145-93 ATS (60.9%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time
Pick of the Week
High Confidence Picks
BUF 34 (-14.5) NO 13
Medium Confidence Picks
LV 27 (-1) CHI 22
DEN 21 CIN 17 (+7.5)
LAR 31 IND 30 (+3.5)
NE 28 (-5.5) CAR 20
Low Confidence Picks
HOU 16 TEN 10 (+7.5)
LAC 22 NYG 17 (+6.5)
GB 26 DAL 20 (+7)
MIA 20 (-2.5) NYJ 17
PHI 27 TB 24 (+3.5)
SF 31 (-3) JAX 27
No Confidence Picks
BAL 27 (-2.5) KC 24
ATL 23 (-2) WAS 20
DET 23 (-9.5) CLE 13
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) in Dublin
The Steelers are 2-1, but they have a negative point differential at -5, despite recovering all eight fumbles that have occurred in their three games. Recovering fumbles is a statistically random event and recovering eight in a row has a probability of about 0.4%. Like anything, there can be outliers, but the Steelers have actually been below 50% in terms of fumble recovery rate in three of the past four seasons, so there is no reason to expect this to continue. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive and predictable, the Steelers rank 30th and 29th respectively at -6.17% and -1.30 respectively. The Vikings, meanwhile, are positive in both of those metrics at +0.68 and +1.69% respectively.
The Vikings are favored in this game, but only by 2.5 points. My calculated line has the Vikings favored by 6 in this neutral site game, so we’re getting a lot of line value with them. True 6-point favorites have about a 62.46% chance of covering as 2.5-point favorites. On top of that, favorites tend to cover in neutral site international games historically, going 37-21 ATS all-time, better teams tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances. Getting good line value with a team that is in a good spot as well makes for a strong betting situation, so I like the Vikings a lot this week. This is my Pick of the Week.
Minnesota Vikings 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1)
Going into the season, I thought the Cardinals were the sleeper team in the NFC West, but the Seahawks have been the better team through three weeks, with a first down rate differential of +5.01% and a yards per play differential of +0.97, as opposed to -1.90% and -0.12 for the Cardinals. The Seahawks took a big risk this off-season swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold at quarterback, but it seems to have paid off as Darnold has been an upgrade thus far. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have dealt with a lot of injuries, with left tackle Paris Johnson, running back James Conner, cornerbacks Will Johnson and Garrett Williams, and interior defender Walter Nolen, all expected starters, missing time already this season.
Paris Johnson could be back this week, but that’s not a guarantee and the Seahawks are getting healthier, with top cornerback Devon Witherspoon and top safety Julian Love set to return this week. With the Seahawks favored by 1.5 points on the road, I would need Paris Johnson to be inactive for the Seahawks to be worth betting, as the Cardinals’ offense was significantly worse with him out of the lineup last season, but the Seahawks should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes regardless.
Seattle Seahawks 23 Arizona Cardinals 20
Pick against the spread: Seattle -1.5
Confidence: Low
142-89 ATS (61.5%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time
Pick of the Week
NE 24 (+1.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +105
High Confidence Picks
LV 23 (+3) WAS 20 Upset Pick +130
Medium Confidence Picks
SEA 19 NO 14 (+7.5)
ATL 26 CAR 24 (+5.5)
ARZ 24 (+3) SF 23 Upset Pick +125
MIN 23 (-3) CIN 17
Low Confidence Picks
GB 23 CLE 17 (+8.5)
IND 23 TEN 20 (+4.5)
PHI 23 LAR 20 (+3.5)
LAC 26 DEN 24 (+3)
BAL 33 (-4.5) DET 27
No Confidence Picks
DAL 35 (-1) CHI 33
KC 23 NYG 17 (+6.5)
TB 24 (-6.5) NYJ 17
JAX 17 HOU 16 (+1.5)
Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)
The Bills are in a good spot as big divisional favorites on Thursday Night Football, as teams are 38-20 ATS as home favorites of 7.5+ in this spot as long as both teams are on short rest. On top of that, the Dolphins have a history of struggling on the road against good opponents, as they are 1-7 ATS against winning teams on the road over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Bills in the past week, with this line swinging from favoring the Bills by 8.5 on the early line to now favoring them by 11.5. My calculated line has the Bills favored by 10.5, which isn’t enough line value to consider picking the Dolphins in a bad spot, but it’s enough to convince me not to bet on the Bills. Buffalo is still my pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.
