Month: June 2025

Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Quarterback

Since Ben Roethlisberger retired at the end of the 2021 season, the Steelers have started five quarterbacks in three seasons, none of whom have established themselves as a long-term starter. Add in the fact that Roethlisberger either struggled or was injured in his final three seasons in the league and it’s been six seasons since the Steelers last had good quarterback play. The Steelers have still finished .500 or better in all six of those seasons though, with four playoff appearances, on the strength of their defense. However, in all four of those playoff appearances they have been one and done, with their quarterback play being a significant limiting factor once they make the post-season.

This off-season, the Steelers started over at the quarterback position again, letting both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who made starts for them last season, leave as free agents. To replace them, their first move was to bring back Mason Rudolph, who spent 2018-2023 with the Steelers, but who was mostly a backup during that stretch, making just 13 starts, with just a 86.9 QB rating in those starts. Rudolph spent last season in Tennessee, making another 5 starts, but faring even worse with a 80.1 QB rating. The Steelers then used a 6th round pick on a developmental prospect in Will Howard, but their most notable quarterback addition was their third addition, as they signed future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who will start for them this season, with Rudolph as the backup and Howard as the third string.

The Steelers’ strategy is to hope Rodgers will put them over the top after all of their recent first round exits. There are a few problems with that strategy, however. For one, Rodgers is not nearly the quarterback he used to be. Rodgers played well into his late 30s, winning back-to-back MVPs in his age 37 and 38 seasons in 2020 and 2021, with PFF grades of 94.5 and 89.6 and QB ratings of 121.5 and 111.9 in those two seasons respectively, but he fell off pretty significantly in his age 39 season in 2022, with a QB rating of 91.1, the worst of his career as a starter, and a 77.7 PFF grade, the second worst of his career as a starter. 

In 2023, he missed all but 4 snaps with a torn achilles and then, upon his return in 2024, he continued playing at a similar level as 2022, with a PFF grade of 77.8 (15th among quarterbacks) and a QB rating of 90.5. Both of his 2022 and 2024 QB ratings are actually lower than the 94.8 QB rating the Steelers had as a team in 2024. Now in his age 42 season, Rodgers could easily continue declining and, in a best case scenario, he’ll probably play comparably to how he played in 2022 and 2024, which isn’t really an upgrade under center for the Steelers.

The other problem is the Steelers’ defense isn’t quite what it has been in recent years, finishing the regular season 14th both in yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed last season. In fact, despite their 10 wins and their post-season appearance, the Steelers finished last season 23rd in yards per play differential and 26th in first down rate differential, which are much more predictive on a year-to-year basis than win/loss record. The Steelers primarily had success last season because they ranked 2nd in the NFL with a +16 turnover margin, but turnover margins have next to no correlation on a year-to-year basis. Because of that, the Steelers are starting from a much lower base point than their 2024 record suggests, so, even if Rodgers is an upgrade at quarterback, which is unlikely, the Steelers won’t necessarily win more games as a result of that. This is still an underwhelming quarterback room.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Steelers made other significant changes on offense this off-season as well. At wide receiver, they traded for DK Metcalf and traded away George Pickens, opting to extend Metcalf on a 4-year, 132 million rather than giving a similar deal to Pickens, with both going into the final year of their contract. This is essentially a lateral move, even though the Steelers paid a 2025 2nd round pick for Metcalf and got back a 2026 3rd round pick for Pickens. Pickens has averaged a higher yards per target in his career (9.70 vs. 8.71), despite worse quarterback play, and is significantly younger, going into his age 24 season, while Metcalf is going into his age 28 season, but Metcalf has a slightly higher yards per route run average (1.90 vs. 1.83) and has received better PFF grades overall, finishing at 69.7, 82.7, 80.9, 75.3, 80.0, and 74.3 in six seasons in the league, while Pickens has finished at 68.8, 75.3, and 76.9 in his three seasons in the league.

For a while, it looked like the Steelers would keep both in 2025, which, though it would have been expensive, definitely would have benefited this offense, as the Steelers now still have the same wide receiver depth issues that they had a year ago, when their #2 wide receiver Calvin Austin had just a 36/548/4 slash line and 1.45 yards per route run on 58 targets. Their #3 wide receiver Van Jefferson was even worse, with a 24/276/2 slash line and 0.72 yards per route run on 40 targets. 

Austin, a 2022 2nd round pick who only averaged 0.79 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, would be best as a #3 receiver, especially since he is only 5-8 162, but he will probably be their de facto #2 receiver by default again this season. Jefferson is gone, which is addition by subtraction, but his replacement Robert Woods is unlikely to be significantly better. Woods has a career 1.53 yards per route run average, but that has fallen to 1.14, 1.02, and 1.05 over the past three seasons respectively and he is now heading into his age 33 season. 

Woods will likely face competition for the #3 receiver job from Roman Wilson, who played just 5 snaps and didn’t catch a pass as a rookie, but who at least has upside as a 2024 3rd round pick. Also in the mix for a reserve role is Scotty Miller, who played 209 snaps last season and averaged just 0.77 yards per route run. He has been better than that in his career, but his career yards per route run average is still just 1.21 and he has just 453 receiving yards total over the past four seasons, so, even in a thin position group, he is best as a deep reserve.

With all of the Steelers’ issues at wide receiver last season, they ranked 8th with 26.4% of their targets going to tight ends and tight ends figure to remain a big part of the offense again in 2025. Unfortunately, that position group isn’t good enough in the passing game to make up for their issues at wide receiver. Pat Freiermuth, their starting tight end, finished last season with a 65/653/7 slash line on 78 targets with 1.46 yards per route run. That is largely in line with his averages through four seasons in the league, as he has averaged a 55/548/5 slash line on an average of 76 targets with 1.41 yards per route run, since being selected in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Freiermuth will continue being backed up by Darnell Washington, an above average run blocker who also added a 1.29 yards per route run average and a 19/200/1 slash line on 25 targets in a limited role last season. That was a big upgrade from his rookie season, when the 2023 3rd round pick only averaged 0.44 yards per route run. He’s still inexperienced, but could easily remain an above average #2 tight end, with the ability to block and also contribute a little bit in the passing game. The Steelers also have Connor Heyward, who played 206 snaps as the #3 tight end last season, but he averaged just 0.69 yards per route run and has just a 1.06 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. This is still an overall underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Running backs were also a big part of the Steelers’ passing game last season, as they ranked 2nd in the league with 23.7% of targets going to running backs. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris split targets pretty evenly, with 47 and 48 respectively, and Warren was slightly more productive, with a 38/310/0 slash line and 1.44 yards per route run, as opposed to a 36/283/0 slash line and 1.29 yards per route run for Harris. As runners, Harris led the team with 263 carries, as opposed to 120 for Warren, but Warren was the more efficient back, with 4.26 YPC and a 50.0% carry success rate, as opposed to 3.97 YPC and a 43.7% carry success rate for Harris. 

Harris wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season and the Steelers will try to replace him with third round rookie Kaleb Johnson and veteran free agent addition Kenneth Gainwell. Johnson is a similar power back to Harris, but only caught 29 passes in his collegiate career, while Gainwell has a decent 1.00 yards per route run average as a passing down specialist in his career, but only has 280 carries in four seasons in the league. Even with Johnson and Gainwell both being added, it’s likely the Steelers will be giving a bigger role to Jaylen Warren, both as a rusher and a receiver.

Warren is a 2022 undrafted free agent and is a projection to a larger role, with 473 touches in three seasons in the league and a max of 210 touches in a season, but he has a lot of upside. In fact, last season was actually a down year for him as a runner, as he has a career 4.84 yards per carry average and a career 50.6% carry success rate. He figures to have a new career high in touches this season and has a good chance to be effective in that role, while Johnson will rotate in on some running downs, especially in short yardage, and Gainwell will rotate in on some passing downs. Overall, it’s a solid backfield that fits well together and that has a lot of upside if Warren can continue playing at the level he has played at throughout his career, now in a bigger workload.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

On the offensive line, the biggest change was the loss of left tackle Dan Moore in free agency, but he was a marginal starter with a 67.2 PFF grade in 17 starts and the Steelers have an obvious replacement in 2024 1st round pick Troy Fautanu, who missed all but 55 snaps in his rookie season due to injury, but has clear potential, now healthy going into his second season in the league. He comes with some downside, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up being an upgrade over Moore.

Fautanu will start opposite another former first round pick, 2023 14th overall pick Broderick Jones. Jones hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, finishing with season-long PFF grades of 60.7 and 58.5 across 27 total starts in two seasons in the league, primarily at right tackle, and he actually started last season on the bench before Fautanu got hurt, but he still has upside going into his third season in the league and could easily take a step forward in 2025. 

It’s unclear which of Fautanu and Jones will start on the left side and which will start on the right side as both have the ability to play both positions, but, either way, they will be the starters at tackle this season. They have a high upside, as recent high draft picks, but both come with downside as well, as Fautanu is coming off of a major injury and has one career start, while Jones has been mediocre thus far in his career. Depth is also an issue behind them, as swing tackle Calvin Anderson has made just 14 starts in six seasons in the league, with just two seasons above 60 on PFF.

The Steelers also didn’t retain right guard James Daniels this off-season. He excelled with a 92.9 PFF grade last season, but he only played four games due to injury, so his departure isn’t a huge loss. In his absence last season, Mason McCormick made 14 starts and struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade. McCormick will remain a starter this season, due to the lack of a better option, and he could be better, as he was only a 4th round rookie last season, but his improvement is not a guarantee. If he continues to struggle, the only alternative the Steelers have is Spencer Anderson, a 2023 7th round pick who struggled with a 53.2 PFF grade in the first four starts of his career last season. It’s unlikely he would be an upgrade, even over the mediocre McCormick, and, even as a reserve option, Anderson is underwhelming.

Opposite McCormick at left guard, Isaac Seumalo remains as the starter. He had a solid 67.6 PFF grade in 13 starts last season, but that was actually the second lowest grade of the seven seasons he’s been a primary starter in his career and he’s now heading into his age 32 season, so he could decline further this season. He’s also had durability issues in his career, missing time in all but two of nine seasons in the league, with 37 games missed total. The odds of him declining and/or missing significant time in 2025 are fairly high.

The Steelers’ best starter who made it through the season healthy last season was another rookie, center Zach Frazier, one of three draft picks from the 2024 class expected to start for the Steelers in 2025. A second round pick, Frazier finished his rookie season with a 76.8 PFF grade in 15 starts and could easily have a similar or even better season again in 2025. He’s the highlight of an overall underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Steelers’ defense was solid, but not elite last season. Their personnel is largely the same in 2025, with just 3 of the 14 players who played at least 300 snaps on this defense last season no longer on the team. However, one concern is the age of a couple of their top players, most notably interior defender Cameron Heyward, who heads into his age 36 season. Heyward turned back the clock last season with a dominant year, finishing with a 90.3 PFF grade across 779 snaps, playing at a high level against the run and as a pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate.

That was Heyward’s seventh season above 80 on PFF in his last eight seasons, but the one exception was a 71.9 PFF grade on 442 snaps in 11 games in 2023 and, given his age, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2025 season was more similar to his 2023 season than his 2024 season. With Heyward aging, the Steelers felt it was important to add a long-term replacement, using their first round pick on Derrick Harmon. In the short-term, Harmon figures to take over the role left behind by free agent departure Larry Ogunjobi and, considering Ogunjobi had just a 49.4 PFF grade across 495 snaps, it wouldn’t be hard for Harmon to be an upgrade, but Harmon might not be good enough as a rookie to offset a potential significant decline from Heyward.

The Steelers also have Keeanu Benton, a 2023 2nd round pick who has shown some promise through two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 74.8 and 68.2 across snap counts of 483 and 641 respectively. Benton had just 2 sacks in those two seasons, but he added 16 quarterback hits and a 6.9% pressure rate, while holding up well against the run. Still only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him have a career best year in his third season in the league in 2025.

With Heyward, Harmon, and Benton likely to play the vast majority of the interior defender snaps for the Steelers in 2025, additional depth is likely to only be needed in case of injury to one of their top-3, but that’s definitely a possibility. Outside of their top-3, the Steelers’ best interior defender is probably free agent addition Daniel Ekuale, who has finished above 60 on PFF in three straight seasons, including a 60.3 PFF grade across 723 snaps last season. He only had a 2.4% pressure rate last season, but played well against the run. He’s going into his age 31 season, but still has a good chance to be a capable reserve.

Additional reserve options include Isaiahh Loudermilk, a 2021 5th round pick who has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of 202 snaps per season, and 5th round rookie Yahya Black, but both would likely struggle and fortunately would only see significant snaps in case of emergency. This is a talented position group overall, but Cameron Heyward is highly unlikely to repeat last season’s dominant campaign.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

Along with Heyward, another Steelers defender who had an elite season last season was TJ Watt, with a 92.2 PFF grade across 939 snaps, but he too is getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season. His age isn’t nearly as big of a concern as Heyward, but he could still decline noticeably, which would have a negative effect on this defense as a whole. Watt is still likely to play at a pretty high level even if he declines though, as he’s starting from a very high base point. He’s finished above 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, including four seasons above 90. Also a high level run defender, Watt has totaled 88 sacks, 107 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in 90 games over the past six seasons, while winning the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year award. Even if he’s not at his peak form, he should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league.

Alex Highsmith, the Steelers’ other starting edge defender, is also coming off of a high level season, missing six games with injuries, but receiving a 89.5 PFF grade across 525 snaps in 11 games. Equally good as a pass rusher and a run defender, Highsmith had 6 sacks, 9 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate last season, despite the missed time due to injury. That performance didn’t come out of nowhere either, as he had a 90.3 PFF grade across 909 snaps in 17 games in 2023, while compiling 7 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Highsmith should remain a high level edge defender in 2025 and, if Watt declines, Highsmith could potentially take over as the Steelers’ top edge defender.

With Watt and Highsmith being high level players who play every down, the Steelers don’t have much need for depth at the edge defender position, but top reserve Nick Herbig showed a lot of potential last season too, with a 81.9 PFF grade across 416 snaps in 13 games, including 236 snaps in five starts in Highsmith’s absence. As a pass rusher, he had 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate, despite the limited playing time. A 2023 4th round pick, Herbig also flashed a lot of potential in a very limited role as a rookie with a 80.7 PFF grade across 191 snaps. 

Herbig would be a projection to a larger role, but he has the talent to be an above average starter for most teams and, as a reserve, he is one of the best in the league. The Steelers also further added to their depth this off-season by using a 4th round pick on Jack Sawyer, though he would likely need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see more than a few snaps per game. This is a deep and talented edge defender group overall.

Grade: A

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Steelers were hoping for a big year out of Patrick Queen, who they signed to a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal last off-season. Queen was a first round pick by the Ravens in 2020 and finished with PFF grades of 70.0 and 73.1 in his final two seasons in Baltimore, while playing every down, with snap counts of 1,024 and 1,120 respectively. However, he regressed to his pre-2022 form in 2024, finishing with a 58.5 PFF grade across 1,091 snaps. Queen is only going into his age 26 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential, even if that’s not a guarantee.

Fortunately, the Steelers got good play at the other linebacker position from a platoon of Elandon Roberts (77.2 PFF grade across 478 snaps) and Payton Wilson (75.3 PFF grade across 493 snaps). Roberts was not retained as a free agent this season, so they are hoping Wilson, who was the passing down specialist last season, can continue playing well in an every down role. Wilson was a 3rd round pick in 2024 and received PFF grades above 60 both as a run defender and in coverage, so he has the potential to be a good every down player in his second season in the league in 2025, but he’s still a projection to that larger role. 

If Wilson proves incapable of being an every down player, the Steelers would likely turn to Cole Holcomb to replace Roberts in a situational role. Holcomb didn’t play a snap in 2024 while working back from a gruesome knee injury suffered in week 9 of the 2023 season, but he has finished above 60 in run defense on PFF in all five healthy seasons of his career and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, so he could be a useful situational player if he has recovered close to his old form, though that’s obviously a question mark, given the nature of his injury. The Steelers are hoping he can just be a reserve and that Wilson will be able to break out as an every down player in his second season in the league. 

The Steelers also signed Malik Harrison, a 2020 3rd round pick of the Ravens, but he has played just 250 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, with a max of 371 snaps played in a season and three seasons below 60 on PFF, so he was just signed to be a reserve. The Steelers have a high upside starting linebacker duo of Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson and an intriguing backup option in Cole Holcomb, but all three come with downside, with Queen coming off of a down year, Wilson never having played an every down role, and Holcomb having not played in a year and a half due to a brutal injury.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Steelers also got solid play out of their safeties last season, with Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott receiving PFF grades of 68.4 and 70.2 in 14 starts and 17 starts respectively. For Fitzpatrick, last season was actually a down year, as he has finished above 70 on PFF in four of the past six seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, Fitzpatrick has a good chance to be better in 2025 than he was in 2024. Elliott, on the other hand, is coming off his 2nd best PFF grade in five seasons as a starter, but it wasn’t out of line with how he’s played in the past, finishing between 65.6 and 72.6 on PFF in those five seasons. Also relatively young in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The Steelers’ didn’t retain their top reserve safety, Damontee Kazee, this off-season, but he had just a 58.8 PFF grade across 290 snaps last season and the Steelers likely upgraded by replacing him with free agent addition Juan Thornhill. Thornhill has finished above 65 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, while starting 74 of 87 games played over those six seasons. He has missed six games in each of the past two seasons respectively and is now heading into his age 30 season, but, as far as reserve safeties go, he’s a great option.

Cornerback was probably the Steelers’ biggest weakness on defense last season, as no cornerback played more than 200 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 60. That includes Joey Porter, their de facto top cornerback, who had a 55.0 PFF grade. Porter was a second round pick in 2023 and has shown some promise, but he has also committed 27 penalties in two seasons in the league, including 15 last season, which was three more than any other cornerback. Porter was better as a rookie though, with a 65.2 PFF grade, and, only in his age 25 season, he could easily bounce back at least somewhat in his third season in the league, or perhaps even have his best year yet.

The Steelers also should get better play opposite Porter this season, parting ways with Donte Jackson, who had a 50.0 PFF grade across 780 snaps, and replacing him with veteran free agent addition Darius Slay. Slay comes with some risk though because, while he has finished above 60 on PFF in ten of the last eleven seasons, with seven seasons above 70 and four seasons above 80, he is also going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly in 2025. Even if he doesn’t decline, it’s hard to imagine him being significantly better than the 68.4 PFF grade he had in 2023 or the 67.6 PFF grade he had in 2024, though, again, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be better than Jackson was last season.

Unfortunately, the Steelers still have Beanie Bishop as their slot cornerback, after the 2024 undrafted free agent struggled with a 55.5 PFF grade across 549 snaps last season. He could be better in his second season in the league in 2025, but there’s also probably a good reason why he went undrafted and it’s very possible he never develops into even a capable slot cornerback. The Steelers do have Cory Trice as their top reserve and #4 cornerback and the 2023 7th round pick flashed potential with a 69.4 PFF grade last season, but he did so on only 194 snaps, the first 194 snaps of his career, so he’s very inexperienced and could easily struggle if injuries force him into a significant role. The Steelers have a solid group at safety and their cornerbacks should be better by default this season, but this secondary still has some concerns.

Grade: B

Kicker

Steelers kicker Chris Boswell was the best in the league last season, leading the league with 14.63 points above average, making 41 of 44 field goals and all 35 extra points. This was a career best year for Boswell, but it wasn’t out of the ordinary, as his 40.16 points above average over the past decade rank second in the league over that span, only behind Justin Tucker. Boswell is now in his age 34 season, but elite kickers can perform at a high level into their mid-to-late 30s, so I am not really concerned about his age. He probably won’t be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in 2024, just by default, but he should still be one of the top few kickers in the league.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Steelers are hoping Aaron Rodgers upgrades their quarterback room, but the way he has played in his last two healthy seasons is not significantly better than what the Steelers got at quarterback last season and Rodgers is now heading into his age 42 season and could decline further. The Steelers are also starting from a lower base point than their 2024 record suggests, as they finished last season 23rd in yards per play differential and 26th in first down rate differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss records year-to-year. 

