Pick of the Week
IND 31 (-3) PIT 24
High Confidence Picks
LAC 27 (-9.5) TEN 13
LAR 31 (-14) NO 13
Medium Confidence Picks
DET 28 MIN 23 (+8.5)
LV 17 (+3) JAX 16 Upset Pick +130
Low Confidence Picks
GB 24 CAR 13 (+13.5)
NYG 24 (+2.5) SF 23 Upset Pick +120
DEN 17 (+2) HOU 16 Upset Pick +110
KC 30 (-1.5) BUF 27
DAL 31 (-2.5) ARZ 27
CHI 24 CIN 23 (+3)
No Confidence Picks
NE 25 (-4.5) ATL 20
SEA 23 (-3) WAS 20
BAL 31 MIA 24 (+7.5)
Baltimore Ravens (2-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-6)
Both of these teams only have two wins, but they have very different rest of the season outlooks. While the Dolphins have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of yards per play differential (29th at -0.70) and first down rate differential (28th at -3.24%), the Ravens have been much better in those metrics than their record, ranking 14th in yards per play differential (+0.04) and 18th in first down rate differential (-0.64%), despite a much tougher schedule than the Dolphins. Those metrics are much more predictive of a team’s future success than a team’s win/loss record, so that bodes well for the Ravens going forward.
The Ravens are also much healthier now than they have been for most of the season, with quarterback Lamar Jackson, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, defensive tackle Travis Jones, edge defender Kyle Van Noy, linebacker Roquan Smith, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton all back from injuries that cost them time earlier in this season. With their team close to full strength and their schedule set to get much easier, the Ravens, one of the top teams in the AFC coming into the season, should be able to rip off a bunch of wins over the coming weeks to get themselves right back into the playoff picture.
Unfortunately, we’re not really getting any line value with the Ravens, as this line, favoring the Ravens by 7.5 points on the road, reflects the Ravens’ promising rest of season outlook. My calculated line is actually only Baltimore -7, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. The Dolphins are in a bad spot, as teams that win as underdogs of 6.5+ cover at just a 38.6% rate the following week as underdogs of 6.5+ the following week, but the Ravens aren’t in a good spot either, as they are playing two games in five days after previously having a bye. Teams in that spot cover at just a 30.3% rate, unless their opponent is also in the same situation, including just 2-10 ATS on the road in a non-divisional matchup. If I had to pick a side, I would take the Dolphins, but if this line was -7, I would take the Ravens. That’s how close this one is for me.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Miami Dolphins 24
Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
BUF 27 CAR 24 (+7.5)
High Confidence Picks
CIN 23 NYJ 21 (+6.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
IND 34 (-14.5) TEN 13
NE 20 CLE 16 (+7)
DEN 24 DAL 23 (+3.5)
KC 30 WAS 21 (+12.5)
Low Confidence Picks
HOU 20 (-1.5) SF 17
BAL 23 (-1.5) CHI 20
No Confidence Picks
ATL 27 MIA 20 (+7.5)
TB 24 (-3.5) NO 20
PHI 27 NYG 20 (+7.5)
GB 23 PIT 20 (+3)
Minnesota Vikings (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
Typically the rule of thumb in non-divisional games on Thursdays is to pick the home team, as long as they are favored and as long as both teams are on short rest. With the exception of significantly superior teams, it is very tough for a team to go on the road on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent and, as a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 61.2% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest.
Additionally, it is also very tough for teams to play at their best on a short week when they are playing two games in five days after previously having a bye, like the Vikings did in week 6. Teams in that spot cover at just a 35.3% rate, unless their opponent is also in the same situation, including just 2-9 ATS on the road in a non-divisional matchup. This isn’t a big play because we aren’t getting significant line value with the Chargers and, if this was a Sunday or a Monday game, I would have no interest in betting the Chargers, but the Chargers are worth a small bet in this spot.
Los Angeles Chargers 23 Minnesota Vikings 17
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3
Confidence: Medium
Pick of the Week
LAR 24 (-3) JAX 16
High Confidence Picks
DEN 24 (-7) NYG 13
CHI 24 NO 23 (+5)
GB 23 ARZ 20 (+7)
Medium Confidence Picks
IND 23 (+1.5) LAC 20 Upset Pick +105
DET 31 TB 27 (+6.5)
SEA 23 (-3) HOU 17
DAL 34 (-1) WAS 31
Low Confidence Picks
ATL 24 (+2.5) SF 23 Upset Pick +110
CLE 23 (-2.5) MIA 20
KC 33 (-11.5) LV 20
No Confidence Picks
NE 26 TEN 20 (+7)
PHI 20 MIN 19 (+2.5)
CAR 24 NYJ 23 (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
The Steelers are 4-1, but they have been pretty underwhelming so far this season. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-1.39%) and yards per play differential (-0.08), despite a below average schedule. Their turnover margin of +7 is 3rd best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have high week-to-week variance. Fumble margins in particular have very high week-to-week variance and the Steelers are a league leading +5 in that metric. That is despite the fact that they have only caused 2 more fumbles than they have committed, as they have recovered an unsustainably high 83.3% of fumbles in their games.
