Pick of the Week
CLE 20 (+4.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +160
High Confidence Picks
MIA 24 (+6) TB 23 Upset Pick +220
NE 26 NYJ 17 (+13.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
NO 22 (-2.5) TEN 17
JAX 27 IND 24 (+6)
BUF 27 (-1) PHI 24
NYG 23 (-1) LV 20
Low Confidence Picks
SF 31 (-3) CHI 26
GB 19 BAL 17 (+3.5)
LAR 31 ATL 24 (+8.5)
No Confidence Picks
LAC 17 HOU 16 (+1.5)
SEA 24 CAR 17 (+7.5)
CIN 34 (-7) ARZ 27
Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11)
The Cowboys have had the biggest disparity between their offensive and defensive performance of any team in the league. While their offense has been elite, ranking 4th in yards per play and 2nd in first down rate, their defense has been as bad as their offense has been good, ranking 30th in yards per play allowed and 32nd in first down rate allowed. Fortunately, offensive performance tends to be a lot more predictive than defensive performance, especially at this stage of the season.
The Commanders are also much better on offense than defense, ranking 15th in yards per play and 16th in first down rate, as opposed to 31st in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, but they will likely be down to their third string quarterback Josh Johnson, who is a big downgrade even from backup Marcus Mariota. Johnson is in his age 39 season, has not made a start since 2021, and recorded a 28.8 PFF grade across 9 attempts in relief of Mariota last week. While the Cowboys’ elite offense should be able to move the ball with ease against the Commanders’ terrible defense, the Commanders may be unable to move the ball even against the Cowboys’ terrible defense because of their quarterback situation.
The Cowboys also seem to have found their best offensive line combination, moving Tyler Smith, their best offensive lineman, to left tackle, the most important offensive line position and previously their biggest weakness. TJ Bass then replaced Smith at his previous spot of left guard, where he is a better option than Nate Thomas or Tyler Guyton were at left tackle. This even further boosts their elite offense. I think the Cowboys are significantly undervalued as 7-point road favorites, so they are worth a big bet this week. I am taking a risk locking in this pick before the Commanders’ quarterback is announced, but it seems pretty likely it won’t be Mariota and I don’t want to risk this line going up to 7.5, which it may if/when Mariota is announced as out. If you are reading this and Mariota happens to be starting for the Commanders, I would need the line to go down to 6.5 for the Cowboys to be worth betting.
Dallas Cowboys 34 Washington Commanders 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas -7
Confidence: High
Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
The Lions’ home loss to the Steelers last week was surprising, for a couple reasons. For one, the Lions were big home favorites, favored by a full touchdown. On top of that, the Lions were coming off of a loss the previous week and historically they have done very well off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, going 23-10 ATS prior to last week, including a whopping 15 straight wins following a loss, the longest such streak in NFL history.
As a result of last week’s loss, the Lions are again in that same spot this week and, despite the fact that they struggled in this spot last week, I still think betting the Lions off of a loss is a good bet, as they are still 23-11 ATS off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, outperforming the spread by an average of 3.4 points per game. The Lions also have an easier matchup this week, facing a 7-8 Vikings team that is starting third string quarterback Max Brosmer, with starter JJ McCarthy and backup Carson Wentz both injured.
An undrafted rookie, Brosmer was horrendous in his first career start earlier this year, completing 19 of 30 for 126 yards and 4 interceptions in a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks. Brosmer looked a little better in relief of an injured McCarthy last week against the Giants and, in terms of defensive performance, the Lions are closer to the Giants than the Seahawks, but Brosmer still has an overall 14.5 QBR and a 29.7 PFF grade on 47 pass attempts this season, worst among all quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts this season.
The Vikings beat the Lions in Detroit earlier this year, but that was with a healthy McCarthy and that win against puts the Vikings in a bad spot this week, as it is tough for a significantly inferior team to hang with a divisional opponent twice in the same season. Overall, divisional underdogs of 3.5 or more cover at just a 42.7% rate with a -1.3 margin in a same-season, regular season rematch against a team they previously beat as underdogs of 3.5 or more. The Lions are also better than their record would suggest, as they are just 1-5 in one score games, despite an 8-7 record. They have seven wins by more than seven points this season and I think, in a great spot against a third string quarterback, they will get their eighth this week. They are worth a significant bet.