The Steelers also have the second oldest roster in the NFL, in part due to Rodgers, but also because of some other older players, including TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward, who were their best two defenders last season. The Steelers are well coached and could still compete for a playoff spot, but they have a tough schedule and there are at least seven better teams than them in the AFC, so they should find themselves on the outside looking in at the post-season when all is said and done.

Prediction: 5-12, 3rd in AFC North

Kansas City Chiefs 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs

Quarterback

The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record in the league last season at 15-2, with one of those losses being a meaningless week 18 game when they already had the #1 seed locked up, and then they won their first two post-season games en route to the Super Bowl. However, in doing that, the Chiefs went an improbable 11-0 in one-score games, narrowly escaping defeat to lesser opponents on several occasions. In the Super Bowl, against their toughest opponent of the season in the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs proved to be overmatched, losing 40-22 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the final score suggested.

A team’s record in one-score games tends to be highly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and, while Patrick Mahomes is 52-19 in one-score games in his career, which seems to make him an exception to the rule, it’s still highly unlikely the Chiefs will go 11-0 in one-score games again, so the Chiefs will have to elevate their overall level of play if they want to have the regular season success they had last season. They will also have to elevate their overall level of play if they want to compete at the highest level, after being embarrassed against their toughest opponent last season. 

The Chiefs’ offense has more room for improvement than their defense, which a couple years ago would have sounded crazy to say, as Mahomes used to consistently quarterback high level offenses, but his production has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons. After completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions (106.0 QB rating) in his first five seasons in the league, Mahomes has seen those numbers fall to 67.3% completion, 6.89 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions (93.0 QB rating) over the past two seasons. Last season, the Chiefs ranked just 22nd in yards per play and 13th in first down rate allowed.

Mahomes himself hasn’t necessarily been the problem, as his PFF grades of 85.1 and 85.8 in 2023 and 2024 aren’t far off of his PFF grades from 2018-2022, as they are his 5th and 4th highest grades of his 7-year tenure as a starter respectively. The bigger problem is how much his offensive supporting cast has fallen off around him. I will get into whether or not that is likely to improve this season later, but Mahomes himself should continue playing at a relatively high level in 2025.

Mahomes has also been pretty durable in his career, missing just two starts due to injury in seven seasons as a starter, and the Chiefs also have a good backup option, signing Gardner Minshew this off-season. Minshew fizzled out as a starter, with a 88.5 QB rating in 46 starts with four teams in six seasons in the league, but he’s an above average option to have as a backup. The Chiefs would obviously be in trouble if Mahomes missed significant time with injury, but that’s true of all elite quarterbacks and is not an indictment on Minshew as a backup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

A big problem with this offense over the past three seasons has been their receiving corps. The Chiefs thought they solved this problem last off-season when they signed Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round, to go with 2023 2nd round pick Rashee Rice, who broke out down the stretch of his rookie season. However, Brown and Rice were limited to two games and four games respectively due to injury, while Worthy had an underwhelming rookie season, with just a 1.24 yards per route run average and a 59/638/6 slash line on 98 targets. 

The Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins mid-season and he averaged 1.75 yards per route run, but he struggled to learn the offense on the fly and averaged just 35.6 snaps per game in the 10 regular season games he played for the team, which declined even further in the playoffs, when he saw just 49 snaps in three games. Instead, it was Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster who finished second and third on the team in snaps played among wide receivers, with 684 and 424 respectively, and they averaged just 0.72 yards per route run and 0.89 yards per route run respectively. 

The good news going into 2025 is that Rice and Brown are likely to be much healthier, while Worthy showed a lot of potential down the stretch, averaging 2.00 yards per route run with a 58/679/6 slash line on 79 targets in his final 10 games of the season, including the post-season. That is a small sample size and I wouldn’t expect him to be that good for the entire 2025 season, but he entered the league with a lot of upside and there is a good chance his production improves at least somewhat from 2024 to 2025.

Rice has the most potential of the trio. As a rookie, averaged 2.39 yards per route run and had a 79/938/7 slash line, including a 62/765/5 slash line in 11 games after he started playing every down, which extrapolates to 96/1182/7 over 17 games, and he improved even further in his second season in the league, with a 24/288/2 slash line and 3.27 yards per route run in his first three games, before suffering a season ending injury early in week 4. Rice is still only in his age 25 season and has a sky-high upside, but, in addition to his injury recovery complicating his projection, he could also be facing a suspension, depending on the resolution of an arrest during last off-season, though there is at least a good chance any potential suspension wouldn’t happen until 2026. Rice’s upside is massive, but he does at least come with some downside.

Brown’s upside isn’t nearly as high, but he should still be a welcome addition. In six seasons in the league, the 2019 1st round pick has averaged 1.57 yards per route run and a 76/858/6 slash line per 17 games and he is still only going into his age 28 season. Durability has been a consistent issue for him though, as he has missed time in all but one season in the league, with 26 games missed total over six seasons, but he still figures to play significantly more games than he did a year ago. If Rice and Worthy come close to living up to their potential, Brown would probably be the Chiefs #3 receiver and any wide receiver group that has Brown as their third option is in good shape.

For depth options, the Chiefs return JuJu Smith-Schuster and added 4th round pick Jalen Royals to give them more insurance. Smith-Schuster showed a lot of promise early in his career, surpassing two yards per route run in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has seen that fall to 1.34 yards per route run over the past six seasons combined and, now going into his age 29 season, so many seasons removed from his impressive early seasons, it’s highly unlikely he will ever come close to finding his old form. 

Smith-Schuster is not a bad depth option, but he would be a significant downgrade if forced back into a top-3 role in the absence of Rice, Worthy, or Brown. He figures to start the season ahead of the rookie Royals on the depth chart, but Royals was a good value in the fourth round and could earn his way into the #4 role by season’s end. The Chiefs also still have 2022 2nd round pick Skyy Moore, but he has shown nothing through three seasons in the league, averaging 1.02 yards per route run with just 43 total catches and, while he could still have theoretical upside in his age 25 season, there is a good chance he doesn’t even make the final roster. 

With all of the issues the Chiefs had at wide receiver last season, tight end Travis Kelce led the team in targets by a wide margin, with 133, but he isn’t the player he used to be and turned those targets into just a 97/823/3 slash line, with 1.43 yards per route run. Kelce is one of the best tight ends of all time and has averaged 2.07 yards per route run and a 91/1105/7 slash line per season over the past eleven seasons, but last season’s yards per route run average and total receiving yardage were career lows and now he is going into his age 36 season. 

The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL last season with 33.7% of their targets going to tight ends and 29th with 49.7% of their targets going to wide receivers, which should change drastically in 2025, given the Chiefs’ likely improvement at the wide receiver position. In addition to that, Kelce could also see his overall playing time decrease, in favor of younger backup Noah Gray. Gray was only slightly behind Kelce last season with 1.37 yards per route run and, while that is by far a career best, after averaging just 0.88 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league, Gray has still earned more opportunity and giving Kelce more rest could keep him fresher down the stretch. Overall, this looks likely to be a much better receiving corps in 2025.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was also a problem last season, but, unlike their receiving corps, this group is unlikely to be better in 2025. In fact, they could be worse, after trading away guard Joe Thuney. Thuney was heading into his age 33 season and a contract year, but he still finished with a 79.9 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, so it’s hard to argue he won’t be missed. To replace Thuney, the Chiefs’ options are Mike Caliendo and Kingsley Suamataia.

Caliendo went undrafted in 2022 and has shown no signs of being a starting caliber player in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 45.1 and 49.0 on snap counts of 64 and 237 in 2023 and 2024, the only two seasons of his career in which he’s seen any offensive snaps. Suamataia at least has upside, being selected in the 2nd round in 2024, but he was even worse than Caliendo last season, finishing with a 39.4 PFF grade across 195 snaps. Suamataia’s struggles last season came at left tackle and the Chiefs are hoping that a move inside to left guard in his second season in the league will help him take a big step forward, but that’s far from a guarantee. It’s very likely whoever starts at left guard will be a big liability, a massive shift from last season, when Joe Thuney was a well above average starter.

Suamataia wasn’t the only player who struggled at left tackle last season, as all three players who made starts there finished below 60 on PFF. Wanya Morris was their primary left tackle last season, making 11 starts, and he finished with a 53.0 PFF grade. Morris was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but was also mediocre as a rookie, with a 55.6 PFF grade across 340 snaps. Morris may still have some untapped upside, but they are not planning on relying on him this season, adding Josh Simmons in the first round of the draft and signing Jaylon Moore to a 2-year, 30 million dollar deal, both of whom are more likely than Morris to see action at left tackle this season.

Both Simmons and Moore have upside, but they come with downside as well. Simmons could have been a top-15 pick in the draft, but fell to the Chiefs at 32 because he tore his patellar tendon during his final collegiate season, which is a very significant knee injury. Even if his recovery doesn’t cause him to miss any games this season, there is no guarantee that Simmons will return to his pre-injury form, especially not right away. Moore, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 66.3, 72.9, and 74.9 in the past three seasons, but the 2021 5th round pick has only made 12 starts in four seasons in the league and is a projection to a season-long starting role, which he could ultimately end up struggling in. 

At right tackle, Jawaan Taylor is probably locked into a starting role, but that is mostly because his 20 million dollar salary for 2025 is guaranteed and the Chiefs don’t really have a better option anyway. Taylor was signed to a 4-year, 80 million dollar contract with essentially 60 million guaranteed two off-season ago, but that contract looked like a mistake at the time, after Taylor had finished with PFF grades of 63.7, 56.5, 60.4, and 58.7 in his first four seasons in the league, and it has only gotten worse over the past two seasons, when he has finished with PFF grades of 51.6 and 59.9 respectively. He will likely continue being mediocre in 2025 and could potentially struggle enough that he gets benched down the stretch for one of Simmons or Moore, who are not necessarily upgrades.

The Chiefs do at least return two bright spots from a year ago, center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith. Humphrey and Smith were added in the same draft, taken in the 2nd round and the 5th round respectively in 2021 and both have drastically exceeded their draft slot, with Humphrey receiving PFF grades of 91.4, 90.0, 78.2, and 92.8 over the past four seasons and Smith receiving PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, 72.2, and 78.8. Humphrey was kept on a 4-year, 72 million dollar extension last off-season, while Trey Smith was franchise tagged at a price of 23.4 million for one year this off-season, as he and the Chiefs work towards a long-term extension. Humphrey and Smith elevate this offensive line, but the rest of this group has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Chiefs’ running game was an issue last season too, ranking 22nd in the NFL with a 3.97 YPC average. Isiah Pacheco had averaged 4.71 YPC across 375 carries between 2022 and 2023 as the lead back, but injuries limited him to just 3.73 YPC across 83 carries in seven games last season. In his absence, Kareem Hunt was the lead back and averaged just 3.64 YPC across 200 carries, while fullback Carson Steele moved to running back and also saw carries, averaging just 3.27 YPC across 56 carries.

Pacheco only missed three games in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, so he’s not an injury prone player and he has a good chance to stay healthy and bounce back in 2025. However, he’s not guaranteed to step back into as big of a role as he had previously. The Chiefs added Elijah Mitchell as a free agent this off-season and, while he’s a major injury risk, limited to 327 carries in 27 games in four seasons in the league, including a full season missed to injury last season, he’s also shown a lot of promise, averaging 4.66 YPC in his limited action. If he can stay healthy, he could eat into a significant chunk of Pacheco’s carries.

The Chiefs also added Brashard Smith in the 7th round of the draft and, while he might not be a significant threat for carries, he could easily earn a passing down role. Pacheco and Mitchell have averaged just 0.88 yards per route run and 0.70 yards per route run respectively in their careers and, while Hunt used to be a good pass catcher, he’s averaged less than one yard per route run in three straight seasons, in addition to averaging less than 4 yards per carry in three straight seasons. Expect Pacheco and Mitchell to compete for early down carries and Hunt and Smith to compete for passing game work in a backfield that should be deeper and more talented than a year ago.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Chiefs’ defense was much better than their offense in 2024, and they bring back all but two of the 17 players who played at least 300 snaps for them on defense last season, so they have a good chance to remain a high level unit. One of the two players who left is interior defender Tershawn Wharton, who was a good pass rusher with 6.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate, but struggled mightily against the run with a 44.3 PFF grade in run defense, leading to him finishing with an overall PFF grade of just 56.3 across 667 snaps, so he won’t be missed too much.

Wharton was also replaced by a very similar player in Jerry Tillery, who has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense in five of six seasons in the league, but has totaled 12.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 96 career games. The Chiefs also added Omarr Norman-Lott, who is a more well-rounded player, in the 2nd round of the draft to give them needed depth. He will essentially be replacing veteran free agent departure Derrick Nnadi, who struggled mightily with a 35.8 PFF grade across 221 snaps last season.

Chris Jones was by far the Chiefs’ best interior defender last season, one of the best interior defenders in the league in fact, and he elevates this position group significantly by himself. Jones was PFF’s 3rd ranked interior defender especially excelling as a pass rusher with 5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate. In total, Jones has finished above 80 on PFF in eight straight seasons, including three seasons above 90, while accumulating 80.5 sacks, 120 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in 138 career games. Jones is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline this season, which would hurt this defense, but even if he declines, he is declining from such a high base point that it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t still be one of the best interior defenders in the league, especially as a pass rusher.

The Chiefs also still have Mike Pennel, who only had a 5.6% pressure rate last season, but was a useful situational run stopper, playing 320 snaps overall. Pennel has maxed out at 358 snaps played in a season in 11 seasons in the league, while totaling just a 5.8% pressure rate for his career, but he’s carved out a role as a useful situational run stopper. However, he is now going into his age 34 season, so he might not be able to be relied on in that role for another season. This is still an underwhelming group outside of Chris Jones, but Jones significantly elevates this group overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Chiefs’ edge defender group is largely the same as a year ago and, to the extent it is different, it could be better, with Charles Omenihu likely to play more than the 225 snaps in six games he was limited to last season due to injury and Ashton Gillotte being added in the third round of the draft. George Karlaftis was the best of the bunch last season and that figures to remain the case in 2025. He finished last season with a 68.4 PFF grade across 831 snaps, playing at his best as a pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 21 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate, after a 64.0 PFF grade across 755 snaps and 10.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 2023. He has struggled against the run and is not an elite pass rusher, as he benefits significantly from Chris Jones drawing double teams on the interior, but the 2022 1st round pick is still only in his age 24 season and could keep getting better.

The rest of this position group used heavy rotation last season, with Mike Danna ranking second among Chiefs edge defenders with only 496 snaps played. That rotation should continue, but Danna might not play as big of a role, with 2023 1st round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah going into his third season in the league and possibly in line for a bigger role, after playing just 550 snaps total in his first two seasons in the league, and Charles Omenihu likely to be healthier than a year ago. 

Anudike-Uzomah probably has the highest upside of the bunch, but hasn’t shown much in two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 218 and 332. He could take a step forward in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee. Danna, on the other hand, has finished in the 60s on PFF in all five seasons in the league, on an average of 516 snaps per season, while Omenihu has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in five of six seasons in the league, but has finished above 60 in pass rush grade in all six seasons, with three seasons above 70 and a total of 19.5 sacks, 38 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 78 career games, despite lining up inside frequently in passing situations. This is a decent position group and could be better than a year ago, with Omenihu set to be healthier and a pair of recent first round picks who could take a step forward.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs’ linebackers were an effective group last season and the same group returns this season. Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill were solid as the starters, with PFF grades of 65.4 and 66.5 respectively across snap counts of 941 and 798, but situational run stopper Leo Chenal had the best PFF grade of the bunch, with a 83.6 PFF grade, albeit across just 445 snaps. Chenal has been a great run defender throughout his three seasons in the league, but last season was his first good season in coverage and the 2022 3rd round pick may have earned a bigger role in 2025, still only his age 25 season.

If Chenal plays a bigger role in 2025, it will likely come at the expense of Tranquill. Tranquill has finished above 60 on PFF in all five healthy seasons in the league, maxing out at a 70.5 PFF grade in 2023, but he hasn’t been as good in his career as Bolton has and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could decline somewhat in 2025. Bolton, on the other hand, is actually coming off of a career worst season, having finished with PFF grades of 69.2, 75.7, and 69.2 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still only in his age 25 season, he has some bounce back potential in 2025. This is a talented linebacking corps overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The other defensive player who the Chiefs lost this off-season is safety Justin Reid, who had a 76.9 PFF grade across 974 snaps in 2024, but they replaced him by giving a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal to free agent cornerback Kristian Fulton, whose addition will allow the Chiefs to move Chamarri Conner back to his natural position at safety full-time, after spending time at corner down the stretch last season. Fulton is coming off of a career best year with the Chargers in 2024, receiving a 71.1 PFF grade across 760 snaps, after finishing below 60 on PFF in two of his first four seasons in the league with the Titans, including a 46.4 PFF grade across 644 snaps as recently as 2023. 

Fulton has always had talent as a former 2020 2nd round pick, so it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner, but it seems more likely he will regress at least somewhat in 2025, though he could still remain a capable starter. Conner, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 72.7 and 68.2 on snap counts of 305 and 573 as a versatile reserve in two seasons in the league. The 2023 4th round pick will probably play a career high in snaps in 2025 by a significant margin and is a projection to that larger role, but he could easily be a capable every down starter. 

Conner will start next to Bryan Cook, who is the incumbent starter at the other safety position. He played a career high in snaps last season with 974 and had a 63.7 PFF grade, in line with the PFF grades of 64.3 and 65.2 he had on snap counts of 341 and 593 in his first two seasons in the league. The 2022 2nd round pick is still only in his age 26 season and could still have some further untapped upside, but, even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter in 2025. The Chiefs also have 2024 4th round pick Jaden Hicks, who flashed potential with a 72.2 PFF grade across 330 snaps as a rookie and could rotate in as a reserve in his second season in the league in 2025.

The Chiefs’ best defensive back by far is cornerback Trent McDuffie, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. The 2022 1st round pick finished 7th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 82.9 grade in 2023 and 2nd among cornerbacks on PFF with a 83.1 grade in 2024. Still only in his age 25 season, McDuffie looks likely to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come and could potentially have further untapped upside. 

Along with McDuffie and Fulton, the Chiefs’ third cornerback is likely to be Jaylen Watson, who was on his way to a solid season in 2024 with a 70.9 PFF grade through six games, before missing the rest of the regular season with injury. Watson was a 7th round pick in 2022 and only had PFF grades of 56.1 and 66.1 across snap counts of 604 and 440 in his first two seasons in the league, so he’s no guarantee to continue playing over the course of a full season at the level he played at in those six games last season, but he has potential and is probably the Chiefs’ best option for a third cornerback. 

