2025 Week 3 NFL Picks

142-89 ATS (61.5%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.4% ATS all-time

Pick of the Week

NE 24 (+1.5) PIT 17 Upset Pick +105

High Confidence Picks

LV 23 (+3) WAS 20 Upset Pick +130

Medium Confidence Picks

SEA 19 NO 14 (+7.5)

ATL 26 CAR 24 (+5.5)

ARZ 24 (+3) SF 23 Upset Pick +125

MIN 23 (-3) CIN 17

Low Confidence Picks

GB 23 CLE 17 (+8.5)

IND 23 TEN 20 (+4.5)

PHI 23 LAR 20 (+3.5)

LAC 26 DEN 24 (+3)

BAL 33 (-4.5) DET 27

BUF 34 (-11.5) MIA 20

No Confidence Picks

DAL 35 (-1) CHI 33

KC 23 NYG 17 (+6.5)

TB 24 (-6.5) NYJ 17

JAX 17 HOU 16 (+1.5)

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2025 Week 3 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are in a good spot as big divisional favorites on Thursday Night Football, as teams are 38-20 ATS as home favorites of 7.5+ in this spot as long as both teams are on short rest. On top of that, the Dolphins have a history of struggling on the road against good opponents, as they are 1-7 ATS against winning teams on the road over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Bills in the past week, with this line swinging from favoring the Bills by 8.5 on the early line to now favoring them by 11.5. My calculated line has the Bills favored by 10.5, which isn’t enough line value to consider picking the Dolphins in a bad spot, but it’s enough to convince me not to bet on the Bills. Buffalo is still my pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 34 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -11.5

Confidence: Low

2025 Week 2 NFL Picks

139-85 ATS (62.1%) on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) since 2023, 57.6% ATS all-time

Pick of the Week

BAL 34 (-11.5) CLE 13

High Confidence Picks

ARZ 34 (-6.5) CAR 20

LV 28 (+3.5) LAC 26 Upset Pick +155

SEA 24 (+3.5) PIT 23 Upset Pick +145

Medium Confidence Picks

DAL 28 (-4.5) NYG 20

KC 23 (+1.5) PHI 20 Upset Pick +105

CIN 28 JAX 27 (+3.5)

MIN 26 ATL 24 (+3.5)

Low Confidence Picks

GB 21 (-3) WAS 17

NE 24 MIA 23 (+2.5) Upset Pick +110

IND 17 DEN 16 (+2.5) Upset Pick +110

TB 19 (+2.5) HOU 17 Upset Pick +120

BUF 25 NYJ 20 (+6.5)

DET 27 (-6) CHI 20

No Confidence Picks

LAR 21 TEN 16 (+5.5)

SF 20 (-3) NO 17

Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers: 2025 Week 2 NFL Pick

Washington Commanders (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

The Packers are in a good spot this week. Non-divisional home favorites cover at a 60.7% rate on Thursday Night Football because it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week, unless it is a divisional matchup between familiar opponents or unless the visitor is the superior team, neither of which are the case in this game. Unfortunately, the Packers enter this game very banged up, likely to be without top cornerback Nate Hobbs and a pair of starting offensive linemen in Aaron Banks and Zach Tom, the latter of whom is their best offensive lineman. None of those three have been ruled out, but Banks and Tom did not practice all week, while Hobbs did not play week 1 and has yet to practice in full since having off-season knee surgery.

My calculated line has the Packers favored by 3 in their current injury situation, but this line has remained at 3.5, despite the Packers likely absences, which is a big deal because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. If the Packers get some good injury news or this line drops to 3, I may increase the confidence of this pick, but for now this is a no confidence pick and, if both teams were on regular rest, I would be taking the Commanders +3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3 in some places so I am increasing this to a low confidence pick, but I would need at least Zach Tom to play for this line to be bettable.

Green Bay Packers 21 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Low

2025 Week 1 NFL Picks

131-85 ATS on Medium Confidence or Higher (Money Picks) in 2023-2024, 57.3% ATS all-time

Pick of the Week

DEN 20 TEN 17 (+8.5)

High Confidence Picks

NYJ 19 (+3) PIT 17 Upset Pick +130

ARZ 27 (-6.5) NO 13

Medium Confidence Picks

JAX 31 (-3.5) CAR 24

SF 24 (-1) SEA 20

IND 20 (-1) MIA 16

LV 26 (+2.5) NE 24 Upset Pick +125

MIN 27 (-1) CHI 23

Low Confidence Picks

CIN 24 CLE 20 (+5.5)

BAL 30 (-1) BUF 27

TB 27 (PK) ATL 24

KC 24 (-3) LAC 17

PHI 27 (-7.5) DAL 17

No Confidence Picks

WAS 27 (-6) NYG 20

LAR 20 HOU 17 (+3.5)

GB 27 (-2) DET 24

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) in Brazil

The Chiefs won 15 games and made the Super Bowl a year ago, but they didn’t have a lot of wins by big margins, with just three of their 17 victories coming by more than 10 points, six coming by more than 7 points, and six coming by 3 points or fewer, relevant considering this line is Kansas City -3. Including their three losses, just over half (11) of the twenty games the Chiefs played last season resulted in them winning by more than 3 points. 

There is potential for the Chiefs to win more games by bigger margins this season once their receiving corps gets to full strength, but they are going to be without their eventual #1 receiver Rashee Rice for the first six games of the season due to suspension. Rice missed most of last season with injury, but it’s worth noting that if you exclude the four games he played last season, the Chiefs won by more than 3 points in exactly half of their games, 8 out of 16. On top of that, the Chiefs have also lost talented guard Joe Thuney and top safety Justin Reid from last year’s team, though the addition of rookie left tackle Josh Simmons should somewhat offset the loss of Thuney.

Given all of that, it wouldn’t be wise to confidently bet the Chiefs as 3-point favorites in a neutral site against a decent Chargers team. My calculated line is exactly where the actual line is at -3. One thing working in the Chiefs’ favor is that the better team tends to cover in international games as they tend to be better prepared for the unusual circumstances, leading to favorites being 37-20 ATS in international games all time. However, I don’t think that is enough to be confident in the Chiefs covering this spread. The Chiefs are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a low confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 Week 1 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

The Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions at home in the first game of the season, which tends to be a good spot for teams, going 13-6-1 ATS since 2005. Unfortunately, we have lost significant line value in the last week, with this line moving from Philadelphia -6.5 to -7.5 in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade. Losing Parsons will be a huge loss for the Cowboys, but he was unlikely to play a significant snap count in this game and might not have played at all after a monthlong holdout, so that line movement, crossing over a key number of 7, seems like an overreaction.

