204/7 slash line and 2.17 yards per route run. He wasn’t terribly efficient, as his 170 targets ranked second in the NFL, while his receiving yards only ranked 7th, but that should improve as he develops further and gets better quarterback play. Still only going into his age 22 season, Nabers looks likely to be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come.

The Giants didn’t make any significant upgrades to their receiving corps this off-season, so Nabers could still continue having a massive target share. Wan’Dale Robinson ranked second on the team with 140 targets (12th in the NFL) and he was highly inefficient, taking those targets for just a 93/699/3 slash line and 1.21 yards per route run. Robinson was a second round pick in 2022 and averaged 1.76 yards per route run and 7.32 yards per target as a rookie in 2022 and 1.31 yards per route run and 6.73 yards per targets in his second season in 2023, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He’s only going into his age 24 season and may still have some untapped potential, so he could have a more efficient season in 2025 than 2024, especially with improved quarterback play, but he has a long way to go to even have a decent efficiency level.

Darius Slayton, the #3 receiver last season, was more efficient with a 39/573/2 slash line on 71 targets, but he only averaged 1.08 yards per route run. Slayton’s career yards per route run average of 1.36 is better than that though and, with Wilson, Winston, and Dart all having more of a propensity to throw downfield than any of the Giants quarterbacks last season, it’s possible Slayton sees more targets at the expense of Robinson. Slayton had an average depth of target of 13.7 last season, in line with his career average of 13.5, while Robinson averaged a 4.0 average depth of target last season, in line with his career average of 4.5. 

The Giants could also opt to involve their tight ends and running backs more in the passing game this season, after they ranked 22nd in the league with 15.9% of their targets going to running backs, 32nd in the league with 11.6% of their targets going to tight ends, and 2nd in the league with 72.6% of their targets going to wide receivers. If more balls go to tight ends, the primary beneficiary of that would be Theo Johnson, another member of last year’s draft class. 

The 2024 4th round pick was the Giants’ starting tight end for most of last season, starting 11 of the 12 games he played, but only received 43 targets, which he took for a 29/331/1 slash line, with an average of 0.90 yards per route run. Now in his second season in the league, he could take a step forward and, even if he doesn’t, the Giants may still opt to give him more opportunity. Johnson also has a good chance to play more games, after missing five games last season.

Behind their top-3 wide receivers and top tight end, the Giants’ depth options include wide receiver Jalin Hyatt, a 2023 3rd round pick who has only averaged 0.72 yards per route run in his career, but who entered the league as a raw prospect and could still have untapped upside, only going into his age 24 season, tight end Daniel Bellinger, a 2022 4th round pick who has averaged just 0.87 yards per route run in his career and probably doesn’t have any untapped upside, and blocking specialist Chris Mannhertz, who is a good blocker, but has just 29 catches in 134 career games and is now going into his age 33 season. With no significant additions being made to this group this off-season, this is likely to remain an underwhelming receiving corps, but they are at least a young group with upside.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Tyrone Tracy was another rookie starter for the Giants last season, starting 12 of the 17 games he played and leading the team in carries with 192, despite being just a 5th round pick. Devin Singletary was signed to a 3-year, 16.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season to be the starter and he had averaged 4.56 YPC on 888 carries in five seasons in the league prior to last season, but that came with the Bills and Texans and he struggled to translate that to a much worse offense with the Giants, averaging just 3.87 YPC on 113 carries.

Tracy, on the other hand, averaged 4.37 YPC on 192 carries, but Singletary did have a better missed tackle rate (22.1% vs 17.8%) and a better carry success rate (47.8% vs. 44.3%), with Tracy accumulating 31.3% of his rushing yardage on ten carries of 15+ yards, while Singletary only had four carries for 15+ yards, accounting for 22.4% of his rushing yardage. Carry success rate tends to be more consistent on a year-to-year basis than long runs and if Tracy can’t continue to break big runs at the same rate, he could see his YPC average decline significantly in 2025.

Tracy is likely to still be the lead back though. Tracy also was the primary passing down back last season, but he was underwhelming, taking 53 targets for a 38/284/1 slash line and 0.92 yards per route run, while dropping six passes, 4th most among running backs. That was surprising because Tracy was a former wide receiver in college, before being converted to running back. Singletary has never been much of a pass catcher in his career either, averaging 0.71 yards per route run in six seasons in the league, so the Giants opted to try to find a better pass catching back in the draft, using a 4th round pick on Cam Skattebo. 

Skattebo was a highly productive all-around back in his final collegiate season, rushing for 1,711 yards and 21 touchdowns on 293 carries (5.84 YPC), while posting a 45/605/3 slash line, leading to him finishing 5th in Heisman voting, but underwhelming athleticism dropped him in the draft. There is a good chance he becomes the Giants’ primary passing down back even as a rookie, which could be a decent target share if the Giants opt to use their running backs in the passing game more this season, but it’s also likely that Skattebo finishes third on the team in carries. He adds depth to a still underwhelming overall backfield.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Giants’ offensive line was also a problem last season, ranking 28th on PFF in pass blocking grade and 23rd in run blocking grade. They didn’t make any significant additions to this group this off-season, but they are hoping for a healthier season out of left tackle Andrew Thomas. That would be a big boost to this offense, as Thomas has finished above 75 on PFF in each of the past four seasons, but that’s also far from a guarantee, as he’s missed 23 games over those four seasons, including 18 in the past two seasons and 11 in 2024. Thomas, the 4th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, is still only going into his age 26 season and has a huge upside if he can stay on the field, but there is a good chance he ends up missing more time with injury.

The primary way the Giants dealt with Thomas’ absence last season was moving right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor to left tackle and plugging in Evan Neal at right tackle. Neal was the 7th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but hasn’t come close to living up to his draft slot, which is why he began last season as a reserve. He did seem to be improved last season in his 7 starts, posting a 61.2 PFF grade, after receiving PFF grades of 41.8 and 39.8 in his first two seasons in the league, but he has still only made 27 starts in three seasons in the league and his improvement last season was largely by default. 

With Thomas set to return from injury, Eluemunor will move back to right tackle. He’s been a solid starter for the past three seasons (46 starts), but he’s now going into his age 31 season and has declined in each of the past two seasons, from a 75.3 PFF grade in 2022 to a 68.7 PFF grade in 2023 to a 63.2 PFF grade in 2024. Moving back to his natural position of right tackle could help him in 2025, but his best days are probably behind him at this point. 

Still, Eluemunor remains locked into a starting role. Neal still has upside going into his age 25 season, but if he ends up being a week 1 starter in 2025, it will be at guard, where he will compete with incumbents Greg Van Roten and Jon Runyan. Van Roten was the better of the two last season, with a 63.4 PFF grade to Runyan’s 56.1 PFF grade, but Van Roten is the more likely of the two to go to the bench in 2025. Van Roten has finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of the past seven seasons, making 88 starts over that stretch, but he is now going into his age 35 season and could easily decline in a significant way in 2025.

Runyan is an underwhelming option too, receiving PFF grades of 64.6, 62.6, 56.5, and 56.1 over the past four seasons, while making 63 starts, but the Giants signed him to a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal last off-season and it seems likely they will give him another shot in 2025. Regardless of which two start at guard between Neal, Van Roten, and Runyan, the Giants figure to get pretty mediocre guard play. The Giants also used a 5th round pick on Marcus Mbow and, if things get dire enough, he could find himself in a starting role at some point in his rookie season, though he likely would struggle as well.

At center, John Michael Schmitz will remain the starter. The 2023 2nd round pick struggled as a rookie with a 41.4 PFF grade across 13 starts and, while he took a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024, with a 61.4 PFF grade across 25 starts, he was still an underwhelming starter. He could take another step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, but that is far from a guarantee and it’s also possible he regresses somewhat. Overall, he looks like a pretty underwhelming starting center, but the only alternative the Giants have is Austin Schlottmann, a 2018 undrafted free agent who has made just 14 starts in seven seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF just once. The Giants desperately need Andrew Thomas to stay much healthier than he has the past two seasons because the rest of this offensive line is a big problem.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

While the Giants’ offense struggled last season, ranking 30th in both yards per play and first down rate, their defense was better, though largely by default, ranking 24th in yards per play allowed and 15th in first down rate allowed. That being said, there are reasons they could be better defensively in 2025. For one, the Giants should get a healthier season out of Dexter Lawrence, who had another dominant season in 2024 with a 89.9 PFF grade, after PFF grades of 91.6 and 92.9 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but he missed five games due to injury last season.

Injuries have otherwise not been an issue for Lawrence in his career, costing him three games in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season and, still in his prime in his age 28 season, he should have a healthier and equally dominant season in 2025. Also a high-level run defender, with PFF run defense grades over 80 in each of the past three seasons, Lawrence is even better as a pass rusher, with 21 sacks, 45 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 44 games over the past three seasons.

The rest of this interior defender position group struggled mightily last season, making Lawrence’s absence an even bigger deal. After Lawrence, the Giants next four interior defenders in terms of snaps played all finished below 60 on PFF. The Giants attempted to improve this position group this off-season by signing veteran free agents Chauncey Golston, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Jeremiah Ledbetter and then using a third round pick on Darius Alexander, all of whom figure to play a role this season.

Golston is probably the best of the bunch. He’s been a hybrid edge/interior defender throughout his four seasons in the league with the Cowboys, since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, but he figures to play more on the interior than the edge with the Giants, given where the Giants have the most need. He’s developed into a solid player, with PFF grades of 69.3, 66.1, and 65.3 over the past three seasons, first in limited roles in 2022 and 2023, with snap counts of 278 and 322, and then in a much bigger role in 2024, with a snap count of 790. He’s at his best as a pass rusher, finishing above 60 in pass rush grade in all four seasons in the league, while totaling a 8.6% pressure rate. He might not play quite as big of a role in 2025 as he did last season, but he figures to be heavily involved as an interior pass rusher and could also see base package snaps on the edge as well.

The rest of the new additions have issues though. Ledbetter had a 63.0 PFF grade across 441 snaps last season, particularly playing well against the run, but he has only played more than 100 snaps three times in seven seasons in the league and last season was the first time he did so and finished above 60 on PFF, with PFF grades of 59.4 and 49.0 on snap counts of 349 and 369 in 2017 and 2023 respectively. Now going into his age 31 season, it seems unlikely that Ledbetter will repeat his career best season again in 2025 and he could easily struggle.

Roy Robertson-Harris has been a solid player for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in five of the last seven seasons, but he finished last season with a career low 52.9 PFF grade across 398 snaps and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue struggling. The rookie Alexander, meanwhile, has the upside to be a starter long-term, but could also struggle in 2025.

None of the holdovers are likely to be much help either. Rakeem Nunez-Roches led this position group with 608 snaps played last season, a career high for the 10-year veteran, and he struggled mightily with a 46.8 PFF grade. He’ll play a smaller role this season, but that is unlikely to help his effectiveness, as he’s now finished below 60 on PFF in four of the past five seasons, including three seasons below 50, and he’ll be in his age 32 season in 2025. He is very likely to continue struggling.

Elijah Chatman was third at this position group in snaps played last season with 423, but the undrafted rookie predictably struggled, with a 58.9 PFF grade, and he’s no guarantee to be any better in 2025, if he can even crack the rotation in a much deeper position group than a year ago. Meanwhile, deep reserves DJ Davidson and Jordon Riley were even worse with PFF grades of 41.0 and 34.3 on snap counts of 261 and 248 last season.

Davidson is a 2022 5th round pick who has struggled across 548 snaps in three seasons in the league, while Riley is a 2023 7th round pick who also had a 33.1 PFF grade across 135 snaps as a rookie, so both are likely to continue struggling in 2025, if they even make the final roster and have roles, which they probably won’t. This position group is a lot deeper than a year ago and they should get a healthier season out of Dexter Lawrence, who significantly elevates this position group by himself, but they still have a lot of players who are likely to struggle in rotational roles.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Giants should be deeper on the edge this season as well. Last season, they had a talented edge defender duo of Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, who finished with PFF grades of 78.5 and 69.0 respectively across snap counts of 865 and 593 respectively, but depth was an issue. This season, the Giants add #3 overall pick Abdul Carter into the mix and he figures to make a big rookie year impact. Burns, Thidodeaux, and Carter should rotate heavily and play the lions’ share of the snaps on the edge this season.

Burns should remain the best of the bunch. The 2019 1st round pick isn’t a great run defender, but he has finished above 70 on PFF as a pass rusher in every season except his rookie year, including two seasons above 80 as a pass rusher, while totaling 47 sacks, 58 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate in 81 games over that span. Still only going into his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him again in 2025. The Giants paid a hefty price acquiring him from the Panthers last off-season, trading away a second round pick and giving Burns a 5-year, 141 million dollar deal that makes him the 5th highest paid edge defender in the league, but it was worth it, given that he is one of the Giants’ few blocking blocks.

Thibodeaux is also a former first round pick, selected 5th overall by the Giants in 2022. He hasn’t quite lived up to his draft slot, receiving PFF grades of 71.9, 58.4, and 69.0 on snap counts of 740, 981, and 593 in three seasons in the league, but he has finished above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all three seasons, while accumulating 21 sacks, 26 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate in 43 career games, and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, so he could have further untapped upside. Even with Carter being added to the mix, Thibodeaux figures to still play a significant snap count in 2025.

As I mentioned earlier, Chauncey Golston could play some snaps on the edge in base packages. The Giants also added Victor Dimukeje for additional depth. The 2021 6th round pick had a solid season as a reserve in 2023, with a 67.5 PFF grade across 385 snaps, and he was even better in 2024, with a 75.1 PFF grade, but he was limited to just 157 snaps in 11 games, and then this off-season, he tore his pectoral, which has him questionable for the start of the 2025 season. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher over the past two seasons, with 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 15.7% pressure rate across 27 games, despite a limited role. If he’s healthy in 2025, he could easily pick up where he left off, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s still relatively inexperienced, only having played 839 snaps in four seasons in the league. This is a deep and talented position group.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Along with Dexter Lawrence, the Giants should also get a healthier season out of Bobby Okereke, who missed five games last season. Prior to getting hurt, Okereke had a 74.9 PFF grade across 734 snaps, his third straight season as an above average every down player, after PFF grades of 73.3 and 79.0 on snap counts of 970 and 1,128 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, having missed just two games in five seasons in the league aside from last season, I would expect Okereke to continue playing at a high level and to stay mostly healthy.

The other starting linebacker job will likely go to Micah McFadden, who has decent PFF grades of 65.6 and 62.8 on snap counts of 736 and 668 over the past two seasons, but he could face competition from Darius Muasau, a 2024 6th round pick who took over as the starter down the stretch last season when Okereke was hurt. Muasau was predictably underwhelming though, finishing the season with a 58.9 PFF grade across 435 snaps, and would be best as a reserve in 2025, as long as everyone is healthy. Elevated by the return of Okereke from injury, this is a solid linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Another two rookies played significant roles in the secondary for the Giants last season, as second round pick Tyler Nubin played 789 snaps in 13 games and he a 65.6 PFF grade, while third round pick Dru Phillips excelled on the slot with a 77.5 PFF grade across 614 snaps in 14 games. Both will remain in those roles and are likely to play at similar, if not better levels in 2025 and beyond. The Giants also upgraded the other safety spot next to Nubin, moving on from Jason Pinnock, who had a 54.5 PFF grade across 976 snaps last season, and replacing him with Jevon Holland, who they signed to a 3-year, 45.3 million dollar deal in free agency. 

Holland has been inconsistent through four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2021 and he is coming off of a career worst 63.0 PFF grade in 2024, but he also had a 84.7 PFF grade in 2021 and a 90.4 PFF grade in 2023, to go with a pair of seasons in the 60s. Still only going into his age 25 season, Holland has a lot of bounce back potential in 2025 and beyond and has the talent to be a more consistent safety going forward.

The Giants also signed cornerback Paulson Adebo to a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal. A 2021 3rd round pick, Adebo showed his potential in 2023 with a 78.6 PFF grade across 948 snaps in 15 games and he had a decent 63.3 grade in 2024, but his season was ended by injury after 436 snaps in seven games. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and has upside, but his 2023 season looks like a fluke when you look at his 4-year career overall and he’s also missed 16 games due to injury in those four seasons.

The third cornerback job along with Phillips and Adebo is up for grabs, likely either going to Deonte Banks or Cor’Dale Flott. Banks was a first round pick in 2023, but has not lived up to his draft slot, with PFF grades of 50.9 and 62.2 on snap counts of 788 and 666 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Still only going into his age 24 season, Banks still has upside and could take a big step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee. Flott, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2022 and has been inconsistent through three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 65.8, 53.4, and 62.2 on snap counts of 335, 519, and 666 respectively. He’s also still only going into his age 24 season and still has time to develop into a starting caliber player, but he doesn’t have the same upside as Banks.

Whoever loses the starting job between Banks and Flott will serve as the #4 cornerback. At safety, the top backup will likely be Dane Belton again, after he had a 63.0 PFF grade across 460 snaps last season. A 2022 4th round pick, Belton struggled in his first two seasons in the league with PFF grades of 30.6 and 51.7 across snap counts of 390 and 295 and is still pretty unproven, but he’s not bad as far as reserves go. This is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Graham Gano has been the Giants’ kicker for the past five seasons. He excelled in his first three seasons with the team, accounting for 25.30 points above average in those three seasons, but he fell to 9.20 points below average in 2023 and, while he wasn’t quite as bad in 2024, actually accounting for 0.42 points above average, he did miss seven games due to injury and was primarily replaced by Greg Joseph, who cost the Giants 2.92 points compared to average. Now Gano is heading into his age 38 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, and he could easily struggle in 2025. The Giants do have competition for him in Jude McAtamney, but he is a 2024 undrafted free agent who attempted just one kick as a rookie, so it’s tough to know what to expect for him. Gano is likely to keep his job, despite his age.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Giants’ offense figures to continue struggling in 2025, but they should be better by default, as their quarterback situation is likely to be better by default. Meanwhile, their defense has a lot of promise, with Dexter Lawrence and Bobby Okereke likely to be healthier and Abdul Carter and Jevon Holland being added, among others. The Giants also have promising second year players on both sides of the ball that could take a step forward, as a result of the Giants’ seemingly nailing their 2024 draft class. This probably isn’t a playoff team, especially since their schedule is very tough, but they figure to be much more competitive than they have been in the past couple seasons.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in NFC East

Baltimore Ravens 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Ravens

Quarterback

The Ravens had the most efficient offense in the league last season, leading the league in both yards per play (6.85) and first down rate (36.22%). They were led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, who had one of the best seasons ever by a quarterback. Jackson completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 8.80 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, good for a 119.6 QB rating, the 4th best single season QB rating of all time. That alone would have been highly impressive, but the dual threat Jackson also added 915 yards and 4 touchdowns on 139 carries (6.58 YPC), good for the 7th most rushing yards ever by a quarterback in a season. The Ravens lost in the second round of the post-season, but they still had 7.30 yards per play and a 40.35% first down rate in that game, losing because they lost the turnover margin by 3, a metric which tends to be very volatile on a week-to-week basis. 

As is usually the case when you have the best offense in the league and an all-time great season by a quarterback, there isn’t anywhere to go but down, but Jackson has had some other very elite seasons in his career, winning the MVP in 2019 and 2023 with QB ratings of 113.3 and 102.7 and rushing totals of 1,206 and 821 respectively. In his other three seasons as a starter (2020, 2021, and 2022), Jackson wasn’t as good, combining for a 92.5 QB rating and averaging 845 rushing yards per season, while missing 12 games and seeing all three seasons end with injuries, but, overall, Jackson has established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Jackson hasn’t missed a game with injury since 2022, but he still does have a concerning injury history and takes more hits than the average quarterback because of his playing style, so the Ravens prioritized upgrading the backup quarterback spot this off-season, signing ex-Cowboy Cooper Rush. Rush is a career backup who has only made 14 starts in 8 seasons in the league, but his 83.8 QB rating isn’t bad for a backup. He would obviously be a huge downgrade from Jackson if he had to step in and play, but the same can be said of any quarterback backing up an elite quarterback like Jackson, so that isn’t necessarily a knock on Rush as a backup.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Jackson also had a great supporting cast around him last season, arguably the best he’s ever had and, while there are some reasons to be concerned that his supporting cast won’t be quite as good again in 2025, the Ravens do return 10 of 11 starters from a year ago. The one who didn’t is left guard Patrick Mekari and, while he was barely decent with a 60.4 PFF grade across 998 snaps, his likely replacement Andrew Vorhees looks like a clear downgrade, as the 2023 7th round pick made the first three starts of his career last season and had just a 57.2 PFF grade.

Other left guard options include 3rd round rookie Emery Jones, a collegiate tackle, who could move inside, Ben Cleveland, a disappointing 2021 3rd round pick who has played just 670 nondescript snaps in four seasons in the league (seven starts), and Joe Noteboom, who has finished above 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, but who is a career backup with 35 starts in seven seasons in the league, just 11 of which came at guard, and who is now going into his age 30 season. Whoever ends up with the starting job would likely be a liability. 

