Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1)

Going into the season, I thought the Cardinals were the sleeper team in the NFC West, but the Seahawks have been the better team through three weeks, with a first down rate differential of +5.01% and a yards per play differential of +0.97, as opposed to -1.90% and -0.12 for the Cardinals. The Seahawks took a big risk this off-season swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold at quarterback, but it seems to have paid off as Darnold has been an upgrade thus far.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals have dealt with a lot of injuries, with left tackle Paris Johnson, running back James Conner, cornerbacks Will Johnson and Garrett Williams, and interior defender Walter Nolen, all expected starters, missing time already this season. 

Paris Johnson could be back this week, but that’s not a guarantee and the Seahawks are getting healthier, with top cornerback Devon Witherspoon and top safety Julian Love set to return this week. With the Seahawks favored by 1.5 points on the road, I would need Paris Johnson to be inactive for the Seahawks to be worth betting, as the Cardinals’ offense was significantly worse with him out of the lineup last season, but the Seahawks should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes regardless.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1.5

Confidence: Low