Year: 2025

New York Giants at New England Patriots: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2)

The Giants have a 2-10 record and the Patriots have a 10-2 record, but the Giants have five losses by one score, despite facing arguably the toughest schedule in the league, while the Patriots have six wins by one score, despite facing arguably the easiest schedule in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, I only have a 4.5-point gap between these two teams and these two teams are even closer than that suggests in their current state.

The Patriots have been relatively injury free this season, but will be without a pair of starting offensive linemen in Will Campbell and Jared Wilson as well as talented interior defender Milton Williams in this game, which is the most injuries they have had at any one point this season. Meanwhile the Giants have dealt with a lot of injuries this season and are relatively healthy this week, with quarterback Jaxson Dart, running back Tyrone Tracy, offensive tackles Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eleumunor, center John Michael Schmitz, safeties Jevon Holland and Tyler Nubin, and cornerbacks Paulson Adebo and Cor’Dale Flott all in the lineup after missing time earlier this season. My calculated line has the Patriots only favored by 3.5 points here at home, so we are getting great line value with the Giants as 7.5 point underdogs. This should be another close game for two teams that have played a lot of close games this season.

New England Patriots 23 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5

Confidence: High

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

This line, favoring the Chargers by 10 points, is too high. The Chargers’ offense has been significantly worse this season in games in which their top offensive lineman Joe Alt doesn’t play the whole game, scoring 19.9 points per game, as opposed to 26.8 when he does play. The Raiders have a terrible offense, but their defense has actually been pretty solid this season, ranking 12th in yards per play allowed and 7th yards per play allowed, so they should be able to hold the Chargers to a pretty low point total, which should allow the Raiders to keep this game close as big underdogs.

When these two teams met earlier this season, the Chargers only won 11, but that was with Alt, in a game in which the Raiders did not have stud tight end Brock Bowers at full strength. The Chargers were on the road in that game and now are at home, but that doesn’t really benefit them, as they are 35-34 (29-36 ATS) at home since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, as opposed to 39-36 (40-31 ATS) on the road. It is very likely there will be more Raiders fans in the crowd than Chargers fans. The Raiders are worth a big bet this week at +10 and are worth a bet at +9.5 as well.

Los Angeles Chargers 17 Las Vegas Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +10

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)

The Rams are currently the slight Super Bowl favorite, but they actually may still be a little underrated, as I think they are clearly the best team in the league. They rank 3rd in yards per play differential (+1.05), 1st in first down rate differential (+6.22%) and 1st in my schedule adjusted efficiency rank. My roster rankings have them as even better than that, ranking them close to 3 full points above any other team in the league. 

They are favored by 10 points on the road in Carolina, but this line should be even higher, especially considering the Panthers are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks, a starting safety, two of their top-3 linebackers, and a pair of starting offensive linemen due to injuries and suspension. My calculated line is Rams -13.5, giving us enough line value for the Rams to be worth betting at -10. This isn’t a big play, but the Rams are 8-3 ATS this season and I think there is still some line value with them. They should be able to get their 7th double digit victory of the season.

Update: Some -9.5s have showed up this morning. I would do a bigger bet at that number.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -9.5

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Detroit Lions (7-4)

The Lions managed to come back and beat the Giants in overtime last week, but now they are in a very tough spot, as teams are just 7-25 ATS all-time on Thursdays after playing in an overtime game the previous week. That trend is powerful enough that betting against teams in that spot is almost an auto-bet, unless there is a good reason not to. In this case, there is not, as we would be getting some line value with the Packers as 3-point road underdogs even without that trend being taken into account.

This line suggests that the Lions are a slightly better team to the Packers, but they trail the Packers significantly in first down rate differential (+4.53% vs. +2.36%), while only leading the Packers slightly in yards per play differential (+1.02 vs. +0.93). The Packers are also the healthier team, while the Lions are missing key players like tight end Sam LaPorta, safety Kerby Joseph, and guard Christian Mahogany.  I like them a lot as field goal underdogs and would bet them at +2.5 as well.

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: High

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)

This is probably the most confusing line of the week. In other cases when my calculated line is very different from the actual line, I can understand why, but in this case I genuinely don’t understand it. The Eagles have just one win by more than a touchdown this season and it came against a 2-win Giants team. Despite that, the Eagles are favored by a touchdown in this game against the 8-3 Bears. 

The Bears are not as good as their record, going 6-1 in one-score games, but the same can be said of the Eagles. The Bears rank 24th in first down rate differential (-1.92%) and 20th in yards per play differential (-0.36), but the Eagles rank just 19th (-1.24%) and 16th (-0.20) respectively in those two metrics. The Eagles have had the harder schedule, but are only about a point better than the Bears in my schedule adjusted efficiency.

