Quarterback

The Falcons finished 7-10 in 2023, but looked like they had a good chance to take a big step forward in 2024. The Falcons’ record was not impressive the season before, but they had an above average supporting cast, with their weak link being the quarterback position, which led the Falcons to a 27th ranked team QB rating at 80.5. The Falcons then overhauled the quarterback position last off-season, not only giving a big 4-year, 180 million dollar contract to a proven veteran free agent in Kirk Cousins, but also using the 8th overall pick on Michael Penix, to give them a pair of seemingly good options going into 2024. However, the Falcons only won one more game in 2024 and missed the post-season again.

The biggest reason for that was the decline of their defense, which I will get more into later. After ranking 7th in yards per play allowed and 8th in first down rate allowed in 2023, the Falcons fell to 19th and 23rd respectively in those two metrics in 2024. Their offense actually took a big step forward, going from 16th in yards per play and 19th in first down rate in 2023 to 8th and 11th respectively in those two metrics in 2024. However, quarterback play was not the biggest reason for their offensive success.

Kirk Cousins did not play as well as expected, failing to bounce back to form as a 36-year-old quarterback who was coming off of an achilles repair. Cousins completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 7.74 YPA, but had 16 interceptions to 18 touchdowns and was probably given too long of a leash. Penix eventually took over for Cousins for the final three games of the season, but the Falcons were on the outside looking in at a playoff spot at that point in the season and Penix wasn’t really any better, completing 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.38 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Penix was always going to be the Falcons’ future at quarterback and, though Kirk Cousins remains on the roster, Penix is the undisputed starter going into 2025. It’s tough to know what to expect from Penix given his limited NFL playing time, but he showed a lot of potential coming into the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in his second season in the league. Cousins, meanwhile, only remains on the roster because his 27.5 million dollar salary for 2025 was guaranteed either way and he could still find his way out of Atlanta via trade if the Falcons can find a team desperate enough to eat a big chunk of Cousins’ salary or give the Falcons a significant draft pick in return for the Falcons eating his salary.

The Falcons shouldn’t just give Cousins away though, as he could easily prove to be useful as a backup, considering how inexperienced Penix is and his history of injuries from his collegiate days. Cousins is now going into his age 37 season, but he’s also another year removed from his injury and he was a consistently above average quarterback before the injury, finishing above 75 on PFF in six straight seasons prior to 2025. His best days are probably behind him, but he’s one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and could find his way back into the starting lineup if Penix struggles or gets hurt. Chances are one of the two Falcons’ quarterbacks has a better year in 2025 than they did in 2024, but this is still a questionable position group when you compare it to many other teams around the league.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The biggest reason the Falcons had some offensive success last season was their running game, led by feature back Bijan Robinson, who rushed for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns across 304 carries (4.79 YPC), averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact, ranking 1st in the NFL among running backs with a 60.2% carry success rate, and breaking tackles at a 23.0% rate. Robinson also had a 61/431/1 slash line as a receiver with 1.11 yards per route run average, which, combined with his rushing prowess, led to Robinson ranking 2nd among running backs on PFF with a 92.8 overall grade, only behind Derrick Henry. 

Robinson entered the league with a lot of upside as the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and he showed that potential as a rookie, with 4.53 YPC on 214 carries, 3.10 YPC after contact, a 24.2% broken tackle rate, a 43.5% carry success rate, a 58/487/4 slash line, and 1.16 yards per route run, before taking a big step forward in his second season in the league. Still only going into his age 23 season, Robinson looks likely to be one of the best feature backs in the NFL for years to come, even when you consider how injury prone running backs tend to be and how short their careers tend to be.

The Falcons also have a great backup running back in Tyler Allgeier. In three seasons in the league, he has averaged 4.43 yards per carry, 3.37 yards per carry after contact, a 23.8% missed tackle rate, a 52.3% carry success rate, and 1.11 yards per route run, with 4.70 yards per carry, 3.61 yards per carry after contact, a 27.0% missed tackle rate, a 58.4% carry success rate, and 0.95 yards per route run in 2024. The Falcons are a run heavy team so, even with Robinson ahead of him on the depth chart and playing in all 17 games last season, Allgeier still got 137 carries last season. I expect a similar role for him in 2025 and for him to continue being effective as arguably the best backup running back in the NFL. 