The rest of this offensive line should stay the same in 2025, but there is some concern about left tackle Ronnie Stanley. A 2016 first round pick, Stanley was an elite player early in his career and he received a 71.4 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but that was his best single season PFF grade since 2020 and from 2020-2023 injuries cost him 36 games. It’s possible Stanley has put his injuries behind him and will continue being an above average starter, but that’s far from a guarantee, especially since Stanley is now entering his age 31 season.

Center Tyler Linderbaum was the Ravens’ best offensive lineman last season, with a 78.1 PFF grade, which is in line with how the 2022 1st round pick has played throughout his career, finishing with PFF grades of 74.7 and 78.3 in his first two seasons in the league, while making 49 of a possible 51 starts in three seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 25 season, Linderbaum’s best years could still be ahead of him and, even if they aren’t, he should still remain a well above average center in 2025 and beyond.

On the right side, the Ravens have a pair of players who were first-time starters last season. Right tackle Roger Rosenstein was a 2nd round rookie and had a decent 66.9 PFF grade. He should remain a capable starter with the upside for more, now going into his second season in the league. Right guard Daniel Faalele, meanwhile, is a 2022 4th round pick who had a 60.5 PFF grade last season, after playing just 355 mediocre snaps in his first two seasons prior. Faalele should remain an underwhelming starting option again in 2025. Overall, this offensive line has some talent, but also some concerns, especially with Patrick Mekari gone and Ronnie Stanley getting up there in age with a history of injury and inconsistency.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Nelson Agholor, the Ravens #3 receiver last season, was not technically a starter on this offense, given how much the Ravens use two tight end sets, and he only played 420 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season either. He was mediocre last season though, with a 14/231/2 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run, and the Ravens likely upgraded on him by signing DeAndre Hopkins instead. Hopkins was once a perennial 1000+ yard receiver, surpassing that number in seven of ten seasons from 2014-2023, with an average slash line of 88/1155/8 and 2.13 yards per route run over that stretch, but he fell to a 56/610/5 slash line in 2024 and now is going into his age 33 season.

Part of his struggles last season have to do with him being traded mid-season and struggling to pick up the playbook in his new home in Kansas City and, even still, he did have a decent 1.71 yards per route run average on the season, mostly limited by a lack of playing time. Having a full off-season with his new team in Baltimore should help him but, given his age, it’s highly unlikely he will bounce back to his prime form and it’s possible he could decline further.

Fortunately, the Ravens won’t need a big role out of Hopkins unless one of their other pass catchers gets hurt. Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman were their top-2 wide receivers in 2024, finishing with a 74/1059/4 slash line on 116 targets with 2.25 yards per route run and a 45/756/9 slash line on 72 targets with 1.69 yards per route run respectively. Flowers, a 2023 first round pick, also had a 77/858/5 slash line on 108 targets with 1.64 yards per route run as a rookie and looks likely to remain an above average wide receiver for years to come.

Bateman is also a former first round pick, selected in 2021, and, while he hasn’t quite lived up to his draft slot, he was a useful #2 receiver in 2024. Last season was a career best season for him though and he’s only averaged 1.46 yards per route run in his career, while missing 15 games across his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, so he could regress and/or miss more time with injury in 2025, but it’s also possible he’s permanently turned a corner as a player and, even if he does miss more time with injury, the Ravens have a better insurance policy now with Hopkins being added. 

The Ravens top-2 tight ends also played significant roles last season, as Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely finished with snap counts of 683 and 626 respectively. In the passing game, they had a 55/673/11 slash line on 69 targets and 1.88 yards per route run and a 42/477/6 slash line on 58 targets and 1.55 yards per route run respectively. Andrews is an accomplished veteran with an average 62/790/7 slash line on 90 targets with 2.12 yards per route run in seven seasons in the league, but he’s heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon. 

Meanwhile Likely, a 2022 4th round pick, is starting to come into his own, posting career highs in catches, yards, targets, touchdowns, and yards per route run last season, after a 36/373/3 slash line on 60 targets with 1.39 yards per route run as a rookie and a 30/411/5 slash line on 40 targets with 1.45 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2023. With Likely still only going into his age 25 season, we could see this tight end split shift even more in his direction in 2025, though both figure to remain heavily involved in the offense, after the Ravens ranked 5th in the league with 30.2% of their targets going to tight ends last season.

Outside of their top-3 wide receivers and top-2 tight ends, the Ravens lack experienced depth. However, Charlie Kolar, the #3 tight end, has flashed potential in very limited action (517 snaps) through three seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in 2022, averaging 2.05 yards per route run, while impressing as a blocker. On top of that, while #4 wide receiver Tylan Wallace has only averaged 1.10 yards per route run in four seasons since being selected in the 4th round in 2021, he did have a 1.77 yards per route run average last season. This is a talented receiving corps overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

A big part of why the Ravens’ offense was so successful last season is that Lamar Jackson had by far the best running back he had ever played with, as Derrick Henry excelled in the Ravens’ offense in his first season in Baltimore, turning back the clock to rush for 325 yards and 1,921 touchdowns on 16 carries (5.91 YPC). Henry is a future Hall of Famer who rushed for 3,567 yards and 33 touchdowns on 681 carries (5.24 YPC) in a 2-year span from 2019-2020, but he fell to just a 4.29 YPC over the next three seasons, totaling 3,642 yards and 35 touchdowns on 848 carries, in part due to a declining offense around him in Tennessee, but also seemingly in part due to his age. 

Henry obviously silenced the age concerns last season, but he’s now going into his age 31 season and it’s still fair to note that running backs do tend to drop off in their late 20s and early 30s. In fact, on average, a 28-year-old running back is about 4 times as likely to surpass 1000 yards in a season as a 31-year-old running back like Henry, a huge drop off over just three seasons. Even beyond Henry’s age, the history of running backs after elite seasons like he had last season does not work in his favor. In NFL history, 32 running backs have rushed for at least 1,700 yards in a season prior to 2024. Of those 32 running backs, 29 finished with fewer rushing yards the following season and, on average, running backs who rush for 1,700 yards in a season see their rushing total decline by 35.49% and their yards per carry decline by 14.17%. Henry might not drop off completely in 2025, but odds are against him repeating last season’s dominant performance, which would definitely hurt this offense.

Henry ranked second in the league in carries last season with 325, but the Ravens may try to limit his carries somewhat this season, in an attempt to keep him fresh, especially down the stretch. Obviously Lamar Jackson takes off and runs with the ball frequently, but the rest of the Ravens’ running backs left something to be desired last season. Justice Hill ranked second on the team among running backs with 47 carries last season and, while he took them for 4.85 yards per carry, that was largely the result of primarily playing in long yardage passing situations against defenses expecting a passing play, as Hill had a mediocre 44.7% carry success rate. His numbers last season were largely in line with his career numbers of 4.65 YPC and a 46.4% carry success rate on 250 carries in six seasons in the league, since being selected in the 4th round in 2019.

Hill probably isn’t a candidate for a significantly expanded role as a runner in 2025, but the Ravens should get a healthier season out of Keaton Mitchell, who flashed a lot of promise as a rookie in 2023, with a 8.43 YPC average across 47 carries, before barely playing in 2024 due to injury, limited to 2.00 YPC on 15 carries in five games. Mitchell is a 2023 undrafted free agent who is only 5-8 190, but, if he is back to full health, he could be a useful change of pace back behind Henry.

Hill will likely remain the primary passing down back, after averaging 1.64 yards per route run and posting a 42/383/3 slash line on 51 targets last season, though it’s worth noting that he averaged just 0.72 yards per route run in his first five seasons in the league, so last season’s performance might be a fluke. Derrick Henry has only caught 174 passes in 136 career games though, so he won’t play a big passing down role and, while Mitchell has averaged 2.02 yards per route run in his career, the Ravens probably want to avoid giving him too many touches, leaving Hill to remain the primary passing down back. Derrick Henry probably won’t have as good of a season as he did last season, but he should still remain a talented lead back and the Ravens have a promising passing down back in Justice Hill and a promising change of pace change in Keaton Mitchell as well.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

The Ravens’ defense wasn’t as good as their offense in 2024, finishing the regular season ranked 6th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed, but they got significantly better down the stretch, ranking #1 in both of those metrics from week 11-18. The primary reason for that was changes they made in their secondary, which I will get into later. Going into 2025, this defense looks very similar to a year ago, particularly on the defensive line and in the linebacking corps.

At the edge defender position, the Ravens return their top-4 in terms of snaps played from a year ago. Kyle Van Noy led the way with a 75.4 PFF grade, particularly playing well as a pass rusher, with 12.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate. For Van Noy, it was his third season in the past four years above 70 on PFF and his fourth in the past six years, but he’s going into his age 34 season in 2025, so he could easily decline.

With Van Noy getting older, it’s likely that Odafe Oweh will be the Ravens’ top edge defender in 2025. A first round pick in 2021, Oweh got off to a start slow start to his career, with PFF grades of 67.9 and 56.8 across snap counts of 615 and 633 in his first two seasons in the league, but he has come into his own over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 80.7 and 71.2 on snap counts of 436 and 636, particularly playing well as a pass rusher, with 15 sacks, 22 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 30 games in 2023 and 2024 combined. Still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Oweh figures to continue playing at an above average level in 2025.

To potentially offset any decline from Van Noy, the Ravens used a second round pick on Mike Green, who projects as a future starter opposite Oweh. The Ravens also have Tavius Robinson, Adisa Isaac, and David Ojabi. Robinson is a 2023 4th round pick who struggled with a 55.3 PFF grade across 335 snaps as a rookie, before taking a small step forward in year two with a 62.3 PFF grade across 485 snaps. Isaac is a 2024 3rd round pick who only played 32 snaps as a rookie, but who could take a step forward in year two. Ojabo is a 2022 2nd round pick who has largely been a bust to this point in his career, with just 379 snaps played in three seasons in the league, but who still has theoretical upside in his age 25 season in 2025. Kyle Van Noy getting older will hurt this position group, but the Ravens also have a bunch of young options who could take a step forward in 2025.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Ravens bring back their top-3 in terms of snaps played from a year ago. Nnamdi Madbuike led this position group with 812 snaps last season and figures to do so again in 2025. He’s averaged 741 snaps played per season over the past three seasons and has been one of the best interior pass rushers in the league over that time, with 25 sacks, 33 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 51 games. He’s not nearly as good as a run defender, but his pass rush ability makes him a very valuable player and he’s still in his prime, in his age 28 season.

Travis Jones is the Ravens most well rounded interior defender, as the 2022 3rd round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in each of the past two seasons on snap counts of 452 and 599, while finishing above 60 both as a pass rusher and run defender in both seasons. As a pass rusher, he has 2.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 34 games over the past two seasons and he’s been even better against the run. Still only in his age 26 season, he should continue playing at a similar level across a similar snap count in 2025.

Broderick Washington also played a significant role at the interior defender position last season, with 448 snaps played, but he struggled with a 53.5 PFF grade. This is nothing new for him, as the 2020 5th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league. Also a poor run defender, Washington has just a 5.9% pressure rate in his career. Already in his age 29 season, Washington is who he is at this stage of his career and will likely continue struggling in 2025, but he will have to continue playing a significant role because the Ravens lack a better option. 

The Ravens did lose nose tackle Michael Pierce to retirement this off-season and, though he played just 231 snaps across 11 games, he could still be missed because he excelled with a 80.6 PFF grade. To replace him, the Ravens signed John Jenkins, but he is highly unlikely to be as good as Pierce. Jenkins was a solid run defender in his prime, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in two of the past three seasons, including a 53.1 PFF grade across 606 snaps in 2024, and now he’s heading into his age 36 season. The Ravens did use a 6th round pick on Aeneas Peebles, who has some upside as a developmental project, but he is unlikely to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. The Ravens have a pair of talented interior defenders in Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones, but the rest of this group leaves something to be desired.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Starters Roquan Smith and Trenton Simpson remain at linebacker. Smith had a down year in 2024 with a 65.2 PFF grade across 992 snaps, after grades of 70.6 and 80.1 on snap counts of 1,039 and 1,066 respectively in 2022 and 2023, but he did get better down the stretch in 2024, with a 75.6 PFF grade from week 11 on, coinciding with the Ravens’ significant defensive improvement down the stretch. Still only in his age 28 season, the former 2018 8th overall pick has a lot of bounce back potential in 2025. 

Simpson, meanwhile, struggled with a 58.7 PFF grade across 654 snaps, leading to him getting benched down the stretch for Malik Harrison, who wasn’t any better, with a 50.4 PFF grade across 371 snaps. Harrison is no longer with the team, which opens the door for Simpson to get back into the starting lineup. The 2023 3rd round pick is only going into his age 24 season and could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee. With Harrison gone, the only competition the Ravens have for him is Teddye Buchanan, a 4th round rookie who will likely begin his career as a reserve and who could easily struggle if forced into a significant role in year one. Roquan Smith has bounce back potential and elevates this position group, but, aside from him, this group is underwhelming.

Grade: B

Secondary

Roquan Smith’s improvement down the stretch is a big part of the reason why the Ravens’ defense improved down the stretch, but the biggest reason is the changes they made in the secondary. To begin the season, Marcus Williams and Ar’Darius Washington played safety together in sub packages, with Kyle Hamilton moving to the slot and Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens being the outside cornerbacks. 

Starting in week 11, Marcus Williams, who had a terrible 42.9 PFF grade, was benched and played just two snaps the rest of the way. In his absence, Washington and Hamilton became every down safeties, Marlon Humphrey moved to the slot in sub packages, and first round rookie Nate Wiggins took on a bigger role as an outside cornerback opposite Brandon Stephens. Washington excelled last season with a 80.3 PFF grade across 726 snaps, but he is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2021 undrafted free agent played just 145 snaps in his first three seasons, and he is also questionable for the 2025 season after an off-season achilles tear. Fortunately, the Ravens used a first round pick on Malaki Starks, who figures to take Washington’s place in the starting lineup. 

Starks might not be as good as Washington was last season, but he comes into the league with a lot of upside. Hamilton, meanwhile, is one of the best safeties in the league, as the 2022 1st round pick has received PFF grades of 82.3, 84.7, and 90.1 in his first three seasons in the league and could still have better days ahead, only going into his age 24 season. The biggest issue at safety with Washington out is depth, as the only other safeties on the roster are 2024 7th round pick Sanoussi Kane, who played 22 snaps as a rookie, 2024 undrafted free agent Beau Brade, who played 11 snaps as a rookie, and a pair of undrafted rookies Desmond igbinosun and Keondre Jackson, all of whom figure to struggle if forced into a significant role by an injury to one of the starters.

At cornerback, Brandon Stephens left as a free agent, but he had a 55.8 PFF grade across 1,047 snaps last season, so that could be addition by subtraction, especially since the Ravens replaced him with Chidobe Awuzie. Awuzie has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of eight seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70, but he does come with some risk, due to his age and injury proneness. He’s going into his age 30 season, hasn’t had a PFF grade above 70 since 2021, and has missed at least eight games in three of the past five seasons, while missing 31 games total over that stretch. 

Awuzie has some upside and it won’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Brandon Stephens, but he also comes with a lot of downside. The Ravens also lack depth at cornerback, which is a big problem, given Awuzie’s injury history. Their depth options include 2024 4th round pick TJ Tampa, who struggled across 18 snaps as a rookie, 2022 4th round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis, who has played just 172 mediocre snaps in three seasons in the league, and a pair of 6th round pick rookies, Bilhal Kone and Robert Longerbeam, all of whom would likely struggle if forced into a significant role by an injury ahead of them on the depth chart.

Fortunately, Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins remain and are a talented duo. Humphrey was a first round pick in 2017 and has finished above 60 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, including six seasons above 70 and a career best 81.0 PFF grade across 903 snaps in 2024. He might not be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in a career best year in 2024, but he should remain a high-level cornerback, still only in his late prime in his age 29 season. Wiggins, meanwhile, had a 70.7 PFF grade across 679 snaps as a rookie and could easily take another step forward in year two, still only in his age 22 season. The Ravens’ lack of depth in the secondary is a concern, but their top-3 cornerbacks and top-2 safeties are a very talented group.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Kicker was the Ravens’ Achilles heel last season, as Justin Tucker cost the Ravens 5.24 points compared to an average kicker, a big deal for a team that didn’t lose by more than one score all season. That was surprising, as Tucker is one of the best kickers of all-time, but he was getting up there in age and, between that and some off-the-field accusations that surfaced this off-season, the Ravens made the decision to move on from him and replaced him with 6th round pick Tyler Loop, who was arguably the best kicker in the draft class. It remains to be seen how good Loop can be at the NFL level, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be a significant upgrade over what Tucker was in 2024.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Ravens finished the 2024 season ranked 1st in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are more predictive year-to-year than a team’s win/loss record. They were especially good down the stretch and, if not for a fluky turnover margin in a loss to the Bills in which the Ravens won the first down rate battle by 2.67 and the yards per play differential by 7.56%, the Ravens could have gone on a deep playoff run last season. There are some reasons why they might not be quite as good again in 2025, including the fact that they are unlikely to have the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league again, but, overall, this looks like one of the best teams in the league.

Prediction: 16-1, 1st in AFC North

Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Quarterback

In 2022, the Eagles went 14-3 and made the Super Bowl, narrowly losing to the Chiefs. In 2024, the Eagles went 14-3 and won the Super Bowl, blowing out the Chiefs. In between in 2023, the Eagles went 11-6 and lost in the first round of the post-season. The biggest reason for their down year in 2023 was their defense. While their offense went from 3rd in first down rate and 6th in yards per play in 2022 to 6th in first down rate and 13th in yards per play in 2023 to 14th in first down rate and 11th in yards per play in 2024, their defense went from 10th in first down rate allowed and 1st in yards per play allowed in 2022 to 28th in first down rate allowed and 25th in yards per play allowed in 2023 to 1st in first down rate allowed and 1st in yards per play allowed in 2024. 

The Eagles have had some personnel changes over the years but the biggest difference between their 2023 defense and their 2022 and 2024 defense was coaching, as the 2022 Eagles had future Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon as defensive coordinator and the 2024 Eagles had the legendary Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, while the 2023 Eagles had a combination of Sean Desai and Matt Patricia, who were highly ineffective. The Eagles had some personnel losses this off-season, particularly on defense, which I will get into later, but most importantly they kept Vic Fangio for another year and he should continue getting the most of the players he has.

The Eagles do change offensive coordinators this off-season, with Kellen Moore taking the Saints’ head coaching job this off-season, but the Eagles have had a different offensive coordinator in each of the past three seasons, with current Colts head coach Shane Steichen coordinating their offense in 2022 and the since fired Brian Johnson coordinating their offense in 2023, and the changes haven’t really mattered much. To replace Moore, the Eagles promoted Kevin Patullo and he figures to keep things very similar on offense, particularly since they return 10 of 11 starters from a year ago.

The Eagles were a run heavy team last season, ranking 1st in the NFL in rush attempts with 621 and dead last in the NFL in pass attempts with 448, but that doesn’t mean their passing offense wasn’t effective, as they ranked 7th in yards per pass attempt with 7.85. That number probably would have been higher if Jalen Hurts hadn’t missed most of three games with injury, as Hurts finished the season completing 68.7% of his passes for an average of 8.04 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, good for a 103.7 QB rating that ranked 5th in the NFL.

Hurts benefits significantly from the talent around him on this offense, but has shown he is capable of winning games himself when needed. Over the past three seasons, Hurts has completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions in 47 starts. He has only averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game over that stretch, but is also a huge part of the Eagles’ running game, averaging 10.0 carries per game (472 total carries) over that stretch, taking them for 4.23 YPC and 42 touchdowns, while also making life easier for the Eagles’ running backs, as defenses have to worry about Hurts taking off and running himself. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect Hurts to continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and beyond.

When Hurts missed time with injury last season, he was replaced by Kenny Pickett (42 pass attempts) and Tanner McKee (45 pass attempts). McKee outplayed Pickett, completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 7.18 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, leading to Pickett being traded to the Browns this off-season. Pickett is the more experienced of the two, as McKee is a 2023 6th round pick who had never played a snap prior to last season, but clearly the Eagles viewed him as having the higher upside long-term. 

The Eagles also added Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the Pickett trade and used a 6th round pick on Kyle McCord, but Thompson-Robinson has a pitiful 45.2 QB rating in five career starts, while McCord is a raw rookie, so McKee should be considered the heavy favorite for the backup job. He’s a projection to a larger role and could struggle if forced into a significant stretch of starts in place of Hurts, who takes more hits than the average quarterback and has only made every start just once in five seasons in the league, but Hurts has also never played fewer than 15 games in a season and, as long as he stays relatively healthy, the Eagles have one of the better quarterback situations in the league.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Jalen Hurts benefited significantly from having a great receiving corps to throw to last season, as his top-2 wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, as well as his top tight end Dallas Goedert, all averaged over two yards per route run at 2.99, 2.11, and 2.20 respectively. Brown and Smith ranked 2nd and 23rd among eligible wide receivers in yards per route run, while Goedert ranked 2nd among eligible tight ends. 

Things could be even better in 2025, as Brown, Smith, and Goedert all missed significant time with injury last season, missing four games, four games, and seven games respectively. In the eight games in which all three played, the Eagles went 8-0. In games where AJ Brown played, the Eagles went 16-1. In games where Devonta Smith played, the Eagles went 15-2. In games where Dallas Goedert played, the Eagles went 12-2. All three have some injury history, but none of them have ever missed as many games as they missed last season and all three have a good chance to be healthier in 2025.

