Pick of the Week
LAR 24 (-3) JAX 16
High Confidence Picks
DEN 24 (-7) NYG 13
CHI 24 NO 23 (+5)
GB 23 ARZ 20 (+7)
Medium Confidence Picks
IND 23 (+1.5) LAC 20 Upset Pick +105
DET 31 TB 27 (+6.5)
SEA 23 (-3) HOU 17
DAL 34 (-1) WAS 31
Low Confidence Picks
ATL 24 (+2.5) SF 23 Upset Pick +110
CLE 23 (-2.5) MIA 20
KC 33 (-11.5) LV 20
No Confidence Picks
NE 26 TEN 20 (+7)
PHI 20 MIN 19 (+2.5)
CAR 24 NYJ 23 (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
The Steelers are 4-1, but they have been pretty underwhelming so far this season. They are negative in both first down rate differential (-1.39%) and yards per play differential (-0.08), despite a below average schedule. Their turnover margin of +7 is 3rd best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have high week-to-week variance. Fumble margins in particular have very high week-to-week variance and the Steelers are a league leading +5 in that metric. That is despite the fact that they have only caused 2 more fumbles than they have committed, as they have recovered an unsustainably high 83.3% of fumbles in their games.
The Steelers’ schedule doesn’t get any harder this week, as the Bengals as one of the worst teams in the league, but this is also a spot in which the Steelers tend to disappoint, as they are 22-38 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more in the Mike Tomlin era, including 10-26 ATS after a win the previous week. Unfortunately, I don’t think we are getting enough line value with the Bengals at +5.5 for them to be worth betting, unless we get some good news on Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals’ best defensive player, who didn’t practice all week. If the line shifts significantly or he is able to play at close to 100%, I will update this pick.
Early bet locks: NO +5, DEN -7
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Cincinnati Bengals 17
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +5.5
Confidence: Low
Pick of the Week
CLE 17 (+6.5) PIT 16 Upset Pick +225
High Confidence Picks
SEA 24 (PK) JAX 20
Medium Confidence Picks
LAR 24 BAL 20 (+7.5)
WAS 27 (-4.5) CHI 20
NE 24 NO 23 (+3.5)
IND 27 ARZ 21 (+8.5)
Low Confidence Picks
GB 27 (-14) CIN 10
KC 30 (-2.5) DET 27
LV 20 (-4) TEN 14
DAL 28 (-3) CAR 24
No Confidence Picks
LAC 24 MIA 20 (+4.5)
TB 27 SF 24 (+3.5)
BUF 31 ATL 27 (+4.5)
Denver Broncos (3-2) vs. New York Jets (0-5) in London
Normally the Broncos would be in a good spot in this game, as favorites tend to cover in international games, especially big favorites, with favorites of a touchdown or more going 9-2 ATS. However, the Broncos could be a little flat, facing a winless team after a big upset win in Philadelphia last week. Teams cover at just a 41.1% rate as favorites of 4 or more after an upset win as underdogs of 4 or more, while winless teams tend to be a good betting proposition, as teams 0-4 or worse cover at a 55.7% rate.
The Jets also haven’t been as bad as their record suggests in terms of yards per play differential (23rd at -0.43) and first down rate differential (16th at +0.31%), which are more predictive than win/loss records. Their biggest issue has been the turnover margin, in which they rank dead last at -8, but that tends to have high week-to-week variance. A big part of why they haven’t been so bad in yards per play differential and first down rate differential is their performance in garbage time, but that can’t be ignored when a line is a full touchdown.
The Jets have lost three of their five games by fewer than 7 points, including 2-point losses to a pair of decent or better teams in the Steelers and Buccaneers. On the other hand, the Broncos don’t normally take their foot off the gas when winning by multiple scores, ranking tied for 2nd in the NFL with 10 wins by 8 points or more over the past two seasons, so I am still comfortable picking them for pick ‘em purposes, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Jets made this one close and covered the spread, so I wouldn’t bet on the Broncos.
Week 6 Early Locked Bet: CLE +6.5
Denver Broncos 27 New York Jets 17
Pick against the spread: Denver -7
Confidence: Low
Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)
The Eagles are a tough team to be confident in either way. They are defending Super Bowl Champions and they are 4-1 despite one of the toughest schedules in the league, but they haven’t looked particularly good in any of their games. All five of their games have been decided by seven points or fewer and they rank 24th in first down rate differential (-2.01%) and 28th in yards per play differential (-0.92). Even with their tough schedule factored in, they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency.
However, my roster rankings suggest they should be a lot better than that (6th) and it’s worth noting that by far their easiest game of the season, even on the road, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this is when they end up breaking out, as the Giants are just 1-4 and rank 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency and in 26th my roster rankings. However, with this line favoring the Eagles by a full touchdown, we’re not getting any value with them and it’s tough to know what to expect from them, given the mismatch between their talent level and their statistical output, so this is a no confidence pick.