With Robinson and Allgeier topping the depth chart, the Falcons don’t have much need for a third running back. That role will likely fall to Jase McClellan again, a 2024 6th round pick who averaged just 2.46 yards per carry as a rookie, but who fortunately only got 13 carries all season. Even if one of Robinson or Allgeier misses significant time with injury, the other would likely get the vast majority of the snaps, leaving McClellan as a sparingly used backup.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Falcons’ offensive line was also a strength last season, but there are reasons not to expect them to be quite as good in 2024. For one, center Drew Dalman, who had a 78.8 PFF grade last season, is no longer with the team and was replaced by career backup Ryan Neuzil, a 2021 undrafted free agent who had PFF grades of 55.3 and 58.5 across snap counts of 203 and 578 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, the only two seasons of his career in which he played significant action. He will almost definitely be a liability and a huge downgrade from Dalman in 2025.

On top of that, left tackle Jake Matthews is now going into his age 33 season and could decline. Matthews hasn’t shown any decline yet, finishing last season with a 79.8 PFF grade, his 10th straight season over 70 on PFF, and he’s been remarkably durable throughout his career, missing just one game ever, back in his rookie season in 2014, but if he declines even somewhat in 2025, it will have a noticeable effect on an offensive line that will already be missing center Drew Dalman. Right tackle Kaleb McGary is also going to be on the wrong side of 30 in 2025, though he fortunately is three years younger than Matthews. Over the past three seasons, McGary has PFF grades of 86.6, 75.5, and 73.8 respectively.

The rest of this offensive line should continue playing at the same level in 2025 at least. Lindstrom, a 2019 1st round pick, has developed into arguably the best guard in the league, with PFF grades of 77.1, 83.7, 95.0, 87.6, and 93.5 over the past five seasons respectively, while missing just one game due to injury over that stretch. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect another dominant season from him in 2025. He will start opposite Matthew Bergeron, a 2022 3rd round pick who had a 59.1 grade in 17 starts as a rookie and then took a step forward with a 70.9 grade in 17 starts in his second season in the league in 2024. He’s technically a one-year wonder, but has a good chance of at least remaining a solid starter, with the upside for more, now in his third season in the league.

The Falcons’ offensive line stayed mostly healthy last season, with just nine starts missed total, eight of them by Drew Dalman, who is no longer with the team and was replaced by his backup Ryan Nuezil. Aside from Nuezil, the only Falcons reserve to make a start last season was swing tackle Storm Norton, who made one start at right tackle and finished the season with a 61.9 PFF grade across 128 snaps. He’s been a decent swing tackle in his career, making 22 starts over the past five seasons, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, but he’s now going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline. If forced into an extended starting role, he could easily struggle.

The rest of the Falcons’ reserve options aren’t any better. The Falcons didn’t add any centers of note this off-season, leaving Jovaughn Gwyn, a 2023 7th round pick who has never played an offensive snap in his career, as the likely backup center. At guard, their best option is likely Elijah Wilkinson, who made 45 starts in the six seasons prior to only playing one snap as a reserve last season. He had some decent years in that stretch, but was also very inconsistent and now heads into his age 30 season. The Falcons still have a strong starting offensive line, but they didn’t replace Drew Dalman, both of their starting tackles are on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is suspect.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Falcons got good play out of their top-2 wide receivers as well. Drake London led the team with a 100/1271/9 slash line and 2.32 yards per route run. London had never surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in his career prior to last season, but the former 8th overall pick showed potential with yards per route run averages of 2.07 and 1.87 in his first two seasons in the league and went into his third season in the league in 2024 with an upgrade at quarterback, so a breakout statistical year wasn’t really a surprise. He should have another similar season in 2025, if not even better, still only going into his age 24 season.