As much as Parsons being traded is a big deal, the Eagles lost a lot this off-season as well and are unlikely to be as good as they were down the stretch last season as a result, particularly on defense, where five of the eleven players who played at least 500 snaps for them are no longer with the team, after being a league best unit in 2024. I am still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t bet them confidently as long as the line is a touchdown or more.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7.5

Confidence: Low

2025 NFL Season Previews

AFC East

Buffalo Bills 15-2*

New England Patriots 9-8

Miami Dolphins 7-10

New York Jets 6-11

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 16-1*

Cincinnati Bengals 10-7*

Pittsburgh Steelers 5-12

Cleveland Browns 2-15

AFC South

Tennessee Titans 7-10*

Indianapolis Colts 7-10

Jacksonville Jaguars 6-11

Houston Texans 6-11

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs 12-5*

Las Vegas Raiders 9-8*

Denver Broncos 9-8*

Los Angeles Chargers 8-9

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 12-5*

Washington Commanders 10-7

Dallas Cowboys 6-11

New York Giants 3-14

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 13-4*

Detroit Lions 12-5*

Minnesota Vikings 10-7*

Chicago Bears 4-13

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-4*

Atlanta Falcons 8-9

Carolina Panthers 3-14

New Orleans Saints 1-16

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 15-2*

Arizona Cardinals 11-6*

Los Angeles Rams 9-8

Seattle Seahawks 8-9

*Playoff Qualifier

AFC Wild Card Round

#2 Buffalo Bills over #7 Denver Broncos

#3 Kansas City Chiefs over #6 Las Vegas Raiders

#5 Cincinnati Bengals over #4 Tennessee Titans

NFC Wild Card Round

#2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over #7 Minnesota Vikings

#3 Green Bay Packers over #6 Arizona Cardinals

#4 Philadelphia Eagles over #5 Detroit Lions

AFC Divisional Round

#1 Baltimore Ravens over #5 Cincinnati Bengals

#3 Kansas City Chiefs over #2 Buffalo Bills

NFC Divisional Round

#1 San Francisco 49ers over #4 Philadelphia Eagles

#3 Green Bay Packers over #2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AFC Championship

#1 Baltimore Ravens over #3 Kansas City Chiefs

NFC Championship

#3 Green Bay Packers over #1 San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl

#1 Baltimore Ravens over #3 Green Bay Packers

Cincinnati Bengals 2025 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Bengals made the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season and then made it back to the AFC Championship game in 2022, but they have missed the post-season in back-to-back seasons since then. In 2023, the big issue was quarterback Joe Burrow not being healthy for most of the season, struggling through a calf injury at the start of the season and then missing the final seven games of the season with a wrist injury. In 2024, Burrow stayed healthy all season and played at an MVP level, completing 70.6% of his passes for an average of 7.54 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but the rest of this team struggled, particularly their defense, which ranked 17th in yards per play allowed and 28th in first down rate allowed.

In the 2020 and 2021 drafts, the Bengals got Joe Burrow and his elite wide receiver duo of JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins, but, since then, they have drafted poorly. Between 2022-2024, the Bengals had ten picks in the first three rounds and, thus far, none of them have developed into an above average starter, with eight of those ten picks being used on the defensive side of the ball. The result is a very top-heavy roster. The Bengals do have one other high-level player, edge defender Trey Hendrickson, but he is going into an age 31 contract year and, thus far, the Bengals have been unwilling to give him the contract he is asking for, which could result in the Bengals opting to trade him before the season starts, even though doing so would further weaken their defense.

Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are at least signed long-term, but the Bengals ended up having to pay Chase and Higgins significantly more this off-season than they would have if they had signed them last off-season. Chase and Higgins received contracts worth 40.25 million annually and 28.75 million annually respectively, making them the 1st highest and 9th highest paid wide receivers in the league in terms of annual value. Between those contracts and Joe Burrow’s 55 million annual contract, tied for second highest among quarterbacks, the Bengals are paying a lot of money to their three best players and, if they keep Hendrickson, that will be another massive contract on the books. For this team to be consistently competitive, they will need the rest of this roster to be filled out by talented players on rookie contracts, but the Bengals’ recent history of poor drafting has prevented that.

Burrow should at least continue playing at a high level in 2025, especially since he’s keeping his top two wide receivers. Over the past four seasons, Burrow has completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 127 touchdowns, and 41 interceptions in 59 starts. Still very much in his prime, going into his age 29 season, Burrow should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and beyond. The Bengals also have a good backup in Jake Browning, who only has seven career starts, all of which came in 2023, but he showed the ability to run this offense effectively, completing 70.4% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. It’s a small sample size, but Browning seems like a useful backup to have, though obviously the Bengals would be in a lot of trouble if Burrow suffered a significant injury.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

JaMarr Chase had the best season of his career in 2024, winning the receiving triple crown with a 127/1708/17 slash line on 175 targets, while averaging 2.41 yards per route run, tied for seventh among eligible wide receivers. That didn’t come out of nowhere either, as he averaged a 101/1404/11 slash line per 17 games with 2.19 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 25 season, the 2021 5th overall pick could easily be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. 

Higgins, meanwhile, had the second best season of his 5-year career in 2024, in terms of yards per game (75.9) and yards per route run (2.05), but he did miss five games with injury, which limited him to a 73/911/10 slash line on 109 targets. Injuries have been a concern for him for much of his career, as he’s missed at least three games in three of his five seasons in the league, including a 2021 season in which he had a 74/1091/6 slash line on 110 targets in just 14 games, giving him a career high 77.9 yards per game, in addition to having a career high 2.26 yards per route run that season. In total, he has averaged a 80/1116/8 slash line per 17 games with 1.95 yards per route run in his career and, still only in his age 26 season, coming off one of the best seasons of his career, he could easily exceed those averages again in 2025, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if he missed more time due to injury.

The rest of this wide receiver depth chart, however, is an example of the lack of depth on this roster. Andrei Iosivas was the #3 wide receiver last season, but he had just a 36/479/6 slash line on 61 targets, while averaging 0.84 yards per route run, similar to the 0.77 yards per route run that the 2023 6th round pick averaged in a smaller role as a rookie. Iosivas didn’t even step up in Higgins’ absence, with just 8 catches for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns in the five games that Higgins missed, games in which the Bengals went just 1-4. 

The Bengals used a third round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Jermaine Burton, who they were hoping would become the #3 receiver long-term, but he didn’t gain the trust of the coaching staff and barely played as a rookie, seeing just 131 snaps in 14 games, while averaging just 1.11 yards per route run when he did play. He still has a lot of upside though and could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but he’ll probably still start the season as the Bengals’ #4 wide receiver, despite Iosivas’ struggles as the #3 last season.

