Quarterback

The Bills went 13-3 in meaningful regular season games last year, locking up the #2 seed before week 18 and resting starters in the final week of the season as a result. However, there are some reasons to expect them to regress in terms of win total in 2025. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Bills were only slightly above average at +1.55% and +0.50 respectively, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. The reason the Bills were able to win significantly more games than those numbers would suggest is their turnover margin, which led the league at +24, but turnover margin has very little year-to-year correlation. 

The Bills especially excelled in fumble margin at +14, which has no year-to-year correlation, nor does their league leading fumble recovery percentage. In fact, just one year prior in 2023, the Bills were just +2 in turnover margin and +2 in fumble margin. For the Bills to continue winning at the same rate they won at last season, they will have to elevate their overall level of play, rather than just relying on turnovers, and I don’t think they improved enough this off-season for that to happen. This isn’t to say they will become a bad team or even miss the playoffs, but I would expect their win total to come down, perhaps significantly.

The Bills’ offense was by far their better side of the ball last season, ranking 4th in first down rate and 6th in yards per play, and I expect that to continue in 2025. At quarterback, the Bills have the reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league for several years. Since 2020, he has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 165 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions through the air, with 3,001 yards and 48 touchdowns on 561 carries (5.35 YPC) on the ground, while making every start. 

However, last season was the best season of Allen’s career and he might not be able to be quite as good this season, particularly in terms of interception rate, as Allen threw an interception on just 1.2% of his passes last season, as opposed to 2.4% over the previous four seasons. If that interception rate creeps back up and the Bills’ fumble margin normalizes next season, they will have a significant drop off in turnover margin, which seems likely, given how turnover margins typically vary year-to-year.

Allen almost never misses time with injury, with his last game missed coming back in his rookie season in 2018, but he does take more hits than the average quarterback because of how much he takes off and runs with the ball, which could eventually catch up with him. If he happens to miss time this season, Allen would be replaced by backup Mitch Trubisky, who is a decent, but underwhelming backup. Trubisky was once the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he only has a career 86.0 QB rating in 57 starts, which is why he has settled into a backup role, making just seven starts over the past four seasons. He would obviously be a huge downgrade from Allen if he had to step in and play, but the same can be said of any quarterback backing up an elite quarterback like Allen, so that isn’t necessarily a knock on Trubisky as a backup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Bills largely bring back the same supporting cast as last season on offense, with the only significant change being that they didn’t bring back veteran wide receiver Mack Hollins and instead signed Joshua Palmer, but that figures to be an upgrade. Hollins actually led this receiving corps in routes run, but was very inefficient, turning 50 targets into just a 31/378/5 slash line and averaging just 0.92 yards per route run. Palmer has largely been underwhelming in his career, since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, averaging just 1.39 yards per route run, but that average has increased to 1.59 over the past two seasons, he gets an upgrade in quarterback by joining the Bills, he is still only in his age 26 season, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Hollins.

Palmer might not necessarily step right into Hollins’ old role, as some of Hollins’ vacated snaps could go to Khalil Shakir, who was their most effective receiver last season, and Keon Coleman, a 2024 2nd round pick who might have the highest upside of this group. Both Shakir and Coleman were significantly more efficient than Hollins last season and both will probably be more efficient than Palmer this season. Shakir is the Bills’ de facto #1 wide receiver, leading the team in targets (100), catches (76), and receiving yards (821), while averaging 2.15 yards per route run, good for 21st in the NFL among wide receivers. 

Shakir’s performance didn’t come out of nowhere either, as the 2022 5th round had averaged 1.84 yards per route run in 2023. Still only in his age 25 season, Shakir should continue playing at a similar level and, if he sees an uptick in playing time, he could easily exceed last year’s total receiving numbers. Coleman, meanwhile, averaged 1.71 yards per route run last season, turning only 57 targets into a 29/556/4 slash line, despite being considered raw as a draft prospect. He could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league, still only his age 22 season. 

With Shakir, Coleman, and Palmer likely locked in as the Bills’ top-3 receivers, that leaves Curtis Samuel as the #4 receiver at best. Samuel was signed to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal last off-season to potentially play a significant role in this offense, but he only ended up playing 378 snaps and struggled with a 1.11 yards per route run average, down from his career average of 1.35. Only in his age 29 season, Samuel should have some bounce back potential in 2025, but he would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role. He’s only still on the team because most of his salary is guaranteed.

