Quarterback

The Raiders have been one of the least successful franchises in the league over the past couple decades, with just two winning seasons out of the last 22 and no playoff victories over that time span. This off-season, the Raiders tried an aggressive win now approach, perhaps in an attempt for some relevance, even though they were not close to being in contention, finishing the 2024 season with a 4-13 record, while ranking 25th in yards per play differential and 23rd in first down rate differential. 

The Raiders first started by hiring Pete Carroll as their head coach, opting to go with the experienced, proven, but soon-to-be-74-year-old Carroll rather than a young, up and coming coach who could be around for the long haul. Perhaps motivated by Carroll not wanting to wait around through a slower build, the Raiders then traded a third round pick for Geno Smith, Carroll’s former quarterback with the Seahawks, who was one of the best quarterbacks available this off-season, but is heading into his age 35 season and needed a 2-year, 75 million dollar extension to be kept past this season. The Raiders then used their first round pick, 6th overall, on running back Ashton Jeanty, who has the talent to make the most immediate impact of any rookie this year, but plays a position with a significantly shorter career span than most, making his selection another short-term, win now move.

Smith obviously elevates the Raiders’ floor at the quarterback position, completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 35 interceptions in 49 starts over the past three seasons, as opposed to the 64.6% completion, 6.48 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions that Raiders quarterback combined to throw for last season, but, given his age, he will likely decline in the next few years and, even if he doesn’t, he isn’t the type of quarterback who can lead a team on a deep playoff run without a really talented roster around him, a talented roster that gets a lot more difficult to build when you have a quarterback making as much annually as Smith does. The only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers and Smith’s cap hit is projected to be above that 11% cutoff in two of the next three seasons.

Smith will be backed up by Aidan O’Connell, who was probably the most successful of the three quarterbacks who started for the Raiders last season, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 starts. A 4th round pick in 2023, O’Connell also made 10 starts as a rookie and completed 62.1% of his passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He likely will never develop into a starting caliber quarterback, but he could prove to be a useful backup long-term. The Raiders also added long-term competition for him by taking Cam Miller in the 6th round, but he is likely going to be the third quarterback in his first season in the league. This Raiders’ quarterback room is better than a year ago, but it’s still probably about average.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Raiders used their 6th overall pick on running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is one of the best running back prospects of the past decade and plays a position that frequently comes into the NFL and makes a big impact right away. The downside is he plays a position that is usually pretty easy to find, either through cheap free agent signings or mid-round draft picks, and he plays a position with a high injury risk and a short long-term career span, but the Raiders liked Jeanty’s ability to impact this offense immediately so much that they were willing to overlook the downsides of taking a running back early.

Jeanty does fill a massive position of need for the Raiders, as they ranked 31st in carries, 32nd in rushing yards, and 32nd in yards per carry last season. They added Raheem Mostert earlier in the off-season, but he’s going into his age 33 season and is a backup at this stage of his career. Mostert had averaged 5.21 yards per carry in his previous six seasons prior to last season, but that came on just 111 carries per season, with 34 games missed due to injury over that stretch, and last season his yards per carry average fell all the way to 3.27 across 85 carries, so he is likely nearing the end of his line.

Mostert will compete with top holdover Sincere McCormick for the #2 running back job. McCormick went undrafted in 2022 and never had a carry until week 12 of last season, but he showed some potential in a very limited sample size with a 4.69 YPC average across 39 carries. Whoever wins the backup job will likely only see a few carries here and there with Jeanty as the clear lead back and, if Jeanty misses time with injury, any of the backups would probably be part of a timeshare in his absence.

The Raiders also still have Zamir White, who started the season as the lead back last season, but struggled mightily with a 2.82 YPC average and a league worst 26.2% carry success rate last season, leading to him being benched down the stretch and only finishing with 65 carries. The 2022 4th round pick showed some promise with 4.31 YPC across 121 carries in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, but he couldn’t translate that into a larger role. He may find himself as part of a committee if Jeanty misses time, but he is probably behind both McCormick and Mostert on the depth chart as of this writing. The Raiders also have 2024 6th round pick Dylan Laube, but he didn’t play a snap as a rookie, even with the Raiders’ lack of other good options, which isn’t a good sign for him long-term.