The Bengals did at least get a solid season out of starting tight end Mike Gesicki, who had a 65/655/2 slash line on 83 targets, while averaging 1.58 yards per route run. Gesicki also had slash lines of 53/703/6 and 73/780/2 and with the Dolphins in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while averaging a combined 1.52 yards per route run, but he fell to slash lines of 32/362/5 and 29/244/2 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, while averaging a combined 0.87 yards per route run. 

However, those struggles can easily be blamed on playing in an offense that didn’t use the tight end much in the passing game in Miami in 2022 and then playing on a bad offense in New England in 2023. His career seemed to get back on track in 2024 now in a more effective and tight end friendly offense in Cincinnati and he could remain a solid receiving tight end in 2025, though it is worth noting he is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon.

The Bengals don’t have bad depth at tight end, but all of their other tight ends have their issues. Tanner Hudson has averaged 1.66 yards per route run over the past two seasons, but plays sparingly and is now heading into his age 31 season. Erick All, a 2024 4th round pick, averaged 1.48 yards per route run as a rookie, but had his rookie season ended by a torn ACL after 231 snaps in nine games, which, coupled with his collegiate injury history, dampens his long-term projection and reportedly could cost him the entire 2025 season. 

Drew Sample ranked second on the team in routes run from the tight end spot last season, but he averaged just 0.46 yards per route run last season and has averaged just 0.73 yards per route run in six seasons in the league, so he would be best as a blocking specialist. The Bengals have a great wide receiver duo, probably the best in the league, and tight end Mike Gesicki is a good third option, but the rest of this group leaves something to be desired, which affects their overall grade slightly.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Probably the best player to come out of the Bengals’ recent drafts is running back Chase Brown, a 5th round pick in 2023. Brown started the 2024 season in a timeshare with veteran Zach Moss, after playing sparingly (93 snaps) as a rookie, but Moss went down for the season in week 8, leaving Chase Brown to have a heavy usage the rest of the way, averaging 23.6 touches (18.9 carries, 4.7 catches) per game in eight games without Moss, as compared to 11.8 touches (9.8 carries, 2.0 catches) per game in the eight games that Moss played.

Moss is set to return in 2025, but Brown drastically outplayed him last season, averaging 4.32 YPC to Moss’ 3.27 YPC, so it seems highly unlikely that they will go back to splitting carries, leaving Moss as purely a change of pace backup. Moss does have some bounce back potential, as the 2020 3rd round pick averaged 4.29 YPC on 484 carries in his first four seasons in the league, prior to struggling in 2024, but, even if he bounces back, he is best as a backup. He’s also missed at least three games due to injury in all five seasons in the league, with 23 games missed total.

The Bengals also added Samaje Perine in free agency and, while he will probably finish third on the team in carries, having averaged just 59.3 carries per season and 4.05 yards per carry in eight seasons in the league, he is a useful pass catcher, averaging 1.40 yards per route run as a receiver in his career, as opposed 0.85 for Moss, so he could be used in obvious passing situations and cut into Brown’s passing game opportunities, though Brown also has averaged 1.38 yards per route run in his career and should continue having a significant passing down role. Brown won’t see the same usage he had down the stretch last season, with Moss back from injury to spell him on early downs and Perine added to spell him on passing downs, but Brown is still the clear feature back, a role he should be at least solid in. 

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As much of a problem as the Bengals’ defense was last season and figures to still be in 2025, the Bengals’ offensive line is arguably just as big of a problem. Burrow obviously benefits significantly from the weapons he has in the passing game, but, even with those weapons taken into account, his production is especially impressive when you consider the offensive line he has in front of him. Last season, they ranked 29th in both PFF pass block grade and PFF run block grade and, going into 2025, there isn’t much reason for optimism.

One potential reason for optimism is the likelihood that they will get better seasons from their two starting tackles, Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims. They finished last season with PFF grades of 58.2 and 57.8 respectively, but Mims is a 2024 1st round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025, while Brown had previously never had a PFF grade worse than 66.1 in a season, with four seasons above 70 in his previous six seasons. Still only going into his age 29 season, Brown has obvious bounce back potential, especially if he is healthier, after missing six games last season. Even Mims and Brown don’t improve in 2025, both are locked into starting roles because the best alternative is Cody Ford, who has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a 50.6 PFF grade across 688 snaps in 2024.

Even if Mims and/or Brown are better in 2024 though, the Bengals still have a concerning situation on the interior of the offensive line. Cordell Volson and Alex Cappa were the primary starting guards last season and finished with PFF grades of 59.3 and 50.5 respectively. Cappa is no longer with the team, but his replacement Lucas Patrick is unlikely to be significantly better. Patrick had a decent 64.6 PFF grade last season, but that came in just 10 starts. Additionally, that was one of just two seasons out of nine seasons in the league in which he has finished above 60 on PFF, and he’s now going into his age 32 season. He’s also never made more than 15 starts in a season, with just 64 starts in nine seasons in the league, due to injuries and ineffectiveness, so he’s a desperation option as a season-long starter.

Volson, meanwhile, has made 48 starts in three seasons in the league since the Bengals took him in the 4th round pick in 2022, but he has finished with PFF grades in the 50s in all three seasons and, already in his age 27 season, he is unlikely to be better in 2025. The Bengals did use a third round pick in this year’s draft on Dylan Fairchild, who could push either Patrick or Volson for their starting job, but it’s far from a guarantee that he would be any better as a rookie.

Meanwhile at center, Ted Karras was the Bengals’ only regular starter to finish last season with a PFF grade above 60 and he has never finished below 60 on PFF in any of his nine seasons in the league, while starting 94 out of a 100 possible games over the past six seasons, but his 64.1 PFF grade in 2024 was still underwhelming and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so he could decline in 2025. Overall, this still looks like a very underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, Trey Hendrickson is by far the Bengals’ best defensive player. He isn’t a good run defender, but he has finished above 80 overall on PFF in three straight seasons despite his lack of run defense because he has finished above 90 in pass rush grade on PFF in each of those three seasons, while totaling 43 sacks, 48 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate in 49 games. He also combined for 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 31 games from 2020-2021, so he has five straight seasons of elite pass rush on his resume. His age is a concern, now going into his age 31 season, and there is a chance he isn’t even on the Bengals’ roster this season if they can’t come to terms with him on an extension, but, if he is on the roster, he should remain a very valuable edge defender even if he does decline, as he would be declining from such a high base point.