Despite missing four games and playing on a run-heavy offense, Brown still had a 67/1079/7 slash line last season, on just 97 targets. Since entering the league in 2019, Brown ranks 4th in the NFL with 7,026 receiving yards, despite always playing on run heavy offenses, averaging 2.64 yards per route run and 10.1 yards per target. He’s not generally mentioned as one of the top wide receivers in the league, but he is and, if he was on teams that passed more, he would be recognized as such. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

In four seasons in the league, Smith has averaged 1.90 yards per route run and 9.10 yards per target, with a 83/1082/7 slash line per 17 games and is still only going into his age 27 season. If Smith played on a tram that passed more and was the #1 option, he would be even more productive and, on the Eagles, he is an overqualified #2 option on a run heavy team. Goedert, meanwhile, has averaged 1.76 yards per route run and 8.58 yards per target, with a 64/747/4 slash line per 17 games in seven seasons in the league. He’s the most injury prone of the three, missing 23 games in seven seasons in the league and missing time in every season aside from his rookie year, and he’s the oldest of the bunch, going into his age 30 season, but he is still an overqualified 3rd option on a run heavy team. 

Feature back Saquon Barkley is also involved in the passing game, ranking 4th on the team with 43 targets, though he did just take them for a 33/278/2 slash line and 0.93 yards per route run. Barkley was a productive pass catcher earlier in his career, but he has now finished below one yard per route run in each of the past three seasons and that has a good chance to continue in 2025. With Brown, Smith, and Goedert as a high-level top-3 and Barkley also involved, the Eagles have little need for other options in the passing game and, if Brown, Smith, and Goedert stay healthier, they will have even less need for other passing game options in 2025. After Barkley, #3 wide receiver Jahan Dotson, #2 tight end Grant Calcaterra, #2 running back Kenneth Gainwell, and #4 wide receiver Johnny Wilson were the only other pass catchers to have at least 10 targets last season, with target totals of 33, 30, 22, and 15 respectively.

Aside from Gainwell, the rest of the bunch remain on the roster. Dotson will probably be the #3 receiver again and he is a 2022 1st round pick of the Commanders who is still only going into his age 25 season, but he has averaged just 0.89 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, with just 0.53 yards per route run in 2024, and there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025. Johnny Wilson, meanwhile, is a 2024 6th round pick who will likely remain as the #4 receiver, due to the lack of a better option, even after he averaged just 0.24 yards per route run as a rookie. His primary competition for the role is probably Anais Smith, a 2024 5th round pick who played just 96 snaps as a rookie. With a strong off-season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Smith move as high up as 3rd on the depth chart, but that is far from a guarantee and, even with a strong off-season, he would be an underwhelming #3 wide receiver.

Calcaterra will face competition for the #2 tight end job from free agent additions Harrison Bryant and Kylen Granson. Both are experienced backup tight ends, playing 435 snaps per season and 390 snaps per season respectively in five seasons in the league and four seasons in the league respectively. Granson has averaged 1.12 yards per route run in his career, as opposed to 1.00 yards per route run for Bryant, but Bryant is the better blocker of the two, which is probably what the Eagles care more about out of a #2 tight end. Calcaterra, meanwhile, is also a capable blocker, who has averaged 1.01 yards per route run, while playing 370 snaps per season in three seasons in the league and he could easily end up keeping his job. This is a highly talented, albeit highly top-heavy receiving corps.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Feature back Saquon Barkley had a huge statistical season in 2024, becoming the 9th player in NFL history to rush for 2,000+ yards, doing so with 2,005 rushing yards on 345 carries (5.81 YPC), while also rushing for 13 touchdowns. Barkley is obviously a great player, but he wasn’t quite as good as his numbers suggested last season, as he benefited heavily from the talent around him, averaging just 3.17 yards per carry after contact and breaking tackles at a 18.0% rate, which gave him an elusive rating of just 63.7, good for just 22nd running backs and only slightly above his career average of a 51.4 elusive rating.

Barkley will still have a ton of talent around him in 2025, so he has a good chance to continue being heavily productive, but the odds are against him being even close to as productive as he was last season. In NFL history, 32 other running backs have rushed for at least 1,700 yards in a season. Of those 32 running backs, 29 finished with fewer rushing yards the following season and, on average, running backs who rush for 1,700 yards in a season see their rushing total decline by 35.49% and their yards per carry decline by 14.17%. Barkley is still on the short list of running backs who could lead the league in rushing next season, but odds are against him being as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, even with there still being a high level of talent around him.

As I mentioned, #2 running back Kenneth Gainwell is no longer with the team. To replace him, the Eagles signed AJ Dillon, who has only averaged 4.07 YPC on 597 carries in four seasons in the league and who missed all of last season with injury, but he’s been a useful short-yardage back when healthy, as the 6-0 247 pounder has a career 55.6% carry success rate. He also has a decent 1.09 yards per route run average in his career, but the Eagles may prefer 2024 4th round pick Will Shipley as their passing down back. He averaged 1.46 yards per route run as a rookie and, while that came on just 24 routes, he also caught 69 passes in his final two collegiate seasons. Shipley will likely spell Barkley on some passing downs, while Dillon spells him on some early downs and short yardage plays, but Barkley figures to still get the lion’s share of the running back work. Even if he doesn’t have quite as good of a year as he did a year ago, he is still one of the best running backs in the league.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The one starter on offense the Eagles lost this off-season is right guard Mekhi Becton, who had a 75.3 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. He will either be replaced by Tyler Steen or Matt Pryor, both of whom figure to be a downgrade. Steen was drafted in the 3rd round in 2023 with the intention of him being a starter someday, but he hasn’t shown much through two seasons in the league, with a 53.2 PFF grade across 71 snaps as a rookie and a 40.6 PFF grade across 315 snaps last season. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee and he will need to take a big step forward to even be a capable starter.

Pryor, meanwhile, is coming off of a season in which he had a 69.9 PFF grade in 15 starts, but he’s a one-year wonder, as he only made 24 starts in his first six seasons in the league prior to last season and now he is going into his age 31 season. It seems unlikely he will repeat the best season of his career again in 2025, especially given his age, but he might be a better option than Steen because he is at least proven as a starter in the NFL. Whoever wins the starting job figures to be a significant downgrade from Becton.

The rest of this offensive line remains the same, which is a good thing because the Eagles ranked 6th in both pass block grade and run block grade on PFF last season. The Eagles did allow 45 sacks, 12th most in the NFL, despite ranking just dead last in pass attempts, giving them the 2nd worst sack rate in the league, but that was primarily because Jalen Hurts led the league in time in the pocket, as he moves around and tries to make plays downfield, which has its upsides, but also its downsides. That figures to continue into 2025, but it’s not a fault of the offensive line.

Left tackle Jordan Mailata was the best of the bunch, finishing as PFF’s #1 ranked offensive tackle with a 95.8 PFF grade. He might not quite repeat his career best year again in 2025, but last year’s dominant campaign didn’t come out of nowhere, as he received PFF grades of 87.4, 76.5, and 84.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, and he’s still in his prime, only going into his age 28 season. Additionally, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season, the Eagles should still benefit from him likely playing more games this season, after missing five games due to injury last season.

Right tackle Lane Johnson is also coming off of a strong season, receiving a 85.4 PFF grade in 15 starts, his 12th season over 70 on PFF in as many seasons in the league and his 8th season over 80, but he’s now heading into his age 35 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, but that doesn’t mean he won’t decline in 2025, perhaps significantly, which would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line as a whole. 

At left guard and center, Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens return as starters. Both are recent second round picks, Dickerson being selected in 2021 and Jurgens in 2022. Dickerson has improved in every season in the league, going from a 67.2 PFF grade as a rookie to a 67.3 PFF grade in his second season to a 70.0 PFF grade in his third season to a 79.2 PFF grade last season, while making 62 starts over that 4-year stretch, and he is still only in his age 27 season, so he should remain an above average starter. He can also move inside to center if needed in a pinch. 

Jurgens, meanwhile, was the Eagles’ worst starting offensive lineman by default last season, but still had a 67.1 PFF grade in 16 starts in his first season at center, after posting a 63.0 PFF grade in 11 starts at guard in 2023 and barely playing (35 snaps) as a rookie in 2022. Still only in his age 26 season, he could have further untapped potential, but that’s not a guarantee. Like Dickerson, he is a versatile player who can play both center and guard if needed.

For depth, the Eagles will have the loser of the Matt Pryor/Tyler Steen battle at right guard, as well as free agent addition Kendall Lamm, trade acquisition Kenyon Green, and a trio of rookies, 5th round pick Drew Kendall, 6th round pick Cameron Williams, and another 6th round pick Myles Hinton. Lamm has made 44 starts in 10 seasons in the league, including 34 in the past seven seasons, a stretch in which he has finished above 60 on PFF six times, including a 72.7 PFF grade in seven starts last season. He’s now going into his age 33 season and could struggle if forced into an extended starting role by injury, but, as far as swing tackle options go, he’s a pretty good one.

Green, meanwhile, is a bust of a 2022 1st round pick, receiving a 37.7 PFF grade in 14 starts as a rookie and a 38.6 PFF grade in nine starts last season, with a season missed due to injury in between. Only in his age 24 season, it’s possible he still has some untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to even be an adequate starter and is best as a reserve. The rookies, meanwhile, are unlikely to be able to contribute in a significant way in year one, but won’t need to do so, on an overall deep and talented offensive line.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

While the Eagles had minimal losses on offense this off-season, they did have some significant losses on defense. Of the 11 players who played at least 500 snaps for them on defense last season, four of them are no longer on the team while a fifth is recovering from a devastating injury that could cost him most or all of the 2025 season, among other more minor losses. The Eagles did add some replacements, but, overall, the players they lost are significantly better than the players they added. 

On top of that, the Eagles are likely to have more injuries on defense than they had a year ago, when they had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any defense. The Eagles are starting from a high base point on this side of the ball, leading the league in both yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed, so they have a good chance to still play at an above average level, but they should be noticeably worse.

Arguably the most impactful loss on defense for the Eagles this off-season is edge defender Josh Sweat, who led Eagles edge defenders in snaps played with 622 and led the entire Eagles defense in sacks with 8. In addition to those sacks, he also added 9 hits and a 13.2% pressure rate, while also playing at an above average level against the run, leading to him receiving an overall grade of 75.7 from PFF. Additionally, the Eagles traded Bryce Huff, who had a 68.4 PFF grade across 285 snaps last season, and lost Brandon Graham to retirement, after he had a 78.6 PFF grade across 311 snaps last season.

Only two Eagles edge defenders who played a snap last season return to the team in 2025, Nolan Smith and Jalyx Hunt, who both figure to see expanded roles from the 546 snaps and 240 snaps respectively that they played last season. Both are talented players who have the upside to do well in expanded roles, but both are also unproven young players. Smith, a 2023 1st round pick, struggled with a 50.5 PFF grade across 187 snaps as a rookie, before taking a big step forward in his second season in the league, with a 76.1 PFF grade, playing well as a run defender and adding 6.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Hunt, meanwhile, was a 3rd round rookie last season and had a 64.3 PFF grade. Both could take a step forward in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

The biggest outside addition the Eagles made at the edge defender position is first round pick Jihaad Campbell, but he is a hybrid off ball linebacker/edge defender who is also very raw, so he might not see a big snap count on the edge right away. Additionally, the Eagles added veterans Josh Uche and Azeez Ojulari, but both are underwhelming options. Uche, a 2020 2nd round pick, has finished above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all five seasons in the league, while totaling 20.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate in 64 career games, but he has been limited to just 21.4 snaps per game with a max of 373 snaps played in a season. That’s largely due to his poor run defense, but it’s also due to him missing 20 games in five seasons in the league. He could be a useful situational pass rusher, but probably won’t play a significant snap count and could miss more time with injury.

Ojulari is also a former 2nd round pick, selected by the Giants in 2021, and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, but he hasn’t shown much in four seasons in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of the four seasons, with his career best 62.4 PFF grade coming on just 230 snaps in 2022. Additionally, he’s been limited to just 348 snaps per season over the past three seasons, while missing 22 total games over that stretch. He could still have untapped upside, but it’s far from a guarantee he will ever develop into even a solid rotational player. This edge defender group has some upside, but overall looks significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Eagles also lost interior defender Milton Williams, who received a 70.1 PFF grade across 500 snaps last season, struggling against the run, but excelling as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 7 hits, a 13.2% pressure rate, and a 90.4 PFF pass rush grade, which was 2nd best among eligible interior defenders. To replace him, the Eagles will likely give more playing time to Jordan Davis (387 snaps) and Moro Ojomo (388 snaps) and they used a 4th round pick on Ty Robinson to give themselves additional depth.

Davis is a 2022 1st round pick and has been impressive on an expanded snap count in the past, with a 70.5 PFF grade across 519 snaps in 2023, before taking a back seat to Milton Williams in 2024, when Davis also fell to a 65.9 PFF grade. Davis also had a 71.4 PFF grade across 225 snaps as a rookie, so he has shown plenty of potential, but the Eagles have thus far been hesitant to give the big 6-6 336 pounder too much playing time. 

Only in his age 25 season, perhaps this is the season Davis finally puts it all together, but that’s not a guarantee. Ojomo, meanwhile, is a 2023 7th round pick who flashed potential with a 68.0 PFF grade in a limited role last season, in the first significant action of his career, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, not recording a sack, but finishing with 5 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate in a limited role. He could continue playing at a similar level in an expanded role in 2025, though that’s also not a guarantee.

Jalen Carter remains as the top interior defender and the 2023 9th overall pick has developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league, with a 89.0 PFF grade across 562 snaps as a rookie and a 74.1 PFF grade across 830 snaps last season. He’s a capable run defender, but primarily excels as a pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 32 career games. Still only going into his age 24 season, Carter may just be scratching the surface on his potential and looks likely to be a high level interior defender for years to come. Overall, this position group has a lot of upside, but outside of Jalen Carter, the rest of this group has significant downside as well.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

One player the Eagles prioritized keeping this off-season is linebacker Zach Baun, who they gave a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal to keep him off the open market, making him the 4th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Baun finished last season as PFF’s 1st ranked linebacker with a 90.1 PFF grade across 938 snaps, but he is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2020 3rd round pick played a total of 664 snaps in his first four seasons in the league in New Orleans, while never finishing with a PFF grade better than 71.1, including two seasons below 60. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio clearly knows how to get the most out of Baun, but it still seems unlikely that Baun will be as good two years in a row, even if he has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down player.

Nakobe Dean played well as the other starting linebacker, with a 75.3 PFF grade across 857 snaps, but a torn patellar tendon suffered in the playoffs has his entire 2025 season in jeopardy, given the timing of the injury and that is arguably the most serious knee injury a player can sustain. Oren Burks, who played well in his absence, wasn’t retained this off-season, leaving the starting job until Dean returns either to the rookie Jihaad Campbell or 2024 5th round pick Jeremiah Trotter, who flashed a ton of potential as a rookie with a 85.1 PFF grade across 104 snaps, but who is still a projection to a much larger role. With Baun likely to regress at least somewhat and Dean coming off of a major injury with no timetable to return, this linebacking corps looks likely to be significantly worse in 2025 than 2024.

Grade: A-

Secondary

In addition to Vic Fangio being hired as defensive coordinator, the other big reason why the Eagles’ defense was significantly better in 2024 than 2023 was the addition of a pair of talented cornerbacks in the first two rounds of the draft. First round pick Quinyon Mitchell played well on the outside with a 72.0 PFF grade across 954 snaps, while second round pick Cooper DeJean excelled as primarily a slot cornerback, with a 82.7 PFF grade across 626 snaps. Both should continue playing at a high level in 2025, but the Eagles did lose their other starting outside cornerback Darius Slay (698 snaps), as well as top reserves Isaiah Rodgers (329 snaps) and Avonte Maddox (345 snaps). Maddox struggled with a 56.3 PFF grade and won’t really be missed, but Slay and Rodgers had PFF grades of 67.6 and 76.0 respectively and will be missed.

To replace them, the Eagles signed veteran Adoree Jackson in free agency. Jackson has had an up and down and injury plagued career. The 2017 1st round pick received PFF grades of 75.4 and 73.0 in his first two seasons in the league, while not missing a game, and he went on to finish above 70 on PFF in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2017-2022, but from 2019-2022 he missed 29 games in four seasons and those injuries seemed to catch up with him in 2023, when he missed another three games and dropped off significantly when on the field, finishing with a 49.4 PFF grade. 

His poor 2023 season led to Jackson being a reserve with the Giants to start the 2024 season, but he did work his way back into the starting lineup down the stretch and, overall, he had a bounce back year with a 69.0 PFF grade, albeit across just 426 snaps, with another three games missed due to injury. Now going into his age 30 season, Jackson’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he is likely to miss more time with injury again in 2025, but his poor 2023 season now looks like a fluke and he could remain at least a capable starter when healthy in 2025, even if not at his best.

Jackson could face competition for his starting job from 2023 4th round pick Kelee Ringo, who flashed potential with a 65.8 PFF grade across 113 snaps last season, after also having a 64.5 PFF grade across 198 snaps as a rookie, but most likely Ringo will remain a reserve and, if he has to make significant starts due to injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he could struggle, despite the potential he has displayed, as he is a projection to a larger role.

The Eagles could give Cooper DeJean an expanded role, playing him outside more, rather than keeping him as a pure slot specialist, but he probably wouldn’t be nearly as good outside as he is on the slot and the Eagles might need him to play safety in base packages more than they need him to play outside cornerback. Safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, who had a 75.1 PFF grade across 90.7 snaps last season, wasn’t retained this off-season. 

To replace him, the Eagles used a second round pick on Andrew Mukuba, who will compete with 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown, who has flashed potential in two seasons in the league, but only across 414 total snaps. It’s likely neither will be as good as Gardner-Johnson was and it may be for the best for DeJean to play safety in base packages and then move to the slot in sub packages, when either Brown or Mukuba would come in to play safety. DeJean would be a projection to his new role as a hybrid safety/slot cornerback, but he still has a huge upside and having him on the field every down could easily benefit this defense.

Reed Blankenship remains as the other starting safety. He went undrafted in 2022, but has turned into an above average starting safety, flashing potential with a 75.2 PFF grade as a rookie and continuing that into a starting role over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 73.4 and 74.4 respectively. Still only in his age 26 season, he should remain an above average safety in 2025. Like the rest of this defense, the Eagles’ secondary is unlikely to be as good in 2025 as they were in 2024, due to off-season losses, but this still looks like an above average group.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Jake Elliott struggled mightily in 2024 and was the Eagles’ achilles heel, costing the Eagles 8.20 points compared to an average kicker last season, the 5th most points below average in the NFL, but that kind of came out of nowhere, as Elliott had previously accounted for 19.64 points above average in his previous three seasons. Still only going into his age 30 season, it seems unlikely that Elliott’s down year in 2024 is a sign of a permanent decline and he could easily bounce back in 2025. The Eagles clearly believe in him still, not adding any competition for him this off-season. 

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Eagles are not as talented as they were a year ago due to off-season losses, particularly on defense, but they are starting from the base point of being the best team in the league last season, so they should remain a high level team and compete to make it back to the Super Bowl out of the NFC. At the very least, they still look like the best team in their division, though they do have a much tougher schedule than the Commanders.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC East

Green Bay Packers 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Packers

Quarterback

The Packers closed the book on the Aaron Rodgers era after the 2022 season, trading him to the Jets after 15 seasons as the Packers’ starter, which included a Super Bowl victory and 4 MVP seasons. In his place, the Packers turned to Jordan Love, a 2020 1st round pick who spent the first three seasons of his career developing behind Rodgers, but who had only thrown 83 career regular season pass attempts, with mixed results. Love’s tenure as the Packers’ starter got off to an underwhelming start, as he went 3-6 in his first nine starts, while completing 58.7% of his passes for an average of 6.70 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. However, Love then caught fire down the stretch, completing 70.3% of his passes for an average of 7.71 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 1 interception in his final eight starts, while going 6-2 and leading the Packers to a surprise post-season appearance.

Going into 2024, expectations for Love were high, but he suffered an injury at the end of week 1, missed two games, and didn’t seem to be 100% for several weeks. Through his first seven starts of the season, Love completed just 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.58 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while leading the Packers to a 4-3 record. However, he seemed to shake off his injury after that and completed 65.4% of his passes for an average of 8.48 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 1 interception in his final eight starts, leading the Packers to a 5-3 record and taking them back to the post-season for the second time in two seasons as a starter.

Now going into his third season as a starter, Love is still only going into his age 27 season and has a massive upside if he can put it together for a full season. One thing Love did in his first season as a starter that he didn’t do in his second was continue his strong second half into the post-season, as Love completed 67.3% of his passes for an average of 8.47 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in two post-season starts in 2023, leading the Packers to an upset of the #2 seed Cowboys and then keeping it close with the #1 seed 49ers, but in 2024 he only completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in a first round playoff loss. However, Love was facing the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles and their league best defense in his one playoff game in 2024, so he deserves somewhat of a pass for that.