One concern with this backfield is the lack of a clear passing down back. Jeanty wasn’t used in the passing game much at the collegiate level and, given how much of a workload he figures to get on early downs, having another back come in for him in obvious passing situations to give him a rest makes sense, but Mostert has a career 0.90 yards per route run average, White has a career 0.81 yards per route run average, and, while McCormick has a career 1.16 yards per route run average, that is across just 25 routes. Mostert will probably get the first crack at the passing down role due to experience, but Jeanty will probably stay on the field for a fair share of passing downs as well and the Raiders may opt to just not use running backs heavily in the passing game. Ashton Jeanty significantly upgrades this backfield, but their lack of depth behind him, particularly pass catching depth, is a bit of a concern.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Despite the Raiders’ issues at quarterback last season, they did have a pair of 1000+ yard receivers, one of just two teams in the league with a pair of 1000+ yard receivers. That was in large part due to the lack of depth the Raiders had in terms of pass catchers, as tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers accounted for 47.6% of the team’s targets. The rest of the Raiders ‘ receiving corps isn’t significantly improved this season, so Bowers and Meyers should continue having huge target shares, this time with an improved passer under center.

Last season was Meyers first 1000+ year season of his 6-year career (87/1027/4), but his 1.76 yards per route run average was in line with his career 1.72 yards per route run average and he’s had some solid seasons in the past, finishing with between 729 and 866 receiving yards in each of the four seasons prior to last season. Given his projected high target share and his improved quarterback situation, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Meyers set a new career high in receiving yardage this season. 

Bowers, meanwhile, was the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and entered the league as one of the best receiving tight end prospects in recent memory, which he backed up as a rookie with a 112/1194/5 slash line and 2.02 yards per route run. Another year more experienced, with an upgrade under center, and again projected for a huge target share, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bowers exceed last season’s numbers either.

The Raiders did attempt to improve their receiving corps by using 2nd, 4th, and 6th round picks on wide receivers Jack Bech, Dont’e Thornton, and Tommy Mellott, though it is unclear if any of them will be able to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. Bech has the best chance to do so, given that he was drafted the highest, and will almost definitely be a starter, but he will be a distant third in the target pecking order at best. The Raiders also added Collin Johnson this off-season, but he has just 31 catches in 38 career games with a career 1.20 yards per route run average.

Tre Tucker was third on the team with 81 targets last season, but he managed just a 47/539/3 slash line with 0.84 yards per route run. The 2023 3rd round pick showed some promise in a limited role as a rookie with 1.48 yards per route run, but couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He may still have some untapped upside, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the rookie Bech ended up out-producing him in 2025, making Bech the nominal #2 receiver.

Backup tight end Michael Mayer will probably continue having at least somewhat of a role, after receiving 32 targets last season, but he only turned that into a 21/156/0 slash line, with 0.67 yards per route run. Mayer was a 2023 2nd round pick who showed some promise as a rookie, with a 1.11 yards per route run average, so he could be better in 2025, but he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot yet and might never do so. The Raiders have a pair of talented pass catchers, but this is a very top heavy position group.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Raiders’ offensive line mostly stays the same as last season, when they were a decent unit, ranking 14th in pass block grade and 20th in run block grade on PFF. The one major change is their primary starting center, Andre James, is no longer with the team, but he missed 6 starts last season and was their worst regular starter with a 55.6 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed. Jackson Powers-Johnson, who moved from guard to center when James was out last season, will be the full-time center this season, which is a better spot for him because that was his collegiate position. Powers-Johnson, a 2024 2nd round pick, had a decent rookie year with a 63.9 PFF grade in 14 starts and, now back at his natural position, he has a good chance to take a step forward in his second season in the league, potentially a big step forward.

When Powers-Johnson moved to center last season, Jordan Meredith took his place at guard. Meredith went undrafted in 2020 and only played 134 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, but he played surprisingly very well for the Raiders last season in eight starts, with a 80.8 PFF grade. It came in a small sample size and there is a good chance he regresses and cannot translate that to a season-long role, but he also still has a good chance to be at least a capable starter at worst.

Dylan Parham remains as the other guard. A 2022 3rd round pick, Parham also had a surprisingly good season in 2024, with a 74.3 PFF grade in 15 starts, after PFF grades of 61.9 and 60.4 in his first two seasons in the league (14 starts). His 2024 season wasn’t nearly as surprising as Meredith’s though, as he was a relatively high draft pick who saw significant action in his first two seasons in the league, so he has a better chance of continuing to play at the same level in 2025 than Meredith does.

At tackle, Kolton Miller and DJ Glaze remain as the starters on the left and right sides respectively. Miller was the Raiders’ best offensive lineman last season and has been for several years. The 2018 1st round pick took a couple years to develop, but he has received PFF grades of 70 or higher in five straight seasons, with four straight seasons over 80, including a 80.6 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2024. Miller is now heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but he’s starting from such a big base point that, even if he declines somewhat in 2025, he would still likely remain an at least an above average starting option. Glaze, meanwhile, was a 2024 3rd round pick who had a decent 66.1 PFF grade in 14 starts as a rookie and could take a step forward in his second season in the league.