Aside from Hendrickson, the rest of this edge defender group was a big problem in 2024, as their next three edge defenders in terms of snaps played, Joseph Ossai (573 snaps), Sam Hubbard (521 snaps), and Myles Murphy (353 snaps), finished with PFF grades of 58.3, 58.9, and 56.5 respectively. Hubbard retired this off-season and will essentially be replaced by first round pick Shemar Stewart, who has a massive upside, but who is extremely raw and also currently involved in his own contract dispute with the team. Even if Stewart eventually comes to terms with the Bengals, which seems likely, given Stewart’s lack of options, he will still have missed valuable off-season work, which is especially a concern for a player who is so raw. I wouldn’t expect him to have a significant positive contribution in year one.

Myles Murphy is also a recent first round pick, selected 29th overall in 2023, but he has been a bust thus far in his career, finishing with PFF grades in the 50s in both seasons in the league, while averaging just 21.9 snaps per game. Equally ineffective as a run stopper and pass rusher, Murphy has just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate in 30 career games. The good news is he is still only going into his age 23 season and has significant untapped upside, so he could take a step forward, potentially a big step forward, in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Ossai, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick and will remain involved in the Bengals’ edge defender rotation in 2025. He did have a 68.4 PFF grade in 2023, but that came on just 177 snaps and it’s his only season above 60 on PFF in his career. Also a poor run defender, Ossai has managed just 9.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 47 career games. He’s also still relatively young, going into his age 25 season in 2025, so he could also have untapped upside and take a step forward this season, but that seems even less likely than Murphy taking a step forward. 

The Bengals also have 2021 4th round pick Cam Sample, who missed all of last season with a torn achilles, but who could be part of the rotation at the edge defender position in 2025. Sample was underwhelming in his first two seasons in the league in 2021 and 2022, with PFF grades of 52.1 and 58.0 on snap counts of 310 and 411 respectively, but he did take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023, with a 61.6 PFF grade across 375 snaps, though obviously that’s a small sample size and his 2024 injury complicates matters significantly. Stewart, Murphy, and Ossai have potential and it seems likely at least one will contribute in a significant way in 2025, but this is still an underwhelming position group outside of Trey Hendrickson, who significantly elevates the overall grade of this group for now, but might not even be on their final roster.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Outside of Hendrickson, the Bengals’ best defensive player might be interior defender BJ Hill, who had a 70.2 PFF grade across 710 snaps last season, his seventh season above 65 on PFF in seven seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70. Equally reliable as a run stopper and pass rusher, Hill has 23.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 112 career games. His age is a concern, as he’s now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but chances are he’ll remain at least a capable every down player in 2025.

Hill was the only Bengals interior defender to finish above 60 on PFF last season, but the Bengals do at least have a pair of second year players who were highly drafted and could take a step forward, as 2024 2nd round pick Kris Jenkins had a 45.4 PFF grade across 496 snaps as a rookie and 2024 3rd round pick McKinnley Jackson had a 53.0 PFF grade across 248 snaps as a rookie. It’s not a guarantee that either one improves in 2025, but there is a good chance at least one of them does, even if only to the level of being a capable rotational player.

The Bengals also added veteran TJ Slaton to the mix in free agency, but he’s an underwhelming option. The 6-5 330 pounder had decent years in 2022 and 2023, with PFF grades of 61.7 and 65.1 on snap counts of 333 and 627 respectively, primarily due to solid run defense, but he’s never been a good pass rusher, with a career pressure rate of 5.0%, and in 2024 he struggled as a run defender too, leading to a 45.3 PFF overall grade across 427 snaps. He has some bounce back potential as a situational run stopper, but he’s still an underwhelming option at a position group that still looks underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Top linebacker Logan Wilson is the other option for the Bengals’ best defensive player aside from Hendrickson. He had a solid 72.4 PFF grade in 2024, but he got hurt after 743 snaps in 11 games and missed the rest of the season, which was a huge blow to this defense. He’s been a solid every down linebacker for years though, with PFF grades of 72.7 and 62.6 on snap counts of 954 and 1,068 in 2022 and 2023 as well, and, still only in his age 29 season, he should remain a solid every down linebacker in 2025.

He’ll probably start next to second round rookie Demetrius Knight. Knight replaces Germaine Pratt, who had a 60.6 PFF grade across 1,075 snaps last season. Knight has a higher upside than Pratt, but isn’t necessarily an upgrade over Pratt in the short-term. The Bengals also have 4th round rookie Carter Barrett and veteran free agent addition Oren Burks, but Barrett is unlikely to make a significant positive impact as a rookie, while Burks has flashed potential with PFF grades of 79.2, 71.3, and 83.0 over the past three seasons, but only on snap counts of 156, 326, and 147 and he’s now going into his age 30 season, having started just 17 of 108 career games, so he is best as backup. This isn’t a bad position group as long as Logan Wilson stays healthy, but it isn’t a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Cornerbacks

Slot cornerback Mike Hilton was the Bengals’ highest rated cornerback by a wide margin last season, with a 75.9 PFF grade across 737 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season, ahead of his age 31 season in 2025, and he wasn’t replaced by a comparable veteran. Instead, the Bengals’ cornerback depth group is led by a bunch of recent draft picks that have yet to develop. Dax Hill probably has the highest upside of the bunch. 

A 2022 first round pick, Hill began his career at safety and struggled, playing just 130 mediocre snaps as a rookie and then receiving a 50.9 PFF grade across 1,089 snaps upon becoming a starter in 2023, but he seemed to do better when he moved to cornerback in 2024, with a 68.2 PFF grade, although that came in a very small sample size, as his season was ended by a torn ACL after 262 snaps in five games. Hill’s injury recovery complicates his long-term projection even more, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has always had talent, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he picked up where he left off in 2024, or even if he took another step forward.

DJ Turner was a second round pick in 2023. He struggled as a rookie with a 51.5 PFF grade across 827 snaps, but he took a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024 with a 67.8 PFF grade, albeit across only 508 snaps before his season was also ended by injury. He’s also an unproven commodity, but he has the talent to pick up where he left off before getting hurt last season, or even to get better, though obviously that’s not a guarantee.

Cam Taylor-Britt, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2022. He also struggled as a rookie, with a 56.1 PFF grade across 590 snaps, but he has been better over the past two seasons, though largely by default, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 63.6, while starting all 29 games he has played. Taylor-Britt, Turner, and Hill all have upside, but none of them have proven themselves as a consistently above average starter yet and there is no guarantee that happens in 2025. Meanwhile, Josh Newton, a 2024 5th round pick who had a 60.9 PFF grade across 504 snaps as a rookie, is likely to be their primary depth option.

