Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)

The Eagles don’t have a lot of blowout victories this season, with just two of their nine wins coming by more than seven points, which is relevant, considering this line favors the Eagles by seven. Those two wins by seven points came against the Giants and Raiders, who are among the worst teams in the league. The Commanders have played three games against the Giants and Raiders this season and are 3-0 in those three games, even with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota starting two of those three games. That suggests that, even with Mariota remaining under center, the Commanders are on a different level than the only two teams the Eagles have beaten by more than seven points this season. The Eagles’ two wins by more than seven points also came at home, while this game is in Washington. 

All of that suggests that we are getting some line value with the Commanders as 7-point home underdogs. Unfortunately, I don’t think it is enough for the Commanders to be worth betting, given that they will be playing without talented left tackle Laremy Tunsil in this game for the first time all season, which figures to be a massive loss for this offense. The Commanders are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is only a low confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Commanders 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Low