Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)

The Lions’ home loss to the Steelers last week was surprising, for a couple reasons. For one, the Lions were big home favorites, favored by a full touchdown. On top of that, the Lions were coming off of a loss the previous week and historically they have done very well off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, going 23-10 ATS prior to last week, including a whopping 15 straight wins following a loss, the longest such streak in NFL history. 

As a result of last week’s loss, the Lions are again in that same spot this week and, despite the fact that they struggled in this spot last week, I still think betting the Lions off of a loss is a good bet, as they are still 23-11 ATS off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, outperforming the spread by an average of 3.4 points per game. The Lions also have an easier matchup this week, facing a 7-8 Vikings team that is starting third string quarterback Max Brosmer, with starter JJ McCarthy and backup Carson Wentz both injured.

An undrafted rookie, Brosmer was horrendous in his first career start earlier this year, completing 19 of 30 for 126 yards and 4 interceptions in a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks. Brosmer looked a little better in relief of an injured McCarthy last week against the Giants and, in terms of defensive performance, the Lions are closer to the Giants than the Seahawks, but Brosmer still has an overall 14.5 QBR and a 29.7 PFF grade on 47 pass attempts this season, worst among all quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts this season.

The Vikings beat the Lions in Detroit earlier this year, but that was with a healthy McCarthy and that win against puts the Vikings in a bad spot this week, as it is tough for a significantly inferior team to hang with a divisional opponent twice in the same season. Overall, divisional underdogs of 3.5 or more cover at just a 42.7% rate with a -1.3 margin in a same-season, regular season rematch against a team they previously beat as underdogs of 3.5 or more. The Lions are also better than their record would suggest, as they are just 1-5 in one score games, despite an 8-7 record. They have seven wins by more than seven points this season and I think, in a great spot against a third string quarterback, they will get their eighth this week. They are worth a significant bet.

Detroit Lions 28 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: High