Darnell Mooney having a solid year as the #2 receiver was a little bit more of a surprise. Mooney had only averaged 1.35 yards per route run and a 53/648/3 slash line per season in four seasons in Chicago, where the 2020 5th round pick started his career before signing in Atlanta last off-season. In his first season in Atlanta, he finished with a 64/992/5 slash line and a career high 1.88 yards per route run average, benefitting significantly from being on a better passing offense in Atlanta than in Chicago. It’s possible he is just as good in 2025, only in his age 28 season, but it’s also possible he could decline a little bit after a career best yards per route run average last season.

Third receiver Ray-Ray McCloud also had a career best year in 2024, finishing with a 62/686/1 slash line, after totaling just 768 receiving yards in six seasons in the league prior to 2024. That was mostly just due to getting more opportunity in Atlanta than he ever had before, due to the Falcons’ lack of wide receiver depth. His 1.25 yards per route run average in 2024 was mediocre and only a slight increase over his career 1.08 yards per route run average. McCloud is still relatively young in his age 29 season, but even if he repeats last year’s career best year, he is still an underwhelming #3 receiver. The Falcons don’t have a better option though, with the alternatives being 2024 6th round pick Casey Washington, who only played 9 snaps as a rookie, and KhaDarel Hodge, a career backup heading into his age 30 season with a maximum of 14 catches in a season in his career and a career 1.27 yards per route run average.

The disappointment of this receiving corps last season was tight end Kyle Pitts. Pitts has been a disappointment since his rookie season, when the 2021 4th overall pick looked like a future star with a 68/1026/1 slash line, a 2.02 yards per route run average, and a 80.3 PFF grade. Since then, he has seen his yards per route run average drop to 1.69, 1.43, and 1.33 over the past three seasons respectively, while his PFF grade has dropped to 73.3, 68.1, and 59.6, as he seemingly gets worse every season, even with last year being the best passing offense has has ever played on. Pitts is still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s possible he starts to turn it around in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Pitts is at least locked into the primary receiving tight end role, without the Falcons having another good option, though that doesn’t guarantee he will have a big role in the passing game, even with the Falcons’ lack of depth at wide receiver. Pitts will likely again be backed up by Charlie Woerner, who has a career 0.54 yards per route run average, but is at least a decent blocker. This receiving corps overall looks identical to last year, when they were a talented, but top heavy group.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

If the Falcons can get even slightly better quarterback play this season, their offense has a lot of potential, given the amount of talent they have around the quarterback, but whether or not this team can make the post-season in 2025 is largely dependent on whether or not their defense improves after struggling last season. To try to improve on this side of the ball, the Falcons aggressively addressed a need at edge defender, where only one player finished with a pressure rate higher than 10% last season.

The Falcons used their own first round pick on Georgia’s Jalon Walker and then traded another future first round pick to move back up into the first round to select Tennessee’s James Pearce, giving them a raw, but high upside duo. The Falcons also added veteran Leonard Floyd, although he is not as good as his 8.5 sack total last season would suggest, as he finished with a 53.5 PFF grade across 604 snaps. Floyd started his season with seven straight seasons above 60 on PFF, but he has fallen below 60 in back-to-back seasons now and will be in his age 33 season in 2025, so he is likely to continue struggling.

Arnold Ebiketie was their best edge defender last season and will continue playing a role, after a 68.2 PFF grade across 543 snaps and a 11.6% pressure rate last season. A 2022 2nd round pick, Ebiketie also had PFF grades of 64.5 and 61.4 across snap counts of 516 and 385 respectively in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, while totaling a 11.7% pressure rate in those two seasons combined. Ebiketie is now in his age 26 season and should remain at least a solid rotational player.