Update: The final inactive list is not good for the Eagles. Jalen Carter is out, while Jermaine Eluemunor is in, after both were listed as questionable. Despite this, this line is still at 7.5 in some places. I would rather pick the Giants +7.5 than Eagles -7, but it’s a no confidence pick either way.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5
Confidence: None
Pick of the Week
High Confidence Picks
IND 27 (-6.5) LV 17
Medium Confidence Picks
DET 35 (-10) CIN 20
NO 20 (-1.5) NYG 16
NYJ 24 (+2.5) DAL 23 Upset Pick +115
BUF 31 (-7.5) NE 20
Low Confidence Picks
LAC 27 (-2.5) WAS 24
MIN 16 CLE 13 (+4.5)
SEA 30 (-3.5) TB 24
PHI 23 DEN 20 (+4.5)
BAL 20 (+2.5) HOU 19 Upset Pick +125
No Confidence Picks
MIA 26 (-1) CAR 24
ARZ 21 (-7.5) TEN 13
KC 23 JAX 20 (+3.5)
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
The Rams are 3-1, but they could be 4-0 if not for special teams miscues against the Eagles. Even with that loss taken into account, I would argue the Rams are right behind the undefeated Eagles and Bills as the third best team in the league. They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.42 and rank 4th in first down rate differential at +4.17%. The 49ers are also 3-1 and rank 6th in yards per play differential at +0.96 and 2nd in first down rate differential at +4.85%, but they have faced a much easier schedule than the Rams.
The 49ers also come into this game much more depleted than the 49ers. Somehow the 49ers will be without their top-3 wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Aiyuk, their top tight end George Kittle, their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, starting left guard Ben Bartch, top edge defender Nick Bosa, and starting safety Malik Mustapha. The Rams, on the other hand, will only be missing one key player, right tackle Rob Havenstein. That gives the Rams a significant 9-point edge in my roster rankings.
Making matters especially tough for the 49ers is that they will have to travel on a short week with so many replacement players in the lineup. Short weeks almost always favor a significantly better team at home, even in matchups between familiar division opponents. Divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more are 30-6 straight up on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, winning by an average margin of 12.3 points per game and covering at a 58.3% rate. This spread opened at 3.5 and slowly crept up to 7 as bad injury news came out for the 49ers, but I don’t think the line has been moved high enough, as sportsbooks are wary of creating too big of a middle by moving this line up too high. Let’s take advantage of that with a Thursday Night Football Pick of the Week.
Week 5 Early Locked Picks: IND -6.5, DET -10
Los Angeles Rams 30 San Francisco 49ers 17
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7
Confidence: Pick of the Week
145-93 ATS (60.9%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time
Pick of the Week
High Confidence Picks
BUF 34 (-14.5) NO 13
Medium Confidence Picks
LV 27 (-1) CHI 22
DEN 21 CIN 17 (+7.5)
LAR 31 IND 30 (+3.5)
NE 28 (-5.5) CAR 20
Low Confidence Picks
HOU 16 TEN 10 (+7.5)
LAC 22 NYG 17 (+6.5)
GB 26 DAL 20 (+7)
MIA 20 (-2.5) NYJ 17
PHI 27 TB 24 (+3.5)
SF 31 (-3) JAX 27
No Confidence Picks
BAL 27 (-2.5) KC 24
ATL 23 (-2) WAS 20
DET 23 (-9.5) CLE 13
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) in Dublin
The Steelers are 2-1, but they have a negative point differential at -5, despite recovering all eight fumbles that have occurred in their three games. Recovering fumbles is a statistically random event and recovering eight in a row has a probability of about 0.4%. Like anything, there can be outliers, but the Steelers have actually been below 50% in terms of fumble recovery rate in three of the past four seasons, so there is no reason to expect this to continue. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive and predictable, the Steelers rank 30th and 29th respectively at -6.17% and -1.30 respectively. The Vikings, meanwhile, are positive in both of those metrics at +0.68 and +1.69% respectively.
The Vikings are favored in this game, but only by 2.5 points. My calculated line has the Vikings favored by 6 in this neutral site game, so we’re getting a lot of line value with them. True 6-point favorites have about a 62.46% chance of covering as 2.5-point favorites. On top of that, favorites tend to cover in neutral site international games historically, going 37-21 ATS all-time, better teams tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances. Getting good line value with a team that is in a good spot as well makes for a strong betting situation, so I like the Vikings a lot this week. This is my Pick of the Week.
Minnesota Vikings 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1)
Going into the season, I thought the Cardinals were the sleeper team in the NFC West, but the Seahawks have been the better team through three weeks, with a first down rate differential of +5.01% and a yards per play differential of +0.97, as opposed to -1.90% and -0.12 for the Cardinals. The Seahawks took a big risk this off-season swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold at quarterback, but it seems to have paid off as Darnold has been an upgrade thus far. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have dealt with a lot of injuries, with left tackle Paris Johnson, running back James Conner, cornerbacks Will Johnson and Garrett Williams, and interior defender Walter Nolen, all expected starters, missing time already this season.
Paris Johnson could be back this week, but that’s not a guarantee and the Seahawks are getting healthier, with top cornerback Devon Witherspoon and top safety Julian Love set to return this week. With the Seahawks favored by 1.5 points on the road, I would need Paris Johnson to be inactive for the Seahawks to be worth betting, as the Cardinals’ offense was significantly worse with him out of the lineup last season, but the Seahawks should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes regardless.
Seattle Seahawks 23 Arizona Cardinals 20
Pick against the spread: Seattle -1.5
Confidence: Low
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