Los Angeles Rams (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)

The Rams are currently the slight Super Bowl favorite, but they actually may still be a little underrated, as I think they are clearly the best team in the league. They rank 3rd in yards per play differential (+1.05), 1st in first down rate differential (+6.22%) and 1st in my schedule adjusted efficiency rank. My roster rankings have them as even better than that, ranking them close to 3 full points above any other team in the league. 

They are favored by 10 points on the road in Carolina, but this line should be even higher, especially considering the Panthers are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks, a starting safety, two of their top-3 linebackers, and a pair of starting offensive linemen due to injuries and suspension. My calculated line is Rams -13.5, giving us enough line value for the Rams to be worth betting at -10. This isn’t a big play, but the Rams are 8-3 ATS this season and I think there is still some line value with them. They should be able to get their 7th double digit victory of the season.

Update: Some -9.5s have showed up this morning. I would do a bigger bet at that number.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -9.5

Confidence: High