Detroit Lions 28 Minnesota Vikings 17
Pick against the spread: Detroit -7
Confidence: High
Denver Broncos (11-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
The Chiefs have had a disastrous two-week stretch. First, they were eliminated from playoff contention in a loss to the Chargers and lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL. Then last week, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew suffered a season ending knee injury of his own in a game in which the Chiefs lost by 17 to arguably the worst team in the league in the Tennessee Titans. As a result, the Chiefs are now 13.5-point home underdogs against the Broncos, a week after being just 5.5-point home underdogs on the advance list and, despite that, the vast majority of the public money is still on the Broncos.
As crazy as it sounds, I actually think this has created a good betting spot. The Chiefs are very injury plagued, but they still have a fair amount of talented players healthy on this roster, particularly on defense. I think their poor performance last week was more the result of a lack of effort in a bad spot, off of a playoff elimination, against a last place team, four days before a nationally televised Christmas game against a division leader, rather than a complete lack of talent. I expect a much better effort this week in a much better spot.
The Broncos also don’t have a lot of big wins by big margins, winning by more than four points just five times and by more than eight points just two times, neither of which came on the road. In fact, their average margin of victory in four road wins is just 3.75 points. Bad teams like the Raiders (twice), Jets, Giants, Titans, and Commanders have all played the Broncos within 8 points this season and I like the Chiefs’ chances of at least keeping it within 13. This is a high confidence pick.
Denver Broncos 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13
Pick against the spread: Kansas City +13.5
Confidence: High
Pick of the Week
LAR 27 (+1.5) SEA 23 Upset Pick +105
High Confidence Picks
DET 33 (-7) PIT 20
SF 24 IND 23 (+6)
Medium Confidence Picks
NO 21 (-5.5) NYJ 13
DAL 28 (-1.5) LAC 24
HOU 24 LV 13 (+14.5)
KC 23 (-2.5) TEN 17
Low Confidence Picks
CIN 30 (-4) MIA 24
BUF 24 CLE 15 (+10.5)
ATL 24 ARZ 23 (+3)
TB 24 CAR 23 (+3)
DEN 20 JAX 17 (+3.5)
No Confidence Picks
MIN 24 NYG 23 (+2.5)
BAL 30 (-3) NE 27
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)
The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against the Giants and Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Commanders have played three games against the Giants and Raiders this season and are 3-0 in those three games, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota starting two of those three games. That suggests that, even with Mariota remaining under center, the Commanders are on a different level than the only two teams the Eagles have beaten by more than seven points this season. The Eagles’ two wins by more than seven points also came at home, while this game is in Washington.
All of that suggests that we are getting some line value with the Commanders as 7-point home underdogs. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is enough for the Commanders to be worth betting, given that they will be playing without talented left tackle Laremy Tunsil in this game for the first time all season, which figures to be a massive loss for this offense. The Commanders are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is only a low confidence pick.
Update: +7.5 is available in some places. If you can get that, I think the Commanders are bettable.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Commanders 19
Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5
Confidence: Medium
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)
A couple weeks ago, I bet on the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears and they covered, but a lot has changed in the past couple weeks. For one, while the Packers did cover in that game, it was closer than I would have liked, as the Packers needed a late game interception to seal a 7-point victory. The Bears then followed that game up by playing arguably their most impressive game of the season, dominating the Browns by a score of 31-3. The Browns are obviously not a tough opponent, but it was by far the biggest margin of victory that the Bears had in any of their games, as they previously had a lack of blowout victories, despite an overall relatively weak schedule.
Meanwhile, the Packers lost in Denver last week and, more importantly, they had several key players suffer major injuries. Their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is out for the season, while 10 other players are listed questionable this week on their injury report. Most notably, their top running back Josh Jacobs, their best offensive lineman Zach Tom, and talented starting safety Evan Williams did not practice all week and are likely on the wrong side of questionable.