Even with Love missing time and struggling for a few weeks upon his return last season, the Packers still finished last season ranked 3rd in yards per play differential and 8th in first down rate differential and they largely return the same team as last season, losing just 3 of the 22 players who were in their top-11 in terms of snaps played on offense and defense last season, none of which were key players who played at a high level. Love is still pretty unproven, but if he can stay healthy and put it together for a full season, the Packers have the upside to be among the best teams in the league.

In Love’s absence last season, the Packers got decent play from Malik Willis, who completed 74.1% of his passes for an average of 10.2 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions across 54 pass attempts, while rushing for 6.90 YPC and 1 touchdown on 20 carries. Prior to last season when he was with the Titans, Willis had completed 53.0% of his passes for an average of 5.30 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions across 66 pass attempts, while rushing for 4.50 YPC and 1 touchdown on 32 carries, but Willis was a third round pick in 2022 by Tennessee, so it isn’t a surprise that he developed into a solid backup and he could easily remain one in 2025 and beyond. Overall, this is an enviable quarterback room.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The one offensive starter the Packers didn’t bring back this off-season is center Josh Myers, but he finished with a 55.7 PFF grade in 16 starts last season, so his departure could be addition by subtraction. To replace him, the Packers are moving guard Elgton Jenkins inside to center, where he has some experience (6 career starts). Replacing Jenkins at guard will be free agent addition Aaron Banks, who joins from the 49ers on a 4-year, 77 million dollar deal.

That contract looks like an overpay, but it shouldn’t be hard for Banks to be an upgrade on Myers. Banks was a 2nd round pick by the 49ers in 2021, but he was mostly a replacement level starter, making 43 starts over the past three seasons, but finishing with PFF grades of just 62.7, 54.9, and 65.4. Already going into his age 28 season, Banks likely is what he is at this stage of his career and will be likely provide the Packers with decent, albeit expensive play at left guard.

Jenkins, meanwhile, has been a solid starter through his career, finishing above 65 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including two seasons above 70. Most importantly, considering he is changing positions this off-season, Jenkins has played similarly throughout his career regardless of where he’s played, whether it’s his most regular position of left guard, or center, or even left tackle (8 career starts), or right tackle (5 career starts). The one concern is he is now heading into his age 30 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet (66.1 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2024) and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he remains a solid starter for at least another season.

The Packers’ best starter for the past two seasons has been right tackle Zach Tom, who was only a 4th round pick in 2022, but who has improved his play drastically in all three seasons in the league, with a 68.3 PFF grade across 5 starts as a rookie, a 77.8 PFF grade across 17 starts in his second season in the league, and a 87.5 PFF grade across 17 starts last season. Tom might not be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in 2024, but, only going into his age 26 season, he looks likely to play at a high level at right tackle for years to come.

Meanwhile, the other two offensive line spots might be up for grabs. The Packers used a first round pick in 2024 on Jordan Morgan, but injuries and ineffective play limited him to 186 snaps as a rookie, all of which came at guard. Morgan was a tackle in college, but it seems the Packers prefer him at guard, even using another high draft pick on a young tackle in this year’s draft, taking Anthony Belton in the second round. At guard, Morgan will compete with incumbent right guard Sean Rhyan for a starting role. 

Morgan probably has a higher upside, but Rhyan had a decent 62.0 PFF grade in 17 starts at right guard last season, in the first extended starting experience of the 2022 3rd round pick’s career and he could easily hold off Morgan for the starting job for another season. Belton, meanwhile, is likely to be the swing tackle, but could theoretically push left tackle Rasheed Walker at some point. Walker, a 2022 7th round pick, has been decent, but unspectacular since taking over the starting left tackle job in 2023, posting PFF grades of 66.4 and 68.4 across 15 starts and 17 starts respectively over the past two seasons. He should keep the job for another year, keeping Belton and either Morgan or Rhyan as above average reserve options. This is an above average offensive line overall, after replacing their one weak spot from 2024, former starting center Josh Myers.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In the receiving corps, the Packers didn’t lose any of their key players from a year ago, but Christian Watson is likely to miss at least a significant portion of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL he suffered in week 18 last season. An excellent deep threat, Watson finished last season with a 29/620/2 slash line on 53 targets with an average of 2.26 yards per route run, good for 14th among eligible wide receivers. In three seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2022, Watson has averaged 16.86 yards per catch, 9.61 yards per target, and 2.03 yards per route run. Watson was only a part-time player (554 snaps) in a deep overall receiving corps though and the Packers used their first round pick on one of the fastest wide receivers in the draft, Matthew Golden, who will fill in for him early in the season and then will give them even more depth at wide receiver after Watson returns, so Watson won’t be missed too much.

With four wide receivers rotating, it didn’t give any of them the opportunity to put up big numbers, but Jayden Reed was their nominal #1 receiver, leading the team with a 55/857/6 slash line on just 75 targets and averaging 2.20 yards per route run. A 2nd round pick in 2023, Reed also had an impressive rookie season, with a 64/793/8 slash line on 94 targets and 2.05 yards per route run. Additionally, he provides some value on the ground, taking 31 carries for 282 yards (9.10 YPC) in two seasons in the league. He should remain efficient again in 2025, still only in his age 25 season, but his overall production will probably remain limited by a limited snap count and target share.

Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks were not as efficient as Reed and Watson, as Doubs turned 72 targets into a 46/601/4 slash line and 1.67 yards per route run and Wicks turned 76 targets into a 39/415/5 slash line and 1.42 yards per route run. Last season was actually a career best for Doubs, as the 2022 4th round pick had slash lines of 42/425/3 and 59/674/8 on target totals of 67 and 96 in his first two seasons in the league, while averaging 1.36 yards per route run and 1.32 yards per route run. Wicks, on the other hand, showed a lot more potential as a rookie in 2023, with a 39/581/4 slash line on 58 targets and 2.04 yards per route run, but he was only a 5th round pick in 2023, so it’s not a surprise he couldn’t translate that into a larger role. Both are likely to remain decent, but unspectacular receiving options in 2025.

Tight end Tucker Kraft also had a solid receiving season in 2024, with a 50/707/7 slash line on 70 targets with 1.61 yards per route run. Also a young recent draft pick, the 2023 3rd round pick was not as good as a rookie, with a 31/355/2 slash line on 40 targets and 1.20 yards per route run, but he probably has permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starting tight end going forward. The Packers also used a 2nd round pick in 2023 on a tight end, Luke Mugsrave, and, after their rookie seasons, it looked like Musgrave would be the better player long-term, as he finished his rookie season with a 34/351/1 slash line on 46 targets and 1.28 yards per route run in 11 games.

However, Musgrave took a big step back in year two, finishing with a 7/45/0 slash line on 10 targets and 0.66 yards per route run in 7 games. He has the talent to bounce back in 2025, but he is probably locked in as a backup long-term, given how Kraft played ahead of him last season. Durability has also been an issue for Musgrave thus far in his career, as he’s missed 16 games over the past two seasons. This is a talented young receiving corps, even if they lack a clear #1 option.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Packers’ passing offense was very effective last season, but they actually had more rush attempts (526) than pass attempts (479) on the season and their running game was very effective too, ranking 5th in the NFL in rushing yards (2,496), 5th in rushing touchdowns (23), and 6th in yards per carry (4.75). Josh Jacobs, who they signed to a 4-year, 48 million dollar deal last off-season, led the way, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 301 carries (4.42 YPC), with a 52.2% carry success rate, 13th in the NFL among running backs.

That shouldn’t have come as a surprise, as Jacobs averaged 4.25 YPC on 1,305 carries with a 51.6% carry success rate in his first five seasons in the league with the Raiders before signing with the Packers, doing so despite playing on a much worse offense with the Raiders than the one he gets to play on with the Packers. Jacobs also had a 36/342/1 slash line on 43 targets with 1.36 yards per route run last season, slightly up from the 39/290/0 slash line on 51 targets with 1.15 yards per route run that Jacobs averaged with the Raiders. His one Achilles heel is durability, as he has missed time in four of six seasons in the league, but as long as he stays healthy, Jacobs is likely to remain a high level feature back in 2025, still only in his age 27 season.

Backup Emanuel Wilson also had a great season in a limited role, averaging 4.87 YPC on 103 carries with a 59.2% carry success rate. Wilson went undrafted in 2023, had just 14 carries as a rookie, and kind of came out of nowhere to have that kind of season in 2024, as he was expected to be no higher than the 4th running back and only got an opportunity because of injuries to long-time backup AJ Dillon and 3rd round rookie MarShawn Lloyd. Dillon is no longer with the team and, while Lloyd is expected to be healthier in 2025, after playing in just one game as a rookie, it will be hard for Lloyd to beat out Wilson to be the primary backup, given the season Wilson just had. This is a deep and talented backfield overall.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

While the Packers’ offense played at a high level last season, ranking 5th in yards per play and 10th in first down rate allowed, their defense was also a solid unit, ranking 5th in yards per play allowed and 14th in first down rate allowed. This season, there is actually reason to believe they will be even better. For one, their top edge defender Rashan Gary actually had a down year last season. He still had a 73.8 PFF grade across 638 snaps, but he had PFF grades of 89.3, 82.9, and 80.0 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 and, still only in his age 28 season, he has a great chance to bounce back and be better in 2025. Also a solid run defender, Gary has totaled 32 sacks, 43 hits, and a 15.4% pressure rate in 59 games over the past four seasons.

The Packers need Gary to bounce back because the rest of this edge defender group is underwhelming. Kingsley Enagbare (509 snaps) and Lukas Van Ness (427 snaps) ranked second and third among Packers edge defenders in snaps played last season and both struggled, with PFF grades of 56.0 and 53.8 respectively. Enagbare, a 2022 5th round pick, had better seasons in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.5 across snap counts of 465 and 453 and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, but, even if he does bounce back in 2025, he doesn’t have a high upside.

Van Ness, on the other hand, should have a high upside, but the 2023 1st round pick hasn’t come close to living up to his draft slotin two seasons in the league. He was slightly better in a limited role as a rookie, with a 64.0 PFF grade across 366 snaps, but overall he has been underwhelming through two seasons in the league, particularly as a pass rusher, with a career 8.9% pressure rate. Still only in his age 24 season, it’s possible he takes a step forward in 2025 and has his best season yet in his third season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee.

The Packers added some long-term insurance in the draft by using a 4th round pick on Barryn Sorrell, but he is no guarantee to contribute in a positive way as a rookie. The Packers do have Brenton Cox, a 2023 undrafted free agent who showed some promise in the first significant action of his career last season, with a 72.2 PFF grade, but that came across just 160 snaps and he’s a projection to a larger role who could easily struggle if he sees his snap count increase significantly. Rashan Gary elevates the overall grade of this position group and the rest of the group does have some upside, but they also have significant downside as well.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Things remain largely the same at the interior defender position this season. The one major difference is the loss of TJ Slaton, who played 427 snaps last season. Slaton struggled with a 45.3 PFF grade though, so, even though the Packers didn’t really replace him, his departure could be addition by subtraction. Slaton was their worst interior defender, but the rest of this group is still pretty underwhelming, especially against the run, as none of their interior defenders finished above 60 against the run.

The Packers did at least get good interior pass rush from Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt. A first round pick in 2016, Clark used to be a good run defender as well in his prime, leading to him finishing above 70 on PFF in five straight seasons from 2017-2021, but his overall grades have fallen to 66.4, 68.8, and 59.3 over the past three seasons and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He still had a 7.9% pressure rate last season, but even his pass rush has fallen off in recent years, as that is well below his career pressure rate of 10.2%. At best, he will probably be a mediocre run defender and slightly above average pass rusher in 2025, but he could fall off further.

Wyatt is also a former first round pick, selected in 2022. He has finished above 70 in pass rush grade in all three seasons in the league, while totaling a 12.8% pressure rate, but he has also finished below 60 in run defense in two of his three seasons in the league and, as a result, the Packers have limited his playing time to 24.2 snaps per game and 379 snaps per season. Wyatt is already heading into his age 27 season, so he might just be who he is at this stage of his career, but the Packers might not have a choice but to increase his playing time in 2025, given the state of the rest of the position.

Karl Brooks ranked second at the position behind Clark (685 snaps) with 440 snaps played last season, but he struggled with a 58.8 PFF grade. He had a 66.9 PFF grade across 379 snaps as a rookie in 2023, but he was only a 6th round rookie and, overall, looks like an underwhelming option. The Packers also have Colby Wooden as a deep reserve, but the 2023 4th round pick has received PFF grades of just 58.2 and 47.8 on snap counts of 256 and 234 over the past two seasons respectively and will likely continue struggling in 2025. The Packers also added Warren Brinson in the 6th round of this year’s draft, but it’s unlikely he will make a significant positive contribution in year one. Overall, this looks likely to remain an underwhelming interior defender group.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Packers lost linebacker Eric Wilson this off-season and he was solid with a 65.8 PFF grade across 556 snaps, but his absence will open up an every down role for 2024 2nd round pick Edgerrin Cooper, who flashed a lot of talent as a rookie with a 84.0 PFF grade across 489 snaps, excelling both in coverage and against the run. He might not be quite as good in an expanded role in 2025, but he has a massive upside and could easily be at least an above average every down linebacker. Cooper ascending to an every down role is another reason why this defense could be better in 2025 than 2024.

Cooper will start next to Quay Walker, a 2022 1st round pick who has been an every down linebacker for the Packers since he entered the league, averaging 55.5 snaps per game in 44 career games. He hasn’t lived up to his draft slot though, finishing with PFF grades of 52.0, 60.0, and 57.4 respectively. He still has upside going into his age 25 season, but, even if he has a career best year in 2025, the Packers probably can’t expect more than decent every down play out of him.

Isaiah McDuffie returns as the top reserve and he has finished with PFF grades of just 58.4 and 56.0 on snap counts of 511 and 698 over the past two seasons respectively, in the only two seasons of the 2021 6th round pick’s career in which he’s seen significant action. He’s a decent situational run stopper, but struggles mightily in coverage. The Packers also took a flier on former 8th overall pick Isaiah Simmons, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league and, as a result, has been limited to just 559 snaps as a reserve over the past two seasons. Now going into his age 27 season, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely he will ever be more than a reserve in the NFL. Edgerrin Cooper slightly elevates the overall grade of this position group, but, aside from him, this is an underwhelming group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The position group on this defense that has undergone the most changes this off-season is the cornerback position. Jaire Alexander was released for salary cap reasons and, while he had a 75.2 PFF grade last season, injuries limited him to just 361 snaps in seven games, so he won’t be missed too much. Meanwhile, free agent departure Eric Stokes had a 61.3 PFF grade last season, but that came across just 587 snaps, so he won’t be missed much either. The Packers also mitigated the loss of Alexander and Stokes by signing Nate Hobbs from the Raiders and he should be a solid starter, having finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, though he has missed 16 games with injury over the past three seasons, which is a concern.

Hobbs will probably start next to Keisean Nixon, who led Packers cornerbacks with 1,018 snaps played last season. Nixon had a decent 64.5 PFF grade last season, but it was a career best year for him, as the 6-year veteran played just 563 snaps in his first four seasons in the league from 2019-2022 and then struggled in his first season of significant playing time in 2023, with a 59.0 PFF grade across 808 snaps. He could face competition for the starting job from Carrington Valentine, a 2023 7th round pick who struggled as a rookie with a 57.5 PFF grade across 694 snaps, but took a step forward in year two, with a 70.3 PFF grade across 546 snaps. He has some upside, but is also an underwhelming starting option. Whoever doesn’t start opposite Hobbs between Nixon and Valentine will probably still have a significant role as the #3 cornerback.

The Packers don’t have much depth at cornerback behind their top-3, as none of the other cornerbacks on the roster have ever played a defensive snap and the only two who were drafted were 2024 7th round pick Kalen King and rookie 7th round pick Micah Robinson. Fortunately, the Packers have a lot of depth at safety and could use three safeties together frequently in sub packages to offset their lack of depth at cornerback.

When the Packers use three safeties together, Javon Bullard will man the slot, but he was the worst of the Packers’ safeties last season, with a 52.3 PFF grade across 785 snaps. He was a 2nd round pick in 2024 and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee. Evan Williams, meanwhile, was only a 4th round pick in 2024, but he showed a lot more promise as a rookie, with a 72.4 PFF grade across 473 snaps. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him start at safety over Bullard. He’s a projection to a larger role, but easily could be the better of the two second year safeties. The Packers also have Zayne Anderson, who had a 80.8 PFF grade last season, albeit across just 122 snaps, after the 2021 undrafted free agent played just two snaps across his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still, he’s not bad depth to have.

The Packers best safety is Xavier McKinney, who is one of the best safeties in the league. The 2020 2nd round pick was a bit inconsistent early in his career, but he has received PFF grades of 87.5 and 84.8 over the past two seasons respectively and, overall, has finished above 70 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league. Still only in his age 26 season, he should remain one of the best safeties in the league again in 2025. The Packers have some issues at cornerback, but are much better at safety, which makes up for their issues at cornerback somewhat.

Grade: B+

Kicker

Brandon McManus was the Packers’ kicker last season and had a solid season, accumulating 3.12 points above average. He also has 12.96 total points above average in the past ten seasons, but he did finish below average in both 2022 and 2023 and now he’s going into his age 34 season so, despite a solid year last year, he is on a downward trajectory overall. He could have another solid season in 2025, but also could easily regress. The Packers do have competition for him in Alex Hale, but the 2024 undrafted free agent spent his rookie season on the practice squad and overall doesn’t seem like a legitimate candidate for the starting job.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Packers finished last season 3rd in yards per play differential and 8th in first down rate differential, despite Jordan Love dealing with an injury for the first half of the season. Love has shown the ability to be an elite quarterback when healthy and, even though he’s still pretty unproven, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him put it all together in 2025 and take a talented team to the next level.

Update: The addition of Micah Parsons via trade just adds to the likelihood of this team having a breakout season and joining the short list of Super Bowl contenders.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC North

New Orleans Saints 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Quarterback

When Drew Brees retired at the end of the 2020 season, the Saints were faced with a choice. They had spent aggressively in the final years of Brees’ career in an attempt to win a Super Bowl while they still had a future Hall of Fame quarterback, doing so at the expense of future cap space. With Brees gone, they could have completely torn down the roster and gone through a full rebuild, but instead they opted to continue spending aggressively at the expense of future cap space, in an attempt to stay relevant.

The result was five seasons where the Saints were never terrible, but also never made the post-season, while their roster got increasingly old and increasingly bad. Last season was the worst season, as the Saints fell to 5-12 and were set to have no financial flexibility for the next two off-seasons to improve their roster. A recent stretch of poor drafting didn’t help matters, as the last time the Saints drafted a player who made a Pro Bowl while a member of the Saints was back in 2019.

Going into this off-season, the Saints were again faced with a choice of going through a rebuild or staying the course, in this case choosing between undergoing a likely even longer rebuild than before or staying on an increasingly declining course. The Saints at first seemed content to stay the course, but then a big decision was made for them, when quarterback Derek Carr opted to retire. Originally, the Saints restructured Carr’s contract, freeing up cap space this off-season at the expense of next off-season, but Carr’s injured shoulder worsened and ultimately caused Carr to hang them up ahead of what would have been his age 34 season in 2025.

Carr’s retirement gave them some additional financial flexibility this off-season, but it put them in an even tougher situation as a franchise. They’re still already over next year’s salary cap and they still have the 4th highest average annual age of their roster in 2025, even with Carr retiring, and now they are without a quarterback. Carr wasn’t elite or anything last season, but he played pretty well when healthy, completing 67.7% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 10 starts, one of the Saints’ few bright spots last season, as they went 5-5 when he started and 0-7 when he didn’t.

To replace Carr, the Saints used a second round pick on Tyler Shough and, even though he was the third quarterback selected in a bad quarterback draft, he is expected to start immediately, given the Saints’ lack of alternatives. Spencer Rattler made six of the seven starts in Carr’s absence last season, but the 2024 5th round pick predictably struggled, completing 57.0% of his passes for an average of 5.78 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. 

Jake Haener made the other start but the 2023 4th round pick was even worse, completing 46.2% of his passes for an average of 5.79 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in his first career action. Rattler also has the higher upside of the two options and should at least beat out Haener for the backup job, but it’s unlikely he will beat out Shough for the starting job. If he does, that probably says more negative about Shough than it does positive about Rattler. Overall, this looks like clearly the worst quarterback room in the league, without a single quarterback who has ever won a game in the NFL.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

If there is one reason to be at least somewhat optimistic about this offense it’s the fact that they should be healthier on offense this season, after leading the league in offensive adjusted games lost to injury last season. Their receiving corps was especially hard hit, as their expected two top receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed were limited to 315 snaps in 8 games and 286 snaps in 6 games respectively. Both played at a high level when healthy, averaging 2.42 yards per route run and 2.07 yards per route run respectively and posting slash lines that extrapolate to 85/1082/3 and 57/989/9 respectively over 17 games, if you exclude the two games in which Olave left early due to injury.

