Denver Broncos (11-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)

The Chiefs have had a disastrous two-week stretch. First, they were eliminated from playoff contention in a loss to the Chargers and lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL. Then last week, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew suffered a season ending knee injury of his own in a game in which the Chiefs lost by 17 to arguably the worst team in the league in the Tennessee Titans. As a result, the Chiefs are now 13.5-point home underdogs against the Broncos, a week after being just 5.5-point home underdogs on the advance list and, despite that, the vast majority of the public money is still on the Broncos. 

As crazy as it sounds, I actually think this has created a good betting spot. The Chiefs are very injury plagued, but they still have a fair amount of talented players healthy on this roster, particularly on defense. I think their poor performance last week was more the result of a lack of effort in a bad spot, off of a playoff elimination, against a last place team, four days before a nationally televised Christmas game against a division leader, rather than a complete lack of talent. I expect a much better effort this week in a much better spot. 

The Broncos also don’t have a lot of big wins by big margins, winning by more than four points just five times and by more than eight points just two times, neither of which came on the road. In fact, their average margin of victory in four road wins is just 3.75 points. Bad teams like the Raiders (twice), Jets, Giants, Titans, and Commanders have all played the Broncos within 8 points this season and I like the Chiefs’ chances of at least keeping it within 13. This is a high confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +13.5

Confidence: High