The Falcons also have a pair of recent third round picks as options, 2022 3rd rounder DeAngelo Malone and 2024 3rd rounder Bralen Trice, but Malone has struggled across just 312 career snaps in three seasons in the league, while Trice missed his entire rookie season with injury and is an unproven player coming off of a serious injury. This edge defender group is likely better than last season’s by default, but they would need one or both of their first round edge defenders to be ahead of schedule in their development for this to be more than a decent group in 2025.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Falcons got better play at the interior defender position last season than at the edge defender position, but the problem was their top-2 players David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett were going into their age 33 and age 32 seasons respectively in 2025. The Falcons let go of Jarrett this off-season, after a 62.1 PFF grade across 744 snaps last season, while Onyemata returns after a 66.2 PFF grade across 567 snaps last season. Onyemata has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of the past eight seasons, including five seasons above 70, but his best seasons are probably behind him at this point and he could decline further in 2025. Most notably, Onyemata had just a 61.3 PFF grade as a pass rusher with just a 6.1% pressure rate last season, both the lowest since his rookie season in 2016.

To try to replace Jarrett, the Falcons signed Morgan Fox in free agency, but he’s also getting up there in age, heading into his age 31 season, and he’s not nearly as accomplished as Jarrett or Onyemata. He’s been an above average pass rusher throughout his career, with 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 120 career games, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in eight straight seasons and saw his pressure rate decline to 7.6% in 2025. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued declining in 2025 and, like Onyemata, his best days are probably behind him at this point.

The best option the Falcons have to replace Jarrett is probably Ruke Orhorhoro, a 2024 2nd round pick who was drafted with this situation in mind. Orhorhoro was limited to 147 snaps in 8 games as a rookie due to injury and was underwhelming when on the field as well, with just a 56.2 PFF grade, but he still has a high upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a big step forward in his second season in the league, especially if he is healthier. That’s not a guarantee, but Orhorhoro still profiles as a future starter long-term.

The Falcons also have Zach Harrison, Ta’Quon Graham, and Kentavius Street, who played snap counts of 272, 193, and 280 last season and were solid with PFF grades of 67.2, 63.9, and 61.5 respectively. It’s very possible some or all of them will see higher snap counts in 2025. Harrison seems like the most promising of them, as he is a 2023 3rd round pick who also showed promise with a 63.0 PFF grade across 343 snaps as a rookie. Graham, a 2021 5th round pick, has been about a league average rotational player over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 68.5 and 59.1 on snap counts of 471 and 364 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before being limited to 10 games by injury last season. He might not have a bigger snap count on a per game basis in 2025, but his total snap count should be higher just based on the fact that he is likely to play more games. 

Kentavius Street, meanwhile, is the least promising of the three reserve options, as last season was his first season in seven seasons in the league in which he finished above 60 on PFF. The Falcons lost Grady Jarrett this off-season, David Onyemata is another year older, and their only free agent addition Morgan Fox is also on the wrong side of 30, but the Falcons do at least have a pair of promising young interior defenders in Ruke Orhorhoro and Zach Harrison who could take a step forward in bigger roles in 2025.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Falcons had a solid linebacking corps last season, led by Kaden Elliss, who had a 71.1 PFF grade across 1,097 snaps, particularly excelling as a blitzer, with a team leading 12 quarterback hits and a 27.6% pressure rate on 156 blitzes. That’s nothing new for Elliss, who had PFF grades of 81.5 and 75.4 on snap counts of 632 and 1,082 respectively in 2022 and 2023, while achieving pressure rates of 19.4% and 25.7% respectively on 103 blitzes and 101 blitzes respectively. Elliss is now in his age 30 season, so he could start declining this season, but he’s more likely than not to remain at least a solid starter.

At the other linebacker spot, Nate Landman and Troy Andersen split snaps last season. Landman was the better of the two with a 65.7 PFF grade, especially excelling as a run defender, but he wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by Divine Deablo, who will compete for playing time with Andersen. Deablo is likely to be a downgrade from Landman, as he was about a replacement level linebacker throughout his first four seasons in the league with the Raiders, with PFF grades of 63.2, 58.4, 60.7, and 56.8 across snap counts of 297, 463, 771, and 689 respectively. 