Both should be healthier this season and both have a high upside. Olave is the most proven of the two, as the 2022 1st round pick has averaged 2.21 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, while finishing with slash lines of 72/1042/4 and 87/1123/5 in 2022 and 2023, before last season’s injury plagued campaign. The concern is he’s now suffered four documented concussions in his professional career, including two last season, which puts his long-term future into some doubt. He’s still only going into his age 25 season and has a lot of high level football ahead of him if he can stay healthy, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Shaheed, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2022, but showed a ton of promise right away, with a 28/488/2 slash line on 34 targets and 2.60 yards per route run in 12 games as a part-time player as a rookie. He couldn’t keep up that level of efficiency in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023, but he still had a solid 46/719/5 slash line on 75 targets in 15 games with 1.67 yards per route run and he seemed to take a step forward in limited action last season. 

Shaheed is a couple years older than Olave, going into his age 27 season, but he’s still very much in his prime and, even if he can’t keep up last season’s level of play over a full season, he should remain at least an above average wide receiver in 2025. When healthy, he and Olave are one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, though I would expect their overall production and efficiency to be kept down by their quarterback play.

In the absence of Olave and Shaheed, four other Saints wide receivers played between 300 and 400 snaps, but most of them struggled, with the exception being Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was signed mid-season and had a 17/385/4 slash line across 35 targets in 8 games, while averaging 1.70 yards per route run. Valdes-Scantling wasn’t retained this off-season and, instead, it will be free agent acquisition Brandin Cooks as the third receiver behind Olave and Shaheed.

For Cooks, this is a homecoming, as he spent the first three seasons of his career in New Orleans, prior to being traded to the Patriots for a first round pick after the 2016 season. Cooks has had a great career, surpassing 1000 yards receiving six times and averaging 1.71 yards per route run across eleven seasons in the league, but he is now going into his age 32 season and has clearly slowed down in recent years. His last 1000+ yard season was back in 2021 and, in the three seasons since, he has seen his yards per route run average decrease from 1.64 to 1.24 to 0.89, while missing 12 games total across those three seasons. Even as a #3 receiver, he is an underwhelming option.

Cedrick Wilson, Mason Tipton, and Kevin Austin all return as reserves after playing 382 snaps, 357 snaps, and 324 snaps last season and they also have 2024 5th round pick Bub Means, who played 145 snaps as a rookie, but all of them are underwhelming options. Wilson is the most proven and experienced of the bunch, though largely by default. He had a 45/602/6 slash line with 1.74 yards per route run in 2021, but that was his only season above 300 yards receiving in seven seasons in the league, his career yards per route run average is just 1.29, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could decline further in 2025.

Meanwhile, Kevin Austin and Mason Tipton are 2024 undrafted free agents who averaged just 0.79 and 0.42 yards per route run respectively as rookies and, while Bub Means was slightly better with a 1.31 yards per route run average as a rookie, it came in very limited playing time, as he was unable to earn a consistent role even in a thin position group. Wilson will likely be the Saints’ #4 receiver and the first one to take over a significant role in case of an injury ahead of him on the depth chart, but that is largely by default and he figures to struggle if forced into that significant role.

With the issues they had at wide receiver in the absence of Olave and Shaheed last season, the Saints ranked dead last in the NFL with just 46.0% of their targets going to wide receivers, while leading the league with 26.1% of their targets going to running backs and ranking 6th with 27.9% of their targets going to tight ends. Their tight ends weren’t necessarily deserving of all those targets though, as Juwan Johnson turned 66 targets into a 50/548/3 slash line with 1.34 yards per route run, Foster Moreau turned 43 targets into a 32/413/5 slash line with 1.43 yards per route run, and Tayson Hill turned 31 targets into a 23/187/0 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run.

All three remain for 2025, but figure to play significantly smaller roles, with their wide receiver group set to be healthier. Hill was the most efficient of the bunch last season, but it came in the smallest role, he has just a 1.30 yards per route run average in his career, and now he’s going into his age 35 season and coming off of a season-ending torn ACL that he suffered in week 13 of last season, so he could miss the start of the season and could easily struggle upon his return.

Juwan Johnson has been their nominal starter for the past three seasons, but he only had slash lines of 42/508/7 and 37/368/4 on averages of 1.39 yards per route run and 1.19 yards per route run in his first two seasons as a starter and, overall, he is a pretty underwhelming starting option. Moreau, meanwhile, has averaged 1.29 yards per route run in six seasons in the league as a part-time player, while maxing out at 420 receiving yards in a season in 2022. It’s not a bad tight end room and at least the Saints won’t need as high of a target share out of them as they had last season, but it’s not a good tight end room either. The Saints’ receiving corps should be significantly improved by the duo of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed likely being healthier, but the rest of this group is underwhelming at best.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Feature back Alvin Kamara was also a huge part of this passing game last season, leading the team with 89 targets, turning them into a 68/543/2 slash line and averaging 1.75 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL among eligible running backs. That was nothing new for Kamara, who has averaged a 72/595/3 slash line on 91 targets with a 1.93 yards per route run average in eight seasons in the league. Even with a healthier wide receiver group this season, Kamara figures to remain heavily involved in the passing game.

Kamara also averaged 4.17 YPC on 228 carries. That was actually his highest YPC average of the past four seasons, a span in which he has averaged just 3.95 YPC, which is a concern as he goes into his age 30 season in 2025, with 2,116 career touches, a common point for running backs to start slowing down significantly. Kamara also actually missed three games with injury last season, which also isn’t new for him, as he hasn’t made it through a season without missing a game since his rookie season in 2017, but he’s only missed 17 total games in eight seasons, so he’s at least avoided any major injuries.

The Saints used a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Kendre Miller to potentially be Kamara’s long-term replacement, but he has underwhelmed thus far through two seasons in the league, primarily due to injuries, as he has been limited to a 3.80 YPC average on just 80 carries in 14 games. He has at least shown promise as a receiver, averaging 1.49 yards per route run in very limited action. Miller is still only going into his age 23 season, so he could still have a lot of untapped upside if he can stay healthy and he figures to be the clear #2 back in 2025, with Jamaal Williams, who was second on the team with 48 carries last season, no longer on the roster. In a best case scenario, Miller would be an upgrade on Williams (3.42 YPC, 0.74 yards per route run in 2024), capable of spelling Kamara on both running and passing downs without much drop off.

The Saints also used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Devin Neal to give themselves additional depth and he could find himself in a role by season’s end if Miller flops or gets hurt again. Additionally, tight end Taysom Hill also sees action at running back, averaging 5.5 carries per game over the past five seasons, including 4.9 per game in eight games last season, though obviously his age and injury recovery complicate matters for him significantly. This isn’t a bad backfield, but Kamara’s age and usage history, as well as backup Kendre Miller being unproven, are both concerns.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Saints used their first round pick, 9th overall, on Kelvin Banks, who figures to start at tackle for them as a rookie. This is actually the second straight year and their third year out of the past four in which the Saints have used their first round pick on a tackle. Last year’s first round pick, Talise Fuaga, had a decent rookie year with a 65.7 PFF grade in 17 starts and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025. He spent his rookie year at left tackle and could stay there long-term, but it’s also possible the Saints now view Banks as their left tackle and will move Fuaga to the right side to accommodate him.

Meanwhile, Trevor Penning, a first round pick in 2022, will move to left guard from right tackle, with Banks being added. He has been a bust through three seasons in the league, limited to just six nondescript starts in his first two seasons in the league due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness, before making all 17 starts last season but only being a replacement level starter, with a 60.2 PFF grade. He could still have untapped upside, only in his age 26 season, and a move inside to guard could potentially kickstart his career, but that’s far from a guarantee and it’s also possible that having to learn a new position will do more harm than good for him. 

The Saints also used a first round pick in 2020 on an offensive lineman, taking Cesar Ruiz, who has made 75 starts in five seasons in the league, primarily at right guard. Ruiz has largely been a disappointment as well, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, before finishing with a career best 67.6 PFF grade in 2024. Ruiz is still only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain a capable starter going forward, but he could also regress and, even if he doesn’t, he hasn’t shown a high upside.

The Saints’ best offensive lineman is the only one they didn’t use a first round pick on, center Erik McCoy. A 2nd round pick in 2019, McCoy has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including four seasons over 70. He was on his way to a career best year in 2024, with a 94.4 PFF grade, but injuries limited him to 293 snaps and seven starts. He probably won’t be quite that good over a full season in 2025, but he did have a 79.4 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, his best healthy season, and, if he stays healthy this season, another season like that is very obtainable for him, still only in his age 28 season. Durability is a concern though, as he’s missed at least four games in three of the past four seasons, with 19 games missed total over that stretch.

For depth options, the Saints bring back guard Nick Saldiveri and guard/tackle Landon Young, who made 6 starts and 5 starts respectively last season, and they add guard/tackle Dillon Radunz and guard/center Will Clapp in free agency. Saldiveri was a 4th round pick in 2023, but struggled in the first significant action of his career last season, with a 56.0 PFF grade, while Young is a 2021 6th round pick who has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, across 12 total starts.

Radunz is probably their best reserve, as the 2021 2nd round pick had a 67.2 PFF grade in 11 starts in 2023, but he’s also finished below 60 in his other three seasons in the league, including a 57.0 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, which is why he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. Clapp, meanwhile, has made 22 starts in seven seasons in the league, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all seven of those seasons. This offensive line has upside if their recent high draft picks can play at their best and if center Erik McCoy can stay healthy, but they also have downside if that doesn’t happen, especially given that their depth options are underwhelming.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints weren’t quite as bad on defense as they were on offense last season, but they were still below average on this side of the ball, ranking 27th in yards per play allowed and 17th in first down rate allowed, and, unlike on offense, injuries weren’t the problem, as they had the 10th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. The Saints used to have a consistently good defense, but many of their key players have gotten old and declined as a result.

One notable example of that is edge defender Cameron Jordan. Jordan finished above 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, but then he fell to 74.5 and 73.5 in 2022 and 2023 and then he fell further to a 57.4 PFF grade across 565 snaps in 2024, both of which were the lowest of his 14-year career. Now going into his age 36 season, Jordan is highly unlikely to bounce back and could continue declining further. 

Jordan will be a reserve behind starters Carl Granderson and Chase Young. Granderson has become arguably the Saints’ best defensive player as other players have dropped off. Over the past three seasons, he has finished with PFF grades of 80.4, 74.1, and 79.7, first on a snap count of 480 in a part time role in 2022, before seeing that snap count jump significantly to 874 in 2023 and 825 in 2024. He’s a much better run defender than pass rusher, but has also added 19.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 50 games over the past three seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, he should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Chase Young, meanwhile, was the Saints’ best edge rusher, with 5.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate last season and he now has 22 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 60 career games, since being selected 2nd overall by the Commanders in 2020. Young fell below 70 on PFF for the first time in his career last season, but that was because his run defense fell below 60 for the first time in his career. Still only in his age 26 season, he could easily bounce back as a run defender in 2025, while continuing to be an above average pass rusher. Injuries were a big concern for Young earlier in his career, as he played just 12 games between 2021-2022, but that was primarily because of one bad knee injury and he has missed just one game over the past two seasons, so he has seemingly put his injury history behind him. 

The Saints did use multiple high draft picks in recent drafts trying to find a successor for Cameron Jordan, taking Payton Turner in the first round in 2021 and Isaiah Foskey in the second round in 2023, but neither of those panned out. Turner played just 675 snaps in four seasons with the Saints, before signing with the Cowboys this off-season, after a 2024 season in which he played a career high 335 snaps, but finished with just a 54.0 PFF grade. 

Meanwhile, Isaiah Foskey remains on the roster, but has played just 149 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. With Turner gone and Jordan continuing to age, Foskey has the opportunity to play a much bigger snap count in 2025 and he still has theoretical upside, only in his age 25 season, but he could easily struggle in an expanded role. The Saints have a solid starting duo of Carl Granderson and Chase Young, but questionable depth, with Cameron Jordan going into his age 36 season and Isaiah Foskey showing next to nothing through two seasons in the league.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a big position of weakness last season, with the only player who finished above 60 on PFF being a player who played just 21 snaps. Bryan Bresee was a first round pick in 2023 and has proven himself as a solid interior pass rusher, with 12 sacks, 12 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 34 career games, but his terrible run defense has kept him below 60 overall on PFF in both seasons. He’s only going into his age 24 season and has the upside to get better as a run defender and become a solid all-around player, but there is no guarantee that happens in 2025.

The Saints traded for Davon Godchaux to try to help fix the problem at the interior defender position, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons and now is going into his age 31 season, so his best days are likely behind him and it’s unlikely he will be much help. Godchaux has never been a good pass rusher, with a pressure rate of 4.1% in his career and his run defense has also fallen off in recent years. He’s played an average of 666 snaps over the past four seasons respectively and will likely continue playing a relatively high snap count with his new team, but those are unlikely to be good snaps. 

Holdovers Khalen Saunders (460 snaps) and Nathan Shephard (567 snaps) will continue playing a role, albeit likely a smaller role with Godchaux being added. Saunders is relatively young, in his age 29 season, and has some bounce back potential, with PFF grades of 60.2 and 61.6 on snap counts of 421 and 533 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before falling to a 54.7 PFF grade in 2024, but he’s unlikely to be anything more than a marginal rotational player. Shepherd, meanwhile, had some solid years earlier in his career, but he has received PFF grades of 47.5 and 43.4 over the past two seasons and now is heading into his age 32 season, so he will likely continue struggling in a significant way, even in a reduced role in 2025. Overall, this is still a very underwhelming interior defender group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Another aging player on this defense is linebacker Demario Davis, who is heading into his age 36 season. Davis still had a 73.2 PFF grade in an every down role (1,090 snaps) last season, but that was actually his worst single season grade since 2016 and he could decline further in 2025, perhaps significantly further, given his age. He will continue starting next to 2021 2nd round pick Pete Werner, who has been a solid, but unspectacular player through four seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 79.9, 64.7, 57.5, and 69.0 on snap counts of 394, 596, 919, and 731 respectively. He’s never made it through a season without getting hurt, missing 12 games in total in four seasons in the league, so he will likely miss more time this season, but, when on the field, I would expect him to continue being a solid, but unspectacular every down player.

Depth was an issue at linebacker for the Saints in 2024, as their top-2 reserves Willie Gay (277 snaps) and Anfernee Orji (147 snaps) received PFF grades of 44.1 and 55.2 respectively. Neither were retained for 2025, but the alternatives are not better, as the Saints’ best reserve options are 2022 5th round pick D’Marco Jackson, who has played just 76 snaps in three seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie Danny Stutsman. Davis and Werner could be an above average every down linebacker duo, but their depth is a concern, given Davis’ age and Werner’s injury history.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Saints made a big move towards rebuilding midway through the 2024 season when they traded long-time top cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders for a package centered around a 3rd round pick. It’s a trade that makes sense in the long-term, but Lattimore led all Saints cornerbacks with a 71.3 PFF grade through seven seasons in the league and they don’t have a clear #1 cornerback to replace him on the roster.

Kool-Aid McKinstry probably has the highest upside of the group, as the 2024 2nd round pick had a 66.1 PFF grade across 680 snaps in 14 games as a rookie and could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025. Paulson Adebo also had a decent season in 2024 with a 63.3 PFF grade, but he was limited to 436 snaps in 7 games by injury and was not retained this off-season, being replaced by free agent addition Isaac Yiadom. Yiadom had a 81.1 PFF grade in 2023, but it came across just 517 snaps in 17 games and that looks like a complete fluke, as he’s never finished above 60 on PFF in any of his other six seasons in the league, including a 59.5 PFF grade in across 488 snaps in 2024. He’ll probably start for the Saints in 2025, but primarily due to the lack of a better option and he will likely struggle.

Alontae Taylor led the position group with 1,075 snaps, but he struggled mightily with a 45.0 PFF grade, finishing 124th worst among 128 eligible cornerbacks on PFF and allowing 998 receiving yards, most in the league among cornerbacks by a wide margin, with no one else surpassing 806 receiving yards allowed. Taylor was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but has not lived up to his draft slot, also struggling in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.5 and 45.7 on snap counts of 663 and 950. Taylor is already going into his age 27 season, so he is running out of time to make good on his upside and is likely to continue struggling, perhaps significantly, in 2025.  Like Yiadom, Taylor will probably have to start in 2025, due to the lack of good alternatives. 

The biggest competition the Saints have for Taylor and Yiadom is veteran Ugo Amadi and 4th round rookie Quincy Riley. Amadi has only played more than 500 snaps three times in six seasons in the league and finished below 60 on PFF in two of those three seasons, including a 43.7 PFF grade in 2021, when he played a career high 692 snaps. Riley, meanwhile, is probably too raw to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. Outside of Kool-Aid McKinstry, who is still young and unproven, this is a very underwhelming cornerback group.

Things are better at safety, but the Saints have another aging starter there, with Tyrann Mathieu going into his age 33 season and coming off of a career worst 60.5 PFF grade in 2024. He had a 81.3 PFF grade as recently as 2023, but it seems highly unlikely he will bounce back anywhere near to that level in 2025, given his age, and he could easily decline further. The biggest highlight of this secondary is Justin Reid, who was added as a free agent on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal this off-season, though he’s the highlight largely by default.

Reid had a 76.9 PFF grade last season, though that was a career best year. The 7-year veteran has finished above 70 on PFF in four of those seasons and is still only going into his age 28 season, so he could easily have another above average season in 2025, but he’s also been pretty consistent in his career, receiving PFF grades of 50.9, 60.7, and 57.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, so he could regress. The Saints also have Jordan Howden, a 2023 5th round pick, as the third safety and he’s a great reserve option, having received PFF grades of 67.0 and 67.9 on snap counts of 569 and 550 over the past two seasons respectively. The Saints’ safeties are not bad, but don’t totally make up for the Saints’ issues at cornerback.

Grade: B-

Kickers

A 2023 undrafted free agent, Blake Grupe has been the Saints’ kicker for the past two seasons and has been about a league average kicker, costing the Saints 2.98 points below average as a rookie and accounting for 2.48 points above average in his second season in the league last year. He will probably keep the kicker job for 2025, but the Saints do have some competition for him in Charlie Smyth, a former European soccer player who spent last season on the Saints practice squad. Most likely, Grupe will be the Saints’ kicker again this season and will remain decent, but unspectacular.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Saints are in about as bad of a position as a team can be, as a result of years of borrowing future cap space to remain relevant, coupled with years of underwhelming drafts. The result is that, not only do the Saints have arguably the worst roster in the NFL, but they also have the 4th oldest roster and they don’t have any financial flexibility coming next off-season, already about 15.8 million over the 2026 cap. This looks like it will require a multi-year rebuild at the very least and the Saints haven’t even really started the rebuilding process. The good news is they figure to be in contention for the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which will jump start that rebuild.

Update: It is a bad sign for Tyler Shough’s long-term prospects that he couldn’t beat out Spencer Rattler for the starting job.

Prediction: 1-16, 4th in NFC South

Detroit Lions 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

The Lions finished the 2024 season with a 15-2 record, the best record in the NFC, and ranked 6th and 2nd respectively in yards per play differential and first down rate differential. They lost at home to the Commanders in the divisional round of the playoffs, but that looked like a fluke more than anything, as they won the first down rate battle by 7.95% and the yards per play battle by 1.07, only losing the game because they lost the turnover battle by 5, even though they had a signicantly better turnover margin than Washington in the regular season (+9 vs. +1).

The Lions did all that despite having significant injury issues, particularly on defense. While their offense actually had the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury, their defense had the most, leading to the Lions as a team having the 8th most adjusted games lost in the league. Their defense was not nearly as good as their offense, ranking 28th in yards per play allowed and 26th in first down rate allowed, but that’s in large part due to how much talent they were without for most of the season. 

Going into 2025, the Lions are highly unlikely to have anywhere near the same amount of injuries on defense, but they do have some significant concerns. For one, their offense is also unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago. On top of that, the Lions had a lot of losses this offense, both in terms of coaches and players. Both their offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn got head coaching jobs this off-season, forcing the Lions to promote internally to replace them, doing so from a limited group of assistants after both Johnson and Glenn brought some with them to their new teams. 

In terms of their player losses, their most significant ones came on their offensive line, which is a huge deal because that was the biggest strength of their offense last season. When you combine their offensive line losses, which I will get more into later, and the fact that this offense is unlikely to be as healthy, there is good reason to expect this offense to be significantly worse this season. This offense did rank second in both yards per play and first down rate last season, so they’re starting from a high base point, but if their offense declines significantly it will make it hard for this team to compete at the level they were competing at last season.

Jared Goff remains as their quarterback and is coming off of a career year, setting new career highs in QB rating (111.8), completion percentage (72.4%), yards per attempt (8.59), and passing touchdowns (37), but he has proven throughout his career that his level of play is highly dependent on having a lot of talent around him and on having great coaching supporting him. With the Lions’ offense taking significant hits in both of those areas this off-season, it stands to reason that Goff’s statistical production could decline significantly.

One area that Goff has been consistent in his career is his durability, as he’s only missed time with injury in two of nine seasons in the league. If he does miss time with injury this season, the Lions would likely turn to Hendon Hooker. Hooker has only thrown nine passes in his career, so he’s an unknown commodity, but he was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and could have been a second or even a first round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL late in his final collegiate season, so he has a lot of upside. 