My roster rankings also only have these two teams about a point apart. The Eagles are better since getting Nolan Smith back from injury and since adding Jaelen Phillips via trade, but the Bears seem likely to get their top cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back from injury. Even if they don’t, the Bears are still worth a big bet at +7 since this figures to be yet another close game for two teams that have played a lot of close games.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

The Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back from an extended absence in this game and there is a good chance he is the healthier of these two quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson has played at far less than his usual level since returning from a hamstring injury four weeks ago. In addition to his hamstring injury, Jackson is apparently also dealing with knee and ankle injuries. His lack of health is most apparent in his rushing production, as he has averaged just 17.7 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, down significantly from the 58.5 yards per start he averaged in his career prior to the last four weeks.

The Bengals have a lot of issues and, even with Burrow returning and Jackson playing at less than 100%, we aren’t getting a ton of line value with the Bengals, who I have calculated as 6.5-point underdogs, but Burrow has historically done great as significant underdogs, going 14-3 ATS as 3.5+ underdogs in his career, making him close to an auto-bet in this situation. That trend is even more significant than that suggests because, of those three ATS losses, two came in his rookie year and one came in a game in which he got hurt in the second quarter. Barring a reaggravation of his foot injury, he should be able to keep this game close and it’s very possible that his counterpart on the other side is more likely to leave this game early due to injury.

Baltimore Ravens 30 Cincinnati Bengals 27

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +7

Confidence: High

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)

The Cowboys have been my Pick of the Week the past two weeks and I like them a lot again this week. The conventional thinking is that they have a great offense and a terrible defense and, in fact, they do rank 3rd in my schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in my schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. However, offensive efficiency is more predictive on a season long basis than defensive efficiency and, on top of that, the Cowboys’ defense has gotten a lot better in recent weeks.

Since their week 9 bye, the Cowboys have gotten safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, cornerback Shavon Revel, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown back from injury, while adding defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson via trade. That’s legitimately six starters that they have now that they didn’t for most or all of the first half of the season and that makes their defense a lot better than it was, particularly the addition of Williams, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The Cowboys also have great special teams and, overall, have a top-10 roster, which is not how they are being talked about, even after a blowout win in Las Vegas and an upset win over the Eagles.

The Cowboys’ schedule gets even harder this week with the Chiefs coming to town, but the Cowboys aren’t far behind the Chiefs in my roster rankings and could still keep this one close or even pull another upset, as 3.5-point home favorites, especially since the Chiefs are in a terrible spot, playing on Thursday after playing in an overtime game the previous week. Teams are just 7-25 ATS in this spot all-time, as it is very tough to play on a short turnaround after a long game. The Cowboys are my Pick of the Week again this week.

Dallas Cowboys 26 Kansas City Chiefs 24 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

2025 Week 12 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

DAL 25 (+3.5) PHI 20 Upset Pick +145

High Confidence Picks

IND 26 (+3.5) KC 24 Upset Pick +155

SEA 26 (-11.5) TEN 10

Medium Confidence Picks

LAR 31 (-6.5) TB 22

NE 33 CIN 28 (+7.5)

Low Confidence Picks

JAX 24 ARZ 23 (+3)

LV 13 CLE 10 (+4)

BAL 28 (-13.5) NYJ 13

SF 31 CAR 24 (+7.5)

CHI 23 PIT 21 (+3)

DET 28 NYG 16 (+14)

No Confidence Picks

BUF 25 HOU 20 (+5.5)

GB 19 MIN 13 (+6.5)

NO 21 ATL 20 (+2.5)

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2025 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans are 5-5, but most of their wins have been by multiple scores, while most of their losses have been by one-score, giving them a +57 point differential (9th in the NFL), a +1.43% first down rate differential (9th), and a +0.53 yards per play differential (8th). The Bills have two more wins than them, but aren’t much better in most of those metrics, ranking 8th in point differential (+63), 6th in first down rate differential (+3.07%), and 7th in yards per play differential (+0.68). However, the Texans are without starting quarterback CJ Stroud and stud defensive back Jalen Pitre for the third straight game. This line accurately reflects that though, favoring the Bills by 5.5 at home, which is my exact calculated line. If I have to pick a side, I would pick the Texans, but only for a no confidence pick.

Early Locked Bets: DAL +3.5, IND +3.5

Buffalo Bills 25 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +5.5

Confidence: None

2025 Week 11 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

DAL 27 (-3) LV 20

High Confidence Picks

BUF 31 (-5.5) TB 23

LAC 23 (-3) JAX 17

Medium Confidence Picks

PIT 27 CIN 24 (+5.5)

NE 24 NYJ 15 (+13)

HOU 16 TEN 13 (+6)

BAL 22 CLE 17 (+7.5)

Low Confidence Picks

GB 23 NYG 17 (+7.5)

ATL 20 CAR 17 (+3.5)

MIN 26 CHI 24 (+3)

LAR 27 SEA 24 (+3.5)

SF 27 (-3) ARZ 23

KC 24 DEN 20 (+4.5)

No Confidence Picks

PHI 26 DET 24 (+2.5)

MIA 26 WAS 24 (+2.5)

On a personal note, a member of the NFL picks community, Gerry Shultz, has fallen on hard times and needs some support. Here is a link to his GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-gerrys-parkinsons-and-lewy-body-dementia-care Any support is appreciated!