The Chiefs’ other cornerbacks options are Joshua Williams, a 2022 4th round pick who has been solid in limited action in three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 60.6, 73.0, and 64.3 on an average of 390 snaps per season, Nazeeh Johnson, a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 53.9 PFF grade in the first 494 snaps of his career last season, and third round rookie Nohl Williams. Overall, this is an above average secondary, elevated by elite cornerback Trent McDuffie, but this group is not without concerns.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Harrison Butker finished with 2.59 points below average last season, but that was only his second below average season in eight seasons in the league. In fact, in his eight seasons in the league, he has accumulated the third most points above average of any kicker in the league over that span with 30.21. Butker is going into his age 30 season, but those are still prime years for kickers, who often play at a high level into their 30s, so he has a good chance to bounce back in 2025, perhaps in a big way.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs are unlikely to quite have the same level of success in close games as they had last season, so they will need to elevate their level of play if they want to continue being one of the favorites for the #1 seed in the AFC and ultimately if they want to win the Super Bowl. Fortunately, they have a good chance to do so because one of their biggest weaknesses last season, their receiving corps, looks likely to be a position of strength in 2025.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC West

Los Angeles Rams 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

The Rams were at something of a crossroads at the quarterback position this off-season. With 2 years and 58 million left on his contract, none of which was guaranteed, Rams quarterback Matt Stafford wanted a contract adjustment and was willing to entertain a trade if he didn’t get what he wanted. Stafford reportedly had offers from the Giants and Raiders for significant pay raises and, while neither of those teams gave Stafford the comfortability and winning potential that the Rams did, they did give Stafford intriguing alternatives to consider. 

With Stafford set to go into his age 37, the Rams were hesitant to make significant long-term commitments to Stafford, but didn’t have a good alternative. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the better and more accomplished backups in the league, with a career 97.6 QB rating in 64 starts, but he is also getting up there in age, heading into his age 34 season, and would have given the Rams a lower ceiling as a team, while being significantly more injury prone, as compared to Stafford. They could have gone with Garoppolo as a cheaper bridge option to a quarterback they would draft, but the draft was weak at the quarterback position this year, making this an inopportune time to need to draft a young quarterback.

In the end, the Rams probably did the best they could with the situation. They kept Stafford by giving him a raise over the next two years, without having to match the reported 50+ million per year the Giants and Raiders were willing to pay Stafford and without making any commitments to Stafford beyond his age 38 season in 2026, upping his total salary over the next two season from 58 million to 84 million and mostly guaranteeing it all. 

In the draft, the Rams traded out of the first round and got an extra first round pick in 2026 for doing so, giving them a pair of first round picks in a much better quarterback draft next off-season. The plan may be to draft Stafford’s successor next year, with Stafford having one year left on his contract, or potentially even to trade Stafford next otf-season if needed and go with a combination of Garoppolo and a rookie in 2025 instead.

For now Stafford remains as the starter with Garoppolo as the backup. Stafford completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions last season, while receiving a 74.7 PFF grade, 21st among quarterbacks. However, that was actually his worst PFF grade in a healthy season since 2015, so it’s possible he is starting to decline and could decline further in 2025. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off in 2025, but his best days may be behind him at this point. Still, with Stafford and Garoppolo, this is a better quarterback room than a lot of other teams have. 

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One concern with Stafford, in addition to his age, is that his cap hit will be 17.00% of the cap in 2025 and is projected to be 15.72% of the cap in 2026. Those would be the 2nd and 4th highest cap hit percentages of any quarterback to win the Super Bowl in the salary cap era, as having a high cap hit makes it significantly harder to fill out the rest of your roster with enough talent for a team to go all the way. At this stage of his career, Stafford probably needs a great roster around him to compete at the highest level. Fortunately, the Rams have done a great job finding talent through the draft in recent years, allowing them to keep the cost of the rest of this roster down, while still remaining competitive. 

What makes the Rams’ strong drafting in recent years even more impressive is the fact that they’ve had just one first round pick and four top-50 picks in their past nine drafts, as a result of trades down and aggressive trades for veterans, many of whom are no longer on the roster. One of their many draft steals outside of the top-50 and arguably the best of the bunch is Puka Nacua, who has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, despite only being drafted in the 5th round in 2023. 

Nacua finished his rookie season as PFF’s 10th ranked wide receiver with a 87.9 PFF grade and had a 105/1486/6 slash line with 2.59 yards per route run. In 2024, his PFF grade went up to 92.8, 1st in the league among wide receivers, and his yards per route run went up to 3.56, first in the league among wide receivers by a wide margin, with the second ranked AJ Brown averaging 2.99 yards per route run. Nacua’s overall production fell to 79/990/3 in 2024, but that was because he missed six games with injury. His per 17 game numbers were 122/1530/5, which would have exceeded his rookie year numbers. Still only in his age 24 season, Nacua has the potential to lead the league in receiving in 2025 if he can stay healthy for the whole season.

The Rams also might have upgraded opposite Nacua as well. Cooper Kupp was once one of the best wide receivers in the league, but age and injury had slowed him in recent years, leading to him having just a 67/710/6 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 12 games last season, which led to the Rams releasing him ahead of a 20 million non-guaranteed salary for his age 32 season in 2025 and then giving that money to Davante Adams, who signed on a 2-year, 44 million dollar deal.

Adams is actually older than Kupp, going into his age 33 season, so he comes with some risk, but he doesn’t have Kupp’s injury history, missing just three games in the past four seasons, and he was the better of the two receivers last season, finishing with a 85/1063/8 slash line in 14 games and averaging 2.04 yards per route run. It’s reasonable to expect some decline from him in 2025, but the Rams don’t need him to be a #1 receiver and, as far as #2 receivers go, he should be an above average one, barring a massive decline. 

The Rams will probably have an upgrade at the #3 receiver spot as well. They didn’t add anyone, but they let go of DeMarcus Robinson, which should be addition by subtraction, as he averaged just 0.99 yards per route run last season and will be replaced primarily by Tutu Atwell, who averaged 2.19 yards per route run in a limited role last season. Atwell probably won’t carry that efficiency into a larger role and he only has a 1.60 yards per route run average in his career, but the 2021 2nd round pick has always had talent and is only going into his age 26 season, so it shouldn’t be hard for him to be more efficient than Robinson. The Rams also have Jordan Whittington, who was even more efficient (2.50 yards per route run), albeit in an even smaller role last season as a 6th round rookie. He probably will have a significantly smaller role than Atwell this season, but he figures to rotate in from time to time and has a lot of upside as far as #4 receivers go.

The tight end position was not a big part of this offense last season, as they targeted tight ends on just 15.3% of targets, 5th fewest in the league, as opposed to the wide receiver position, which received a league leading 74.5% of targets. That will likely remain the case again in 2025, though that has more to do with their talent at wide receiver than their lack of talent at the tight end position. Colby Parkinson struggled with 0.98 yards per route run last season as their primary tight end and he only has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, but he was only starting because Tyler Higbee missed most of the season with injury, limited to three games.

Higbee, who has a career 1.36 yards per route run average, including 1.89 yards per route run in very limited action last season, should be healthier this season. Higbee’s age is a concern, going into his age 32 season, but the Rams used their 2nd round pick on Terrance Ferguson to compensate for Higbee’s aging. The Rams rarely use two tight end sets, but Higbee and Ferguson figure to both see action, potentially splitting the starters’ snaps. With Higbee back and Ferguson being added, Parkinson could easily be relegated to the #3 tight end spot, which would mean he would play very little. With Puka Nacua likely to be healthier, Davante Adams likely being an upgrade over Cooper Kupp, DeMarcus Robinson’s absence being addition by subtraction, the addition of Terrance Ferguson, and a likely healthier season from Tyler Higbee, there is a good chance this receiving corps is significantly better in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Another late round steal the Rams have found in recent years is running back Kyren Williams, a 2022 5th round pick who has been their feature back for the past two seasons, totaling 228 carries in just 12 games in 2023 and then 316 carries (3rd in the NFL) in 16 games last season. Williams was a lot more effective in 2023 though. In 2023 he had a 5.02 yards per carry average, a 3.34 yards per carry average after contact, a 59.6% carry success rate, a 22.4% missed tackle rate, and a 80.3 PFF grade, but in 2024 he had a 4.11 yards per carry average, a 2.72 yards per carry average after contact, a 50.9% carry success rate, a 15.8% missed tackle rate, and a 69.0 PFF grade. 

In 2025, the Rams may try to lessen his workload in hopes of getting Williams back to a higher level of efficiency. They drafted Blake Corum in the 3rd round of last year’s draft to potentially take some of the load off Williams, but he had an underwhelming rookie season, averaging just 3.59 yards per carry across 58 carries with 2.40 yards per carry after contact, a 43.1% carry success rate, and a long run of 12 yards. Corum could be better in his second season in the league though and, if he’s not, the Rams added Jarquez Hunter in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them added insurance. Both Corum and/or Hunter could cut into Williams’ workload this season to give him more of a breather, which could help him be more efficient. 

Corum and/or Hunter could also cut into Williams’ passing down role, as he’s also played a significant role in passing situations over the past two seasons, but has averaged just 0.58 yards per route run and 4.41 yards per target. Corum averaged 1.81 yards per route run as a rookie, but he only had 7 catches and ran 32 routes, so it’s a very small sample size. Hunter, meanwhile, had 68 catches in his collegiate career, a decent, but unspectacular number. This backfield has potential if they can figure out roles and get Williams back close to his 2023 form, but this group also has some downside if none of their backups develop and Williams doesn’t bounce back.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Rams also got a steal when they signed Alaric Jackson as an undrafted free agent in 2021. In four seasons in the league, he has finished with PFF grades of 70.2, 64.1, 66.2, and 78.3 in four seasons in the league, while making 29 starts in the past two seasons. Jackson is no longer on his rookie deal, but the Rams got a steal when they re-signed him to a 3-year, 56.3 million dollar deal ahead of free agency this off-season, when he almost definitely would have exceeded the 4-year, 82 million dollar deal that the lesser Dan Moore got if he had hit free agency. Jackson might not quite repeat his career best 2024 campaign in 2025, but he’s been a solid player throughout his career and is still in his prime in his age 27 season. 

Right guard Kevin Dotson was originally added via trade, but he too was a steal, as the Rams got him for a swap of late round picks and he has received PFF grades of 85.2 and 81.3 in two seasons with the Rams, while making 30 starts. That performance hasn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4 in three seasons with the Steelers before joining the Rams, but he has obviously taken his game to another level since being traded. He was kept as a free agent last off-season on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal that will be a steal if he continues performing at the same level. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect that to happen for at least one more season.

One mistake the Rams made on the offensive line was signing Jonah Jackson to a 3-year, 52.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Jackson missed significant time with injury in 2024, then got moved to center upon his return, and subsequently benched, playing just four games in total. However, the Rams were able to trade him and get out of the rest of his contract, so even that mistake didn’t hurt them very much. Steve Avila, a 2023 2nd round pick who was originally supposed to move from guard to center to accommodate Jackson, never actually saw any regular season action at center and had a 67.1 PFF grade in 10 starts at guard (7 games missed due to injury) last season, after a 61.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at guard as a rookie. Now going into his third season in the league, Avila looks likely to remain at guard long-term and could have his best season yet in 2025 if he can stay healthy.

With Avila sticking at guard, the Rams needed to find an upgrade at center after 2024 6th round pick Beaux Limmer had a 57.6 PFF grade in 14 starts last season. They did that by reuniting with Coleman Shelton, who spent 2019-2023 with the Rams. Shelton only finished above 60 on PFF in one of those seasons, but it was his final season in 2023 (64.5), when he made a then career high 17 starts and he repeated that season again in 2024 with the Bears, when he had a 66.4 PFF grade across 17 starts, earning a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal to return to the Rams. Shelton doesn’t have a high upside and is going into his age 30 season, but he could remain a decent starter and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Limmer, who will now be a reserve.

Rob Havenstein rounds out the offensive line at right tackle, entering his 11th season with the Rams at that spot. Havenstein has made 141 starts in 10 seasons, while finishing above 70 on PFF in eight of those seasons, including five straight, but he is heading into his age 33 season and could decline in 2024, perhaps significantly. The Rams’ depth is also a concern, with Limmer as the top reserve center, Justin Dedich as their top reserve guard and David Quessenberry as their top reserve tackle. Dedich is a 2024 undrafted free agent who had a 56.6 PFF grade across three starts as a rookie, while Quessenberry has 30 career starts, including 17 in 2021 when he had a 80.7 PFF grade, but he fell to a 58.4 PFF grade across 110 snaps last season and now is in his age 35 season. This is a talented offensive line overall, but it’s not without concerns.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Rams have had just one first round pick in the past nine drafts, as a result of trades for veterans and trades down for more picks. The Rams made that one first round pick count though, taking Jared Verse with the 19th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Verse finished his rookie year with a 86.2 PFF grade, 9th among edge defenders, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 16 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate, en route to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. It’s possible he’s not quite as efficient pressuring the quarterback again in 2025 because development isn’t always linear, but his sack total should go up and his ceiling is sky high. It’s likely he will develop into one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come, while contending for Defensive Player of the Year awards, even if he does happen to take a step back in year two.

The rest of this edge defender position is a concern though. A 2023 3rd round pick, Byron Young had a decent rookie season with a 63.5 PFF grade across 967 snaps, but took a step back in his second season in the league with a 59.9 PFF grade across 844 snaps. He could bounce back in 2025 and could even have his best season yet in his third season in the league, but he is an underwhelming starter, especially given how many snaps the Rams have had him play over the past two seasons.

Young will likely continue playing a heavy snap count, as the Rams don’t have much in the way of depth. Michael Hoecht, their top reserve a year ago, is no longer with the team. He only had a 61.3 PFF grade, but he was the only other Rams edge defender to play more than 100 snaps and he was replaced by a third round pick in Josaiah Stewart, who has more potential long-term, but could struggle in the short-term, especially if he has to play around the same snap count as Hoecht did last season (639 snaps). Other reserve options include Brennan Jackson, a 2024 5th round pick who played 47 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Hampton, a 2023 5th round pick who has played 78 snaps in two seasons in the league. Jared Verse significantly elevates the overall grade of this group, but the rest of this group is a concern.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Rams also have a pair of promising young interior defenders, 2023 3rd round pick Kobie Turner and 2024 2nd round pick Braden FIske. Turner finished last season with 8 sacks, 3 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate, while Fiske finished with 8.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate. Fiske struggled against the run, but Turner played well in that aspect as well and finished with a 74.9 PFF grade overall, 18th best among interior defenders. Turner also had an impressive rookie season in 2023, ranking 9th among interior defenders with a 83.8 PFF grade, while totaling 9 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Turner could easily develop into one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come, while Fiske could join him if he can improve as a run defender.

The Rams also added to this group this off-season by signing Poona Ford to a 3-year, 27.6 million dollar deal. Ford has finished above 70 on PFF five times in seven seasons in the league, with three seasons over 80, including a 85.1 PFF grade across 604 snaps last season. Ford is at his best against the run, but has also added 11.5 sacks, 29 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 101 career games, including 3 sacks, 7 hits, and a 6.4% pressure rate last season. He is now heading into his age 30 season, but even if he declines somewhat, he should still remain an above average player. He’s essentially replacing Bobby Brown, who was a solid run defender and had a 63.2 PFF grade overall last season, but he only had a 1.4% pressure rate. Ford figures to rotate heavily with Turner and Fiske and adds even more talent to what was already a strong position group.

With Turner, Fiske, and Ford as their top-3 options, the Rams don’t have much need for depth at the interior defender position, but injuries could strike and force their deeper reserves into more significant roles. Desjuan Johnson is a 2023 7th round pick who has played 222 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, Tyler Davis is a 2024 6th round pick who was mediocre with a 51.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps as a rookie, while Ty Robinson is a 5th round rookie. They aren’t great options, but this is still a talented group overall because of their top-3.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Another potential steal the Rams found is Omar Speights, who went undrafted last year, but became a starter in week 8 after Troy Reeder got hurt and he proved to be an immediate upgrade, finishing his rookie season with a 66.8 PFF grade across 419 snaps, as opposed to a 57.9 PFF grade across 372 snaps for Reeder. Speights is still unproven and his rookie season could prove to be a fluke, but he has the potential to be a decent every down starter long-term. Reeder returns and will at least compete for a starting job in 2025, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league, on an average of just 339 snaps per season, and he was only in the starting lineup out of desperation last season, so he’s not guaranteed to get his starting job back and, if he did, he would likely continue struggling, perhaps even more so, now in his age 31 season.

The Rams lost free agent Christian Rozeboom, who led this position with 828 snaps played last season, but he struggled with a 59.0 PFF grade. To replace him, the Rams signed Nate Landman, who figures to compete for a starting job and who would likely be an upgrade. The 2022 undrafted free agent has finished with PFF grades of 72.0 and 65.7 over the past two seasons respectively, over snap counts of 809 and 543 respectively. He is at his best against the run, with PFF grades of 85.4 and 73.9, while finishing below 60 in coverage in both seasons. At the very least, he should play a situational role as a run stopper, but he might end up in a bigger role than that, giving the alternatives. The Rams also used a 5th round pick on Chris Paul, but he figures to be a liability if forced into a significant role as a rookie. This is an underwhelming position group overall, but the Rams at least have some intriguing options. 

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Rams’ secondary remains essentially the same as last season, when they were a decent, but unspectacular group. Cobie Durant was their highest rated cornerback, although largely by default, as he had just a 63.7 PFF grade across 15 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Durant showed potential as a rookie with a 73.3 PFF grade across 281 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that into a larger role in his second season in the league, with a 56.9 PFF grade across 642 snaps, before taking a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024. In 2025, he could continue being decent, but he could also potentially regress.

Darious Williams was the Rams’ other outside cornerback last season and he was mediocre with a 60.0 PFF grade across 11 starts. He’s had a solid career, with six straight seasons of 60 or better on PFF, including three seasons above 70, but last season was the worst of those six seasons and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so he could continue declining. He did have a 79.5 PFF grade as recently as 2023, so he may have some bounce back potential, but his best days are almost definitely behind him.

In sub packages, safety Quentin Lake would most frequently move to the slot and between the two positions Lake led this secondary with 1,070 snaps played last season. The 2022 6th round pick flashed talent in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 71.7 and 71.2 across snap counts of 63 and 451 respectively, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role in 2024, finishing with a decent but underwhelming 62.9 PFF grade in 2024. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, so he could have some untapped potential, but most likely his 2025 season will be similar to his 2024 season.

Kamren Curl was the other starting safety. He was solid with a 66.2 PFF grade, which was actually the lowest single season grade of his 5-year career. The 2020 7th round pick has finished in the 60s on PFF in four of five seasons in the league and maxed out at 82.9 in 2022, though that will likely prove to be a fluke. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season and he should have another solid season, with the potential for more.

When Lake moves to the slot in sub packages, Kamren Kitchens comes in to take his spot at safety. The 2024 3rd round pick had a solid rookie season in a part-time role, finishing with a PFF grade of 67.7 across 514 snaps. He has the potential to take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025 and, if injuries knock out either of their starters, Kitchens seems prepared to step in and start for an extended period of time if needed. The Rams also have another second year safety, Jaylen McCollough. He had a 62.0 PFF grade across 336 snaps last season, which isn’t bad, but he didn’t play as well as Kitchens and he went undrafted, while Kitchens went in the 3rd round, so McCollough will almost definitely remain behind Kitchens on the depth chart.