To improve their depth, the Raiders used a pair of third round picks on offensive linemen, taking Charles Grant and Caleb Rogers. Grant will compete for the swing tackle job with Thayer Munford, a 2022 7th round pick who had made 18 starts in three seasons in the league, with mixed results, as he’s had PFF grades of 63.2, 74.1, and 45.9. Rogers, meanwhile, will probably be the primary backup center, as the Raiders don’t have another player aside from the starter Jackson Powers-Johnson who has ever played a snap at center in the NFL. 

Rogers could also play guard, but at guard he would have to compete with another off-season addition, veteran Alex Cappa. Cappa signed a 2-year, 11.02 million dollar deal and has made 96 starts over the past six seasons, so he would probably start at guard ahead of Rogers if need be, but Cappa fell to a 50.5 PFF grade across 17 starts last season, after five straight seasons above 60 on PFF prior to last season, so there is a good reason he had to settle for being a backup this off-season. This is a solid offensive line overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Raiders were actually pretty solid on defense last season, ranking 14th in yards per play allowed and 7th in first down rate allowed, but they didn’t bring back 6 of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last season and, as a result, could struggle to repeat last season’s performance. If there is one reason to be optimistic about this defense it’s the fact that they should be healthier, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury on defense of any team in the league last season.

The edge defender position was probably hardest hit. Malcolm Koonce, expected to be a starter, missed the entire season, while fellow starter and top edge defender Maxx Crosby missed five games and seemed to be limited even when on the field. Koonce, a 2021 3rd round pick, had a mini breakout season in 2023 with a 81.3 PFF grade across 501 snaps, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher with 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate. He’s a complete one-year wonder, only playing 116 snaps in his first two seasons in the league before his breakout 2023 campaign, and, now coming off of a significant injury complicates his projection further, but he’s still young in his age 27 season and, even if he can’t repeat his 2023 campaign in 2025, he still has a good chance to be an above average player.

Crosby, meanwhile, is one of the best and most durable edge defenders in the league when healthy. In five seasons in the league prior to last season, Crosby never missed a game, while ranking 5th, 4th, 1st, and 1st in among edge defenders in snaps played in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively and ranking 2nd, 4th, and 4th among edge defenders in PFF grade in 2021, 2022, and 2023, exceeding 90 on PFF in all three seasons and totaling 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 51 games over that stretch. In 2024, he still played a high snap count for the amount of games he played (766), but he fell to a 74.3 PFF grade, with 7.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. Still in his age 28 season, Crosby has obvious bounce back potential in 2025 if he can stay healthy, which his history suggests he can.

With Koonce missing the season and Crosby missing time as well, 2023 7th overall pick Tyree Wilson stepped up, with a 66.7 PFF grade across 524 snaps, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate. That might not seem like much, especially given how highly Wilson was drafted, but Wilson struggled mightily with a 47.1 PFF grade across 493 snaps as a rookie, so last season was a big step forward for him. He has always had a huge upside and has likely permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a solid rotational player, with the upside for more. He will likely split snaps with Koonce, while Crosby continues rarely coming off the field. 

Charles Snowden (405 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (508 snaps) also had decent seasons as rotational players last season, with PFF grades of 60.5 and 63.0 respectively. Chaisson is no longer with the team, but Snowden remains. He is a 2021 undrafted free agent who only played 6 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season, but he should be a decent deep reserve at the very least, which is all the Raiders should need him for as long as they stay relatively healthy at this position this season. At full strength, this looks like one of the best edge defender groups in the NFL.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Raiders should also get a healthier season out of Christian Wilkins, who was limited to just 246 snaps in 5 games by injury. In his absence, none of the Raiders’ other interior defenders finished above 60 on PFF. Wilkins is now going into his age 30 season and recovery reportedly has not gone as smoothly as the Raiders would have liked, but he still has a chance to return in time for the 2025 season and, even if he’s not quite at his best, he should be a welcome re-addition. A first round pick in 2019, Wilkins has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league and has finished above 70 in four straight seasons, including a 74.8 PFF grade before going down last season. 

Adam Butler and Jonah Laulu are the Raiders’ top returning interior defenders in terms of snaps played, with 856 and 474 respectively, and both should continue having roles in 2025. Butler was a decent pass rusher last season, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 6.0% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run. That’s largely in line with how he’s played throughout his eight seasons in the league, as he has 27 sacks, 24 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate in 114 career games, but has only finished above 60 against the run once. Now going into his age 31 season, Butler’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily decline from an already pretty low base point.