Hooker could face competition for the backup job from free agent addition Kyle Allen, but Hooker is almost definitely considered the heavy favorite for the job, considering Allen has a career 82.3 QB rating in 19 starts in seven seasons in the league. The only way Allen would win the job would be if Hooker completely flopped in training camp. This is a solid quarterback room, but Goff probably won’t be as effective as he was a year ago, given the issues around him he will have that he didn’t have a year ago.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Lions’ offensive line is their position group that had the biggest losses this off-season. Last season, four of the Lions’ five offensive line starters finished with PFF grades above 77, but this off-season they lost two of those four, with right guard Kevin Zeitler (86.5 PFF grade in 16 starts) signing with the Titans and center Frank Ragnow (85.3 PFF grade in 16 starts) opting for an early retirement after years of nagging injuries.

To replace Zeitler at right guard, the Lions will turn to Christian Mahogany, who flashed potential as a rookie with a 81.6 PFF grade, but that came across just 75 snaps and he was only a 6th round pick, so he’s a major projection to a significant role and could easily struggle. Even if he doesn’t struggle, it seems highly unlikely he’ll be anywhere near as good as Zeitler was last season. At center, the Lions will likely turn to second round rookie Tate Rutledge, who also is highly unlikely to be anywhere near as good as Ragnow was last season.

Another option the Lions have if either of their young starters struggle is free agent addition Trystan Colon. Colon, who has experience at both guard and center, has only made 15 starts in five seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2020, but he has shown promise, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, including a 71.0 PFF grade in 386 snaps (seven starts) in 2024. He’s a projection to a larger role, but, at the very least, he’s at least a good reserve option.

If Colon doesn’t beat out Mahogany or Rutledge for a starting role, he could potentially beat out left guard Graham Glasgow, who was the weak point of this offensive line last season. Glasgow has mostly been a solid player throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in six of nine seasons in the league (122 starts), but two of those three seasons below 60 have come in the past three seasons, including a 57.9 PFF grade in 16 starts last season, and he’s now going into his age 33 and could easily continue struggling. He did have a 75.1 PFF grade as recently as 2023, but it seems unlikely he will come close to playing at that level again in 2025, given his age.

Left tackle Taylor Decker is also getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season, which is an even bigger deal because, unlike Glasgow, he is coming off of a strong season, meaning it would be really noticeable if he declined significantly. Decker has finished above 70 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including seven straight and a 77.0 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2024, but his best days could easily be behind him at this point, which is yet another reason to expect this offensive line to be significantly worse than a year ago.

The Lions’ best offensive lineman by far is right tackle Penei Sewell. The 7th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Sewell has received PFF grades of 77.0, 80.6, 90.7, and 87.5 in four seasons in the league and, only in his age 25 season, he might not have even reached his peak yet. He looks likely to be one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come. He and Decker will be backed up by swing tackle Dan Skipper, who has made 11 starts over the past three seasons in that role, but who has mostly struggled with PFF grades of 43.9, 66.9, and 55.4, and who is now going into his age 31 season. Penei Sewell significantly elevates the overall grade of this offensive line by himself, but this group has gone from elite to merely above average this off-season, which is a big deal.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Lions’ receiving corps remains the same in 2025, but it stands to reason that they will be less productive if Jared Goff isn’t as productive as a result of having an inferior offensive line in front of him and inferior coaching supporting him. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the way in catches (115), yards (1,263), touchdowns (12) and targets (141) and averaged 2.29 yards per route run, good for 12th best in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. This is nothing new for St. Brown, who had a 106/1161/6 slash line on 146 targets with 2.40 yards per route run in 2022 and a 119/1515/10 slash line on 164 targets with 2.69 yards per route run in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, St. Brown should remain a highly effective receiver in 2025, even if his production goes down slightly as a result of the offense in general declining.

St. Brown wasn’t the only 1000+ yard wide receiver on this team last season, as Jameson Williams posted a 58/1001/7 slash line on 91 targets in 15 games, while averaging 2.10 yards per route run, giving the Lions the only wide receiver duo in the league who both surpassed 1000 yards receiving. While St. Brown functioned as a reliable possession receiver, Williams was the deep threat, leading the team with 17 catches of 20+ yards. Williams is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at the level he produced last season, but he has always had the talent to do so.

Williams was selected 12th overall by the Lions in 2022, despite tearing his ACL late in his final collegiate season. If not for the injury, he would have been a top-10 or even top-5 pick. His recovery from that injury limited him to just 78 snaps as a rookie and then he was limited to 444 snaps in 12 games in his second season in the league by additional injuries, as well as a suspension, before breaking out in his third season in the league in 2024. Along with being a one-year wonder, Williams could regress alongside the rest of this offense in 2025, especially since Goff is unlikely to have as much time to throw downfield, given the decline of their offensive line, but he’s still only in his age 24 season, so there is a good chance he remains one of the best pure deep threat receivers in the league for years to come.

Williams breakout season in 2024 seemed to come at the expense of tight end Sam LaPorta, who went from 120 targets a second round rookie in 2023 to just 83 targets last season and, as a result, fell from a 86/889/10 slash line and 1.76 yards per route run to a 60/726/7 slash line and 1.61 yards per route run. LaPorta figures to remain third on the team in target share in 2025, but, as far as third options go, he is one of the better ones in the league. He also saw his yards per target increase from 7.41 to 8.75 with his smaller role and, while he could decline statistically along with the rest of this offense, he is also only going into his age 24 season and could offset some of that decline by taking another step forward himself. 

Running backs were also a big part of this passing offense last season, as the Lions ranked 6th with 21.2% of their targets going to running backs. Lead back Jahmyr Gibbs had 63 targets and turned them into a 52/517/4 slash line and 1.67 yards per route run, while backup running back David Montgomery was even more efficient, with a 36/341/0 slash line and 2.24 yards per route run on 38 targets. Among eligible running backs, Montgomery led the league in yards per route run, while Gibbs ranked 5th.

That was not out of character for Gibbs, who was a good receiving back in college and had a 52/316/1 slash line on 71 targets as a rookie in 2023, albeit with just 0.97 yards per route run, but Montgomery had never been a good receiving back until last season, averaging 1.00 yards per route run across his first five seasons in the league prior to 2024. Both should remain a big part of the passing game in 2025, perhaps even more so if Goff is under pressure more often and has to check down more frequently as a result, though they could regress in terms of efficiency along with the rest of this offense, especially Montgomery, who is a one-year wonder in terms of producing at the level he produced at as a receiver last season.

With the Lions’ top-2 wide receivers, their top tight end, and their top-2 running backs all highly involved in the passing game, there isn’t much need for the Lions’ other pass catching options to have a role unless injuries strike. Tim Patrick was the de facto #3 wide receiver last season, but he only had 44 targets in 16 games, taking them for a 33/394/3 slash line and 1.15 yards per route run. Patrick showed some promise earlier in his career, with slash lines of 51/742/6 and 53/734/5 on 1.71 yards per route run and 1.48 yards per route run in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but then he missed all of 2022 and 2023 with two separate leg injuries, before returning in 2024 and not being quite the same. Now going into his age 32 season, he could decline further in 2025, but luckily it’s unlikely the Lions will need him for a big role.

De facto #4 wide receiver Kalif Raymond also played a limited role last season (22 targets) and also is getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season. Raymond averaged 1.68 yards per route run last season and has averaged 1.67 yards per route run in his career, albeit mostly in part-time roles, with a maximum of 71 targets in a season. Raymond’s age is a concern, as is Patrick’s, but neither of them are likely to have to play a significant role and the Lions planned for the future by using a 3rd round pick on Isaac TeSlaa, who will probably begin his rookie year as the 5th receiver, but who could play his way into a situational role by the end of the season.

Behind LaPorta at tight end, Brock Wright remains and will continue being a blocking specialist who rarely is targeted in the passing game, with just 71 targets in four seasons in the league, including 16 last season. Wright has averaged just 0.93 yards per route run in his career and is not a particularly good blocker either, leading to him finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons, but the Lions don’t have a good alternative. He will likely remain below average in 2025, albeit in a small, largely insignificant role. This is a deep and talented receiving corps overall.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Lions running game was also very effective last season, ranking 3rd in the NFL in carries (534), 6th in rushing yards (2,488), 9th in yards per carry (4.66), and 2nd in rushing touchdowns (29), though it stands to reason they could be less effective this season due to the decline of their offensive line. Jahmyr Gibbs led the way with 250 carries, but he and Montgomery were almost identical in carry totals until Montgomery missed the final three games of the season with injury, as Gibbs had 186 through 14 games, while Montgomery had 185. Durability has been a bit of an issue for Montgomery in his career, as he’s missed time in every season except his rookie season in 2019, with 12 games missed in six seasons in the league, while Gibbs has only missed two games in two seasons in the league, but while both backs are healthy, I expect a pretty even split again in 2025.

Gibbs was significantly better than Montgomery in terms of yards per carry last season, at 5.65 vs. 4.19 for Montgomery, but Montgomery actually had the higher carry success rate, ranking 5th in the league among running backs at 55.1%, while Gibbs ranked 9th at 53.6%. A similar thing happened in 2023 when Gibbs averaged 5.19 YPC to Montgomery’s 4.63, but Gibbs had just a 46.7% carry success rate to Montgomery’s 54.8%. The reason for that is that Gibbs is more of a homerun hitter, with 15 carries of 15+ yards as a rookie and 25 carries of 15+ yards last season, while Montgomery is more of a short yardage power back and had just 6 carries of 15+ yards and 5 carries of 15+ yards over the past two seasons respectively. 

Gibbs is younger, only going into his age 23 season, while Montgomery is going into his age 28 season, and Gibbs is more talented, as a 2023 first round pick, so he definitely has a higher upside, but it’s likely we will continue seeing Montgomery have a higher carry success rate, while Gibbs has a significantly higher yards per carry average, though both could see their efficiency drop across the board, given the likely decline on the Lions’ offensive line.

With Gibbs and Montgomery leading the way, the Lions have very little need for any of their other backs. Even with Montgomery missing three games last season, all other Lions running backs combined for just 47 carries last season, as Gibbs just took over as the feature back in Montgomery’s absence, which Montgomery would do if Gibbs missed time. Craig Reynolds averaged 4.48 YPC on 31 carries as the #3 back last season and has averaged 4.33 YPC on 151 carries in six seasons in the league. He could face competition for the #3 role from 2024 4th round pick Sione Vaki, who only had six carries as a rookie, but who probably has a higher upside than Reynolds long-term. This is a very talented backfield, even if they aren’t quite as effective as they were a year ago, due to the offensive line’s decline.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Lions figure to be significantly healthier on defense this season than last season. By far their biggest re-addition is Aidan Hutchinson, who looked on his way to a Defensive Player of the Year award last season before a broken leg ended his season after five games. Prior to getting hurt, Hutchinson had a 94.9 PFF grade and had 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a ridiculous 22.7% pressure rate and, despite only playing five games, he still finished the season 34th among edge defenders in pressures. 

Hutchinson was on his way to the best season of his career last season before he got hurt, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 80.7 and 91.0 on snap counts of 953 and 986 respectively in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, while totaling 21 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 34 games. Hutchinson entered the league with a massive upside as the #2 overall pick and it wasn’t a surprise that Hutchinson was playing at such a dominant level in his third season in the league in 2024. Still only in his age 25 season, Hutchinson could easily continue playing at a Defensive Player of the Year caliber level in 2025, though his recovery from a major injury does complicate his projection a little bit. 

In Hutchinson’s absence last season, the Lions traded for Za’Darius Smith, who wasn’t as good as Hutchinson, but still played well, with a 71.2 PFF grade across 291 snaps in eight games, while totaling 4 sacks, 6 hits, and a 16.6% pressure rate in those games. The Lions released Smith for salary cap purposes this off-season though, meaning the Lions still have a questionable situation at the edge defender position opposite Hutchinson. Aside from Hutchinson and Smith, no Lions edge defender played more than 100 snaps and finished above 60 on PFF last season.

The Lions did bring back Marcus Davenport on a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal and will hope for a healthier year from him after his 2024 season ended after 89 snaps in two games, but injuries have been a huge issue for Davenport throughout his career, so he will almost definitely miss more time, probably a significant amount, again in 2025. In seven seasons in the league, Davenport has missed 47 games and has never played more than 533 snaps or 15 games in a season. The past two seasons have been especially bad for him, as he’s been limited to 207 total snaps in six games. Davenport is only in his age 29 season and at least played well when healthy, with a 12.8% career pressure rate, but it’s very unlikely he’ll make it through the whole season healthy.

With Hutchinson and Davenport getting hurt and Smith not being added until mid-season, the Lions’ leading edge defender in terms of snaps played last season was Josh Paschal, who played 548 snaps. Paschal was a decent run stopper, but only had 2 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate and, overall, finished with just a 54.5 PFF grade. That’s in line with how he’s played in his career, since being selected in the 2nd round in 2022. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and could have some untapped upside, but most likely he will continue playing at the same level. He will start the season as a reserve, but he’ll probably end up having to start multiple games, given Davenport’s injury history, and, even as a reserve, he figures to have a significant role. 

Other reserve options include Al-Quadin Muhammad and Trevor Nowakse, who played 254 snaps and 332 snaps respectively last season. Muhammad was a solid rotational player in his prime, finishing above 60 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2018-2021, on an average of 569 snaps per season, but he fell to a 53.9 PFF grade on 609 snaps in 2022, spent 2023 on a practice squad, and then had a 60.0 PFF grade last season after being signed as an injury replacement mid-season. He’s now going into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Nowaske, meanwhile, is a 2023 undrafted free agent who struggled with a 52.1 PFF grade in the first action of his career last season. Both are underwhelming options, even as reserves. This position group is significantly elevated by the return of Aidan Hutchinson, who should be on the short list for Defensive Player of the Year, but the rest of the group is a concern.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Another key defensive lineman coming off of an injury is interior defender Alim McNeill, who tore his ACL last season, although he tore it in week 15, so there is a good chance he isn’t quite ready for the start of the season. In fact, there is a chance, even if McNeill doesn’t suffer any additional injuries, that he still won’t play as many games in 2025 as he did in 2024, when he played 631 snaps in 14 games before getting hurt. 

McNeill also might not play at quite the same level immediately upon his return as he did before the injury, which is a shame because he had developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league before getting hurt, finishing the 2023 season ranked 6th among interior defenders with a 88.5 PFF grade and finishing the 2024 season ranked 11th with a 79.6 PFF grade. Also a solid run defender, McNeill excelled as a pass rusher over the past two seasons, with 8.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 27 games. McNeill is still only going into his age 25, so if he can return to form after his injury, he still has a very bright future, but there is a good chance he doesn’t give the Lions as much in 2025 as he did in 2024, both in terms of quality and quantity.

DJ Reader (507 snaps) and Levi Onwuzurike (635 snaps) also played significant roles on this defense last season and will continue doing so in 2025. Both had solid seasons with PFF grades of 65.4 and 69.4 respectively. For Onwuzurike, last season was a career best, but it didn’t come out of nowhere. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Onwuzurike’s career got off to a slow start, as he had a 43.2 PFF grade across 396 snaps as a rookie in 2021 and then missed all of 2022 with injury, but he seemed to turn a corner in 2023 with a 68.1 PFF grade, albeit across 132 snaps, before continuing to play at a similar level across a much larger snap count in 2024, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 1.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate. He’s technically a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season over the snap count he had, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continued playing at that level in 2025. 

Reader, meanwhile, had a career worst year in 2024, and previously he had finished above 70 on PFF in six of the previous seven seasons, including a 82.2 PFF grade on 535 snaps as recently as 2023, but he’s now heading into his age 31 season, so he won’t necessarily bounce back in 2025 and could easily continue declining. To try to offset some of his potential decline, the Lions used their first round pick on Tyleik Williams, a similar run defense first interior defender who looks like Reader’s long-term successor. He will have at least somewhat of a role as a rookie, though he will probably see fewer snaps than Reader and Onwuzurike. He adds to a deep position group overall.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Injuries also hit the Lions’ linebacking corps hard. Derrick Barnes and Malcolm Rodriguez had their seasons ended by injury after three games and nine games respectively, while Alex Anzalone missed seven games as well. In their absences, Jack Campbell broke out as an every down player, with a 77.4 PFF grade across 973 snaps. Campbell was a first round pick in 2023, so he’s always had talent, but he struggled with a 57.3 PFF grade across 637 snaps as a rookie. He’s technically a one-year wonder, but could easily keep playing at the same level in 2025, or potentially even better. Even with Barnes, Rodriguez, and Anzalone still on the roster, Campbell should keep his every down job. 

Rodriguez started last season as a reserve, only becoming a starter when others got hurt, and he might not be ready for the start of the season due to injury anyway, leaving Barnes and Anzalone to compete for the other starting job, with the loser of that battle being a situational base package run stopper and the top reserve. Anzalone has been an every down player for the past three seasons, averaging 62.5 snaps per game across 43 games, but he’s only been a decent every down player, with PFF grades of 59.2, 68.1, and 67.8 over those three seasons and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it’s possible Barnes gives the Lions a higher upside going forward. 

Barnes has only played snap counts of 346, 704, and 120 over the past three seasons, but he has PFF grades of 62.3, 62.1, and 71.8 and the 2021 4th round pick is only going into his age 26 season. Anzalone is probably still the favorite to keep an every down role, but that’s not a guarantee. Rodriguez, meanwhile, will be a reserve whenever he is healthy enough to return. Also going into his age 26 season, the 2022 6th round pick has PFF grades of 62.8, 51.7, and 74.4 on snap counts of 611, 120, and 318 in his three seasons in the league. He makes this an already deep linebacking corps even deeper when everyone is healthy.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The safety position was probably the biggest position of strength for the Lions on defense last season, as Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch ranked 1st and 11th among safeties on PFF with grades of 91.0 and 77.6 respectively. For Branch, his strong season was very predictable, as the 2023 2nd round pick also had a 78.1 PFF grade as a rookie. Still only going into his age 24 season, Branch could easily have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2025.

For Joseph, last year’s dominant campaign kind of came out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick received PFF grades of just 64.0 and 57.7 in his first two seasons in the league. It’s very possible that Joseph has permanently turned a corner and will remain a high level safety, still only in his age 25 season, but it’s also very likely that his performance last season will prove to be somewhat of a fluke and that he will be noticeably worse in 2025, even if he remains one of the best safeties in the league.

While Joseph and Branch are arguably the best safety duo in the league, depth behind them is somewhat of a concern if either player misses time with injury. Other than Joseph and Branch, the only other safeties on the roster who were drafted or who have ever played a defensive snap are Morice Norris, a 2024 undrafted free agent who played just one defensive snap as a rookie, and 7th round rookie Dan Jackson, both of whom would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action in 2025.

At cornerback, the Lions didn’t bring back Carlton Davis, who was their best player at the position last season, finishing with a 74.5 PFF grade, but he also missed four games due to injury and the Lions replaced him with a comparable player in DJ Reed, who had a 70.7 PFF grade last season. That was actually Reed’s worst single season grade since his rookie season in 2018, though it wasn’t totally out of character, as his career best PFF grade was 78.6 in 2021. A highly consistent player, Reed should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 to how he’s played for the last six seasons, still only in his age 29 season.

Amik Robertson was their second best cornerback last season, with a 64.5 PFF grade across 628 snaps, but he’s a low upside slot specialist, receiving PFF grades of 64.1 and 63.4 on snap counts of 674 and 677 in 2022 and 2023 as well. This season, the Lions are hoping their other starting outside cornerback Terrion Arnold can take a step forward and be their second best cornerback. Arnold struggled last season with a 51.5 PFF grade across 947 snaps, but he was only a rookie and the 2024 1st round pick still has a huge upside, only going into his age 22 season.

The Lions also used a second round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a cornerback, taking Ennis Rakestraw, who also had a disappointing rookie season, playing just 46 snaps and receiving a 42.8 PFF grade. Now going into his second season in the league, the Lions are hoping he can at least lock down the #4 cornerback job and be their top reserve, but that’s not necessarily a guarantee. He’ll face competition for that role from veteran free agent addition Avonte Maddox.

Maddox had PFF grades of 72.8 and 71.3 in 2021 and 2022, but he was limited to 10 games by injury in 2022, and then four games by injury in 2023, and then he struggled in a reserve role in 2024 upon his return, with a 56.3 PFF grade across 345 snaps. Maddox is still only going into his age 29 season, but he’s two years removed from his last solid season, which is why he had to settle for backup work this off-season. Still, as far as backup options go, he’s a pretty good one. The Lions are obviously much better at safety than cornerback, but their cornerback room has a good chance to be better this season if Reed can stay healthier than Davis and Arnold can take a step forward in his second season in the league. Overall, this is an above average secondary.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Lions signed 2023 undrafted free agent Jake Bates to compete to be their kicker last off-season, after one year in the UFL, and the move paid off, as Bates ranked 9th in the NFL last season with 5.97 points above average. Bates made 26 of 29 field goals, including 13 of 16 from 40+ yards, 6 of 8 from 50+ yards, and all 13 from inside 40, though he did miss three extra points. Bates has only played one year, but he has a good chance to be an above average kicker for years to come. 

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Lions’ offense should take a big step back this season, given that their offensive line should decline and that they are unlikely to be as healthy on offense as they were a year ago, but they are starting from such a high base point that they should still be an effective unit. Meanwhile, their defense has a chance to take a big step forward this season, given that they are highly unlikely to have as many injury problems as a year ago. The loss of so many coaches this off-season is a concern, but overall on paper this still looks like one of the top few teams in the league.

