Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)

A couple weeks ago, I bet on the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears and they covered, but a lot has changed in the past couple weeks. For one, while the Packers did cover in that game, it was closer than I would have liked, as the Packers needed a late game interception to seal a 7-point victory. The Bears then followed that game up by playing arguably their most impressive game of the season, dominating the Browns by a score of 31-3. The Browns are obviously not a tough opponent, but it was by far the biggest margin of victory that the Bears had in any of their games, as they previously had a lack of blowout victories, despite an overall relatively weak schedule. 

Meanwhile, the Packers lost in Denver last week and, more importantly, they had several key players suffer major injuries. Their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is out for the season, while 10 other players are listed questionable this week on their injury report. Most notably, their top running back Josh Jacobs, their best offensive lineman Zach Tom, and talented starting safety Evan Williams did not practice all week and are likely on the wrong side of questionable. 

The Bears are missing Luther Burden, who was their leading receiver in the first matchup, but they could be getting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds back from a 4-game absence and, even if they don’t, they obviously are in a much better injury position than the Packers are, relative to a couple weeks ago. Additionally, this game is obviously in Chicago, whereas the previous matchup was in Green Bay, where the Packers have a big advantage late in the season. In week 10 or later, the Packers are 22-11 ATS at home since head coach Matt LaFleur’s first season in 2019, but they do not have the same advantage on the road. 

None of this is to say I want to bet the Bears this week. The Packers still have significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.31% vs. -0.26%) and yards per play differential (+0.88 vs. -0.36). However, despite that, I would take them on this even line for pick ‘em purposes, given the current injury state of both teams. Depending on the final inactives and where this line ends up, I may change this pick, but, for now, the Bears are my pick.

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: None