Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Detroit Lions (7-4)

The Lions managed to come back and beat the Giants in overtime last week, but now they are in a very tough spot, as teams are just 7-25 ATS all-time on Thursdays after playing in an overtime game the previous week. That trend is powerful enough that betting against teams in that spot is almost an auto-bet, unless there is a good reason not to. In this case, there is not, as we would be getting some line value with the Packers as 3-point road underdogs even without that trend being taken into account.

This line suggests that the Lions are a slightly better team to the Packers, but they trail the Packers significantly in first down rate differential (+4.53% vs. +2.36%), while only leading the Packers slightly in yards per play differential (+1.02 vs. +0.93). The Packers are also the healthier team, while the Lions are missing key players like tight end Sam LaPorta, safety Kerby Joseph, and guard Christian Mahogany.  I like them a lot as field goal underdogs and would bet them at +2.5 as well.

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: High