At cornerback, the Rams have veteran Ahkello Witherspoon as a depth option, as well as 2022 6th round pick Derion Kendrick, who is coming back from a torn ACL that cost him all of 2024. Witherspoon has finished above 60 on PFF in six of eight seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70, while starting 62 of 90 games played over that stretch. He’s now going into his age 30 season and only had a 61.7 PFF grade across 493 snaps last season, but, as far as reserve options go, he’s a pretty good one. Kendrick, meanwhile, played snap counts of 483 and 857 in 2022 and 2023 before missing last season with injury, but he struggled with PFF grades of 43.7 and 59.8 respectively and now he’s coming off of a major injury, which hurts his projection further. He should be buried on the depth chart and only play in case of emergencies. This is likely to remain a decent, but unspectacular secondary in 2025.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Rams used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker in Joshua Karty. He finished his rookie year slightly below average, costing his team 2.80 points compared to an average kicker. He made 85.3% of his field goals, but had a relatively low level of difficulty on his kicks, attempting just 13 kicks of 40+ yards last season, missing 3 of them, while missing twice from inside 40. He still has a high upside though and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Rams finished last season with a 10-7 record, despite having the 10th most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league, including the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense. They should be healthier this season and their schedule looks likely to be easier, but they ranked just 16th in first down rate differential and 22nd in yards per play differential last season, which is more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. The Rams were a lot better down the stretch once they got fully healthy, but it is unrealistic to expect any team to be fully healthy for a whole season. Additionally, there is the issue of quarterback Matt Stafford’s age, now in his age 37 season, which is around when a lot of quarterbacks suffer significant declines. If that happened, that would obviously have a significant negative effect on this team. The Rams also have by far the toughest schedule of any team in their division.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in NFC West

Tennessee Titans 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Quarterback

The Titans made the playoffs in three straight seasons from 2019-2021, including an AFC Championship appearance, but they fell apart pretty quickly, finishing the 2022 season 7-10 and the 2023 season 6-11. After the 2023 season, the Titans decided to go in a new direction. They fired old school, defensive minded Head Coach Mike Vrabel, who was their coach for all three of their playoff appearances, and replaced him with a young offensive mind in Brian Callahan, hoping he would help develop 2023 2nd round pick Will Levis, who was set to be the full-time starter in his second season in the league in 2024. At the same time, the Titans moved on from long-time feature back Derrick Henry, opting for a younger, speedier back in Tony Pollard, and they spent big in free agency to add a #1 receiver in Calvin Ridley.

The results were not what the Titans were hoping for, as they fell even further to 3-14. Levis failed to develop in his second season in the league and was benched on multiple occasions for veteran backup Mason Rudolph, who wasn’t much better. The big issue for the Titans in recent years has been drafting. They haven’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2019, which coincidentally was the start of their 3-year playoff run. Since 2020, they haven’t drafted a single player in the first round who has proven to be worth the pick yet, taking several busts in the process. Former head coach Mike Vrabel did the best he could to get the most out of a roster devoid of talent in his final years with the team, but new head coach Brian Callahan could not do the same, resulting in last year’s terrible season.

The good news after a terrible season like that is you get a high draft pick, in the Titans’ case #1 overall, but this was one of the weaker drafts at the top in recent memory, so the timing of that #1 overall pick could have been better. Without a clear option at #1 overall, the Titans were faced with a choice atop the draft. They could have stayed put and taken the best non-quarterback in the draft, likely either edge defender Abdul Carter or wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, giving Will Levis another chance with hopefully a better team around him, with veteran insurance at quarterback being brought in just in case. They could have traded down with a team desperate for a quarterback, picking up a bunch of draft picks to build around Levis or whoever their long-term quarterback eventually ended up being. 

Ultimately, the Titans opted to stay put and take quarterback Cam Ward, starting over at the quarterback position with a prospect that has a high upside and that was definitely the top quarterback in the class, but that would not have been as highly ranked in some other recent quarterback classes. The Titans did not add a veteran quarterback this off-season, meaning their only other alternative to starting Ward week 1 is to continue starting Levis until Ward is ready, which seems unlikely, given that Levis has a QB rating of just 82.7 in 21 career starts. 

Ward has the traits to be a franchise quarterback long-term, but will definitely have some growing pains as a rookie, especially given the state of the roster around him, which is slightly improved compared to a year ago, but probably isn’t significantly improved. With Ward as the starter and Levis as the backup, this is likely to be one of the weaker quarterback rooms in the league this season, but they at least have upside at the position, if Ward proves to be ahead of schedule in his development.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Titans haven’t drafted a player in the first round who has proven to be worth that pick since 2019. While some of those players have been complete busts, the jury is still out on a few as well. This year’s first round pick, Cam Ward, is an obvious one that the jury is still out on, but additionally the jury is still out on their 2023 and 2024 first round picks. Needing to rebuild their offensive line, the Titans selected Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick in 2023 and then they selected JC Latham with the 7th overall pick in 2024.

Skoronski has made 31 starts at left guard over the past two seasons, but has been about a replacement level starter, with PFF grades of 61.6 and 60.3. Ideally, you’d want more than that out of a player selected 11th overall, especially one who plays guard, which tends to be a relatively easy position to find replacement level starters at, but Skoronski has the upside to take a big step forward in 2025, still only in his age 24 season. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but it’s at least a strong possibility and this offensive line would benefit significantly if that happened.

Latham, meanwhile, was also a replacement level starter as a rookie, with a 61.8 PFF grade in 17 starts at left tackle. Latham also has the upside to take a big step forward in 2025, especially since he will be moving to an easier position at right tackle. At left tackle, the Titans have one of the two big free agent signings they made on the offensive line, former Steeler Dan Moore, who signed on a 4-year, 82 million dollar deal. Moore looks like an overpay, however, as the 2021 4th round pick was about a replacement level left tackle through his four seasons in Pittsburgh, finishing with PFF grades of 57.8, 62.4, 51.8, and 67.2 across a total of 66 starts. Now in his age 27 season, Moore likely is who he is at this stage of his career and is unlikely to get significantly better.

At right guard, the Titans signed Kevin Zeitler, who only got a 1-year, 9 million dollar deal, but who has a chance to be a more impactful signing than Moore in 2025. A 13-year veteran, Zeitler has consistently been one of the best guards in the league throughout his career, finishing above 65 on PFF in every season, including eleven seasons above 70, and four seasons above 80, most recently a 86.5 PFF grade across 16 starts in 2024. Zeitler is now going into his age 35 season, so he could drop off significantly in 2025, compared to his 2024 campaign which was the 2nd highest ranked of his career, but there is a good chance he remains at least an above average starter.

At center, the Titans have Lloyd Cushenberry, who was a big signing last off-season, coming over from the Broncos on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal. Cushenberry had an impressive final season in Denver, finishing with a 73.2 PFF grade, but he was a one-year wonder, receiving grades of 40.5, 64.2, and 56.2 in his first three seasons in the league prior to his 2023 breakout season. In his first season in Tennessee in 2024, Cushenberry disappointed with a 55.4 PFF grade and then went down for the season after eight games with a torn achilles. Now going into 2025, it could take some time for Cushenberry to return to full health and, even if he does return to full health close to immediately, there is no guarantee he will bounce back to his 2023 form, which could prove to be a fluke, now having finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league.

Even with two new starters being added this off-season, the Titans still have questionable depth on the offensive line. Of the ten players who made starts on the offensive line last season, only four remain, with three of them being starters. The fourth is backup center Corey Levin, who had a 55.5 PFF grade across 133 snaps last season and has overall made just five starts in eight seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF just once. Other reserve options include 5th round rookie offensive tackle Jackson Slater, as well as free agent additions Brenden Jaimes, Blake Hance, and Oli Udoh, all of whom are underwhelming reserve options.

James, a 2021 5th round pick, has played just 274 snaps in four seasons in the league, while finishing below 60 on PFF in three of those seasons. Oli Udoh has made 19 starts in six seasons in the league, with 16 of them coming in 2021, when he had a 54.4 PFF grade. Blake Hance, meanwhile, has made just ten starts in six seasons in the league, with eight of them coming in 2021, when he had a 56.7 PFF grade. This offensive line should be better than last season by default, but most of their starters could be replacement level starters, while their depth options are underwhelming as well.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Calvin Ridley was a big addition for the Titans last off-season. He had a solid first season in Tennessee, finishing with a 64/1017/4 slash line and 1.86 yards per route run, though he might not have quite been good enough to justify a contract that made him the 15th highest paid wide receiver in the league. The bigger problem was the rest of the Titans’ receiving corps though, as they didn’t have a single pass catcher aside from Ridley surpass 500 yards receiving.

This off-season, they overhauled their wide receiver room, losing every wide receiver except Ridley who had more than 100 yards receiving last season, but they aren’t necessarily better this season, as their replacements are an underwhelming bunch consisting of veteran additions Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett and a pair of 4th round rookies in Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. Tyler Lockett is by far the most accomplished of the bunch, averaging 1.69 yards per route run and a 66/859/6 slash line in 10 seasons in the league, but that fell to a 1.10 yards per route run average and a 49/600/2 slash line in 2024 and now he heads into his age 33 season. His best days are almost definitely behind him and he is likely to continue struggling in 2025. Van Jefferson, meanwhile, has just a career average of 1.06 yards per route run, including 0.64 yards per route run over the past two seasons. The two rookies are also unlikely to contribute in any sort of significant positive way in year one. 

The Titans still have Treylon Burks, who has been a bust since being selected in the first round in 2022, with 53 total catches and 1.17 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, including 4 catches and 0.43 yards per route run last season. He was buried on the depth chart last season, even in a weak position group and, even in another weak position group this season, that could easily remain the case. He’s only going into his age 25 season and could have some theoretical upside, but he is running out of time to display that upside.

Calvin Ridley will obviously remain the #1 option. Last season was his third 1000+ yard season of his past five seasons, with the exceptions being an injury plagued 2021 season and a 2022 season lost to suspension, and he has a solid career average of 1.84 yards per route run. The problem is he’s now going into his age 31 season and could start to decline in 2025, which would be a big blow to an already concerning wide receiver group. He should remain their #1 wide receiver by default by a wide margin and could benefit from Cam Ward being added, but he might not be as effective as he was last season.

With the Titans’ issues at wide receiver last season, it’s unsurprising that the Titans relied heavily on tight ends in the passing game last season, ranking 11th in the NFL with 25.6% of their targets going to tight ends, a number that could go up in 2025, with the Titans’ wide receiver group now arguably worse than a year ago. The Titans used three different tight ends for significant roles in the passing game, with Chig Okonkwo, Josh Whyle, and Nick Vannett receiving 70, 37, and 20 targets respectively and averaging 1.25 yards per route run, 1.42 yards per route run, and 1.39 yards per route run respectively.

Vannett is no longer with the team, replaced by 4th round rookie Gunnar Helm, who could have a similar role in year one as Vannett, with the upside for more. Okonkwo was the top tight end last season and, while he had the lowest yards per route run average, the 2022 4th round pick has averaged 1.52 yards per route run in three seasons in the league and could see his 2025 average be closer to his career average than his 2024 average. Josh Whyle, a 2023 5th round pick, should remain the #2 tight end. He has averaged 1.47 yards per route run in two seasons in the league and should have a similar season in 2025. A decent tight end room helps somewhat, but the Titans’ lack of depth at the wide receiver position figures to be a big problem in 2025.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Tony Pollard was the Titans’ lead back last season with 260 carries. He only averaged 4.15 yards per carry, after averaging 3.99 yards per carry on 252 carries in his final season in Dallas in 2023, but Pollard did average 5.13 yards per carry across his first four seasons in the league from 2019-2022. Pollard only averaged 128 carries per season in those four seasons though, with a maximum of 193 carries. He benefited from being on a better Dallas offense in those seasons than the offense he is on in Tennessee, but it’s also very likely that Pollard would benefit from a smaller workload.

The Titans have mentioned giving him that smaller workload, which could be achieved if multiple things happen. For one, the Titans will need backup Tyjae Spears to stay healthy, as he averaged 7.0 carries per game in the 12 games he played last season, but missed five games, leading to Pollard averaging 22.0 carries per game in his absence, as opposed to 13.6 when both were healthy. The Titans could also get a third back involved in a bigger role, most likely 6th round rookie Kalel Mullings, a bigger back at 6-2 226, as opposed to the 6-0 215 Pollard and the 5-11 195 Spears. Mullings might not be ready for a big role in year one, but he at least has upside.

Mullings is not much of a pass catcher, with eight catches in his entire collegiate career, so both Spears and Pollard will remain involved in the passing game, perhaps even more so, given the state of the Titans’ receiving corps. Pollard had 57 targets to Spears’ 35 last season, but that is largely because Pollard played 16 games, to 12 for Spears. Spears was more efficient on his targets, taking them for 1.34 yards per route run and a 30/224/1 slash line, as opposed to 0.79 yards per route run and a 41/238/0 slash line for Pollard. Pollard does have a 1.12 yards per route run average for his career, but Spears has averaged 1.30 yards per route run in two seasons since going in the 3rd round in 2023, so he is the better pass catching option. If he can stay healthier, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Spears outproduce Pollard as a pass catcher. This is a decent, but unspectacular backfield overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Titans’ offense was a mess last season, their defense was actually decent, ranking 8th in yards per play allowed and 12th in first down rate allowed. The strength of the defense was the interior defender position, where all of their top-3 interior defenders finished with PFF grades above 70, with Jeffery Simmons receiving a 80.0 PFF grade across 806 snaps (10th among interior defenders on PFF), T’Vondre Sweat receiving a 76.1 PFF grade across 699 snaps (15th among interior defenders on PFF), and Sebastian Joseph-Day receiving a 70.2 PFF grade across 483 snaps (25th among interior defenders on PFF).

For Simmons, the dominant season was not surprising, as he has now finished above 80 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league. He’s been a bit inconsistent, receiving grades of 70.4, 71.9, and 68.4 respectively in his other three seasons, but even at his worst he is still an above average starter, and he is still very much in his prime in his age 28 season. An above average run defender and pass rusher, Simmons is one of the best all-around interior defenders in the league. 

Sweat could have another impressive season in 2025 as well, as he was only a 2nd round rookie last season and has a very high upside long-term. Sebastian Joseph-Day is the one with the highest possibility to regress, as the veteran interior defender has only finished above 70 on PFF twice in seven seasons in the league and now is going into his age 30 season. The flip side of that is he has only finished below 60 once in those seven seasons, so, barring a significant decline, he should remain at least a solid rotational player, but the odds are against him repeating last season’s performance.

With those three leading the way, there wasn’t much need for anyone else to play a significant role at the interior defender position, with James Lynch (243 snaps) and Keondre Coburn (125 snaps) being the only other two interior defenders to see snaps for the Titans in 2024, receiving PFF grades of 60.1 and 45.1 respectively. Both return for 2025 and could continue being deep reserves, though the Titans did add veteran journeyman Carlos Watkins as competition.

Watkins has been mostly decent in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in five of eight seasons in the league, albeit on an average of 271 snaps per season. He won’t need to play more snaps than that for the Titans in 2025, but he is now going into his age 32 season, so his age is becoming a concern. Lynch, meanwhile, has played just 882 snaps in five seasons in the league since being a 2020 a 4th round pick, while Coburn has played just 232 snaps in two seasons in the league since being a 2023 6th round pick. Given the talent at the top of the Titans’ interior defender depth, their lack of deep reserves isn’t a huge concern.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Titans did lose their top edge defender, Harold Landry, this off-season, after he received a 70.5 PFF grade across 878 snaps last season, the 5th most snaps played by any edge defender in the league last season. Landry was an underwhelming pass rusher, totaling 9 sacks, but only 6 hits and a 7.1% pressure rate, but he excelled as a run defender, ranking 6th among edge defenders on PFF in run defense grade. 

Landry will be replaced by free agent addition Dre’Mont Jones, who is kind of an opposite player, finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all six seasons in the league, but finishing below 60 in run defense grade in four of those six seasons. He only had 4 sacks last season, but added 10 hits and a 12.0% pressure rate. He’s a downgrade from Landry overall though, as he finished with just a 54.3 PFF grade overall last season, his third season below 60 overall in the past four seasons.

Jones will start opposite Arden Key, who was pretty good with a 69.7 PFF grade across 734 snaps last season, receiving grades above 60 for both his run defense and his pass rush. Key has now received PFF grades over 60 in four straight seasons, primarily playing well as a pass rusher, with 23.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 67 games over that stretch, but also developing into a capable run defender as well. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Key in 2025.

With Landry and Key both playing heavy snap counts last season, the Titans didn’t have much need for depth at the edge defender good, which is good because their top-2 reserves in terms of snaps played, Jaylen Harrell (286 snaps) and Ali Gaye (177 snaps), struggled mightily with PFF grades of 38.9 and 38.3 respectively, while combining for just a 4.0% pressure rate. With Landry gone and Dre’Mont Jones unlikely to play the same snap count as Landry did, the Titans needed to improve their edge defender depth and they sought to improve in that area this off-season by signing veteran Lorenzo Carter and using a second round pick on Oluwafemi Oladejo.

Oladejo could be a useful rotational player even as a rookie, while Carter is an underwhelming veteran, but should be an upgrade by default. In seven seasons in the league, Carter finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, but he fell to a 43.0 PFF grade across 410 snaps last season and now is going into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, even if he isn’t quite as bad in 2025 as he was in 2024. Swapping out Landry for Jones is a downgrade, but the Titans at least have better edge defender depth this season than last, albeit by default. 

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The position the Titans lost the most at this off-season was linebacker, as all five linebackers who played at least 200 snaps for them last season are no longer with the team. In their absence, the Titans’ only notable addition was Cody Barton, who is a decent, but unspectacular option. Barton has been a starter for the past three seasons, with snap counts of 894, 844, and 1,053 and he has mostly been decent, with PFF grades of 63.6, 53.9, and 66.1 respectively. The bigger problem is the other linebacker spot. 

Cedric Gray is probably the favorite to start there, but the 2024 4th round pick struggled with a 36.8 PFF grade across 48 snaps as a rookie. The Titans other options include 2024 7th round pick James Williams, who had a 51.9 PFF grade across 111 snaps as a rookie, Otis Reese, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has played just 178 career snaps on defense, Amari Burney, a 2023 6th round pick who has played just 190 career snaps on defense, Curtis Jacobs, a 2024 undrafted free agent who had a 39.8 PFF grade across 23 snaps as a rookie, and 2023 undrafted free agent Anfernee Orji, who had a 55.2 PFF grade in the first 147 snaps of his career last season. Whoever starts at the other linebacker spot figures to be a liability. With Cody Barton as the only competent linebacker on the roster, this is a concerning position group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Titans looked like they had a good cornerback trio going into last season, but Chidobe Awuzie missed 9 games due to injury, L’Jarius Sneed missed 12 games, and while Roger McCreary only missed two, he had a down year compared to 2023. Going into 2025, Awuzie is no longer on the team, but Sneed should be healthier, while McCreary has bounce back potential. Sneed was added in a sign and trade last off-season at the price of a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal and a third round pick and, prior to last year’s lost season due to injury, he had PFF grades of 76.1 and 71.1 in his last two healthy seasons in 2022 and 2023 (33 starts). Still only in his age 28 season, Sneed has a good chance to bounce back in 2025 if he’s healthy, though that is not a guarantee, given the severity of his injury.

McCreary, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and seemed to break out in 2023 with a 71.3 PFF grade, after a 62.6 PFF grade as a rookie, but he then regressed back to a 61.3 PFF grade in 2024. Still, he’s only in his age 25 season and has always had a high upside, so he has a good chance to bounce back. With all of the issues the Titans had at cornerback last season, it was actually 5th round rookie Jarvis Brownlee who led this group in snaps with 911 and he is likely the favorite for the #3 cornerback job in 2025, with Awuzie no longer on the team, but Brownlee did struggle with a 59.4 PFF grade last season and isn’t a guarantee to take a step forward this season, in his second season in the league.

Brownlee’s primary competition for the #3 cornerback job is Darrell Baker, a 2022 undrafted free agent who had a 65.5 PFF grade across 626 snaps last season, after receiving a 52.9 PFF grade across 469 snaps in the first action of his career in 2023. He might be a better option, but he’s still very unproven. The Titans also have veteran journeyman Amani Oruwariye, who hasn’t finished above 60 on PFF since 2019 and who played just 286 snaps last season, as well as 6th round rookie Marcus Harris, who is unlikely to be ready to play a significant role as a rookie.