Prediction: 12-5, 2nd in NFC North

Buffalo Bills 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Quarterback

The Bills went 13-3 in meaningful regular season games last year, locking up the #2 seed before week 18 and resting starters in the final week of the season as a result. However, there are some reasons to expect them to regress in terms of win total in 2025. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Bills were only slightly above average at +1.55% and +0.50 respectively, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. The reason the Bills were able to win significantly more games than those numbers would suggest is their turnover margin, which led the league at +24, but turnover margin has very little year-to-year correlation. 

The Bills especially excelled in fumble margin at +14, which has no year-to-year correlation, nor does their league leading fumble recovery percentage. In fact, just one year prior in 2023, the Bills were just +2 in turnover margin and +2 in fumble margin. For the Bills to continue winning at the same rate they won at last season, they will have to elevate their overall level of play, rather than just relying on turnovers, and I don’t think they improved enough this off-season for that to happen. This isn’t to say they will become a bad team or even miss the playoffs, but I would expect their win total to come down, perhaps significantly.

The Bills’ offense was by far their better side of the ball last season, ranking 4th in first down rate and 6th in yards per play, and I expect that to continue in 2025. At quarterback, the Bills have the reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league for several years. Since 2020, he has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 165 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions through the air, with 3,001 yards and 48 touchdowns on 561 carries (5.35 YPC) on the ground, while making every start. 

However, last season was the best season of Allen’s career and he might not be able to be quite as good this season, particularly in terms of interception rate, as Allen threw an interception on just 1.2% of his passes last season, as opposed to 2.4% over the previous four seasons. If that interception rate creeps back up and the Bills’ fumble margin normalizes next season, they will have a significant drop off in turnover margin, which seems likely, given how turnover margins typically vary year-to-year.

Allen almost never misses time with injury, with his last game missed coming back in his rookie season in 2018, but he does take more hits than the average quarterback because of how much he takes off and runs with the ball, which could eventually catch up with him. If he happens to miss time this season, Allen would be replaced by backup Mitch Trubisky, who is a decent, but underwhelming backup. Trubisky was once the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he only has a career 86.0 QB rating in 57 starts, which is why he has settled into a backup role, making just seven starts over the past four seasons. He would obviously be a huge downgrade from Allen if he had to step in and play, but the same can be said of any quarterback backing up an elite quarterback like Allen, so that isn’t necessarily a knock on Trubisky as a backup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Bills largely bring back the same supporting cast as last season on offense, with the only significant change being that they didn’t bring back veteran wide receiver Mack Hollins and instead signed Joshua Palmer, but that figures to be an upgrade. Hollins actually led this receiving corps in routes run, but was very inefficient, turning 50 targets into just a 31/378/5 slash line and averaging just 0.92 yards per route run. Palmer has largely been underwhelming in his career, since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, averaging just 1.39 yards per route run, but that average has increased to 1.59 over the past two seasons, he gets an upgrade in quarterback by joining the Bills, he is still only in his age 26 season, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Hollins.

Palmer might not necessarily step right into Hollins’ old role, as some of Hollins’ vacated snaps could go to Khalil Shakir, who was their most effective receiver last season, and Keon Coleman, a 2024 2nd round pick who might have the highest upside of this group. Both Shakir and Coleman were significantly more efficient than Hollins last season and both will probably be more efficient than Palmer this season. Shakir is the Bills’ de facto #1 wide receiver, leading the team in targets (100), catches (76), and receiving yards (821), while averaging 2.15 yards per route run, good for 21st in the NFL among wide receivers. 

Shakir’s performance didn’t come out of nowhere either, as the 2022 5th round had averaged 1.84 yards per route run in 2023. Still only in his age 25 season, Shakir should continue playing at a similar level and, if he sees an uptick in playing time, he could easily exceed last year’s total receiving numbers. Coleman, meanwhile, averaged 1.71 yards per route run last season, turning only 57 targets into a 29/556/4 slash line, despite being considered raw as a draft prospect. He could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league, still only his age 22 season. 

With Shakir, Coleman, and Palmer likely locked in as the Bills’ top-3 receivers, that leaves Curtis Samuel as the #4 receiver at best. Samuel was signed to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal last off-season to potentially play a significant role in this offense, but he only ended up playing 378 snaps and struggled with a 1.11 yards per route run average, down from his career average of 1.35. Only in his age 29 season, Samuel should have some bounce back potential in 2025, but he would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role. He’s only still on the team because most of his salary is guaranteed.

Samuel could also face competition for the top reserve role from free agent addition Elijah Moore. Moore only signed for 1-year, 2.5 million and has only averaged 1.10 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but he has never had a good quarterback and is still only in his age 25 season, so he comes with some upside. However, like Samuel, he will need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid also had a solid 1.62 yards per route run last season, though he missed four games due to injury and split snaps with Dawson Knox, who played 616 snaps in 16 games, as compared to 469 snaps in 13 games for Kincaid. That limited Kincaid to just a 44/448/2 slash line overall. A first round pick in 2023, Kincaid had a lower yards per route run average as a rookie at 1.46, but he finished with a 73/673/2 slash line because he was healthier, while Knox missed four games due to injury. 

Knox only averaged 1.04 yards per route run last season and has only averaged 1.08 yards per route run in his career, so the Bills may opt to start giving Kincaid a bigger role at Knox’s expense in 2025, giving Kincaid significant production upside going into his third season in the league, but it’s also possible Knox continues cutting into his playing time. This is overall a deep receiving corps, even if they don’t have a true #1 receiver.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One potential concern for this offense in 2025 is that they are unlikely to stay as healthy as they did last season, when they had the third fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league. Their offensive line was their healthiest unit, as their starting five offensive linemen missed just one game between them, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2025. Another potential concern for this offensive line is the age of left tackle Dion Dawkins, who has been a consistently above average player since his rookie season in 2017, never receiving a PFF grade lower than 69.9, with a 72.9 PFF grade in 2024, but who is now going into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season as a result. 

Right tackle Spencer Brown was their highest graded offensive lineman last season, slightly ahead of Dawkins, finishing with a 73.6 PFF grade. That was a career best grade for him, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2021 3rd round pick had a 68.1 PFF grade in 2023. Brown could regress somewhat from his career best 2024 season, but he should still remain an above average starter, very much in his prime in his age 27 season. 

The Bills’ worst offensive lineman last season was right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, who had a 54.9 PFF grade. Torrence, a 2023 2nd round pick, also struggled as a rookie with a 56.0 PFF grade. He came into the league with a high upside and it’s possible he takes a step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he doesn’t, he figures to remain in his starting role because the Bills don’t have a better option, with their best alternative being free agent addition Kendrick Green, a 2021 3rd round pick who has made 19 starts in four seasons in the league and has never finished above 60 on PFF over the course of a full season.

Opposite Torrence at left guard, the Bills will once again have David Edwards, who has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career in which he has been the primary starter, including a 63.8 PFF grade in 2024. He figures to have a similar season again in 2025. Rounding out the offensive line at center is Connor McGovern, who had a 69.6 PFF grade last season, but that was a career best in six seasons in the league for the 2019 3rd round pick, who has only finished above 60 on PFF in three of those seasons. He could remain a capable starter, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat last season’s career best year.

The Bills also frequently used six offensive linemen together last season, move than any other team in the league, as their 6th offensive lineman Alec Anderson played 223 snaps in 16 meaningful games. Anderson is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had never played a snap in his career prior to last season, but he excelled as an extra offensive lineman, with a 72.8 PFF grade. He didn’t play more than 32 snaps in any meaningful game last season, but he does have the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and could easily find himself in a starting role at some point this season if and when injuries strike. That would be a concern though, as not only could Anderson struggle as a regular starting offensive lineman, but they would also have to find a replacement for Anderson as the 6th offensive lineman in that scenario This is a solid offensive line, but they are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Bills also got a productive year out of lead back James Cook, who took 207 carries for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns (4.87 YPC), while ranking 10th in the NFL among running backs in carry success rate at 53.1%. Cook benefited significantly from Josh Allen being lined up in the backfield with him though, as defenses had to worry about Allen taking off and running with the ball himself. In terms of elusive rating, which takes into account how often a running back breaks tackles and how many yards he gets after contact, Cook was at just 54.5, 33rd among 57 eligible running backs. This has been a trend for Cook, who has averaged 4.95 yards per carry on 533 carries in three seasons in the league, but has just a career 53.2 elusive rating, with 2.99 yards per carry after contact and a 17.4% missed tackle rate.

Cook now is heading into the final year of his rookie deal and wants a top of the market contract, which the Bills seem hesitant to give him, likely realizing how much of his success is due to the talent around him. Cook could potentially hold out for an extended period of time in search of this new deal and there is a history of running backs underperforming after extended holdouts, but there is very little incentive for Cook to actually miss games due to his holdout. One way or another, he figures to return as the Bills’ feature back for at least one more season, in a similar role to last season. 

Cook also contributes in the passing game, with a 1.15 yards per route run average in 2024 and a career 1.34 yards per route run average. When he needs a break on passing downs, the Bills typically bring in Ty Johnson, who only played 315 snaps last season, but 237 of them came on passing downs, almost the same amount as Cook, who played 248 passing down snaps. In his career, Johnson has averaged 1.17 yards per route run, including 1.54 over the past two seasons since joining the Bills. He’s only had 279 carries in six seasons in the league, including just 41 last season, and his career 4.55 YPC average is largely the result of only getting carries in long yardage situations when the defense is expecting the pass, but he is valuable in the specific role he plays.

The Bills also have Ray Davis, a 2024 4th round pick, as their primary backup on early downs, ranking second on the team with 113 carries last season. He only averaged 3.91 yards per carry on those carries, with a 45.1% carry success rate, but he did exceed Cook in elusive rating (70.9) and he has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league. He didn’t play much in passing situations last season, ranking third on the team among running backs in passing down snaps, but he did show a lot of potential, with 1.87 yards per route run. If Cook isn’t kept beyond this season, it’s possible Davis gets the opportunity to be the starter in 2026 and beyond. This is a deep backfield that fits well together, though a potential holdout by Cook is a concern.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

With the Bills’ offense played at a high level last season and will likely continue doing so in 2025, the Bills’ defense struggled, ranking 25th in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, and, with their turnover margin likely to regress significantly this season, the Bills’ defense could easily get exposed and cost them more games than it did last season if they don’t significantly improve their level of play. Defensive performance tends to be much less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, which is a good thing for this defense as they could easily be better on defense this season by default, but the Bills really didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to improve on defense this off-season.

At the edge defender position, the Bills let go of their top-3 reserves, Dawuane Smoot (322 snaps), Von Miller (279 snaps), and Casey Toohill (249 snaps) and replaced them with veterans Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht and third round pick Landon Jackson, which isn’t necessarily an upgrade. Smoot and Toohill struggled last season, with PFF grades of 57.7 and 51.1, but Von Miller excelled as a situational pass rusher, with a 15.3% pressure rate and a 82.4 PFF grade. 

Miller will mostly directly be replaced by Joey Bosa, another accomplished, but aging pass rusher. Throughout the first eight seasons of Bosa’s career from 2016-2023, the former 3rd overall pick finished above 75 on PFF in every season, with six seasons above 80, while totaling 67 sacks, 83 hits, and a 14.9% pressure rate in 93 games, but durability increasingly became an issue for him, as he missed 38 total games in those eight seasons, including 20 games missed in 2022 and 2023 combined. 

In 2024, Bosa’s injuries seemed to catch up with him. He only missed three games, but he was limited to 32.6 snaps per game and had just a 63.9 PFF grade with just a 10.8% pressure rate, all three of which were the lowest of his career. Bosa is now going into his age 30 season and, while he isn’t totally over the hill and could have some bounce back potential if he stays healthy, his best days are likely to be gone at this point. Even in a limited situational role, he’s unlikely to be as efficient rushing the passer as Miller was last season.

Bosa has the most upside of the reserve options. Hoecht has played 2,008 snaps over the past three seasons, but has been middling at best, with PFF grades of 65.4, 61.7, and 61.3 respectively and a pressure rate of just 10.7% across the three seasons. He could benefit from playing a smaller role in Buffalo, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s also facing a 6-game PED suspension to start the season. In his absence, the Bills may have to rely more on Bosa or on the rookie Jackson, who could be a starter long-term, but who also could be raw as a rookie. The Bills also have 2024 5th round pick Javon Solomon, who flashed potential as a rookie with a 73.1 PFF grade and a 15.7% pressure rate, albeit across just 135 total snaps, and he could be in line for a bigger role in year two.

Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa remain as the starters. Rousseau is by far their best player at the position and arguably is the best player on this entire defense, posting a 83.1 PFF grade last season, his third straight season above 80. In 2022 and 2023, Rousseau’s snap count was limited to 463 and 585 respectively, but that jumped up to 736 in 2024 and he maintained the same level of efficiency. In total, he has 21 sacks, 38 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 45 games over the past three seasons and, still only in his age 25 season, the former first round pick might still have further untapped upside. He should at least repeat his 2024 performance in 2025 and could be even better.

Epenesa, on the other hand, struggled last season, with a 54.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps and just a 5.9% pressure rate. The 2020 2nd round pick has had some better seasons in the past, but he never exceeded 388 snaps played in a season prior to last season and likely needs a reduced role if he wants to have a chance of bouncing back in 2025. That would require one or multiple of their reserves to play more than any of their reserves did last season. 

Bosa has the potential to do so, or even to take over the starting role from Epenesa, while Hoecht could be a slight upgrade by default over Epenesa when he is done with his suspension, and the youngsters Jackson and Solomon have upside as well, but chances are Epenesa will again have to play more than the Bills would like, even if his role is less than it was last season. Greg Rousseau elevates this position group significantly by himself and the rest of the bunch have upside if they can find the right rotation, but there is still some concern with this position group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, Ed Oliver (603 snaps) and DaQuan Jones (547 snaps) were a solid starting duo last season, with PFF grades of 71.0 and 64.6 respectively. Oliver struggled against the run, but excelled as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate, which is largely in line with how he’s played throughout his six seasons in the league, as he’s finished above 60 on PFF as a run defender just once, but has finished above 60 as a pass rusher in all six seasons, with four seasons above 70. In total, he has 27 sacks, 52 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 92 career games. Still in his age 28 season, Oliver should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Jones, on the other hand, has been a consistently well-rounded player in his career, only totaling 16 sacks, 45 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 148 games over the past ten seasons, but finishing above 60 in run defense in all but two of those seasons and finishing above 60 overall in all of those seasons, with six seasons above 70. The problem is he’s now going into his age 34 season and, coming off the 2nd lowest PFF grade of those ten seasons, he could have already started a decline that will further continue into 2025. To prepare for Jones’ getting up there in age, the Bills used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on TJ Sanders and Deone Walker and they used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on DeWayne Carter, but Carter had a 41.4 PFF grade across 315 snaps as a rookie and it’s far from a guarantee that any of those three will ever develop into as good of a player as Jones was in his prime.

The Bills also added veteran Larry Ogunjobi as a free agent to give them additional depth, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, including a 49.4 PFF grade across 495 snaps last season, and now he is going into his age 31 season and also facing a 6-game PED suspension. Most likely, the higher drafted Sanders and the veteran Ogunjobi will be the primary reserves, with the lower drafted Walker and Carter, who struggled as a rookie, as deeper reserves, but Ogunjobi’s suspension will force Walker and/or Carter into bigger roles to start the season. If the aging DaQuan Jones declines significantly, this position group could have a big problem.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Bills have an unsettled group. Matt Milano was once a consistently above average every down linebacker, receiving PFF grades of 70.1 and 73.7 on snap counts of 915 and 946 as recently as 2021 and 2022, but injuries have limited him to 394 snaps in nine games over the past two seasons and he’s now missed significant time with injury in three of the past five seasons. His injuries seemed to take a toll on him upon his return last season, as he struggled mightily with a 48.0 PFF grade across 183 snaps in four games.

Milano could have some bounce back potential in 2025 if he’s healthy, but he’s now in his age 30 season, so it seems likely that his best days are behind him at this point. Because of that, the Bills made him take a pay cut from the 20 million he was owed over the next two seasons to a 1-year, 6.3 million dollar deal. His salary still suggests the Bills view him as a starter, but how much he’ll be able to play and how effective he will be remain up in the air.

In Milano’s absence last season, Terrel Bernard (750 snaps) and Dorian Williams (651 snaps) were their top-2 linebackers. Bernard struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade, but he was better in 2023 when he had a 64.0 PFF grade across 999 snaps, so the 2022 3rd round pick could have some bounce back potential in 2025. Williams, on the other hand, was the opposite, as the 2023 3rd round pick had a 55.2 PFF grade across 211 snaps as a rookie, but improved to a 61.6 PFF grade in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2024. Both players have decent upsides, but both are underwhelming starting options. They will likely compete for one starting role opposite Milano, with the other being the top reserve and a situational option. This group has upside overall, but also significant downside in a worst case scenario.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Other than maybe Greg Rousseau, the Bills’ best defensive player last season was cornerback Christian Benford, who ranked 4th among cornerbacks with an 82.6 PFF grade. That wasn’t out of character for Benford either, as he had an 82.2 PFF grade in 2023 as well. Benford was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but he has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and he is only going into his age 25 season, so he should remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league for the foreseeable future.

The Bills did not get as good of play from their other outside cornerback last season though, as Rasul Douglas finished with a 59.2 PFF grade and was subsequently let go this off-season. To replace him, the Bills used their first round pick on Nate Hairston, who is raw, but has a high upside and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Douglas. He could face competition for his starting job from Tre’Davious White, a former first round pick of the Bills, who used to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league from 2017-2020

That was before he suffered a torn ACL and a torn achilles in a two-year span from 2021-2023 though, which led to him playing just 892 snaps over the past three seasons combined. White was released by the Bills last off-season and spent 2024 with the Rams and Ravens, with whom he combined for a 52.9 PFF grade across 403 snaps. That was only the first season of his career below 60 on PFF, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and it’s highly unlikely he will ever come close to regaining his pre-injury form. He’s not a bad insurance option to have, but the Bills are definitely hoping Hairston can win the job and keep White as a reserve.

Taron Johnson remains as the slot cornerback. He finished last season with a 65.0 PFF grade across 646 snaps in 12 games, with five games missed due to injury. That’s largely in line with how he’s played throughout his 7-year career, as he’s finished in the 60s in six of those seven seasons. The one exception was a 80.2 PFF grade in 2023, but it’s likely that will prove to be a fluke when all is said and done. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect Johnson to remain a solid, but unspectacular solid cornerback in 2025.

At safety, the Bills bring back their top-4 safeties from a year ago in terms of snaps played, but none of them were better than a replacement level player, so this position group looks unsettled going into 2025. Damar Hamlin led the group with 875 snaps played, but had just a 60.2 PFF grade, which is in line with how he played in the only other season in his career in which he saw significant action, as he had a 61.4 PFF grade across 845 snaps in 2022. If he remains a starter in 2025, he will likely remain a replacement level player.

Taylor Rapp was the other starter last season, but he was even worse, with a 59.0 PFF grade across 779 snaps. He’s had better years in the past, as the 2019 2nd round pick finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, including a career best 76.2 PFF grade across 976 snaps in 2022, but he’s now finished below 60 in two straight seasons, so the odds are decreasing that he ever returns to his old form. He’s still only in his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he could continue struggling.

Cam Lewis was the highest graded of the bunch last season, but even he only had a 61.4 PFF grade and that came across just 597 snaps. The 2019 undrafted free agent has shown some potential in his career, but he only played 380 snaps in five seasons in the league prior to last season and is a projection to an every down role, so he’s best as a situational reserve. Cole Bishop, meanwhile, might have the highest upside of the bunch, but the 2024 2nd round pick struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade across 358 snaps last season and, while he could be better in his second season in the league, he has a long way to go to even be a replacement level starting caliber player. He too will likely remain a reserve in 2025, even in an overall underwhelming safety group. Top cornerback Christian Benford elevates this group significantly by himself and Taron Johnson is entrenched on the slot, but the rest of this position group has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B

Kicker

Kicker Tyler Bass has been a weak point of the Bills’ roster for a few years, finishing below average in four of five seasons in the league, costing the Bills 11.49 points compared to league average over that time, including 1.64 in 2024. He’s made 84.5% of his field goals in his career, but has overall had a relatively low difficulty level, attempting just 23 kicks of 50+ yards in his career. The Bills didn’t bring in any competition for him this off-season and seem content to give him another shot in 2025, but he figures to be at least somewhat below average again.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Bills won 13 games last season, but their first down rate differential and yards per play differential were more in line with a 10-win team. Their offense played at a high level and will likely continue doing so in 2025, but their defense struggled and will also likely continue doing so in 2024. Meanwhile, their +24 turnover margin is highly unlikely to come close to repeating, given the volatility of turnover margins on a year-to-year basis. Assuming that happens, that will expose the Bills’ defense more than it was exposed last season. Fortunately, they still look like clearly the best team in their division and they overall have one of the easiest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in AFC East

Los Angeles Chargers 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

In 2023, the Chargers were a pass heavy team, ranking 3rd in pass attempts and 24th in rush attempts, with a poor defense, ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 18th in first down rate allowed, and a poor offensive line, ranking 13th in PFF pass blocking and 32nd in PFF run blocking grade. They subsequently brought in Jim Harbaugh as their new head coach and he transformed the team immediately. In 2024, they ranked 28th in pass attempts, 12th in rush attempts, 13th in yards per play allowed, 4th in first down rate allowed, 8th in PFF pass blocking grade, and 21st in run blocking grade, a remarkable transformation in just one year.