Samuel could also face competition for the top reserve role from free agent addition Elijah Moore. Moore only signed for 1-year, 2.5 million and has only averaged 1.10 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but he has never had a good quarterback and is still only in his age 25 season, so he comes with some upside. However, like Samuel, he will need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid also had a solid 1.62 yards per route run last season, though he missed four games due to injury and split snaps with Dawson Knox, who played 616 snaps in 16 games, as compared to 469 snaps in 13 games for Kincaid. That limited Kincaid to just a 44/448/2 slash line overall. A first round pick in 2023, Kincaid had a lower yards per route run average as a rookie at 1.46, but he finished with a 73/673/2 slash line because he was healthier, while Knox missed four games due to injury. 

Knox only averaged 1.04 yards per route run last season and has only averaged 1.08 yards per route run in his career, so the Bills may opt to start giving Kincaid a bigger role at Knox’s expense in 2025, giving Kincaid significant production upside going into his third season in the league, but it’s also possible Knox continues cutting into his playing time. This is overall a deep receiving corps, even if they don’t have a true #1 receiver.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One potential concern for this offense in 2025 is that they are unlikely to stay as healthy as they did last season, when they had the third fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league. Their offensive line was their healthiest unit, as their starting five offensive linemen missed just one game between them, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2025. Another potential concern for this offensive line is the age of left tackle Dion Dawkins, who has been a consistently above average player since his rookie season in 2017, never receiving a PFF grade lower than 69.9, with a 72.9 PFF grade in 2024, but who is now going into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season as a result. 

Right tackle Spencer Brown was their highest graded offensive lineman last season, slightly ahead of Dawkins, finishing with a 73.6 PFF grade. That was a career best grade for him, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2021 3rd round pick had a 68.1 PFF grade in 2023. Brown could regress somewhat from his career best 2024 season, but he should still remain an above average starter, very much in his prime in his age 27 season. 

The Bills’ worst offensive lineman last season was right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, who had a 54.9 PFF grade. Torrence, a 2023 2nd round pick, also struggled as a rookie with a 56.0 PFF grade. He came into the league with a high upside and it’s possible he takes a step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he doesn’t, he figures to remain in his starting role because the Bills don’t have a better option, with their best alternative being free agent addition Kendrick Green, a 2021 3rd round pick who has made 19 starts in four seasons in the league and has never finished above 60 on PFF over the course of a full season.

Opposite Torrence at left guard, the Bills will once again have David Edwards, who has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career in which he has been the primary starter, including a 63.8 PFF grade in 2024. He figures to have a similar season again in 2025. Rounding out the offensive line at center is Connor McGovern, who had a 69.6 PFF grade last season, but that was a career best in six seasons in the league for the 2019 3rd round pick, who has only finished above 60 on PFF in three of those seasons. He could remain a capable starter, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat last season’s career best year.

The Bills also frequently used six offensive linemen together last season, move than any other team in the league, as their 6th offensive lineman Alec Anderson played 223 snaps in 16 meaningful games. Anderson is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had never played a snap in his career prior to last season, but he excelled as an extra offensive lineman, with a 72.8 PFF grade. He didn’t play more than 32 snaps in any meaningful game last season, but he does have the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and could easily find himself in a starting role at some point this season if and when injuries strike. That would be a concern though, as not only could Anderson struggle as a regular starting offensive lineman, but they would also have to find a replacement for Anderson as the 6th offensive lineman in that scenario This is a solid offensive line, but they are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Bills also got a productive year out of lead back James Cook, who took 207 carries for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns (4.87 YPC), while ranking 10th in the NFL among running backs in carry success rate at 53.1%. Cook benefited significantly from Josh Allen being lined up in the backfield with him though, as defenses had to worry about Allen taking off and running with the ball himself. In terms of elusive rating, which takes into account how often a running back breaks tackles and how many yards he gets after contact, Cook was at just 54.5, 33rd among 57 eligible running backs. This has been a trend for Cook, who has averaged 4.95 yards per carry on 533 carries in three seasons in the league, but has just a career 53.2 elusive rating, with 2.99 yards per carry after contact and a 17.4% missed tackle rate.