At safety, the Bengals will start Geno Stone and Jordan Battle, who, a year ago, looked like they would be a good safety duo. A 7th round pick in 2020, Stone flashed potential with a 72.2 PFF grade across 450 snaps in 2022 and then seemingly broke out as an above average starter in 2023, with a 71.9 PFF grade across 950 snaps, but he declined significantly to a 53.1 PFF grade across 1,100 snaps in 2024. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and has bounce back potential, but there is no guarantee he returns to his 2023 form.

Battle, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and flashed a lot of potential as a rookie with a 82.5 PFF grade across 524 snaps, but he struggled in 2024 with a 53.1 PFF grade and ultimately spent his second season in the league primarily as a backup, playing just 464 snaps in 15 games behind veteran Vonn Bell, who had a 62.1 PFF grade across 705 snaps. Bell is no longer with the team, giving Battle a clear path to a starting job and he still has a high upside, only going into his age 25 season, but it’s tough to know what to expect from him, given the disparity between how he played in 2023 and how he played in 2024.

If Stone and Battle don’t bounce back, the Bengals don’t really have another good option. The only other safeties on the roster who have ever played a snap are 2022 5th round pick Tycan Anderson, who has played just one snap in his career, and 2024 7th round pick Daijahn Anthony, who has played just 12 snaps. They could move Hill back to safety if needed, but that would hurt their depth at cornerback and he has shown himself to be better at cornerback than safety anyway. Overall, this secondary has some upside, but also a lot of downside.

Grade: B-

Kicker

Evan McPherson struggled as the Bengals’ kicker last season, costing the Bengals 6.33 points compared to average, while also missing five games due to injury. He has been better in the past though, with 11.10 points above average in 2021 and 4.05 points above average in 2023, though he did also cost the Bengals 2.95 points compared to average in 2022. Still, he has been overall a solid kicker in his four seasons in the league and he is still only going into his age 26 season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The 2025 Bengals are a very similar team to the 2024 Bengals, a top-heavy roster with minimal depth behind their few stars. If they end up having to trade Trey Hendrickson, that problem will be even worse. However, if they keep Hendrickson, the Bengals could still sneak into the post-season, something they almost did in 2024. The Bengals are unlikely to make a deep playoff run even if they make the post-season though.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC North

Miami Dolphins 2025 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Dolphins fell from a 11-6 record in 2023 to a 8-9 record in 2024. The biggest reason for this by far was the decline of their offense, which went from ranking 2nd in yards per play and 5th in first down rate in 2023 to just 23rd in yards per play and 16th in first down rate in 2024. Part of the problem was quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed six games due to injury and, in his absence, a trio of quarterbacks, Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle, combined to complete just 63.5% of their passes for an average of 6.09 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

However, the Dolphins offense was not the same as 2023 even in games Tua Tagovailoa started. The biggest reason for that is the Dolphins completely changed their offensive philosophy. In 2022 and 2023, when Tagovailoa combined to complete 67.4% of his passes for an average of 8.51 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions in 30 starts, Tagovailoa had an average depth of target of 10.1 and 8.2 respectively. In 2024, that dropped to 6.1, while his time to throw dropped to the lowest in the league at 2.25. 

In 2022, the Dolphins had 66.5% of their targets go to wide receivers, second in the NFL, which continued into 2023, when 67.8% of targets went to wide receivers, third in the NFL, but in 2024, that dropped to 50.4%, just 27th in the NFL, while 23.1% of targets went to running backs, 3rd in the NFL, and 26.6% went to tight ends, 7th in the NFL. The result was Tagovailoa set a new career high in completion percentage at 72.9%, but his yards per attempt fell to 7.19, a significant drop off from 2022-2023.

Dolphins didn’t change their offensive play caller and had mostly the same personnel in their receiving corps in 2024 as they did in 2022 and 2023, so a huge shift like that was surprising and there are a lot of factors that explain it. Part of it was simply that the Dolphins wanted to prevent Tagovailoa from taking too many hits, as he has missed time with injury in four of five seasons in the league, with 20 games missed total and a concerning history of concussions. 

Keeping Tagovailoa from taking hits is a goal that was made harder by a decline in the Dolphins offensive line from 2023 to 2024, as they went from ranking 16th in PFF pass block grade and 18th in PFF run block grade in 2023 to 21st in PFF pass block grade and 28th in PFF run block grade in 2024, which I will get into more later. The decline of their offensive line is another reason why the Dolphins felt the need to get the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quicker and into the hands of running backs and tight ends, rather than letting plays develop downfield for wide receivers. Additionally, this offense saw a significant decline by #1 wide receiver and deep threat Tyreek Hill in 2024, which I will also get more into later. Hill’s decline further contributed to the Dolphins’ offensive philosophy shift.

None of those factors are likely to change in 2024. In fact, the Dolphins suffered more losses on the offensive line this off-season, Hill is now another year older, going into his age 31 season, and another injury plagued season by Tagovailoa is likely to further necessitate getting the ball out of his hands quicker, so this new offense is here to stay, despite the underwhelming results from a year ago. The Dolphins did at least find a new backup quarterback for Tagovailoa, signing Zach Wilson in free agency.

Wilson has potential, as a former #2 overall pick who is still only going into his age 26 season, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be much of an upgrade over what the Dolphins had at quarterback behind Tagovailoa last season. In 33 career starts, Wilson has completed just 57.0% of his passes for an average of 6.34 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, good for a QB rating of just 73.2. The Dolphins also used a 7th round pick on a developmental quarterback in Quinn Ewers, but he figures to spend his whole rookie season as the third string quarterback, unless something goes horribly wrong ahead of him on the depth chart. With Tagovailoa’s injury history and a shaky backup situation, there are definitely concerns in this quarterback room, even if Tagovailoa does have a high upside when everything is right.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Dolphins’ offensive line got worse from 2023 to 2024 and looks likely to get even worse from 2024 to 2025. Last off-season, the Dolphins lost right guard Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams to free agency. This off-season, the Dolphins lost left tackle Terron Armstead to retirement, ahead of what would have been his age 34 season in 2025. Armstead still had a 89.4 PFF grade in 15 starts last season (821 snaps), despite his age and a concerning injury history, so his loss will be massive for this offensive line.

In his place, the Dolphins will likely turn to Patrick Paul, a 2024 2nd round pick who was drafted to be Armstead’s successor, but who struggled mightily with a 44.9 PFF grade across 338 snaps (three starts) as a rookie. He actually spent his rookie season as the Dolphins’ 4th tackle, with veteran Kendall Lamm being the swing tackle, posting a 72.7 PFF grade in seven starts. Lamm is also no longer with the team, which further hurts their offensive line. Paul still has upside and could take a big step forward in his second season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, he will still be a massive downgrade from Armstead.