At safety, the Titans started last season with a solid duo of Amani Hooker and Quandre Diggs, who finished with PFF grades of 65.1 and 73.2 respectively, but Diggs missed the final nine games of the season and was replaced by Daryl Worley, who was an obvious downgrade. This season, Hooker remains, but Diggs and Worley are gone and Xavier Woods was added to start next to Hooker. Woods finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first seven seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70 and a career best 80.3 PFF grade as recently as 2023, but he fell to a career worst 57.0 PFF grade in 2024. Woods may have some bounce back potential, but he’s now going into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and, if he bounces back, it won’t be all the way back to his 2023 form.

Hooker, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league and he’s still in his prime in his age 27 season, though he has missed 20 games with injury over the past four seasons. If he misses more time this season, or if Woods misses time, the Titans would likely turn to either Mike Brown, a 2022 undrafted free agent who had a 69.2 PFF grade across 384 snaps last season, after a 60.3 PFF grade across 113 snaps in the first action of his career in 2023, or they could turn to 3rd round rookie Kevin Winston. Brown is a solid backup, but could struggle if forced into significant action as a starter, while Winston has potential, but probably is too raw to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. The Titans’ secondary should be better due to the return of L’Jarius Sneed from injury, but this group still has some concerns. 

Grade: B

Kicker

The Titans had Nick Folk as their kicker last season and he ranked second in the NFL with 10.48 points above average, but they opted not to bring him back, ahead of his age 41 season in 2025. Instead, the Titans signed veteran journeyman Joey Slye, who figures to be a big downgrade. The 6-year veteran has finished below average in four of six seasons in the league, costing his teams a total of 18.27 points below average in his career. He will likely continue to struggle in 2025.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Titans added quarterback Cam Ward with the #1 overall pick in the draft and made some off-season additions, but Ward is very raw as far as #1 overall pick quarterbacks go, they had some significant off-season losses, particularly on defense, and this roster is still underwhelming overall. They might not be quite as bad as they were a year ago, especially since they have one of the easiest schedules in the league, but they figure to remain one the worst teams in the league.

Update: The Titans have by far the easiest schedule in the division and Cam Ward has looked ahead of schedule in training camp and the pre-season. After some reanalysis on how much of an immediate impact rookies at different positions make, I give the Titans a slight edge in a wide open division.

Prediction: 7-10, 1st in AFC South

Las Vegas Raiders 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

The Raiders have been one of the least successful franchises in the league over the past couple decades, with just two winning seasons out of the last 22 and no playoff victories over that time span. This off-season, the Raiders tried an aggressive win now approach, perhaps in an attempt for some relevance, even though they were not close to being in contention, finishing the 2024 season with a 4-13 record, while ranking 25th in yards per play differential and 23rd in first down rate differential. 

The Raiders first started by hiring Pete Carroll as their head coach, opting to go with the experienced, proven, but soon-to-be-74-year-old Carroll rather than a young, up and coming coach who could be around for the long haul. Perhaps motivated by Carroll not wanting to wait around through a slower build, the Raiders then traded a third round pick for Geno Smith, Carroll’s former quarterback with the Seahawks, who was one of the best quarterbacks available this off-season, but is heading into his age 35 season and needed a 2-year, 75 million dollar extension to be kept past this season. The Raiders then used their first round pick, 6th overall, on running back Ashton Jeanty, who has the talent to make the most immediate impact of any rookie this year, but plays a position with a significantly shorter career span than most, making his selection another short-term, win now move.

Smith obviously elevates the Raiders’ floor at the quarterback position, completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 35 interceptions in 49 starts over the past three seasons, as opposed to the 64.6% completion, 6.48 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions that Raiders quarterback combined to throw for last season, but, given his age, he will likely decline in the next few years and, even if he doesn’t, he isn’t the type of quarterback who can lead a team on a deep playoff run without a really talented roster around him, a talented roster that gets a lot more difficult to build when you have a quarterback making as much annually as Smith does. The only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers and Smith’s cap hit is projected to be above that 11% cutoff in two of the next three seasons.

Smith will be backed up by Aidan O’Connell, who was probably the most successful of the three quarterbacks who started for the Raiders last season, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 starts. A 4th round pick in 2023, O’Connell also made 10 starts as a rookie and completed 62.1% of his passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He likely will never develop into a starting caliber quarterback, but he could prove to be a useful backup long-term. The Raiders also added long-term competition for him by taking Cam Miller in the 6th round, but he is likely going to be the third quarterback in his first season in the league. This Raiders’ quarterback room is better than a year ago, but it’s still probably about average.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Raiders used their 6th overall pick on running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is one of the best running back prospects of the past decade and plays a position that frequently comes into the NFL and makes a big impact right away. The downside is he plays a position that is usually pretty easy to find, either through cheap free agent signings or mid-round draft picks, and he plays a position with a high injury risk and a short long-term career span, but the Raiders liked Jeanty’s ability to impact this offense immediately so much that they were willing to overlook the downsides of taking a running back early.

Jeanty does fill a massive position of need for the Raiders, as they ranked 31st in carries, 32nd in rushing yards, and 32nd in yards per carry last season. They added Raheem Mostert earlier in the off-season, but he’s going into his age 33 season and is a backup at this stage of his career. Mostert had averaged 5.21 yards per carry in his previous six seasons prior to last season, but that came on just 111 carries per season, with 34 games missed due to injury over that stretch, and last season his yards per carry average fell all the way to 3.27 across 85 carries, so he is likely nearing the end of his line.

Mostert will compete with top holdover Sincere McCormick for the #2 running back job. McCormick went undrafted in 2022 and never had a carry until week 12 of last season, but he showed some potential in a very limited sample size with a 4.69 YPC average across 39 carries. Whoever wins the backup job will likely only see a few carries here and there with Jeanty as the clear lead back and, if Jeanty misses time with injury, any of the backups would probably be part of a timeshare in his absence.

The Raiders also still have Zamir White, who started the season as the lead back last season, but struggled mightily with a 2.82 YPC average and a league worst 26.2% carry success rate last season, leading to him being benched down the stretch and only finishing with 65 carries. The 2022 4th round pick showed some promise with 4.31 YPC across 121 carries in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, but he couldn’t translate that into a larger role. He may find himself as part of a committee if Jeanty misses time, but he is probably behind both McCormick and Mostert on the depth chart as of this writing. The Raiders also have 2024 6th round pick Dylan Laube, but he didn’t play a snap as a rookie, even with the Raiders’ lack of other good options, which isn’t a good sign for him long-term.

One concern with this backfield is the lack of a clear passing down back. Jeanty wasn’t used in the passing game much at the collegiate level and, given how much of a workload he figures to get on early downs, having another back come in for him in obvious passing situations to give him a rest makes sense, but Mostert has a career 0.90 yards per route run average, White has a career 0.81 yards per route run average, and, while McCormick has a career 1.16 yards per route run average, that is across just 25 routes. Mostert will probably get the first crack at the passing down role due to experience, but Jeanty will probably stay on the field for a fair share of passing downs as well and the Raiders may opt to just not use running backs heavily in the passing game. Ashton Jeanty significantly upgrades this backfield, but their lack of depth behind him, particularly pass catching depth, is a bit of a concern.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Despite the Raiders’ issues at quarterback last season, they did have a pair of 1000+ yard receivers, one of just two teams in the league with a pair of 1000+ yard receivers. That was in large part due to the lack of depth the Raiders had in terms of pass catchers, as tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers accounted for 47.6% of the team’s targets. The rest of the Raiders ‘ receiving corps isn’t significantly improved this season, so Bowers and Meyers should continue having huge target shares, this time with an improved passer under center.

Last season was Meyers first 1000+ year season of his 6-year career (87/1027/4), but his 1.76 yards per route run average was in line with his career 1.72 yards per route run average and he’s had some solid seasons in the past, finishing with between 729 and 866 receiving yards in each of the four seasons prior to last season. Given his projected high target share and his improved quarterback situation, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Meyers set a new career high in receiving yardage this season. 

Bowers, meanwhile, was the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and entered the league as one of the best receiving tight end prospects in recent memory, which he backed up as a rookie with a 112/1194/5 slash line and 2.02 yards per route run. Another year more experienced, with an upgrade under center, and again projected for a huge target share, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bowers exceed last season’s numbers either.

The Raiders did attempt to improve their receiving corps by using 2nd, 4th, and 6th round picks on wide receivers Jack Bech, Dont’e Thornton, and Tommy Mellott, though it is unclear if any of them will be able to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. Bech has the best chance to do so, given that he was drafted the highest, and will almost definitely be a starter, but he will be a distant third in the target pecking order at best. The Raiders also added Collin Johnson this off-season, but he has just 31 catches in 38 career games with a career 1.20 yards per route run average.

Tre Tucker was third on the team with 81 targets last season, but he managed just a 47/539/3 slash line with 0.84 yards per route run. The 2023 3rd round pick showed some promise in a limited role as a rookie with 1.48 yards per route run, but couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He may still have some untapped upside, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the rookie Bech ended up out-producing him in 2025, making Bech the nominal #2 receiver.

Backup tight end Michael Mayer will probably continue having at least somewhat of a role, after receiving 32 targets last season, but he only turned that into a 21/156/0 slash line, with 0.67 yards per route run. Mayer was a 2023 2nd round pick who showed some promise as a rookie, with a 1.11 yards per route run average, so he could be better in 2025, but he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot yet and might never do so. The Raiders have a pair of talented pass catchers, but this is a very top heavy position group.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Raiders’ offensive line mostly stays the same as last season, when they were a decent unit, ranking 14th in pass block grade and 20th in run block grade on PFF. The one major change is their primary starting center, Andre James, is no longer with the team, but he missed 6 starts last season and was their worst regular starter with a 55.6 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed. Jackson Powers-Johnson, who moved from guard to center when James was out last season, will be the full-time center this season, which is a better spot for him because that was his collegiate position. Powers-Johnson, a 2024 2nd round pick, had a decent rookie year with a 63.9 PFF grade in 14 starts and, now back at his natural position, he has a good chance to take a step forward in his second season in the league, potentially a big step forward.

When Powers-Johnson moved to center last season, Jordan Meredith took his place at guard. Meredith went undrafted in 2020 and only played 134 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, but he played surprisingly very well for the Raiders last season in eight starts, with a 80.8 PFF grade. It came in a small sample size and there is a good chance he regresses and cannot translate that to a season-long role, but he also still has a good chance to be at least a capable starter at worst.

Dylan Parham remains as the other guard. A 2022 3rd round pick, Parham also had a surprisingly good season in 2024, with a 74.3 PFF grade in 15 starts, after PFF grades of 61.9 and 60.4 in his first two seasons in the league (14 starts). His 2024 season wasn’t nearly as surprising as Meredith’s though, as he was a relatively high draft pick who saw significant action in his first two seasons in the league, so he has a better chance of continuing to play at the same level in 2025 than Meredith does.

At tackle, Kolton Miller and DJ Glaze remain as the starters on the left and right sides respectively. Miller was the Raiders’ best offensive lineman last season and has been for several years. The 2018 1st round pick took a couple years to develop, but he has received PFF grades of 70 or higher in five straight seasons, with four straight seasons over 80, including a 80.6 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2024. Miller is now heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but he’s starting from such a big base point that, even if he declines somewhat in 2025, he would still likely remain an at least an above average starting option. Glaze, meanwhile, was a 2024 3rd round pick who had a decent 66.1 PFF grade in 14 starts as a rookie and could take a step forward in his second season in the league.

To improve their depth, the Raiders used a pair of third round picks on offensive linemen, taking Charles Grant and Caleb Rogers. Grant will compete for the swing tackle job with Thayer Munford, a 2022 7th round pick who had made 18 starts in three seasons in the league, with mixed results, as he’s had PFF grades of 63.2, 74.1, and 45.9. Rogers, meanwhile, will probably be the primary backup center, as the Raiders don’t have another player aside from the starter Jackson Powers-Johnson who has ever played a snap at center in the NFL. 

Rogers could also play guard, but at guard he would have to compete with another off-season addition, veteran Alex Cappa. Cappa signed a 2-year, 11.02 million dollar deal and has made 96 starts over the past six seasons, so he would probably start at guard ahead of Rogers if need be, but Cappa fell to a 50.5 PFF grade across 17 starts last season, after five straight seasons above 60 on PFF prior to last season, so there is a good reason he had to settle for being a backup this off-season. This is a solid offensive line overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Raiders were actually pretty solid on defense last season, ranking 14th in yards per play allowed and 7th in first down rate allowed, but they didn’t bring back 6 of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last season and, as a result, could struggle to repeat last season’s performance. If there is one reason to be optimistic about this defense it’s the fact that they should be healthier, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury on defense of any team in the league last season.

The edge defender position was probably hardest hit. Malcolm Koonce, expected to be a starter, missed the entire season, while fellow starter and top edge defender Maxx Crosby missed five games and seemed to be limited even when on the field. Koonce, a 2021 3rd round pick, had a mini breakout season in 2023 with a 81.3 PFF grade across 501 snaps, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher with 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate. He’s a complete one-year wonder, only playing 116 snaps in his first two seasons in the league before his breakout 2023 campaign, and, now coming off of a significant injury complicates his projection further, but he’s still young in his age 27 season and, even if he can’t repeat his 2023 campaign in 2025, he still has a good chance to be an above average player.

Crosby, meanwhile, is one of the best and most durable edge defenders in the league when healthy. In five seasons in the league prior to last season, Crosby never missed a game, while ranking 5th, 4th, 1st, and 1st in among edge defenders in snaps played in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively and ranking 2nd, 4th, and 4th among edge defenders in PFF grade in 2021, 2022, and 2023, exceeding 90 on PFF in all three seasons and totaling 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 51 games over that stretch. In 2024, he still played a high snap count for the amount of games he played (766), but he fell to a 74.3 PFF grade, with 7.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. Still in his age 28 season, Crosby has obvious bounce back potential in 2025 if he can stay healthy, which his history suggests he can.

With Koonce missing the season and Crosby missing time as well, 2023 7th overall pick Tyree Wilson stepped up, with a 66.7 PFF grade across 524 snaps, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate. That might not seem like much, especially given how highly Wilson was drafted, but Wilson struggled mightily with a 47.1 PFF grade across 493 snaps as a rookie, so last season was a big step forward for him. He has always had a huge upside and has likely permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a solid rotational player, with the upside for more. He will likely split snaps with Koonce, while Crosby continues rarely coming off the field. 

Charles Snowden (405 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (508 snaps) also had decent seasons as rotational players last season, with PFF grades of 60.5 and 63.0 respectively. Chaisson is no longer with the team, but Snowden remains. He is a 2021 undrafted free agent who only played 6 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season, but he should be a decent deep reserve at the very least, which is all the Raiders should need him for as long as they stay relatively healthy at this position this season. At full strength, this looks like one of the best edge defender groups in the NFL.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Raiders should also get a healthier season out of Christian Wilkins, who was limited to just 246 snaps in 5 games by injury. In his absence, none of the Raiders’ other interior defenders finished above 60 on PFF. Wilkins is now going into his age 30 season and recovery reportedly has not gone as smoothly as the Raiders would have liked, but he still has a chance to return in time for the 2025 season and, even if he’s not quite at his best, he should be a welcome re-addition. A first round pick in 2019, Wilkins has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league and has finished above 70 in four straight seasons, including a 74.8 PFF grade before going down last season. 

Adam Butler and Jonah Laulu are the Raiders’ top returning interior defenders in terms of snaps played, with 856 and 474 respectively, and both should continue having roles in 2025. Butler was a decent pass rusher last season, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 6.0% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run. That’s largely in line with how he’s played throughout his eight seasons in the league, as he has 27 sacks, 24 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate in 114 career games, but has only finished above 60 against the run once. Now going into his age 31 season, Butler’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily decline from an already pretty low base point.

Laulu, meanwhile, is a 2024 7th round pick who didn’t prove he shouldn’t have fallen that far in the draft as a rookie. He will likely continue struggling in 2025. The Raiders also added veteran Leki Fotu through free agency and used 4th and 6th round picks on Tonka Hemingway and JJ Pegues, but all of them are underwhelming options. Hemingway and Pegues were not highly drafted prospects, while Fotu has finished below 50 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, on an average of just 299 snaps per season. Outside of Christian Wilkins, who is turning 30 and coming off of a major injury, the Raiders are very thin at the interior defender position.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Raiders’ top-2 linebackers from a year ago, Robert Spillane (1,093 snaps) and Divine Deablo (689 snaps) are no longer with the team, and their replacements, Devin White, Elandon Roberts, and Jaylon Smith, are very underwhelming. White was the 5th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and played 973 snaps per season in the first five seasons of his career in Tampa Bay, but he finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons and, after leaving Tampa Bay, he had a hard time finding another team willing to give him significant playing time, as he played just 176 snaps in 2024, while spending time with the Eagles and Texans, and he once again finished below 60 on PFF.

Roberts has been a solid run defender in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in six of nine seasons in the league and finishing above 70 in three of nine seasons, including back-to-back seasons in 2023 and 2024, but he has only played 469 snaps per season in his career, with a maximum of 676, he has only finished above 60 in pass defense just once, and now he’s going into his age 31 season. He could remain a solid situational linebacker, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s highly unlikely to be anything more than a situational player.

Smith played at a high level early in his career, but injuries detailed his career. He has just one season above 60 since 2019, while spending time with six different teams over that stretch, and he has played just 25 snaps over the past two seasons, with no snaps played in 2024. Now going into his age 31 season, Smith is highly unlikely to bounce back. The Raiders also have Tommy Eichenberg, a 2024 5th round rookie who struggled mightily on 78 snaps as a rookie, and 7th round rookie Cody Lindenberg, who would likely if he was forced into a significant role as a rookie. This is a very underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Raiders also lost significant players in the secondary this off-season. At cornerback, Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs are gone, replaced by Eric Stokes, a mediocre veteran option, and Darien Porter, a third round rookie. Stokes and Porter will compete for roles with mediocre holdovers Jakorian Bennett, Darnay Holmes, and Decamarion Richardson. Stokes was a first round pick in 2021 and had a solid rookie season, with a 66.3 PFF grade across 934 snaps, but injuries limited him to 587 snaps in 12 games in his next two seasons and, while he played all 17 games last year and had a decent 61.3 PFF grade, he wasn’t a full-time player, only playing 587 snaps. Stokes is still only in his age 26 season and still has theoretical upside, but he’s an underwhelming starting option.

Despite that, Stokes is actually probably the Raiders’ best cornerback. Porter has long-term potential, but might be too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. Decamarion Richardson had a 45.6 PFF grade across 559 snaps as a 4th round rookie last season and, while he could be better in his second season in the league, he has a long way to go to be even an average starter. Jakorian Bennett was a 4th round pick in 2023 and has PFF grades of 42.4 and 58.6 across snap counts of 361 and 459 in two seasons in the league. Darnay Holmes was a 2020 4th round pick and has finished above 60 just once in five seasons in the league, while only playing 421 snaps over the past two seasons combined. This is arguably the worst cornerback group in the NFL.

Things are only marginally better at safety. Trevon Moehrig, who had a 67.5 PFF grade across 1,099 snaps last season, is no longer with the team and, while his replacement Jeremy Chinn had a similar season last season with a 69.0 PFF grade across 1,020 snaps, he has been significantly less consistent in his career than Moehrig, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league. Meanwhile, Isaiah Pola-Mao will remain the other starting safety, even though he struggled with a 54.2 PFF grade across 952 snaps last season, due to the lack of another option. A 2022 undrafted free agent, Pola-Mao only played 211 snaps in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season and is unlikely to be any better in 2025 than he was in 2024.

Other safety options include Thomas Harper, a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 191 snaps as a rookie, Chris Smith, a 2023 5th round pick who has played just 33 snaps in two seasons in the league, and Lonnie Johnson, a veteran going into his age 30 season who has played just 301 snaps total in the last three seasons. Overall, this looks like one of the worst secondaries in the league, with very little redeeming qualities.

