Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

The Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back from an extended absence in this game and there is a good chance he is the healthier of these two quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson has played at far less than his usual level since returning from a hamstring injury four weeks ago. In addition to his hamstring injury, Jackson is apparently also dealing with knee and ankle injuries. His lack of health is most apparent in his rushing production, as he has averaged just 17.7 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, down significantly from the 58.5 yards per start he averaged in his career prior to the last four weeks.

The Bengals have a lot of issues and, even with Burrow returning and Jackson playing at less than 100%, we aren’t getting a ton of line value with the Bengals, who I have calculated as 6.5-point underdogs, but Burrow has historically done great as significant underdogs, going 14-3 ATS as 3.5+ underdogs in his career, making him close to an auto-bet in this situation. That trend is even more significant than that suggests because, of those three ATS losses, two came in his rookie year and one came in a game in which he got hurt in the second quarter. Barring a reaggravation of his foot injury, he should be able to keep this game close and it’s very possible that his counterpart on the other side is more likely to leave this game early due to injury.

Baltimore Ravens 30 Cincinnati Bengals 27

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +7

Confidence: High