Paul will start opposite Austin Jackson. A first round pick in 2020, Jackson struggled to start his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of his first three seasons, but he has been better over the past two seasons, though his 60.0 PFF grade in 2024 was a noticeable dropoff from his 68.4 PFF grade in 2023. He also has missed time due to injury in four of five seasons in the league, with a total of 28 games missed in five seasons, including nine games missed last season, and, overall, he has not lived up to his draft slot. 

Jackson is still only going into his age 26 season, so he could have further untapped upside, but most likely he will remain a decent, unspectacular starter in 2025. He will probably stay at right tackle, but it’s possible the Dolphins opt to move him to the left side and start Paul at right tackle. Meanwhile, Larry Borom will likely be the swing tackle. He’s made 27 starts in four seasons in the league and finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 48.0 and 53.8 over the past two seasons and, even for a swing tackle, he’s an underwhelming option.

Center Aaron Brewer was the Dolphins’ second best offensive lineman last season, with a 74.1 PFF grade across 1,139 snaps (17 starts). That was a career best year for the 2020 undrafted free agent, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as he also had a 71.6 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, though he did have a 59.9 PFF grade in 17 starts in his first full season as a starter in 2022. Even being a former undrafted free agent, with the underwhelming 2022 season on his resume, he still figures to be an above average starter in 2025, off of back-to-back seasons, still only going into his age 28 season.

If there is one reason for optimism on this offensive line, it’s the addition of veteran guard James Daniels on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal. Daniels has finished above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league and was on his way to a career best year in 2024, with a 92.9 PFF grade through 209 snaps, but he tore his achilles early in week 4 and missed the rest of the season. Now coming off of a significant injury, it seems highly unlikely he will go back to the level of play he had to start last season, especially since it was such a small sample size and since his previous career best PFF grade was 71.8 in 2021. Daniels is still only in his age 28 season, so he could be a solid starter if he’s healthy, but that’s not a guarantee.

However, it wouldn’t be hard for Daniels to be an upgrade over Robert Jones, a free agent departure who had a 56.1 PFF grade across 17 starts at guard last season. The Dolphins also added Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round of the draft and he could start at the other guard spot, even as a rookie. He might struggle as a rookie, but it also wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Liam Eichenberg, who had a 53.1 PFF grade in 14 starts last season. 

Eichenberg could still be in the mix to keep his starting job if Savaiinaea isn’t ready to start week 1 and Eichenberg is also a former second round pick, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league (52 starts) and, already going into his age 27 season, he is running out of time to make good on the upside he came into the league with and would likely continue to struggle if the Dolphins needed him to start in 2025. The additions of Daniels and Savaiinaea do help the Dolphins at guard, but they don’t offset the loss of Terron Armstead at left tackle and, overall, an already mediocre offensive line from a year ago looks likely to be even worse this season.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, #1 receiver Tyreek Hill declined significantly in 2024, going from a 119/1710/7 slash line on 170 targets with 3.20 yards per route run in 2022 and a 119/1799/13 slash line on 171 targets with 3.82 yards per route run in 2023 to a 81/959/6 slash line on 123 targets with 1.75 yards per route run in 2024. Part of that is due to a reduced usage in the offense, but Hill also did not seem to be himself and saw his yards per target drop from 10.29 in 2022-2023 to 7.80 last season. Now going into his age 31 season, with the Dolphins’ new offensive philosophy here to stay, Hill is highly unlikely to bounce back to his 2022-2023 levels of production and could easily decline further.

Jaylen Waddle, the #2 receiver, also had a down year in 2024, going from a 75/1356/8 slash line on 117 targets with 2.59 yards per route run in 2022 and a 72/1014/4 slash line on 104 targets with 2.63 yards per route run in 2023 to a 58/744/2 slash line on 83 targets with 1.53 yards per route run in 2024. Unlike Hill, that is primarily due to the change in offensive philosophy, as Waddle is still only heading into his age 27 season and his 8.96 yards per target in 2024 is not too far off from his 10.72 yards per target average in 2022-2023. He will likely continue seeing a reduced role in 2025, but he’s still an above average #2 receiver who is in the prime of his career.

Tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De’Von Achane were the primary beneficiaries of the Dolphins’ new offensive philosophy. Smith, a free agent acquisition last off-season, set career highs in catches, yards, touchdowns, targets, and yards per route run, with a 88/884/8 slash line on 111 targets and 1.95 yards per route run, proving to be a great value on a 2-year, 8.4 million dollar deal. He was especially good in the 11 games Tagovailoa started, with a 62/626/5 slash line in those games, which extrapolates to a 96/967/8 slash line over 17 games. Unfortunately, Smith now wants a massive raise ahead of the second and final year of that deal and the Dolphins have been unwilling to give him that, leading to him holding out and wanting a trade if he and the Dolphins can’t come to an agreement. 

Smith had never exceeded 50 catches or 582 receiving yards in a season prior to last season and has a career average of just 1.57 yards per route run, so it’s understandable why the Dolphins wouldn’t want to pay top dollar for a player coming off of a breakout year in his eighth season in the league, especially with Smith now going into his age 30 season. However, he’s a big part of the offense, even if he regresses somewhat in 2025, and the Dolphins have another good option at tight end, so the Dolphins will ultimately have to hope they can come to a reasonable agreement with him, or risk having to trade away a key player from an offense that already has a lot of concerns.

Achane, meanwhile, ranked 2nd in the league among running backs with 87 targets last season, taking them for a 78/592/6 slash line and 1.45 yards per route run, ranking 1st among running backs in catches, 1st in receiving yards, 1st in receiving touchdowns, and 12th in yards per route run. That was a big increase from the 2023 3rd round pick’s rookie year, but he did show promise as a receiver in his first season in the league, with a 27/197/3 slash line on 37 targets and 1.12 yards per route run, so it’s not a huge surprise that he produced at the level he did with a significantly expanded opportunity in 2024. He will likely produce at a similar level in 2025 in a similar target share, potentially an even higher target share, given the state of the Dolphins’ offensive line, Tyreek Hill continuing to age on the wrong side of 30, and Jonnu Smith holding out.

Outside of Hill, Waddle, Smith, and Achane, the Dolphins have very little else in the receiving corps. Malik Washington was fifth on the team with just 36 targets and the nominal #3 wide receiver finished with a 26/223/0 slash line and 0.86 yards per route run. Washington was only a 6th round pick in 2024, so it’s not surprising he struggled as a rookie, but he’s not a guarantee to be any better in his second season in the league. He will compete with free agent acquisition Nick Westbrook-Inhine, who has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, for the #3 wide receiver role in 2025.