Cook now is heading into the final year of his rookie deal and wants a top of the market contract, which the Bills seem hesitant to give him, likely realizing how much of his success is due to the talent around him. Cook could potentially hold out for an extended period of time in search of this new deal and there is a history of running backs underperforming after extended holdouts, but there is very little incentive for Cook to actually miss games due to his holdout. One way or another, he figures to return as the Bills’ feature back for at least one more season, in a similar role to last season. 

Cook also contributes in the passing game, with a 1.15 yards per route run average in 2024 and a career 1.34 yards per route run average. When he needs a break on passing downs, the Bills typically bring in Ty Johnson, who only played 315 snaps last season, but 237 of them came on passing downs, almost the same amount as Cook, who played 248 passing down snaps. In his career, Johnson has averaged 1.17 yards per route run, including 1.54 over the past two seasons since joining the Bills. He’s only had 279 carries in six seasons in the league, including just 41 last season, and his career 4.55 YPC average is largely the result of only getting carries in long yardage situations when the defense is expecting the pass, but he is valuable in the specific role he plays.

The Bills also have Ray Davis, a 2024 4th round pick, as their primary backup on early downs, ranking second on the team with 113 carries last season. He only averaged 3.91 yards per carry on those carries, with a 45.1% carry success rate, but he did exceed Cook in elusive rating (70.9) and he has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league. He didn’t play much in passing situations last season, ranking third on the team among running backs in passing down snaps, but he did show a lot of potential, with 1.87 yards per route run. If Cook isn’t kept beyond this season, it’s possible Davis gets the opportunity to be the starter in 2026 and beyond. This is a deep backfield that fits well together, though a potential holdout by Cook is a concern.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

With the Bills’ offense played at a high level last season and will likely continue doing so in 2025, the Bills’ defense struggled, ranking 25th in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, and, with their turnover margin likely to regress significantly this season, the Bills’ defense could easily get exposed and cost them more games than it did last season if they don’t significantly improve their level of play. Defensive performance tends to be much less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, which is a good thing for this defense as they could easily be better on defense this season by default, but the Bills really didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to improve on defense this off-season.

At the edge defender position, the Bills let go of their top-3 reserves, Dawuane Smoot (322 snaps), Von Miller (279 snaps), and Casey Toohill (249 snaps) and replaced them with veterans Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht and third round pick Landon Jackson, which isn’t necessarily an upgrade. Smoot and Toohill struggled last season, with PFF grades of 57.7 and 51.1, but Von Miller excelled as a situational pass rusher, with a 15.3% pressure rate and a 82.4 PFF grade. 

Miller will mostly directly be replaced by Joey Bosa, another accomplished, but aging pass rusher. Throughout the first eight seasons of Bosa’s career from 2016-2023, the former 3rd overall pick finished above 75 on PFF in every season, with six seasons above 80, while totaling 67 sacks, 83 hits, and a 14.9% pressure rate in 93 games, but durability increasingly became an issue for him, as he missed 38 total games in those eight seasons, including 20 games missed in 2022 and 2023 combined. 

In 2024, Bosa’s injuries seemed to catch up with him. He only missed three games, but he was limited to 32.6 snaps per game and had just a 63.9 PFF grade with just a 10.8% pressure rate, all three of which were the lowest of his career. Bosa is now going into his age 30 season and, while he isn’t totally over the hill and could have some bounce back potential if he stays healthy, his best days are likely to be gone at this point. Even in a limited situational role, he’s unlikely to be as efficient rushing the passer as Miller was last season.

Bosa has the most upside of the reserve options. Hoecht has played 2,008 snaps over the past three seasons, but has been middling at best, with PFF grades of 65.4, 61.7, and 61.3 respectively and a pressure rate of just 10.7% across the three seasons. He could benefit from playing a smaller role in Buffalo, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s also facing a 6-game PED suspension to start the season. In his absence, the Bills may have to rely more on Bosa or on the rookie Jackson, who could be a starter long-term, but who also could be raw as a rookie. The Bills also have 2024 5th round pick Javon Solomon, who flashed potential as a rookie with a 73.1 PFF grade and a 15.7% pressure rate, albeit across just 135 total snaps, and he could be in line for a bigger role in year two.

Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa remain as the starters. Rousseau is by far their best player at the position and arguably is the best player on this entire defense, posting a 83.1 PFF grade last season, his third straight season above 80. In 2022 and 2023, Rousseau’s snap count was limited to 463 and 585 respectively, but that jumped up to 736 in 2024 and he maintained the same level of efficiency. In total, he has 21 sacks, 38 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 45 games over the past three seasons and, still only in his age 25 season, the former first round pick might still have further untapped upside. He should at least repeat his 2024 performance in 2025 and could be even better.

Epenesa, on the other hand, struggled last season, with a 54.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps and just a 5.9% pressure rate. The 2020 2nd round pick has had some better seasons in the past, but he never exceeded 388 snaps played in a season prior to last season and likely needs a reduced role if he wants to have a chance of bouncing back in 2025. That would require one or multiple of their reserves to play more than any of their reserves did last season. 

Bosa has the potential to do so, or even to take over the starting role from Epenesa, while Hoecht could be a slight upgrade by default over Epenesa when he is done with his suspension, and the youngsters Jackson and Solomon have upside as well, but chances are Epenesa will again have to play more than the Bills would like, even if his role is less than it was last season. Greg Rousseau elevates this position group significantly by himself and the rest of the bunch have upside if they can find the right rotation, but there is still some concern with this position group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, Ed Oliver (603 snaps) and DaQuan Jones (547 snaps) were a solid starting duo last season, with PFF grades of 71.0 and 64.6 respectively. Oliver struggled against the run, but excelled as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate, which is largely in line with how he’s played throughout his six seasons in the league, as he’s finished above 60 on PFF as a run defender just once, but has finished above 60 as a pass rusher in all six seasons, with four seasons above 70. In total, he has 27 sacks, 52 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 92 career games. Still in his age 28 season, Oliver should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Jones, on the other hand, has been a consistently well-rounded player in his career, only totaling 16 sacks, 45 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 148 games over the past ten seasons, but finishing above 60 in run defense in all but two of those seasons and finishing above 60 overall in all of those seasons, with six seasons above 70. The problem is he’s now going into his age 34 season and, coming off the 2nd lowest PFF grade of those ten seasons, he could have already started a decline that will further continue into 2025. To prepare for Jones’ getting up there in age, the Bills used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on TJ Sanders and Deone Walker and they used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on DeWayne Carter, but Carter had a 41.4 PFF grade across 315 snaps as a rookie and it’s far from a guarantee that any of those three will ever develop into as good of a player as Jones was in his prime.

The Bills also added veteran Larry Ogunjobi as a free agent to give them additional depth, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, including a 49.4 PFF grade across 495 snaps last season, and now he is going into his age 31 season and also facing a 6-game PED suspension. Most likely, the higher drafted Sanders and the veteran Ogunjobi will be the primary reserves, with the lower drafted Walker and Carter, who struggled as a rookie, as deeper reserves, but Ogunjobi’s suspension will force Walker and/or Carter into bigger roles to start the season. If the aging DaQuan Jones declines significantly, this position group could have a big problem.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Bills have an unsettled group. Matt Milano was once a consistently above average every down linebacker, receiving PFF grades of 70.1 and 73.7 on snap counts of 915 and 946 as recently as 2021 and 2022, but injuries have limited him to 394 snaps in nine games over the past two seasons and he’s now missed significant time with injury in three of the past five seasons. His injuries seemed to take a toll on him upon his return last season, as he struggled mightily with a 48.0 PFF grade across 183 snaps in four games.

Milano could have some bounce back potential in 2025 if he’s healthy, but he’s now in his age 30 season, so it seems likely that his best days are behind him at this point. Because of that, the Bills made him take a pay cut from the 20 million he was owed over the next two seasons to a 1-year, 6.3 million dollar deal. His salary still suggests the Bills view him as a starter, but how much he’ll be able to play and how effective he will be remain up in the air.

In Milano’s absence last season, Terrel Bernard (750 snaps) and Dorian Williams (651 snaps) were their top-2 linebackers. Bernard struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade, but he was better in 2023 when he had a 64.0 PFF grade across 999 snaps, so the 2022 3rd round pick could have some bounce back potential in 2025. Williams, on the other hand, was the opposite, as the 2023 3rd round pick had a 55.2 PFF grade across 211 snaps as a rookie, but improved to a 61.6 PFF grade in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2024. Both players have decent upsides, but both are underwhelming starting options. They will likely compete for one starting role opposite Milano, with the other being the top reserve and a situational option. This group has upside overall, but also significant downside in a worst case scenario.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Other than maybe Greg Rousseau, the Bills’ best defensive player last season was cornerback Christian Benford, who ranked 4th among cornerbacks with an 82.6 PFF grade. That wasn’t out of character for Benford either, as he had an 82.2 PFF grade in 2023 as well. Benford was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but he has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and he is only going into his age 25 season, so he should remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league for the foreseeable future.