Grade: C

Kicker

Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league in recent years. He finished slightly below average by 0.62 points last season, but that came after a four straight year stretch of being above average, accumulating 25.41 points above average over that stretch. Carlson is now heading into his age 30 season, but kickers are often effective into their 30s, so I wouldn’t say he is on the decline. He could easily bounce back from his worst season in years.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Raiders’ offense should be significantly improved by adding Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, but their defense lost a lot this off-season and looks like a below average unit. The Raiders also play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, with each of the other three teams making the post-season last season and looking likely to at least contend for the post-season in 2025, so, even if the Raiders do take a big step forward this season, they are still probably the worst team in their division.

Update: After some reanalysis on how much of an immediate impact rookies at different positions make, I have moved my win total for the Raiders up.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC West

Denver Broncos 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Broncos

Quarterback

Going into 2024, the Broncos looked like they could be one of the worst teams in the league. A failed trade for Russell Wilson cost them a pair of first and a pair of second round picks and, even though he wasn’t even on the roster anymore, Wilson was on the Broncos’ cap for 53 million in 2024. The Broncos also traded away a first and second round pick to get head coach Sean Payton, who didn’t seem to move the needle in his first season with the team in 2023. On top of that, the Broncos used another first round pick to draft Wilson’s replacement, Bo Nix, in the 2024 NFL Draft. With all of those resources spent on the quarterback and head coach, there wasn’t a lot left over for the rest of this roster.

However, head coach Sean Payton and his defensive coordinator Vance Joseph got the most out of this roster in 2024, including quarterback Bo Nix, who exceeded expectations as a rookie. The result is the Broncos made a surprise playoff appearance at 10-7 and, while they were blown out by the Bills in that playoff appearance, this team was clearly ahead of schedule. With their cap clearing out somewhat this off-season, the Broncos had some money to spend to fill out some holes on this roster.

There are some reasons to be concerned the Broncos might not be able to make it back to the post-season in 2025, even with the additions they made this off-season. For one, they figure to have more injuries, after having the 6th fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league last season. Their injury situation was even better than that suggests, as their top-4 players on offense and on defense in terms of PFF grade last season missed a combined two games, so what few injuries they had did not significantly impact their best players. The Broncos are also starting from a lower base point than their record suggests, ranking 12th in yards per play differential and 15th in first down rate differential, which is even worse if you take out their week 18 win over the Chiefs’ backups, in which the Broncos won the first down rate battle by 14.71% and the yards per play battle by 2.97. 

Beyond the Broncos’ off-season additions, if there is a reason to expect the Broncos to make it back to the post-season, despite the aforementioned things working against them, it is continued development from Bo Nix. Not only did Nix complete 66.3% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions as a rookie, ranking 19th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 76.4 grade, but he completed 69.7% of his passes for an average of 7.37 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in his final 10 regular season starts, while receiving a PFF grade of 84.6 over that stretch, 11th among quarterbacks. He could easily continue developing and be better overall in his second season in the league in 2025.

Nix will continue being backed up by veteran journeyman Jarrett Stidham, who has made just four starts in six seasons in the league, with a 78.3 QB rating in his career. Even as far as backup options, Stidham is an underwhelming one, so the Broncos would be in trouble if Nix missed more than a couple games this season. Fortunately, he doesn’t have a significant history of injury issues. As long as that continues in 2025, there is a good chance this season is better than last season for him.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the big free agent additions for the Jaguars this off-season was tight end Evan Engram. Engram has averaged 1.42 yards per route run in his career and averaged 1.51 yards per route run last season, but he missed 8 games due to injury, which limited him to a 47/365/1 slash line, and now he is going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline in 2025. However, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what the Broncos had at tight end last season, when none of their tight ends surpassed 200 yards receiving and the tight end position overall accounted for just 13.1% of the team’s targets, 2nd fewest of any team in the league. The tight end position was a big part of Sean Payton’s offense when he was with the Saints, so I would expect Engram to have a high usage in 2025, even if he’s not quite at his best.

All three of the tight ends who played significant snaps for the Broncos last season, Adam Trautman (572 snaps), Nate Adkins (419 snaps), and Lucas Krull (301 snaps) remain on the roster, but they will obviously play a smaller role in 2025, if they play any role at all. None of them will play a big role in the passing game, with Trautman, Adkins, and Krull averaging 0.97, 0.87, and 0.70 yards per route run in their careers respectively, but Trautman and Adkins were primarily involved as blockers last season and could continue seeing roles in that aspect. 

The Broncos only had one wide receiver with more than 502 receiving yards last season, but that wasn’t because they didn’t have good wide receivers. Instead, it was because only one of their wide receivers played an every down role, with four others rotating snaps. Courtland Sutton was their top receiver, turning 135 targets into a 81/1081/8 slash line with 1.84 yards per route run. In his career, he has a 1.66 yards per route run average and has exceeded 700 yards receiving in every healthy season of his career. Last season was only the second 1000+ yard season of his career, but it was also the first season of his career in which he had a decent quarterback. The bigger problem is he is now heading into his age 30 season and could start declining soon. He’ll likely remain an above average receiver for at least one more season, but he might not be quite as good as he was a year ago.

Of the four wide receivers who rotated snaps last season, two of them were significantly better than the other two, as Marvin Mims (297 snaps) and Devaughn Vele (448 snaps) averaged 2.57 and 1.51 yards per route run respectively, while Lil’Jordan Humphrey (545 snaps) and Troy Franklin (386 snaps) averaged 1.01 and 0.99 yards per route run respectively. In 2025, Humphrey is gone, but he was replaced by third round rookie Pat Bryant, so the Broncos could continue rotating wide receivers heavily, but they might be better off making Mims and Vele their primary #2 and #3 receiver and leaving Bryant and Franklin as reserves, even if Franklin is a 2024 4th round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league.

Vele is also a second year receiver, only being selected in the 7th round last season, but he well exceeded his draft slot as a rookie. He’s still pretty inexperienced and might not be able to translate last season’s promising season into a larger role, but he should at least be given a chance to. Mims, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2023 and hasn’t played more than a situational role yet, but he also averaged 1.54 yards per route run as a rookie before taking a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024. 

Mims probably wouldn’t be as efficient in a bigger role in 2025 as he was in a smaller role in 2024, but he could still be an above average #2 wide receiver even if he’s not quite as efficient. Massively talented and still only in his age 23 season, he has obvious breakout potential if he plays an expanded role this season. The Broncos may continue rotating these young wide receivers, but they would probably be better off not doing that. This receiving corps has a lot of upside, but it’s worth noting that their top wide receiver and top tight end are both on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running backs were a big part of the Broncos’ passing game last season, as they ranked 5th in the NFL with 21.4% of their targets going to running backs. I would expect that number to come down this season, in part because the Broncos’ receiving corps should be better, but also in part because Javonte Williams, their top passing down back last season with 1.22 yards per route run, is no longer with the team. Williams has been replaced by 2nd round rookie RJ Harvey, who has some pass catching upside and who should be an upgrade as a runner over Williams, who averaged just 3.69 YPC on 139 carries as the lead back last season, but I wouldn’t expect Harvey to be quite as productive in the passing game as Williams was.

Even as a second round rookie, Harvey has a clear path to a big role in this backfield. Their other running back options are Audric Estime, a 2024 5th round pick who averaged 4.08 YPC on 76 carries with just 0.68 yards per route run as a rookie, and Jaleel McLaughlin, who has averaged 4.79 YPC in two seasons in the league, but only across 189 total carries and, at 5-7 187, it’s unlikely he’s capable of handling a significantly bigger workload than that. McLaughlin will likely remain involved as a change of pace back, but he’s not a candidate for a significant workload and the same is probably true of Estime, who was underwhelming overall as a rookie. Unless Harvey breaks out as a talented feature back right away, this is an underwhelming backfield.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Broncos’ offensive line was the strength of their offense last season, ranking 1st in pass blocking grade and 11th in run blocking grade on PFF. The good news is they return all five starters from a year ago. The bad news is two of their starters are on the wrong side of 30 and could decline in 2025, perhaps significantly, as left tackle Garett Bolles is in his age 33 season and right tackle Mike McGlinchey is in his age 31 season. They had PFF grades of 78.8 and 74.0 last season, but it’s pretty unlikely that both are as good again in 2025 as they were in 2024, given their ages.

Bolles has finished above 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league (116 starts), so he’s starting from a pretty high base point and would likely remain a solid starter at the very least even if he declines, but any significant decline from him would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line. McGlinchey hasn’t been quite as good in his career, but he’s finished above 65 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league (98 starts), including four seasons above 70. He’s a couple years younger than Bolles, so he’s less likely to decline and, even if he does, he could remain a solid starter, but, like with Bolles, any significant decline from him would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line.

This offensive line should still be pretty good though. Right guard Quinn Meinerz was their best offensive lineman last season and, still in his prime in his age 27 season, he should continue dominating in 2025. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Meinerz has finished above 65 on PFF in all four seasons in the league and has developed into one of the best guards in the league over the past two seasons, ranking 3rd and 2nd respectively among guards on PFF with PFF grades of 83.7 and 88.2 respectively, while making all 34 starts. He should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Center Luke Wattenberg and left guard Ben Powers were their weakest starters last season, with PFF grades of 63.3 and 63.9 respectively. Wattenberg was a 5th round pick in 2022 and only played 129 mediocre snaps in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, so he’s a one-year wonder in terms of even being a decent starter and could regress somewhat in 2025. Powers, on the other hand, is at least more proven, making 63 starts over the past four seasons and finishing above 60 on PFF in all four seasons, but he’s maxed out with a 66.3 PFF grade, so he hasn’t shown much upside. Already in his age 29 season, Powers is who he is at this stage of his career and will likely have a similar season again in 2025.

The Broncos’ depth last season also played pretty well when needed, as backup center/guard Alex Forsyth had a 65.2 PFF grade in four starts and backup tackles Matt Peart and Alex Palczewski had PFF grades of 67.4 and 63.4 in two starts and three starts respectively. Forsyth and Palczewski were 7th round picks and undrafted free agents in 2023 and didn’t play a snap as a rookie, so they’re both very unproven, but they did at least flash some upside last season. 

Peart is the most experienced of the bunch, making nine starts in five seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020, and he’s been decent, if inconsistent, with PFF grades above 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league. They might not be as good again in 2025 if forced into significant action, but they’re not bad depth. This offensive line is likely to not be quite as good as it was last year, but this is still a well above average group.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Broncos’ defense was the strength of this team last season, ranking 3rd in yards per play allowed and 6th in first down rate allowed, as opposed to the offense ranking 20th in yards per play and 22nd in first down rate. One very impressive aspect of this defense was their pass rush, which led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than any other team. Starting edge defenders Jonathan Cooper and Nik Bonitto both had double digit sacks, with totals of 10.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate and 13.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate respectively, while receiving PFF grades of 71.8 and 77.5 respectively. 

For both players, it was a career best year, especially for Bonitto, who had PFF grades of just 52.4 and 64.0 on snap counts of just 357 and 524 respectively in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. Bonitto was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and has always had upside, so it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner, but he also could regress a little bit in 2025, though I wouldn’t expect him to regress all the way back to his 2022-2023 form. Cooper, meanwhile, is a 2021 7th round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, though he only combined for 13 sacks, 17 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 47 games in his first three seasons in the league, so last season was definitely his best season in that aspect. Like Bonitto, he could regress a little, but he also could have permanently turned a corner.

Jonah Elliss (436 snaps) and Dondrea Tillman (243 snaps) were their top reserves last season and had different results. Elliss had 5 sacks in a part-time role, but only added one quarterback hit and a 8.3% pressure rate, while Tillman also had 5 sacks, but added 3 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate. Both were rookies, but Elliss went in the 3rd round, while Tillman went undrafted, so Elliss may still have the higher upside long-term and could continue playing a bigger role than Tillman. Elliss could take a step forward in his second season in the league, while Tillman has yet to show enough that we can ignore that the whole league passed on him in the draft just a year ago. The Broncos also added Que Robinson in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give themselves some more depth, but he would likely need at least one, if not multiple significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to play a significant role in year one. This is a talented position group overall. 

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Broncos also got a great pass rush from the interior. John Franklin-Myers and Zach Allen, their top-2 interior defenders, had their issues against the run, but as pass rushers they had 7 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate and 8.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate respectively. For both players, it was a career best year, but both have been good pass rushers in the past as well, as Allen combined for 10.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 30 games from 2022-2023, while Franklin-Myers combined for 17.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 65 games from 2020-2023. Both are still on the right side of 30, in their age 28 and age 29 seasons respectively so, while they might not quite repeat the best season of their career again in 2025, both should remain high level pass rushers.

Malcolm Roach (489 snaps) also was a useful pass rusher as a reserve, with 2.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate. That was out of character for him though, as he finished above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade and in overall grade in three of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, on an average of just 258 snaps per season, while managing just a 5.3% pressure rate across those four seasons. It’s very possible the 2020 undrafted free agent proves last season to be a little bit of a fluke, but he’s not a bad reserve option to have. 

With Franklin-Myers, Allen, and Roach all being better pass rushers than run defenders, DJ Jones (465 snaps) was probably the Broncos’ best interior defender against the run last season and he added a 6.7% pressure rate as well, leading to a decent overall PFF grade of 64.1. Jones has mostly been a solid rotational player in recent years, exceeding 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons on an average of 478 snaps per season, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon. 

The Broncos also have Jordan Jackson, but he struggled mightily with a 40.5 PFF grade across 310 snaps last season in the first action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. The Broncos return all five of their top interior defenders from a year ago, but with Roach being a one-year wonder, Jones going into his age 30 season, and Jackson struggling, the Broncos felt they needed more depth and added Sai’Vion Jones in the 3rd round of the draft and he has a good chance to earn a reserve role in year one. This is a deep and talented position group.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Broncos’ top-2 linebackers in terms of snaps played last season were Cody Barton (1,053 snaps) and Justin Strnad (676 snaps). Barton (66.1 PFF grade) left as a free agent, while Strnad (55.5 PFF grade) struggled last season, but the Broncos do get Alex Singleton back after a torn ACL cost him all but 190 snaps in three games last season and they added Dre Greenlaw in free agency on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal. They figure to be the starters this season.

Both Singleton and Greenlaw are coming off injury plagued seasons though, as Greenlaw was also limited to 34 snaps by a torn achilles last season. Greenlaw has finished above 65 on PFF in four straight seasons, with two seasons over 80, but he’s also missed 33 games due to injury over that stretch. Still only in his age 28 season, he has a lot of potential if he’s healthy, but that’s not a guarantee. Singleton, meanwhile, doesn’t have the same injury history as Greenlaw, but he’s going into his age 32 season and doesn’t quite have the same upside as Greenlaw either, though he has finished above 60 on PFF with a maximum PFF grade of 79.1 in 2022. He could have another solid season as an every down player, but that’s not a guarantee.

Strnad remains as a reserve, but he’s never had any success. The 2020 5th round pick played just 5 snaps between 2022-2023, after struggling mightily with a 32.0 PFF grade across 314 snaps in the first action of his career in 2021, so last season was actually the best season of his career, even though he struggled. He could face competition for the top reserve role from Drew Sanders, who was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but has yet to live up to the billing, struggling across just 278 snaps in two seasons in the league. Sanders could still have some untapped upside, but that’s not a guarantee. The Broncos’ lack of depth at linebacker is a concern, given that the starters are coming off of lost seasons due to injury, but this group does have upside if the starters stay healthy and play at close to their best.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Broncos got great seasons from a pair of defensive backs, cornerback Pat Surtain and safety Brandon Jones, who finished with PFF grades of 85.6 and 86.7 respectively, while making 16 starts each. For Surtain, this performance was not surprising, as the 2021 9th overall pick also had a 86.8 PFF grade in 2022, though he has been a bit inconsistent, with PFF grades of 66.1 and 69.0 in 2021 and 2023 respectively. Despite that inconsistency, Surtain has as high of an upside as any cornerback in the league, still only going into his age 25 season.

For Jones, last season’s dominant performance came out of nowhere, as he had never played more than 644 snaps in a season prior to last season, with a career best PFF grade of 76.8 in 2023, across just 464 snaps, and three seasons below 70 out of four seasons in the league. Jones is still in his prime in his age 27 season, but there is a good chance last season proves to be a fluke. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he remained at least an above average starter, even if he’s not quite as good as he was last season.

The rest of this secondary was not nearly as good last season, as #2 and #3 cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian finished with PFF grades of 61.2 and 59.9 respectively across snap counts of 836 and 870 respectively, while their other starting safety, PJ Locke, had a 57.5 PFF grade across 1,000 snaps. To improve the rest of this group, the Broncos signed safety Talanoa Hufanga to a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal and used their first round pick on cornerback Jahdae Barron. 

Hufanga will take over at safety next to Jones. The 2021 5th round pick had a 68.8 PFF grade across 1,029 snaps in 2022 and seemed to be on his way to an even better season in 2023, when he had a 70.5 PFF grade, but his season was cut short (577 snaps in 10 games) by a torn ACL and he was not the same upon his return in 2024, when he was limited to just 308 snaps in seven games and had just a 57.8 PFF grade. Now another year removed from the injury and still only going into his age 26 season, Hufanga has obvious bounce back potential if he’s healthy. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be a significant upgrade over Locke, who is now the primary reserve, a role he was much more comfortable in prior to last season, when he averaged just 137 snaps per season in his first five seasons in the league.

Barron, meanwhile, will compete for a starting job right away at cornerback and will likely beat out either Moss or McMillan. Moss was a 2023 3rd round pick, but he only played 25 nondescript snaps as a rookie before being underwhelming as a starter in 2024. He still could have untapped upside, going into his age 25 season and his third season in the league, but he shouldn’t be guaranteed a starting job. McMillan, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2022, played just 68 snaps as a rookie, and seemed to breakout with a 68.4 PFF grade across 669 snaps in 2023, before regressing in 2024. Barron will likely be an upgrade over whoever he replaces in the starting lineup. Surtain and Jones might not be quite as good as they were last season, but the additions of Hufanga and Barron should offset any regression from them.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Will Lutz ranked 8th among kickers with 7.51 points above average last season, but he’s been inconsistent in the past, including three straight seasons prior to last season when he finished below average, costing his teams 14.95 points across the three seasons. Lutz is now going into his age 31 season, which isn’t over the hill for a kicker, but he’s not guaranteed to be anywhere near as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, given his history of inconsistency.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Broncos were not as good as their final record suggested last season, with a yards per play differential of +0.30 and a first down rate differential of +0.52%, and they were one of the healthiest teams in the league, with the 6th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which is not guaranteed to happen again. However, they got better as last season went on, as rookie quarterback Bo Nix developed, which could continue into this season, and they made a few significant additions this off-season like Evan Engram, Dee Greenlaw, and Talanoa Hufanga, without having any losses that were as significant. All in all, the Broncos at least have a good chance to make it back to the post-season, though I don’t think they are quite good enough to be true Super Bowl contenders.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West

Atlanta Falcons 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

The Falcons finished 7-10 in 2023, but looked like they had a good chance to take a big step forward in 2024. The Falcons’ record was not impressive the season before, but they had an above average supporting cast, with their weak link being the quarterback position, which led the Falcons to a 27th ranked team QB rating at 80.5. The Falcons then overhauled the quarterback position last off-season, not only giving a big 4-year, 180 million dollar contract to a proven veteran free agent in Kirk Cousins, but also using the 8th overall pick on Michael Penix, to give them a pair of seemingly good options going into 2024. However, the Falcons only won one more game in 2024 and missed the post-season again.