At tight end, the Dolphins’ other options behind Smith are 2023 undrafted free agent Julian Hill and veteran free agent addition Pharaoh Brown. Hill has averaged 0.53 yards per route run in his career and is a poor blocker as well, leading to him receiving PFF grades of 40.9 and 37.2 on snap counts of 343 and 515 in two seasons in the league, while Brown is a blocking specialist with 72 catches in 85 career games who is now heading into his age 31 season. Brown’s blocking ability likely gives him the edge for the #2 tight end job, but neither option is prepared to take over as the primary pass catching tight end if Jonnu Smith isn’t on the roster in 2025. The Dolphins have a good two wide receiver/one tight end trio, but this is a very top-heavy receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

In addition to having a big passing game role, De’Von Achane will have a big role on the ground. As a rookie, he was a change of pace back and missed six games to injury, limiting him to 103 carries, as opposed to 209 carries for Raheem Mostert, but in 2024, that flipped, as Achane played 17 games as the lead back and had 203 carries, while Mostert was limited to 85 carries in 13 games. Achane did see his yards per carry average drop off from 7.77 as a rookie to 4.47 last season, but it was always highly unlikely that he would continue that high average from his rookie year in a bigger role, especially as the Dolphins’ offense declined around him.

Achane was still much more effective last season than Mostert, who averaged just 3.27 YPC. Mostert wasn’t brought back this off-season, which could open up an even bigger role for Achane, though the Dolphins will probably want to avoid overloading the 5-8 188 pound Achane. Behind Achane on the depth chart, the Dolphins have 2024 4th round pick Jaylen Wright, veteran free agent addition Alexander Mattison, and 6th round rookie Ollie Gordon. Wright and Mattison figure to compete for the #2 running back role. 

Wright has the higher upside and figures to be the favorite for the backup job, but he was underwhelming as a rookie, averaging just 3.66 YPC on 68 carries and averaging just 0.10 yards per route run. Mattison has been underwhelming throughout his career though, averaging 3.90 YPC on 716 carries in six seasons in the league, with 0.99 yards per route run, so the Dolphins have to be hoping Wright can take a step forward in his second season in the league. The rookie Gordon, meanwhile, figures to start his rookie year as the #4 running back. Depth is a concern behind Achane, but Achane is one of the better all-around running backs in the league, posing a threat to defenses as a runner and a receiver.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Dolphins were solid on the defensive side of the ball last season, ranking 9th in yards per play allowed and 11th in first down rate allowed, but there are reasons for concern on this side of the ball as well. Of the 12 players who played at least 500 snaps for the Dolphins on defense last season, only five of them remain on the roster and one of those five is likely to not be on their team by the time the season starts. Some of these departed players were among their most important last season and, while the Dolphins did add some replacements, overall their replacements are not nearly as good as the players they lost.

One of those key players was Calais Campbell, who led the Dolphins’ defense with a 82.3 PFF grade, doing so on 616 snaps. Campbell excelled as a run defender, ranking first among interior defenders on PFF with a 85.9 run defense grade and he also added 5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. A lesser off-season departure is DaShawn Hand, who played 564 snaps last season and had a 60.5 PFF grade. To replace them, the Dolphins used a first round pick on Kenneth Grant, who has a big upside, but who is highly unlikely to be as good as a rookie as Campbell was last season. 

Grant will start next to Zach Sieler, one of the few good defensive players from last season who remains on this roster. Sieler finished with a 78.9 PFF grade across 749 snaps last season, playing equally well as a run defender and a pass rusher, with PFF grades above 70 in both aspects, including 10 sacks, 7 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. For Sieler, it was his third season above 70 on PFF in the past four seasons, but he is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, which is a significant concern, considering he is one of the few talented holdovers from 2024. Even if he doesn’t drop off significantly, a slight decline from him in 2025 would further hurt this defense.

With Hand also not being retained, the Dolphins could rely more heavily on Benito Jones as their top reserve in 2025, even though he had a 51.3 PFF grade across 481 snaps last season. That wasn’t anything out of the ordinary for Jones, who has never finished above 60 on PFF in five seasons in the league, including a career worst 37.4 PFF grade across a career high 566 snaps as recently as 2023. He figures to continue struggling in 2025, this time likely in a larger role.

Other reserve options include 5th round rookie Jordan Phillips, 7th round rookie Zeek Biggers, and free agent addition Matthew Butler, a 2022 5th round pick who has played 168 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league. All three are likely to struggle in a significant role in 2025 and there is a good one at least one of them has to play that significant role if any of their top-3 interior defenders misses time with injury. With Calais Campbell and Da’Shawn Hand gone and Zach Sieler now on the wrong side of 30, this position group looks significantly worse than a year ago, even with a first round pick in Kenneth Grant being added to the mix.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

If there is one reason for some optimism on this defense, it’s the fact that they are likely to be healthier, after having the seventh most adjusted games lost to injury of any defense in the league last season. Most notably, the Dolphins should get a healthier season out of edge defenders Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips was limited to 134 snaps in four games by a knee injury last season, his second straight seasons affected by a major injury, after a torn achilles ended his 2023 season and limited him to 366 snaps in eight games. 

Phillips had a 87.7 PFF grade in his last healthy season in 2022 and seemed to be on his way to a similar season in 2023, with a 79.8 PFF grade at the time he got hurt. Between 2022 and 2023, Phillips had 13.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 25 games. Still only going into his age 26 season, Phillips has obvious bounce back potential if he can stay healthy and return to form in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee, given his recent injury history.

Chubb, meanwhile, didn’t play a snap last season as he struggled to recover from a brutal knee injury suffered in week 17 of the 2023 season, which included a torn patellar tendon. He has now missed 43 games in seven seasons in the league and has had two significant knee injuries in his career, so there is no guarantee he ever returns to form. However, he has been a high level pass rusher throughout his career, with 39.5 sacks, 57 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 73 career games, and he had his best season in 2023 before getting hurt, with a 88.8 PFF grade and 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 16 games. He could be a useful player even at less than his best and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him.

In the absence of Phillips and Chubb, the Dolphins were led in snaps played at the edge defender position last season by Emmanuel Ogbah, who struggled with a 59.7 PFF grade across 734 snaps, particularly struggling as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate. Ogbah is no longer with the team, which could be addition by subtraction, especially if Phillips and/or Chubb stay relatively healthy and bounce back somewhat to form in 2025. 

The Dolphins also got a solid season out of 2024 1st round pick Chop Robinson last season, as he had a 70.0 PFF grade across 565 snaps as a rookie, while totaling 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Now going into his second season in the league, he could easily take a step forward and be even better in 2025. In a best case scenario, Chubb and Phillips stay healthy, play at or close to their prime form, and form a talented trio with Robinson, who takes a best step forward in his second season in the league, but a lot has to go right for that scenario to come to fruition. 

