Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

Both of these teams are 11-3, but the Rams have a significant edge in first down rate differential, +7.71% vs +5.54%, which is much more predictive than win/loss record. The Seahawks have a slight edge in yards per play differential, +1.51 vs. +1.23, but first down rate differential is more predictive. The Rams have also faced a tougher schedule overall and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights first down rate differential higher than yards per play differential, the Rams have about a 4 point edge over the Seahawks.

The Rams are on the road in this game, but they have limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, have consistently outperformed the spread on the road since relocating in 2017, going 46-37 with a +1.4 per game differential against the spread. I like the Rams for at least a small bet in this game, with the Rams just needing to win to cover the spread. Depending on whether or not questionable players play (wide receiver Davante Adams and interior defender Braden Fiske for the Rams, and left tackle Charles Cross for the Seahawks), I would consider increasing this bet.

Update: Charles Cross has been ruled out for the Seahawks, which is a huge loss for their offense. Despite that, this line has shifted to +1.5. I like the money line more than the spread, but this is a high confidence pick either way. Davante Adams is likely to be out for the Rams, but I was being conservative with my original pick and factoring his absence into the equation and not Cross’ absence. I am also considering this for Pick of the Week.

Final Update: After further consideration of this weekend’s games, this is my Pick of the Week.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week