Most importantly, the Chargers went from a 5-12 record in 2023 to a 11-6 record in 2024, while making a surprise playoff appearance. Perhaps most impressive, the Chargers made this transformation with little financial flexibility. The Chargers had to cut their top-2 wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last off-season just to get under the cap and didn’t make a single external free agent signing of more than 5 million annually. The numerous career best years the Chargers got out of cheap signings, as well as the impact of their rookie class, are a testament to the coaching job of Harbaugh and his staff.

Going into 2025, there are some concerns. For one, one aspect where the Chargers’ improved drastically last season is unlikely to continue, as the Chargers ranked tied for third in the NFL with a +12 turnover margin, which is one of the most volatile year-to-year stats. In terms of first down rate and yards per play differential, which are more predictive, the Chargers were not as good as their record, ranking 11th at +1.12% and 16th at +0.10 respectively, particularly underwhelming on offense, where they ranked 18th in first down rate and 16th in yards per play. 

On top of that, many of the signings the Chargers made last off-season were one-year deals and many of those players were not retained this off-season, while minimal money was spent to replace them this off-season, particularly on defense. Already ranked just 24th in average annual value of their roster last season, the Chargers fell to 30th this off-season and that is a metric that is highly correlated with winning percentage. Harbaugh and his staff are as qualified as anyone to get the most out of their players, but, at least on paper, this roster doesn’t look as good now as it did a year ago. The Chargers will also face a tougher schedule in 2025, as they ranked 30th in opponents’ record last season and now are projected to rank 12th this season.

One important constant in all of the Chargers’ changes over the past two off-seasons has been quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert seemed to benefit from the Chargers’ change in offensive philosophy under Harbaugh, which had him go from 39.1 pass attempts per game in his first four seasons in the league to just 29.4 pass attempts per game last season. Despite the loss of his top-2 wide receivers last off-season and an underwhelming receiving corps overall, Herbert set a new career high in yards per attempt last season at 7.68 and a new career high in touchdown to interception ratio at 23/3, while completing 65.9% of his passes, in line with his career average. Herbert also set new career highs in rush attempts at 69 and rushing yards at 306. His interception rate is highly unlikely to stay as low again in 2025, just given the inherent volatility of that metric, but the rest of his stats have a good chance to remain about the same. 

Herbert made it through last season without missing any starts, but he has missed time in two of his five seasons in the league. If he misses time in 2025, he will either be replaced by Taylor Heinicke, a low upside career backup in his age 32 season with a 84.1 QB rating in 29 starts in ten seasons in the league, or Trey Lance, a former #3 overall pick and massive bust who has made just five starts and has just a 80.3 QB rating in four seasons in the league, but who is still only going into his age 25 season and who at least still has theoretical upside as a backup. Whoever wins the backup job will obviously be a big downgrade from Herbert, an above average starting quarterback who seems to thrive in the Chargers’ new offensive system.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One key addition from last off-season who was not retained this off-season is running back JK Dobbins, who rushed for 4.64 YPC on 195 carries last season. Dobbins had always had talent, as the 2020 2nd round pick averaged 5.76 YPC in his first four seasons in the league, but injuries limited him to just 234 carries in 24 games in those four seasons. In 2024, Dobbins still missed four games with injury, but he was much healthier than he had been in the past and was able to show his talent as a result. 

To replace Dobbins, the Chargers initially signed Najee Harris, who is essentially the opposite of Dobbins. While Dobbins has just 429 carries in five seasons in the league, with 47 total games missed, Harris hasn’t missed a game in four seasons in the league, while totaling 1,097 carries over that stretch. Additionally, while Dobbins has 37.9% of his career rushing yards on runs of 15+ yards, of which he has 31 on 429 career carries, Harris has just 20.2% of his career rushing yards on carries of that length, with just 41 carries of that length on 1,097 career carries.

Harris has a career 3.93 YPC and a career 46.4% success rate, while Dobbins has a career 5.25 YPC and a career 50.3% success rate, so he would have likely been a downgrade from Dobbins, but fortunately the Chargers also used their first round pick on running back Omarion Hampton. Harris got a 1-year, 5.25 million dollar deal, so he will probably at least split carries with Hampton to start the season, but Hampton figures to be the more effective back and it’s not hard to imagine he will be the clear lead back by the end of the season. Hampton also has more upside in passing situations than Harris, who has averaged just 0.97 yards per route run in his career.

In addition to Dobbins being gone, the Chargers also didn’t bring back Gus Edwards, which isn’t a huge loss, as he averaged 3.61 yards per carry and had a 49.5% carry success rate last season. The Chargers’ top returning running back is last year’s #3 back Kimani Vidal. He averaged just 3.60 YPC on 43 carries, with 0.74 yards per route run on 84 routes run, but the 2024 6th round pick could take a step forward in his second season in the league and, even if he doesn’t, the Chargers won’t need him for a big role unless both of their top-2 backs go down. Harris and Hampton figure to get the vast majority of the carries when both are healthy and, if one goes down, the other figures to take over as the feature back, leaving Vidal to sprinkle in for a few touches here and there. This backfield has upside, led by first round pick rookie Omarion Hampton. 

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the players who significantly exceeded expectations last season was second round rookie Ladd McConkey, who finished the season with a 82/1149/7 slash line on 112 targets, while averaging 2.38 yards per route run, 9th best among eligible wide receivers. He could easily repeat or exceed that production in his second season in the league in 2025. The rest of this receiving corps was an issue last season though and could remain one this season. 

Quentin Johnston was the de facto #2 receiver last season, finishing the season with a 55/711/8 slash line on 91 targets and 1.77 yards per route run. That was a huge step forward from his rookie season, when the 2023 1st round pick looked like a bust, with a 38/431/2 slash line on 67 targets and 0.88 yards per route run. His numbers last season weren’t bad, but he was mostly the beneficiary of playing a significant role with a good quarterback, rather than actually playing well himself. He still hasn’t lived up to his draft slot, but he’s only going into his age 24 season and could take another step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, though that’s obviously not a guarantee.

Johnston isn’t even guaranteed a starting role. Joshua Palmer, their de facto #3 receiver last season, is gone, after a mediocre season with a 39/584/1 slash line on 65 targets and 1.49 yards per route run, but the Chargers added Tre Harris in the second round of the draft and brought back veteran Mike Williams after he didn’t pan out last season between two teams with the Jets and Steelers. Harris, Williams, and Johnston will compete to be the #2 and #3 receivers after McConkey, who is locked in as the #1. 

Mike Williams had 1000+ yard seasons in 2019 and 2021 and had a 63/895/4 slash line and 1.93 yards per route run as recently as 2022, but he tore his ACL three games into the 2023 season and did not appear to be the same in 2024, managing just a 21/298/1 slash line and 0.87 yards per route run. He could bounce back in 2025 another year removed from his injury, in a better offense, back with his old team, but he’s also going into his age 31 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. In an ideal situation, the younger, higher upside Johnston and Harris would beat out Williams, leaving him as a reserve option. 

The tight end position was even a bigger concern than wide receiver last season, especially given how much Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have historically used the tight end position in their offense. Because of that, it is surprising they didn’t do anything to add to the position aside from signing veteran Tyler Conklin, who has a career 1.12 yards per route run average and is now going into his age 30 season, and using a 5th round pick on Oronde Gadsden, who is highly unlikely to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. 

Will Dissly remains the starter, after a 2024 season in which he had a 50/481/2 slash line on 64 targets and averaged 1.65 yards per route run, solid numbers, but mostly the product of playing a significant role in a good passing game, rather than anything Dissly did well himself. His career 1.49 yards per route run average is not bad, but last season was the first of his 7-year career in which he played more than a part-time role and, aside from last season, his career high in receiving yardage is 349. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, but aside from Ladd McConkey, the rest of this group is a marginal bunch who doesn’t move the needle and just benefits from playing with a high level quarterback.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Chargers’ offensive line improved significantly from 2023 to 2024. The biggest reason for that was the addition of right tackle Joe Alt, who they selected 5th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Alt immediately lived up to his draft slot, finishing his rookie season with a 77.6 PFF grade in 16 starts. He looks likely to develop into one of the best offensive linemen in the league for years to come and, while development isn’t always linear, he could easily take another step forward in 2025.

Opposite Joe Alt at left tackle, the Chargers have another former first round pick, RaShawn Slater, who was selected 13th overall in 2021, and he had a career best year in 2024, finishing second among offensive tackles on PFF with a 91.1 grade. That wasn’t out of nowhere though, as he finished with PFF grades of 83.6, 84.0, and 76.6 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. He might not be quite as good in 2025, but he’s still only in his age 26 season and looks likely to remain one of the best left tackles in the league for years to come.

The Chargers also made a big addition on the offensive line this off-season, signing Mekhi Becton to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal. Becton is only going into his age 26 season, had a 75.3 PFF grade in 15 starts with the Eagles last season, and is a former first round pick, selected 11th overall in 2020 by the Jets, but he comes with some risk. Becton entered the league as a tackle and had a 74.4 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie, but injuries limited him to 48 snaps total over the next two seasons and he struggled upon his return in 2023, with a 53.2 PFF grade in 16 starts, before having his career saved when he signed with the Eagles last off-season and moved to right guard. It’s possible Becton could repeat his 2025 season away from the Eagles, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Becton will replace Trey Pipkins at right guard and it’s likely Pipkins will head to the bench, but it’s also possible Pipkins moves to left guard and incumbent left guard Zion Johnson moves to center, sending incumbent center Bradley Bozeman to the bench. Bozeman had a decent 61.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, while making 93 starts over that stretch, but last season was his worst PFF grade since his rookie season in 2018 and now he’s going into his age 31 season and could decline further. He’s been better in his career than Pipkins, who has PFF grades of 59.2, 62.8, and 57.8 in the past three seasons, his only three seasons as a regular starter, but Pipkins is only in his age 29 season and it’s possible he’d be a better starter in 2025 than Bozeman would. 

Zion Johnson is also a former first round pick, selected 17th overall in 2022, but he hasn’t lived up to the billing, receiving PFF grades of 64.8, 57.6, and 65.7 in three seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and last season was the best of his career, but it’s still unclear if he can ever develop into anything more than a decent starter. A move further inside to center could jumpstart his career, but he could also struggle to adapt to his new position. Most likely, he’ll remain at guard with Bozeman at center and Pipkins going to the bench, but that remains to be decided.

Along with either Bozeman or Pipkins, who can also play tackle, the Chargers also have Jamaree Salyer as a reserve option and he can also play both guard and tackle. The 2022 6th round pick exceeded expectations as a rookie with a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts at tackle, as an injury replacement for Slater, but he declined to a 54.2 PFF grade in 17 starts at guard in 2023 and was limited to 339 snaps and 4 starts in 2024 and again struggled with a 57.6 PFF grade, mostly playing guard, but also seeing some action at tackle. He’s not a bad reserve, but he probably won’t be the first one off the bench this season, with either Bozeman or Pipkins being sent to the bench. Overall, this is an above average offensive line, improved by the addition of Mekhi Becton.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Chargers’ offense looks likely to be comparably good to last season, if not better, their defense lost some key players who were not retained. Perhaps the most important of these players was interior defender Poona Ford, who ranked 5th among interior defenders with a 85.1 PFF grade across 604 snaps last season. The Chargers also lost Morgan Fox, not nearly as big of a loss, but he did play 577 snaps and, while he struggled against the run, he at least contributed as a pass rusher with 3.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 7.6% pressure rate.

To attempt to replace Ford and Fox, the Chargers signed Da’Shawn Hand and Naquan Jones and used a third round pick on Jamaree Caldwell. Hand showed a lot of potential early in his career, with a 85.2 PFF grade across 455 snaps in 13 games as a rookie in 2018, but injuries limited him to 558 total snaps in 16 games from 2019 to 2022. He played a then career high 16 games in 2023 and once again flashed potential with a 85.0 PFF grade, but that came across just 199 snaps and he couldn’t continue that in 2024, while setting new career highs in games (17) and snaps (564), as he finished last season with just a 60.5 PFF grade. Now going into his age 30 season, he has likely run out of time to make good on his potential and, in a best case scenario, he can be a solid rotational player if healthy.

Naquan Jones, meanwhile, has played just 229 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, while finishing below 60 in three of those seasons, though he did have a career best 63.2 PFF grade across 260 snaps last season. Still, he looks like an underwhelming rotational option. He could easily be behind the rookie Caldwell on the depth chart. Caldwell has the tools to be a future starter, but he could prove to be raw and struggle as a rookie. 

The newcomers will rotate with top holdovers Otito Ogbonnia (506 snaps) and Teair Tart (349 snaps). Ogbonnia struggled with a 40.0 PFF grade, which is what he has done throughout his three seasons in the league, as the 2022 5th round received PFF grades of 43.2 and 50.4 respectively across snap counts of 138 and 233 in his first two seasons in the league. He figures to continue struggling in 2025. Tart, on the other hand, was impressive, albeit in limited action, with a 76.9 PFF grade. He’s been pretty inconsistent in his career though, finishing above 70 on PFF twice, but below 60 three times, on an average of 349 snaps per season in five seasons in the league. He could easily regress in 2025. With Ford gone and Tart a regression candidate, this position group looks very underwhelming.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Chargers also lost Joey Bosa this off-season, which would have been a huge deal a couple seasons ago, but Bosa looked like a shell of his former Pro-Bowl self in 2024, finishing with a 63.9 PFF grade across 457 snaps. The Chargers only replaced him with a 4th round pick Kyle Kennard though and he figures to be a downgrade even from the 2024 version of Bosa. A bigger concern is that the Chargers’ top edge defender Khalil Mack is going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly, after finishing 2024 with a 90.4 PFF grade across 617 snaps. That was his seventh season above 90 in eleven seasons in the league and his ninth over 80, but his age is becoming a big concern and, even if he only declines to an above average starter, rather than an elite one, that would have a noticeable impact on this defense.

Mack will continue starting opposite Tuli Tuipulotu, a 2023 2nd round pick who has been solid, but unspectacular through two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 71.0 and 66.6 across snap counts of 852 and 734 respectively. He’s been at his best as a run defender, but also has 13 sacks, 19 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 34 career games. Now going into his third season in the league and only his age 23 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise for Tuipulotu to have a career best year in 2025, though that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, it might not be enough to compensate for any potential decline from Khalil Mack.

With Bosa gone, the Chargers could rely more on Bud Dupree, who was their top reserve last season with 547 snaps played. Unfortunately, Dupree struggled with a 47.1 PFF grade and is unlikely to be better in 2025. He was a solid player earlier in his career, but now has finished below 60 in four straight seasons and now he is heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily continue struggling, especially in the likely scenario that he has to play a bigger role with Bosa gone. This isn’t a bad position group overall, but it’s likely to be worse than a year ago, with Bosa gone and Mack’s age being a big concern.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chargers’ linebacking corps was a solid group last season and they return all of their key players for 2025. Only one of those players was an every down player though, Daiyan Henley, who had a 70.2 PFF grade across 998 snaps. A third round pick in 2023, Henley only played 54 snaps as a rookie before breaking out in 2024, but he showed promise with a 69.9 PFF grade and it shouldn’t be a surprise if he remains an above average every down player in 2025 and beyond. 

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ next three linebackers in terms of snaps played were Denzel Perryman (340 snaps), Troy Dye (318 snaps), and Junior Colson (218 snaps). Perryman was their primary base package run stopping linebacker when on the field, but he missed six games, forcing Dye into that role, while Colson was a coverage specialist in sub packages. Perryman and Dye played decently, with PFF grades of 60.8 and 68.6 respectively, but Colson struggled with a 38.0 PFF grade.

Perryman and Dye might not be as good in 2025 though, Perryman because he is now going into his age 33 season and Dye because he’s a one-year wonder who only played 409 nondescript snaps in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. Perryman will likely remain the starter in base packages and he’s finished above 60 in run defense grade in seven of ten seasons in the league, but his age is a concern, as is his injury history, as he’s missed a total of 45 games in ten seasons in the league. 

While Perryman is healthy, Dye figures to be a reserve, though Perryman does figure to miss some time due to injury. Colson, meanwhile, will likely remain a coverage specialist. He is a 2024 3rd round pick who could take a step forward in 2025, but even if he does, he has a long way to go until he’s even a decent contributor. The Chargers’ linebacking corps is questionable outside of Daiyan Henley, but Henley is an above average every down player and the rest of the group could form a useful rotation.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Chargers also lost cornerback Kristian Fulton this off-season. He was one of the cheap free agent signings the Chargers made last off-season who exceeded expectations, finishing with a 71.1 PFF grade across 760 snaps. He was replaced by Donte Jackson, who came over from the Steelers on a 2-year, 13 million dollar deal. He figures to be a downgrade. He’s had some solid seasons in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, but he struggled in the other three seasons, including a 50.0 PFF grade across 780 snaps in 2024 and now he’s going into his age 30 season and could easily continue struggling. 

Fortunately, Fulton wasn’t the only Chargers cornerback who exceeded expectations last season, as Tarheeb Still had a 74.1 PFF grade, despite being only a 5th round rookie. Still might not quite be as good in 2025, but he looks likely to at least be an above average cornerback for years to come, in spite of where he was drafted. The Chargers also got a surprisingly good year out of safety Elijah Molden, who had a 74.6 PFF grade across 761 snaps and was subsequently kept on a 3-year, 18.5 million dollar deal this off-season. 

Molden was originally added as a reserve, but original starter Alohi Gilman was limited to 658 snaps in 11 games by injuries, opening the door for Molden to start. Gilman also struggled last season with a 55.3 PFF grade, so there is a good chance Molden continues starting over him in 2024. Molden is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, receiving PFF grades of 64.1, 67.5, and 56.0 on snap counts of 632, 82, and 700 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, and he is coming off a major leg injury he suffered late last season, but the 2021 3rd round pick is only going into his age 26 season and could remain a solid starter, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season. Gilman, meanwhile, had a 86.1 PFF grade across 928 snaps in 2023, but that looks like a complete fluke, as the 2020 6th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in each of his other four seasons in the league.

Along with Gilman, the Chargers’ biggest weakness in the secondary last season was the cornerback position behind Still and Fulton. Ja’Sir Taylor struggled with a 56.7 PFF grade across 353 snaps as a slot specialist, while Cam Hart also struggled with a 56.6 PFF grade across 460 snaps as the top reserve outside cornerback. Both are likely to struggle again this season. Taylor, a 2022 6th round pick, has maxed out with a PFF grade of 60.6 in three seasons in the league, while Hart is a 2024 5th round pick who isn’t necessarily going to be better in his second season in the league in 2025. 

The Chargers did add some depth cornerback options this off-season, signing Benjamin St-Juste and using a 6th round pick on RJ Mickens, but neither are likely to play well if called upon to play a significant role in 2025. While Mickens is just a late round pick, St-Juste has played 718 snaps per season in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2021, but he has finished with PFF grades of 53.6, 58.3, 59.9, and 47.4. Even in a smaller role in 2025, he isn’t necessarily going to be better. The Chargers’ lack of depth at cornerback is even more concerning in 2025 than in 2024 because Donte Jackson is likely to be a significant downgrade from Kristian Fulton. 

The Chargers’ best defensive back last season was safety Derwin James, who finished with a 80.5 PFF grade across 986 snaps. James only had a 60.1 PFF grade across 1,001 snaps in 2023, but that looks like a fluke, as he’s finished above 75 in every other healthy season in his career. Availability has been a concern for him throughout his career though, as he’s missed 34 games in seven seasons in the league, while missing at least one game in each of those seven seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, James will likely continue playing at a high level in 2025, but he’s also likely to miss at least some time at some point. 

The Chargers’ safeties should be better in 2025 than 2024, with Elijah Molden likely to start over Alohi Gilman from the beginning of the season and Gilman potentially bouncing back somewhat to his 2023 form, but Molden is unlikely to be as good as he was last season, given his history, while Gilman’s 2023 is likely a fluke and he could easily continue struggling in 2025. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ cornerbacks are likely to be worse with Donte Jackson replacing Kristian Fulton. This isn’t a bad secondary, but overall it looks likely to be worse than a year ago.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Chargers for years used to have one of the shakiest kicker situations in the league, costing them numerous games, but midway through the 2022 season they signed rookie undrafted free agent Cameron Dicker, who proved to be a huge addition, as he’s led the league with 25.01 points above average over the past three seasons. In 2024, he ranked 4th in the league with 9.55 points above average. He should remain one of the best kickers in the league in 2025 and beyond.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Chargers are unlikely to have the same +12 turnover margin they had last season, due to the volatility of that metric and they had some notable off-season losses, particularly on defense. However, they have some of the best coaching staffs in the league led by Jim Harbaugh and could easily get the most out of their talent again this season, so they should at least remain in contention for a playoff spot.

Update: The loss of Rashawn Slater for the season with injury is a huge blow to this team’s playoff chances.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in AFC West