The Bears are missing Luther Burden, who was their leading receiver in the first matchup, but they could be getting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds back from a 4-game absence and, even if they don’t, they obviously are in a much better injury position than the Packers are, relative to a couple weeks ago. Additionally, this game is obviously in Chicago, whereas the previous matchup was in Green Bay, where the Packers have a big advantage late in the season. In week 10 or later, the Packers are 22-11 ATS at home since head coach Matt LaFleur’s first season in 2019, but they do not have the same advantage on the road.
None of this is to say I want to bet the Bears this week. The Packers still have significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.31% vs. -0.26%) and yards per play differential (+0.88 vs. -0.36). However, despite that, I would take them on this even line for pick ‘em purposes, given the current injury state of both teams. Depending on the final inactives and where this line ends up, I may change this pick, but, for now, the Bears are my pick.
Update: Tom and Williams are out for the Packers, but I was expecting that and Jacobs is active. Despite that, this line has moved to favor Chicago by 1.5. This is still a no confidence pick, but I am changing to Green Bay.
Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23
Pick against the spread: Green Bay +1.5
Confidence: None
Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Both of these teams are 11-3, but the Rams have a significant edge in first down rate differential, +7.71% vs +5.54%, which is much more predictive than win/loss record. The Seahawks have a slight edge in yards per play differential, +1.51 vs. +1.23, but first down rate differential is more predictive. The Rams have also faced a tougher schedule overall and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights first down rate differential higher than yards per play differential, the Rams have about a 4 point edge over the Seahawks.
The Rams are on the road in this game, but they have limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, have consistently outperformed the spread on the road since relocating in 2017, going 46-37 with a +1.4 per game differential against the spread. I like the Rams for at least a small bet in this game, with the Rams just needing to win to cover the spread. Depending on whether or not questionable players play (wide receiver Davante Adams and interior defender Braden Fiske for the Rams, and left tackle Charles Cross for the Seahawks), I would consider increasing this bet.
Update: Charles Cross has been ruled out for the Seahawks, which is a huge loss for their offense. Despite that, this line has shifted to +1.5. I like the money line more than the spread, but this is a high confidence pick either way. Davante Adams is likely to be out for the Rams, but I was being conservative with my original pick and factoring his absence into the equation and not Cross’ absence. I am also considering this for Pick of the Week.
Final Update: After further consideration of this weekend’s games, this is my Pick of the Week at +1.5.
Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Pick of the Week
PHI 20 LV 13 (+11.5)
High Confidence Picks
CIN 30 (+3) BAL 27 Upset Pick +130
NO 23 (+3) CAR 20 Upset Pick +130
SEA 26 IND 17 (+14)
HOU 20 ARZ 13 (+10.5)
Medium Confidence Picks
CHI 22 CLE 17 (+7.5)
SF 28 (-12) TEN 13
Low Confidence Picks
JAX 24 (-13) NYJ 9
LAR 34 (-5.5) DET 27
PIT 27 (-3) MIA 23
KC 24 LAC 20 (+6)
No Confidence Picks
BUF 24 NE 23 (+1.5)
NYG 23 (-2.5) WAS 20
DAL 26 MIN 21 (+6.5)
GB 24 DEN 23 (+2.5)
Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
The Buccaneers are 7-6, but they rank 27th in yards per play differential (-0.64) and 23rd in first down rate differential (-1.88%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their record is largely the result of going 5-0 in games decided by 3 points or fewer and they have just two wins by more than 3 points, which is relevant, with this line at 4.5. The Falcons are only 4-9 and might seem like the kind of team that the Buccaneers can beat by more than 5 points, but they have been much better than their record in yards per play differential, ranking 11th at +0.21, and first down rate play differential, ranking 14th at +0.31%. The Falcons are worth a bet and, if the line stays around the same and either left tackle Tristan Wirfs or wide receiver Mike Evans do not return for the Buccaneers, I would make this an even bigger bet.
Early Locked Bets: NO +3, CIN +3, LV +11.5
Update: Evans and Wirfs are playing, but Evans may be on a pitch count and the Buccaneers are also missing tight end Cade Otton and safety Tykee Smith. Despite that, this line has moved up to 6. I am upping this to a high confidence bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Atlanta Falcons 23
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6
Confidence: High
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