The biggest reason for that was the decline of their defense, which I will get more into later. After ranking 7th in yards per play allowed and 8th in first down rate allowed in 2023, the Falcons fell to 19th and 23rd respectively in those two metrics in 2024. Their offense actually took a big step forward, going from 16th in yards per play and 19th in first down rate in 2023 to 8th and 11th respectively in those two metrics in 2024. However, quarterback play was not the biggest reason for their offensive success.

Kirk Cousins did not play as well as expected, failing to bounce back to form as a 36-year-old quarterback who was coming off of an achilles repair. Cousins completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 7.74 YPA, but had 16 interceptions to 18 touchdowns and was probably given too long of a leash. Penix eventually took over for Cousins for the final three games of the season, but the Falcons were on the outside looking in at a playoff spot at that point in the season and Penix wasn’t really any better, completing 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.38 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Penix was always going to be the Falcons’ future at quarterback and, though Kirk Cousins remains on the roster, Penix is the undisputed starter going into 2025. It’s tough to know what to expect from Penix given his limited NFL playing time, but he showed a lot of potential coming into the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in his second season in the league. Cousins, meanwhile, only remains on the roster because his 27.5 million dollar salary for 2025 was guaranteed either way and he could still find his way out of Atlanta via trade if the Falcons can find a team desperate enough to eat a big chunk of Cousins’ salary or give the Falcons a significant draft pick in return for the Falcons eating his salary.

The Falcons shouldn’t just give Cousins away though, as he could easily prove to be useful as a backup, considering how inexperienced Penix is and his history of injuries from his collegiate days. Cousins is now going into his age 37 season, but he’s also another year removed from his injury and he was a consistently above average quarterback before the injury, finishing above 75 on PFF in six straight seasons prior to 2025. His best days are probably behind him, but he’s one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and could find his way back into the starting lineup if Penix struggles or gets hurt. Chances are one of the two Falcons’ quarterbacks has a better year in 2025 than they did in 2024, but this is still a questionable position group when you compare it to many other teams around the league.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The biggest reason the Falcons had some offensive success last season was their running game, led by feature back Bijan Robinson, who rushed for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns across 304 carries (4.79 YPC), averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact, ranking 1st in the NFL among running backs with a 60.2% carry success rate, and breaking tackles at a 23.0% rate. Robinson also had a 61/431/1 slash line as a receiver with 1.11 yards per route run average, which, combined with his rushing prowess, led to Robinson ranking 2nd among running backs on PFF with a 92.8 overall grade, only behind Derrick Henry. 

Robinson entered the league with a lot of upside as the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and he showed that potential as a rookie, with 4.53 YPC on 214 carries, 3.10 YPC after contact, a 24.2% broken tackle rate, a 43.5% carry success rate, a 58/487/4 slash line, and 1.16 yards per route run, before taking a big step forward in his second season in the league. Still only going into his age 23 season, Robinson looks likely to be one of the best feature backs in the NFL for years to come, even when you consider how injury prone running backs tend to be and how short their careers tend to be.

The Falcons also have a great backup running back in Tyler Allgeier. In three seasons in the league, he has averaged 4.43 yards per carry, 3.37 yards per carry after contact, a 23.8% missed tackle rate, a 52.3% carry success rate, and 1.11 yards per route run, with 4.70 yards per carry, 3.61 yards per carry after contact, a 27.0% missed tackle rate, a 58.4% carry success rate, and 0.95 yards per route run in 2024. The Falcons are a run heavy team so, even with Robinson ahead of him on the depth chart and playing in all 17 games last season, Allgeier still got 137 carries last season. I expect a similar role for him in 2025 and for him to continue being effective as arguably the best backup running back in the NFL. 

With Robinson and Allgeier topping the depth chart, the Falcons don’t have much need for a third running back. That role will likely fall to Jase McClellan again, a 2024 6th round pick who averaged just 2.46 yards per carry as a rookie, but who fortunately only got 13 carries all season. Even if one of Robinson or Allgeier misses significant time with injury, the other would likely get the vast majority of the snaps, leaving McClellan as a sparingly used backup.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Falcons’ offensive line was also a strength last season, but there are reasons not to expect them to be quite as good in 2024. For one, center Drew Dalman, who had a 78.8 PFF grade last season, is no longer with the team and was replaced by career backup Ryan Neuzil, a 2021 undrafted free agent who had PFF grades of 55.3 and 58.5 across snap counts of 203 and 578 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, the only two seasons of his career in which he played significant action. He will almost definitely be a liability and a huge downgrade from Dalman in 2025.

On top of that, left tackle Jake Matthews is now going into his age 33 season and could decline. Matthews hasn’t shown any decline yet, finishing last season with a 79.8 PFF grade, his 10th straight season over 70 on PFF, and he’s been remarkably durable throughout his career, missing just one game ever, back in his rookie season in 2014, but if he declines even somewhat in 2025, it will have a noticeable effect on an offensive line that will already be missing center Drew Dalman. Right tackle Kaleb McGary is also going to be on the wrong side of 30 in 2025, though he fortunately is three years younger than Matthews. Over the past three seasons, McGary has PFF grades of 86.6, 75.5, and 73.8 respectively.

The rest of this offensive line should continue playing at the same level in 2025 at least. Lindstrom, a 2019 1st round pick, has developed into arguably the best guard in the league, with PFF grades of 77.1, 83.7, 95.0, 87.6, and 93.5 over the past five seasons respectively, while missing just one game due to injury over that stretch. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect another dominant season from him in 2025. He will start opposite Matthew Bergeron, a 2022 3rd round pick who had a 59.1 grade in 17 starts as a rookie and then took a step forward with a 70.9 grade in 17 starts in his second season in the league in 2024. He’s technically a one-year wonder, but has a good chance of at least remaining a solid starter, with the upside for more, now in his third season in the league.

The Falcons’ offensive line stayed mostly healthy last season, with just nine starts missed total, eight of them by Drew Dalman, who is no longer with the team and was replaced by his backup Ryan Nuezil. Aside from Nuezil, the only Falcons reserve to make a start last season was swing tackle Storm Norton, who made one start at right tackle and finished the season with a 61.9 PFF grade across 128 snaps. He’s been a decent swing tackle in his career, making 22 starts over the past five seasons, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, but he’s now going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline. If forced into an extended starting role, he could easily struggle.

The rest of the Falcons’ reserve options aren’t any better. The Falcons didn’t add any centers of note this off-season, leaving Jovaughn Gwyn, a 2023 7th round pick who has never played an offensive snap in his career, as the likely backup center. At guard, their best option is likely Elijah Wilkinson, who made 45 starts in the six seasons prior to only playing one snap as a reserve last season. He had some decent years in that stretch, but was also very inconsistent and now heads into his age 30 season. The Falcons still have a strong starting offensive line, but they didn’t replace Drew Dalman, both of their starting tackles are on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is suspect.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Falcons got good play out of their top-2 wide receivers as well. Drake London led the team with a 100/1271/9 slash line and 2.32 yards per route run. London had never surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in his career prior to last season, but the former 8th overall pick showed potential with yards per route run averages of 2.07 and 1.87 in his first two seasons in the league and went into his third season in the league in 2024 with an upgrade at quarterback, so a breakout statistical year wasn’t really a surprise. He should have another similar season in 2025, if not even better, still only going into his age 24 season.

Darnell Mooney having a solid year as the #2 receiver was a little bit more of a surprise. Mooney had only averaged 1.35 yards per route run and a 53/648/3 slash line per season in four seasons in Chicago, where the 2020 5th round pick started his career before signing in Atlanta last off-season. In his first season in Atlanta, he finished with a 64/992/5 slash line and a career high 1.88 yards per route run average, benefitting significantly from being on a better passing offense in Atlanta than in Chicago. It’s possible he is just as good in 2025, only in his age 28 season, but it’s also possible he could decline a little bit after a career best yards per route run average last season.

Third receiver Ray-Ray McCloud also had a career best year in 2024, finishing with a 62/686/1 slash line, after totaling just 768 receiving yards in six seasons in the league prior to 2024. That was mostly just due to getting more opportunity in Atlanta than he ever had before, due to the Falcons’ lack of wide receiver depth. His 1.25 yards per route run average in 2024 was mediocre and only a slight increase over his career 1.08 yards per route run average. McCloud is still relatively young in his age 29 season, but even if he repeats last year’s career best year, he is still an underwhelming #3 receiver. The Falcons don’t have a better option though, with the alternatives being 2024 6th round pick Casey Washington, who only played 9 snaps as a rookie, and KhaDarel Hodge, a career backup heading into his age 30 season with a maximum of 14 catches in a season in his career and a career 1.27 yards per route run average.

The disappointment of this receiving corps last season was tight end Kyle Pitts. Pitts has been a disappointment since his rookie season, when the 2021 4th overall pick looked like a future star with a 68/1026/1 slash line, a 2.02 yards per route run average, and a 80.3 PFF grade. Since then, he has seen his yards per route run average drop to 1.69, 1.43, and 1.33 over the past three seasons respectively, while his PFF grade has dropped to 73.3, 68.1, and 59.6, as he seemingly gets worse every season, even with last year being the best passing offense has has ever played on. Pitts is still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s possible he starts to turn it around in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Pitts is at least locked into the primary receiving tight end role, without the Falcons having another good option, though that doesn’t guarantee he will have a big role in the passing game, even with the Falcons’ lack of depth at wide receiver. Pitts will likely again be backed up by Charlie Woerner, who has a career 0.54 yards per route run average, but is at least a decent blocker. This receiving corps overall looks identical to last year, when they were a talented, but top heavy group.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

If the Falcons can get even slightly better quarterback play this season, their offense has a lot of potential, given the amount of talent they have around the quarterback, but whether or not this team can make the post-season in 2025 is largely dependent on whether or not their defense improves after struggling last season. To try to improve on this side of the ball, the Falcons aggressively addressed a need at edge defender, where only one player finished with a pressure rate higher than 10% last season.

The Falcons used their own first round pick on Georgia’s Jalon Walker and then traded another future first round pick to move back up into the first round to select Tennessee’s James Pearce, giving them a raw, but high upside duo. The Falcons also added veteran Leonard Floyd, although he is not as good as his 8.5 sack total last season would suggest, as he finished with a 53.5 PFF grade across 604 snaps. Floyd started his season with seven straight seasons above 60 on PFF, but he has fallen below 60 in back-to-back seasons now and will be in his age 33 season in 2025, so he is likely to continue struggling.

Arnold Ebiketie was their best edge defender last season and will continue playing a role, after a 68.2 PFF grade across 543 snaps and a 11.6% pressure rate last season. A 2022 2nd round pick, Ebiketie also had PFF grades of 64.5 and 61.4 across snap counts of 516 and 385 respectively in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, while totaling a 11.7% pressure rate in those two seasons combined. Ebiketie is now in his age 26 season and should remain at least a solid rotational player.

The Falcons also have a pair of recent third round picks as options, 2022 3rd rounder DeAngelo Malone and 2024 3rd rounder Bralen Trice, but Malone has struggled across just 312 career snaps in three seasons in the league, while Trice missed his entire rookie season with injury and is an unproven player coming off of a serious injury. This edge defender group is likely better than last season’s by default, but they would need one or both of their first round edge defenders to be ahead of schedule in their development for this to be more than a decent group in 2025.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Falcons got better play at the interior defender position last season than at the edge defender position, but the problem was their top-2 players David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett were going into their age 33 and age 32 seasons respectively in 2025. The Falcons let go of Jarrett this off-season, after a 62.1 PFF grade across 744 snaps last season, while Onyemata returns after a 66.2 PFF grade across 567 snaps last season. Onyemata has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of the past eight seasons, including five seasons above 70, but his best seasons are probably behind him at this point and he could decline further in 2025. Most notably, Onyemata had just a 61.3 PFF grade as a pass rusher with just a 6.1% pressure rate last season, both the lowest since his rookie season in 2016.

To try to replace Jarrett, the Falcons signed Morgan Fox in free agency, but he’s also getting up there in age, heading into his age 31 season, and he’s not nearly as accomplished as Jarrett or Onyemata. He’s been an above average pass rusher throughout his career, with 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 120 career games, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in eight straight seasons and saw his pressure rate decline to 7.6% in 2025. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued declining in 2025 and, like Onyemata, his best days are probably behind him at this point.

The best option the Falcons have to replace Jarrett is probably Ruke Orhorhoro, a 2024 2nd round pick who was drafted with this situation in mind. Orhorhoro was limited to 147 snaps in 8 games as a rookie due to injury and was underwhelming when on the field as well, with just a 56.2 PFF grade, but he still has a high upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a big step forward in his second season in the league, especially if he is healthier. That’s not a guarantee, but Orhorhoro still profiles as a future starter long-term.

The Falcons also have Zach Harrison, Ta’Quon Graham, and Kentavius Street, who played snap counts of 272, 193, and 280 last season and were solid with PFF grades of 67.2, 63.9, and 61.5 respectively. It’s very possible some or all of them will see higher snap counts in 2025. Harrison seems like the most promising of them, as he is a 2023 3rd round pick who also showed promise with a 63.0 PFF grade across 343 snaps as a rookie. Graham, a 2021 5th round pick, has been about a league average rotational player over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 68.5 and 59.1 on snap counts of 471 and 364 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before being limited to 10 games by injury last season. He might not have a bigger snap count on a per game basis in 2025, but his total snap count should be higher just based on the fact that he is likely to play more games. 

Kentavius Street, meanwhile, is the least promising of the three reserve options, as last season was his first season in seven seasons in the league in which he finished above 60 on PFF. The Falcons lost Grady Jarrett this off-season, David Onyemata is another year older, and their only free agent addition Morgan Fox is also on the wrong side of 30, but the Falcons do at least have a pair of promising young interior defenders in Ruke Orhorhoro and Zach Harrison who could take a step forward in bigger roles in 2025.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Falcons had a solid linebacking corps last season, led by Kaden Elliss, who had a 71.1 PFF grade across 1,097 snaps, particularly excelling as a blitzer, with a team leading 12 quarterback hits and a 27.6% pressure rate on 156 blitzes. That’s nothing new for Elliss, who had PFF grades of 81.5 and 75.4 on snap counts of 632 and 1,082 respectively in 2022 and 2023, while achieving pressure rates of 19.4% and 25.7% respectively on 103 blitzes and 101 blitzes respectively. Elliss is now in his age 30 season, so he could start declining this season, but he’s more likely than not to remain at least a solid starter.

At the other linebacker spot, Nate Landman and Troy Andersen split snaps last season. Landman was the better of the two with a 65.7 PFF grade, especially excelling as a run defender, but he wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by Divine Deablo, who will compete for playing time with Andersen. Deablo is likely to be a downgrade from Landman, as he was about a replacement level linebacker throughout his first four seasons in the league with the Raiders, with PFF grades of 63.2, 58.4, 60.7, and 56.8 across snap counts of 297, 463, 771, and 689 respectively. 

Deablo might still be a better option than Andersen though, as Andersen has PFF grades of 40.2, 50.6, and 60.4 in three seasons in the league. He’s also missed 25 of 34 games over the past two seasons combined. Now going into his age 26 season, he is running out of time to make good on the upside he entered the league with, but he did at least have a career best year in 2024, albeit across just 287 snaps in seven games. The Falcons also have JD Betrand, but the 2024 5th round pick struggled mightily with a 49.8 PFF grade across 157 snaps as a rookie. The Falcons have one good linebacker, but the rest of this group is questionable and they will likely miss free agent departure Nate Landman.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Falcons’ best defensive player last season was safety Jessie Bates, who had a 80.2 PFF grade across 1,095 snaps. That season didn’t come out of nowhere, as he also had PFF grades of 79.9, 90.1, 76.8, and 90.6 respectively in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 respectively, but he has been a bit inconsistent in his career, with PFF grades of 61.2 and 56.1 in 2019 and 2021 respectively. The good news is he’s now coming off three straight strong seasons, so he’s in the most consistently dominant stretch of his career, and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, so he could easily have another dominant season in 2025. He’s also been very durable in his career, missing just three games in seven seasons in the league.

Justin Simmons wasn’t nearly as good at the other safety spot last season, with a 59.9 PFF grade across 1,017 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season. In his absence, the Falcons added Jordan Fuller to replace him. Fuller was a solid starter early in his career with the Rams, with PFF grades of 63.6, 74.3, and 66.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, with a lost year due to injury in between, but he fell to a 53.8 PFF grade across 574 snaps last season. He’s still only in his age 27 season though, so he could easily bounce back in 2025. If he continues struggling, the Falcons best alternatives are 3rd round rookie Xavier Watts and 2023 7th round pick DeMarcco Hellams, who showed some potential with a 65.2 PFF grade across 370 snaps as a rookie, before missing all of 2024 with injury.

At cornerback, the Falcons bring back their top-4 players from a year ago. AJ Terrell has been their #1 cornerback for years. A first round pick in 2020, Terrell has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (78 starts), including two seasons over 70, maxing out at 82.6 in 2021 and posting a 68.5 PFF grade in 2024. Still in his prime in his age 27 season, he should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Dee Alford and Mike Hughes finished second and third among Falcons cornerbacks in snaps played last season with 724 and 720. Alford, a 2022 undrafted free agent, had PFF grades of 64.8 and 70.0 across snap counts of 246 and 571 in his first two seasons in the league, but he was not as good across a career high in snaps last season, finishing with a 58.2 PFF grade. He was actually starting to cede snaps down the stretch to 2023 4th round pick Clark Phillips, who was impressive with a 76.5 PFF grade across 409 snaps. Phillips is still unproven, finishing his rookie season with a 59.0 PFF grade across 414 snaps, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued developing into a solid starter.

If Phillips can’t beat out Alford for a starting job, he could beat out Hughes. Hughes had a 71.9 PFF grade last season, but he has been pretty inconsistent throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league. Hughes was a first round pick in 2018, but he hasn’t developed into a consistent starter and is now in his age 28 season, so he is probably who he is at this stage of his career. It seems more likely that he will regress than repeat last season’s impressive performance. Alford, Phillips, and Hughes will compete for two starting roles, with fourth round rookie Billy Bowman playing a deep reserve role behind them. The Falcons’ secondary is the strength of their defense.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo used to be one of the best kickers in the league, accumulating positive points above average in four straight seasons from 2019-2022, totaling 24.58 points above average over that stretch, but he fell to 0.03 points below average in 2023 and then even further to 8.32 points below average in 2024. Koo is now going into his age 31 season, which isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, but it makes it less likely he will bounce back to his prime form after back-to-back down seasons. I would expect him to be better than he was in his career worst 2024 season though.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Falcons were slightly better than their final record of 8-9 last season, posting slightly above average marks in yards per play differential (+0.29) and yards per play differential (+0.19%). In 2025, they could get better quarterback play and their defense could be slightly better, so they should be in contention for a playoff spot, but they should have more injuries than a year ago (4th most adjusted games lost to injury) and I am not sure if they are one of the top-7 teams in the NFC.

Update: The loss of right tackle Kaleb McGary for the season due to injury is a blow to the Falcons’ already slim playoff chances.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South

Carolina Panthers 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Panthers

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Panthers were coming off of a 2023 season in which they had the worst record in the league at 2-15 and didn’t even get their own #1 overall pick, which was part of the trade package they used to move up with the Bears to get the #1 overall pick in 2023, which they used on Bryce Young. Young was the biggest part of the problem in 2023, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 5.46 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, finishing with a 56.4 PFF grade (40th among 45 eligible quarterbacks), and leading an offense that ranked 29th in first down rate and 32nd in yards per play. 

Going into 2024, the Panthers made significant upgrades on offense around Young, particularly on the offensive line, but their defense looked likely to be worse after losing Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu. At the start of the season, the Panthers’ offense didn’t look any better, while their defense declined significantly, which was exacerbated by the loss of defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season to injury in week 1. Playing poorly on both sides of the ball, the Panthers lost their first two games of the season by a combined 60 points.