If any of those players miss time with injury in 2025, their depth outside of the top-3 is a concern. Aside from Robinson, Quinton Bell played the most snaps of any returning Dolphins edge rusher in 2024 and he had a decent 64.8 PFF grade, but the 2019 7th round is highly unproven, playing just 258 snaps last season, after playing just 61 snaps total in the first five seasons of his career. Other options include Mohamed Kamara, a 2024 5th round pick who played 26 underwhelming snaps as a rookie, and Cameron Goode, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 87 snaps in three seasons in the league. This group has a lot of potential upside, but also a lot of potential downside.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Dolphins also lost linebacker Anthony Walker this off-season, but he finished with just a 48.0 PFF grade across 516 snaps in 11 games last season, so his absence could be addition by subtraction. He will be replaced by Tyrel Dobson, who replaced Walker down the stretch last season, after being added mid-season. Dobson has had an interesting past two seasons. Dobson played 550 snaps in 2023 with the Bills as an injury replacement and excelled, with a 89.5 PFF grade, despite being a 2019 undrafted free agent who had previously played just 471 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, while never finishing above 60 on PFF. 

In 2024, Dobson signed with the Seahawks as a free agent and continue to play well in coverage, but his run defense dropped off significantly and he was ultimately let go mid-season for reasons that likely had to do with more than just football, as he had a 65.8 PFF grade across 603 snaps at the time of his release. The Dolphins then picked him up and he played about the same as he did in Seattle, with a 66.8 PFF grade across 251 snaps in five games. 

Dobson finished the 2024 season with a 67.3 PFF grade, which was a significant drop off from the year before, but he did play a new career high of 854 snaps, despite changing teams mid-season, and, in terms of coverage grade, he ranked 4th among linebackers on PFF at 82.9.  Now going into 2025, he seems likely to remain a high level coverage linebacker, still only in his age 27 season, but whether or not his run defense bounces back remains to be seen.

Dodson will start next to Jordyn Brooks, who was solid as an every down linebacker last season, with a 71.3 PFF grade across 1,039 snaps. That was a career best year for him though, as he had previously finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league. Brooks is a former first round pick and could just be a late bloomer, but it’s also very possible he regresses somewhat in 2025 and fails to repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

The Dolphins also added some depth options this off-season, signing veterans Willie Gay and KJ Britt in free agency. Gay was a second round pick in 2020 and showed some promise early in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of his first three seasons in the league, but he has fallen below 60 on PFF in each of the past two seasons, including a 44.1 PFF grade across just 277 snaps last season, which is why he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. Britt, meanwhile, struggled with a 44.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps last season in the first significant action of his career, after the 2021 5th round pick played just 234 snaps across the first three seasons in the league from 2021-2023. Both Britt and Gay would likely struggle if forced into a significant role by an injury to either Dodson or Brooks, but Dodson and Brooks are at least a solid starting duo.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Dolphins’ secondary is the group that lost the most this off-season. Both of their starting safeties from a year ago, Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer, are no longer with the team, nor is starting cornerback Kendall Fuller. None had a great season in 2024, but they all finished with PFF grades in the 60s and the players the Dolphins added to replace them are underwhelming. Additionally, the Dolphins are likely to be without top cornerback Jalen Ramsey this season, as he is expected to be traded or released prior to the start of the season, despite a 76.9 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. For the sake of this preview, I will project this unit as if Ramsey is not currently on the team.

Kader Kohou is the Dolphins’ top returning cornerback and he was decent with a 64.5 PFF grade across 708 snaps, but he is no one’s idea of a #1 cornerback, as he has played primarily on the slot and has received PFF grades in the 60s in each of his three seasons in the league. For outside cornerback options, the best the Dolphins have is mediocre holdovers Storm Duck and Cam Smith, mediocre free agent additions Kendall Sheffield and Artie Burns, and 5th round rookie Jason Marshall.

Smith probably has the most upside of the bunch, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2023, but he has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, playing just 155 snaps total. Last season, he was behind Storm Duck on the depth chart, even though Duck was an undrafted rookie who had just a 55.5 PFF grade across 359 snaps. Artie Burns was a first round pick in 2016 and showed promise early in his career, but he’s played just 938 snaps in his past seven seasons and now is heading into his age 30 season, so he’s only a desperation starting option. Sheffield, meanwhile, is a 2019 4th round pick who struggled with PFF grades of 47.5 and 40.3 on snap counts of 697 and 524 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and has since played just 169 snaps in four seasons in the league. It’s very possible the rookie Marshall will have to make starts for the Dolphins this season, even though it’s likely he would struggle if he did so.

At safety, the Dolphins are expected to start a pair of free agent additions in Ashtyn Davis and Ifeatu Melifonwu, both of whom are underwhelming options. Both are former third round picks, in the 2020 and 2021 drafts respectively, but neither have ever been a regular starter and neither have shown enough potential as reserves to give me confidence that they will be capable starters. Davis has averaged just 328 snaps per season in five seasons in the league, while making a total of just 22 starts, and Melifonwu has averaged just 219 snaps per season in four seasons in the league, while making a total of just 14 starts. Other options at safety include 5th round rookie Dante Trader and career special teamer Elijah Campbell, who has played just 284 defensive snaps in seven seasons in the league. This overall looks like arguably the worst secondary in the league.

Grade: C

Kicker

Jason Sanders is entering his 8th season as the Dolphins’ kicker. He has been inconsistent throughout his career, finishing below average in three of seven seasons, but he has overall accounted for 14.00 points above average in seven seasons in the league and he has had some great seasons, including a 2020 season in which he led the league with 13.91 points above average and a 2024 season in which he ranked 7th in the league with 7.66 points above average. It’s tough to know what to expect from him in 2025, but most likely he will be a slightly above average kicker, though not as good as he was a year ago.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Dolphins had significant losses this off-season, particularly on defense and, overall, look significantly worse as a team than they were a year ago. They could be healthier, after finishing with the 5th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league last season, but they still have a lot of key players with significant injury histories. They also will face a tougher schedule this season, after having the easiest opponents strength of schedule of any team in the league last season. Overall, it seems unlikely they will even reach last season’s win total of eight.

Update: The Dolphins did trade Jalen Ramsey and also Jonnu Smith as well, but they got back Minkah Fitzpatrick to upgrade their safety room and replaced Smith with Darren Waller, which isn’t a big downgrade. Overall, this team looks like they are in better shape than they were a month ago, but I would still expect them to finish below .500.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in AFC East