The Steelers’ schedule doesn’t get any harder this week, as the Bengals as one of the worst teams in the league, but this is also a spot in which the Steelers tend to disappoint, as they are 22-38 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more in the Mike Tomlin era, including 10-26 ATS after a win the previous week. Unfortunately, I don’t think we are getting enough line value with the Bengals at +5.5 for them to be worth betting, unless we get some good news on Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals’ best defensive player, who didn’t practice all week. If the line shifts significantly or he is able to play at close to 100%, I will update this pick.
Early bet locks: NO +5, DEN -7
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Cincinnati Bengals 17
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +5.5
Confidence: Low
Pick of the Week
CLE 17 (+6.5) PIT 16 Upset Pick +225
High Confidence Picks
SEA 24 (PK) JAX 20
Medium Confidence Picks
LAR 24 BAL 20 (+7.5)
WAS 27 (-4.5) CHI 20
NE 24 NO 23 (+3.5)
IND 27 ARZ 21 (+8.5)
Low Confidence Picks
GB 27 (-14) CIN 10
KC 30 (-2.5) DET 27
LV 20 (-4) TEN 14
DAL 28 (-3) CAR 24
No Confidence Picks
LAC 24 MIA 20 (+4.5)
TB 27 SF 24 (+3.5)
BUF 31 ATL 27 (+4.5)
Denver Broncos (3-2) vs. New York Jets (0-5) in London
Normally the Broncos would be in a good spot in this game, as favorites tend to cover in international games, especially big favorites, with favorites of a touchdown or more going 9-2 ATS. However, the Broncos could be a little flat, facing a winless team after a big upset win in Philadelphia last week. Teams cover at just a 41.1% rate as favorites of 4 or more after an upset win as underdogs of 4 or more, while winless teams tend to be a good betting proposition, as teams 0-4 or worse cover at a 55.7% rate.
The Jets also haven’t been as bad as their record suggests in terms of yards per play differential (23rd at -0.43) and first down rate differential (16th at +0.31%), which are more predictive than win/loss records. Their biggest issue has been the turnover margin, in which they rank dead last at -8, but that tends to have high week-to-week variance. A big part of why they haven’t been so bad in yards per play differential and first down rate differential is their performance in garbage time, but that can’t be ignored when a line is a full touchdown.
The Jets have lost three of their five games by fewer than 7 points, including 2-point losses to a pair of decent or better teams in the Steelers and Buccaneers. On the other hand, the Broncos don’t normally take their foot off the gas when winning by multiple scores, ranking tied for 2nd in the NFL with 10 wins by 8 points or more over the past two seasons, so I am still comfortable picking them for pick ‘em purposes, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Jets made this one close and covered the spread, so I wouldn’t bet on the Broncos.
Week 6 Early Locked Bet: CLE +6.5
Denver Broncos 27 New York Jets 17
Pick against the spread: Denver -7
Confidence: Low
Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)
The Eagles are a tough team to be confident in either way. They are defending Super Bowl Champions and they are 4-1 despite one of the toughest schedules in the league, but they haven’t looked particularly good in any of their games. All five of their games have been decided by seven points or fewer and they rank 24th in first down rate differential (-2.01%) and 28th in yards per play differential (-0.92). Even with their tough schedule factored in, they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency.
However, my roster rankings suggest they should be a lot better than that (6th) and it’s worth noting that by far their easiest game of the season, even on the road, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this is when they end up breaking out, as the Giants are just 1-4 and rank 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency and in 26th my roster rankings. However, with this line favoring the Eagles by a full touchdown, we’re not getting any value with them and it’s tough to know what to expect from them, given the mismatch between their talent level and their statistical output, so this is a no confidence pick.
Update: The final inactive list is not good for the Eagles. Jalen Carter is out, while Jermaine Eluemunor is in, after both were listed as questionable. Despite this, this line is still at 7.5 in some places. I would rather pick the Giants +7.5 than Eagles -7, but it’s a no confidence pick either way.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
High Confidence Picks
IND 27 (-6.5) LV 17
Medium Confidence Picks
DET 35 (-10) CIN 20
NO 20 (-1.5) NYG 16
NYJ 24 (+2.5) DAL 23 Upset Pick +115
BUF 31 (-7.5) NE 20
Low Confidence Picks
LAC 27 (-2.5) WAS 24
MIN 16 CLE 13 (+4.5)
SEA 30 (-3.5) TB 24
PHI 23 DEN 20 (+4.5)
BAL 20 (+2.5) HOU 19 Upset Pick +125
No Confidence Picks
MIA 26 (-1) CAR 24
ARZ 21 (-7.5) TEN 13
KC 23 JAX 20 (+3.5)
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