Needing to make a change somewhere, the Panthers opted to bench Bryce Young after just 18 career starts, replacing him with veteran journeyman backup Andy Dalton. That decision improved things on their offense right away. The Panthers won their next game against the Raiders and, while that was the only game the Panthers won out of five with Dalton under center, Dalton looked like a clear upgrade over Bryce Young, completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions and finishing with a 68.1 PFF grade.

Dalton then suffered an injury, opening the door for Young to get his starting job back and some time on the bench proved to be exactly what he needed. Young started the rest of the way, completing 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 10 starts after taking back the starting job. In terms of PFF grade, Young ranked 13th among quarterbacks in the NFL over that stretch at 83.2. The Panthers finished the season just 5-12, but their defense was a much bigger part of the problem than the offense, as they ranked 24th in both first down rate and yards per play, while ranking dead last in first down rate allowed and yards per play allowed. 

There is still some concern for Young developing into a franchise quarterback long-term, but he has done more than enough to keep his starting job into 2025 and his long-term projection is a lot better now than it was a year ago. He will continue being backed up by Andy Dalton, who is one of the most accomplished backup quarterbacks in the league, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 253 touchdowns, and 150 interceptions in 168 career starts. However, he’s now heading into his age 38 season and hasn’t been a regular starter for a team since 2019, so he is definitely nearing the end of the line. The Panthers will obviously be hoping Dalton stays on the bench all season with Bryce Young continuing to develop into the quarterback the Panthers expected him to be when they used the #1 overall pick on him.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Panthers opted to use their first round pick, 8th overall, on a wide receiver to help Bryce Young, Tetairoa McMillan. It was a surprising pick because the Panthers seemed to have much bigger needs on defense and McMillan didn’t seem like the best available player either, as he was the top option by default in a weak wide receiver class and probably should have been selected somewhere in the 15-20 range. He does have the upside to develop into a #1 receiver long-term, but he’s an underwhelming option compared to the other wide receivers taken in the top-10 in recent years: JaMarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. 

This is the second straight year the Panthers have used a high draft pick on a wide receiver, as they traded up to take Xavier Legette at the end of the first round, 32nd overall, in 2024. Legette was underwhelming as a rookie with a 49/497/4 slash line and 1.19 yards per route run, but he has the upside to be a lot better in his second year in the league, though that’s obviously not a guarantee. Legette actually was outplayed by an undrafted rookie Jalen Coker, who was behind Legette in terms of overall production at 32/478/2, but who was far more efficient, averaging 1.72 yards per route run and totaling almost the same amount of receiving yardage on much fewer targets, 84 to 46. Legette may still have more upside than him long-term and this is a deeper wide receiver room with McMillan being added, but Coker still has a chance to earn a role in 2025.

The veteran of the group is Adam Thielen. Thielen led the team with a 103/1014/4 slash line 2023 and, while that dropped to 48/615/5 in 2024, that was primarily because he missed 7 games due to injury and, overall, his yards per route run average actually increased significantly from 2023 to 2024, going from 1.59 to 2.06. However, Thielen is now heading into his age 35 season, so it remains to be seen how much longer he can continue being a useful receiver, let alone a #1 option. With McMillan being added and Legette and Coker going into their second seasons in the league, I would expect Thielen to play a much smaller role in 2025 than he has over the past two seasons.

The Panthers have four good wide receiver options, so they don’t have much need for depth behind them, but they also have veteran David Moore and 6th round rookie Jimmy Horn. Moore has a decent 1.32 yards per route run average in eight seasons in the league, but that fell to 1.04 in 2024 and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so he is definitely best as a deep reserve. Horn, meanwhile, is unlikely to contribute in any sort of positive way as a rookie.

The Panthers aren’t nearly as good at tight end. Ja’Tavion Sanders led Panthers tight ends in snaps played last season (531 snaps), but he only had a 33/342/1 slash line with 1.09 yards per route run, while finishing with a 52.5 PFF grade. He was only a 4th round rookie last year and he could be better in his second season in the league, but that’s not necessarily a guarantee. Tommy Tremble also played a role last season with 518 snaps, but he wasn’t any better, with a 23/234/2 slash line, 0.89 yards per route run, and a 54.4 PFF grade. That’s largely in line with how Tremble has played in four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2021, as he has a career 0.76 yards per route run average, while finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons. 

The Panthers did use a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Mitchell Evans, who has the opportunity to earn a role in a thin position group, but he’s unlikely to make a positive impact as a rookie and, overall, it’s likely their tight end group remains a liability in 2025. The Panthers have a deep wide receiver group with a high upside to somewhat offset their issues at tight end, but their tight end situation does hurt their overall grade in the receiving corps and, as much upside as their wide receivers have, there is also some downside as well, as it is a combination of inexperienced young players and an aging Adam Thielen.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Along with Bryce Young’s improvement, the biggest reason for the Panthers’ offensive improvement last season was their offensive line, which went from 27th in pass blocking grade and 28th in run blocking grade on PFF in 2023 to 16th in pass blocking grade and 8th in run blocking grade in 2024. The biggest difference was the addition of a pair of talented guards in free agency, Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, who finished the season with PFF grades of 75.5 and 67.7 respectively, after being signed to contracts of 4 years, 53 million and 5 years, 100 million respectively.

For Lewis, last season was a career best, but it was his 3rd season in five years in the league above 70, so it didn’t come out of nowhere. The 2020 3rd round pick has been inconsistent in his career though, finishing below 60 on PFF in his other two seasons, including a 59.6 PFF grade as recently as 2023. Lewis could remain an above average starter in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee. For Hunt, last year was actually a down year, as he had PFF grades of 73.7 and 77.1 in 2022 and 2023. He’s also been a bit inconsistent in his career, but he’s never finished below 65 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (71 starts), since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020. He comes with a relatively low floor and could easily have a bounce back season in 2025.

The Panthers’ starting tackles in 2024 were the same as 2023, with Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle and Taylor Moton at right tackle. Ekwonu had a career best year in 2024, with a 71.7 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 65.3 and 67.4 in 2022 and 2023 and has always had a huge upside, as the 6th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Still only in his age 25 season, Ekwonu should remain an above average starter in 2025 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued developing and had a career best year. 

Moton, meanwhile, had a 77.2 PFF grade in 2024 that was very in line with how he’s played throughout his career, as he’s never finished below 69.3 on PFF in eight years in his league. Moton missed three games with injury last season, but those were the first three games he’s ever missed in his career. Moton is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start declining this season, but, unless he declines significantly, he’s likely to remain at least a solid starter and it’s very possible he doesn’t decline at all, as he hasn’t shown any signs of doing so yet.

Center is the one uncertain position for the Panthers on this offensive line. The Panthers are probably hoping Austin Corbett can win the job, stay healthy, and play well, but that’s not a guarantee. At his best, Corbett had PFF grades of 70.9, 68.8, and 69.1 in 2020, 2021, and 2022, but he has played just nine games due to injury over the past two seasons since then. Corbett’s past success has also mostly been at guard, as the five starts he made at center last season were his first five starts at the position in his career. Corbett had a 62.2 PFF grade last season, but that’s a limited sample size and now Corbett is going into his age 30 season and coming off of another significant injury. He could stay healthy and continue being a capable starting center in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Corbett will face competition for the starting center job from Cade Mays and Brady Christensen, who had some success at center in Corbett’s absence last season. Mays had a 66.1 PFF grade across eight starts at center, while Christensen had a 63.6 PFF grade in six starts, four at center and two at tackle. Mays, a 6th round pick in 2022, was not as good in five starts at guard in 2023 (58.3 PFF grade) and barely played as a rookie (51 snaps), but he showed potential in his new position at center in 2024, albeit in a small sample size. At the very least, he should be a solid reserve option in 2025, if Corbett manages to win the starting job. 

Christensen, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick who started 24 games in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, 4 at left tackle, 1 at right tackle, 1 at right guard, and 18 at left guard, and he received PFF grades of 61.6, 57.3, and 56.7 across those three seasons. He would probably be best as a versatile reserve who can play any of the five positions upfront if needed, but he’s also probably in the mix to start at center if he outplays Corbett and Mays. 

In addition to Mays and Christensen, the Panthers have other good reserve options. Swing tackle Yosh Nijman has made 25 starts at tackle over the past four seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 63.2, 63.1, 61.7, and 57.9 respectively. Reserve guard Chandler Zavala, a 2023 4th round pick, struggled with a 26.2 PFF grade across 374 snaps as a rookie, but took a big step forward in 2024 with a 71.2 PFF grade across 198 snaps. This was an above average overall offensive line last season and should remain one again this season.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Panthers also had a good running game last season, ranking 10th in the NFL with 4.58 yards per carry, led by feature back Chuba Hubbard, who rushed for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns on 250 carries (4.78 YPC). Hubbard benefitted from good run blocking, but he also played at a high level as well, averaging 3.46 yards per carry after contact and breaking tackles at a 19.6% rate, leading to him receiving the 9th highest run grade among running backs on PFF. All of that was a big leap forward for Hubbard, who averaged 3.92 yards per carry across 505 carries with 2.76 yards per carry after contact and a 16.0% missed tackle rate in three seasons in the league prior to last season, after being selected in the 4th round in 2021. 

It’s possible Hubbard isn’t quite as good again in 2025, but I would still expect him to at least be an above average feature back. The Panthers also hedged against Hubbard’s potential regression by signing Rico Dowdle in free agency and using a 4th round pick on Trevor Etienne, giving them more options than last season, when backup running back Miles Sanders only averaged 3.73 yards per carry on 55 carries. Dowdle went undrafted in 2020, but showed some potential with 4.06 yards per carry, 2.91 yards per carry after contact, and a 47.2% carry success rate across 89 carries in 2023 and then broke out with 4.59 yards per carry, 3.28 yards per carry after contact, and a 53.6% carry success rate across 235 carries in 2024. 

Dowdle will be the #2 back in Carolina behind Hubbard, who signed a 4-year, 33.2 million dollar extension during last season, but Dowdle also got a decent chunk of change with a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, so he figures to be heavily involved as a backup for a Panthers team that seems to want to rely on their running game and wants a one-two punch at the position. Dowdle could also be the primary passing down back, as he has a decent 1.00 yards per route run average for his career, as opposed to 0.82 for Hubbard. Etienne will be the third back, but he could be good insurance in case either of their top-2 backs get hurt and he also has potential as a receiver, so he also could be involved as a passing down back. This is a talented backfield overall.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Panthers had one of the worst defenses in the league last season. Their offense looks like it is going to be at least decent in 2025, but if this team is going to legitimately contend for a playoff spot, they will need to take a big step forward on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers didn’t make any off-season additions that look likely to move the needle in a significant way, but they do at least get back interior defender Derrick Brown after he was limited to just one game by injury last season, which should be a huge boost to this unit.

In the previous two seasons before missing most of last season, Brown finished with PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 across snap counts of 870 and 938 respectively, showing the potential that made him the 7th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He only managed 3 sacks, but he added 22 hits and a 7.9% pressure rate in 34 games in those two seasons, while dominating as a run defender, with PFF grades of 80.6 and 90.0 against the run, good for 3rd and 2nd among interior defenders in those two seasons. Still only going into his age 27 season, with only one game missed in four seasons in the league prior to last season, Brown has a great chance to bounce back at least to close to his 2022 and 2023 form.

In Brown’s absence last season, A’Shawn Robinson (761 snaps), LaBryan Ray (626 snaps), and Shy Tuttle (610 snaps) all played significant roles and all three struggled mightily, with PFF grades of 54.6, 33.0, and 42.7 respectively. All three remain on the roster, but the Panthers did make a pair of additions at the interior defender position in free agency and, while they are not true impact players, they should still be a significant upgrade at the interior defender position for the Panthers.

Tershawn Wharton was the big addition, coming over from the Chiefs on a 3-year, 45.05 million dollar deal. Wharton has been an effective pass rusher throughout his career, with 13.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 7.1% pressure rate in 72 career games since going undrafted in 2020, including 6.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate last season, but he has consistently struggled against the run, finishing below 60 in run defense grade on PFF in all five seasons. He’s also only played 447 snaps per season in his career, primarily as a situational pass rusher. Given the size of his contract, the Panthers may be expecting more than that out of him in 2025. He should remain an effective pass rusher, but he will be a big liability to this team if he has to play an expanded role in run defense situations.

Bobby Brown was also added on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and he’s kind of the opposite of Wharton. He has finished above 60 in run defense grade on PFF in all four seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, but he has only managed a 3.1% pressure rate with just half a sack and 1 hit in his career. He’s also played an even more limited snap count than Wharton in his career, maxing out at 472 snaps per game in a season, while averaging 243 snaps per season across his four seasons in the league. Like Wharton, he will likely play an expanded role in Carolina, but he’s unlikely to make much of an impact in passing situations.

Of the three holdovers who struggled last season, A’Shawn Robinson is the most likely to play a significant role in 2024. Not only was he the best of the bunch by default last season, but he is the most accomplished of the bunch in his career, finishing above 60 in PFF in five of nine seasons in the league, on an average of 34.5 snaps per game and 483 snaps per season. However, two of his four seasons below 60 have come in back-to-back seasons and now he heads into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Even in a reserve role, he could struggle.

Shy Tuttle has also had some success in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in his first four seasons in the league, but he has finished below 60 in back-to-back seasons as well, especially struggling last season, and now he too is going into his age 30 season. LaBryan Ray, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who has never had any success, also struggling with a 54.6 PFF grade across 356 snaps in the first action of his career in 2023 before being even worse in 2024. He may not even make the final roster, with the Panthers also adding Cam Jackson in the 5th round of the draft to give them more depth. With Derrick Brown returning from injury and Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown being upgrades by default, this position group looks significantly better than last season, when they were one of the worst interior defender groups in the league.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers also added edge defender Patrick Jones on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal and used second and third round picks on Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen to overhaul their edge defender group, but in the process they released Jadeveon Clowney to save 8 million non-guaranteed ahead of in his age 32 season in 2025 and he was arguably their best defensive player last season, with a 70.8 PFF grade across 650 snaps that was the highest PFF grade by any player on this defense who played significant snaps last season. As a pass rusher, Clowney had 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate and he was also a solid run defender.

It’s unlikely any of the Panthers’ edge defender additions will be as good as Clowney was last season. Scourton and Umanmielen have upside, but are just rookies, while Patrick Jones has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2021, while totaling just 12 sacks, 14 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 57 career games. The Panthers also should get a healthier season out of DJ Wonnum, who missed nine games last season, but he’s an underwhelming player as well, with PFF grades below 60 in four of five seasons in the league and 27 sacks, 25 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate in 70 career games. DJ Johnson could also be in the mix for a role, but the 2023 3rd round pick has received PFF grades of 50.4 and 54.2 across snap counts of 231 and 392 in two seasons in the league. This looks like a very underwhelming position group after the release of Clowney.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Things aren’t much better at the linebacker position for the Panthers. The Panthers signed Josey Jewell to a 3-year, 18.75 million dollar deal last off-season to replace talented free agent departure Frankie Luvu, but he was a disappointment, finishing with a 56.5 PFF grade across 796 snaps in 12 games. That was the first season of his 7-year career where he finished below 60, so he could bounce back in 2025, but he also is going into his age 31 season, so it’s very possible his best days are behind him and that he will continue struggling.

The rest of this linebacking corps isn’t any better. Trevin Wallace finished second among the Panthers’ linebackers with 582 snaps played last season, but the 2024 3rd round pick struggled as a rookie with a 56.0 PFF grade. He could be better in his second season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee. The Panthers signed Christian Rozeboom to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency and he will compete for a role, but the 2020 undrafted free agent has struggled in the two seasons in his career in which he has played significant snaps, with PFF grades of 49.0 and 59.0 across snap counts of 552 and 828 in 2023 and 2024 respectively. This is likely to be a below average linebacking corps again in 2025.

Grade: C

Secondary

The best free agent addition the Panthers made on defense this off-season is safety Tre’Von Moehrig. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Moehrig has started 64 of the 66 games he has played in that time and he has mostly been an above average starter, with PFF grades of 72.5, 54.1, 70.2, and 67.5 in four seasons in the league. Still only in his age 26 season, Moehrig should continue playing at a similar level and could potentially even have further untapped upside.

The rest of the Panthers’ safeties are a concern though. Four Panthers safeties played more than 300 snaps last season and three of them struggled, with Xavier Woods (1,216 snaps), Jordan Fuller (574 snaps), and Nick Scott (324 snaps) finishing with PFF grades of 57.0, 53.8, and 52.6. The only Panthers safety who finished above 60 on PFF last season was Demani Richardson, but he still had an underwhelming 60.1 PFF grade and he is a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 403 snaps, so he’s no guarantee to develop into even a capable starter long-term. 

Richardson may end up as a starter in 2025 though due to the lack of a better option. Nick Scott remains on the team, while Woods and Fuller are gone, but Scott has received PFF grades of 47.5, 54.2, 44.0, and 52.6 across an average of 573 snaps per season over the past four seasons and now heads into his age 30 season. The Panthers did use a fourth round pick on Lathan Ransom, but, even if he manages to become a starter as a rookie, it’s unlikely he would play well. 

Things are better at cornerback for the Panthers, though largely by default. Jaycee Horn was decent with a 65.4 PFF grade across 1,034 snaps last season and that was actually a career worst grade for him in four seasons since going 8th overall in 2021, as he finished with PFF grades of 67.8, 71.4, and 84.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, though it also was the first time he stayed relatively healthy, missing just two games after missing 28 total in his first three seasons in the league. Horn is still only going into his age 25 season, so he may have further untapped upside and could eventually put it all together across a healthy season, but he has yet to do that.

Horn will continue starting opposite Mike Jackson, who had a 67.2 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2024. It was the best full season as a starter of his career, but he also had a 60.2 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2022 and flashed a lot of potential with a 77.0 PFF grade across 474 snaps in 2023. Still only in his age 28 season, he should remain a solid starter again in 2025. However, the Panthers’ depth behind Horn and Jackson is very questionable.

The only other cornerback who played more than 100 snaps for the Panthers at cornerback last season who is still on the roster is Chau Smith-Wade, a 2024 5th round pick who struggled with a 51.6 PFF grade across 301 snaps. He is probably the favorite for the #3 cornerback job, with the Panthers making no significant cornerback additions this off-season. Their other best option is Akayleb Evans, a 2022 4th round pick who only played 29 snaps last season, after struggling with a 54.9 PFF grade across 855 snaps in the only significant action of his career in 2023. The rest of the cornerback depth chart consists of former undrafted free agents with little to no NFL experience. The Panthers’ secondary isn’t quite as bad as some other units on this defense, but this is still a unit of concern.

Grade: B-

Kicker

The Panthers’ kicking game was also an issue in 2024, as Eddy Pineiro finished with 2.98 points below average. The Panthers moved on from Pineiro this off-season, replacing him with journeyman Matthew Wright and undrafted rookie Ryan Fitzgerald. Wright is the favorite for the job. He has kicked for six teams in six seasons in the league and has actually accumulated 3.02 points above average over that stretch, with 2.82 points of that coming last season. It remains to be seen if he can be above average for a full season, but he at least has upside.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Panthers’ offense improved significantly down the stretch last season, with Bryce Young seeming to turn a corner in his development, and there is a good chance that continues into 2025. Their defense should be better by default, in large part due to the fact that they figure to be healthier, after having the third most adjusted games lost to injury on defense of any team in the league last season, including the absence of their best player Derrick Brown for all but one game. However, their defense still lacks talent in a significant way, which makes it highly unlikely this team will be able to compete for a playoff spot unless their offense can take things to a completely different level in Bryce Young’s third season in the league. It’s possible, but it seems much more likely that other teams will end up in the post-season in the NFC.

Prediction: 3-14, 3rd in NFC South