Buffalo Bills 34 Miami Dolphins 20
Pick against the spread: Buffalo -11.5
Confidence: Low
139-85 ATS (62.1%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.6% ATS all-time
Pick of the Week
BAL 34 (-11.5) CLE 13
High Confidence Picks
ARZ 34 (-6.5) CAR 20
LV 28 (+3.5) LAC 26 Upset Pick +155
SEA 24 (+3.5) PIT 23 Upset Pick +145
Medium Confidence Picks
DAL 28 (-4.5) NYG 20
KC 23 (+1.5) PHI 20 Upset Pick +105
CIN 28 JAX 27 (+3.5)
MIN 26 ATL 24 (+3.5)
Low Confidence Picks
NE 24 MIA 23 (+2.5) Upset Pick +110
IND 17 DEN 16 (+2.5) Upset Pick +110
TB 19 (+2.5) HOU 17 Upset Pick +120
BUF 25 NYJ 20 (+6.5)
DET 27 (-6) CHI 20
No Confidence Picks
LAR 21 TEN 16 (+5.5)
SF 20 (-3) NO 17
Washington Commanders (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
The Packers are in a good spot this week. Non-divisional home favorites cover at a 60.7% rate on Thursday Night Football because it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless it is a divisional matchup between familiar opponents or unless the visitor is the superior team, neither of which are the case in this game. Unfortunately, the Packers enter this game very banged up, likely to be without top cornerback Nate Hobbs and a pair of starting offensive linemen in Aaron Banks and Zach Tom, the latter of whom is their best offensive lineman. None of those three have been ruled out, but Banks and Tom did not practice all week, while Hobbs did not play week 1 and has yet to practice in full since having off-season knee surgery.
My calculated line has the Packers favored by 3 in their current injury situation, but this line has remained at 3.5, despite the Packers likely absences, which is a big deal because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. If the Packers get some good injury news or this line drops to 3, I may increase the confidence of this pick, but for now this is a no confidence pick and, if both teams were on regular rest, I would be taking the Commanders +3.5.
Update: This line has dropped to 3 in some places so I am increasing this to a low confidence pick, but I would need at least Zach Tom to play for this line to be bettable.
Green Bay Packers 21 Washington Commanders 17
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3
Confidence: Low
131-85 ATS on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) in 2023-2024, 57.3% ATS all-time
Pick of the Week
DEN 20 TEN 17 (+8.5)
High Confidence Picks
NYJ 19 (+3) PIT 17 Upset Pick +130
ARZ 27 (-6.5) NO 13
Medium Confidence Picks
JAX 31 (-3.5) CAR 24
SF 24 (-1) SEA 20
IND 20 (-1) MIA 16
LV 26 (+2.5) NE 24 Upset Pick +125
MIN 27 (-1) CHI 23
Low Confidence Picks
CIN 24 CLE 20 (+5.5)
BAL 30 (-1) BUF 27
TB 27 (PK) ATL 24
No Confidence Picks
WAS 27 (-6) NYG 20
LAR 20 HOU 17 (+3.5)
GB 27 (-2) DET 24
Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) in Brazil
The Chiefs won 15 games and made the Super Bowl a year ago, but they didn’t have a lot of wins by big margins, with just three of their 17 victories coming by more than 10 points, six coming by more than 7 points, and six coming by 3 points or fewer, relevant considering this line is Kansas City -3. Including their three losses, just over half (11) of the twenty games the Chiefs played last season resulted in them winning by more than 3 points.
There is potential for the Chiefs to win more games by bigger margins this season once their receiving corps gets to full strength, but they are going to be without their eventual #1 receiver Rashee Rice for the first six games of the season due to suspension. Rice missed most of last season with injury, but it’s worth noting that if you exclude the four games he played last season, the Chiefs won by more than 3 points in exactly half of their games, 8 out of 16. On top of that, the Chiefs have also lost talented guard Joe Thuney and top safety Justin Reid from last year’s team, though the addition of rookie left tackle Josh Simmons should somewhat offset the loss of Thuney.
Given all of that, it wouldn’t be wise to confidently bet the Chiefs as 3-point favorites in a neutral site against a decent Chargers team. My calculated line is exactly where the actual line is at -3. One thing working in the Chiefs’ favor is that the better team tends to cover in international games as they tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances, leading to favorites being 37-20 ATS in international games all time. However, I don’t think that is enough to be confident in the Chiefs covering this spread. The Chiefs are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a low confidence pick.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 Los Angeles Chargers 17
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3
Confidence: Low
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
The Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions at home in the first game of the season, which tends to be a good spot for teams, going 13-6-1 ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, we have lost significant line value in the last week, with this line moving from Philadelphia -6.5 to -7.5 in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade. Losing Parsons will be a huge loss for the Cowboys, but he was unlikely to play a significant snap count in this game and might not have played at all after a monthlong holdout, so that line movement, crossing over a key number of 7, seems like an overreaction.
As much as Parsons being traded is a big deal, the Eagles lost a lot this off-season as well and are unlikely to be as good as they were down the stretch last season as a result, particularly on defense, where five of the eleven players who played at least 500 snaps for them are no longer with the team, after being a league best unit in 2024. I am still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t bet them confidently as long as the line is a touchdown or more.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Dallas Cowboys 17
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7.5
Confidence: Low
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