Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11)

The Cowboys have had the biggest disparity between their offensive and defensive performance of any team in the league. While their offense has been elite, ranking 4th in yards per play and 2nd in first down rate, their defense has been as bad as their offense has been good, ranking 30th in yards per play allowed and 32nd in first down rate allowed. Fortunately, offensive performance tends to be a lot more predictive than defensive performance, especially at this stage of the season. 

The Commanders are also much better on offense than defense, ranking 15th in yards per play and 16th in first down rate, as opposed to 31st in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, but they will likely be down to their third string quarterback Josh Johnson, who is a big downgrade even from backup Marcus Mariota. Johnson is in his age 39 season, has not made a start since 2021, and recorded a 28.8 PFF grade across 9 attempts in relief of Mariota last week.  While the Cowboys’ elite offense should be able to move the ball with ease against the Commanders’ terrible defense, the Commanders may be unable to move the ball even against the Cowboys’ terrible defense because of their quarterback situation. 

The Cowboys also seem to have found their best offensive line combination, moving Tyler Smith, their best offensive lineman, to left tackle, the most important offensive line position and previously their biggest weakness. TJ Bass then replaced Smith at his previous spot of left guard, where he is a better option than Nate Thomas or Tyler Guyton were at left tackle. This even further boosts their elite offense. I think the Cowboys are significantly undervalued as 7-point road favorites, so they are worth a big bet this week. I am taking a risk locking in this pick before the Commanders’ quarterback is announced, but it seems pretty likely it won’t be Mariota and I don’t want to risk this line going up to 7.5, which it may if/when Mariota is announced as out. If you are reading this and Mariota happens to be starting for the Commanders, I would need the line to go down to 6.5 for the Cowboys to be worth betting.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Washington Commanders 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: High