The Bills did not get as good of play from their other outside cornerback last season though, as Rasul Douglas finished with a 59.2 PFF grade and was subsequently let go this off-season. To replace him, the Bills used their first round pick on Nate Hairston, who is raw, but has a high upside and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Douglas. He could face competition for his starting job from Tre’Davious White, a former first round pick of the Bills, who used to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league from 2017-2020

That was before he suffered a torn ACL and a torn achilles in a two-year span from 2021-2023 though, which led to him playing just 892 snaps over the past three seasons combined. White was released by the Bills last off-season and spent 2024 with the Rams and Ravens, with whom he combined for a 52.9 PFF grade across 403 snaps. That was only the first season of his career below 60 on PFF, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and it’s highly unlikely he will ever come close to regaining his pre-injury form. He’s not a bad insurance option to have, but the Bills are definitely hoping Hairston can win the job and keep White as a reserve.

Taron Johnson remains as the slot cornerback. He finished last season with a 65.0 PFF grade across 646 snaps in 12 games, with five games missed due to injury. That’s largely in line with how he’s played throughout his 7-year career, as he’s finished in the 60s in six of those seven seasons. The one exception was a 80.2 PFF grade in 2023, but it’s likely that will prove to be a fluke when all is said and done. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect Johnson to remain a solid, but unspectacular solid cornerback in 2025.

At safety, the Bills bring back their top-4 safeties from a year ago in terms of snaps played, but none of them were better than a replacement level player, so this position group looks unsettled going into 2025. Damar Hamlin led the group with 875 snaps played, but had just a 60.2 PFF grade, which is in line with how he played in the only other season in his career in which he saw significant action, as he had a 61.4 PFF grade across 845 snaps in 2022. If he remains a starter in 2025, he will likely remain a replacement level player.

Taylor Rapp was the other starter last season, but he was even worse, with a 59.0 PFF grade across 779 snaps. He’s had better years in the past, as the 2019 2nd round pick finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, including a career best 76.2 PFF grade across 976 snaps in 2022, but he’s now finished below 60 in two straight seasons, so the odds are decreasing that he ever returns to his old form. He’s still only in his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he could continue struggling.

Cam Lewis was the highest graded of the bunch last season, but even he only had a 61.4 PFF grade and that came across just 597 snaps. The 2019 undrafted free agent has shown some potential in his career, but he only played 380 snaps in five seasons in the league prior to last season and is a projection to an every down role, so he’s best as a situational reserve. Cole Bishop, meanwhile, might have the highest upside of the bunch, but the 2024 2nd round pick struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade across 358 snaps last season and, while he could be better in his second season in the league, he has a long way to go to even be a replacement level starting caliber player. He too will likely remain a reserve in 2025, even in an overall underwhelming safety group. Top cornerback Christian Benford elevates this group significantly by himself and Taron Johnson is entrenched on the slot, but the rest of this position group has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B

Kicker

Kicker Tyler Bass has been a weak point of the Bills’ roster for a few years, finishing below average in four of five seasons in the league, costing the Bills 11.49 points compared to league average over that time, including 1.64 in 2024. He’s made 84.5% of his field goals in his career, but has overall had a relatively low difficulty level, attempting just 23 kicks of 50+ yards in his career. The Bills didn’t bring in any competition for him this off-season and seem content to give him another shot in 2025, but he figures to be at least somewhat below average again.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Bills won 13 games last season, but their first down rate differential and yards per play differential were more in line with a 10-win team. Their offense played at a high level and will likely continue doing so in 2025, but their defense struggled and will also likely continue doing so in 2024. Meanwhile, their +24 turnover margin is highly unlikely to come close to repeating, given the volatility of turnover margins on a year-to-year basis. Assuming that happens, that will expose the Bills’ defense more than it was exposed last season. Fortunately, they still look like clearly the best team in their division and they overall have one of the easiest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in AFC East