Deablo might still be a better option than Andersen though, as Andersen has PFF grades of 40.2, 50.6, and 60.4 in three seasons in the league. He’s also missed 25 of 34 games over the past two seasons combined. Now going into his age 26 season, he is running out of time to make good on the upside he entered the league with, but he did at least have a career best year in 2024, albeit across just 287 snaps in seven games. The Falcons also have JD Betrand, but the 2024 5th round pick struggled mightily with a 49.8 PFF grade across 157 snaps as a rookie. The Falcons have one good linebacker, but the rest of this group is questionable and they will likely miss free agent departure Nate Landman.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Falcons’ best defensive player last season was safety Jessie Bates, who had a 80.2 PFF grade across 1,095 snaps. That season didn’t come out of nowhere, as he also had PFF grades of 79.9, 90.1, 76.8, and 90.6 respectively in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 respectively, but he has been a bit inconsistent in his career, with PFF grades of 61.2 and 56.1 in 2019 and 2021 respectively. The good news is he’s now coming off three straight strong seasons, so he’s in the most consistently dominant stretch of his career, and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, so he could easily have another dominant season in 2025. He’s also been very durable in his career, missing just three games in seven seasons in the league.

Justin Simmons wasn’t nearly as good at the other safety spot last season, with a 59.9 PFF grade across 1,017 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season. In his absence, the Falcons added Jordan Fuller to replace him. Fuller was a solid starter early in his career with the Rams, with PFF grades of 63.6, 74.3, and 66.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, with a lost year due to injury in between, but he fell to a 53.8 PFF grade across 574 snaps last season. He’s still only in his age 27 season though, so he could easily bounce back in 2025. If he continues struggling, the Falcons best alternatives are 3rd round rookie Xavier Watts and 2023 7th round pick DeMarcco Hellams, who showed some potential with a 65.2 PFF grade across 370 snaps as a rookie, before missing all of 2024 with injury.

At cornerback, the Falcons bring back their top-4 players from a year ago. AJ Terrell has been their #1 cornerback for years. A first round pick in 2020, Terrell has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (78 starts), including two seasons over 70, maxing out at 82.6 in 2021 and posting a 68.5 PFF grade in 2024. Still in his prime in his age 27 season, he should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Dee Alford and Mike Hughes finished second and third among Falcons cornerbacks in snaps played last season with 724 and 720. Alford, a 2022 undrafted free agent, had PFF grades of 64.8 and 70.0 across snap counts of 246 and 571 in his first two seasons in the league, but he was not as good across a career high in snaps last season, finishing with a 58.2 PFF grade. He was actually starting to cede snaps down the stretch to 2023 4th round pick Clark Phillips, who was impressive with a 76.5 PFF grade across 409 snaps. Phillips is still unproven, finishing his rookie season with a 59.0 PFF grade across 414 snaps, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued developing into a solid starter.

If Phillips can’t beat out Alford for a starting job, he could beat out Hughes. Hughes had a 71.9 PFF grade last season, but he has been pretty inconsistent throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league. Hughes was a first round pick in 2018, but he hasn’t developed into a consistent starter and is now in his age 28 season, so he is probably who he is at this stage of his career. It seems more likely that he will regress than repeat last season’s impressive performance. Alford, Phillips, and Hughes will compete for two starting roles, with fourth round rookie Billy Bowman playing a deep reserve role behind them. The Falcons’ secondary is the strength of their defense.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo used to be one of the best kickers in the league, accumulating positive points above average in four straight seasons from 2019-2022, totaling 24.58 points above average over that stretch, but he fell to 0.03 points below average in 2023 and then even further to 8.32 points below average in 2024. Koo is now going into his age 31 season, which isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, but it makes it less likely he will bounce back to his prime form after back-to-back down seasons. I would expect him to be better than he was in his career worst 2024 season though.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Falcons were slightly better than their final record of 8-9 last season, posting slightly above average marks in yards per play differential (+0.29) and yards per play differential (+0.19%). In 2025, they could get better quarterback play and their defense could be slightly better, so they should be in contention for a playoff spot, but they should have more injuries than a year ago (4th most adjusted games lost to injury) and I am not sure if they are one of the top-7 teams in the NFC.

Update: The loss of right tackle Kaleb McGary for the season due to injury is a blow to the Falcons’ already slim playoff chances.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South