Laulu, meanwhile, is a 2024 7th round pick who didn’t prove he shouldn’t have fallen that far in the draft as a rookie. He will likely continue struggling in 2025. The Raiders also added veteran Leki Fotu through free agency and used 4th and 6th round picks on Tonka Hemingway and JJ Pegues, but all of them are underwhelming options. Hemingway and Pegues were not highly drafted prospects, while Fotu has finished below 50 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, on an average of just 299 snaps per season. Outside of Christian Wilkins, who is turning 30 and coming off of a major injury, the Raiders are very thin at the interior defender position.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Raiders’ top-2 linebackers from a year ago, Robert Spillane (1,093 snaps) and Divine Deablo (689 snaps) are no longer with the team, and their replacements, Devin White, Elandon Roberts, and Jaylon Smith, are very underwhelming. White was the 5th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and played 973 snaps per season in the first five seasons of his career in Tampa Bay, but he finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons and, after leaving Tampa Bay, he had a hard time finding another team willing to give him significant playing time, as he played just 176 snaps in 2024, while spending time with the Eagles and Texans, and he once again finished below 60 on PFF.

Roberts has been a solid run defender in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in six of nine seasons in the league and finishing above 70 in three of nine seasons, including back-to-back seasons in 2023 and 2024, but he has only played 469 snaps per season in his career, with a maximum of 676, he has only finished above 60 in pass defense just once, and now he’s going into his age 31 season. He could remain a solid situational linebacker, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s highly unlikely to be anything more than a situational player.

Smith played at a high level early in his career, but injuries detailed his career. He has just one season above 60 since 2019, while spending time with six different teams over that stretch, and he has played just 25 snaps over the past two seasons, with no snaps played in 2024. Now going into his age 31 season, Smith is highly unlikely to bounce back. The Raiders also have Tommy Eichenberg, a 2024 5th round rookie who struggled mightily on 78 snaps as a rookie, and 7th round rookie Cody Lindenberg, who would likely if he was forced into a significant role as a rookie. This is a very underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Raiders also lost significant players in the secondary this off-season. At cornerback, Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs are gone, replaced by Eric Stokes, a mediocre veteran option, and Darien Porter, a third round rookie. Stokes and Porter will compete for roles with mediocre holdovers Jakorian Bennett, Darnay Holmes, and Decamarion Richardson. Stokes was a first round pick in 2021 and had a solid rookie season, with a 66.3 PFF grade across 934 snaps, but injuries limited him to 587 snaps in 12 games in his next two seasons and, while he played all 17 games last year and had a decent 61.3 PFF grade, he wasn’t a full-time player, only playing 587 snaps. Stokes is still only in his age 26 season and still has theoretical upside, but he’s an underwhelming starting option.

Despite that, Stokes is actually probably the Raiders’ best cornerback. Porter has long-term potential, but might be too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. Decamarion Richardson had a 45.6 PFF grade across 559 snaps as a 4th round rookie last season and, while he could be better in his second season in the league, he has a long way to go to be even an average starter. Jakorian Bennett was a 4th round pick in 2023 and has PFF grades of 42.4 and 58.6 across snap counts of 361 and 459 in two seasons in the league. Darnay Holmes was a 2020 4th round pick and has finished above 60 just once in five seasons in the league, while only playing 421 snaps over the past two seasons combined. This is arguably the worst cornerback group in the NFL.

Things are only marginally better at safety. Trevon Moehrig, who had a 67.5 PFF grade across 1,099 snaps last season, is no longer with the team and, while his replacement Jeremy Chinn had a similar season last season with a 69.0 PFF grade across 1,020 snaps, he has been significantly less consistent in his career than Moehrig, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league. Meanwhile, Isaiah Pola-Mao will remain the other starting safety, even though he struggled with a 54.2 PFF grade across 952 snaps last season, due to the lack of another option. A 2022 undrafted free agent, Pola-Mao only played 211 snaps in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season and is unlikely to be any better in 2025 than he was in 2024.

Other safety options include Thomas Harper, a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 191 snaps as a rookie, Chris Smith, a 2023 5th round pick who has played just 33 snaps in two seasons in the league, and Lonnie Johnson, a veteran going into his age 30 season who has played just 301 snaps total in the last three seasons. Overall, this looks like one of the worst secondaries in the league, with very little redeeming qualities.

Grade: C

Kicker

Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league in recent years. He finished slightly below average by 0.62 points last season, but that came after a four straight year stretch of being above average, accumulating 25.41 points above average over that stretch. Carlson is now heading into his age 30 season, but kickers are often effective into their 30s, so I wouldn’t say he is on the decline. He could easily bounce back from his worst season in years.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Raiders’ offense should be significantly improved by adding Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, but their defense lost a lot this off-season and looks like a below average unit. The Raiders also play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, with each of the other three teams making the post-season last season and looking likely to at least contend for the post-season in 2025, so, even if the Raiders do take a big step forward this season, they are still probably the worst team in their division.

Update: After some reanalysis on how much of an immediate impact rookies at different positions make, I have moved my win total for the Raiders up.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC West